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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Novichok

Novichok

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Theresa May has just said that the nerve agent that poisoned Sergei Skripal and his daughter is a member of the Novichok series of nerve agents. Their action is similar to VX and Sarin, but more potent.

May has given the Russian Embassy 36 hours to respond. She wants Russia to make all its information on the Novichok series available to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which they should under their membership in the Chemical Weapons Convention. She stopped just short of accusing Russia of an act of war.

I had been wondering why it seemed to take some time for the agent to take effect. It seems to have been in Skripal’s house or on his wife’s gravestone, but Skripal felt its effects some time after he was at either of those places. At least one of the Novichoks seem to be solids. That would explain that time.

The message is as obvious as the attack on Alexander Litvinenko: We can hit you anywhere. Using a Novichok makes it clear that Russia did it. It will be interesting to see how Trump responds. I’m listening to Parliament’s debate. One of the members just said that they must ask the US for support.

Reader Interactions

268Comments

  2. 2.

    Corner Stone

    May has given the Russian Embassy 36 hours to respond. She wants Russia to make all its information on the Novichok series available to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which they should under their membership in the Chemical Weapons Convention. She stopped just short of accusing Russia of an act of war.

    Now let them enforce it.

  6. 6.

    Gin & Tonic

    Like I said downstairs, if the UK does anything other than stern words I will eat my hat. All that Russian money sloshing around London has strings attached.

  7. 7.

    Betty Cracker

    One of the members [of Parliament] just said that they must ask the US for support.

    Good luck with that, MP. The orange fart cloud won’t protect his own country from Russian attack. Why on earth would he protect yours?

  8. 8.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @David Anderson: May is walking a careful line. She almost called this an act of war, but isn’t going that far. So probably not Article 5. But NATO is part of Parliament’s discussion.

    “Any action to be taken – we must be sure it is action that will work.” May just now.

  9. 9.

    cmorenc

    Trump will cluck sympathetically about this, while deflecting and obfuscating any potential links to Russia. The 400 lb guy hacking in his bedroom line won’t work for this situation, but count on Trump to come up with some equally oblivious, stupid potential alternative possibility to Russian responsibility for committing this attempted assassination-by-nerve poisoning.

    Bottom line: Trump will offer Britain and May his warmest regards over this. Useful, concrete support – not so much.

  10. 10.

    But her emails!!!

    Because an LD50 of 10 milligrams (on skin) in a 70 Kg male just isn’t lethal enough.

  11. 11.

    Adam L Silverman

  12. 12.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Deputy of the Russian State Duma

  15. 15.

    Adam L Silverman

    @David Anderson: @Cheryl Rofer: There will be no Article 5 invocation. May, nor the other leaders of NATO, cannot risk invoking the communal self defense provisions and having the US ignore their action, let alone actively dismiss it. That would break NATO, which is what Putin and his assets wants.

  16. 16.

    kindness

    At some point somebody (not me) is going to take out Putin because they may fear for their own lives.

    Can’t happen soon enough and if it was up to me I’d like Trump’s kids to get blamed.

  17. 17.

    Feathers

    Her mention of “innocent civilians” is kinda creepy. Is she hinting Skripal and his daughter had it coming?

  19. 19.

    Corner Stone

    @David Anderson: May is in a tough spot, obviously. She has left quite a gap for Russia to squeeze through if they care to. I personally think they will bluster through this. And if Russia does go full denial then what is May going to do about it?

  20. 20.

    low-tech cyclist

    One of the members just said that they must ask the US for support.

    Trump will do the bare minimum that Congress forces him to do.

    And what would Mitch McConnell do, if he were here right now? He’d deregulate a bank or two, that’s what Mitch McConnell’d do. IOW, good luck in getting him or Paul Ryan to stand up to Putin and Trump.

  21. 21.

    TenguPhule

    and we will not tolerate such a brazen attempt to murder innocent civilians on our soil.”

    I wouldn’t be willing to take any wagers on that.

    May is the worst example of a female PM ever. Its like she was designed as the ultimate stereotype against women in politics.

  23. 23.

    TenguPhule

    @cmorenc:

    Trump will cluck sympathetically about this

    Trump: Oh why is poor innocent Russia being blamed for what could easily have been done by a 400 lb guy in his basement?

  25. 25.

    Corner Stone

    @TenguPhule:

    May is the worst example of a female PM ever. Its like she was designed as the ultimate stereotype against women in politics.

    I’m not sure I even want to know what this is supposed to mean.

  26. 26.

    TenguPhule

    @Adam L Silverman:

    cannot risk invoking the communal self defense provisions and having the US ignore their action, let alone actively dismiss it.

    Fuck me. Have we really reached this point?!

  27. 27.

    cmorenc

    @Corner Stone:

    @cmorenc:

    Trump will cluck sympathetically about this.

    I don’t see him saying anything about this at all.

    …not yet, because he wants more time to come up with a sympathetic response that avoids committing to blaming Russia or providing any actual useful action. The fact that it’s harder in this instance to credibly avoid pinning responsibility on Putin is likely pushing Trump to drag his feet on giving a response just yet.

  28. 28.

    Corner Stone

    @Roger Moore:

    It would be interesting to see what Trump would do if they invoked Article V.

    “We’re going to look very strongly into that, into doing something very, very strong with that.”

  29. 29.

    p.a.

    Fascinated/horrified in expectation of TraitotTrump admin’s Twister ™ act in response to this attack (among others, of course). As well as May’s gvt reaction to Trump’s (expected) non-response response.

  31. 31.

    Betty Cracker

    Trump will offer unoriginal thoughts and insincere prayers. The Alt-Left will point out that America kills people with drones.

  32. 32.

    smintheus

    @cmorenc:

    Bottom line: Trump will offer Britain and May his warmest regards over this. Useful, concrete support – not so much.

    Trump: “Our thoughts and prayers go out to the victims.”

  33. 33.

    TenguPhule

    @Corner Stone: It means that she’s the worst enemy any women who wants to make a name for herself in politics has ever had. She has all of Thatcher’s faults and none of that woman’s virtues.

  34. 34.

    Mike in NC

    US government to offer heartfelt thoughts and prayers for the Skripal family.

    The End.

  35. 35.

    Corner Stone

    @cmorenc: He hasn’t said word one about the initial poisoning, as far as I am aware. The US IC knows exactly what happened so if Trump needs more time on this it’s because he wants nothing to do with it. At all.

  36. 36.

    Mnemosyne

    @Feathers:

    I don’t know if I would go so far as May saying the Skripals had it coming, but they were at least rational targets, while everyone else around them were just randomly nearby. In general, it’s considered bad form to kill uninvolved civilians when you try to assassinate someone.

  37. 37.

    TenguPhule

    @low-tech cyclist:

    Trump will do the bare minimum that Congress forces him to do.

    I will take the under bet on that.

    Congress can’t force him to do shit. Remember the last round of sanctions?

  38. 38.

    Epicurus

    It has been blatantly obvious from the start that Putin’s thugs carried out this assassination attempt, and bravo to the PM for stating it out loud. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for Orange Julius Caesar to do anything about it, however.

  40. 40.

    Ryan

    Trump: It could have been Russia. It could have been China. It could have been a 210 pound former spy working as a freelance mercenary across Europe.

  42. 42.

    TenguPhule

    @Mnemosyne:

    In general, it’s considered bad form to kill uninvolved civilians when you try to assassinate someone.

    All of the normal rules seem to be increasingly tossed out of the window in the international arena.

    This promises to end badly.

  44. 44.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Feathers: Pretty sure she means “unrelated and uninvolved civilians”.

    Russia had reason to want Skripal dead. His daughter (perhaps) as well. But not other british citizens.

