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You are here: Home / Politics / America / No Plan Survives Contact With The Enemy: Military Strikes And The Strategic Complications At The Heart Of The Syrian Problem Set

No Plan Survives Contact With The Enemy: Military Strikes And The Strategic Complications At The Heart Of The Syrian Problem Set

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This morning the President warned Russia and its Syrian and Iranian clients that we had the nice, new missiles all ready to go as a response to both the chemical attack on Eastern Ghouta, as well as Russia’s attempts to warn the US and its potential allies – from both the existing US led coalition that is Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve or from a new, smaller coalition of the US, Britain, and France designed to just punish the Assad government for the chemical attacks – off of responding.

Always a good choice to avoid the pre-owned missiles. Sometimes they’re owned by little old ladies who only use them to get to and from church on Sunday. But sometimes they’re used by folks that just abuse them, don’t give them regular maintenance, and run up the mileage on them…

There are already reports of the Syrian military relocating its personnel and equipment to the Russian bases in Syria to protect them.

This makes anything more than a demonstration strike, which is what was done last year, much, much more dangerous and problematic. The reason for this is that in order to actually reduce Syria’s capability to make war, and specifically try to deter the future use of chemical weapons, means that the US and its partners would have to target Syrian personnel and equipment that are now within Russian lines, for lack of a better term. This is one of the major strategic complications as it would create a de facto reality that the US and its partners have just attacked Russian military sites in order to get at the Syrian assets we want to degrade, attrit, and reduce.

Another part of this strategic complication is that the Russian navy has both sortied its Mediterranean fleet to get it out of port where these ships would be easy targets and has conducted a live fire exercise.

The lone Russian air craft carrier is back in port in Russia – it is actually in dry dock for the better part of the next four years or so undergoing a refit. As a result this eleven vessel fleet has limited capability.

More worrisome is that the Russian’s have begun electronically jamming US intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance (ISR) drones.

The Russian military has deployed jamming tactics against US drones that have affected the US military’s ability to operate in the region, NBC News reports.

US officials told NBC News that the Russian military has been jamming smaller US drones. The jamming is focused on the GPS systems of drones, which can result in things like the operators not knowing where the drone currently is, to more extreme results like crashes.

Department of Defense officials speaking to NBC News did not confirm if they lost any of the drones to crashes as a result of the jamming, but one official did say that the jamming is having an operational impact on military operations in Syria.

The drones that have been targeted are smaller surveillance drones, and not the larger ones with strike capability like the MQ-1 Predator or the MQ-9 Reaper, according to NBC News. US military drones are encrypted and are supposed to have defenses against electronic counter measures, suggesting that Russian capabilities are more advanced than previously thought.

Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, then the commanding general for US Army Europe, said in in 2016 that he has seen Russian “electronic warfare capability at a tactical level that we absolutely don’t have.”

Russia’s ally in Syria, Iran, also reportedly has hacking capabilities. In 2011 it claimed that it hacked into a US RQ-170 Sentinel and forced it to land after it gained access to its GPS.

Russian jamming of our ISR drones is intended to communicate to US and allied military commanders that they will not have a friendly electronic environment if they go with an application of strategic air strikes. This complicates not only targeting, but any potential search and rescue operations that might need to be conducted if something went wrong.

There is another set of strategic complications I want to focus on, which is where Russia has moved its military assets over the past 6 months or so. Russia has begun building out its Western Military District. This is the Russian version of a geographic combatant command that borders the Baltics, Scandinavia, Ukraine, and Belarus.

