With 93% reporting in PA 18 Conor Lamb has a 928 vote lead over Rick Saccone. Here’s some thoughts from Harry Enten of 538:
Things that are true now that'll be true after PA-18: The president has a 40% approval rating. Not good. The president's party is down by around 10 points on the generic. Not good. The average swing in federal special elections has been 16 pts against the prez's party. Not good.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 13, 2018
The final polling average had Lamb +2.5. Margin of error on special election polling averages is +/- 10 points. So this will fall within that…
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 14, 2018
To put this in perspective, the Dem swing from the partisan lean (using the margin) in the 8 special elections so far including this one is +17. In 2006, it was +15 for comparison.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 14, 2018
Open thread!
dmsilev
A few more precincts trickled in:
lgerard
So Drew Miller, the Libertarian may be the deciding factor for the good guys
C’mon invisible hand!!
EBT
Lamb is eking back up as the finish line approaches.
efgoldman
Didn’t need those fingernails anyway
Baud
@lgerard:
The Greens must be kicking themselves for not running a spoiler candidate.
guachi
If vote percentages hold EXACTLY as they are now for the remaining votes then Lamb should squeak by with a win of about 1,000 votes.
If.
patroclus
1132 margin. 95%. CNN saying absentee and provisional will be counted last. (They don’t know how many but about 4-5000). Margin is 0.6%, not close enough for recount.
dmsilev
Because we all want to know:
Major Major Major Major
@lgerard: I could see a libertarian thinking the ideal outcome is trumpism losing without the libertarian having to dirty his hands voting for a democrat.
p.a.
What’s the min/max there for a required recount? Well ok then, thanks dm…
eric
that .6 would me a lot
Mary G
I see to the side that John says Saccone will pull it out. Hope he’s wrong.
dmsilev
@p.a.: See above (pasted in from Ballotpedia). 0.5%.
Frankensteinbeck
I’m not putting any emotional investment into this race either way, but a win would be cool.
eemom
“Not good” for WHO? I mean, aside from Enten and his parasitic horserace loving ilk for whom the actual results mean nothing.
OGLiberal
@dmsilev: Is this considered a statewide race if only one part of the state is voting?
Adam L Silverman
@lgerard: Every single time. They’re not running because they have better ideas, they’re running to spoil the election. Someone should really look into who funds the Libertarian Party and the campaigns of these candidates.
Baud
@Frankensteinbeck: Agree. The story is that it’s close.
patroclus
1238 margin 96%.
Another Scott
WaPo:
95.8% reporting
Candidate Votes PCT
Conor Lamb (D) 103,768 50.0%
Rick Saccone (R) 102,530 49.4%
(-0.6%, -1238 to change the results)
Cheers,
Scott.
JaneSays
+1238 for Lamb now, 96% reporting
Adam L Silverman
Good!
frosty
@Frankensteinbeck:
Dammit, I am.
NorthLeft12
How long before Deadbeat Donald’s first tweet calling Saccone a terrible candidate and a loser?
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: Excellent. I hope Hannity is personally named.
eclare
@Adam L Silverman: This 1000%. And the Greens.
Immanentize
@dmsilev: This is not a state-wide office, so?
NotMax
Repeating, FYI.
Tilda Swintons Bald Cap
@Adam L Silverman: Yep.
guachi
@Adam L Silverman: Good!
BlueDWarrior
@frosty: This is a lot like the Ossoff race. It’s one you want, but it’s low on the ‘need’ list when we are looking at races to flip for the win.
Lapassionara
I have gotten better and more up-to-date information on BJ tonight than any other site I have visited. Not a controlled or peer- reviewed study, but thanks, Jackals!
Fair Economist
The last few updates have all been from Democratic-leaning Allegheny. The last 6% or so of the Republican counties is being held back.
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: @Baud: What’s the backstory on this? So many terrible things have happened, it’s hard to keep them straight. Super-short cliff notes version would be fine, if either of you is so inclined.
patroclus
Is anyone gonna tell Adam that “Conor” has only 1 “N” in it?
Ken
@NorthLeft12: That’s the only emotional investment I have in this. I don’t want to give Trump the satisfaction of gloating about how his brilliant campaign appearance won this election.
mike in dc
@NotMax: .5% here would be around 1100 votes. So if Lamb wins by more than that, no automatic recount.