  45. 45.

    rikyrah

    DOMESTIC TERRORISM

    APD briefing regarding explosion in 4800 block of Oldfort Hill Dr
    TWO related porch package explosions (IEDs) –>10 days apart, two deaths, one survivor–>all “African-Americans,” may be serial hate crime homicides
    via Austin Police @YouTube @Austin_Policehttps://t.co/QCvrzbPhJO

    — EdieMarie?Trump?? (@ThankUGOD4Trump) March 12, 2018

    BREAKING: ATF National Response Team (NRT) will join @Austin_Police @FBI with the Austin, Texas explosives investigation. https://t.co/RCAIlXMCOC pic.twitter.com/uKaP0onb6S

    — ATF HQ (@ATFHQ) March 12, 2018

  46. 46.

    TenguPhule

    @Cheryl Rofer: Have you even bothered to follow May’s career and behavior at all? She’s the UK’s Trump, only with less excuse for being such a useless idiot.

  49. 49.

    oatler.

    Can we send a Marine up river take care of the Putin Problem with extreme prejudice? (without telling Trump)

  51. 51.

    rikyrah

    A provision in the House-passed Homeland Security reauthorization bill would allow Trump to send Secret Service agents to polling places on Election Day.

    This provision is not in the Senate version, & CANNOT stand when the bills get reconciled.https://t.co/efcMY1mnQb

    — Nick Knudsen ?? (@DemWrite) March 12, 2018

  52. 52.

    marcopolo

    OT but the last poll is out before the PA-18 special tomorrow:

    Lamb holds a 51% to 45% lead over Saccone if turnout yields a Democratic surge similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year. Another 1% opt for a third party candidate and 3% are undecided. Lamb also has the edge using a historical midterm lower turnout model, albeit by a much smaller 49% to 47% margin. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential electorate, gives Lamb a 51% to 44% advantage. This marks a turnaround from last month’s Monmouth poll of the race, when Saccone held a small lead in all the models – 49% to 46% in the surge model, 48% to 44% in the high turnout model, and 50% to 45% in the low turnout model.

    Here’s to being hopeful.

    As for the Russian nerve agent poisoning in England. I hope they don’t expect a lot of official support from the puppet gov’t in DC. Maybe our IC will provide aid and assistance on the down low but Drumpf won’t do anything. Maybe an appropriate countermeasure would be to do some of those things that the Obama admin thought about after the election but held back from–like shedding daylight on all of Putin’s financial information.

  57. 57.

    Uncle Cosmo

    Thx to Cheryl for the thread & the links.

    Damnittohell, I shoulda jumped in when first I heard of the Skripal poisoning, because the first word that leapt to mind was “Novichok”–one I heard bandied about by some mid-level US military officers around the turn of the millennium when I worked under contract with US Army Medical Research & Materiel Command (USAMRMC) out of Ft Detrick. I heard nothing more about it, except that it (more properly, we now know, the class of “its”) was spozeta be even nastier than VX (which is nasty enough).

    Let me hazard a guess that Vlad the Paler’s boychiks are playing a few different angles here. OT1H it does pretty much advertise “we did it & fuck you”, OTOH it also might be useful to determine if Detrick or Porton Down (UK CBD) have developed any treatment against the stuff, which would help them further refine the nastiness.

    (FWIW by “innocent civilian” May may be referring to Skripal’s daughter.)

  58. 58.

    TenguPhule

    @LAO:

    Who in London will be held responsible before the British people for groundlessly wrecking relations with Russia?

    The arrogance is breathtaking. They really believe there isn’t going to be blowback from this.

    FSM help us all if they’re right.

  61. 61.

    Betty Cracker

    @Adam L Silverman: I see Mr. Steele is on the hit list. Jesus. I wonder if Trump’s complete uselessness (or active excuse-making for Putin, should it come to that) on this score might be enough to inspire some folks in allies’ spy shops who hold certain highly sensitive material to strategically leak it…

  63. 63.

    MattF

    Russia will blame the ‘deep state’ US agencies that want to damage relations between Russia and Western Europe. And how better than by poisoning? There is a point of ‘cold war’ etiquette, though, that’s being disrespected– the elaborate exchange of spies that took place a few years ago turned out to be a real kabuki play after all.

  64. 64.

    MisterForkbeard

    @TenguPhule: I mean, it works with Trump. They screw us, then Putin insists they had nothing to do with it and Trump takes their word over that of his entire intelligence apparatus (and the media, and private industry, and common sense, and….)

    I mean, this playbook works so long as your target isn’t willing to do anything about it. I don’t think Britain is going to do much, but they’ll do something. Unlike us. But also unlike us, the UK doesn’t have a ton of ability to respond meaningfully. They can try to lead international sanctions and other actions and they have a good rallying cry for that, but alone they can’t do much. And it will be harder to build a coalition without US involvement, which is… halfhearted at best.

  66. 66.

    Brachiator

    @TenguPhule:

    May is the worst example of a female PM ever. Its like she was designed as the ultimate stereotype against women in politics.

    Huh? The UK and Europe has had plenty of women leaders. They can be judged without regard to their gender. Hell, Tony Blair was “Bush’s poodle.” The ultimate stereotype against men in politics.

    Also, in coming weeks, you might look to see what Home Secretary Amber Rudd says and does. And she has a reputation as being direct and tough. May’s Enforcer, as it were.

  68. 68.

    Stan

    “May says she will give Russia until end of tomorrow to respond to nerve agent attack against ex-Russian spy.”

    To be fair, in 1939 they gave the Nazis 24 hours to get out of Poland too.

  69. 69.

    dogwood

    @trollhattan:
    I hear ya. I don’t know when the final 6 episodes of The Americans are going to air, but they’re ending it just in time. Worrying about the fate of Russian spies in the Trump era is a tough sell, and a stark reminder of how quickly everything has changed.

  70. 70.

    Uncle Cosmo

    WHY THE FUCK IS WAS MY COMMENT “AWAITING MODERATION”????

    (Srsly, whud ah do wrong???)

  71. 71.

    Stan

    I am so ashamed that we are not standing shoulder-to-shoulder with our closest ally. It is time to fire a figurative shot across Putin’s bow, but of course we lack a leader with the brains and nerve to do the right thing.

  72. 72.

    trollhattan

    @rikyrah:
    Gee, wonder how many Republican majority district polling places would get this special attention? I have zero, anybody else have zero?

    Thumpingly stupid idea to begin with, given how much manpower would be required to do the job.

  73. 73.

    Adam L Silverman

    @TenguPhule: Yes. The first attempt by Putin to have this happen was when he sacrificed a pair of fighter jets to the Turkish Air Force. I think the play was to have Turkey invoke and the President to reject the invocation. The Turks didn’t, so a wasted effort. One of Putin’s greatest desires is to have NATO come apart. If the maskirovka, and make no mistake that that is what this is, can be executed in such a way as to make it look like NATO came apart solely because of NATO internal dysfunction between the US and the other members, so much the better.

  75. 75.

    Roger Moore

    @Ryan:

    Trump: It could have been Russia. It could have been China. It could have been a 210 pound former spy working as a freelance mercenary across Europe.

    It could have been Jews or Tatars or Kazakhs who just happen to be Russian citizens.

  76. 76.

    jl

    @Brachiator: May’s pretty bad, but I don’t see how it has anything to do with gender. Her party is pretty bad, and she seems to believe in the nonsense that makes her party bad.

    As for Trump, he doesn’t need to respond. He’s already made himself clear on how he feels about the brutal lawless tactics of anti-democratic strongmen, from Duterte, to Erdogan, to the man himself Putin. And recently was admiring China’s Xi gambit to become president for life.

  79. 79.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Uncle Cosmo: Early on, May said that the agent wasn’t VX or Sarin, but “extremely rare.” That pointed to a Novichok, and now she’s confirmed it.

    Treatment is similar to treatment for VX and Sarin. I don’t think they have anything new. From what I understand, Skripal and his daughter will never be back to normal, if they live.

  80. 80.

    TenguPhule

    @Brachiator:

    Huh? The UK and Europe has had plenty of women leaders. They can be judged without regard to their gender. Hell, Tony Blair was “Bush’s poodle.” The ultimate stereotype against men in politics.

    Sorry, looks like my comment is being interpreted badly.