This includes ramping up exercises and mobilizations under cover of wildfire season preparedness:

Here’s how Russia’s military is deployed in their military districts:

(Map 1: Russian Military Units)

And here’s how NATO and Russia’s military stack up right now:

(Figure 1: NATO Assets Vs. Russian Assets as of 2017)

 

(Figure 2: NATO and Russian Deployments as of 2016)

This second strategic complication should be of great concern. The Russian military, despite being much smaller than the US’s and much degraded by Russian economic realities from the vaunted Soviet military, has been deployed and positioned to threaten the US’s NATO and other allies in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. Sweden and Finland have been moving towards a war footing, while our Baltic allies have also increased their readiness. Moreover, the Russians have been sniffing around the undersea transatlantic cables that connect the US and Europe for communications purposes. And we now know that Russia’s cyberwarfare capabilities means they don’t have to actually do anything military to retaliate. Russia could just take down parts or all of the US power grid. Russia has also been able to both penetrate for manipulation and penetrate to take down emergency communication systems, as well as planting false stories about natural disasters and terrorist attacks via social media penetration. Imagine what happens should Putin decide to retaliate by turning parts of the US power grid off and interfering with 911 and emergency communications systems, while at the same time spreading disinformation made to look like actual news reports or official municipal, state, and/or Federal responses to the disaster he’s created.

Either a military response against US forces in Syria and Iraq, our NATO allies and partners in Europe, and/or a cyberwarfare response within the US are all potential Russian responses to a US led coalition military response to the chemical weapons attack in Eastern Ghouta last week. These are the strategic complications that the US and its potential allies face in developing their plans and sequels to them. These are the strategic complications faced by the President’s senior military, national security, and foreign policy advisors.

The final strategic complication is the one we started with, the one the President created for himself this morning. By threatening Russian and its Syrian and Iranian proxies with the nice, new, and smart missiles he’s tweeted himself into a corner. He either has to actually do something in response to the chemical weapons attack in Eastern Ghouta or he will have destroyed any credibility on this type of matter in the future, as well as weakened America’s strategic communication capabilities. Regardless of the strategic complications on the ground in Syria, in Europe, or within the cyber domain, the President has boxed himself in. The President has finally tweeted himself into trouble that he can’t tweet himself out of. Either he orders a response and risks an escalation or he backs down and loses what little face he had.

Stay frosty!

Open thread.

Reader Interactions

118Comments

  1. 1.

    cain

    I wonder if these Trump’ers have any idea how fucked we are thanks to this moron. I’m wondering who he is going to blame for this catastrophe?

  2. 2.

    Omnes Omnibus

    He either has to actually do something in response to the chemical weapons attack in Eastern Ghouta or he will have destroyed any credibility on this type of matter in the future, as well as weakened America’s strategic communication capabilities. Regardless of the strategic complications on the ground in Syria, in Europe, or within the cyber domain, the President has boxed himself in. The President has finally tweeted himself into trouble that he can’t tweet himself out of. Either he orders a response and risks an escalation or he backs down and loses what little face he had.

    It was inevitable.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    My apologies. Apparently WP ate several portions of the post. So I have just updated it with the missing information. Largely about what was going on in the Russian Western Military District. I apologize for any inconvenience.

  9. 9.

    efgoldman

    And here we are with the moron in charge unable to understand the most basic things about Syria, the ME in general, or Russia.
    I still think he can’t find Syria on a map, even with coaching.

  11. 11.

    Yutsano

    Adam: a friend is about to be deployed to Germany. Would that be to fill positions for troops going into ‘Poland or just a normal military rotation? He’s cavalry if that helps.

  13. 13.

    Another Scott

    He either has to actually do something in response to the chemical weapons attack in Eastern Ghouta or he will have destroyed any credibility on this type of matter in the future, as well as weakened America’s strategic communication capabilities.

    Just about everything Donnie has done since he took that escalator ride that fateful day after JEB! announced indicates that he is continuing to execute his plan.

    And that plan is to weaken America because he thinks it will make him rich.

    He said as much in 2006:

    Two years before the housing market collapsed in 2008 and millions of Americans lost their homes, Donald Trump said he was hoping for a crash.

    “I sort of hope that happens because then people like me would go in and buy,” Trump said in a 2006 audiobook from Trump University, answering a question about “gloomy predictions that the real estate market is heading for a spectacular crash.”

    Remembering that makes predicting what he will do, or won’t do, much less of a mystery.