EBT
https://twitter.com/MagsVisaggs/status/973577815928033280
SFAW
@guachi:
I make it closer to 1100, if the percentages hold, but as you said:
IF
joel hanes
@NotMax:
and Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) systems for its elections. The state does not require a voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) when conducting elections.
So, since they’ve deliberately left the door open for shenanigans …
trollhattan
@patroclus:
Next you’ll be telling us the camera brand isn’t Cannon. Hrrmph!
patroclus
Geez. 918 margin.
WaterGirl
I have been pretty successful in my determination not to eat after 7pm, but I seriously want to eat something. I’m hungry and nervous, not a good combination.
jacy
@mike in dc:
According to CNN — Pennsylvania Sec. of State spokesperson Wanda Murren tells CNN that b/c this is a district race & not statewide, there is no mandatory recount here. Petitions are allowed, which require 3 voters in each precinct; have 5 days to file after the county completes its computation.
Baud
STFU Alter.
WaterGirl
@patroclus: Oh shit, then I have been spelling his name wrong all day.
frosty
@BlueDWarrior: I know (some of) the area. My mother grew up in Mt. Lebanon and we visited my grandparents there a lot. I have some ancestors from Washington County who apparently were part of the Whiskey Rebellion.
MomSense
@frosty:
I swore I wouldn’t but now I’m refreshing the NYT vote count page every 3.5 seconds.
Aaaaarrrggghhh.
Princess
NotMax
@Lapassionara
All this and recipes, too!
What to Drink on Election Night, According to Your Emotional State
:)
Another Scott
WaPo:
96.3% reporting
Candidate Votes PCT
Conor Lamb (D) 104,697 49.9%
Rick Saccone (R) 103,779 49.5%
(-0.4%, -918 votes)
Cheers,
Scott.
Immanentize
@jacy: Thank you!
lgerard
@mike in dc:
You have to count the absentee ballots before you can determine whether a recount is automatic though.
frosty
@joel hanes: S
Yes, one thing that pisses me off about PA. Voting machines are chosen by County. I vote on the same crap.
Matt McIrvin
@patroclus: That last jump was from a bunch of votes in Westmoreland, now 99% in. There’s not enough left there to put Saccone over, so it’s mostly down to the remaining precincts in Washington and Allegheny.
Schlemazel
They will count the absentee ballots, which I have readis 4-5,000 so this will not be over tonight I don’t imagine. Normally this is not an important race but I think a win is huge not just because of what it tells the GOP but it prevents twitler from claiming it is a victory. If numbnuts pulls this out, even by 1 vote hair furor and the media will be painting it as a great GOP victory by Thursday. If they lose, even if by 1 vote, it shuts that shit off at the source.
Fair Economist
Westmoreland, the largest R county, is now 99% in. The remaining votes in R counties, at the current percentages, would only give about a 400 vote boost to Saccone. It’s very hard to see a Saccone win with the election night votes now. Anybody know how the absentees lean and how many there are?
Edit: Ninja’d, dangit.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Baud
9000 more votes left to count. More in red areas.
p.a.
What about absentee ballots? Ha! 2nd time I’m 2 comments later than the answer to my Q. I’ll shut up now…
Adam
Am I the only person worried that this whole Westmoreland County isn’t releasing precinct level results going to lead them to “find” the votes they need to push Saccone over the finish line?
guachi
Slightly good news on that last batch of Westmoreland votes for Lamb. It wasn’t overwhelmingly better for Saccone than his previous total – 57.35% vs. 57.47%.
patroclus
@Schlemazel: The guy counting them was just interviewed on CNN and he said the count would be available by midnight (EDT). And they are now estimating 6907 absentee/provisionals.
frosty
@MomSense: I’m refreshing this page just as often to get 2 or 3 new comments. Tried TPM and GOS, BJ is better.
tobie
@joel hanes: I will never understand why the Democratic Gov of PA has done nothing to ensure the integrity of the vote in PA. Tom Wolf is a wimp.
Baud
@patroclus: Ugh. Not staying up that late.
