Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans can’t even be trusted with their own money.

A consequence of cucumbers

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Biden: Oh no. We’ve upset Big Pharma again.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

In after Baud. Damn.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

No one could have predicted…

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

“Why isn’t this Snickers bar only a nickel?”

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

It could be worse. Vance could have said “post-menopausal sows.” Waiting for that audiotape to surface.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

Bad news for Ron DeSantis is great news for America.

You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2018 / PA-18 results open thread

Reader Interactions

342Comments

  4. 4.

    japa21

    I really shouldn’t be this keyed up about this race, but I am. The devil made me do it. Rather Trump made me do it. Um, that’s the same thing, isn’t it.

  6. 6.

    Corner Stone

    Looks like premature posting execution. Don’t worry. It happens to a lot of Front Pagers. Or so I hear.

  8. 8.

    Snarki, child of Loki

    Shitty cold snowy weather today.

    Those with WHITE HOT RAGE won’t notice.

  9. 9.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    BRD Polling
    ‏ @brd_polling
    1m1 minute ago

    BRD #ExitPolls for #PA18!

    Lamb – 52 (+5)
    Saccone – 47
    Miller – 1

    Trump Approval
    Approve – 48
    Disapprove – 48
    Unsure – 4

  12. 12.

    Baud

    It’ll be close in a +20 Trump district where the GOP far outspent us. Winning it outright would be icing on the cake.

  13. 13.

    WaterGirl

    @dmsilev: Just seeing those words in blue (your link) gives me flashbacks to election night Nov 2016. I will never be able to look at one of those again.

  16. 16.

    WaterGirl

    Just a few hours ago I started to wonder about possible interference in voting in this special election. However it comes out, I hope the exit polls are close to the results.

  17. 17.

    guachi

    I can’t quit the New York Times needle. It’s what told me Hillary would lose and I kept posting here that there was trouble long before most of the rest of the Juicers succumbed to reality.

  21. 21.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    Evan McMurry
    ‏ @evanmcmurry

    #PA18 has generated 373,000 in the last three days.

    Conor Lamb seems to be owning Twitter; three of the top associated hashtags are pro-Lamb, and the five top #PA18 tweets are from Conor Lamb or his supporters.

    I guess Putin didn’t want to invest in this particular race.

  22. 22.

    Corner Stone

    @WaterGirl: I would have further comments but MSNBC’s god damned bullshit bottom line chyron is keeping me from seeing it any longer.

  23. 23.

    Ignatius Donnelly

    @dmsilev: That’s basically the “Tsar is good but his counsellors are evil” faction. They’re aware that the GOP is screwing them, but they don’t blame Trump. A key target group for Lamb, believe it or not.

  24. 24.

    WaterGirl

    @guachi: You can’t quit their needle, and I shudder at the thought of ever looking at one of those again. Interesting that we have such different responses to the same thing.

    It takes all kinds, as my dad used to say.

  25. 25.

    Corner Stone

    I am not sure why MSNBC is displaying CURRENT HOUSE CONTROL numbers when this is one race that won’t tip the balance either way.

  26. 26.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I hope Lamb wins and shows up at a victory rally in a Sheperd Fairey inspired Nancy Pelosi tee-shirt

  29. 29.

    efgoldman

    @japa21:

    Trump made me do it. Um, that’s the same thing, isn’t it.

    He is much too dumb to be the devil. Not even an apprentice fallen angel

  32. 32.

    Sloane Ranger

    David so excited it looks like he hit the post button twice.

    Cheering for some Lamb with mint sauce from across the pond.

  35. 35.

    Tinare

    Turnout in Mt. Lebanon was reportedly high. Affluent, educated, populous part of the district. My relatives there are Lamb supporters. Fingers are crossed for a win.

  38. 38.

    Matt McIrvin

    As someone on LGM pointed out, whether Lamb actually wins is not that consequential: the district is going to be eliminated anyway, and the fact that it’s even close in this district is great news for November. But a win would be good.

  39. 39.

