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You are here: Home / Politics / America / PA 18 Special Election Part 2

PA 18 Special Election Part 2

by Adam L Silverman|  March 13, 20189:58 pm| 237 Comments

This post is in: America, Domestic Politics, Election 2018, Open Threads, Politics, Popular Culture, Post-racial America

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With 93% reporting in PA 18 Conor Lamb has a 928 vote lead over Rick Saccone. Here’s some thoughts from Harry Enten of 538:

Things that are true now that'll be true after PA-18: The president has a 40% approval rating. Not good. The president's party is down by around 10 points on the generic. Not good. The average swing in federal special elections has been 16 pts against the prez's party. Not good.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 13, 2018

The final polling average had Lamb +2.5. Margin of error on special election polling averages is +/- 10 points. So this will fall within that…

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 14, 2018

To put this in perspective, the Dem swing from the partisan lean (using the margin) in the 8 special elections so far including this one is +17. In 2006, it was +15 for comparison.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 14, 2018

Open thread!

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Previous Post: « PA-18 results open thread
Next Post: PA Special Election Pt. III (& Re-counting?) »

Reader Interactions

237Comments

  1. 1.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 10:00 pm

    A few more precincts trickled in:

    Conor Lamb Democrat 102,839 50.0%
    Rick Saccone Republican 101,707 49.4
    Drew Miller Libertarian 1,267 0.6

  2. 2.

    lgerard

    March 13, 2018 at 10:00 pm

    So Drew Miller, the Libertarian may be the deciding factor for the good guys

    C’mon invisible hand!!

  3. 3.

    EBT

    March 13, 2018 at 10:01 pm

    Lamb is eking back up as the finish line approaches.

  4. 4.

    efgoldman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:01 pm

    Didn’t need those fingernails anyway

  5. 5.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 10:01 pm

    @lgerard:

    The Greens must be kicking themselves for not running a spoiler candidate.

  6. 6.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 10:01 pm

    If vote percentages hold EXACTLY as they are now for the remaining votes then Lamb should squeak by with a win of about 1,000 votes.

    If.

  7. 7.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:02 pm

    1132 margin. 95%. CNN saying absentee and provisional will be counted last. (They don’t know how many but about 4-5000). Margin is 0.6%, not close enough for recount.

  8. 8.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 10:02 pm

    Because we all want to know:

    Pennsylvania recount procedures

    The secretary of the commonwealth must order a recount if any of the following conditions are met:[4]

    a candidate for statewide office was defeated by 0.5 percent or less of all votes cast for the office
    a statewide ballot measure was approved or rejected by 0.5 percent or less of all votes cast for the measure

  9. 9.

    Major Major Major Major

    March 13, 2018 at 10:03 pm

    @lgerard: I could see a libertarian thinking the ideal outcome is trumpism losing without the libertarian having to dirty his hands voting for a democrat.

  10. 10.

    p.a.

    March 13, 2018 at 10:03 pm

    What’s the min/max there for a required recount? Well ok then, thanks dm…

  11. 11.

    eric

    March 13, 2018 at 10:04 pm

    that .6 would me a lot

  12. 12.

    Mary G

    March 13, 2018 at 10:04 pm

    I see to the side that John says Saccone will pull it out. Hope he’s wrong.

  13. 13.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 10:04 pm

    @p.a.: See above (pasted in from Ballotpedia). 0.5%.

  14. 14.

    Frankensteinbeck

    March 13, 2018 at 10:04 pm

    I’m not putting any emotional investment into this race either way, but a win would be cool.

  15. 15.

    eemom

    March 13, 2018 at 10:05 pm

    “Not good” for WHO? I mean, aside from Enten and his parasitic horserace loving ilk for whom the actual results mean nothing.

  16. 16.

    OGLiberal

    March 13, 2018 at 10:05 pm

    @dmsilev: Is this considered a statewide race if only one part of the state is voting?

  17. 17.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:05 pm

    @lgerard: Every single time. They’re not running because they have better ideas, they’re running to spoil the election. Someone should really look into who funds the Libertarian Party and the campaigns of these candidates.

  18. 18.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 10:05 pm

    @Frankensteinbeck: Agree. The story is that it’s close.

  19. 19.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:06 pm

    1238 margin 96%.

  20. 20.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 10:06 pm

    WaPo:
    95.8% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 103,768 50.0%
    Rick Saccone (R) 102,530 49.4%

    (-0.6%, -1238 to change the results)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  21. 21.

    JaneSays

    March 13, 2018 at 10:06 pm

    +1238 for Lamb now, 96% reporting

  22. 22.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:06 pm

    Good!

    The family of DNC staffer Seth Rich has filed a lawsuit against Fox News, an investigative reporter and one of the network's contributors, ABC News reports. https://t.co/63ClSy9pA1

    — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) March 14, 2018

  23. 23.

    frosty

    March 13, 2018 at 10:06 pm

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    I’m not putting any emotional investment into this race either way, ….

    Dammit, I am.

  24. 24.

    NorthLeft12

    March 13, 2018 at 10:06 pm

    How long before Deadbeat Donald’s first tweet calling Saccone a terrible candidate and a loser?

  25. 25.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 10:07 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Excellent. I hope Hannity is personally named.

  26. 26.

    eclare

    March 13, 2018 at 10:07 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: This 1000%. And the Greens.

  27. 27.

    Immanentize

    March 13, 2018 at 10:07 pm

    @dmsilev: This is not a state-wide office, so?

  28. 28.

    NotMax

    March 13, 2018 at 10:07 pm

    Repeating, FYI.

    Pennsylvania uses paper and Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) systems for its elections. The state does not require a voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) when conducting elections. According to the National Academy of Sciences, a voter-verified paper audit trail “consists of physical paper records of voter ballots as voters have cast them on an electronic voting system. In the event that an election recount or audit is called for, the VVPAT provides a supporting record.”

    Pennsylvania recount procedures

    A recount of ballots is required in an election district if three qualified electors in that district file a petition alleging that fraud or error occurred in the tabulation of votes or the marking of election ballots. Petitioners are not required to “specify in their petition the particular act of fraud or error which they believe to have been committed nor to offer evidence to substantiate the allegations of their petition.” The petition must be accompanied by a $50 deposit, which will be retained by election officials if it is determined that fraud or error did not occur. This deposit is due to each county in which a recount is requested.