BlueDWarrior
I mean, it’d suck if he lost, but if you are taking a district that was unopposed to the wire in a special election, you are doing something right.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Shana
@lgerard: I bet a lot of those absentee votes are D.
Adam L Silverman
@WaterGirl: Assange, Stone, Piss Boy Posobiec, Mandrill Mentality Cernovich, Rage Furby Johnson, Dim Jim Hoft and his Twink for Trump Wintrich, other alt-righters, and Hannity went all in that Seth Rich wasn’t the tragic victim of a random stranger on stranger robbery homicide. Rather he was actually the person that stole all the information from the DNC’s servers and sent it to Guccifer 2.0. And Hillary Clinton had him murdered for it.
Ghouls!
lgerard
@Schlemazel:
4-5000 absentee ballots is an absurdly high number, I am dubious
BlueDWarrior
@tobie: What could he do by fiat given the very Republican legislature?
guachi
Looks like Saccone needs about 55.7% of the remaining vote to win (before absentee votes, etc.). That’s very doable but more likely good for Lamb, I’d think.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam: I will cut the first person who mentions Waukesha County. And the second, since I just had to cut myself.
Fair Economist
@tobie:
Um, separation of powers and an overwhelmingly R statehouse? Or does my snark detector need calibration?
Adam L Silverman
@patroclus: I’ll fix it.
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you. Fuckers.
frosty
@Adam: I’ve been a poll watcher in York County. I trust the election judges. The counts at the polls were clean. I don’t know about the tabulators though.
Gretchen
@patroclus: what is the margin for a recount?
Immanentize
@BlueDWarrior:
True, but there is an opportunity to break the will of Republicans. If Lamb wins, many more retirements on the R side.
Major Major Major Major
@Omnes Omnibus: dude, that isn’t healthy, do you need to call somebody?
Adam L Silverman
@joel hanes:
Achrachno
@frosty: Everyone knows that!
Fair Economist
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: If well over half the absentees are from Allegheny, that’s very good for us. Provisionals always break for us since voter suppression is targeted at Democrats.
patroclus
@Gretchen: For a statewide race (which this isn’t), it’s 0.5%. Otherwise, it’s 3 voters in each precinct and 5 days to do it.
Margin at 795. And as I type, it drops to 540.
frosty
@tobie: Wolf and the State Supreme Court stopped Voter ID in PA. The lege is hard right Republican, and most of the counties are too. I don’t know enough to say who decides what voting machines are used, but I think it’s counties.
WaterGirl
@Major Major Major Major: Pretty sure that was a figurative cutting, not a literal cutting. If I’m wrong, then yeah, what you said.
japa21
@Omnes Omnibus: Interesting you say that, because my mind turned to that very subject, meaning the county I will not name,; earlier. Then I said to myself, if I bring it up Omnes is going to hurt me.
Schlemazel
@patroclus:
Thanks!
randy khan
Now 697, with 98% of Allegheny (blue), 99% of Westmoreland (red) and 90% of Washington (red, but a lot smaller). If the trends hold, he’d end up ahead by 500 or so.
Omnes Omnibus
@Major Major Major Major: I was making good on my threat. I am like that.
Baud
540 vote margin. May come down to absentees.
Another Scott
I’ve seen 99% numbers mentioned above, but…
WaPo:
97.5% reporting
Candidate Votes PCT
Conor Lamb (D) 106,549 49.8%
Rick Saccone (R) 106,009 49.6%
97.8% reporting
Candidate Votes PCT
Conor Lamb (D) 107,155 49.8%
Rick Saccone (R) 106,570 49.6%
Cheers,
Scott.
??? Martin
Saccone is likely to squeak this out.
Major Major Major Major
@WaterGirl: well obvs. OO doesn’t seem the type.
randy khan
@Baud:
Probably.
??? Martin
The % reporting is precincts, not voters. Not all precincts are the same size.
NotMax
Any reports on how much snow/sleet/rain there was in the district today?
patroclus
585 margin.
SFAW
@Omnes Omnibus:
Then I shouldn’t mention that Hitlary didn’t campaign in Westmoreland County?
Quinerly
540 difference. Lamb up. Libertarian candidate with about 1100 votes.
Omnes Omnibus
@japa21: I have posted the official report and the independent report several times. I am not doing it again, but it was incompetence not malice. Hence the stabby, cutty feels.
eclare
@Baud: Seems like it will, since there are around 7,000 of them in total.