    WaterGirl

    @Major Major Major Major: I’m serious. Just the thought of looking at the needle gives me the willies. I have no idea whether they have done that or not.

    They are bastards for building in the jitteringt in the first place!

  41. 41.

    different-church-lady

    @Matt McIrvin: In my view, it has significant impact on the narrative: “Dems can win anywhere” vs. “Oh, look how close the horserace is” is big as far as psychological edge goes.

  43. 43.

    scott (the other one)

    @Matt McIrvin: A win would be good, as (among other things) it would likely cause even more incumbent GOPers to retire, making their races even more competitive.

  45. 45.

    guachi

    The Needle is nice because it automatically does the math on the “but the results of the urban areas haven’t come in yet!!!!” mantra you always hear.

  46. 46.

    WaterGirl

    @Matt McIrvin: Though I get that the district is redrawn, so this is only until November, I don’t see how it’s not better for him to win tonight than to lose. Winning > Losing. Plus the humiliation of the R candidate is important.

  51. 51.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    BEJAN
    ‏ @JEFFGORDON5
    1m1 minute ago

    This #pa18 hearing illegal out of state voters could be there and this very illegal it happend in Alabama so #Democrats are desperate anymore #RedWaveRising2018

    Russians need to work on their conversational english

  53. 53.

    different-church-lady

    @JR: Hypothetical: is Lamb on the edge of victory tonight if Moore had squeaked out a win?

  54. 54.

    mike in dc

    @JR: Isn’t this the last congressional special election before November, though? Unless Thad Cochran’s replacement is up before then.

  61. 61.

    japa21

    500 plus votes counted, Lamb up 52.5 to 47. We can all go to bed now. It’s in the bag.

  63. 63.

    Baud

    OT. Beware!

    HELENA, Mont. (AP) — A man who registered as a Green Party candidate for Montana’s U.S. Senate race was on the state Republican Party’s payroll and heads a newly formed anti-tax group, according to a review of election documents.

    Timothy Adams filed as a challenger Monday against Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who faces a tough re-election campaign, in a race where a Green Party candidate could siphon votes from the Democrat.

    AP

  67. 67.

    remima

    @schrodingers_cat: Yes, I had to turn it off. WTF??
    I hate watch the US politics crap on the Snooze Hour, but some of the other reporting is interesting news that I don’t see elsewhere, so I can’t quite quit it.

  70. 70.

    Corner Stone

    I am not going to link to it, It’s in NYT. But this is one example of a brazillion why I never want to hear another word from any of the Obama admin ever again.
    Samantha Power: How Mike Pompeo Could Save the State Department

  77. 77.

    geg6

    @WaterGirl:

    He’ll run in the new 17th (my district) against the odious Keith Rothfus. A loss for a Rothfus is a most delicious thought.

  78. 78.

    Davebo

    Seen on Twitter.. Cute.

    White House Job Interview

    “So where do you see yourself in five minutes?”

  88. 88.

    SgrAstar

    I feel like I’m having a flashback…to November 2016. Trying to remain calm and optimistic. Surely our fellow citizens won’t screw us over again…..

  93. 93.

    WaterGirl

    @raven: There are 3 things he’d like to fix in the VA, but he can’t recall the third one.

    edit: not to make light of that, he would surely be a disaster. Talk about disrespecting the troops.

  97. 97.

    mike in dc

    @JMG: Yeah, I researched my own query and saw that. Those are long shots, to say the least. Incumbents got 68% and 66% in 2016, respectively. Worth a shot, of course.

  99. 99.

    Ignatius Donnelly

    @Baud: You’re both right: Lamb out-raised Saccone 5-1, but outside spending for Saccone was way ahead of Lamb.

  104. 104.

    japa21

    Lamb up by 20% with 3% in. But I suspect there are a lot of strong GOP precincts not reporting yet.

  105. 105.

    WaterGirl

    @geg6: Plus, a proven winner carries a lot of weight. I think this win could make a huge difference. If I weren’t so lazy, I could list 10 different ways right off the top of my head.

