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Come on, man.

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You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2018 / PA-18 results open thread

PA-18 results open thread

by David Anderson|  March 13, 20188:00 pm| 342 Comments

This post is in: Election 2018, Open Threads

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Have at it as the polls close in the special election for Pennsylvania-18.

Open thread

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Previous Post: « Colorado Meet-Up and March For Our Lives
Next Post: PA 18 Special Election Part 2 »

Reader Interactions

342Comments

  1. 1.

    Trentrunner

    March 13, 2018 at 8:01 pm

    Something that actually matters!

  2. 2.

    Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)

    March 13, 2018 at 8:01 pm

    Here we go.

  3. 3.

    billcoop4

    March 13, 2018 at 8:02 pm

    Fingers crossed, although I suspect my distant relatives in that areas are not …..blue.

    BC

  4. 4.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 8:02 pm

    I really shouldn’t be this keyed up about this race, but I am. The devil made me do it. Rather Trump made me do it. Um, that’s the same thing, isn’t it.

  5. 5.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:03 pm

    Crossing my fingers for Connor Lamb, and PA.

  6. 6.

    Corner Stone

    March 13, 2018 at 8:03 pm

    Looks like premature posting execution. Don’t worry. It happens to a lot of Front Pagers. Or so I hear.

  7. 7.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 8:03 pm

    NYT Hypnotic Election Needle. Page says they expect first results around 8:20 Eastern.

  8. 8.

    Snarki, child of Loki

    March 13, 2018 at 8:04 pm

    Shitty cold snowy weather today.

    Those with WHITE HOT RAGE won’t notice.

  9. 9.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 8:04 pm

    BRD Polling
    ‏ @brd_polling
    1m1 minute ago

    BRD #ExitPolls for #PA18!

    Lamb – 52 (+5)
    Saccone – 47
    Miller – 1

    Trump Approval
    Approve – 48
    Disapprove – 48
    Unsure – 4

  10. 10.

    Corner Stone

    March 13, 2018 at 8:04 pm

    @Trentrunner: #AllPostsMatter !

  11. 11.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 8:05 pm

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: So, taking that at face value (I know, I know), four percent of the voters approved of Trump but voted for Lamb. That’s a very confused bunch of people.

  12. 12.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:06 pm

    It’ll be close in a +20 Trump district where the GOP far outspent us. Winning it outright would be icing on the cake.

  13. 13.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:06 pm

    @dmsilev: Just seeing those words in blue (your link) gives me flashbacks to election night Nov 2016. I will never be able to look at one of those again.

  14. 14.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:07 pm

    @dmsilev: Vote splitters are funny people.

  15. 15.

    different-church-lady

    March 13, 2018 at 8:07 pm

    @Baud: It’s an age of political incoherency.

  16. 16.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:07 pm

    Just a few hours ago I started to wonder about possible interference in voting in this special election. However it comes out, I hope the exit polls are close to the results.

  17. 17.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 8:08 pm

    I can’t quit the New York Times needle. It’s what told me Hillary would lose and I kept posting here that there was trouble long before most of the rest of the Juicers succumbed to reality.

  18. 18.

    Corner Stone

    March 13, 2018 at 8:08 pm

    Oooo, I am *loving* that tie Chris Hayes is wearing tonight.

  19. 19.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:08 pm

    @Corner Stone: serious or sarcasm?

  20. 20.

    FlipYrWhig

    March 13, 2018 at 8:09 pm

    @guachi: No one wants to miss a chance to panic and despair, right? :/

  21. 21.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 8:12 pm

    Evan McMurry
    ‏ @evanmcmurry

    #PA18 has generated 373,000 in the last three days.

    Conor Lamb seems to be owning Twitter; three of the top associated hashtags are pro-Lamb, and the five top #PA18 tweets are from Conor Lamb or his supporters.

    I guess Putin didn’t want to invest in this particular race.

  22. 22.

    Corner Stone

    March 13, 2018 at 8:14 pm

    @WaterGirl: I would have further comments but MSNBC’s god damned bullshit bottom line chyron is keeping me from seeing it any longer.

  23. 23.

    Ignatius Donnelly

    March 13, 2018 at 8:14 pm

    @dmsilev: That’s basically the “Tsar is good but his counsellors are evil” faction. They’re aware that the GOP is screwing them, but they don’t blame Trump. A key target group for Lamb, believe it or not.

  24. 24.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:15 pm

    @guachi: You can’t quit their needle, and I shudder at the thought of ever looking at one of those again. Interesting that we have such different responses to the same thing.

    It takes all kinds, as my dad used to say.

  25. 25.

    Corner Stone

    March 13, 2018 at 8:15 pm

    I am not sure why MSNBC is displaying CURRENT HOUSE CONTROL numbers when this is one race that won’t tip the balance either way.

  26. 26.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    March 13, 2018 at 8:16 pm

    I hope Lamb wins and shows up at a victory rally in a Sheperd Fairey inspired Nancy Pelosi tee-shirt

  27. 27.

    Major Major Major Major

    March 13, 2018 at 8:17 pm

    @WaterGirl: did they finally take off the autojitter?

  28. 28.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 8:17 pm

    @Corner Stone: House, Senate. Really, what are they thinking. Is this practice run for November?

  29. 29.

    efgoldman

    March 13, 2018 at 8:17 pm

    @japa21:

    Trump made me do it. Um, that’s the same thing, isn’t it.

    He is much too dumb to be the devil. Not even an apprentice fallen angel

  30. 30.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:17 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Funny thought, but I’m also glad you aren’t his campaign manager!

  31. 31.

    schrodingers_cat

    March 13, 2018 at 8:17 pm

    Did you guys see Snooze Hour? Apparently, Pompeo is going to make the State Dept great again, because he has the President’s ear.

  32. 32.

    Sloane Ranger

    March 13, 2018 at 8:18 pm

    David so excited it looks like he hit the post button twice.

    Cheering for some Lamb with mint sauce from across the pond.

  33. 33.

    Uncle Ebeneezer

    March 13, 2018 at 8:18 pm

    BREAKING: Democrats on the House Intel Committee have just released a detailed report of dozens of key witnesses that Republicans refused to allow the committee to interview.

    Document shows a clear violation of their duty to America. See below:

    https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/973711988059770880

  34. 34.

    David Anderson

    March 13, 2018 at 8:18 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: you can click a button for the flutter

  35. 35.

    Tinare

    March 13, 2018 at 8:19 pm

    Turnout in Mt. Lebanon was reportedly high. Affluent, educated, populous part of the district. My relatives there are Lamb supporters. Fingers are crossed for a win.

  36. 36.

    scott (the other one)

    March 13, 2018 at 8:20 pm

    @Sloane Ranger: I like that he bigfooted his own post.

  37. 37.

    Major Major Major Major

    March 13, 2018 at 8:21 pm

    @scott (the other one): with his own post!

  38. 38.

    Matt McIrvin

    March 13, 2018 at 8:21 pm

    As someone on LGM pointed out, whether Lamb actually wins is not that consequential: the district is going to be eliminated anyway, and the fact that it’s even close in this district is great news for November. But a win would be good.

  39. 39.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:21 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: I’m serious. Just the thought of looking at the needle gives me the willies. I have no idea whether they have done that or not.

    They are bastards for building in the jitteringt in the first place!

  40. 40.

    scott (the other one)

    March 13, 2018 at 8:22 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: We have reached Peak Bigfoot? (Undoubtedly good news for John McCain.)

  41. 41.

    different-church-lady

    March 13, 2018 at 8:23 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: In my view, it has significant impact on the narrative: “Dems can win anywhere” vs. “Oh, look how close the horserace is” is big as far as psychological edge goes.

  42. 42.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:23 pm

    @David Anderson: Does the button say “masochists, click here”?

