Democrats can win everywhere! Arizona 8 is +13 R Cook PVI but…..
The special election for an Arizona House seat is in a statistical dead heat in the final week of the race, according to a poll released on Monday.
A poll from Emerson College found physician Hiral Tipirneni (D) narrowly leading with 46 percent, compared to former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R), who is at 45 percent — well within the poll’s margin of error.
Let’s raise some more money for Tipirneni.
oatler.
“Alex, what is Three Dog Night?”
Doug!
@oatler.:
Almost did “It’s A Long Way to Tipirneni”.
Gin & Tonic
@Doug!: I’m glad you didn’t, because that would have been unforgivable.
Gin & Tonic
Anyway, people say “statistical dead heat” as if that means something extra. As opposed to what, a probabilistic dead heat? A topological dead heat?
Yutsano
This is gonna need a massive GOTV push. But oh man if this one flips…the Republicans are in MASSIVE trouble.
kindness
This morning the WaPo (I think it was the WaPo) was saying Lesko was 8 points up. I would love the Democratic candidate to win mind you.
Kay
This would be nice:
All gone :)
Nethead Jay
@Yutsano: That was pretty much my thought reading this too :)
Baud
@Gin & Tonic: A dry dead heat?
Baud
@Kay: Maybe punishing Blue States with higher taxes wasn’t such a genius move?
efgoldman
@Yutsano:
Looks like a mirror image of 2010.
Once the momentum gets rolling…..
r€nato
This is the House district formerly held by ultra-creepy Christianist asshole Trent Franks. It was custom gerrymandered to be very safe for someone like Debbie Lesko, who is well-known as a state legislator in this area and checks all the right-wing boxes that should make her a lock. Tipirneni, OTOH, is a newcomer. I don’t think she’s ever run for office before.
If Dr. Tipirneni – and her “un-American”-sounding name – wins or even comes close to winning… that is very, very bad news indeed for Republicunts and indicative of the magnitude of the blue tsunami that may swamp them all this fall. It can’t be emphasized too strongly how safe this district ought to be for Republicans. It’s very white, very middle to upper middle class, somewhat heavy LDS in certain areas. Democrats just don’t win in the west Valley. I haven’t looked at the legislative district map, but I’d be surprised if there’s a single D in the state legislature from this area.
Yutsano
@efgoldman: I’m looking at the Senate now. It’s entirely possible not only could all the Democrats keep their seats we could gain at least three more in Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee. Hell considering how unpopular Tailgunner Ted is in Texas even that might go.
marduk
Holy crap if this vote is even near that close this is insane. That’s the Sun City district, the absolute wingnut armpit of the universe.
efgoldman
@Baud:
They were always going to stay blue. It’s places like the white suburbs in NJ and PA that will push the house left.
Doug!
@kindness:
If the Dems lose by 8, that’s a great result.
Amir Khalid
@Gin & Tonic:
Sounds punchier than “more or less tied”.
Yarrow
@Yutsano: Ted Cruz is even unpopular with a lot of Republicans in Texas. Not all of them and maybe not enough, but really, no one likes Ted Cruz. His inherent unlikability doesn’t help him in a tougher election year, especially against a charismatic, good looking guy like Beto O’Rourke who is working hard all across the state.
Baud
@marduk:
Sadly, the wingnut universe has many arms.
germy
A good cause:
https://www.delgadoforcongress.com
I’d like to see him defeat Faso.
Amir Khalid
@Yarrow:
Remember that photo of Cruz’s own kids recoiling from his embrace?
efgoldman
@Baud:
And many more pits
Kay
@Baud:
Right. That and they think Trump is horrible, as a person. Can’t argue with that.
Yarrow
@Amir Khalid: I certainly do. Also, the “family interview” where the older daughter told on him about her classmates having video of Ted doing something silly at a parents’ day at school like dressing up in makeup and feather boas or something. The look in her eye was, “Don’t push me, Dad. I’ve got blackmail material and it’s widely disseminated to make sure it doesn’t get destroyed.” She meant business.
lowtechcyclist
@Gin & Tonic:
It doesn’t mean something extra, it means something a little less. It means that while the poll didn’t show the two candidates tied, the difference between the two candidates’ support is small enough that it could be the result of sampling error.
Yarrow
@Amir Khalid: I certainly do. Also, the “family interview” where the older daughter told on him about her classmates having video of Ted doing something silly at a parents’ day at school like dressing up in makeup and feather boas or something. The look in her eye was, “Don’t push me, Dad. I’ve got blackmail material and it’s widely disseminated to make sure it doesn’t get destroyed.” She meant business.
lowtechcyclist
Never had a comment go to moderation before on account of discussing sampling error. (No big deal, just one of those minor ‘wtf’ moments.)
ETA: Anyhow, I’ve tossed a few shekels in the pot for Tipernini. I want to see the the Republican candidates driven before us, and hear the lamentations of their donors.
Barbara
@Kay: It was intended to hurt New Jersey (along with Massachusetts, California and New York). It also disproportionately hurts affluent suburbs in mostly purple states like Virginia and Minnesota. We might be debating the effects of forcing affluent people to share the wealth with people living in poorer counties, but instead, we all know that it was intended to and did take money from the well to do and give it to the really, really rich while leaving the less well off with maybe just a smidge more spare change.
EBT
@Gin & Tonic: A physical dead heat with two runners right at the line.
Just One More Canuck
the ladies are insane there
Kelly
@oatler.: “Alex, who is Hoyt Axton?”
West of the Rockies
@Gin & Tonic:
Ecumenical?
West of the Rockies
@Gin & Tonic:
Ecumenical?