    Grrr…

    If he were serious about “punishing” Assad and Russia, he wouldn’t have sent that tweet. He’s not.

    I hope that May and Macron and Merkel and all the rest of the important players in NATO understand this and don’t end up thinking that some sort of Libya II is what is needed and that it will work…

    Fingers crossed. :-(

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  14. 14.

    Jackie

    I’m guessing Trump was sending a “heads-up” warning to Assad and Putin to clear the decks.

  16. 16.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Yutsano: I’d need to know his rank, his MOS, and where he’s going. Remember that we have an Army Service Component Command (ASCC), US Army Europe (USAREUR), which is headquartered/garrisoned at Clay Kaserne in Weisbaden. USAREUR has several subordinate commands at Vilsack, Grafenwoer, (I think there’s still a unit at) Baumholder, Hohenfels, etc. There is also US European Command, which is headquartered/garrisoned in Stuttgart. We have a single armor brigade on rotation in Poland right now. So while that’s a possibility, it is far more likely he is headed to EUCOM, USAREUR, or one of the subordinate elements of USAREUR.

    Full disclosure: I served, under temporary assigned control, as the Cultural Advisor to US Army Europe from DEC 2013 through JUN 2014. I’d take an assignment in Wiesbaden any day!

  17. 17.

    donnah

    But Trump is on record countless times as saying he would not disclose military plans to attack anyone, and decried Obama for this. So was his “warning” to Putin about our shiny new missiles actually a note passed to his buddy so they could move targets to Russian safe spots?

    I correspond with a guy in Finland, a lifelong resident. He’s seen what Russia military posturing is like, and right now he’s angry and very concerned that Russian troops are building along their borders. My friend loathes Trump and worries about the States. It seems like the entire globe is on the brink of a seismic event.

  18. 18.

    Corner Stone

    Russian jamming of our ISR drones is intended to communicate to US and allied military commanders that they will not have a friendly electronic environment if they go with an application of strategic air strikes. This complicates not only targeting, but any potential search and rescue operations that might need to be conducted if something went wrong.

    Can’t we SLAM these jammers? Fuck Putin.

  21. 21.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    I half wonder if Trump is rattling the sabre against Russia partially because of the continuing Russia scandal he is embroiled in. If he strikes Syrian assets he can say, “See? I’m not a puppet! I attacked a Russian client and stood up to Putin and Assad!”

    What I don’t get is why Putin is willing to risk WW3. He’s a madman gambling with the lives of billions and that pissed me right the fuck off. What gives Putin the right risk the planet over his petty monetary and geopolitical ambitions?

  22. 22.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Yutsano: He is going somewhere in Germany. Subject to Army needs. When he gets actual orders, I may be able to offer more info. This is out of Adam’s element.

  23. 23.

    Corner Stone

    @Adam L Silverman: BRING BRING: Hello?
    “Oh, Hi. Listen. We’re about to fuck up all your shit in Syria that looks at our shit.”
    “Oh….”
    “Yeah. You have 5 minutes to remove all living people. Thanks for your time.”

  24. 24.

    efgoldman

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?:

    I half wonder if Trump is rattling the sabre against Russia partially because of the continuing Russia scandal

    Doubt it. That would involve “planning” and “strategy” and “connect the dots”, none which he’s capable of or does.

  25. 25.

    tobie

    Adam, regarding Russia’s deployment in the Western Military District, are you suggesting Russia is trying to flex its muscle with the Baltic states (Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia) and Belarus again? Does it look like Putin’s preparing for territorial expansion in the Baltic region like he did with parts of Ukraine?

  27. 27.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @Corner Stone:
    Reminds me of this:

    “My fellow Americans, I’m pleased to tell you today that I’ve signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes.”

  29. 29.

    Cheryl Rofer

    I pretty much agree with you in the top post, Adam, except for this.