  43. 43.

    scott (the other one)

    March 13, 2018 at 8:23 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: A win would be good, as (among other things) it would likely cause even more incumbent GOPers to retire, making their races even more competitive.

  44. 44.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:24 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: with his own post! with the same post!

  45. 45.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 8:25 pm

    The Needle is nice because it automatically does the math on the “but the results of the urban areas haven’t come in yet!!!!” mantra you always hear.

  46. 46.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:25 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Though I get that the district is redrawn, so this is only until November, I don’t see how it’s not better for him to win tonight than to lose. Winning > Losing. Plus the humiliation of the R candidate is important.

  47. 47.

    Major Major Major Major

    March 13, 2018 at 8:26 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: @scott (the other one): @WaterGirl: yup, psychology and narrative are hugely important in elections.

  48. 48.

    JR

    March 13, 2018 at 8:27 pm

    @different-church-lady: Given that Doug Jones won a considerably more consequential race just 4 months ago, the narrative doesn’t last long.

  49. 49.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:27 pm

    @JR: Agreed. The pessimists will be back soon enough.

  50. 50.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:28 pm

    @JR: I don’t think anyone has forgotten about Doug Jones; I hear it referenced often.

  51. 51.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 8:28 pm

    BEJAN
    ‏ @JEFFGORDON5
    1m1 minute ago

    This #pa18 hearing illegal out of state voters could be there and this very illegal it happend in Alabama so #Democrats are desperate anymore #RedWaveRising2018

    Russians need to work on their conversational english

  52. 52.

    eclare

    March 13, 2018 at 8:28 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: I admit my own psychology could use some good news….

  53. 53.

    different-church-lady

    March 13, 2018 at 8:29 pm

    @JR: Hypothetical: is Lamb on the edge of victory tonight if Moore had squeaked out a win?

  54. 54.

    mike in dc

    March 13, 2018 at 8:29 pm

    @JR: Isn’t this the last congressional special election before November, though? Unless Thad Cochran’s replacement is up before then.

  55. 55.

    Major Major Major Major

    March 13, 2018 at 8:29 pm

    Well, as usual I have therapy during the election returns, you kids keep it real!

  56. 56.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:30 pm

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch Who is this Jeff Gordons? He writes like he’s Tonto on The Lone Ranger or Hop Sing on Bonanza.

  57. 57.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:30 pm

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Google translate could probably do a better job than that.

  58. 58.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:30 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: we’ll miss you.

  59. 59.

    Major Major Major Major

    March 13, 2018 at 8:30 pm

    @WaterGirl: don’t lie.

  60. 60.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:31 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: I meant that! You goof.

  61. 61.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 8:31 pm

    500 plus votes counted, Lamb up 52.5 to 47. We can all go to bed now. It’s in the bag.

  62. 62.

    different-church-lady

    March 13, 2018 at 8:31 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: How con-veeeeeeeen-ient.

  63. 63.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:31 pm

    OT. Beware!

    HELENA, Mont. (AP) — A man who registered as a Green Party candidate for Montana’s U.S. Senate race was on the state Republican Party’s payroll and heads a newly formed anti-tax group, according to a review of election documents.

    Timothy Adams filed as a challenger Monday against Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who faces a tough re-election campaign, in a race where a Green Party candidate could siphon votes from the Democrat.

    AP

  64. 64.

    different-church-lady

    March 13, 2018 at 8:32 pm

    @japa21: It’s two days after Daylight Savings Time — I won’t be able to sleep for a week.

  65. 65.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:32 pm

    @Baud: rat fuckers, all of them.

  66. 66.

    JMG

    March 13, 2018 at 8:32 pm

    @mike in dc: No, there’s the one in Arizona for Trent Franks’ old seat and I think there’s one in Ohio, too.

  67. 67.

    remima

    March 13, 2018 at 8:33 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: Yes, I had to turn it off. WTF??
    I hate watch the US politics crap on the Snooze Hour, but some of the other reporting is interesting news that I don’t see elsewhere, so I can’t quite quit it.

  68. 68.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 8:33 pm

    @WaterGirl: He’s trying to pretend to be a NASCAR fan. Jeff Gordon is a noted NASCAR driver.

  69. 69.

    different-church-lady

    March 13, 2018 at 8:33 pm

    @WaterGirl: Yeah, and Timothy Adams is too.

  70. 70.

    Corner Stone

    March 13, 2018 at 8:33 pm

    I am not going to link to it, It’s in NYT. But this is one example of a brazillion why I never want to hear another word from any of the Obama admin ever again.
    Samantha Power: How Mike Pompeo Could Save the State Department

  71. 71.

    Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)

    March 13, 2018 at 8:33 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: During an election is probably a good time for therapy.

  72. 72.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 8:34 pm

    TCM is running a Stormy Daniels classic, “War and Piece”.

  73. 73.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 8:35 pm

    Rick Perry to the VA, that’s just what the fuck we need.

  74. 74.

    fuckwit

    March 13, 2018 at 8:36 pm

    @Baud: i thought lamb far outspent saccone

  75. 75.

    zhena gogolia

    March 13, 2018 at 8:36 pm

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:

    “this very illegal” sounds like Cecily Strong doing Melania

  76. 76.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:36 pm

    @Corner Stone: Is it praise of Pompeo or advice to Pompeo?

  77. 77.

    geg6

    March 13, 2018 at 8:36 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    He’ll run in the new 17th (my district) against the odious Keith Rothfus. A loss for a Rothfus is a most delicious thought.

  78. 78.

    Davebo

    March 13, 2018 at 8:37 pm

    Seen on Twitter.. Cute.

    White House Job Interview

    “So where do you see yourself in five minutes?”

  79. 79.

    Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)

    March 13, 2018 at 8:37 pm

    @raven: I feel like I should know this but I don’t. If someone is confirmed to one position, and they’re moved to a new one, I assume they have to be confirmed again. Is that right? Trump can’t just assume a confirmation is good everywhere forever, can he?

  80. 80.

    different-church-lady

    March 13, 2018 at 8:37 pm

    1% in. Lamb leading by 52%. If this holds, Lamb wins by 5200%!

  81. 81.

    Jeffro

    March 13, 2018 at 8:38 pm

    @Corner Stone: say whaaaat?!?

    Man, that’s stupid

  82. 82.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:38 pm

    @fuckwit: I’ve heard the opposite, by a lot.

  83. 83.

    BC in Illinois

    March 13, 2018 at 8:38 pm

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:

    Russians need to work on their conversational english

    “E-MEHR-gency! e-MEHR-gency! Everyone to get from street!”

  84. 84.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:39 pm

    @Corner Stone: brazillion

    readership capture!

  85. 85.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:40 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): I certainly could have used it, starting Nov 8 of 2016.

  86. 86.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:40 pm

    @Davebo: Heh.

  87. 87.

    scott (the other one)

    March 13, 2018 at 8:40 pm

    This guy’s twitter feed is interesting, assuming it’s true.

    https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/973719797925142529

  88. 88.

    SgrAstar

    March 13, 2018 at 8:40 pm

    I feel like I’m having a flashback…to November 2016. Trying to remain calm and optimistic. Surely our fellow citizens won’t screw us over again…..

  89. 89.

    B.B.A.

    March 13, 2018 at 8:40 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): New Senate confirmation each time. Otherwise Garland (already a confirmed circuit judge) would be on the High Court.

  90. 90.

    Moeman

    March 13, 2018 at 8:40 pm

    https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/pennsylvania/special-election/mar-13/

  91. 91.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 8:40 pm

    @BC in Illinois: Ah, Whittaker. Walt…

  92. 92.

    Gin & Tonic

    March 13, 2018 at 8:40 pm

    @raven: Doesn’t the dude already have a job?

  93. 93.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:41 pm

    @raven: There are 3 things he’d like to fix in the VA, but he can’t recall the third one.

    edit: not to make light of that, he would surely be a disaster. Talk about disrespecting the troops.