SiubhanDuinne
@Kay:
I can just hear you saying that in your “mom” voice ?
guachi
Cook has AZ-8 as “Safe Republican” for the Fall election. It would be a major shock if it went to the Democrats and we’d probably see Cook shift many seats towards the Democrats. Even if the Republicans win if the margin is close I’d expect movement by Cook and others towards the Democrats.
By my own calculations, Cook recently (April 6) tipped the House to an expected Democratic win. Though it’s large based on high numbers of Toss Up/Lean R/Likely R seats (77 total) and having enough of them being won by Democrats.
Mandalay
Chris Christie’s legacy: Poll suggests GOP lawmakers in New Jersey could be wiped out in November
Fair Economist
@Doug!:
Right, it would mean in a special election with no notable features we’d be at the level of flipping an R+9 seat, when we only need to flip R+4 on average to take the House.
rikyrah
A new filing reveals the three clients Michael Cohen gave legal advice between 2017 and 2018:
1. President Trump
2. Elliott Broidy (you know, the guy who paid $1.6 million to a Playboy model who became pregnant during an affair)
3. A mystery person… https://t.co/G5L6a5ytcj pic.twitter.com/po8mccNEgV
— New York Daily News (@NYDailyNews) April 16, 2018
Yarrow
@rikyrah: Posted this in the previous thread:
Who is the mysterious third client? Don Jr.?
rikyrah
Top Republican Official Says Trump Won Wisconsin Because of Voter ID Law
The law blocked thousands of Wisconsinites from voting in 2016, predominantly in Democratic-leaning areas.
ARI BERMAN
APR. 16, 2018 12:18 PM
rikyrah
@Yarrow:
I dunno who the third client is?
Very interesting for the speculation. Is there a reason why the client can’t be revealed?
Yarrow
@rikyrah:
Hence the speculation. Who doesn’t want to be identified and why?
Yarrow
LOLOLOLOLOLOL!
Barbara
@Yarrow: The identity of a client isn’t privileged. Nor are billing records and lots of other things. I can see why, however, the court would honor a wish not to be identified by a third party whose involvement appears to be extraneous to the matters under investigation.
Nethead Jay
@lowtechcyclist: Excellent adaptation of the conan creed there :-D
Barbara
@Yarrow: Oh yeah, now there’s a really bad idea.
ETA: Given that the first two clients are people who basically used Cohen to pay off their extramarital dalliance partners, I can only surmise that the third client might be in the same boat, so of course, does not want to be identified.
TenguPhule
@Baud:
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
TenguPhule
@rikyrah: This is my shocked face. There was gambling taking place on the premises?
Yarrow
@Barbara: I would agree that if a client wishes not to be identified in an unrelated case regarding their lawyer that it would be fair to honor their wishes unless and until the client’s involvement somehow became part of the case. In Cohen’s case I’d guess this third client isn’t unrelated, that he, and I’d guess it’s a he, is tied to Russia, the Republican party and/or Trump. So the name may come out at some point.
Bobby Thomson
Cohen appearing before Judge Wood at 2. Hope he packed a toothbrush.
Bobby Thomson
@Yarrow: never has the fool for a client axiom been more apt.
efgoldman
@Bobby Thomson:
What could/would he do that would cause an immediate contempt citation?
ETA: I doubt he’d spit in her eye
lowtechcyclist
@Nethead Jay:
Thanks!
gvg
If the 3rd client really was not related to the Trump matters at all I could see anyone in that position not wanting their name to come out just because we are all going to assume he/she is related to the Trump corruption and reporters will keep digging hoping to get a scoop. Tarred with the same brush. On the other hand how likely does it seem that a client of Michael Cohen is reputable? At best, they aren’t good at picking a good lawyer.
I suspect it’s going to come out anyway.
It’s also possible that the investigators might go along with it so they can dig deeper without too many reporters joggling their elbows so to speak. Not sure how likely that is.
Yarrow
Stormy Daniels has arrived at the courthouse. Apparently Elliot Spitzer is there as well.
Yutsano
@Yarrow:
DUN…
DUN…
DUNNNNNNN!!!!
Yarrow
Waynski
Spitzer’s there? I guess he wants to remind everyone that what’s good for the Spitzer is good for the Trumpster.
Yarrow
Re: Cohen’s third client:
jl
In the era of Trumpster rule, foreign policy probably falls under C.R.E.A.M., so maybe not off topic.
Over weekend I read news that UK and France did in fact lead on Syria strike, and also lead in diplomatic response to probable Russian assassination attempt in UK.
Apparently Trump OK with them being perceived as leaders in diplomatic world, but angrily lost his shit when he found out that US response could look like in the lead and bigger. Weird, I thought Trump wanted all the credit for everything.
Now I read in Josh Marshall’s twitter, that Trump is under some delusion that Bolton is getting all the media credit (something I have not seen at all) for the Syrian strike and he is upset at Bolton.
Trump the nutcase has to go along with Trump the malicious and Trump the incompetent, and Trump the ignorant.
Winston Smith
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/985891964238356481
Not saying that it can’t be done, but it’s going to be tough.
TenguPhule
@efgoldman:
I only agree with you on this because he’s physically incapable of being able to spit upwards successfully.
TenguPhule
@efgoldman:
Tell the judge: “You’re not the boss of me!”
Amir Khalid
@Yarrow:
He will most certainly have a fool for a client.
Ridnik Chrome
Elliot Spitzer, that old kibitzer…
Yarrow
Posted in next thread, but since it has been discussed here:
trollhattan
@jl:
Bolton pissing off Donny would be all kinds of awesome.
efgoldman
@trollhattan:
He eventually pisses off everybody, so why not?
Some Dude
Here is an article of the two candidates funding sources:
http://blogforarizona.net/cd-8-special-election-update/