WaterGirl
@Major Major Major Major: oops, I’m a little wound up about this election. that’s my excuse.
MomSense
@frosty:
God dammit this is killing me
tobie
@Fair Economist: I believe elections are supervised by the Sec of State in PA–a position appointed by the Governor. Need to look into this.
Adam
@frosty: crossing my fingers that the tabulators are clean, I worry about that. But I worry about everything.
Adam L Silverman
@lgerard: If I recall correctly, unlike a lot of other states that let you request an absentee ballot for any reason, Pennsylvania really limits who can vote by absentee ballot.
randy khan
Back up to 585.
13 precincts still out, mostly red or reddish.
Immanentize
@??? Martin:
Why, exactly, do you say this?
Omnes Omnibus
@SFAW: Gah!
Baud
Alter needs to be Tillersonned.
Schlemazel
@lgerard:
see: @patroclus:
I believe more and more people are using absentee ballots now that 8-10 years ago. I know here they changed the law so you don’t have to actually not be home on election day and can vote absentee simply because you feel like it. For some people that is easier.
eric
from GOS
Bad news: Greene and Washington counties will not be reporting their absentee votes tonight. Votes will be counted and posted tomorrow, per @katiegp.
Another Scott
@??? Martin: Yeahbut, if they’ve counted all the precincts, then they’ve counted all the votes (except for absentee, provisional, etc.). Of course.
Cheers,
Scott.
Shana
@MomSense: You and me both.
guachi
I wouldn’t be surprised if this initial count has a margin of less than 100.
Baud
@eric: Well, I’m going to bed soon then.
WaterGirl
I don’t think I have ever woken up to happy news if I go to bed before the race is called, so I’m hesitant to go to bed even though I am really tired. It seems much later than 9:30!
eric
@Baud: I am the party killer.
BlueDWarrior
This race is balanced on the knife’s edge. And yeah, any number tonight has to be taken with a grain of salt because of a few thousand absentee votes floating about.
Lapassionara
@NotMax: LOL. I needed that.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
It’s been reported that there were about 6-7k absentees cast in #PA18. In the past, absentees have run slightly more Dem than the overall vote and I don’t believe they’ve been counted yet. They may matter here.
25 replies 202 retweets 358 likes
Immanentize
@WaterGirl: it is. It’s 10:30! (here)
dmsilev
Eyeballing the numbers, assuming that the precincts outstanding in Washington county (which is only 93% reporting) are similar to the rest of the county, Lamb would probably lose another 200 or so votes off his current margin, so he’d end up ahead at this point. Then there are the provisionals etc., and then the inevitable recount. So, no matter what, we’re not getting a definitive answer tonight.
WaterGirl
@eric: Are those D or R counties?
Fair Economist
Often “99%” means everything but the absentees and/or provisionals, as it looks bad to have the numbers change after it’s 100% in. If so, nothing will be settled until tomorrow at the earliest based on the upthread comment that the R counties aren’t going to count their absentees tonight.
Edit: 2 out of 3, and not including the biggest R county. But still, nothing final tonight.
frosty
@Adam: ETA the poll I watched in 2016 was as red as they get. 80% Republican IIRC. But the officials and judges were more than fair to me as a D poll watcher and made sure I got the names when they were called out.
eclare
@WaterGirl: Doesn’t it! Have been watching for 2.5 hours, seems like much longer.
Mary G
Pennsylvania election attorney: it won’t be decided tonight, whole thread on twitter:
WaterGirl
@Immanentize: Now I’m even more tired! :-)
frosty
@MomSense: @Shana: And me. Guess I didn’t have anything important to do tonight.
Another Scott
WaPo:
Conor’s lead got a little bigger
98.0% reporting
Candidate Votes PCT
Conor Lamb (D) 107,471 49.9%
Rick Saccone (R) 106,771 49.5%
+0.4%, +700 votes over Rick.
Cheers,
Scott.
Major Major Major Major
@WaterGirl: seems a lot earlier than 9:30 out here ?
randy khan
700 votes. Not clear which precincts are left.