    The secretary of the commonwealth must order a recount if any of the following conditions are met:

    a candidate for statewide office was defeated by 0.5 percent or less of all votes cast for the office
    a statewide ballot measure was approved or rejected by 0.5 percent or less of all votes cast for the measure

    Source

  29. 29.

    Tilda Swintons Bald Cap

    March 13, 2018 at 10:07 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Yep.

  30. 30.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 10:07 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Good!

  31. 31.

    BlueDWarrior

    March 13, 2018 at 10:08 pm

    @frosty: This is a lot like the Ossoff race. It’s one you want, but it’s low on the ‘need’ list when we are looking at races to flip for the win.

  32. 32.

    Lapassionara

    March 13, 2018 at 10:09 pm

    I have gotten better and more up-to-date information on BJ tonight than any other site I have visited. Not a controlled or peer- reviewed study, but thanks, Jackals!

  33. 33.

    Fair Economist

    March 13, 2018 at 10:09 pm

    The last few updates have all been from Democratic-leaning Allegheny. The last 6% or so of the Republican counties is being held back.

  34. 34.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:10 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: @Baud: What’s the backstory on this? So many terrible things have happened, it’s hard to keep them straight. Super-short cliff notes version would be fine, if either of you is so inclined.

  35. 35.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:10 pm

    Is anyone gonna tell Adam that “Conor” has only 1 “N” in it?

  36. 36.

    Ken

    March 13, 2018 at 10:10 pm

    @NorthLeft12: That’s the only emotional investment I have in this. I don’t want to give Trump the satisfaction of gloating about how his brilliant campaign appearance won this election.

  37. 37.

    mike in dc

    March 13, 2018 at 10:11 pm

    @NotMax: .5% here would be around 1100 votes. So if Lamb wins by more than that, no automatic recount.

  38. 38.

    EBT

    March 13, 2018 at 10:11 pm

    https://twitter.com/MagsVisaggs/status/973577815928033280

  39. 39.

    SFAW

    March 13, 2018 at 10:11 pm

    @guachi:

    I make it closer to 1100, if the percentages hold, but as you said:

    IF

  40. 40.

    joel hanes

    March 13, 2018 at 10:12 pm

    @NotMax:

    and Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) systems for its elections. The state does not require a voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) when conducting elections.

    So, since they’ve deliberately left the door open for shenanigans …

  41. 41.

    trollhattan

    March 13, 2018 at 10:12 pm

    @patroclus:
    Next you’ll be telling us the camera brand isn’t Cannon. Hrrmph!

  42. 42.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:13 pm

    Geez. 918 margin.

  43. 43.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:13 pm

    I have been pretty successful in my determination not to eat after 7pm, but I seriously want to eat something. I’m hungry and nervous, not a good combination.

  44. 44.

    jacy

    March 13, 2018 at 10:13 pm

    @mike in dc:

    According to CNN — Pennsylvania Sec. of State spokesperson Wanda Murren tells CNN that b/c this is a district race & not statewide, there is no mandatory recount here. Petitions are allowed, which require 3 voters in each precinct; have 5 days to file after the county completes its computation.

  45. 45.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 10:13 pm

    STFU Alter.

  46. 46.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:13 pm

    @patroclus: Oh shit, then I have been spelling his name wrong all day.

  47. 47.

    frosty

    March 13, 2018 at 10:14 pm

    @BlueDWarrior: I know (some of) the area. My mother grew up in Mt. Lebanon and we visited my grandparents there a lot. I have some ancestors from Washington County who apparently were part of the Whiskey Rebellion.

  48. 48.

    MomSense

    March 13, 2018 at 10:14 pm

    @frosty:

    I swore I wouldn’t but now I’m refreshing the NYT vote count page every 3.5 seconds.

    Aaaaarrrggghhh.

  49. 49.

    Princess

    March 13, 2018 at 10:14 pm

    Pennsylvania Sec. of State spokesperson Wanda Murren tells CNN that b/c this is a district race & not statewide, there is no mandatory recount here. Petitions are allowed, which require 3 voters in each precinct; have 5 days to file after the county completes its computation.— David Wright (@DavidWright_CNN) March 14, 2018

  50. 50.

    NotMax

    March 13, 2018 at 10:14 pm

    @Lapassionara

    All this and recipes, too!

    What to Drink on Election Night, According to Your Emotional State

    :)

  51. 51.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 10:14 pm

    WaPo:
    96.3% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 104,697 49.9%
    Rick Saccone (R) 103,779 49.5%

    (-0.4%, -918 votes)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  52. 52.

    Immanentize

    March 13, 2018 at 10:14 pm

    @jacy: Thank you!

  53. 53.

    lgerard

    March 13, 2018 at 10:15 pm

    @mike in dc:

    You have to count the absentee ballots before you can determine whether a recount is automatic though.

  54. 54.

    frosty

    March 13, 2018 at 10:15 pm

    @joel hanes: S

    o, since they’ve deliberately left the door open for shenanigans …

    Yes, one thing that pisses me off about PA. Voting machines are chosen by County. I vote on the same crap.

  55. 55.

    Matt McIrvin

    March 13, 2018 at 10:15 pm

    @patroclus: That last jump was from a bunch of votes in Westmoreland, now 99% in. There’s not enough left there to put Saccone over, so it’s mostly down to the remaining precincts in Washington and Allegheny.

  56. 56.

    Schlemazel

    March 13, 2018 at 10:15 pm

    They will count the absentee ballots, which I have readis 4-5,000 so this will not be over tonight I don’t imagine. Normally this is not an important race but I think a win is huge not just because of what it tells the GOP but it prevents twitler from claiming it is a victory. If numbnuts pulls this out, even by 1 vote hair furor and the media will be painting it as a great GOP victory by Thursday. If they lose, even if by 1 vote, it shuts that shit off at the source.

  57. 57.

    Fair Economist

    March 13, 2018 at 10:16 pm

    Westmoreland, the largest R county, is now 99% in. The remaining votes in R counties, at the current percentages, would only give about a 400 vote boost to Saccone. It’s very hard to see a Saccone win with the election night votes now. Anybody know how the absentees lean and how many there are?

    Edit: Ninja’d, dangit.

