Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Not all heroes wear capes.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

After roe, women are no longer free.

If you’re pissed about Biden’s speech, he was talking about you.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

Come on, man.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

No one could have predicted…

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2018 / PA Special Election Pt. III (& Re-counting?)

PA Special Election Pt. III (& Re-counting?)

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The Repubs are scrambling to explain that the margins are so narrow as to make this election meaningless, and also Conor Lamb is practically a Republican anyways, and besides the district is due to go away come November. So… looking good for Sen. Lamb, so far!

Reader Interactions

149Comments

  2. 2.

    patroclus

    Margin at 755. Amazing Grace!

    9 precincts left in Washington county – due in 20 minutes.

  4. 4.

    dmsilev

    Republicans at the White House are pleased tonight with the narrow margin of PA-18. “This isn’t a blowout — for now, we’ll happily take it,” GOP official says.

    “Not a blowout loss” in a district that Donald Trump won by high double digits? This is Baghdad Bob level spin.

  8. 8.

    patroclus

    1195 absentees from Washington County – will not be counted until tomorrow morning. 200ish absentees from Greene – also not counted til tomorrow. 3000+ Allegheny County absentees due to be counted by midnight,

    CNN projecting a 95 vote lead for Lamb after Washington County votes tonight fully counted.

  9. 9.

    dmsilev

    Washington county is in and…

    Conor Lamb leads by 0.0 percentage points, or 95 votes, over Rick Saccone with 99 percent of precincts fully reporting.

  12. 12.

    Fair Economist

    A significant feature of this election is that with the huge interventions by national Republicans, in support and in money, the election was nationalized as much as, if not more than, a typical midterm. I would expect this swing to carry over into the November election, unlike many of the statehouse races we’ve seen.

  13. 13.

    JaneSays

    Conor Lamb – 109,945 (49.7%)
    Rick Saccone – 109,850 (49.7%)

    It’s down to a 95 vote race with 99% reporting.

  14. 14.

    NotMax

    Geez, threads popping up too rapidly.

    So when does Dolt 45 tweet that “millions of fraudulent votes” were cast today?

  15. 15.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I haven’t heard anyone on MSNBC mention that the tax cut has had the effect of a fart in the wind in this race

  16. 16.

    PsiFighter37

    Crazy. But another district swinging 20 points from 2016. No mattter how this ends up, this is great news for us. Maybe for John McCain too?

  18. 18.

    guachi

    Westmoreland as a whole is voting 42.53% (two party) for Lamb. If he gets that in the approximately 700 votes left he’ll lose by about 10 votes in the initial count.

    10.

  19. 19.

    tobie

    @japa21:

    Both in Westmoreland

    I’ve come to loathe this county in the course of the night. Before tonight it didn’t even register on my radar screen. Go figure.

  22. 22.

    JaneSays

    Requested absentee ballots by county

    Allegheny: 3500
    Westmoreland: 1800
    Greene: 200
    Washington: 1140

    This bodes well for Conor Lamb.

  25. 25.

    JaneSays

    @patroclus: I’m guessing Lamb will need to emerge with a 600-800 vote lead after the Allegheny absentee ballots are reported to hold on and win this thing.

  33. 33.

    guachi

    That was fast counting of absentee. 57.4% for Lamb day of voting and 62.1% from absentee. Nice little boost, I’d say.

  36. 36.

    Mnemosyne

    @eclare:

    Libertarians almost certainly would have voted for Saccone instead, so those votes work to the D’s advantage. Why do you think the Republicans fund Green Party candidates? It’s not because they think those voters would have voted R.

  39. 39.

    MJS

    Westmoreland County Repubs frantically counting on their fingers and toes to determine how many Lamb absentee ballots they need to lose to win this thing.

  41. 41.

    dmsilev

    Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    21s21 seconds ago
    More
    BREAKING: Allegheny Co. absentees break 1,930 to 1,178 for Lamb (D). Lamb now up 847 votes (0.4%) w/ 2 precincts left. Barring a tabulation error somewhere, that should be enough for him to prevail.

  43. 43.

    Gretchen

    Lamb up 847 votes. All the Allegheny votes including absentee are in. Waiting on 2 precincts in Washington Country and 3000 absentees from lean-Republican areas.

  44. 44.

    JaneSays

    Just a ballpark figure, but if there are 3,000 outstanding absentee ballots from the 3 Saccone-friendly counties, he’ll need to win those votes by a nearly 2:1 margin to be able to win. Odds feel good for Lamb right now.