  94. 94.

    rikyrah

    March 13, 2018 at 8:41 pm

    @Baud:
    He used to be paid by the GOP

  95. 95.

    Yarrow

    March 13, 2018 at 8:41 pm

    @raven: But the glasses make him smart!

  96. 96.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:41 pm

    @SgrAstar: This race and the 2016 election aren’t comparable.

  97. 97.

    mike in dc

    March 13, 2018 at 8:41 pm

    @JMG: Yeah, I researched my own query and saw that. Those are long shots, to say the least. Incumbents got 68% and 66% in 2016, respectively. Worth a shot, of course.

  98. 98.

    Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)

    March 13, 2018 at 8:41 pm

    @BC in Illinois: I remember that movie!

  99. 99.

    Ignatius Donnelly

    March 13, 2018 at 8:42 pm

    @Baud: You’re both right: Lamb out-raised Saccone 5-1, but outside spending for Saccone was way ahead of Lamb.

  100. 100.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:42 pm

    @rikyrah: For all we know, he still is.

  101. 101.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:42 pm

    @fuckwit: I don’t know the final spending totals, but I know that Rs put in millions at the end.

  102. 102.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 8:42 pm

    @different-church-lady:

    Conor Lamb leads by 21 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 3 percent of precincts fully reporting.

    Seems plausible to me.

  103. 103.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:43 pm

    @Ignatius Donnelly: Thanks for clarifying.

  104. 104.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 8:43 pm

    Lamb up by 20% with 3% in. But I suspect there are a lot of strong GOP precincts not reporting yet.

  105. 105.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:43 pm

    @geg6: Plus, a proven winner carries a lot of weight. I think this win could make a huge difference. If I weren’t so lazy, I could list 10 different ways right off the top of my head.

  106. 106.

    zhena gogolia

    March 13, 2018 at 8:43 pm

    @Ignatius Donnelly:

    Hey, I was about to say that!

  107. 107.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 8:43 pm

    @WaterGirl: Something north of $10 million by the time the dust settles. Which is a hell of a lot for any House race, never mind one which the GOP was supposed to win easily.

  108. 108.

    Corner Stone

    March 13, 2018 at 8:43 pm

    @Baud: Fantasy.
    “If Mike Pompeo, the director of the C.I.A., wins confirmation as Rex Tillerson’s replacement as secretary of state, fixing this would become his responsibility. He can’t change the president, but he can make it his mission to revitalize America’s diplomatic corps and get back to trying to solve problems in the real world.”

  109. 109.

    Divf

    March 13, 2018 at 8:44 pm

    @dmsilev: I’m now past hoping for a win to hoping for a major beat-down.

  110. 110.

    different-church-lady

    March 13, 2018 at 8:44 pm

    @japa21:

    I suspect there are a lot of strong GOP precincts not reporting yet.

    Maybe they’re too ashamed to say anything.

  111. 111.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 8:44 pm

    @WaterGirl: He was in the fucking air force.

  112. 112.

    efgoldman

    March 13, 2018 at 8:45 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    because he has the President’s ear.

    And the letter carrier’s nose.

  113. 113.

    Frankensteinbeck

    March 13, 2018 at 8:45 pm

    @SgrAstar:
    If we lose, eh. It would be a nice pickup. This is not even close to a critical race. If anything, losing would probably piss off the activists who have been driving our wave more.

  114. 114.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:45 pm

    @Corner Stone:

    Meh. People like to give Dems “advice” all the time, and it’s annoying as hell. Unless there’s something else, this seems like turnabout is fair play to me.

  115. 115.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:46 pm

    @japa21: Like St. Petersburg.

  116. 116.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    March 13, 2018 at 8:46 pm

    I know it’s meaningless this early, but Lamb just jumped to a 61-39 lead with 5% reporting. Whoa!

  117. 117.

    B.B.A.

    March 13, 2018 at 8:47 pm

    @japa21: Map shows most of the precincts to report so far are in the Pittsburgh burbs. The Pennsyltuckians have yet to make their mark.

  118. 118.

    PaulWartenberg

    March 13, 2018 at 8:47 pm

    please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout okay?

  119. 119.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:47 pm

    TOO EARLY TO CALL!

  120. 120.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:47 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): They do have to be confirmed again, but it’s usually a given that if they made it through for one, they will breeze through all subsequent confirmations.

    Look at Leon Panetta, he served in several positions. I am really, hoping though, that there are some key NO votes as a way to send a little feedback to the president. Hoping there are at least 2 Rs who actually give a shit about this country.

    edit: and EVERY SINGLE DEM.

  121. 121.

    Gin & Tonic

    March 13, 2018 at 8:47 pm

    @japa21: They’re waiting to see how many votes they have to report.

  122. 122.

    Corner Stone

    March 13, 2018 at 8:47 pm

    @Baud: Give me a break.

  123. 123.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 8:48 pm

    If Kornacki’s got khakis on, you know it’s election night.

  124. 124.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 8:48 pm

    @different-church-lady: I like that. Basic point is, the lead is going to shrink a lot and we shouldn’t start getting all nervous when it does.

  125. 125.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    March 13, 2018 at 8:48 pm

    @B.B.A.: how was the roads up in the hills and hollers today?

  126. 126.

    Ignatius Donnelly

    March 13, 2018 at 8:48 pm

    @WaterGirl: I’ve seen analysts on Twitter reporting a swing of 20 to 2y percentage points in the precincts counted so far.

  127. 127.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 8:48 pm

    @Corner Stone: I’m not reading the whole piece. I really don’t care.

  128. 128.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:49 pm

    @rikyrah: Probably until about 45 minutes ago.

  129. 129.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 8:49 pm

    Nate Cohn
    ‏ @Nate_Cohn

    Good news for Lamb: He appears to be running ahead of expectations in fragmentary returns in white, working class, traditionally Dem Greene County. He inches ahead in our estimate.

    23 replies 173 retweets 498 likes

  130. 130.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 8:49 pm

    @B.B.A.: Very early yet, but encouraging. NYT’s analysis of what their needle is showing:

    It’s early, very early. But good news for Conor Lamb: He appears to be running ahead of expectations in white working-class traditionally Dem Greene County. He inches ahead in our estimate. On average, Lamb is running 3 points ahead of our estimates in fragmentary returns.

  131. 131.

    geg6

    March 13, 2018 at 8:49 pm

    @japa21:

    Yeah, pretty sure that’s all Allegheny County, the more affluent and educated suburb. But even still, that’s a damn big spread for the area.

  132. 132.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:49 pm

    @Yarrow: If he wore 3 pairs of glasses at the same time, maybe he could remember all 3 points to his plan.

  133. 133.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 8:49 pm

    It’ll be interesting not just to see the lead the R gets from the R areas but turnout, too. I suspect we’ll see some quick changes if turnout is different than expected.

  134. 134.

    Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)

    March 13, 2018 at 8:50 pm

    @WaterGirl: That’s more or less what I thought. Thanks.

  135. 135.

    Yarrow

    March 13, 2018 at 8:50 pm

    Apparently people are still in line to vote.

  136. 136.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 8:51 pm

    @japa21: Oh no! It just went from 60-40 to 58-42!! I’m getting really worried now…

  137. 137.

    chris

    March 13, 2018 at 8:51 pm

    @Corner Stone: She must be talking about a different Pompeo.

  138. 138.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:53 pm

    @raven:

    He was in the fucking air force.

    I’m not sure how that is significant.

    There’s not a single R that would be put up for that position that actually gives a shit about making/keeping the VA a good place, run by the government, not privatized. Plus, the guy is not competent.

    edited

  139. 139.

    Gin & Tonic

    March 13, 2018 at 8:53 pm

    @chris: Always sounds like a 70’s porn star to me: Harry Reems, Ron Jeremy and Mike Pompeo.