  58. 58.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 10:16 pm

    Dave Wasserman
    ‏ @Redistrict
    6m6 minutes ago

    Lamb (D) up 1,238 votes w/ 96% of precincts counted. Of the 25 outstanding precincts, 18 are in Washington/Westmoreland Co. and should favor Saccone (R). *Probably* not by enough to overtake Lamb (D) in raw votes. #PA18

    19 replies 155 retweets 287 likes

  59. 59.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 10:16 pm

    9000 more votes left to count. More in red areas.

  60. 60.

    p.a.

    March 13, 2018 at 10:17 pm

    What about absentee ballots? Ha! 2nd time I’m 2 comments later than the answer to my Q. I’ll shut up now…

  61. 61.

    Adam

    March 13, 2018 at 10:17 pm

    Am I the only person worried that this whole Westmoreland County isn’t releasing precinct level results going to lead them to “find” the votes they need to push Saccone over the finish line?

  62. 62.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 10:17 pm

    Slightly good news on that last batch of Westmoreland votes for Lamb. It wasn’t overwhelmingly better for Saccone than his previous total – 57.35% vs. 57.47%.

  63. 63.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:17 pm

    @Schlemazel: The guy counting them was just interviewed on CNN and he said the count would be available by midnight (EDT). And they are now estimating 6907 absentee/provisionals.

  64. 64.

    frosty

    March 13, 2018 at 10:18 pm

    @MomSense: I’m refreshing this page just as often to get 2 or 3 new comments. Tried TPM and GOS, BJ is better.

  65. 65.

    tobie

    March 13, 2018 at 10:18 pm

    @joel hanes: I will never understand why the Democratic Gov of PA has done nothing to ensure the integrity of the vote in PA. Tom Wolf is a wimp.

  66. 66.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 10:18 pm

    @patroclus: Ugh. Not staying up that late.

  67. 67.

    BlueDWarrior

    March 13, 2018 at 10:18 pm

    I mean, it’d suck if he lost, but if you are taking a district that was unopposed to the wire in a special election, you are doing something right.

  68. 68.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 10:19 pm

    April
    ‏ @speakout_april
    8m8 minutes ago

    Absentee ballots in Allegheny are approx. 3700!!!

    1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes

  69. 69.

    Shana

    March 13, 2018 at 10:19 pm

    @lgerard: I bet a lot of those absentee votes are D.

  70. 70.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:19 pm

    @WaterGirl: Assange, Stone, Piss Boy Posobiec, Mandrill Mentality Cernovich, Rage Furby Johnson, Dim Jim Hoft and his Twink for Trump Wintrich, other alt-righters, and Hannity went all in that Seth Rich wasn’t the tragic victim of a random stranger on stranger robbery homicide. Rather he was actually the person that stole all the information from the DNC’s servers and sent it to Guccifer 2.0. And Hillary Clinton had him murdered for it.

    Ghouls!

  71. 71.

    lgerard

    March 13, 2018 at 10:19 pm

    @Schlemazel:

    4-5000 absentee ballots is an absurdly high number, I am dubious

  72. 72.

    BlueDWarrior

    March 13, 2018 at 10:19 pm

    @tobie: What could he do by fiat given the very Republican legislature?

  73. 73.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 10:20 pm

    Looks like Saccone needs about 55.7% of the remaining vote to win (before absentee votes, etc.). That’s very doable but more likely good for Lamb, I’d think.

  74. 74.

    Omnes Omnibus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:20 pm

    @Adam: I will cut the first person who mentions Waukesha County. And the second, since I just had to cut myself.

  75. 75.

    Fair Economist

    March 13, 2018 at 10:20 pm

    @tobie:

    I will never understand why the Democratic Gov of PA has done nothing to ensure the integrity of the vote in PA. Tom Wolf is a wimp.

    Um, separation of powers and an overwhelmingly R statehouse? Or does my snark detector need calibration?

  76. 76.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:20 pm

    @patroclus: I’ll fix it.

  77. 77.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:20 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Thank you. Fuckers.

  78. 78.

    frosty

    March 13, 2018 at 10:20 pm

    @Adam: I’ve been a poll watcher in York County. I trust the election judges. The counts at the polls were clean. I don’t know about the tabulators though.

  79. 79.

    Gretchen

    March 13, 2018 at 10:20 pm

    @patroclus: what is the margin for a recount?

  80. 80.

    Immanentize

    March 13, 2018 at 10:21 pm

    @BlueDWarrior:
    True, but there is an opportunity to break the will of Republicans. If Lamb wins, many more retirements on the R side.

  81. 81.

    Major Major Major Major

    March 13, 2018 at 10:21 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: dude, that isn’t healthy, do you need to call somebody?

  82. 82.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:22 pm

    @joel hanes:

    But here's the rub: PA uses touch screen voting machines with no paper trail. The only thing you can recount is the absentee paper ballots (and check the tallies of the machines were downloaded correctly) https://t.co/L6RSunD5rC

    — Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) March 14, 2018

  83. 83.

    Achrachno

    March 13, 2018 at 10:22 pm

    @frosty: Everyone knows that!

  84. 84.

    Fair Economist

    March 13, 2018 at 10:22 pm

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: If well over half the absentees are from Allegheny, that’s very good for us. Provisionals always break for us since voter suppression is targeted at Democrats.

  85. 85.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:22 pm

    @Gretchen: For a statewide race (which this isn’t), it’s 0.5%. Otherwise, it’s 3 voters in each precinct and 5 days to do it.

    Margin at 795. And as I type, it drops to 540.

  86. 86.

    frosty

    March 13, 2018 at 10:23 pm

    @tobie: Wolf and the State Supreme Court stopped Voter ID in PA. The lege is hard right Republican, and most of the counties are too. I don’t know enough to say who decides what voting machines are used, but I think it’s counties.

  87. 87.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:23 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Pretty sure that was a figurative cutting, not a literal cutting. If I’m wrong, then yeah, what you said.

  88. 88.

    japa21

    March 13, 2018 at 10:23 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Interesting you say that, because my mind turned to that very subject, meaning the county I will not name,; earlier. Then I said to myself, if I bring it up Omnes is going to hurt me.

  89. 89.

    Schlemazel

    March 13, 2018 at 10:23 pm

    @patroclus:
    Thanks!

  90. 90.

    randy khan

    March 13, 2018 at 10:23 pm

    Now 697, with 98% of Allegheny (blue), 99% of Westmoreland (red) and 90% of Washington (red, but a lot smaller). If the trends hold, he’d end up ahead by 500 or so.

  91. 91.

    Omnes Omnibus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:23 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: I was making good on my threat. I am like that.