Mnemosyne
Is it just me, or does it seem weird to count the absentee ballots after the regular ballots? Wouldn’t it be better to start counting those the morning of election day so you don’t have to stay even later that night?
BlueDWarrior
@dmsilev: being ahead after election night does mean quite a bit in waging the PR war over a recount. At the same time, there being so many absentees means tonight’s count is very unlikely the last word.
WaterGirl
@eclare: Henry is sleeping like a baby right next to me, maybe I need to take my cue from him.
MomSense
@frosty:
After the stressful day the sane part of the nation had today, a win in PA would be a boost.
patroclus
Margin at 700. 98%
??? Martin
@Immanentize: The remaining precincts generally lean more heavily Tump than the counties they are in. But the absentee total to count keeps climbing, so maybe that saves Lamb.
Emma
Well, I for one am amazed that it is this close. A friend of mine, former resident of PA, calls some of that area “the baboon’s ass” because of how red it is.
And people, the world won’t end if this one goes against us. It’s a war and this battle is only one of the first skirmishes.
Lapassionara
@Schlemazel: When I have voted absentee, I have gone to the County office and voted on a voting machine, just like the one in my precinct. It is not like people have to mail ballots in, although that may be what some people do. it is the same as early voting. So the numbers should be readily available. Wondering who is watching the polls for Lamb. This is where tricks can happen.
randy khan
Some good news on absentee ballots: More than half are from the blue county (3,750 out of just short of 7,000), and apparently they historically skew Dem.
eric
info on breakdown absentees
Immanentize
I hope all of Lamb’s relatives remembered to vote!
eclare
@WaterGirl: Awww, so sweet! My pup is here next to me, also snoozing. There is definitely a lesson.
SFAW
@Omnes Omnibus:
My work here is done.
[Saunters off stage right, humming under his breath. Exeunt omnes (but not Omnes)].
MomSense
@Mnemosyne:
That’s what we do in Maine. This district probably wasn’t expecting a result like this since they are used to +20 for Republicans.
Adam L Silverman
@Fair Economist:
WaterGirl
@Major Major Major Major: Imagine that!
hueyplong
@Fair Economist: A cynic would say the two GOPer counties want to wait to count their votes until they know how far behind they are.
MomSense
@WaterGirl:
Aww, I hope he is feeling better.
Major Major Major Major
@Mnemosyne: don’t some places do that? Report the early votes right when the polls close?
Jeffro
I think Lamb’s going to squeak it out, and the absentee ballots will give him a slight additional lead, and the GOP will go fucking berserk as usual with their weird excuses and conspiracy theories…
…and who cares? Now we know we’re looking at a pretty serious Blue Wave coming across the country. Time to start planning all those investigations and hearings that the Rs AREN’T doing. Everything from emoluments and self-dealing to getting the president’s* tax returns and having an actual Russian interference investigation.
dmsilev
@Mary G: I love the end of that thread:
guachi
@randy khan: Fewer than 1/2 of the votes cast so far (45%) have been from Allegheny (the blue county) so more than half of the absentee ballots (54%) being from there looks good on the surface.
Matt McIrvin
@Mnemosyne: From the tweet Mary G posted, it sounds as if overseas absentees (which lean R because they are heavily military, if I recall correctly) aren’t even all mailed in yet.
Baud
Allegheny County will count absentee ballots tonight. Guess I’m staying up.
ETA: Changed my mind. Too tired. Go Lamb!
lgerard
@Mnemosyne:
This is one of the biggest drawbacks to those stupid video voting terminals. With the simple paper ballot/OCR scanner those ballots could have been processed throughout the day by the precinct workers.
Adam L Silverman
@WaterGirl: How’s his knee?
Adam L Silverman
??? Martin
@Another Scott: True, but I remember Obama trailing in Indiana in 2008 with 99% in and then one heavily populated district came in and pushed him over. You couldn’t extrapolate that result from the precinct count. Same happened in MO where one part of St Louis came in last and dropped a fuckton of votes in that last 1%.
All I’m saying is to be careful thinking that the precinct % is proportional to the vote %. It often isn’t.
WaterGirl
@MomSense: He still hurts and sleeps a lot, but he is peaceful and relaxed whenever he’s here next to me on the couch. That’s really good for both of us.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Great Caesar’s Ghost! This could go on another week?