  46. 46.

    guachi

    Saccone probably needs 60% of the remaining vote to win. It’s probably out of reach with the large boost of Allegheny absentee. There were more than the original estimate of 3,750 absentee from Allegheny – about 4,100 and it went 62-38 for Lamb vice 58-42 for the day of vote.

  49. 49.

    Redshift

    @guachi:

    That was fast counting of absentee.

    If it works like it does in my state, they didn’t have to wait until the polls closed to start counting the absentee ballots.

  52. 52.

    Another Scott

    WaPo:

    99.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 111,875 49.9%
    Rick Saccone (R) 111,028 49.5%

    +0.4%, +847

    In the recent HoD races in Virginia, recounts shifted a literal handful of votes. Unless the absentee, provisional, etc., ballots do something unexpected, it looks to me like Conor won.

    Yay!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  53. 53.

    japa21

    I would like to remind everyone of my comment at 8:31 EDT.

    500 plus votes counted, Lamb up 52.5 to 47. We can all go to bed now. It’s in the bag.

    No sweat. Sure the percentage changed a little, but the actual vote separation may well turn out to be the same as it was then.

  55. 55.

    Mnemosyne

    @patroclus:

    Don’t take this the wrong way, because I’m trying to be encouraging, but you Texas Democrats need to get to work NOW and take advantage of this wave.

    Trump won this district by 20+ points a year and a half ago, and it’s already swung to the Democrats.

  57. 57.

    tobie

    @guachi: I thought there were 3700 absentees in Allegheny but the final tally amounted to approx 3100. Were the other 600 for the Libertarian candidate? That seems unlikely. I guess they could have been disqualified ballots.

  58. 58.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    BREAKING: NBC News/Cook Political Report

    Dave Wasserman
    ‏ @Redistrict
    21s22 seconds ago

    Projection: Barring a major tabulation error, Conor Lamb (D) has defeated Rick Saccone (R) in #PA18.

    0 replies 17 retweets 17 likes

  59. 59.

    japa21

    There are a few areas of Westmoreland which were projected to go to Lamb. It would be funny if the two remaining precincts were Lamb precincts.

  61. 61.

    japa21

    @tobie: I believe the original number was requested not necessarily returned. Some people return their absentee ballots at the polling place on election day. Or decide to throw them out and vote in person.

  65. 65.

    BlueDWarrior

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: I’m guessing the term of art to use in this case should be “Apparent Winner”, since it looks like that Saccone would need to over-perform absentees and PA Absentees almost always lean toward the Democrat when compared to day-of voting.

  66. 66.

    patroclus

    @Mnemosyne: I live in Chicago now and have volunteered for Sameena Mustafa to beat Mike Quigley. Quigley’s gonna win, but it’s fun anyway. We’re voting in a week! And we’re gonna wipe Rauner out!!

    (And I met Steve Schwartzberg, the Bernie guy, and liked him a lot too! Not a BernieBro at all and he’s running again in 2020. He talked to me for about 20 minutes about every issue under the sun. A Yale PHD in history).

  67. 67.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @tobie: Kornacki said they’re speculating based on the number of absentee ballots requested, and the number cast is always below that. I’m wondering how many absentee votes are cast by college students

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Rick Santorum has apparently called it for Lamb on CNN

  68. 68.

    tobie

    @MJS: Hate to say it but I think there may be some truth to this. I don’t recall any recent election when the urban precincts reported well before the rural precincts.

  71. 71.

    TS

    @guachi:

    I believe the other three counties will report tomorrow. Some in the morning!

    MSNBC now saying 2 will be counted tonight (the larger ones)

  74. 74.

    Mnemosyne

    @patroclus:

    Ah, okay. I think I was getting your former and current residences mixed up.

    Good luck with Mustafa — she sounds like a great candidate, and with the way this year is going, I wouldn’t count her out just yet.

  75. 75.

    MomSense

    @MJS:

    WTF is this with the small, rural precincts taking longer than the cities? They aren’t using black or white stones FFS.

  76. 76.

    Another Scott

    via LOLGOP – Sahil Kapur:

    Sahil Kapur Verified account @sahilkapur

    #PA18 is a R+11 district

    By contrast…

    Paul Ryan: R+4
    Pete Sessions: R+5
    Devin Nunes: R+8
    Steve King: R+11
    Mark Meadows: R+14

    7:40 PM – 13 Mar 2018

    Yup.