    He either has to actually do something in response to the chemical weapons attack in Eastern Ghouta or he will have destroyed any credibility on this type of matter in the future, as well as weakened America’s strategic communication capabilities. Regardless of the strategic complications on the ground in Syria, in Europe, or within the cyber domain, the President has boxed himself in. The President has finally tweeted himself into trouble that he can’t tweet himself out of. Either he orders a response and risks an escalation or he backs down and loses what little face he had.

    There’s an ongoing argument about “face” and “credibility” among people who study such things. A lot of data indicates that nations do what they’re gonna do, and their calculation is of what the other side’s military capabilities actually are. “Credibility” as measured by previous actions is a small part, if any at all, of the calculation.

    There’s a gut feel to “face” and “credibility” that has a lot to do with putting military actions into a smaller setting, like a bar fight. That’s about as useful as reading the national debt in the same way as household debt. They’re just not comparable. So guys in a bar fight will draw a red line and then laugh at the guy if he doesn’t step over it and the other guy if he doesn’t punch the first guy. That’s not a good way to do international relations.

    It is true that the vicarious feelings of newsmen (I use the last three letters advisedly) lead to reporting these things as bar fights, and there is some tendency in others to go with that sort of “credibility.” But when the two sides have nuclear weapons, it is a requirement for escalation without end. Clausewitz pointed out this logic and called it “total war,” which he pointed out is foolish and dangerous.

    So does Trump “have to” do something? There’s a lot of thinking in Washington that could lead to that. John Bolton is ready for a war. Trump doesn’t like to look “weak,” but we don’t know how he’s interpreting that. His tweet certainly was the wrong thing to do because it does push toward war. My guess is that if he does anything, it will be a meaningless strike like last year’s. As Adam pointed out, the Syrians are preparing to take minimum damage.

  30. 30.

    Adam L Silverman

    @tobie: That’s the question. It is clear he’s posturing. What is unclear is whether that is all it is or whether he’s just positioning personnel and material and waiting for the right time. Like say if the US is further distracted by events in the Levant. The Swedes, the Finns, the Latvians, Estonians, Lithuanians, and Poles aren’t taking any chances.

  31. 31.

    p.a.

    Atrios has pointed out- thus far correctly- that as bad as Trump et. al. are, W was worse: his Iraq Splendid Little War cost (we may never get an accurate count) hundreds of thousands of lives.
    Trump: “hold my beer.”
    An intellectual and emotional toddler with his finger on the trigger of the US military.

  33. 33.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cheryl Rofer: I’m familiar with that literature. When the people writing it actually spend some time at the pointy end, I’ll take it far more seriously.

  36. 36.

    cain

    @The Moar You Know:

    Trump will back down. He is weak.

    Yeah, but Trump’rs will still say he’s the most manly man ever. I wonder if they even know they are doing it. Their hate for liberals is so far gone that even a weak ass leader who burns shit to the ground is better than any democrat.

  38. 38.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @efgoldman:
    I had an honors World History who was a Republican (he was 30 at the time and it was 2010). He mentioned it one time and said that the Soviets even called afterwards to confirm whether he was serious or not. Reagan’s “humor” was appalling.

  39. 39.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cheryl Rofer: Given I’ve been assigned to strategic level commands, as well as to the Office of the Secretary of Defense on a senior level assignment, as a senior advisor and subject matter expert (GS 15 step 5), as well as served as Professor of National Security and Strategy at a Senior Leader College (war college) for four years (also GS 15 step 5), I’m well aware that tactical experience is not the same as strategic education. I’m also aware that far too many people writing on this stuff have no actual experiential learning in what they’re writing about. I know a lot about non-proliferation in a theoretical sense from reading scholarly articles, governmental reports, think tank reports, books, etc. But you notice I defer to you when the topic comes up here? The reason for it is I have no experiential learning in it, as in I’ve never actually worked on this problem set. I have knowledge, you have expertise. That’s my point.

  41. 41.

    Viva BrisVegas

    @tobie:

    Doubtful. There hasn’t been the prerequisite level of agitprop and political ratfuckery in the Baltics as yet.