  107. 107.

    dmsilev

    @WaterGirl: Something north of $10 million by the time the dust settles. Which is a hell of a lot for any House race, never mind one which the GOP was supposed to win easily.

  108. 108.

    Corner Stone

    @Baud: Fantasy.
    “If Mike Pompeo, the director of the C.I.A., wins confirmation as Rex Tillerson’s replacement as secretary of state, fixing this would become his responsibility. He can’t change the president, but he can make it his mission to revitalize America’s diplomatic corps and get back to trying to solve problems in the real world.”

  110. 110.

    different-church-lady

    @japa21:

    I suspect there are a lot of strong GOP precincts not reporting yet.

    Maybe they’re too ashamed to say anything.

  114. 114.

    Baud

    @Corner Stone:

    Meh. People like to give Dems “advice” all the time, and it’s annoying as hell. Unless there’s something else, this seems like turnabout is fair play to me.

  116. 116.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    I know it’s meaningless this early, but Lamb just jumped to a 61-39 lead with 5% reporting. Whoa!

  117. 117.

    B.B.A.

    @japa21: Map shows most of the precincts to report so far are in the Pittsburgh burbs. The Pennsyltuckians have yet to make their mark.

  118. 118.

    PaulWartenberg

    please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout okay?

  120. 120.

    WaterGirl

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): They do have to be confirmed again, but it’s usually a given that if they made it through for one, they will breeze through all subsequent confirmations.

    Look at Leon Panetta, he served in several positions. I am really, hoping though, that there are some key NO votes as a way to send a little feedback to the president. Hoping there are at least 2 Rs who actually give a shit about this country.

    edit: and EVERY SINGLE DEM.

  126. 126.

    Ignatius Donnelly

    @WaterGirl: I’ve seen analysts on Twitter reporting a swing of 20 to 2y percentage points in the precincts counted so far.

  129. 129.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    Nate Cohn
    ‏ @Nate_Cohn

    Good news for Lamb: He appears to be running ahead of expectations in fragmentary returns in white, working class, traditionally Dem Greene County. He inches ahead in our estimate.

    23 replies 173 retweets 498 likes

  130. 130.

    dmsilev

    @B.B.A.: Very early yet, but encouraging. NYT’s analysis of what their needle is showing:

    It’s early, very early. But good news for Conor Lamb: He appears to be running ahead of expectations in white working-class traditionally Dem Greene County. He inches ahead in our estimate. On average, Lamb is running 3 points ahead of our estimates in fragmentary returns.

  131. 131.

    geg6

    @japa21:

    Yeah, pretty sure that’s all Allegheny County, the more affluent and educated suburb. But even still, that’s a damn big spread for the area.

  133. 133.

    guachi

    It’ll be interesting not just to see the lead the R gets from the R areas but turnout, too. I suspect we’ll see some quick changes if turnout is different than expected.

  138. 138.

    WaterGirl

    @raven:

    He was in the fucking air force.

    I’m not sure how that is significant.

    There’s not a single R that would be put up for that position that actually gives a shit about making/keeping the VA a good place, run by the government, not privatized. Plus, the guy is not competent.

    edited

  141. 141.

    efgoldman

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady):

    Trump can’t just assume a confirmation is good everywhere forever, can he?

    He can, and will, assume whatever the fuck his mini-brain conjures up, but he’d be wrong.
    Each nominee for each office requires senate confirmation. Usually someone in an existing, already confirmed cabinet job slides thru with a couple of pro forma hearings and a vote. We have left usually far, far behind.

  143. 143.

    japa21

    FTFNYT has it back to even. Not a single precinct in Westmoreland County has reported yet. That seems suspicious to me.

  144. 144.

    Mary G

    Never heard of this guy before, but he says he’s a GOP consultant and I’m hoping he’s right:

    Saccone is losing Bethel Park precincts by 10-15 points. This thing is over. #pa18— Mark Davin Harris (@markdharris) March 14, 2018

  146. 146.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    Nate Cohn
    ‏ @Nate_Cohn

    Our expectations supposed a very strong Dem turnout in the well-educated suburbs around Pittsburgh, weaker in working class areas. That’s being materializing.