    And actually Cameron and Boris Johnson may be the ultimate stereotypes against men in politics after Trump. At least May didn’t pork a dead pig’s mouth.

  81. 81.

    Zuleika

    I’m a longtime lurker, and this is my first comment: I want to thank Cheryl Rofer and Adam Silverman for all the expertise they bring to this site. They invariably write informative posts and comments that are so clearly and carefully reasoned that I always benefit from reading them. Since both are active in this thread, and I am perhaps ready to leave lurkdom behind, I am taking this opportunity to state my feelings.

  82. 82.

    Adam L Silverman

    @TenguPhule: Apparently once the FSB started freelancing to get Putin’s attention, the professionals at SVR and GRU threw out the regs so as not to look weak.

  85. 85.

    marcopolo

    @MisterForkbeard: Actually, if I recall Britain (London specifically) is a place where Russian oligarchs really really like to do a lot of their financial stuff. That was prior to brexit and I am aware that London’s position in international finance has suffered as a result but I assume there are quite a few Russian assets that could be frozen in the UK.

  88. 88.

    Adam L Silverman

    @rikyrah: Yep:
    https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/2-Deadly-Package-Bombs-Austin-476566033.html

    Police are responding to another explosion in Austin that badly injured a woman, hours after a package bomb killed a teenager and wounded a woman in a different part of the city.

    Austin-Travis County EMS tweeted that an explosion Monday in southeast Austin injured a woman in her 70s, who has been hospitalized with potentially life-threatening injuries. A second woman from that address has been hospitalized with an unrelated medical issue.

    Authorities have not said whether the most recent explosion was caused by a package bomb like the one that exploded earlier Monday about 5 miles away, or another earlier this month.

    Police Chief Brian Manley said at a news conference Monday — before the third explosion — that investigators believe the deadly package blast Monday is linked to a March 2 package bomb that killed a 39-year-old man in another part of the city.

    In each case, Manley said, the package bombs were left on the victims’ front doorsteps and not delivered by a mail service. He said the U.S. Postal Service doesn’t have a record of delivering a package to the Austin home where the explosion occurred Monday. He said that package was brought into the kitchen where it detonated, killing a 17-year-old boy and injuring the woman.

    The March 2 explosion occurred about 12 miles (19 kilometers) north of Monday’s blast. Both explosions occurred in the early-morning hours.

    The chief said all of the victims have been black and that investigators are considering whether race could have factored into the attacks.

    Police haven’t discussed the third explosion.

    The FBI is helping Austin police in the investigation.

  89. 89.

    Adam L Silverman

    @LAO: Some fine folks at Russia’s embassy in London are going to get persona non grataed.

  92. 92.

    Lyrebird

    @TenguPhule:

    Sorry, looks like my comment is being interpreted badly.

    Yes. It sure sounds rotten. May can be awful without needing to be a standard bearer for all women, even all awful women in politics, esp since we’ve had Palin on the national stage.

  95. 95.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Amir Khalid: Right. I took this to mean that other civilians were possibly exposed by this latest attempt, as was reported by british news media.

  96. 96.

    patrick II

    I have read both in comments and front page posts here and other places that Donald Trump should not be called a traitor because he does not fit the legal definition of a traitor since Russia is not a declared enemy in a war against the United States. Since the United States has not had a Congressional Declaration of War since WW II yet we have fought numerous wars, I am not sure what a country has to do to be an “enemy” in the legal sense for someone to be called a traitor.

    From James Risen’s “Is Donald Trump a Traitor” at The Intercept:

    In Article 3, Section 3, the U.S. Constitution states that “treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort.”

    Based on that provision in the Constitution, U.S. law – 18 U.S. Code § 2381 – states that “[w]hoever, owing allegiance to the United States, levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere” is guilty of treason.

    We think of wars as bombs and armies doing physical violence and really would only expect a declaration of war under those extreme circumstances. But that leaves us vulnerable to someone like Putin who is operating in the gray areas. He is not fighting a traditional war, but a new kind, using assassination and bribery and undercutting our interests wherever possible (for instance Kim Jong Un’s rocket motors are from disassembled Russian missles). And importantly he is using propaganda on a broad scale to sow hate, distrust, dissension, and confusion while at the same time attacking our voting system and aiding a functional fascist in his bid for the presidency.
    And not just here, but in all of our democratic allies in Europe and even in Australia and New Zealand.
    We need to recognize Russia, and Putin in particular, is waging a war against us by means of anything short of us having to declare war on them. And in doing so they are our enemies, and the question is can the legal system adjust to the new reality and can the rest of us stop pussyfooting around from calling Donald Trump what he is — a traitor.

  97. 97.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Uncle Cosmo: My understanding is 21 people were hospitalized as a result of exposure. So it might have been a reference to them as well.

  99. 99.

    LAO

    "This is a circus show in the British parliament." Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, on Theresa May's speech today.— Ellen Barry (@EllenBarryNYT) March 12, 2018

  100. 100.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @Adam L Silverman:
    Rightfully so. Any country that cares about internal security and the welfare of its own citizens would react this way. Unfortunately for the UK, the days of the BE are way behind them. Russia isn’t what it was either, but still powerful enough to cause some major destruction. I wonder what would happen if a Russian puppet wasn’t in the White House right about now? Probably more sanctions.

  101. 101.

    Roger Moore

    @marcopolo:

    I assume there are quite a few Russian assets that could be frozen in the UK.

    The problem is that the UK is afraid of what will happen to their banking sector if they drive away those Russian oligarchs. I honestly think it would be good for the country as a whole in the long term- they’ve become so dependent on financial services that it’s making the rest of the economy uncompetitive- but nobody wants to take the short-term hit.

  102. 102.

    TenguPhule

    @Lyrebird:

    Yes. It sure sounds rotten.

    I didn’t mean it to come off that way. She’s just really really awful. If she were a man. she’d be Donald Trump Jr.

    The UK conservatives are like a future preview of the Republican party.

  104. 104.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @LAO:

    “This is a circus show in the British parliament.” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova

    I’m sorry, Putin mouthpiece says what?

  105. 105.

    cwmoss

    @jl: Also too, Trump is owned by Russian mobsters. That’s always been my suspicion about why he is so timid toward Russia. They fucking own the paper on that guy.

  107. 107.

    TenguPhule

    @Roger Moore:

    The problem is that the UK is afraid of what will happen to their banking sector if they drive away those Russian oligarchs.

    Especially since they’re losing so much of that banking money thanks to the Brexit disaster.

    Losing their passporting to the EU couldn’t come at a worse time.

  108. 108.

    different-church-lady

    It will be interesting to see how Trump responds.

    “Can we get some of that stuff too?”

  109. 109.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @TenguPhule:

    The UK conservatives are like a future preview of the Republican party.

    No, the United Russia party is a future preview of the Republican party.

  110. 110.

    TenguPhule

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Poisoning an ex-spy with a nerve agent in the UK right before hosting a major international sporting event is a weird move for a strategic genius.

    If he gets away with it, it will be genius for him. He’ll have shown that he’s got the number of the entire West and Bob’s his fucking uncle.

  112. 112.

    ? Martin

    @Cheryl Rofer: That’s a risky move. She’s giving Russia all the power here to choose their preferred result. I’d bet anything they won’t respond forcing her to walk back her threat since Russia knows that she won’t be able to get the US on board.

    Man, the dictators are just dunking on the democracies this week.

  113. 113.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Cheryl Rofer: So Putin’s response is “Please be more clear about what you mean when you say you want us to reveal our poisoning program to you after we killed civilians with it in the UK.”

    Got it.

    Maybe he’s asking for additional clarity on consequences? If so, that’s kind of ballsy. Yeah, but what’re you gonna DO about it?

  114. 114.

    zhena gogolia

    @Gin & Tonic:

    When I saw the post title “Novichok,” I thought it was going to refer to some member of Trump’s foreign-policy team.

  116. 116.

    TenguPhule

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?:

    I wonder what would happen if a Russian puppet wasn’t in the White House right about now? Probably more sanctions.