    We need to keep fighting and actualize the wave. We can do this!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  77. 77.

    patroclus

    @Mnemosyne: She used to run a Planned Parenthood office, she’s a comedienne (2nd city grad), has demonstrated for LGBT rights, has been a tenant advocate, she’s a NW grad and looks like Prince Harry’s fiance. I went to a candidate forum on Saturday and she and Schwartzberg are vastly better than the Quigster.

  78. 78.

    BlueDWarrior

    @MomSense: If anything, we need to be arguing for a faster way for rural precincts to get their stuff counted and sent in so that we don’t have 10 hour election nights trying to count things if it’s in any way close.

  80. 80.

    mike in dc

    Those absentee ballots, even in the red counties, may skew more Democratic, due to the efforts of the Lamb campaign.

  82. 82.

    MJS

    @MomSense: They’re populated by fuckwits who think voting for people like Trump is a good idea. You can’t expect them to be able to do much of anything.

  84. 84.

    Cckids

    @Mnemosyne:

    Don’t take this the wrong way, because I’m trying to be encouraging, but you Texas Democrats need to get to work NOW and take advantage of this wave.

    I know not everyone is a fan of the Obama bros, but if you get the chance, listen to their podcasts from TX, recorded live last weekend. The energy & enthusiasm of the crowds were off the charts. Beto O’Roark was on; he’s great, quick thinking, good sense of humor but didn’t get dragged into jokiness- kept on message without sounding stiff. He’s a keeper!
    Also, the put-downs of Ted Cruz were fabulous.
    Good stuff!

  86. 86.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    MSNBC: “Lamb and Saccone are neck and neck in a district Trump won by 20 points 16 months ago.”

    CNN: “Lamb and Saccone are neck and neck in #PA18, which Trump won by 20 points.”

    Fox News: “There should be a special counsel appointed to investigate Hillary Clinton.”

  87. 87.

    different-church-lady

    RNC spokesperson Kayleigh McEnany tells @rickklein that Democratic challenger Conor Lamb “has essentially run as a Republican.”

    So what the heck did Saccone run as?

  89. 89.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Daniel @ Taniel
    There are 3200 absentee ballots in Greene, Washington, & Westmoreland, per redistrict. Saccone will need to win them by 26% to win. That seems… hard: he won the Election Day vote by “only” 12% here.

    those raw numbers make me nervous, but that’s a big percentage to overcome– pretty sure Kornacki said that even in those counties, Dems perform better in absentee votes than in election day votes

    @different-church-lady: Conor Lamb “has essentially run as a Republican.”

    this seems to be the spin, again no mention of the ACA (he’s for it) or the trump-Ryan tax cut (he was against it)

  91. 91.

    BlueDWarrior

    apparently the Washington Cty people are going to be hand-counting the absentees all morning long…

    GOD this is just… just… well it’s something alright, just not sure what yet

  92. 92.

    Comrade Nimrod Humperdink

    How many congressional districts are more democratic than this one again? 119 was it? I do hope Lamb pulls this out, not just for the long list of partisan and patriotic reasons, but also because he seems to be a legit public servant personality. Somebody that will take this shit seriously, and fucking belongs there.

  93. 93.

    BlueDWarrior

    Also Saccone is talking and… he… yeah I can see why he’s the “one Republican” that can fall back into a tie in a district that Trump won by 20 not even 2 years ago.

  96. 96.

    BlueDWarrior

    @Comrade Nimrod Humperdink: I don’t mind having a (semi-)Conservative Democrat in office if they take their job seriously and don’t just use it to be “Fox’s News Special Democrat[sic] Friend”

    Then again I live in a state that produces a lot of moderate white Democrats so I’m just used to it, looking at you Gov. Edwards (no not that one).

  99. 99.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Trump won by 20 % in the Presidential in this district. If you can’t see how a photo finish either way tonight is good for our side, then you have issues. Flame me.

  102. 102.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    but, but…… the tax cut!

    but, but…… coal!

    but,, but…… Muh Wall!

    but, but…… war on Xmas!

  104. 104.

    TS

    3 hours to count 1100 votes!!!!
    This is so weird – and of course Brian doesn’t ask WHY does it take 3 hours to count 1100 votes

  105. 105.

    Comrade Nimrod Humperdink

    @BlueDWarrior: yeah I wasn’t thinking of Evan Bayh or Joe Lieberman when I said that. I had folks like Jon Tester or even Heidi Heidkamp in mind. Actual Democrats, but who have no illusions about who they represent, and take their work seriously.

  106. 106.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Washington County official tells MSNBC they’ll need three hours to get to an official count of their (I think) ~1,100 absentee votes

  107. 107.