Fair Economist
@Adam L Silverman: Based on that, the absentees lean to the D county more than the election night votes did. Another good sign for us.
dww44
@Mnemosyne: I was hoping some really knowledgeable BJ’er would weigh in on your question, as I’ve often wondered the same thing. Relatedly, if an election is a blow-out and the number of absentees and provisional wouldn’t change the outcome, are those ballots still counted? Do the answers to these questions vary from state to state?
lgerard
@Jeffro:
Have there been any sightings of the Soros buses reported yet?
JMG
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: It’s like seeing a rain delay called in the 11th inning.
JCJ
@Omnes Omnibus:
Good evening! Just now looking at the thread – you are correct. I believe I saw a report that the particular area of Waukesha County in question was my area. It all made sense because this area has consistently high turnout and votes overwhelmingly R. I am surprised people still bring it up because it was pretty conclusively the incompetence of Kathy Nickolaus rather than anything nefarious.
WaterGirl
@Matt McIrvin: Surely they have to be mated before polls close on election day – otherwise the votes could be influenced by the results of stateside votes.
dmsilev
@Matt McIrvin: I believe even military ballots have to be mailed by election day; they just don’t have to make it back until later.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Praise the Lord and pass the absentee ballots.
Matt McIrvin
@Mary G: That thread now consists almost 100% of Republicans and Democrats accusing the other party of fraud.
Immanentize
@WaterGirl: very sweet and yes, good for both of you. My cat just came up to join me in bed. It really is time for lights out. G’nite and meow says the cat.
Gretchen
I just read that most of the voting machines in Pennsylvania are the touch-screens with no paper trail – so no way to recount or check that they weren’t tampered with. In other words, close enough to steal.
Washington County, Republican-leaning, was going to report by precinct, and decided not to. Charlie Pierce calls this classic election chicanery. The difference is about 700 votes right now. Close enough to steal.
eclare
Allegheny Co. election official saying 11:15 PM EDT for absentee ballot count.
guachi
IF the absentee ballots break EXACTLY like the county they came from, Lamb should gain about 170 votes from absentee ballots.
jacy
I’m going to tear myself away and go watch the last period of hockey — want to see the Avs beat the Wild senseless again. I will not look at election results again tonight. Probably.
chopper
Oy gevult but this is a nail biter. I mean I know it’s a big dem swing either way but still.
dww44
@Jeffro: But first we have to ELECT those D candidates who can conduct all those investigations. Our work is still ahead of us. As bad as the Congressional GOP and the President and his administration are, one would think that sanity would prevail and the Dem candidate would win going away.
billcoop4
If they don’t make a difference, absentee ballots are not counted; they are “apportioned” based on the in-person vote. That’s based on my admittedly anecdotal set of conversations with several people in positions to know.
If they would make a difference, they are counted in honest places. Both of them :)
BC
Mnemosyne
@lgerard:
California’s election system ain’t perfect, but at least we stuck with OCR ballots like rational people. They even have webcams set up so you can watch the very exciting process of elections workers scanning the ballots.
Fun fact about CA: Alameda County was one of the named bad counties in the Voting Rights Act. If I remember my geography right, that’s where Oakland is, so not a coincidence, to say the least.
lgerard
@dww44:
Provisionals definitely are not counted in that circumstance. In fact, there are no real rules covering the counting of provisional ballots in the law that created them, which is a major problem. Some jurisdictions make little attempt to count them no matter what the circumstances are.
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: Henry is still not using that leg much, but today he was willing to walk outside to go to the bathroom, rather than standing there waiting for me to pick him up. So that’s progress, for sure! It was a big surgery, so I think he’s doing pretty well.
It does my heart good to see him so relaxed and peaceful at the moment. The couch is apparently his magic place.
NotMax
@hueyplong
Wouldn’t necessarily read malicious intent into it. Those counties are larger in acreage and less suburban. It takes more time to physically deliver the ballots to the county seat.
Major Major Major Major
@WaterGirl: Glad to hear it.
Mary G
@dmsilev: Shout out to Cousin Vinny!