    Our CIA could have been very effective under Hillary Clinton. Especially given the number of people apparently compromised by Russia.

  120. 120.

    Ridnik Chrome

    @TenguPhule:

    It means that she’s the worst enemy any women who wants to make a name for herself in politics has ever had. She has all of Thatcher’s faults and none of that woman’s virtues.

    I’m amazed that you’re willing to credit Thatcher with possessing virtues. Just out of curiosity, in your opinion, what were they?

  121. 121.

    TenguPhule

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?:

    No, the United Russia party is a future preview of the Republican party.

    You haven’t read up on the UK conservatives. They’re somehow both stupider and bigger assholes then the majority of the current Republicans. And I really didn’t believe that was possible.

  122. 122.

    Fair Economist

    @Feathers:

    Her mention of “innocent civilians” is kinda creepy. Is she hinting Skripal and his daughter had it coming?

    That’s my read too. It sounds like she’s bending the knee to Putin, and just asking him to think about keeping up appearances during assassinations.

  124. 124.

    Humdog

    @Feathers: That is what I thought too. Come kill your former Russian citizens, if you like, but we draw the line at our bloodline. Nice, Teresa, you showed your inner Brexiter.

  125. 125.

    Bruce K

    There’s one possibility that’s not being talked about: I’ll bet that MI6 has a sanitized-for-asset-protection dossier on Trump’s various misdeeds by now (one that’d make the Steele Dossier look like a case of cheating at tiddlywinks), and that it’s either being prepared right now for delivery to British diplomats in the US, or it’s already in the hands of British officials Stateside, ready to be couriered to Bobby Three Sticks’ office at the drop of a hat.

    Another thing flitting through my mind that’s more than a little scary: if this bears out, it’s an attack with weapons of mass destruction, and I seem to recall somewhere that NATO considered chemical and biological weapons to be morally equivalent to nuclear weapons, and that their response would not involve the biological or chemical type of WMD’s…

  126. 126.

    TenguPhule

    @Ridnik Chrome: She had some political awareness and was fairly intelligent, though ruthless and amoral. And she was tough, she didn’t get the nickname Iron lady for nothing.

  127. 127.

    The Dangerman

    It will be interesting to see how Trump responds.

    Probably as he always has done (bang another random porn star).

    All things considered, I’m surprised it’s never come out that Trump paid for an abortion. I’m not saying that’s wrong; I’m saying that’s the only thing that could sink him with his base. OK, that and do anything to actually take guns away; even his tepid steps so far since Florida has pissed off his base.

  131. 131.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Betty Cracker: I don’t know. As I’ve stated repeatedly: when those members of allied and partner country’s intel communities feel that the only way to protect their own countries and interests is to leak, they will leak. How they calculate that I do not know.

  132. 132.

    Fair Economist

    @Brachiator:

    Hell, Tony Blair was “Bush’s poodle.”

    I was watching a 2009 Frontline recently and that made *both* of them look like Prince Bandar’s poodle. (Specifically, both eagerly assisted covering up a multibillion dollar bribery scandal with Prince Bandar as the principal.)

  133. 133.

    TenguPhule

    @Adam L Silverman: So now they’ve decided to up their game and see how much more they can get away with.

    Isn’t this how the mafia moves in and takes over in the movies?

  135. 135.

    Mnemosyne

    @The Dangerman:

    Even that won’t sink him with his base, because they’ve done the same thing. He’ll just say that it was the past and now God has convinced him that it was wrong, and all will be forgiven.

  136. 136.

    smintheus

    @Cheryl Rofer: Removing the World Cup from Russia would be an excellent way to punish Putin. And if FIFA refused to do so, removing control of the World Cup from FIFA would be well deserved and long overdue. FIFA beclowned itself in ’78 when it played footsie with the Argentine dictators, and it has done nothing since then to redeem itself.

  137. 137.

    The Moar You Know

    You haven’t read up on the UK conservatives. They’re somehow both stupider and bigger assholes then the majority of the current Republicans. And I really didn’t believe that was possible.

    @TenguPhule: The sole difference – and it’s not a small one – is that the religious element is largely absent with their conservatives. Going all-in for Taliban Jesus is an unforgivable social offense in the UK…they think it makes you look like an idiot hick American. Just not done. Finding out that he was an American-style evangelical was what destroyed Blair’s career for good.

    But yeah, hoo boy, the Conservative party in Britain are horrible folks, by and large.

  140. 140.

    Fair Economist

    @Adam L Silverman: I don’t think it would actually break NATO if Britain invoked assistance and the traitor in chief exposed himself by refusing. The population, and even Congress, would still strongly support Britain. It would produce a crisis in the US.

  141. 141.

    TenguPhule

    @Adam L Silverman:

    the only way to protect their own countries and interests is to leak

    I know there’s supposed to be a gentleman’s agreement about taking direct action inside allied countries, but at this point, when Russia is showing that the old rules no longer apply, when does it change from leaking to something more energetic?

  142. 142.

    Gin & Tonic

    @smintheus: The only effective sanction is to remove them from SWIFT, and with Trump in the WH, that won’t happen.

    I was a little distracted before, since one of the Taboola ads showed me a picture of Christina Hendricks and, well, you know…

  143. 143.

    Roger Moore

    @The Dangerman:

    All things considered, I’m surprised it’s never come out that Trump paid for an abortion. I’m not saying that’s wrong; I’m saying that’s the only thing that could sink him with his base.

    They would find a way to rationalize it. If they can rationalize paying hush money to his porn actress mistress, they’ll find a way to rationalize him paying for an abortion.

  144. 144.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @TenguPhule:
    I really wish I could take that asshole Putin for a flight over Moscow by his lapels. Scare the shit out him.

    He doesn’t care one lick about the lives of others or even the long-term welfare of humanity. What we’re looking at is what would happen if organized crime seized control of a largish nationstate and is now trying to export it’s model to the the rest of the world. It’s the exact opposite of what the US has imperfectly tried doing for the last half-century.

  147. 147.

    Barbara

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Like I said downstairs, if the UK does anything other than stern words I will eat my hat. All that Russian money sloshing around London has strings attached.

    And where will the Russian oligarchs go with their money if London becomes inhospitable? Obviously, there are individuals who don’t want to bite the hand that feeds them, but I am getting tired of the idea that the oligarchs hold all the cards here. They want their money to go to friendly law abiding countries for a reason.

  149. 149.

    ? Martin

    @Bruce K:

    Another thing flitting through my mind that’s more than a little scary: if this bears out, it’s an attack with weapons of mass destruction, and I seem to recall somewhere that NATO considered chemical and biological weapons to be morally equivalent to nuclear weapons, and that their response would not involve the biological or chemical type of WMD’s…

    Talk is cheap. Russia just got done shoving the UK and the US out of their political orbits and we did nothing – didn’t even put an end to the efforts. NATO is no longer relevant and poses no threat to Russia, and Putin knows it. He’s just waiting for the rest of us to catch up on that.

  150. 150.

    Roger Moore

    @Mnemosyne:

    He’ll just say that it was the past and now God has convinced him that it was wrong, and all will be forgiven.

    Or it was the evil woman’s idea and she blackmailed him into paying. You can never go wrong with Evangelicals by playing the evil woman gambit.

  151. 151.

    TenguPhule

    @Barbara:

    And where will the Russian oligarchs go with their money if London becomes inhospitable?

    Uh, here in the USA?

  154. 154.

    Mnemosyne

    @Barbara:

    Friendly law abiding companies that have good healthcare and schools, to boot.

    That’s why I keep saying that the American oligarchs trying to destroy the US are shitting where they eat. When they get cancer, do they think that Russia or Brazil or even New Zealand has a Mayo Clinic?