  92. 92.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 10:24 pm

    540 vote margin. May come down to absentees.

  93. 93.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 10:24 pm

    I’ve seen 99% numbers mentioned above, but…

    WaPo:
    97.5% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 106,549 49.8%
    Rick Saccone (R) 106,009 49.6%

    97.8% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 107,155 49.8%
    Rick Saccone (R) 106,570 49.6%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  94. 94.

    ??‍? Martin

    March 13, 2018 at 10:24 pm

    Saccone is likely to squeak this out.

  95. 95.

    Major Major Major Major

    March 13, 2018 at 10:25 pm

    @WaterGirl: well obvs. OO doesn’t seem the type.

  96. 96.

    randy khan

    March 13, 2018 at 10:25 pm

    @Baud:

    May come down to absentees.

    Probably.

  97. 97.

    ??‍? Martin

    March 13, 2018 at 10:25 pm

    The % reporting is precincts, not voters. Not all precincts are the same size.

  98. 98.

    NotMax

    March 13, 2018 at 10:25 pm

    Any reports on how much snow/sleet/rain there was in the district today?

  99. 99.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:26 pm

    585 margin.

  100. 100.

    SFAW

    March 13, 2018 at 10:26 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Then I shouldn’t mention that Hitlary didn’t campaign in Westmoreland County?

  101. 101.

    Quinerly

    March 13, 2018 at 10:26 pm

    540 difference. Lamb up. Libertarian candidate with about 1100 votes.

  102. 102.

    Omnes Omnibus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:26 pm

    @japa21: I have posted the official report and the independent report several times. I am not doing it again, but it was incompetence not malice. Hence the stabby, cutty feels.

  103. 103.

    eclare

    March 13, 2018 at 10:26 pm

    @Baud: Seems like it will, since there are around 7,000 of them in total.

  104. 104.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:26 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: oops, I’m a little wound up about this election. that’s my excuse.

  105. 105.

    MomSense

    March 13, 2018 at 10:27 pm

    @frosty:

    God dammit this is killing me

  106. 106.

    tobie

    March 13, 2018 at 10:27 pm

    @Fair Economist: I believe elections are supervised by the Sec of State in PA–a position appointed by the Governor. Need to look into this.

  107. 107.

    Adam

    March 13, 2018 at 10:27 pm

    @frosty: crossing my fingers that the tabulators are clean, I worry about that. But I worry about everything.

  108. 108.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:27 pm

    @lgerard: If I recall correctly, unlike a lot of other states that let you request an absentee ballot for any reason, Pennsylvania really limits who can vote by absentee ballot.

  109. 109.

    randy khan

    March 13, 2018 at 10:27 pm

    Back up to 585.

    13 precincts still out, mostly red or reddish.

  110. 110.

    Immanentize

    March 13, 2018 at 10:27 pm

    @??‍? Martin:
    Why, exactly, do you say this?

  111. 111.

    Omnes Omnibus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:27 pm

    @SFAW: Gah!

  112. 112.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 10:27 pm

    Alter needs to be Tillersonned.

  113. 113.

    Schlemazel

    March 13, 2018 at 10:27 pm

    @lgerard:
    see: @patroclus:

    I believe more and more people are using absentee ballots now that 8-10 years ago. I know here they changed the law so you don’t have to actually not be home on election day and can vote absentee simply because you feel like it. For some people that is easier.

  114. 114.

    eric

    March 13, 2018 at 10:28 pm

    from GOS

    Bad news: Greene and Washington counties will not be reporting their absentee votes tonight. Votes will be counted and posted tomorrow, per @katiegp.

  115. 115.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 10:28 pm

    @??‍? Martin: Yeahbut, if they’ve counted all the precincts, then they’ve counted all the votes (except for absentee, provisional, etc.). Of course.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  116. 116.

    Shana

    March 13, 2018 at 10:28 pm

    @MomSense: You and me both.

  117. 117.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 10:28 pm

    I wouldn’t be surprised if this initial count has a margin of less than 100.

  118. 118.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 10:28 pm

    @eric: Well, I’m going to bed soon then.

  119. 119.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:29 pm

    I don’t think I have ever woken up to happy news if I go to bed before the race is called, so I’m hesitant to go to bed even though I am really tired. It seems much later than 9:30!

  120. 120.

    eric

    March 13, 2018 at 10:29 pm

    @Baud: I am the party killer.

  121. 121.

    BlueDWarrior

    March 13, 2018 at 10:29 pm

    This race is balanced on the knife’s edge. And yeah, any number tonight has to be taken with a grain of salt because of a few thousand absentee votes floating about.

  122. 122.

    Lapassionara

    March 13, 2018 at 10:29 pm

    @NotMax: LOL. I needed that.

  123. 123.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 10:29 pm

    Dave Wasserman
    ‏ @Redistrict
    5m5 minutes ago

    It’s been reported that there were about 6-7k absentees cast in #PA18. In the past, absentees have run slightly more Dem than the overall vote and I don’t believe they’ve been counted yet. They may matter here.

    25 replies 202 retweets 358 likes

  124. 124.

    Immanentize

    March 13, 2018 at 10:30 pm

    @WaterGirl: it is. It’s 10:30! (here)

  125. 125.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 10:30 pm

    Eyeballing the numbers, assuming that the precincts outstanding in Washington county (which is only 93% reporting) are similar to the rest of the county, Lamb would probably lose another 200 or so votes off his current margin, so he’d end up ahead at this point. Then there are the provisionals etc., and then the inevitable recount. So, no matter what, we’re not getting a definitive answer tonight.

  126. 126.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:30 pm

    @eric: Are those D or R counties?

  127. 127.

    Fair Economist

    March 13, 2018 at 10:31 pm

    Often “99%” means everything but the absentees and/or provisionals, as it looks bad to have the numbers change after it’s 100% in. If so, nothing will be settled until tomorrow at the earliest based on the upthread comment that the R counties aren’t going to count their absentees tonight.

    Edit: 2 out of 3, and not including the biggest R county. But still, nothing final tonight.

  128. 128.

    frosty

    March 13, 2018 at 10:31 pm

    @Adam: ETA the poll I watched in 2016 was as red as they get. 80% Republican IIRC. But the officials and judges were more than fair to me as a D poll watcher and made sure I got the names when they were called out.

  129. 129.

    eclare

    March 13, 2018 at 10:32 pm

    @WaterGirl: Doesn’t it! Have been watching for 2.5 hours, seems like much longer.