Adam L Silverman
@dww44: If I’m recalling from when I used to be a political science professor who taught state and local politics, as opposed to what I’ve been doing for the past decade or so, it 1) depends on the state and 2) some do not count them if the number of absentees and/or provisionals would not make a difference. Or, rather, they don’t rush to count them as they know they won’t change the outcome.
In this case, given how close things are, there will be pressure to count them quickly, efficiently, and accurately.
patroclus
Of course, with this being so close, it won’t be decided tonight and it will be argued about for days. But I’m not going to bed until the Allegheny County absentees come in. Lamb could widen his lead significantly. And Greene County only has 200ish absentees, which won’t be enough to tip it, even if they aren’t counted tonight. Margin at 755.
??? Martin
The biggest takeaway of this is that the GOP has put in more than $500 per competitive vote, and they are still tooth and nail. Id love to see them put $500 per competitive vote here in OC with our 2 million voters. Even the Koch’s don’t have that kind of money.
randy khan
Good news: 755.
Bad news: No more precincts from Allegheny County.
Gretchen
@Adam: Charlie Pierce has the same worry as you.
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: should be mailed, not mated.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Drumpf held his campaign rally in Moon Township
Lamb won Moon Township by 6.5%. Trump carried it by 11% in 2016. 17.5 pt shift.
BlueDWarrior
@Mary G: and the margin is so razor thin we might not have an official winner until the end of the month.
Joy…
Sab
@Omnes Omnibus: Have I ever mentioned that my grandmother was from Wisconsin? Her uncle was Republican and a Progressive governor (Francis McGovern) Times change.
dww44
@billcoop4: @lgerard:
Thanks to both of you. I am now better informed and educated about voting. We should have better systems for voting and counting them accurately and transparently.
Adam L Silverman
@WaterGirl: Excellent.
BlueDWarrior
@dww44: we should, but this is the consequence of our atomized voting system.
If only there was a way to enforce federal minimum standards. If only…
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Allegheny County is complete
Drumf +4% 2016
Lamb: +15% Tonight
19 point shift.
Bodes well for absentee ballot count.
MomSense
Did anyone else go read about the Independent candidate?
Self identified fiscal conservative, social liberal, minimize government interference type. Lives outside the district. He’s an energy attorney. Was legal counsel for McCandless who was the Republican state senator who was convicted on corruption charges.
NotMax
@DlueDWarrior
Proverbially, March goes out like a lamb.
;)
randy khan
11 precincts left, all in red counties. Still +755 for Lamb.
??? Martin
Huh, Lamb might have this after all. That would be super good. Probably in recount territory though.
Matt McIrvin
@Adam L Silverman: There are now many states where you don’t need an excuse for mail-in voting, so it could be a rather large fraction of the total (and in Oregon, it’s all mail-in voting). That probably changes the calculus.
Massachusetts introduced mail-in voting for 2016, and also early voting, which is really mail-in voting at a fixed location. But they also retained their old absentee ballot system, which is distinct. I’m not entirely sure why (maybe just organizational inertia, or maybe it’s that you can get absentee ballots for all elections but the others are only for the statewide elections every two years).
WaterGirl
Goodnight, all.
Adam L Silverman
@Matt McIrvin: I’m aware. I just remember, from when I lived there, that PA was very restrictive regarding the circumstances under which one could get an absentee ballot. I haven’t lived there since AUG 2014, so the rules may have been changed since then.
NotMax
So when does Dolt 45 tweet that “millions of fraudulent votes” were cast today?
MomSense
@Adam L Silverman:
I believe you have to be away on Election Day in PA. In Maine absentee functions as an early vote.
Matt McIrvin
@BlueDWarrior: I get paranoid: federal standards would also mean federal fuckery. Kobach types sending ICE agents to every polling place to enforce the integrity of the vote against the secret white vans of illegal immigrants.
MomSense
@WaterGirl:
Night WaterGirl. Night Henry. And John boy.
randy khan
NY Times has it at +95, with two precincts left. Plus the absentee ballots, of course.
Fingers crossed.
MomSense
95 votes.
Gah!
BlueDWarrior
@Matt McIrvin: Well, you have to remember this: any system devised by man can be broken by man.
Also this race is still sitting on the razor’s edge, +80 for Lamb without absentees reported.