    Putin would first need to motivate Baltic Russian speakers into serious demonstrations of dissatisfaction with their home country. He won’t move into a Nato country without at least a figleaf.

    There are much softer targets like Belarus available, and in the meantime Poland and Hungary are looking for reasons to disengage with the West.

  44. 44.

    Mnemosyne

    I certainly am relieved that the Republicans gave the keys to our computer systems to the Russians in exchange for Trump’s electoral college victory. How could they possibly know that the Russians would use it against the US as soon as our countries came into conflict?

  45. 45.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Viva BrisVegas: Actually that’s not quite true:

  46. 46.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Cheryl Rofer: Being likely to be at the pointy end doesn’t sharpen one’s mind. Or I never put any thought into what the Cold War could have been. Sincerely, Ex-Army Officer assigned to the border.

  49. 49.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Some Kremlin media outlets now portraying Latvia as a “manufactured” nation made up of territories that rightfully belong to Russia. Ominously similar to the Russian media messaging adopted towards Ukraine in the build-up to the 2014 invasion

    Sounds ominously similar to rhetoric Hitler used to describe nations like Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia in the run-up to WW2. Is history repeating itself only with ICBMs?

  50. 50.

    Mike in NC

    None of this shit is new. I went to briefings 20 years ago that dealt with Russian and Chinese penetration of our government computer systems.

  60. 60.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Adam L Silverman: It’s too late at night for me to pull out my copy of Clausewitz and look up “total war.” The difficulty with “credibility” is that there is no end to it. Or another way to state that is that it’s judgment calls all the way down.

    So Trump has to prove his credibility by some sort of strike, according to those rules. Putin or Assad then has to prove his credibility. And then another round to Trump, and so on. How does this end? That’s basically what Clausewitz called the logic of total war. He pointed out that the destruction of total war makes it logical to stop somewhere long before you get to total war.

    I would argue that Assad was trying to prove credibility with his chemical strike at Ghouta in August 2013. That was roughly five years of credibility, I guess, because this latest strike was very close to that one. Of course, it’s not just about credibility. Assad is trying to force people out of that area. But they are being much more robust, for all his weapons outweigh theirs, than he would prefer.

    Likewise, we have credibility in that we have a nuclear arsenal that could flatten Assad and his nearby holdings in no time. But we do not use that arsenal. Is that a lack of will? Does Putin see it that way? I don’t know the answers to those questions, nor do I think anyone in Washington or Moscow or Damascus does. So how does that factor into the credibility equation?

    I would argue that the best index of credibility would be fitting a response into an overall strategy. But that ain’t gonna happen, because Trump has no overall strategy. That’s partly a Trump problem, but working out an overall Syria strategy has been very difficult.

    @Omnes Omnibus: It sharpens one’s mind in a particular way, but more than that is needed to decide on an appropriate response to Assad’s latest chemical attack.

  63. 63.

    cain

    @Mnemosyne:

    I certainly am relieved that the Republicans gave the keys to our computer systems to the Russians in exchange for Trump’s electoral college victory. How could they possibly know that the Russians would use it against the US as soon as our countries came into conflict?

    I was looking for the sarcasm tag somewhere in this post. :D

  64. 64.

    Steve on St. Simons Island

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: I was being facetious, dude. I have pied a couple of her sock puppet accounts like BiP and Washburn, but the posts on her Mnemosyne account are good.

  66. 66.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I would argue that the best index of credibility would be fitting a response into an overall strategy. But that ain’t gonna happen, because Trump has no overall strategy. That’s partly a Trump problem, but working out an overall Syria strategy has been very difficult.

    No argument here at all.

    I think we’re actually arguing past each other. And I’m also not interesting in arguing about long dead Karl at this hour either.

  69. 69.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @efgoldman:
    If that is ArgleBargle ABC aka Steve the Gun nut, then that is truly sad. They need to get a life outside trolling top 10,000 lefty blogs.

  70. 70.