  155. 155.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Bruce K: Actually I discussed this last week. The QCHQ has all the SIGINT intercepts – sources, methods, transcripts, and audio – of Trump campaign and Trump Organization contacts with the Russians during the campaign. The head of GCHQ hand carried this to DC and gave it to the Director of Central Intelligence in 2016.
    https://balloon-juice.com/2018/03/05/just-a-quick-note-on-the-russia-investigation/

    Robert Hannigan, then the head of the U.K.’s intelligence service the G.C.H.Q., had recently flown to Washington and briefed the C.I.A.’s director, John Brennan, on a stream of illicit communications between Trump’s team and Moscow that had been intercepted.

    I cannot emphasize how important this is. While this has been reported and/or alluded to in other reporting, what Mayer is unequivocally stating is that the head of Britain’s equivalent of the NSA hand carried the signals intelligence (SIGINT) of communications between the Trump campaign and/or Trump organization with the Russians. Moscow in this sentence means Russian government, not just people living and/or working in Moscow. This is important because it means that counterintelligence task force that Director Comey set up, and that Special Counsel Mueller inherited, has had the actual communications captured by British intelligence. Thanks to our British allies, from the start of his investigation, Special Counsel Mueller and his team have known exactly who from the Trump campaign and/or businesses were in touch with Russian officials and what they said to each other. So when you see reporting on Mueller’s investigation or what he is seeking in subpoenas, just keep in mind that the Special Counsel has known a lot about the who, the what, and the when since he started. What he and his team have been doing is fleshing this out. Mapping the overall network. Determining the directions of influence. And, of course, following the money.

  156. 156.

    Corner Stone

    @Gin & Tonic:

    The only effective sanction is to remove them from SWIFT, and with Trump in the WH, that won’t happen.

    Isn’t that effectively an act of war in itself?

  157. 157.

    Adam L Silverman

    @TenguPhule: At this time there is little to no distinction between the Russian government, Russian intelligence services, and Russian organized crime. Three facades, one organization.

  159. 159.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Fair Economist: It would break NATO. I’m not saying this to be hyperbolic. I’m saying this as someone who has spent a lot of time working with, teaching, supporting, and even advising NATO allies.

  160. 160.

    TenguPhule

    @Adam L Silverman:

    At this time there is little to no distinction between the Russian government, Russian intelligence services, and Russian organized crime.

    I swear this is like something right out of the Shadowrun RPG.

  162. 162.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @? Martin:
    That can always be changed. Not trying to sound glib, but vote Trump and the GOP out and you’re already a good chunk of the way there.

  163. 163.

    Brachiator

    @The Moar You Know:

    The sole difference – and it’s not a small one – is that the religious element is largely absent with their conservatives. Going all-in for Taliban Jesus is an unforgivable social offense in the UK…they think it makes you look like an idiot hick American. Just not done. Finding out that he was an American-style evangelical was what destroyed Blair’s career for good.

    But yeah, hoo boy, the Conservative party in Britain are horrible folks, by and large.

    Of course, Theresa May had to make a deal with the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in order to retain power, and these nutters are near-evangelical. The DUP opposes same-sex marriage and is anti-abortion.

  164. 164.

    Roger Moore

    @TenguPhule:

    I know there’s supposed to be a gentleman’s agreement about taking direct action inside allied countries, but at this point, when Russia is showing that the old rules no longer apply, when does it change from leaking to something more energetic?

    If the other country refuses to follow through on its commitments, is it really an ally anymore?

  165. 165.

    Yutsano

    @Mnemosyne: New Zealand does have excellent hospitals. I think there is a limit on how long you have to be in the country before their medical system will pick you up even if you buy your way in. And something tells me the Kiwis don’t want that mess anyway.

  168. 168.

    Ridnik Chrome

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?:

    What we’re looking at is what would happen if organized crime seized control of a largish nationstate and is now trying to export it’s model to the the rest of the world.

    Gangster capitalism taken to its logical conclusion.

  169. 169.

    Kay

    @Mnemosyne:

    Business people have managed to pretend otherwise, but they are REALLY dependent on a functioning legal system with contract enforcement and property rights protections. They may not like this world they’re creating where one or another dictator tells them to fuck off when they try to get paid or seizes their assets.

    There is no bigger beneficiary of orderly legal systems and process than people who want to make money. Bannon with all his revolutionary bullshit expects his property and contract rights to be enforced. He better pray he fails at creating chaos.

  170. 170.

    MisterForkbeard

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?: On the plus side, incidents like this (and the continuing revelations of Russia interference) would allow for an enterprising UK politicians to call for a re-vote on Brexit, basically saying Russia tainted the election to further it’s own policy goals and the results can’t be trusted. In the words of The Dude, “New shit has come to light.”

    Probably not going to happen, but all this crap gives governments across the world an excuse to actually call the Russians out on this stuff officially, as opposed to the nice diplomatic speak we’ve had so far.

  171. 171.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @Ridnik Chrome:

    I know Autocracy Promotion isn’t something FP experts believe is happening here, but I think something like it is. The rule of law is a concept that stands in opposition to the goals of Putin and his minions as well as other global oligarchs and dictators. It prevents them from simply executing whoever they want and seizing whatever they want. Democratic entities such as the US and the EU are a threat to expanding profits as well as Putin’s power, so they had to be dealt with. Exporting the lawlessness that permeates places like Russia is goal numero uno because it will allow Putin and others more power and money, the desires and rights of foreign nationals be damned.

  172. 172.

    Roger Moore

    @MisterForkbeard:
    AFAIK, though, the EU has said invoking Article 50 is irrevocable, so the UK can’t back out even if it wants to. Or rather, if it tries, the rest of the EU is likely to demand concessions (i.e. giving up on all the special UK exceptions) as a condition of backing out.

  173. 173.

    No Drought No More

    It’s shameful to be forced to hear the truth spoken by the British Prime Minister, and not by a POTUS.

    Also: (courtesy of the Boston Globe via C.Pierce esq.): “President Trump would be able to dispatch Secret Service agents to polling places nationwide during a federal election, a vast expansion of executive authority, if a provision in a Homeland Security reauthorization bill remains intact”.

    Trump is actually a moderating voice within the GOP on this insurrectionist strategy. You can bet America’s ass that if Dick Cheney (et.al.) had his way, the polling places would instead be “policed” by Eric “Blackwater” Prince (future fish in a federal lock-up), the same goons that were contracted to “police” New Orleans as it drowned.

  175. 175.

    Kelly

    @Mnemosyne: I suspect American oligarchs think they’ll best the dictators and oligarchs from shithole countries just as the gun nuts think they’ll win all the gunfights. Oh and they they figure there will always be a Mayo Clinic for them.

  176. 176.

    ChrisS

    So I keep seeing that this Russian money is sloshing around everywhere. I’m not a high finance guy, but why do Russian oligarchs need to launder this much money in foreign countries if, tacitly, the Russian state is friendly to oligarchs and whatever they wish to do?

  177. 177.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @Roger Moore:
    I think that’s foolish and short-sighted of the EU. They are doing Putin’s bidding for him. They should recognize that the UK was manipulated, just like us. The same could happen to them easily (already? Poland is in the EU isn’t it?)

  179. 179.

    Gin & Tonic

    @ChrisS: Because a townhouse in London or Zurich is a far safer place to park your money than any equivalent in Moscow or St. Petersburg.

  180. 180.

    Sm*t Cl*de

    @TenguPhule:

    She’s the UK’s Trump, only with less excuse for being such a useless idiot.

    PLEASE. Boris Johnson is the UK’s Trump.

  181. 181.

    bjacques

    @Kay: That’s what galls me about a friend who is totally besotted by Bitcoin, She thinks the financial revolution that will make her and her friends zillionaires and the rest of us chumps for clinging to our poor, pathetic fiat currency, *yet nothing else will change*.Likewise Bannon and his dreams of disruption and chaos. One of the notable features of chaos is that it leads to nonobvious and nonlinear consequences, even or especially for those banking on it.

  182. 182.

    MaxUtil

    @TenguPhule: So she’s not one of the “good ones”? This tries to sound like hard-nosed, reality based analysis in the service of women’s aspirations, but comes off more as demanding that any non-white male must be exceptional or risk becoming a ‘gender-traitor’. “How dare this woman suck at her job, doesn’t she know she’s hurting women!”