    I guess working class whites are demobilizing now that War on Christmas as been won.

  148. 148.

    Gin & Tonic

    Midnight GMT has come and gone, and Russia has not responded to Theresa May. Now what?

  156. 156.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    Dave Wasserman
    ‏ @Redistrict

    The most GOP-heavy Allegheny precinct that’s reported so far (Jefferson Hills) is only at 54.7% of its 2016 turnout, while most Dem-heavy precinct (Mt. Lebanon 5-7) is at 75.2% of its 2016 turnout.

    That mirrors 2017 specials and it’s pretty ominous for Saccone (R). #PA18

    Win or lose tonight, the fact that turnout for Dems is out pacing GOP by 20.5% is big for the fall.

  157. 157.

    Another Scott

    @Corner Stone: Haven’t read the story, but Pompeo going from a money-is-no-object-black-budget agency to a let’s-cut-the-budget-by-30-percent agency is going to be eye-opening for him. No matter how good a “manager” he is.

    Dunno what Power’s thinking, and I don’t really want to spend time on it. Of course a good manager “can” do lots of things, but Trump didn’t pick him to fix Tillerson’s gutting of state. He picked him to continue gutting State and be a yes man.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  158. 158.

    WaterGirl

    @raven: sorry to be dense. Maybe I misunderstood your original comment.

    Rick Perry to the VA, that’s just what the fuck we need.

    Was that serious or sarcastic? Do you think his being in the air force was a good thing?

  164. 164.

    WaterGirl

    @Gin & Tonic: Did you see the two articles related to this on Lawfare today? I thought they were both terrific, and I learned a lot.

    Let me know if you want links.

  166. 166.

    Aleta

    Now he’s shooting his rifle off at the sky.

    AP source: President Trump considering replacing embattled VA Secretary Shulkin with Energy Secretary Rick Perry.

  167. 167.

    guachi

    Lamb has such a huge mountain to climb that he can make up 18 points on Trump’s margin and still lose. So all these reports of good news for Lamb might not be enough when he needs GREAT news.

    For those who aren’t looking, the NYT forecast has been between +0.5 for Lamb and +2.1 for Saccone (where it is now).

  168. 168.

    Yarrow

    @satby: OT – saw your comment in TaMara’s thread and have seen some of your other comments re: your coughing or breathing issues, or whatever they’ve turned into. Several years ago I had a cold that settled in my lungs and I just couldn’t seem to get better. The doctor finally gave me an inhaler and I used it for a short period of time. That allowed my lungs to heal or work better and I finally was able to recover. Just wanted to mention it in case it wasn’t something you’d considered yet and might want to look into. Hope you feel better.

  171. 171.

    japa21

    Swinging heavily towards Saccone. I may disregard my own advice and start sweating this. Remember exit polls had Lamb up 5. If Saccone wins by 2-3 that is worrisome. Yes exit polls are not perfect, but a 6-7 point differential is unusual.

  177. 177.

    satby

    @Yarrow: aww, thanks! I have an inhaler and an Rx for Advair, but the steroid actually made me worse for a bit because it reduced my immune response. I’m much better, but just like you and Tamara, I feel fine and get on with normal activity and then feel wiped out the next day. I figure I just have to wait it out and do what I can.

  178. 178.

    patroclus

    The percentage is narrowing but the margin (roughly 6000) is widening. 54-46 (31% in).

  180. 180.

    japa21

    36% in but Westmoreland still hasn’t had a single precinct report. To repeat myself, that seems suspicious.

  181. 181.

    Elizabelle

    Caught a minute of Republican whisperer Dana Bash on CNN. She caught herself before saying “Democrat seat”, but she was reporting on what her GOP contacts were telling her. Like, they should buckle down and run good campaigns.

    O-tay, Dana.