  130. 130.

    Mary G

    March 13, 2018 at 10:32 pm

    Pennsylvania election attorney: it won’t be decided tonight, whole thread on twitter:

    If I have to, I'll explain. Promise. But the first important thing to know is that this is not a count tonight; it's unofficial and does not include absentee or provisional ballots. The formal count begins Friday, & overseas/military absentees have until next Tues to come in. https://t.co/M43ENosfZk— Adam Bonin (@adambonin) March 14, 2018

  131. 131.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:32 pm

    @Immanentize: Now I’m even more tired! :-)

  132. 132.

    frosty

    March 13, 2018 at 10:32 pm

    @MomSense: @Shana: And me. Guess I didn’t have anything important to do tonight.

  133. 133.

    Another Scott

    March 13, 2018 at 10:32 pm

    WaPo:

    Conor’s lead got a little bigger
    98.0% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 107,471 49.9%
    Rick Saccone (R) 106,771 49.5%

    +0.4%, +700 votes over Rick.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  134. 134.

    Major Major Major Major

    March 13, 2018 at 10:32 pm

    @WaterGirl: seems a lot earlier than 9:30 out here ?

  135. 135.

    randy khan

    March 13, 2018 at 10:33 pm

    700 votes. Not clear which precincts are left.

  136. 136.

    Mnemosyne

    March 13, 2018 at 10:33 pm

    Is it just me, or does it seem weird to count the absentee ballots after the regular ballots? Wouldn’t it be better to start counting those the morning of election day so you don’t have to stay even later that night?

  137. 137.

    BlueDWarrior

    March 13, 2018 at 10:33 pm

    @dmsilev: being ahead after election night does mean quite a bit in waging the PR war over a recount. At the same time, there being so many absentees means tonight’s count is very unlikely the last word.

  138. 138.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    @eclare: Henry is sleeping like a baby right next to me, maybe I need to take my cue from him.

  139. 139.

    MomSense

    March 13, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    @frosty:

    After the stressful day the sane part of the nation had today, a win in PA would be a boost.

  140. 140.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    Margin at 700. 98%

  141. 141.

    ??‍? Martin

    March 13, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    @Immanentize: The remaining precincts generally lean more heavily Tump than the counties they are in. But the absentee total to count keeps climbing, so maybe that saves Lamb.

  142. 142.

    Emma

    March 13, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    Well, I for one am amazed that it is this close. A friend of mine, former resident of PA, calls some of that area “the baboon’s ass” because of how red it is.

    And people, the world won’t end if this one goes against us. It’s a war and this battle is only one of the first skirmishes.

  143. 143.

    Lapassionara

    March 13, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    @Schlemazel: When I have voted absentee, I have gone to the County office and voted on a voting machine, just like the one in my precinct. It is not like people have to mail ballots in, although that may be what some people do. it is the same as early voting. So the numbers should be readily available. Wondering who is watching the polls for Lamb. This is where tricks can happen.

  144. 144.

    randy khan

    March 13, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    Some good news on absentee ballots: More than half are from the blue county (3,750 out of just short of 7,000), and apparently they historically skew Dem.

  145. 145.

    eric

    March 13, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    info on breakdown absentees

  146. 146.

    Immanentize

    March 13, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    I hope all of Lamb’s relatives remembered to vote!

  147. 147.

    eclare

    March 13, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    @WaterGirl: Awww, so sweet! My pup is here next to me, also snoozing. There is definitely a lesson.

  148. 148.

    SFAW

    March 13, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Gah!

    My work here is done.

    [Saunters off stage right, humming under his breath. Exeunt omnes (but not Omnes)].

  149. 149.

    MomSense

    March 13, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    @Mnemosyne:

    That’s what we do in Maine. This district probably wasn’t expecting a result like this since they are used to +20 for Republicans.

  150. 150.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    @Fair Economist:

    Here is a screenshot. pic.twitter.com/YKelA1Y9rD

    — Michael Porter (@mikeporter) March 14, 2018

  151. 151.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Imagine that!

  152. 152.

    hueyplong

    March 13, 2018 at 10:36 pm

    @Fair Economist: A cynic would say the two GOPer counties want to wait to count their votes until they know how far behind they are.

  153. 153.

    MomSense

    March 13, 2018 at 10:36 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    Aww, I hope he is feeling better.

  154. 154.

    Major Major Major Major

    March 13, 2018 at 10:36 pm

    @Mnemosyne: don’t some places do that? Report the early votes right when the polls close?

  155. 155.

    Jeffro

    March 13, 2018 at 10:36 pm

    I think Lamb’s going to squeak it out, and the absentee ballots will give him a slight additional lead, and the GOP will go fucking berserk as usual with their weird excuses and conspiracy theories…

    …and who cares? Now we know we’re looking at a pretty serious Blue Wave coming across the country. Time to start planning all those investigations and hearings that the Rs AREN’T doing. Everything from emoluments and self-dealing to getting the president’s* tax returns and having an actual Russian interference investigation.

  156. 156.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 10:37 pm

    @Mary G: I love the end of that thread:

    11. This is seriously weird for me. As my wife just said, this is my moment of being Marissa Tomei and being the only person on Twitter who knows a lot about which cars have positraction.

  157. 157.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 10:37 pm

    @randy khan: Fewer than 1/2 of the votes cast so far (45%) have been from Allegheny (the blue county) so more than half of the absentee ballots (54%) being from there looks good on the surface.

  158. 158.

    Matt McIrvin

    March 13, 2018 at 10:37 pm

    @Mnemosyne: From the tweet Mary G posted, it sounds as if overseas absentees (which lean R because they are heavily military, if I recall correctly) aren’t even all mailed in yet.

  159. 159.

    Baud

    March 13, 2018 at 10:38 pm

    Allegheny County will count absentee ballots tonight. Guess I’m staying up.

    ETA: Changed my mind. Too tired. Go Lamb!

  160. 160.

    lgerard

    March 13, 2018 at 10:38 pm

    @Mnemosyne:

    Is it just me, or does it seem weird to count the absentee ballots after the regular ballots? Wouldn’t it be better to start counting those the morning of election day so you don’t have to stay even later that night?

    This is one of the biggest drawbacks to those stupid video voting terminals. With the simple paper ballot/OCR scanner those ballots could have been processed throughout the day by the precinct workers.