    Steve on St. Simons Island

    @efgoldman: had to take the wife to Mayo in Jacksonville; now we are chilling for a couple of days at our family place down here. If it helps, we are only an hour from DUVAL!

  71. 71.

    jonas

    Now, now. I’m sure Trump’s highly experienced and level-headed national security team of Dr. Strangelove and Gen. Jack D. Ripper will handle this with the kind of perspicaciousness and seriousness we’ve come to expect from this administration.

  77. 77.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @NotMax:
    It’s not a good look when someone has to use that phrase to describe themselves.
    Mental stability is a given for most people and few people who are actual geniuses need to tell others of their intelligence; it speaks for itself.

    The “stable” part is lot like wanting a reward for basic human decency.

  83. 83.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @Omnes Omnibus:
    I thought the part about the “staying still in one place” was a reference to the RBG/Washburn troll changing nyms. And I have a grip.

  85. 85.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @Steve on St. Simons Island:

    I have that luxury I guess. I tend to remove those people from my life when I get the chance when it happens.

    Are you on vacation, since Omnes so nicely suggested I ask you directly.

  89. 89.

    Viva BrisVegas

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I meant that there hasn’t been enough ratfuckery by the Russians to destabilise the Baltics yet. What the Russians have produced so far has mostly been in vain.

    With Belarus, I meant that if Putin wants to impress his populace with a greater Russia he only needs to formalise the status of Belarus as part of Russia.

    Also, if he wants to screw with Nato, Hungary and Poland are shaping up as much better partners.

  90. 90.

    NotMax

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    Peripatetic jackals.

    There is a folk saying for house plant owners to only water a cactus when it rains in Phoenix.

    Time to update it to suggest only watering a cactus when Steve is in ATL.

    ;)

  92. 92.

    cain

    @Adam L Silverman:

    What does Baron Victor Von Doom have to say about this? I’m sure he has enough fire power to deal with the Russians and possibly the Avengers if they come calling as well.

  93. 93.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @Viva BrisVegas:

    With Belarus, I meant that if Putin wants to impress his populace with a greater Russia he only needs to formalise the status of Belarus as part of Russia.

    Wow, how impressive. Adding another poor, kletocratic state to a larger, poor kletocratic state.

    (Not knocking you btw)

  95. 95.

    Aleta

    @Adam L Silverman: No need to defer; the information is in the responses and ideas back and forth. Credentials and experience can help one person know how to clarify something for the benefit of the rest, but that’s not because of rank–it happens by offering details and exchanging counter ideas, imo. (I always get a feeling that the most knowledgeable smart people here are probably reading, thinking and silent.)

  98. 98.

    danielx

    One of my best friend’s daughter headed off that way today….

    ETA: I probably didn’t help him much by talking about antiship missiles. Shit.

  99. 99.

    jl

    ” The President has finally tweeted himself into trouble that he can’t tweet himself out of. Either he orders a response and risks an escalation or he backs down and loses what little face he had.”

    So, Trump is smart, not like that dumb inadequate blah previous president. When Trump draws a red line, he flings gallons of red paint all over the place, then trips over the paint can and somehow (who can describe how?) it lands upside down over his head.

    Wow, I can sure see the difference. Let’s hope Trump is kicked out of office before another catastrophic ME war, or WWIII breaks out.

  105. 105.

    SRW1

    The historical figure Trump reminds me most of with his bravado talk is Wilhelm II.

    Hopefully, Syria isn’t Serbia.

  106. 106.

    PJ

    @Steve on St. Simons Island: Internet tradition requires that I be paid in Balloon-Juice Coin (BJs, for short), which, as you are no doubt aware, is the most esteemed of cryptocurrencies. (Every comment generates .0000001 of a BJ, so keep ’em coming, folks.)

  107. 107.

    J R in WV

    You guys are worrying about Steve changing his nym as he flys all around the country.

    Someone signed up with the nym JR… ignoring that I was already (for f’ing yreas) J R in WV. What am I supposed to do if JR starts traveling like Steve in ATL/LAX/ etc. etc.???