  183. 183.

    different-church-lady

    Needle gonna make me crazy but it just swang two points back towards the blue all at once.

    (Is swang a word?)

  184. 184.

    scott (the other one)

    @Yarrow: Chiming in to say that for years my wife would develop a cough in the spring that would last for two months. Every single doctor would tell her to try OTC cough syrups, none of which ever did a thing. Finally one prescribed an inhaler and BING! she was improved in 24 hours and the cough was maybe 10% of what it had been for the rest of the spring.

  186. 186.

    SFAW

    JFC that FTFNYT needle thingy is frustrating. It just went from Saccone at 60 percent chance to Tossup as I watched.

    Anyone have any tranqs they can send me through the Intertubez?

    ETA: Hey DCL: I think it’s actually “swanged,” because it’s past something-or-other.

    ETA2: And with the “jitter” on, it’s REALLY crazy-making.

  189. 189.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    God I almost wish results were embargoed till 75 or 80% came in
    ETA: Nate Cohn is analyzing the vote in Saccade’s state lege district by education levels. Next up: Angels dancing on the head of a pin

  191. 191.

    eclare

    @satby: Hey there! Hope you feel better. Developed a cough/fatigue myself a few weeks ago, better but it hasn’t fully gone away.

  192. 192.

    B.B.A.

    One of the townships in Greene County is named Aleppo. Somebody should call Gary Johnson.

  193. 193.

    WaterGirl

    @different-church-lady: I googled swing swang swung:

    “swang. (archaic and dialectal) Simple past tense of swing. Now largely replaced by swung.”

    edit: worth noting that autocorrect was fine with swing and swung, but kept trying to change swang.

  195. 195.

    mike in dc

    @WaterGirl: “countermeasures” should be the term on everyone’s lips when a new Democratic president is sworn in. I expect her first national security team meeting to look like FDR’s White House on December 8th, 1941.

  196. 196.

    WaterGirl

    @SFAW: Just hearing you guys describe the needle swings is making me nervous. Election night scarred me for life, I think.

  198. 198.

    NotMax

    Good on MSNBC for putting on a regular Maddow program rather than going wall-to-wall election phumfering.

  200. 200.

    scott (the other one)

    @mike in dc: Yeah, there should be a Manhattan Project-like plan ready to hit the ground running on day one with a massive infrastructure overhaul the likes of which the country hasn’t seen since the 50s.

    And then the Truth and Reconciliation Commission hearings start up.

  201. 201.

    Starfish

    What is up with Green Hills, Washington County? Why is that tiny district a thing that exists? Why are there only four voters there? Did all the people who were not die-hard Trumpsters move away?

  202. 202.

    Fair Economist

    @Baud: The NYT needle is pretty good and IME is the best predictor of an election as the votes are coming in, but in an election with as much of a swing as this one no adjustment mechanism is trustworthy.

  203. 203.

    patroclus

    It don’t mean a thang if it ain’t got swang. 54-46 margin still at 8000 (42%).

    Ouch! Margin down to 5000 52-47. (50%)

  206. 206.

    Another Scott

    WaPo:
    49.1% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 52,392 54.0%
    Rick Saccone (R) 44,071 45.4%

    WaPo:
    57.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 59,600 52.3%
    Rick Saccone (R) 53,752 47.1%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  208. 208.

    Starfish

    Also, I would like to have a word with these Collier District 5 people in Alleghany County. Look at all those arrows on that one map. All the counties are more blue except that Collier District 5. Who saw Trump and said “Yes, more of that please?” Do we have a map for which region is doing the most opioids?

  210. 210.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I saw this tweet this morning, and it’s me a lot of mornings of 2018

    are Sharro @ KarlreMarks
    My favourite bit on Twitter is when you have to reverse-engineer the jokes to figure out what the news is.

    and along those lines, can anyone tell me what the thing about Tillerson and salad is? Or point me in the right direction?

  212. 212.