  161. 161.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:38 pm

    @WaterGirl: How’s his knee?

  162. 162.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:39 pm

    According to ABC: About 6,000 absentee ballots have been returned in PA-18 & none have been counted so far. Allegheny & Westmoreland counties expect to count them later tonight in their final report, but Greene and Washington counties say they will not count them until tomorrow.

    — lestatdelc (@lestatdelc) March 14, 2018

    Well, with this news, I'm for bed. Hopefully this is called by the AM. But either way, it doesn't matter. A narrow GOP win or loss in this district is a really bad sign for them, fullstop. https://t.co/HK94mUdPWF

    — Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) March 14, 2018

  163. 163.

    ??‍? Martin

    March 13, 2018 at 10:39 pm

    @Another Scott: True, but I remember Obama trailing in Indiana in 2008 with 99% in and then one heavily populated district came in and pushed him over. You couldn’t extrapolate that result from the precinct count. Same happened in MO where one part of St Louis came in last and dropped a fuckton of votes in that last 1%.

    All I’m saying is to be careful thinking that the precinct % is proportional to the vote %. It often isn’t.

  164. 164.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:39 pm

    @MomSense: He still hurts and sleeps a lot, but he is peaceful and relaxed whenever he’s here next to me on the couch. That’s really good for both of us.

  165. 165.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    March 13, 2018 at 10:39 pm

    @Mary G: If I have to, I’ll explain. Promise. But the first important thing to know is that this is not a count tonight; it’s unofficial and does not include absentee or provisional ballots. The formal count begins Friday, & overseas/military absentees have until next Tues to come in. Adam Bonin (@adambonin) March 14, 2018

    Great Caesar’s Ghost! This could go on another week?

  166. 166.

    Fair Economist

    March 13, 2018 at 10:39 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Based on that, the absentees lean to the D county more than the election night votes did. Another good sign for us.

  167. 167.

    dww44

    March 13, 2018 at 10:39 pm

    @Mnemosyne: I was hoping some really knowledgeable BJ’er would weigh in on your question, as I’ve often wondered the same thing. Relatedly, if an election is a blow-out and the number of absentees and provisional wouldn’t change the outcome, are those ballots still counted? Do the answers to these questions vary from state to state?

  168. 168.

    lgerard

    March 13, 2018 at 10:40 pm

    @Jeffro:

    GOP will go fucking berserk as usual with their weird excuses and conspiracy theories…

    Have there been any sightings of the Soros buses reported yet?

  169. 169.

    JMG

    March 13, 2018 at 10:40 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: It’s like seeing a rain delay called in the 11th inning.

  170. 170.

    JCJ

    March 13, 2018 at 10:40 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Good evening! Just now looking at the thread – you are correct. I believe I saw a report that the particular area of Waukesha County in question was my area. It all made sense because this area has consistently high turnout and votes overwhelmingly R. I am surprised people still bring it up because it was pretty conclusively the incompetence of Kathy Nickolaus rather than anything nefarious.

  171. 171.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:41 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Surely they have to be mated before polls close on election day – otherwise the votes could be influenced by the results of stateside votes.

  172. 172.

    dmsilev

    March 13, 2018 at 10:41 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: I believe even military ballots have to be mailed by election day; they just don’t have to make it back until later.

  173. 173.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 10:41 pm

    Dave Wasserman
    ‏ @Redistrict
    11m11 minutes ago

    Lamb (D) should expect a pretty healthy boost from uncounted absentees. Why? 1) They’ve historically skewed Dem 2) More than half of them are from Allegheny Co. (despite Allegheny only being ~43% of #PA18).

    3 replies 47 retweets 71 likes

    Praise the Lord and pass the absentee ballots.

  174. 174.

    Matt McIrvin

    March 13, 2018 at 10:41 pm

    @Mary G: That thread now consists almost 100% of Republicans and Democrats accusing the other party of fraud.

  175. 175.

    Immanentize

    March 13, 2018 at 10:41 pm

    @WaterGirl: very sweet and yes, good for both of you. My cat just came up to join me in bed. It really is time for lights out. G’nite and meow says the cat.

  176. 176.

    Gretchen

    March 13, 2018 at 10:41 pm

    I just read that most of the voting machines in Pennsylvania are the touch-screens with no paper trail – so no way to recount or check that they weren’t tampered with. In other words, close enough to steal.
    Washington County, Republican-leaning, was going to report by precinct, and decided not to. Charlie Pierce calls this classic election chicanery. The difference is about 700 votes right now. Close enough to steal.

  177. 177.

    eclare

    March 13, 2018 at 10:42 pm

    Allegheny Co. election official saying 11:15 PM EDT for absentee ballot count.

  178. 178.

    guachi

    March 13, 2018 at 10:42 pm

    IF the absentee ballots break EXACTLY like the county they came from, Lamb should gain about 170 votes from absentee ballots.

  179. 179.

    jacy

    March 13, 2018 at 10:42 pm

    I’m going to tear myself away and go watch the last period of hockey — want to see the Avs beat the Wild senseless again. I will not look at election results again tonight. Probably.

  180. 180.

    chopper

    March 13, 2018 at 10:42 pm

    Oy gevult but this is a nail biter. I mean I know it’s a big dem swing either way but still.

  181. 181.

    dww44

    March 13, 2018 at 10:42 pm

    @Jeffro: But first we have to ELECT those D candidates who can conduct all those investigations. Our work is still ahead of us. As bad as the Congressional GOP and the President and his administration are, one would think that sanity would prevail and the Dem candidate would win going away.

  182. 182.

    billcoop4

    March 13, 2018 at 10:43 pm

    If they don’t make a difference, absentee ballots are not counted; they are “apportioned” based on the in-person vote. That’s based on my admittedly anecdotal set of conversations with several people in positions to know.

    If they would make a difference, they are counted in honest places. Both of them :)

    BC

  183. 183.

    Mnemosyne

    March 13, 2018 at 10:43 pm

    @lgerard:

    California’s election system ain’t perfect, but at least we stuck with OCR ballots like rational people. They even have webcams set up so you can watch the very exciting process of elections workers scanning the ballots.

    Fun fact about CA: Alameda County was one of the named bad counties in the Voting Rights Act. If I remember my geography right, that’s where Oakland is, so not a coincidence, to say the least.