    At least JR doesn’t seem to be really weird or anything, a regular poster kind of guy.

    Going back to bed now… g’night.

  108. 108.

    Bjacques

    @cain: Latveria are the odds-on favorite in the upcoming Eurovision Song Contest. You heard it here first.

    All this talk of “Wag The Dog.” Where’s the love for “Canadian Bacon?”

  109. 109.

    Frankensteinbeck

    Adam and Cheryl, as deeply as I respect you, I think you’re falling into a trap of being too professional. Trump has not painted himself into any corners. He’s just being his random idiot self. He has no credibility anyway. He will not negotiate or weigh any of the concerns you have ever listed. None of this is meaningful to him in any way, it will play no part in his decision making, and it bores and irritates him when advisors try to apply these serious considerations. The decision will be made emotionally, not intellectually, from the position of a vain, spiteful, totally ignorant, lazy, and fantastically cowardly toddler. Most likely he will do nothing at all, like with all his other threats, but I don’t rule out Putin suggesting he bomb something militarily meaningless to give Putin cover to escalate. You know, like last time.

  110. 110.

    What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?

    @Corner Stone: seriously with our military budget these tech things should not be a problem. We should be generations ahead and un-jammable if we were actually getting anywhere near our money’s worth.

  112. 112.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Frankensteinbeck: I don’t disagree with you at all. You are describing a conundrum that I’ve tried to balance since Trump became president. Everything has to be considered at two levels: what is the customary sort of analysis, and what is Trump likely to do?

    The first is what Adam and I are discussing here. It’s also the kind of thing that Mattis and Bolton are doing, although Bolton’s analysis is way toward the hawkish end of the spectrum, Mattis’s closer to Adam’s, although he’s probably taking into consideration some of the things I’ve said too.

    I try not to frame my analysis in terms of “this is what Trump will do,” but rather in terms of options and possibilities. If I slip into the former way of expressing myself, it’s because it’s so prevalent on the internet in a competition to be the guy who got it right. If you look at the (actual military, real life as opposed to Trump’s gut) options and possibilities, that sets you up to understand better what will come next. Trump may be acting from his gut, but Putin and certainly Assad, less so. Putin can be kind of a gut guy at times. You’re also set up to see what will go wrong with the gut decision.

    I do think that what Mattis tells him makes some small impression. Overall, I agree that it’s mostly impulsive and what makes Trump feel good. But that’s not an interesting analysis: Was the Mar-a-Lago chocolate ice cream up to standard? Was he able to get two scoops and everyone else around the table only one? What is the status of the Russia investigation? How worried is he about polonium in his tea? And so on. It’s not ultimately knowable, although some patterns are beginning to occur.

    So yes, those of us who do what Adam and I do will continue to do it. We’re aware of the Trump factor. But it’s not helpful analytically, and the rest of the world operates more like Adam and I do.

  113. 113.

    Cheryl Rofer

    And we have a morning tweet:

    Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all! In any event, the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS. Where is our “Thank you America?”

    According to media reports, the military freaked out with yesterday’s tweets. So The Orange One is listening to Mattis. A little.

  117. 117.

    bluefoot

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?: I still have a poster (it’s in storage) with a pic of Reagan and “We will begin bombing in five minutes” at the bottom. God, I hated what an irresponsible f*cker that guy was. Before Nov 2016 I was so happy that sort of world was behind us…

  118. 118.

    JDM

    Look, last time there was a gas attack (Assad was blamed and may be responsible but I remember some doubt about that) Trump did just what he’s done this time: warn the Russians (and via them the Syrians) so the Syrians had time to move their equipment. Then Trump did an expensive but ineffective cruise missile strike; Syria was using the airport later that evening.

    This time we see Trump has again warned the Syrians and Russians and given the Syrians time to move their equipment again. So in a day or three or so we’ll likely see another expensive, ineffective, strike. Just like last year.

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