  140. 140.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 8:53 pm

    @WaterGirl: It is to me.

  141. 141.

    efgoldman

    March 13, 2018 at 8:54 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady):

    Trump can’t just assume a confirmation is good everywhere forever, can he?

    He can, and will, assume whatever the fuck his mini-brain conjures up, but he’d be wrong.
    Each nominee for each office requires senate confirmation. Usually someone in an existing, already confirmed cabinet job slides thru with a couple of pro forma hearings and a vote. We have left usually far, far behind.

  142. 142.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:54 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: I wish I could laugh at that.

  143. 143.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 8:55 pm

    FTFNYT has it back to even. Not a single precinct in Westmoreland County has reported yet. That seems suspicious to me.

  144. 144.

    Mary G

    March 13, 2018 at 8:55 pm

    Never heard of this guy before, but he says he’s a GOP consultant and I’m hoping he’s right:

    Saccone is losing Bethel Park precincts by 10-15 points. This thing is over. #pa18— Mark Davin Harris (@markdharris) March 14, 2018

  145. 145.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 8:55 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: What about Dirk Diggler and David Dickinson?

  146. 146.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 8:55 pm

    Nate Cohn
    ‏ @Nate_Cohn

    Our expectations supposed a very strong Dem turnout in the well-educated suburbs around Pittsburgh, weaker in working class areas. That’s being materializing.

    I guess working class whites are demobilizing now that War on Christmas as been won.

  147. 147.

    Peale

    March 13, 2018 at 8:57 pm

    @Corner Stone: hot take: by not being Mike Pompeo.

  148. 148.

    Gin & Tonic

    March 13, 2018 at 8:57 pm

    Midnight GMT has come and gone, and Russia has not responded to Theresa May. Now what?

  149. 149.

    chris

    March 13, 2018 at 8:57 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: I don’t dare google that but he has been a Koch Bros. testicle cozy (thanks, Driftglass) for the last twenty years.

  150. 150.

    Corner Stone

    March 13, 2018 at 8:58 pm

    @Baud: It doesn’t get any better and it does not survive “Meh”.

  151. 151.

    Gin & Tonic

    March 13, 2018 at 8:58 pm

    @patroclus: Perhaps I don’t know the genre as well as you.

  152. 152.

    Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)

    March 13, 2018 at 8:58 pm

    CNN’s front page shows results as they come in, though without analysis of whether those results beat, meet, or lag expectations. At the moment, they show 16% in, Lamb leading 58-40

  153. 153.

    Mike J

    March 13, 2018 at 8:58 pm

    @Mary G: It ain’t over til it’s over.

    FTFNYT does have one good thing, precinct maps. Watch the ones in the top right. Lamb needs to run up the score there. 20 points is a good start, but it’s going to tighten.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

  154. 154.

    Matt McIrvin

    March 13, 2018 at 8:58 pm

    @dmsilev: Not any more–their model has swung toward a Saccone win, but with a tiny margin and a big spread.

  155. 155.

    HumboldtBlue

    March 13, 2018 at 8:59 pm

    Come on fellow native-staters, make the Bloody Buckets proud!

  156. 156.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 8:59 pm

    Dave Wasserman
    ‏ @Redistrict

    The most GOP-heavy Allegheny precinct that’s reported so far (Jefferson Hills) is only at 54.7% of its 2016 turnout, while most Dem-heavy precinct (Mt. Lebanon 5-7) is at 75.2% of its 2016 turnout.

    That mirrors 2017 specials and it’s pretty ominous for Saccone (R). #PA18

    Win or lose tonight, the fact that turnout for Dems is out pacing GOP by 20.5% is big for the fall.

  157. 157.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 8:59 pm

    @Corner Stone: Haven’t read the story, but Pompeo going from a money-is-no-object-black-budget agency to a let’s-cut-the-budget-by-30-percent agency is going to be eye-opening for him. No matter how good a “manager” he is.

    Dunno what Power’s thinking, and I don’t really want to spend time on it. Of course a good manager “can” do lots of things, but Trump didn’t pick him to fix Tillerson’s gutting of state. He picked him to continue gutting State and be a yes man.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  158. 158.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 8:59 pm

    @raven: sorry to be dense. Maybe I misunderstood your original comment.

    Rick Perry to the VA, that’s just what the fuck we need.

    Was that serious or sarcastic? Do you think his being in the air force was a good thing?

  159. 159.

    rikyrah

    March 13, 2018 at 9:00 pm

    @PaulWartenberg:
    Um, you want a +5 blowout??

  160. 160.

    eclare

    March 13, 2018 at 9:00 pm

    @WaterGirl: He’ll forget a pair….

  161. 161.

    satby

    March 13, 2018 at 9:00 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: they responded. They killed another guy.

  162. 162.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 9:01 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Diggler was Mark Wahlberg’s character in Boogie Nights and Dickinson was Trump’s name with Stormy Daniels.

  163. 163.

    mike in dc

    March 13, 2018 at 9:01 pm

    Coming this November:
    http://wac.450f.edgecastcdn.net/80450F/comicsalliance.com/files/2014/04/AC03.jpg

  164. 164.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 9:02 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Did you see the two articles related to this on Lawfare today? I thought they were both terrific, and I learned a lot.

    Let me know if you want links.

  165. 165.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 9:02 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: How can their model predict turn out?

  166. 166.

    Aleta

    March 13, 2018 at 9:02 pm

    Now he’s shooting his rifle off at the sky.

    AP source: President Trump considering replacing embattled VA Secretary Shulkin with Energy Secretary Rick Perry.

  167. 167.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 9:03 pm

    Lamb has such a huge mountain to climb that he can make up 18 points on Trump’s margin and still lose. So all these reports of good news for Lamb might not be enough when he needs GREAT news.

    For those who aren’t looking, the NYT forecast has been between +0.5 for Lamb and +2.1 for Saccone (where it is now).

  168. 168.

    Yarrow

    March 13, 2018 at 9:03 pm

    @satby: OT – saw your comment in TaMara’s thread and have seen some of your other comments re: your coughing or breathing issues, or whatever they’ve turned into. Several years ago I had a cold that settled in my lungs and I just couldn’t seem to get better. The doctor finally gave me an inhaler and I used it for a short period of time. That allowed my lungs to heal or work better and I finally was able to recover. Just wanted to mention it in case it wasn’t something you’d considered yet and might want to look into. Hope you feel better.

  169. 169.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 9:03 pm

    Uh oh. Down to 54-46 – 26% in.

  170. 170.

    B.B.A.

    March 13, 2018 at 9:03 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: The Foreign Office will send a sternly worded letter advising the Russians that their behavior is “just not cricket.”

  171. 171.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 9:04 pm

    Swinging heavily towards Saccone. I may disregard my own advice and start sweating this. Remember exit polls had Lamb up 5. If Saccone wins by 2-3 that is worrisome. Yes exit polls are not perfect, but a 6-7 point differential is unusual.

  172. 172.

    PaulWartenberg

    March 13, 2018 at 9:05 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:
    oh they responded, by assassinating another Russian.

  173. 173.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 9:05 pm

    @mike in dc: I was hoping that was going to me my favorite: JUMP! You Fuckers!

  174. 174.

    Gin & Tonic

    March 13, 2018 at 9:05 pm

    @WaterGirl: I did not.

  175. 175.

    Yarrow

    March 13, 2018 at 9:06 pm

    I really hope it doesn’t go to a recount and they end up having to flip a coin.

  176. 176.

    SFAW

    March 13, 2018 at 9:07 pm

    @BC in Illinois:

    “E-MEHR-gency! e-MEHR-gency! Everyone to get from street!”