    Yarrow

    @satby: Sorry the inhaler didn’t work. Maybe a different one would help. I finally just stopped doing all but necessary tasks and rested a lot. I gradually got better. Took time and I’m still not 100% but I’m mostly functional now. I think I just was so weak that it’s taking time to climb back up to feeling well. Take good care of yourself.

  213. 213.

    joel hanes

    @Starfish:

    Who saw Trump and said “Yes, more of that please?”

    Low-info racists, regligious bigots, gun-humpers, misogynists, and tax haters.

  214. 214.

    B.B.A.

    @Starfish:

    Green Hills is a borough in Washington County, Pennsylvania, United States. The borough was formed in 1978 when a local businessman worked to secede from the dry township of South Franklin after voters there defeated a referendum that would allow alcohol sales at his country club. The population was 18 at the 2000 census, making it the third least populous borough in the state; only S.N.P.J. and Centralia had fewer residents.

  216. 216.

    raven

    Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren’t going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.

  219. 219.

    MFA

    @satby: I’m going on a month. Congestion, fatigue. No fever. Doc is treating me for pneumonia. But it just won’t die.

  226. 226.

    Mike

    @japa21: They must wait until the Democratic Party-heavy districts report so that the Republicans will know how to calculate the number of votes they report.

  230. 230.

    japa21

    That explains why there are no marks on that county even though they are showing votes. So apparently the county is giving results but just a running tally and not breaking it down by precinct.

  232. 232.

    Another Scott

    WaPo:
    60.5% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 63,595 52.7%
    Rick Saccone (R) 56,427 46.7%

    62.4% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 66,428 52.8%
    Rick Saccone (R) 58,545 46.6%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  233. 233.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @eclare: thanks– got it.

    new report in the Wall Street Journal claims that President Donald Trump ordered outgoing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to eat wilted vegetables that were served to the two men by Chinese hosts.
    Sources tell the Journal that Trump and Tillerson were served a limp-looking Cesar Salad last November while in China as part of a five-nation tour of Asia.
    Trump feared that leaving the salads alone would offend their Chinese hosts, but he didn’t want to be the one to take the plunge himself.
    “Rex, eat the salad,” Trump told his secretary of state.

  235. 235.

    B.B.A.

    @JMG: SNPJ is another country club that formed its own borough to get a liquor license. Centralia, population 7, is a coal mining town that was mostly evacuated after the mine caught fire.

  236. 236.

    Aleta

    @scott (the other one):
    printing out what @scott (the other one) said above:

    * Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

    Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren’t going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.


    We’re still arguing over what to do about this, but it is a distinct possibility that we will turn it off. We can’t responsibly model the result without data from the most GOP 1/3 of the district. And, well, we did make sure to write this in advance, in case we had to.

    (An explanation they wrote in advance is at @scott t.o.o’s link. Doesn’t copy here.)

    

  237. 237.

    efgoldman

    @Another Scott:

    49.1% reporting

    Unless they tell the clients what the pollsters think they want to hear – always a possibility in RWNJ fantasyland – the internal polling in dozens, maybe hundreds of districts has to be absolutely terrifying for them. This is looking like a mirror image of 2010.
    All you fraidy cats and chicken littles take a pill and a nap.

  240. 240.

    chris

    Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren't going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) 14 March 2018

  241. 241.

    satby

    @MFA: yep, exactly what I had, but I knew it wasn’t pneumonia because I’ve had that multiple times. Still was put on prophylactic antibiotics but they really didn’t help me get better, I just didn’t develop pneumonia. And none of us are sick enough to be hospitalized for it to be better identified.
    Here’s hoping we all shake it off soon!

  246. 246.

    mike in dc

    @chris: Well, with about 80k votes outstanding(spitballing here), Saccone needs to win those around 44k-36k or thereabouts.

  247. 247.

    Matt McIrvin

    @SFAW: They’re reporting totals, just not breaking it down by precinct.

    Looks very close, in any event. The precincts that haven’t reported yet are mostly red ones, so it’s going to get narrow.

  248. 248.