  184. 184.

    lgerard

    March 13, 2018 at 10:43 pm

    @dww44:

    I was hoping some really knowledgeable BJ’er would weigh in on your question, as I’ve often wondered the same thing. Relatedly, if an election is a blow-out and the number of absentees and provisional wouldn’t change the outcome, are those ballots still counted? Do the answers to these questions vary from state to state?

    Provisionals definitely are not counted in that circumstance. In fact, there are no real rules covering the counting of provisional ballots in the law that created them, which is a major problem. Some jurisdictions make little attempt to count them no matter what the circumstances are.

  185. 185.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:44 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Henry is still not using that leg much, but today he was willing to walk outside to go to the bathroom, rather than standing there waiting for me to pick him up. So that’s progress, for sure! It was a big surgery, so I think he’s doing pretty well.

    It does my heart good to see him so relaxed and peaceful at the moment. The couch is apparently his magic place.

  186. 186.

    NotMax

    March 13, 2018 at 10:44 pm

    @hueyplong

    Wouldn’t necessarily read malicious intent into it. Those counties are larger in acreage and less suburban. It takes more time to physically deliver the ballots to the county seat.

  187. 187.

    Major Major Major Major

    March 13, 2018 at 10:44 pm

    @WaterGirl: Glad to hear it.

  188. 188.

    Mary G

    March 13, 2018 at 10:45 pm

    @dmsilev: Shout out to Cousin Vinny!

  189. 189.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:45 pm

    @dww44: If I’m recalling from when I used to be a political science professor who taught state and local politics, as opposed to what I’ve been doing for the past decade or so, it 1) depends on the state and 2) some do not count them if the number of absentees and/or provisionals would not make a difference. Or, rather, they don’t rush to count them as they know they won’t change the outcome.

    In this case, given how close things are, there will be pressure to count them quickly, efficiently, and accurately.

  190. 190.

    patroclus

    March 13, 2018 at 10:45 pm

    Of course, with this being so close, it won’t be decided tonight and it will be argued about for days. But I’m not going to bed until the Allegheny County absentees come in. Lamb could widen his lead significantly. And Greene County only has 200ish absentees, which won’t be enough to tip it, even if they aren’t counted tonight. Margin at 755.

  191. 191.

    ??‍? Martin

    March 13, 2018 at 10:45 pm

    The biggest takeaway of this is that the GOP has put in more than $500 per competitive vote, and they are still tooth and nail. Id love to see them put $500 per competitive vote here in OC with our 2 million voters. Even the Koch’s don’t have that kind of money.

  192. 192.

    randy khan

    March 13, 2018 at 10:46 pm

    Good news: 755.

    Bad news: No more precincts from Allegheny County.

  193. 193.

    Gretchen

    March 13, 2018 at 10:46 pm

    @Adam: Charlie Pierce has the same worry as you.

  194. 194.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:46 pm

    @WaterGirl: should be mailed, not mated.

  195. 195.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 10:46 pm

    Drumpf held his campaign rally in Moon Township

    Lamb won Moon Township by 6.5%. Trump carried it by 11% in 2016. 17.5 pt shift.

  196. 196.

    BlueDWarrior

    March 13, 2018 at 10:47 pm

    @Mary G: and the margin is so razor thin we might not have an official winner until the end of the month.

    Joy…

  197. 197.

    Sab

    March 13, 2018 at 10:47 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Have I ever mentioned that my grandmother was from Wisconsin? Her uncle was Republican and a Progressive governor (Francis McGovern) Times change.

  198. 198.

    dww44

    March 13, 2018 at 10:47 pm

    @billcoop4: @lgerard:
    Thanks to both of you. I am now better informed and educated about voting. We should have better systems for voting and counting them accurately and transparently.

  199. 199.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:48 pm

    @WaterGirl: Excellent.

  200. 200.

    BlueDWarrior

    March 13, 2018 at 10:49 pm

    @dww44: we should, but this is the consequence of our atomized voting system.

    If only there was a way to enforce federal minimum standards. If only…

  201. 201.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    March 13, 2018 at 10:49 pm

    Allegheny County is complete

    Drumf +4% 2016

    Lamb: +15% Tonight

    19 point shift.

    Bodes well for absentee ballot count.

  202. 202.

    MomSense

    March 13, 2018 at 10:50 pm

    Did anyone else go read about the Independent candidate?

    Self identified fiscal conservative, social liberal, minimize government interference type. Lives outside the district. He’s an energy attorney. Was legal counsel for McCandless who was the Republican state senator who was convicted on corruption charges.

  203. 203.

    NotMax

    March 13, 2018 at 10:51 pm

    @DlueDWarrior

    an official winner until the end of the month

    Proverbially, March goes out like a lamb.

    ;)

  204. 204.

    randy khan

    March 13, 2018 at 10:51 pm

    11 precincts left, all in red counties. Still +755 for Lamb.

  205. 205.

    ??‍? Martin

    March 13, 2018 at 10:51 pm

    Huh, Lamb might have this after all. That would be super good. Probably in recount territory though.

  206. 206.

    Matt McIrvin

    March 13, 2018 at 10:52 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: There are now many states where you don’t need an excuse for mail-in voting, so it could be a rather large fraction of the total (and in Oregon, it’s all mail-in voting). That probably changes the calculus.

    Massachusetts introduced mail-in voting for 2016, and also early voting, which is really mail-in voting at a fixed location. But they also retained their old absentee ballot system, which is distinct. I’m not entirely sure why (maybe just organizational inertia, or maybe it’s that you can get absentee ballots for all elections but the others are only for the statewide elections every two years).

  207. 207.

    WaterGirl

    March 13, 2018 at 10:52 pm

    Goodnight, all.

  208. 208.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 10:54 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: I’m aware. I just remember, from when I lived there, that PA was very restrictive regarding the circumstances under which one could get an absentee ballot. I haven’t lived there since AUG 2014, so the rules may have been changed since then.

  209. 209.

    NotMax

    March 13, 2018 at 10:55 pm

    So when does Dolt 45 tweet that “millions of fraudulent votes” were cast today?

  210. 210.

    MomSense

    March 13, 2018 at 10:56 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I believe you have to be away on Election Day in PA. In Maine absentee functions as an early vote.

  211. 211.

    Matt McIrvin

    March 13, 2018 at 10:56 pm

    @BlueDWarrior: I get paranoid: federal standards would also mean federal fuckery. Kobach types sending ICE agents to every polling place to enforce the integrity of the vote against the secret white vans of illegal immigrants.