    More like the sailor whose best effort was “E-german-cy”

  177. 177.

    satby

    March 13, 2018 at 9:07 pm

    @Yarrow: aww, thanks! I have an inhaler and an Rx for Advair, but the steroid actually made me worse for a bit because it reduced my immune response. I’m much better, but just like you and Tamara, I feel fine and get on with normal activity and then feel wiped out the next day. I figure I just have to wait it out and do what I can.

  178. 178.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 9:08 pm

    The percentage is narrowing but the margin (roughly 6000) is widening. 54-46 (31% in).

  179. 179.

    mike in dc

    March 13, 2018 at 9:09 pm

    Maddow’s gonna need a 4th column soon.
    Lamb holding 8 point lead with 31% in.

  180. 180.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 9:09 pm

    36% in but Westmoreland still hasn’t had a single precinct report. To repeat myself, that seems suspicious.

  181. 181.

    Elizabelle

    March 13, 2018 at 9:09 pm

    Caught a minute of Republican whisperer Dana Bash on CNN. She caught herself before saying “Democrat seat”, but she was reporting on what her GOP contacts were telling her. Like, they should buckle down and run good campaigns.

    O-tay, Dana.

  182. 182.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 9:10 pm

    Now the Times has Lamb projected to win, though not by much. I am getting dizzy.

  183. 183.

    different-church-lady

    March 13, 2018 at 9:10 pm

    Needle gonna make me crazy but it just swang two points back towards the blue all at once.

    (Is swang a word?)

  184. 184.

    scott (the other one)

    March 13, 2018 at 9:10 pm

    @Yarrow: Chiming in to say that for years my wife would develop a cough in the spring that would last for two months. Every single doctor would tell her to try OTC cough syrups, none of which ever did a thing. Finally one prescribed an inhaler and BING! she was improved in 24 hours and the cough was maybe 10% of what it had been for the rest of the spring.

  185. 185.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 9:10 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: In case you are interested. (or anyone else) Really worth the read, for me anyway.

    Prime Minister May’s Use of Force Claim: Clarifying the Law that Governs the U.K.’s Options

    U.K. Prime Minister’s Speech on the Russian Poisoning of Sergei Skripal: Decoding the Signals

  186. 186.

    SFAW

    March 13, 2018 at 9:11 pm

    JFC that FTFNYT needle thingy is frustrating. It just went from Saccone at 60 percent chance to Tossup as I watched.

    Anyone have any tranqs they can send me through the Intertubez?

    ETA: Hey DCL: I think it’s actually “swanged,” because it’s past something-or-other.

    ETA2: And with the “jitter” on, it’s REALLY crazy-making.

  187. 187.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 9:11 pm

    @SFAW: Agree

  188. 188.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 9:12 pm

    @SFAW: You can close the NYT webpage. Their needle 8s garbage.

  189. 189.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    March 13, 2018 at 9:12 pm

    God I almost wish results were embargoed till 75 or 80% came in
    ETA: Nate Cohn is analyzing the vote in Saccade’s state lege district by education levels. Next up: Angels dancing on the head of a pin

  190. 190.

    Gin & Tonic

    March 13, 2018 at 9:12 pm

    @different-church-lady: You’re among friends, so yes.

  191. 191.

    eclare

    March 13, 2018 at 9:12 pm

    @satby: Hey there! Hope you feel better. Developed a cough/fatigue myself a few weeks ago, better but it hasn’t fully gone away.

  192. 192.

    B.B.A.

    March 13, 2018 at 9:13 pm

    One of the townships in Greene County is named Aleppo. Somebody should call Gary Johnson.

  193. 193.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 9:13 pm

    @different-church-lady: I googled swing swang swung:

    “swang. (archaic and dialectal) Simple past tense of swing. Now largely replaced by swung.”

    edit: worth noting that autocorrect was fine with swing and swung, but kept trying to change swang.

  194. 194.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 9:15 pm

    margin up to 7000 54-45 (36%).

  195. 195.

    mike in dc

    March 13, 2018 at 9:15 pm

    @WaterGirl: “countermeasures” should be the term on everyone’s lips when a new Democratic president is sworn in. I expect her first national security team meeting to look like FDR’s White House on December 8th, 1941.

  196. 196.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 9:15 pm

    @SFAW: Just hearing you guys describe the needle swings is making me nervous. Election night scarred me for life, I think.

  197. 197.

    different-church-lady

    March 13, 2018 at 9:16 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    was fine with swing and swung, but kept trying to change swang.

    That’s from Led Zeppelin II, right?

  198. 198.

    NotMax

    March 13, 2018 at 9:17 pm

    Good on MSNBC for putting on a regular Maddow program rather than going wall-to-wall election phumfering.

  199. 199.

    SFAW

    March 13, 2018 at 9:17 pm

    @Baud:

    You can close the NYT webpage.

    Heresy!

  200. 200.

    scott (the other one)

    March 13, 2018 at 9:18 pm

    @mike in dc: Yeah, there should be a Manhattan Project-like plan ready to hit the ground running on day one with a massive infrastructure overhaul the likes of which the country hasn’t seen since the 50s.

    And then the Truth and Reconciliation Commission hearings start up.

  201. 201.

    Starfish

    March 13, 2018 at 9:18 pm

    What is up with Green Hills, Washington County? Why is that tiny district a thing that exists? Why are there only four voters there? Did all the people who were not die-hard Trumpsters move away?

  202. 202.

    Fair Economist

    March 13, 2018 at 9:18 pm

    @Baud: The NYT needle is pretty good and IME is the best predictor of an election as the votes are coming in, but in an election with as much of a swing as this one no adjustment mechanism is trustworthy.

  203. 203.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 9:18 pm

    It don’t mean a thang if it ain’t got swang. 54-46 margin still at 8000 (42%).

    Ouch! Margin down to 5000 52-47. (50%)

  204. 204.

    JR

    March 13, 2018 at 9:20 pm

    @Starfish: It’s a country club

    no, really

  205. 205.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 9:20 pm

    @different-church-lady: the sound you hear is that flying way over my head.

  206. 206.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 9:20 pm

    WaPo:
    49.1% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 52,392 54.0%
    Rick Saccone (R) 44,071 45.4%

    WaPo:
    57.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 59,600 52.3%
    Rick Saccone (R) 53,752 47.1%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  207. 207.

    satby

    March 13, 2018 at 9:21 pm

    @eclare: yeah, I’ve heard about it from too many areas of the country. I think it’s a virus of some kind. So did the doctor I went to.

  208. 208.

    Starfish

    March 13, 2018 at 9:21 pm

    Also, I would like to have a word with these Collier District 5 people in Alleghany County. Look at all those arrows on that one map. All the counties are more blue except that Collier District 5. Who saw Trump and said “Yes, more of that please?” Do we have a map for which region is doing the most opioids?

  209. 209.

    scott (the other one)

    March 13, 2018 at 9:21 pm

    WTF.

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/973730369743802368

  210. 210.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    March 13, 2018 at 9:21 pm

    I saw this tweet this morning, and it’s me a lot of mornings of 2018

    are Sharro @ KarlreMarks
    My favourite bit on Twitter is when you have to reverse-engineer the jokes to figure out what the news is.

    and along those lines, can anyone tell me what the thing about Tillerson and salad is? Or point me in the right direction?

  211. 211.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 9:22 pm

    @Fair Economist: It’s fucking goofy.

  212. 212.

    Yarrow

    March 13, 2018 at 9:22 pm

    @satby: Sorry the inhaler didn’t work. Maybe a different one would help. I finally just stopped doing all but necessary tasks and rested a lot. I gradually got better. Took time and I’m still not 100% but I’m mostly functional now. I think I just was so weak that it’s taking time to climb back up to feeling well. Take good care of yourself.

  213. 213.

    joel hanes

    March 13, 2018 at 9:22 pm

    @Starfish:

    Who saw Trump and said “Yes, more of that please?”

    Low-info racists, regligious bigots, gun-humpers, misogynists, and tax haters.