  183. 183.

    LAO

    I, for one, am shocked:

    White House repeatedly declines to echo Britain that Russia was behind or complicit in nerve agent attack on British soil.— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) March 12, 2018

  184. 184.

    Adam L Silverman

    @ChrisS:

    the Russian state Putin is friendly to oligarchs and whatever they wish to do

    Until he isn’t, so moving it outside his reach and that of other rivals is important. Also, it has to be laundered to be able to be legitimately banked since so much of it was made illegally.

  185. 185.

    Ksmiami

    @Stan: we should start fucking with their banks and funding rt now@cwmoss: exactly- when us banks refused to fund the fraudster he went all in on laundered Russian rubles and they own his ass.

  186. 186.

    Corner Stone

    @Gin & Tonic: From my reading of the Northern Alliance Treaty, Article 4, sub-section 20, it appears that determining a country is ineligible to participate in Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication is technically a …squirrel!Christina Hendricks!

  187. 187.

    Stan

    @Fair Economist: I don’t think it would actually break NATO if Britain invoked assistance and the traitor in chief exposed himself by refusing. The population, and even Congress, would still strongly support Britain. It would produce a crisis in the US.

    I wish you were right. But I think much of the US public would ignore the whole thing or think of it as a pesky European problem, to the extent they know Britain is in Europe (or *near* it as some Brits may prefer).

    It’s shameful.

  188. 188.

    Roger Moore

    @ChrisS:

    I’m not a high finance guy, but why do Russian oligarchs need to launder this much money in foreign countries if, tacitly, the Russian state is friendly to oligarchs and whatever they wish to do?

    Because they’ve seen what happens to other oligarchs who have something Putin wants. The same conditions that have let them acquire their riches also make it possible for them to lose them in a heartbeat. They desperately want to get everything they can- including their families- safely away from Russia and into countries that respect property rights, habeus corpus, and all that other nice rule of law stuff.

  191. 191.

    Stan

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?: What we’re looking at is what would happen if organized crime seized control of a largish nationstate and is now trying to export it’s model to the the rest of the world. It’s the exact opposite of what the US has imperfectly tried doing for the last half-century.

    Really? I think it’s exactly the same as what the US has done in the black and brown world for a couple centuries. We have done better in white countries, for sure. Genuinely liberated a few of them.

  193. 193.

    Kay

    @bjacques:

    One of the notable features of chaos is that it leads to nonobvious and nonlinear consequences, even or especially for those banking on it.

    That was always the thing with Trump. He may be a master at controlling his fans and media, but he can’t control what happens- he can’t control the PM’s response to a Putin attack. Everyone who is cheering on his recklessness isn’t considering that this really is complex, and could easily spin out of his control. That’s WHY you want someone who knows what they’re doing. Not because you’re married to convention but because there’s a bunch of different actors and interests and we really DON’T control the whole world.

    Now what does he do? Side with Putin against the UK?

  195. 195.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Roger Moore: Absolutely true and I don’t think this is a likely scenario. BUT, it’s absolutely something a british politician (not even one in leadership, just somebody with a big enough loudspeaker) could start pushing.

    It’s not that Article 50 is completely undoable – it’s just that there’s consequences to revoking it. Especially if you want to be the guy who gets a lot of news for it, saying “We thought we were doing the right thing but we were completely hoodwinked” could get you and your other causes a lot of traction. Agreeing that there’s consequences but that you should export those to Russia might very well be a political winner as well as a move forward in the right direction.

    @ChrisS: Pretty sure it’s about laundering so you can use the money OUTSIDE of Russia… and because finance systems are international, if you’re obviously using mob money in Russia that affects your ability to borrow or spend elsewhere if the banks get cheesed enough at you.

  197. 197.

    Brachiator

    @bjacques:

    Likewise Bannon and his dreams of disruption and chaos. One of the notable features of chaos is that it leads to nonobvious and nonlinear consequences, even or especially for those banking on it.

    Bannon is a sad little puke. He runs around ranting about liberty and chaos, at the behest of rigid control-freak oligarchs, who pull his chain when he strays beyond what they allow him to talk about.

  198. 198.

    Ruckus

    @LAO:
    I, for two, am shocked, shocked I say, to see stupidity going on in such a fine establishment as the WH.
    By now of course we shouldn’t be shocked by anything drumpf does or doesn’t do, says or doesn’t say.

  199. 199.

    Sm*t Cl*de

    @Brachiator:

    Bannon is a sad little puke.

    Last seen in France, telling the National Front neo-nazis that they should embrace the label “racist” as a badge of pride.

  200. 200.

    ericblair

    @Bruce K:

    Another thing flitting through my mind that’s more than a little scary: if this bears out, it’s an attack with weapons of mass destruction, and I seem to recall somewhere that NATO considered chemical and biological weapons to be morally equivalent to nuclear weapons, and that their response would not involve the biological or chemical type of WMD’s…

    Response needs to be proportionate. Nukes would not be proportionate. However, a cyber attack on the Russian government might be, as cyber is now considered a domain of warfare like land, air, and sea. This would depend on the state of national legislation to allow it. My understanding is that Russian government systems aren’t that hardened to cyber attack, since they’re much more used to dishing it out then taking it.

    Also, economic warfare against oligarchs’ assets. That’s their soft spot, and it’s hard for Russia to fire up their Russophobia woe-is-us act when the UK is seizing luxury homes and slush funds of outrageously wealthy crooks. The UK hasn’t wanted to do it, but this may force them to. Putin is a thug, and does not seem to understand the distinction between being unwilling to act and unable to act. This is a stupid, dangerous game by a resentful man who doesn’t understand things as well as he thinks he does.

  201. 201.

    Roger Moore

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?:

    I think that’s foolish and short-sighted of the EU. They are doing Putin’s bidding for him.

    The EU is deeply worried about letting countries threaten to leave as a way of extracting concessions, which they can easily do if they can back out at any time and return to the status quo ante.

  202. 202.

    TenguPhule

    @MisterForkbeard:

    Agreeing that there’s consequences but that you should export those to Russia might very well be a political winner as well as a move forward in the right direction.

    Their MPs are too afraid of the consequences of Not-Brexiting to do it. It would involve heaping portions of humble pie and losing all of the special exemptions they previously had as the special member. Their Conservatives would rather go down in a blaze of ignominy then risk that.

  203. 203.

    TenguPhule

    @Roger Moore:

    They desperately want to get everything they can- including their families- safely away from Russia and into countries that respect property rights, habeus corpus, and all that other nice rule of law stuff.

    Of course what ends up happening is that they bring all of the shit from Russia with them instead.

  204. 204.

    Cheryl Rofer

    This is likely true at working levels of the State Department, CIA, FBI, the national laboratories, and others.

  205. 205.

    Kay

    A prominent Los Angeles Republican power broker and fundraiser who has been linked to two ongoing political scandals is co-hosting a fundraiser for Donald Trump on the occasion of his first official visit to California as president.
    Elliott Broidy, the deputy national finance chairman of the Republican National Committee, is set to preside over a $35,000-per-person event for Trump on Tuesday night at an undisclosed location in Beverly Hills.
    Broidy and his wife, attorney Robin Rosenzweig, a discreet but powerful couple in Republican fundraising circles, have been tied through a trove of leaked documentation received by media organizations to the multibillion-dollar Malaysian graft scheme that has entangled actor Leonardo DiCaprio and Miranda Kerr, the model and wife of Snapchat founder Evan Spiegel. The documents also reveal a series of connections between Broidy and U.S. special counsel Robert Mueller’s inquiry into foreign influence-peddling of the Trump administration.

    These people. Do ANY of them make honest money? Their entire business model consists of scams.

    We have a corrupt and decadent elite. The Trump voters are just the willing dupes. The real problem starts much higher on the food chain.

    Mueller better hire some more prosecutors. This thing is going to involve hundreds of people.

  206. 206.

    TenguPhule

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    This is likely true at working levels of the State Department, CIA, FBI, the national laboratories, and others.