    Bobby Thomson

    Lamb is a shoe-in to win the new PA-17. Saccone should win the new PA-14. This is 100% for the national editorial pages.

  110. 110.

    hellslittlestangel

    So, another all-nighter, followed by endless demands for a recount by a dickish Republican? Time to go read highlights from Franken’s memoir.

  111. 111.

    Cheryl Rofer

  113. 113.

    Redshift

    @BlueDWarrior:

    If anything, we need to be arguing for a faster way for rural precincts to get their stuff counted and sent in so that we don’t have 10 hour election nights trying to count things if it’s in any way close.

    I’m all for every area counting with the same efficiency, but I’d caution against demanding the results fast just so election night doesn’t run late. Fast results are always in tension with secure elections and reliable recounts (and vote-by-mail, which produces higher turnout), and I’d much rather have those if I have to choose.

  114. 114.

    themann1086

    @Redshift: so I was the Machine Inspector at my old precinct for 5 years, so I can answer this.

    Because a voter can come to their polling place and void their absentee ballot and vote in person, we cannot open and count the absentee ballots until the polls close. While the machines tabulate totals, we usually open the absentee ballots, count them, and record those numbers on the election return sheet. We would then attach the machine printouts and the Judge of Elections takes them and the machine cartridges to county election board. Our precinct would combine all numbers informally on private sheets that we would give to each party’s reps so they would know the true vote totals. We could usually get everything to county by 930, give or take. Don’t know what the county procedure is, if they push our tabulation as unofficial before checking or what, but that’s how things looked for us.

  116. 116.

    hellslittlestangel

    @TS: WHY does it take 3 hours to count 1100 votes

    The vote-counters need an English-to-Russian interpreter?

  117. 117.

    BlueDWarrior

    @Mnemosyne: Yeah that’s why the More-Liberal-Than-Thou contingent are trying to get her to retire. Since they can’t find anyone in that district that wants to jump under that wheat thresher.

    Personally… you want your party leaders to be functionaries and know how to run their committees and the caucus apparatuses instead of pounding the desk about ideology. I mean… like I know a lot of people who are liberal as I am but I wouldn’t ask them to run a donut shop let alone a Congressional committee.

  119. 119.

    ??‍? Martin

    @TS: they get counted multiple times until they have matching counts and some are done by hand.

  121. 121.

    Another Scott

    AP:

    […]

    According to state election officials, there are two methods for seeking a recount under state law.

    Voters can ask a county board of elections for a recount before all returns are counted, or they can ask the county court for a recount. However, to win a court-ordered recount, there are stiff requirements, including requiring three voters in the same precinct who can attest that error or fraud was committed in the count.

    [ that’s a pretty heavy lift ]

    […]

    For the White House and its Republican allies, a Tuesday loss would represent both a profound embarrassment and major cause for concern in the broader push to defend majorities in the U.S. House and Senate.

    The president has campaigned in the district twice and sent several tweets on Saccone’s behalf. Other recent visitors include the vice president, the president’s eldest son, the president’s daughter and the president’s chief counselor. Outside groups aligned with Republicans have also poured millions of dollars into the contest.

    For Democrats, a win would reverberate nationwide, while even a narrow loss would be viewed as a sign of increased Democratic enthusiasm just as the midterm season begins.

    […]

    After voting Tuesday in Allegheny County, Republican Saccone downplayed the significance of the unusually close race.

    “The Democrats … they’re throwing everything they can at this race,” he said. “There hasn’t been an open seat for a long time.”

    Besides bruising the president, a Lamb defeat also could shake Republican self-assurance that their new tax law can shield them from other political woes.

    […]

    Lamb embraced Democratic orthodoxy on the new GOP tax law, hammering it as a giveaway to corporations at the future expense of Social Security, Medicare and the nation’s fiscal security. And he embraces unions, highlighting Saccone’s anti-labor record at the statehouse, which was a notable deviation from the retiring Murphy’s status as a union-friendly Republican.

    The AFL-CIO counts 87,000 voters from union households — around a fifth of the electorate.

    […]

    Democrats can win almost anywhere if they are smart and address the voters’ needs and wants…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  124. 124.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Mnemosyne: oh hell, I wasn’t even thinking of a primary. I just want these genii, in the party and in the press, who are so very concerned about Pelosi to tell me 1) who takes her place as Dem leader 2) do any of them really think Rs won’t still use her as a boogeywoman, and they won’t toss in Maxine Waters and Hillary Clinton as well. I think it was Luther Strange whose ads were all about Obama, barely six months ago, wasn’t it?
    ETA: Also, my hate-watch BriWi smugly talking about Beltway Manhattan types learning about pickup trucks and farm issue… Hey, fuckwit fabulist, those pickup truck drivers want you to take “entitlement reform” and cram it up Tom Brokaw’s ass

  125. 125.