  214. 214.

    B.B.A.

    March 13, 2018 at 9:23 pm

    @Starfish:

    Green Hills is a borough in Washington County, Pennsylvania, United States. The borough was formed in 1978 when a local businessman worked to secede from the dry township of South Franklin after voters there defeated a referendum that would allow alcohol sales at his country club. The population was 18 at the 2000 census, making it the third least populous borough in the state; only S.N.P.J. and Centralia had fewer residents.

  215. 215.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 9:23 pm

    @scott (the other one): ratfuckers.

  216. 216.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 9:23 pm

    Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren’t going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.

  217. 217.

    satby

    March 13, 2018 at 9:24 pm

    @Yarrow: thanks, you too!

  218. 218.

    eclare

    March 13, 2018 at 9:24 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Google Rex salad Trump and China. Don’t have my mouse handy to link.

  219. 219.

    MFA

    March 13, 2018 at 9:24 pm

    @satby: I’m going on a month. Congestion, fatigue. No fever. Doc is treating me for pneumonia. But it just won’t die.

  220. 220.

    debbie

    March 13, 2018 at 9:24 pm

    @satby:

    Now can we kick them out of the UN?

  221. 221.

    El Caganer

    March 13, 2018 at 9:24 pm

    @Another Scott: I think he picked him specifically to start a war with Iran.

  222. 222.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 9:24 pm

    @Yarrow: I tried everything but time was the only thing that worked and it took a month.

  223. 223.

    satby

    March 13, 2018 at 9:25 pm

    @raven: isn’t that interesting. Hope there’s election monitors all over the place there.

  224. 224.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 9:25 pm

    @MFA: Mine lasted all of January.

  225. 225.

    SFAW

    March 13, 2018 at 9:25 pm

    @scott (the other one):

    Westmoreland just needs more time to figure out how many more “voters” they need, to give Saccone the win.

    ETA: I see G&T beat me to the punch. Again.

  226. 226.

    Mike

    March 13, 2018 at 9:26 pm

    @japa21: They must wait until the Democratic Party-heavy districts report so that the Republicans will know how to calculate the number of votes they report.

  227. 227.

    JMG

    March 13, 2018 at 9:26 pm

    @B.B.A.: At least they had a good reason.

  228. 228.

    Starfish

    March 13, 2018 at 9:26 pm

    @B.B.A.: That’s fascinating. Rich people are crazy.

  229. 229.

    debbie

    March 13, 2018 at 9:27 pm

    @MFA:

    I’ve had pneumonia twice. It took more like two months to recover each time.

  230. 230.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 9:27 pm

    That explains why there are no marks on that county even though they are showing votes. So apparently the county is giving results but just a running tally and not breaking it down by precinct.

  231. 231.

    chris

    March 13, 2018 at 9:28 pm

    @WaterGirl: For you

    I've seen the NYT needleand the damage doneA little part of it in everyoneBut every political junkie'slike a settin' sun.— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) 14 March 2018

  232. 232.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 9:28 pm

    WaPo:
    60.5% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 63,595 52.7%
    Rick Saccone (R) 56,427 46.7%

    62.4% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 66,428 52.8%
    Rick Saccone (R) 58,545 46.6%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  233. 233.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    March 13, 2018 at 9:28 pm

    @eclare: thanks– got it.

    new report in the Wall Street Journal claims that President Donald Trump ordered outgoing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to eat wilted vegetables that were served to the two men by Chinese hosts.
    Sources tell the Journal that Trump and Tillerson were served a limp-looking Cesar Salad last November while in China as part of a five-nation tour of Asia.
    Trump feared that leaving the salads alone would offend their Chinese hosts, but he didn’t want to be the one to take the plunge himself.
    “Rex, eat the salad,” Trump told his secretary of state.

  234. 234.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 9:28 pm

    Margin 7168. 53-46 (61%).

  235. 235.

    B.B.A.

    March 13, 2018 at 9:29 pm

    @JMG: SNPJ is another country club that formed its own borough to get a liquor license. Centralia, population 7, is a coal mining town that was mostly evacuated after the mine caught fire.

  236. 236.

    Aleta

    March 13, 2018 at 9:29 pm

    @scott (the other one):
    printing out what @scott (the other one) said above:

    * Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

    Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren’t going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.


    We’re still arguing over what to do about this, but it is a distinct possibility that we will turn it off. We can’t responsibly model the result without data from the most GOP 1/3 of the district. And, well, we did make sure to write this in advance, in case we had to.

    (An explanation they wrote in advance is at @scott t.o.o’s link. Doesn’t copy here.)

    

  237. 237.

    efgoldman

    March 13, 2018 at 9:29 pm

    @Another Scott:

    49.1% reporting

    Unless they tell the clients what the pollsters think they want to hear – always a possibility in RWNJ fantasyland – the internal polling in dozens, maybe hundreds of districts has to be absolutely terrifying for them. This is looking like a mirror image of 2010.
    All you fraidy cats and chicken littles take a pill and a nap.

  238. 238.

    maeve

    March 13, 2018 at 9:29 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:
    Rex – eat the salad
    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/rex-eat-salad-trump-ordered-tillerson-eat-wilted-greens-avoid-offending-chinese-hosts/

  239. 239.

    eclare

    March 13, 2018 at 9:30 pm

    @chris: Hahaha……that’s priceless.

  240. 240.

    chris

    March 13, 2018 at 9:30 pm

    Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren't going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) 14 March 2018

  241. 241.

    satby

    March 13, 2018 at 9:30 pm

    @MFA: yep, exactly what I had, but I knew it wasn’t pneumonia because I’ve had that multiple times. Still was put on prophylactic antibiotics but they really didn’t help me get better, I just didn’t develop pneumonia. And none of us are sick enough to be hospitalized for it to be better identified.
    Here’s hoping we all shake it off soon!

  242. 242.

    hellslittlestangel

    March 13, 2018 at 9:31 pm

    Looking good for Lamb [crosses fingers, holds breath].

  243. 243.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 9:31 pm

    @chris: Gives new meaning to that song!

  244. 244.

    Major Major Major Major

    March 13, 2018 at 9:32 pm

    @chris: wtf

  245. 245.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    March 13, 2018 at 9:32 pm

    @hellslittlestangel: spit through your fingers, turn clockwise in a circle three times, and throw salt over your left shoulder. Quick!

  246. 246.

    mike in dc

    March 13, 2018 at 9:33 pm

    @chris: Well, with about 80k votes outstanding(spitballing here), Saccone needs to win those around 44k-36k or thereabouts.

  247. 247.

    Matt McIrvin

    March 13, 2018 at 9:33 pm

    @SFAW: They’re reporting totals, just not breaking it down by precinct.

    Looks very close, in any event. The precincts that haven’t reported yet are mostly red ones, so it’s going to get narrow.

  248. 248.

    Elizabelle

    March 13, 2018 at 9:33 pm

    WRT people suffering lingering illnesses and fatigue: a Facebook friend suggested that some of it might be tied to Trump fear and fatigue, and I think there might be something to that.

    I guess the control group would be the troglodytes who are fine with Trump and all the disruption and malfeasance; have no idea how they’re doing healthwise.

  249. 249.

    different-church-lady

    March 13, 2018 at 9:35 pm

    And Nate just turned it off about 20 seconds ago.

  250. 250.

    Matt McIrvin

    March 13, 2018 at 9:35 pm

    @Elizabelle: Those people are terrified of the entire rest of society and the world, so it probably evens out.

  251. 251.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 9:35 pm

    WaPo:
    71.0% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 75,152 51.5%
    Rick Saccone (R) 69,964 47.9%

    72.0% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 76,181 51.5%
    Rick Saccone (R) 70,781 47.9%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  252. 252.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 9:35 pm

    51-48 (70%) 5008 margin. Getting dicey!

  253. 253.