    Strike out the State Department. We don’t have much left of that one.

  207. 207.

    Lyrebird

    @TenguPhule:

    I didn’t mean it to come off that way.

    I believe you. Our worldviews are really not the same, but I’d never “heard” you sound the way that came across to me, and I’ve certainly said things before in ways that could be easily misconstrued, so that’s why I chimed in.

  208. 208.

    TenguPhule

    @Kay:

    Do ANY of them make honest money?

    No. SATSQ.

    This thing is going to involve hundreds of people.

    You’re probably off by a factor of 10, under.

  210. 210.

    patroclus

    @ChrisS: It’s a combination of several factors. First, it’s different currencies – they make most of their money in rubles, which is not a hard currency and has wild swings in value at times. So, they want to convert their rubles into one of the reserve (dollars/euros/yen) or hard (pound/swiss francs and a few others) currencies which can, in large amounts only be done out of Russia. Second, they are so rich now that they want to make investments elsewhere that can either be shams (Florida real estate) or stores of value long-term and they do invest in some legit stuff too (like UK investment firms). Third, they may be part of Putin’s power structure now, but they are hedging that because he occasionally turns on some of them and they want an escape plan. Or they might want to contemplate having their kids educated or established abroad. Fourth, they want to expand their influence and as big as Russia is it’s still only a bit player in international finance. Fifth, many of their criminal enterprises are international because the economy is so globalized, so they operate outside of Russia at a growing rate. There’s others too – check out the new show McMafia.

  211. 211.

    Kay

    @TenguPhule:

    multibillion-dollar Malaysian graft scheme

    I don’t even want to know what this is. Some gross grift. Just put them on the list with Eric Prince.

  213. 213.

    Betty Cracker

    HuckaBS was asked about the use of nerve agents in the UK at this afternoon’s briefing. Her response was not reassuring — she couldn’t bring herself to utter the word “Russia.” [YouTube]

  214. 214.

    jl

    @TenguPhule: ” If she were a man. she’d be Donald Trump Jr. ”

    May combines the political gifts of John Major, with the blessing of running an awful political party with the policy genius of Donald Trump himself. May is saddled with the horrible no good combo of worst of Tories with bonehead UK alt-right Trumpsters, like Boris, and gets the extra benefit of the policy legacy of charlatans like Farage.

  215. 215.

    Brachiator

    @Kay:

    That’s WHY you want someone who knows what they’re doing. Not because you’re married to convention but because there’s a bunch of different actors and interests and we really DON’T control the whole world.

    You’re absolutely right. And yet here we are, with an egotistical blowhard in the White House who doesn’t understand how uninformed he is.

    Now what does he do? Side with Putin against the UK?

    Right now, it’s looks as though his silence can be taken as an indicator that he is leaning toward Putin.

  216. 216.

    Stan

    @Roger Moore: I think that’s foolish and short-sighted of the EU. They are doing Putin’s bidding for him.

    Don’t the Russians kinda have them by the gonads with energy exports?

  217. 217.

    patroclus

    And I’ll add that the U.S. is not as lucrative of an option for the Russian oligarchs because the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets control is so active in freezing money of so many individuals and businesses that it dominates allegedly criminal international activity and the UK, the Europeans and the Asians have never been nearly so active. So, any money that goes through either Fedwire or CHIPS is potentially subject to be frozen at any time (which is why others are focusing on SWIFT above). They do some U.S. stuff but generally avoid the U.S. for large amounts. The U.K. and Europe are far more likely venues for them because they can usually get away with it without fear of ramifications. Plus, OFAC freezes can last a LONG time; often forever.

  218. 218.

    TenguPhule

    @jl:

    the political gifts of John Major

    I am led to understand this is a gross insult to John Major.

  221. 221.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @Stan:
    The US has a mixed history, for sure. But what Putin is doing, and other autocrats are taking notes on, is attacking the notion of objective truth itself. If no objective truth exists, then people stop caring about changing their society or government. They are a true existential threat to the very concept of a fair democracy and even the continued stability of the human race; a global dystopia (to us) is what Putin and his fellow travelers are ushering in, one that does not have a place for human dignity.

  229. 229.

    patroclus

    @ChrisS: That’s because of what Adam said. The Russian government is essentially acting in concert with the oligarchs in running massive criminal enterprises all around the world. This is somewhat of unprecedented situation. In the old days, the Communists ran the government and weren’t nearly so criminal. Nowadays, the government and the criminal organizations are more or less the same. There has never been a situation where a powerful country has acted like that.

  231. 231.

    ChrisS

    @TenguPhule: John E Smith is the acting director. Seems to be a long-term employee with extensive experience. Clerked for a GOP judge in the 1990s, Wilmer Hale associate for a brief spell, but all federal service after that.

  234. 234.

    Corner Stone

    @Betty Cracker:

    Her response was not reassuring — she couldn’t bring herself to utter the word “Russia.”

    She may as well have mooned the WH Press. Probably would have been more truthful and informative.

  235. 235.

    patroclus

    @ChrisS: Oh, I guess Szubin retired. The OFAC head reports to Mnuchin. It is really run by the long-term professionals that interpret all the various regulations on a day-to-day basis. Trump doesn’t appear to have been told about it as yet, so he hasn’t (as yet) messed with it.

  237. 237.

    patroclus

    @jl: Yeah, maybe the Medicis are comparable. Perhaps the banking advisers to the Tokugawa shogunate or a Chinese emperor (when they were powerful). But in all those cases, their reach wasn’t quite so global. This is really sort of a new development.

  240. 240.

    Mike in DC

    We need to work out ways to go after the oligarchs, perhaps up to and including arranging accidents for some of them.

  241. 241.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Corner Stone: And which moon of Uranus would that be? This week, anyway?

    That Fuckabee-Slanders person is one galumphing nightmare lump of ectoplasm, nyet?

  244. 244.

    Jay

    @ericblair:

    Marcy Wheeler at Emptywheel had an interesting take/timeline,

    Obama sent a sternly worded warning to Putin,

    The “Shadowbrokers” dropped their internet Auction of stolen NSA Hacking Tools, with proofs that they had them,

    Obama went to Yurtle the Turtle, who chose to back Putin.

    The NSC team exploring cyberwar responses was told to stand down.

    So basically, Putin’s response to US retaliation, was “bring it”.

    On Saturday, I read a news article, which was basically Russia’s Information Ministry’s claims that in event of a cyberwar, Russia had positioned itself to be able to shut down all external internet connections, run the Government, Military and some parts of the Civil Economy on an Internal Net, and was protected from a lot of hacking and cracking, by running Russian software.

    In a cyberwar between The West and Russia, the West has a lot more vulnerabilities.

  245. 245.

    TenguPhule

    @Jay:

    run the Government, Military and some parts of the Civil Economy on an Internal Net, and was protected from a lot of hacking and cracking, by running Russian software.

    And someone in the CIA is laughing themselves sick because they didn’t even have to pay for this to go horribly wrong in operation.

  246. 246.

    MCA1

    @Adam L Silverman: If May is clever, she could perhaps figure out a way to use this to her advantage by playing our president for the fool he is. The Russians and Chinese have done so, why shouldn’t our allies start to? Our leadership void does take active military response off the table, at least of the NATO coordinated kind. But to some degree that makes things easier for the UK, as the stakes are automatically lowered. If they’re at the point of wondering whether the United States is just adrift or willingly complicit with Russian wrongdoing, they could play some games here to suss out the truth. Have discussions with Drumpf, probably convince him to give Article V assurances despite having no intention of actually invoking it. Then start leaking that they’ve considered a joint NATO response and everyone’s behind them and watch (a) Putin get paranoid, and (b) the firestorm in the U.S. as Trump backpedals, further abdicates our global leadership position, and seals his treachery and/or uselessness. Even if Trump surprised you and kept his word, you’d now have strong commitments to the treaty when previously its strength was being threatened. And if he declined, you could strategically use that bit of knowledge, too.