    Elizabelle

    WRT people suffering lingering illnesses and fatigue: a Facebook friend suggested that some of it might be tied to Trump fear and fatigue, and I think there might be something to that.

    I guess the control group would be the troglodytes who are fine with Trump and all the disruption and malfeasance; have no idea how they’re doing healthwise.

  251. 251.

    Another Scott

    WaPo:
    71.0% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 75,152 51.5%
    Rick Saccone (R) 69,964 47.9%

    72.0% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 76,181 51.5%
    Rick Saccone (R) 70,781 47.9%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  253. 253.

    Mary G

    Breaking: Westmoreland just jumped up to 77% reporting. Lamb (D) holding steady there at 43%. That's right about where he needs to be…but just barely. #PA18— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018

  255. 255.

    opiejeanne

    @satby: That describes what I had for two months. Steroids and antibiotics, I didn’t, then I did, then I didn’t have pneumonia. I went to the doctor every other week during that time and the best thing they did was as prescribe a cough syrup that would help me sleep and was non-codeine.

  257. 257.

    raven

    @opiejeanne: I turned down the codeine at first but then gave in. I had this weird whistle when I breathed at night. . . I though there was a cell phone under the bed.

  260. 260.

    guachi

    Dave Wasserman in an earlier tweet said the results needed to be
    Allegheny 58%
    Westmoreland 43%
    Washington 47%
    Greene 41%

    for Lamb to win.
    He’s currently at
    Allegheny 58.04%
    Westmoreland 43.09%
    Washington 49.76%
    Greene 41.70%

    so barely above estimates.

  261. 261.

    Elizabelle

    @Matt McIrvin: I, of course, hope they all have one foot in the grave and will shuffle off this mortal coil, soonest. So we can have nice things.

  262. 262.

    Another Scott

    WaPo:
    74.2% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 78,686 51.7%
    Rick Saccone (R) 72,654 47.7%

    Big jump:

    86.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 91,687 50.4%
    Rick Saccone (R) 89,194 49.0%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  265. 265.

    jefft452

    @BC in Illinois: “otherwise there is World War III, and everybody is blaming YOU!”

    Haven’t seen that movie in, what? 50 years? And its still quotable

  269. 269.

    opiejeanne

    @raven: They did prescribe the codeine version and after the second dose I remembered why I shouldn’t take it. I threw up for nearly 24 hours. That’s when they switched me to something that doesn’t do that to me.

  270. 270.

    Davebo

    It’s a nail biter! I know some would say even being close is a win, but it’s not a win.

  271. 271.

    mainmata

    With 87% reporting it’s 50-49 Lamb leading. Lamb has been surprisingly competitive in Washington County. This may end up close to a tie or Lamb may hold on barely.

  276. 276.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Dave Wasserman @ Redistrict
    Lamb (D) lead down to 2,493 votes (1.4%) w/ 87% of precincts reporting. The remaining precincts lean *slightly* Saccone. This might be a good time to look up PA’s recount provisions. #PA18

    oy

  284. 284.

    Another Scott

    WaPo:
    87.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 93,388 50.5%
    Rick Saccone (R) 90,566 48.9%

    90.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 97,208 50.2%
    Rick Saccone (R) 95,232 49.2%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  286. 286.

    guachi

    Prediction: Lamb loses by 123 votes. Runs again. Wins by 5.7% in the rematch in November.

  290. 290.

    dmsilev

    Conor Lamb leads by 1.0 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 91 percent of precincts fully reporting.

    Conor Lamb leads by 0.5 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 95 percent of precincts fully reporting.

    What’s the recount threshold? Anyone know?

  291. 291.

    Mary G

    Needless to say, the fact #PA18 is headed for a photo finish is pretty bad news for Republicans nationally.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018

    Lamb winning would stiil be better.

  292. 292.

    Fair Economist

    Getting cautiously optimistic. The outstanding votes lean R but not overwhelmingly so.

    And as I post a huge bloc comes in from Westmoreland. The remaining votes might even lean D at this point but holy cow this is close.