Matt McIrvin
Lamb’s lead is down to 95 votes, and Westmoreland is the only county listed at “99%”. Is this where they pull the required votes out of their asses?
(That’s without the absentees, though.)
Victor Matheson
2 precincts left and Conor’s lead is down to 95 votes.
Bupalos
I think the takeaway here will be that we can win elections just about anywhere in this cycle, but that the general environment isn’t just going to win them for us. Need good candidates, need to push as hard as we can, need to fund it, need to FIGHT. And if we do will will shitstomp these stupid MAGAts.
Looks like Lamb’s going to Washington and Trump can pretend he’s happy a +16 turned into a -0 all he wants, they are ?!#+ed. I’m going to work my butt off to sent betsy rader (oh14) there too, this result is super encouraging for our race.
BlueDWarrior
@Bupalos: This race isn’t a bellweather, it’s more like a canary in the coal mine.
And that canary is looking pretty sick and laid out on its back.
Adam L Silverman
@MomSense: That was my recollection.
lurker dean
@Adam L Silverman: i think that’s right, adam. I vaguely remember checking if i could vote absentee in pa just to avoid having to leave the house, and that wasn’t a valid circumstance.
BlueDWarrior
… the Lead just jumped to +847
Who knows what came in though, people are trying to figure out if it was a chunk of the absentee or if that was the last boxes coming in from Westmoreland.
Probably the former.
mike in dc
Vote for Lamb just surged a bit. Back out to 800+ vote lead.
randy khan
Allegheny absentee votes came in, pushing the lead to 847. (That’s a gain of 752 from 3,750 ballots, roughly 60-40, which is, as predicted elsewhere, a few points ahead of how he did in the live voting.)
Still two precincts out from non-absentee votes.
Bupalos
@BlueDWarrior: not sure if that means better or worse. Considering how much of the trump agenda is aimed squarely at this exact area, I think this result is an utter disaster for him. God I hope republicans are wearing the scarlet T for decades.
MomSense
Just to remind everyone, we are rooting for a blue dog to hopefully win this thing by a hair. We have to get used to the idea that a blue wave means running candidates who have a chance of winning and some of them will piss us off once elected.
Matt McIrvin
@Adam L Silverman: It appears that you need to give a reason, but the list of reasons is pretty expansive, including being absent on vacation or on business.
patrick II
I am watching Fox News to see what they have to say and one of the two people on screen passed some serious gas. Maybe its an omen.
mike in dc
@MomSense: So long as we abolish the legislative filibuster next time we control the Senate, and get enough votes in the House to pass our core platform, I don’t care if they go astray on some issues.
Matt McIrvin
@MomSense: Same thing happened after 2006-2008. Some of the Democrats elected were not loyal party-line voters. It comes with the territory. But there’s so little ideological overlap between the parties now that any D win is pretty much guaranteed to be better than the alternative.
MomSense
@mike in dc:
I agree. I’d rather have Pelosi herding them in Congress.
MomSense
@Matt McIrvin:
Sadly the overlap is usually on two of the issues I care most about but we have a better shot at moving a Dem on our issues once in office.
Omnes Omnibus
@JCJ: She was not well respected when I worked at the GAB.
joel hanes
Lamb (D) … must decide which district(s) to run for in the fall & collect 1,000 valid signatures before the filing deadline (3/20) in just ONE WEEK.
See, in my dreams there’s a national or state Dem organization that is aware of things like that and has said “We’re on it.” and can deliver, so that this is an issue but not a problem.
joel hanes
@dww44:
better systems for voting
To the extent possible, insist on hand-marked paper ballots (absentee, early voting, etc.).
Be very suspicious of computer vote entry with no paper record.
randy khan
Nate Cohn’s rough analysis is that Lamb will lose about 200 votes from the two outstanding precincts, which would require a 60-40 margin from the outstanding absentee ballots for Saccone to win. Since Saccone didn’t win the live vote in those counties by that big a margin, it’s a heavy lift. (And since the absentee ballot count is the number sent out, not the number received, it’s an even heavier lift.) He thinks Lamb wins as a result.
Here’s the Twitter thread: Nate says
What are the odds that there would be two election results gurus who worked for the NY Times who are both named Nate? (I know, they could tell you.)
trnc
@patrick II: How could you tell the difference from those gasbags?