  212. 212.

    MomSense

    March 13, 2018 at 10:57 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    Night WaterGirl. Night Henry. And John boy.

  213. 213.

    randy khan

    March 13, 2018 at 10:59 pm

    NY Times has it at +95, with two precincts left. Plus the absentee ballots, of course.

    Fingers crossed.

  214. 214.

    MomSense

    March 13, 2018 at 10:59 pm

    95 votes.

    Gah!

  215. 215.

    BlueDWarrior

    March 13, 2018 at 10:59 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Well, you have to remember this: any system devised by man can be broken by man.

    Also this race is still sitting on the razor’s edge, +80 for Lamb without absentees reported.

  216. 216.

    Matt McIrvin

    March 13, 2018 at 10:59 pm

    Lamb’s lead is down to 95 votes, and Westmoreland is the only county listed at “99%”. Is this where they pull the required votes out of their asses?

    (That’s without the absentees, though.)

  217. 217.

    Victor Matheson

    March 13, 2018 at 10:59 pm

    2 precincts left and Conor’s lead is down to 95 votes.

  218. 218.

    Bupalos

    March 13, 2018 at 10:59 pm

    I think the takeaway here will be that we can win elections just about anywhere in this cycle, but that the general environment isn’t just going to win them for us. Need good candidates, need to push as hard as we can, need to fund it, need to FIGHT. And if we do will will shitstomp these stupid MAGAts.

    Looks like Lamb’s going to Washington and Trump can pretend he’s happy a +16 turned into a -0 all he wants, they are ?!#+ed. I’m going to work my butt off to sent betsy rader (oh14) there too, this result is super encouraging for our race.

  219. 219.

    BlueDWarrior

    March 13, 2018 at 11:01 pm

    @Bupalos: This race isn’t a bellweather, it’s more like a canary in the coal mine.

    And that canary is looking pretty sick and laid out on its back.

  220. 220.

    Adam L Silverman

    March 13, 2018 at 11:02 pm

    @MomSense: That was my recollection.

  221. 221.

    lurker dean

    March 13, 2018 at 11:03 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: i think that’s right, adam. I vaguely remember checking if i could vote absentee in pa just to avoid having to leave the house, and that wasn’t a valid circumstance.

  222. 222.

    BlueDWarrior

    March 13, 2018 at 11:06 pm

    … the Lead just jumped to +847

    Who knows what came in though, people are trying to figure out if it was a chunk of the absentee or if that was the last boxes coming in from Westmoreland.

    Probably the former.

  223. 223.

    mike in dc

    March 13, 2018 at 11:07 pm

    Vote for Lamb just surged a bit. Back out to 800+ vote lead.

  224. 224.

    randy khan

    March 13, 2018 at 11:08 pm

    Allegheny absentee votes came in, pushing the lead to 847. (That’s a gain of 752 from 3,750 ballots, roughly 60-40, which is, as predicted elsewhere, a few points ahead of how he did in the live voting.)

    Still two precincts out from non-absentee votes.

  225. 225.

    Bupalos

    March 13, 2018 at 11:09 pm

    @BlueDWarrior: not sure if that means better or worse. Considering how much of the trump agenda is aimed squarely at this exact area, I think this result is an utter disaster for him. God I hope republicans are wearing the scarlet T for decades.

  226. 226.

    MomSense

    March 13, 2018 at 11:10 pm

    Just to remind everyone, we are rooting for a blue dog to hopefully win this thing by a hair. We have to get used to the idea that a blue wave means running candidates who have a chance of winning and some of them will piss us off once elected.

  227. 227.

    Matt McIrvin

    March 13, 2018 at 11:11 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: It appears that you need to give a reason, but the list of reasons is pretty expansive, including being absent on vacation or on business.

  228. 228.

    patrick II

    March 13, 2018 at 11:12 pm

    I am watching Fox News to see what they have to say and one of the two people on screen passed some serious gas. Maybe its an omen.

  229. 229.

    mike in dc

    March 13, 2018 at 11:13 pm

    @MomSense: So long as we abolish the legislative filibuster next time we control the Senate, and get enough votes in the House to pass our core platform, I don’t care if they go astray on some issues.

  230. 230.

    Matt McIrvin

    March 13, 2018 at 11:15 pm

    @MomSense: Same thing happened after 2006-2008. Some of the Democrats elected were not loyal party-line voters. It comes with the territory. But there’s so little ideological overlap between the parties now that any D win is pretty much guaranteed to be better than the alternative.

  231. 231.

    MomSense

    March 13, 2018 at 11:16 pm

    @mike in dc:

    I agree. I’d rather have Pelosi herding them in Congress.

  232. 232.

    MomSense

    March 13, 2018 at 11:19 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Sadly the overlap is usually on two of the issues I care most about but we have a better shot at moving a Dem on our issues once in office.

  233. 233.

    Omnes Omnibus

    March 13, 2018 at 11:29 pm

    @JCJ: She was not well respected when I worked at the GAB.

  234. 234.

    joel hanes

    March 13, 2018 at 11:39 pm

    Lamb (D) … must decide which district(s) to run for in the fall & collect 1,000 valid signatures before the filing deadline (3/20) in just ONE WEEK.

    See, in my dreams there’s a national or state Dem organization that is aware of things like that and has said “We’re on it.” and can deliver, so that this is an issue but not a problem.

  235. 235.

    joel hanes

    March 13, 2018 at 11:44 pm

    @dww44:

    better systems for voting

    To the extent possible, insist on hand-marked paper ballots (absentee, early voting, etc.).
    Be very suspicious of computer vote entry with no paper record.

  236. 236.

    randy khan

    March 13, 2018 at 11:48 pm

    Nate Cohn’s rough analysis is that Lamb will lose about 200 votes from the two outstanding precincts, which would require a 60-40 margin from the outstanding absentee ballots for Saccone to win. Since Saccone didn’t win the live vote in those counties by that big a margin, it’s a heavy lift. (And since the absentee ballot count is the number sent out, not the number received, it’s an even heavier lift.) He thinks Lamb wins as a result.

    Here’s the Twitter thread: Nate says

    What are the odds that there would be two election results gurus who worked for the NY Times who are both named Nate? (I know, they could tell you.)

  237. 237.

    trnc

    March 13, 2018 at 11:49 pm

    @patrick II: How could you tell the difference from those gasbags?

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