  306. 306.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    Win or Lose

    Dave Wasserman
    ‏@Redistrict

    Needless to say, the fact #PA18 is headed for a photo finish is pretty bad news for Republicans nationally.

    37 replies 324 retweets 787 likes

  307. 307.

    Another Scott

    WaPo:
    94.9% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 101,907 49.9%
    Rick Saccone (R) 100,979 49.5%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  308. 308.

    Lapassionara

    Just checked The Atlantic, and it reports a Libertarian candidate with 1500 or so votes. Really?

  309. 309.

    dmsilev

    How close is this election? Close enough that the votes for the Libertarian candidate could have been decisive.

  310. 310.

    JaneSays

    Nevermind, misread the last count. It’s currently a 928 vote margin for Lamb.

    Which will still almost certainly trigger a recount.

  312. 312.

    Fair Economist

    @guachi: No state can require a House member to reside in the district, only the state, per the Constitution.

  315. 315.

    NotMax

    FYI.

    Pennsylvania uses paper and Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) systems for its elections. The state does not require a voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) when conducting elections. According to the National Academy of Sciences, a voter-verified paper audit trail “consists of physical paper records of voter ballots as voters have cast them on an electronic voting system. In the event that an election recount or audit is called for, the VVPAT provides a supporting record.”
    Pennsylvania recount procedures

    A recount of ballots is required in an election district if three qualified electors in that district file a petition alleging that fraud or error occurred in the tabulation of votes or the marking of election ballots. Petitioners are not required to “specify in their petition the particular act of fraud or error which they believe to have been committed nor to offer evidence to substantiate the allegations of their petition.” The petition must be accompanied by a $50 deposit, which will be retained by election officials if it is determined that fraud or error did not occur. This deposit is due to each county in which a recount is requested.

    The secretary of the commonwealth must order a recount if any of the following conditions are met:

    a candidate for statewide office was defeated by 0.5 percent or less of all votes cast for the office
    a statewide ballot measure was approved or rejected by 0.5 percent or less of all votes cast for the measure

    Source

  318. 318.

    Starfish

    @Lapassionara: I swear. I am going to just punch Libertarians in the nuts on principle. There is one dude on Twitter right now saying that United was right in today’s “flight attendant gets a puppy killed” episode.

  321. 321.

    lgerard

    So Drew Miller, the Libertarian may be the deciding factor for the good guys

    C’mon invisible hand!!

  322. 322.

    Another Scott

    WaPo:
    95.4% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 102,839 50.0%
    Rick Saccone (R) 101,707 49.4%

    (-0.6%, -1132 votes)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  324. 324.

    mainmata

    Doesn’t look like Conor’s going to prevail but, if he does, it would be by almost literally a handful of votes. In any event, it would be a real Pyrrhic victory for the GOP if Saccone wins.

  330. 330.

    mike in dc

    @Omnes Omnibus: The idea of forming a new organization has occasionally been bandied about. It would consist only of the most “democratic” nations of the world. I’d use the criteria of the Democracy Index, where the US is (just barely) a “flawed democracy”, downgraded from “functional democracy”. Hybrid states might have provisional membership, provided they work steadily on internal reforms. Authoritarian states would be excluded.

  332. 332.

    patrick II

    I am trying to figure out what is the advantage to Republicans of holding back counts and not reporting by precinct in Westmoreland.

  339. 339.

    jonas

    @hellslittlestangel: The fact that this is even close and forced the GOP to pour millions into what should have been a no-brainer safe district is a win. Imagine some Republican coming within .5 percent of ousting a Dem in Berkeley, CA. That’s how nuts Lamb’s candidacy was. And he still might actually win!

    Courage!

  340. 340.

    jonas

    @El Caganer: If he had nominated Tom Cotton, the bombers would be all but airborne 2 minutes after his confirmation vote. But yeah, Pompeo is going to be bad. How bad, I’m not sure, as long as Mattis is still at Defense, but who knows how long that’s going to last…

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