    Mary G

    March 13, 2018 at 9:38 pm

    Breaking: Westmoreland just jumped up to 77% reporting. Lamb (D) holding steady there at 43%. That's right about where he needs to be…but just barely. #PA18— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018

  254. 254.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 9:39 pm

    @Mary G:

    That’s right about where he needs to be…but just barely. 

    Huh?

  255. 255.

    opiejeanne

    March 13, 2018 at 9:39 pm

    @satby: That describes what I had for two months. Steroids and antibiotics, I didn’t, then I did, then I didn’t have pneumonia. I went to the doctor every other week during that time and the best thing they did was as prescribe a cough syrup that would help me sleep and was non-codeine.

  256. 256.

    Gin & Tonic

    March 13, 2018 at 9:41 pm

    @SFAW: You snooze, you lose.

  257. 257.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 9:42 pm

    @opiejeanne: I turned down the codeine at first but then gave in. I had this weird whistle when I breathed at night. . . I though there was a cell phone under the bed.

  258. 258.

    NotMax

    March 13, 2018 at 9:42 pm

    @Mary G

    Haven’t trusted anything named Westmoreland since Viet Nam.

  259. 259.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 9:42 pm

    Andrea Mitchell reports that Trump was forced to call Tillerson to fire him.

  260. 260.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 9:43 pm

    Dave Wasserman in an earlier tweet said the results needed to be
    Allegheny 58%
    Westmoreland 43%
    Washington 47%
    Greene 41%

    for Lamb to win.
    He’s currently at
    Allegheny 58.04%
    Westmoreland 43.09%
    Washington 49.76%
    Greene 41.70%

    so barely above estimates.

  261. 261.

    Elizabelle

    March 13, 2018 at 9:43 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: I, of course, hope they all have one foot in the grave and will shuffle off this mortal coil, soonest. So we can have nice things.

  262. 262.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 9:44 pm

    WaPo:
    74.2% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 78,686 51.7%
    Rick Saccone (R) 72,654 47.7%

    Big jump:

    86.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 91,687 50.4%
    Rick Saccone (R) 89,194 49.0%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  263. 263.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 9:44 pm

    50-48 3500 margin 76%. I’m getting nervous!

  264. 264.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 9:44 pm

    TOO CLOSE TO CALL!!

  265. 265.

    jefft452

    March 13, 2018 at 9:44 pm

    @BC in Illinois: “otherwise there is World War III, and everybody is blaming YOU!”

    Haven’t seen that movie in, what? 50 years? And its still quotable

  266. 266.

    trollhattan

    March 13, 2018 at 9:45 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    “Rex, eat the salad,” Trump told his secretary of state.

    Typical WSJ, left off “and get your shine box.”

  267. 267.

    CaseyL

    March 13, 2018 at 9:45 pm

    Margin now down to about 2000 votes, with 86.7% reporting in.

  268. 268.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 9:46 pm

    87% in 1,4% lead for Lamb. Nail biter time.

  269. 269.

    opiejeanne

    March 13, 2018 at 9:46 pm

    @raven: They did prescribe the codeine version and after the second dose I remembered why I shouldn’t take it. I threw up for nearly 24 hours. That’s when they switched me to something that doesn’t do that to me.

  270. 270.

    Davebo

    March 13, 2018 at 9:46 pm

    It’s a nail biter! I know some would say even being close is a win, but it’s not a win.

  271. 271.

    mainmata

    March 13, 2018 at 9:46 pm

    With 87% reporting it’s 50-49 Lamb leading. Lamb has been surprisingly competitive in Washington County. This may end up close to a tie or Lamb may hold on barely.

  272. 272.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 9:47 pm

    @jefft452: Paul Ford and Jonathon Winters killed it!

  273. 273.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 9:47 pm

    Interesting that we have heard nothing about how either camp is feeling right now.

  274. 274.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 9:47 pm

    Man, I wish Baud had gone to the District to campaign for Lamb!!

  275. 275.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 9:48 pm

    @opiejeanne: Ugh

  276. 276.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    March 13, 2018 at 9:48 pm

    Dave Wasserman @ Redistrict
    Lamb (D) lead down to 2,493 votes (1.4%) w/ 87% of precincts reporting. The remaining precincts lean *slightly* Saccone. This might be a good time to look up PA’s recount provisions. #PA18

    oy

  277. 277.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 9:49 pm

    @Baud: Forced how? Does she say? Wonder if Tillerson said he wasn’t leaving based on a tweet!

  278. 278.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 9:50 pm

    @WaterGirl: That’s what she suggested.

  279. 279.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 9:50 pm

    @Baud: You stop that! :-)

  280. 280.

    frosty

    March 13, 2018 at 9:50 pm

    @raven: They did. But Alan Arkin and Brian Keith and Carl Reiner and … hell, it was a great cast.

  281. 281.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 9:51 pm

    @patroclus: I had my phone on silent. Missed his call.

  282. 282.

    NotMax

    March 13, 2018 at 9:51 pm

    Boy, Ron Wyden has gotten old. Doesn’t look well, appears gaunt.

  283. 283.

    Elizabelle

    March 13, 2018 at 9:51 pm

    @trollhattan: I thought they were both lucky the meal was identifiable.

  284. 284.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 9:51 pm

    WaPo:
    87.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 93,388 50.5%
    Rick Saccone (R) 90,566 48.9%

    90.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 97,208 50.2%
    Rick Saccone (R) 95,232 49.2%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  285. 285.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 9:51 pm

    @Baud: Not a fan of Tillerson, but good for him on that one.

  286. 286.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 9:51 pm

    Prediction: Lamb loses by 123 votes. Runs again. Wins by 5.7% in the rematch in November.

  287. 287.

    raven

    March 13, 2018 at 9:52 pm

    @frosty: And the little blondie!

  288. 288.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 9:53 pm

    @guachi: There won’t be a rematch. They’ll be in different districts.

  289. 289.

    Skepticat

    March 13, 2018 at 9:53 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Do you really think I’ll believe that tRump gave the slightest thought to whether anyone else would be offended by anything?

  290. 290.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 9:53 pm

    Conor Lamb leads by 1.0 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 91 percent of precincts fully reporting.

    Conor Lamb leads by 0.5 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 95 percent of precincts fully reporting.

    What’s the recount threshold? Anyone know?

  291. 291.

    Mary G

    March 13, 2018 at 9:53 pm

    Needless to say, the fact #PA18 is headed for a photo finish is pretty bad news for Republicans nationally.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018

    Lamb winning would stiil be better.

  292. 292.

    Fair Economist

    March 13, 2018 at 9:53 pm

    Getting cautiously optimistic. The outstanding votes lean R but not overwhelmingly so.

    And as I post a huge bloc comes in from Westmoreland. The remaining votes might even lean D at this point but holy cow this is close.

  293. 293.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 9:53 pm

    91% in. This is going to be about .5% either way. Expect a recount.

  294. 294.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 9:53 pm

    Margin at 1549, 91% in.

    Ouch. Margin at 703. 94% in.

  295. 295.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 9:54 pm

    @Mary G: Agree with the tweet and your comment.

  296. 296.

    JaneSays

    March 13, 2018 at 9:54 pm

    Margin at 703 votes (49.9-49.5), with 94% reporting.

    There’s gonna be a recount.

  297. 297.

    Shell

    March 13, 2018 at 9:55 pm

    With 87% reporting it’s 50-49 Lamb leading

    Oh Cripes, cue the recount…

  298. 298.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 9:55 pm

    @Baud: Does Pennsylvania law require candidates to live in the district they represent?

  299. 299.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    March 13, 2018 at 9:55 pm

    @Skepticat: he owes money to banks Xi controls, or hopes to

  300. 300.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 9:55 pm

    @JaneSays: Damn.