    I could see Merkel or Macron doing something like this. It could serve several purposes for them, including increasing their own global stature, and possibly further pushing U.S. Republicans to get off the sidelines and do something about their POTUS actively outsourcing foreign policy to a hostile power. I guess the risk would be that Dotard might publicly disavow NATO or something, further emboldening Russia.

  248. 248.

    mozzerb

    @TenguPhule: May isn’t great, but she’s nothing like Trump. Call her, I dunno, a British Jeb Bush maybe (not exact, but nearer and the best I can do on the spur of the moment). I have a tiny bit of sympathy for her because here and with Brexit she’s been placed in some situations with no good solution, but well — you wanted the job Theresa, now try and do it.

  249. 249.

    Miss Bianca

    @Stan: it’s not only that, of course…it’s that there’s a pretty damning case to be made that our “leader” was installed with the generous help of the Russians. We can’t really expect Putin’s Poodle to turn on his master, can we?

  250. 250.

    Elie

    @Jay:

    And you know this how? I’m not saying I know better, but you seem pretty sure of yourself and what you know “for sure”. If you were in a position to know, I doubt that you would be sharing it openly on the intertubes on Balloon-Juice, but what the hey….

  251. 251.

    Bill Arnold

    (Not trying to come across as reflexively pro-Russian here ’cause I’m not; just genuinely confused.)
    I’m confused; is May asserting that because the Russians invented[1] such a nerve agent, that what forensics (unspecified publicly) say is the same thing was produced in Russia and delivered by Russians or agents to the UK? Not seeing a clear causal chain here. Is there any surveillance video or similar implicating Russia? Could the very small quantity needed have been produced clandestinely elsewhere? Etc.
    [1] The joke meme is You name it, the Russians invented it.

  252. 252.

    J. Adams Jefferson

    @MCA1:

    No way Trump allows Article V to be invoked. Putin set this up to give Trump an opening to undermine NATO. US will give mixed response. NatSec pros will acknowledge evidence if allowed to, maybe Tillerson too, before being overruled on Twitter. “Sympathetic clucking” is not Trump’s style. He’ll find a way to insult May while backing up Putin. Daily Caller will find villains in all unlikely places: like Obama, HRC, Steele…

  253. 253.

    Mike in DC

    @Bill Arnold:
    Means, Motive, Opportunity all point to Russia here. Military grade chem weapons are tightly controlled. Russia is the only country known to even possess Novichok. The only party with a motive to kill Skripal. And apparently they had a clear opportunity.

  254. 254.

    debbie

    @Betty Cracker:

    She’s a fucking liar. She didn’t say “Russia” because, she said, the UK hadn’t determined that yet. Looking at the time stamps of your link and Theresa May’s up top, SHS spoke more than 12 hours later. What, does she only communicate via snail mail?

  258. 258.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @MCA1: Too hardball, to much risk. Nobody’s going to do that at this point.

    @Bill Arnold:

    I’m confused; is May asserting that because the Russians invented[1] such a nerve agent, that what forensics (unspecified publicly) say is the same thing was produced in Russia and delivered by Russians or agents to the UK? Not seeing a clear causal chain here. Is there any surveillance video or similar implicating Russia? Could the very small quantity needed have been produced clandestinely elsewhere? Etc.

    1. Any nerve agent almost has to be produced in a government laboratory. The synthesis isn’t particularly easy, but the real kicker is that if you get ANY of it on you, you are dead or damaged for life. Remote handling and special ventilation required. Not something you can make in your garage.

    2. Russia is the only country known to have produced the Novichoks. Or, more precisely, the Soviet Union in its last years. It developed them clandestinely, in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. It had two plants, one in Russia and one in Uzbekistan, that produced warfighting quantities of them. The only other places that could produce them are in the US and the UK.

    3. This assassination is analogous to that of Alexander Litvinenko. Someone inconvenient to the Russian government in the UK, a special poison only available to the government.

    May didn’t say anything about suspects. There was an earlier report that a man and a woman on a surveillance video were of interest. Britain has a lot of surveillance video cameras. I suspect that their footage is being carefully perused.

    I agree that an airtight causal chain hasn’t been presented. But the use of a Novichok screams “Russia” to people who track this stuff. And there may well be evidence that we don’t know yet.

  260. 260.

    Jay

    @Mike in DC:

    And there are 3 known flavours of Novichuk, none of which were disclosed by the Russians/Soviets under the Arms Control Treaties,

    but were later “discovered” to have been being “Researched” by Russia.

    Every CBW has “unique” fingerprints that allow Researchers to trace it back to Country of Origin, and in some cases, which Labs and Researchers.

  261. 261.

    Raven Onthill

    “We can hit you anywhere.”

    But they could do that without fancy poisons; a rifle with telescopic sights is sufficient. Does Putin have a poison fixation?

    Or was it Putin? It would have to be someone with serious technical chops – just making Novichok is dangerous –, but there are other organizations that could pull it off.

  262. 262.

    Bill Arnold

    @Cheryl Rofer:
    OK thanks. First, I totally respect your expertise here (seriously), so please regard this as inquisitiveness. (Also, related, trying to work out a semi-complete list of who could have reasonably aspired to “benefit” from this.)

    Any nerve agent almost has to be produced in a government laboratory. The synthesis isn’t particularly easy, but the real kicker is that if you get ANY of it on you, you are dead or damaged for life. Remote handling and special ventilation required. Not something you can make in your garage.

    There is a wide range between government labs and garages. (e.g. I’ve seen industrial facilities that might suffice or be easily adapted for such work. Cleanup with fire, maybe.) So not clear to me, if one isn’t aspiring to a stellar OSHA safety rating or other-country equivalent.

    It had two plants, one in Russia and one in Uzbekistan, that produced warfighting quantities of them. The only other places that could produce them are in the US and the UK.

    Two things; one, warfighting quantities (of whatever it was) were not used, and two, as you note US and the UK (at least) could also produce small quantities.

    This assassination is analogous to that of Alexander Litvinenko.

    True, but that doesn’t rule out other culprits. And might make them more likely?

    Britain has a lot of surveillance video cameras.

    This aspect may be interesting, agreed.

  263. 263.

    Bill Arnold

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Russian media is happy to report:…

    Ouch. Afraid to look (but will) to see how that will play on the newly pro-Russian American Right.
    I’m frankly surprised that T.May went there so quickly.

  264. 264.

    Jay

    @Raven Onthill:

    It’s a form of brutal punishment. None of the dead the Russians killed, that Buzzfeed tracked, died quickly, or easily.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/from-russia-with-blood-14-suspected-hits-on-british-soil?utm_term=.qw3k1Yw4X#.sd61r54wG

    Some of Russia’s targets even lived, some crippled for life, others barely alive.

    A lot of the Russian’s victims knew they were being hunted for months, shooting someone in Britian isn’t logistically easy, baiting a target’s routine, like a grave visit, or a cuppa tea, with “the right” poison is a lot easier.

  267. 267.

    Jay

    @Bill Arnold:

    “e range between government labs and garages. (e.g. I’ve seen industrial facilities that might suffice or be easily adapted for such work. Cleanup with fire, maybe.) So not clear to me, if one isn’t aspiring to a stellar OSHA safety rating or other-country equivalent.”

    The issue is even trace amounts can cripple or kill. The issue is not in “cleaning” up afterwards, but having the sufficient equiptment, protocols and safeties to live long enough to make it.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent

    “Two things; one, warfighting quantities (of whatever it was) were not used, and two, as you note US and the UK (at least) could also produce small quantities.”

    While US and UK labs can produce small samples, it’s a reverse engineered product, that while very similar to Soviet/Russia product, it will have detectable differences because it’s not made with Soviet/Russian precursours, technology or procedures and protocols in a Russian/Soviet lab, or stored in Russia.

    “True, but that doesn’t rule out other culprits. And might make them more likely?”

    Nope. Nerve agents like these are the end product of billions of dollars invested and decades of cumulative research, which, like Nuclear Weapons, tags them as the product of a Nation’s Weapons Program.

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