    BlueDWarrior

    @Redshift: And you know what, that’s a fair point.

    Accuracy in the end is more important than speed when it’s something as critical as determining who sits in elected office. I just wish there was a more effective way to show which vote has been counted where, and what ETA on the next report is.

    But perhaps that has more to do with reporting rules than counting mechanisms…

  126. 126.

    KithKanan

    @TS: Could be innocuous. I don’t suspect my California county of mucking about with elections, but (until we finally replace it before our June primary this year) we’ve been using a ballot scanner purchased in 2000, and in the 2016 election the feeder on it broke and our elections staff had to feed 139,685 ballots by hand.

  128. 128.

    Another Scott

    @Bobby Thomson: Saccone apparently doesn’t know how to win a race facing any serious competition. Plus, he apparently doesn’t know how to fund-raise.

    I don’t think he’s a shoe-in anywhere, myself. But I guess we’ll see.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  129. 129.

    ??‍? Martin

    @BlueDWarrior: Voters there are like voters here – seniority makes up for many sins. Part of the reason that district is so liberal is because Pelosi can carry that to a national platform. A more liberal Rep wouldn’t have nearly so much of a voice for quite some time.

  130. 130.

    BlueDWarrior

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Democrats should NEVER be in the business of determining their leadership based on how triggered conservatives act whenever they do something. The only concern should be “can you effectively manage and operate your assigned post” and “can you at least stay somewhere within the general space we’ve carved out on the ideological spectrum when you argue for/against policy; and barring that, make a cogent argument to your position that wont piss off our regular voters”?

  131. 131.

    patrick II

    3 hours to count 1100 votes!!!!

    That wasn’t the weirdest part. They started opening the envelopes at 8:00 and had just finished (at about 11:30 )

  132. 132.

    Feebog

    I do not understand why they can’t count the absentee ballots as soon as the polls close.

  135. 135.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Feebog: Fuck off, the 80 y/o women who show up are doing the best that they can.. If you want faster, volunteer.

  137. 137.

    ??‍? Martin

    Wow. Stephen Hawking has passed away. I can’t put into words just how amazing it is he was able to produce as much as he did given his condition. I never expected him to live this long. Just an amazing individual.

  140. 140.

    marcopolo

    Whelp, I have to believe there will be a recount but the last big slug of votes (the 2 outstanding precincts and absentees from Westmoreland) just came in and Lamb is leading by just over 550. Saccone ain’t gonna make that up with the remaining absentees from Washington & Green counties.

    Barring skulduggery I think the Dem just picked up the win.

    PS the official line is Saccone would need to win 70% of the remaining 1400 absentees to catch up. Not gonna happen.

  142. 142.

    Gretchen

    Obama bros podcast: Pod Save America – that’s the one that Beto O’Rourke was on. Obama speechwriter and a couple of other guys from the Obama White House talk about current events. Pod Saves the World deals with foreign affairs. Lovett or Leave It features Obama speechwriter Jon Lovett and is always live, has a panel, and is more humorous than the other two. All are really good. I find it encouraging that they are all doing live events and the audiences sound crazy-enthusiastic, and they’re doing things like voter registration at the events. They did a European tour, and even got enthusiastic audiences in London and Stockholm.

  143. 143.

    Gretchen

    @BlueDWarrior: Yes! This! People who want to ditch Nancy Pelosi thinking that Republicans wouldn’t demonize the person who replaces her are dreaming.

  146. 146.

    Cckids

    @Davebo: I get them from the podcasts section on my iPhone. Or their website is Crooked.com. They have several; the Texas ones were on Pod Save America and Lovett or Leave It.

    ETA: or what Gretchen said at 142.

  147. 147.

    Feebog

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    You can fuck off my friend. I was a poll.clerk for ten years in SoCAl. I can tell you that in California at least, Absentees are counted as soon as the polls close. The only absentees that are not are those that are dropped at the polling place. There is at least a one to two hour lag between poll closing and delivery of the ballots to a central location. Plenty of time to count the absentees. Several of these countries were not even going to count the absentees tonight.

  148. 148.

    mskitty

    @BlueDWarrior: NO! NONONONONONO! Paper ballots no matter if it takes DAYS to count! Faster is NOT necessarily better! Faster is always more fkable!

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