  301. 301.

    efgoldman

    March 13, 2018 at 9:55 pm

    @Baud:

    TOO CLOSE TO CALL!!

    Oh

    shut

    up

  302. 302.

    frosty

    March 13, 2018 at 9:55 pm

    @raven: Yep, she was definitely striking.

  303. 303.

    JaneSays

    March 13, 2018 at 9:55 pm

    Down to a 72 vote margin with 95% reporting.

  304. 304.

    CaseyL

    March 13, 2018 at 9:56 pm

    101,907 (Lamb) to 100,979 (Saccone).

    JFC.

  305. 305.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 9:56 pm

    @guachi: I don’t know.

  306. 306.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 9:56 pm

    Win or Lose

    Dave Wasserman
    ‏@Redistrict

    Needless to say, the fact #PA18 is headed for a photo finish is pretty bad news for Republicans nationally.

    37 replies 324 retweets 787 likes

  307. 307.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 9:56 pm

    WaPo:
    94.9% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 101,907 49.9%
    Rick Saccone (R) 100,979 49.5%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  308. 308.

    Lapassionara

    March 13, 2018 at 9:57 pm

    Just checked The Atlantic, and it reports a Libertarian candidate with 1500 or so votes. Really?

  309. 309.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 9:57 pm

    How close is this election? Close enough that the votes for the Libertarian candidate could have been decisive.

  310. 310.

    JaneSays

    March 13, 2018 at 9:57 pm

    Nevermind, misread the last count. It’s currently a 928 vote margin for Lamb.

    Which will still almost certainly trigger a recount.

  311. 311.

    Mary G

    March 13, 2018 at 9:57 pm

    Perspective: There are 114 GOP-held seats more competitive than #pa18 based on Cook PVI, per Dem strategist.— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) March 14, 2018

  312. 312.

    Fair Economist

    March 13, 2018 at 9:57 pm

    @guachi: No state can require a House member to reside in the district, only the state, per the Constitution.

  313. 313.

    Omnes Omnibus

    March 13, 2018 at 9:57 pm

    @debbie: No, we can’t. We can’t even kick them off of the Security Council.

  314. 314.

    Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)

    March 13, 2018 at 9:58 pm

    We all should have gone to therapy with MajorX4.

  315. 315.

    NotMax

    March 13, 2018 at 9:58 pm

    FYI.

    Pennsylvania uses paper and Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) systems for its elections. The state does not require a voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) when conducting elections. According to the National Academy of Sciences, a voter-verified paper audit trail “consists of physical paper records of voter ballots as voters have cast them on an electronic voting system. In the event that an election recount or audit is called for, the VVPAT provides a supporting record.”
    Pennsylvania recount procedures

    A recount of ballots is required in an election district if three qualified electors in that district file a petition alleging that fraud or error occurred in the tabulation of votes or the marking of election ballots. Petitioners are not required to “specify in their petition the particular act of fraud or error which they believe to have been committed nor to offer evidence to substantiate the allegations of their petition.” The petition must be accompanied by a $50 deposit, which will be retained by election officials if it is determined that fraud or error did not occur. This deposit is due to each county in which a recount is requested.

    The secretary of the commonwealth must order a recount if any of the following conditions are met:

    a candidate for statewide office was defeated by 0.5 percent or less of all votes cast for the office
    a statewide ballot measure was approved or rejected by 0.5 percent or less of all votes cast for the measure

    Source

  316. 316.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 9:58 pm

    @Mary G: I’ll take all 114, ma’am.

  317. 317.

    Quinerly

    March 13, 2018 at 9:59 pm

    @JaneSays: I gotta bad feeling.

  318. 318.

    Starfish

    March 13, 2018 at 9:59 pm

    @Lapassionara: I swear. I am going to just punch Libertarians in the nuts on principle. There is one dude on Twitter right now saying that United was right in today’s “flight attendant gets a puppy killed” episode.

  319. 319.

    EBT

    March 13, 2018 at 9:59 pm

    Lamb seems to be squeaking back up as the finish line approaches.

  320. 320.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 10:00 pm

    New thread.

  321. 321.

    lgerard

    March 13, 2018 at 10:00 pm

    So Drew Miller, the Libertarian may be the deciding factor for the good guys

    C’mon invisible hand!!

  322. 322.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 10:00 pm

    WaPo:
    95.4% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 102,839 50.0%
    Rick Saccone (R) 101,707 49.4%

    (-0.6%, -1132 votes)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  323. 323.

    JaneSays

    March 13, 2018 at 10:00 pm

    Margin is now 1132 for Lamb.

  324. 324.

    mainmata

    March 13, 2018 at 10:01 pm

    Doesn’t look like Conor’s going to prevail but, if he does, it would be by almost literally a handful of votes. In any event, it would be a real Pyrrhic victory for the GOP if Saccone wins.

  325. 325.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    March 13, 2018 at 10:02 pm

    @Baud:

    New thread.

    Nobody goes there, it’s too crowded.

  326. 326.

    BlueDWarrior

    March 13, 2018 at 10:02 pm

    Lamb’s margin is edging back up… +1,100 with a handful.

  327. 327.

    Lapassionara

    March 13, 2018 at 10:03 pm

    @Starfish: Do it!

  328. 328.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:03 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): Maybe we could get a group rate?

  329. 329.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:04 pm

    @mainmata: A win is a win.

  330. 330.

    mike in dc

    March 13, 2018 at 10:05 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: The idea of forming a new organization has occasionally been bandied about. It would consist only of the most “democratic” nations of the world. I’d use the criteria of the Democracy Index, where the US is (just barely) a “flawed democracy”, downgraded from “functional democracy”. Hybrid states might have provisional membership, provided they work steadily on internal reforms. Authoritarian states would be excluded.

  331. 331.

    Immanentize

    March 13, 2018 at 10:05 pm

    @mainmata:
    Trollololol

  332. 332.

    patrick II

    March 13, 2018 at 10:07 pm

    I am trying to figure out what is the advantage to Republicans of holding back counts and not reporting by precinct in Westmoreland.

  333. 333.

    Davebo

    March 13, 2018 at 10:10 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Actually it could be done. We’d just have to convince Russia to vote for it’s own removal!

    Chapter XVIII, article 108

  334. 334.

    hellslittlestangel

    March 13, 2018 at 10:11 pm

    Getting the same queasy feeling I had on 11/8/16.

  335. 335.

    debbie

    March 13, 2018 at 10:12 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    We can’t even send them to their room for a timeout?

  336. 336.

    Omnes Omnibus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:13 pm

    @Davebo: Like I said….

    @debbie: No.

  337. 337.

    Omnes Omnibus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:14 pm

    @hellslittlestangel: Then you are way too emotionally invested in this special election. Do you live in the district?

  338. 338.

    hellslittlestangel

    March 13, 2018 at 10:18 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: I don’t need you to tell me how to feel. Thanks, but no thanks.

  339. 339.

    jonas

    March 13, 2018 at 10:18 pm

    @hellslittlestangel: The fact that this is even close and forced the GOP to pour millions into what should have been a no-brainer safe district is a win. Imagine some Republican coming within .5 percent of ousting a Dem in Berkeley, CA. That’s how nuts Lamb’s candidacy was. And he still might actually win!

    Courage!

  340. 340.

    jonas

    March 13, 2018 at 10:22 pm

    @El Caganer: If he had nominated Tom Cotton, the bombers would be all but airborne 2 minutes after his confirmation vote. But yeah, Pompeo is going to be bad. How bad, I’m not sure, as long as Mattis is still at Defense, but who knows how long that’s going to last…

  341. 341.

    Omnes Omnibus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:30 pm

    @hellslittlestangel: Not telling you how to feel. Just offering my opinion. Feel free to ignore it.

  342. 342.

    Eric S.

    March 13, 2018 at 10:56 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): I was in therapy 630 to 830 CAT. Trying to get caught up on this thread.

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