There’s been a lot of chatter over the past day or so about President Moon of the ROK stating that the President should get the Nobel Peace Prize. This isn’t exactly what President Moon said:
Blue House confirmed this straight translation into English: “President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. The only thing we need is peace.”
— Elise Hu (@elisewho) April 30, 2018
Here it is in Korean:
노벨상은 도널드 트럼프 미 대통령이 받아야 하고 우리는 평화만 가져오면 된다
And again, he was responding to a letter from Kim Dae Jung's wife, which said Moon deserves a Nobel for the successful summit— Elise Hu (@elisewho) April 30, 2018
Leaving potential Nobel Peace prizes aside, what the President’s approach to foreign policy in general, and dealing with both the ROK and the DPRK in specific, has made the US superfluous to the process. I’ve read the joint statement from Kim and Moon a couple of times. While the language is nice and flowery and ambiguous, I think that section 2 and parts of section 3 are going to be what cause the US headaches. These sections read to me as the pretext for Kim to demand or require that 1) the Joint Multinational US-ROK annual military exercises stop and 2) the US drawdown its 28K personnel in the ROK as they will no longer be needed. This is in line with how Kim and the DPRK understands denuclearization, which always means getting the US off the peninsula, not that the DPRK necessarily gives up its nuclear weapons program, or, now, the fruits of its program.
I also think that aside from the meeting between Kim and the President, the US is now superfluous to the reality on the ground. And that Kim is manipulating the President into a diplomatic and strategic trap where Kim and the DPRK looks like the good guys here and the President, and by extension the US, look unreasonable and become the bad guys. This would also make Xi and the PRC, as well as Putin – another Kim patron – very, very happy.
Part of the problem is I don’t think the President or anyone on his team really seem to understand where President Moon is coming from. Moon is from the center-left/left of center party in the ROK that seeks an opening with the DPRK. His parents were also refugees from the DPRK to the ROK, so reaching a rapprochement that allows for families to be reunited is very important for him.
SKorean Pres Moon Jae-in's approval rating is at 86 percent, up 12 points since before the summit
88% of SoKorean respondents support the Panmunjom deal w/North Korea (link in Korean) https://t.co/38jf3Ae6gD
— Elise Hu (@elisewho) April 30, 2018
Moon clearly wants to reach a new normal on the Korean Peninsula. Kim, in the DPRK, wants what he’s always wanted:
- the removal of the US, specifically of the US military, from the peninsula
- the reunification of the peninsula
- under Kim family control
- preservation of the Kim family regime
When you hear or read Kim or other DPRK officials calling for denuclearization, part of what they mean is for the US to remove the nuclear umbrella that it provides to Japan and the ROK, if not the removal of the US military from the Korean Peninsula. Not giving up the DPRK’s nuclear deterrent. Sue Mi Terry, formerly a senior Korea analyst at the CIA, provides an explanation of what denuclearization means to Kim:
She said it’s significant that Kim spoke not of removing nuclear weapons from North Korea, but rather of the “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula,” as a whole. That formulation by the Kim government is “not new,” Terry told me, and has been accompanied in the past with demands for measures to preserve the regime’s security such as the signing of a peace treaty to finally end the Korean War, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea, and the end of the U.S.-South Korean military alliance, which in turn would terminate the protection the United States extends to South Korea through its nuclear weapons. Hence, talk of a nuclear-free peninsula despite the fact that South Korea doesn’t have nuclear weapons. (In this respect, Kim was right to assert that he was simply echoing the policies of his father, who was also quoted by Chinese media as committing to the denuclearization of the peninsula even as he persisted in developing the nation’s nuclear-weapons arsenal.)
What Kim is talking about is not what the President or anyone on his team is talking about when they talk about denuclearization. Before US-DPRK negotiations have ever begun we have a fundamental mismatch of what the key term means. This will make negotiating more difficult if there is no agreement to what the key terms mean and key issues actually are. There is little doubt that President Moon knows exactly what Kim means when he talks about denuclearization. Moreover, President Moon is no doubt very clear about the President not wanting to keep US military personnel in the ROK. The President, per his longstanding belief dating back to 1987, sees this as a waste of money and another example of America’s allies and partners taking advantage of it and playing the US for suckers.
In one heated exchange between the two men before February’s Winter Olympics in South Korea, Kelly strongly — and successfully — dissuaded Trump from ordering the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula, according to two officials.
That the President wants the US troops out, as the “or else” portion of the Trump Doctrine, because he doesn’t believe the US is being treated fairly by the ROK in terms of trade, is not exactly a state secret.
President Donald Trump on Wednesday appeared to threaten to withdraw US troops from South Korea if he can’t get a better trade deal with Seoul.In a fundraising speech in Missouri, Trump told donors South Korea had become rich but that American politicians never negotiated better deals, according to audio obtained by The Washington Post and confirmed to CNN by an attendee.
“We have a very big trade deficit with them, and we protect them,” Trump said. “We lose money on trade, and we lose money on the military.”
“We have right now 32,000 soldiers on the border between North and South Korea. Let’s see what happens,” Trump said.
The President went on to argue, “Our allies care about themselves. They don’t care about us.”
On Friday, South Korean Finance Minister, Kim Dong-yeon, appeared to hit back at Trump’s remarks.
“We don’t think it’s ideal to link an economic issue with such an issue [the withdrawal of US troops],” said Kim, while speaking on South Korean TBS radio.
“The South Korean government, with national interest of South Korea as priority, will consider striking a balance in the national economy and among multiple industries,” said Kim.
“We have many issues to take into consideration dealing with the United States as well.”
As the ROK’s finance minister’s response indicates, the South Koreans know exactly where they stand with the President. So it should not be surprising that President Moon is going to pursue the ROK’s interests and get the best deal he can get with Kim if there is a deal to be had regardless of what happens between the DPRK and the US. Moon has essentially recognized that there are two separate, though somewhat related, diplomatic tracks going on. The first he controls and is bilaterally between the ROK and the DPRK. The second involves the US, is sort of multilateral and at the same time sort of bilateral, and may or may not be anything more than a show.
From the perspective of the DPRK’s Kim, he’s already gotten what he wants from the US: agreement to the meeting. This elevates Kim and the DPRK from pariah status to worthy of direct negotiations with the US and the President. While the President and his team don’t seem to realize this, or if they do, acknowledge it publicly, this is a key concession from the US to the DPRK. And it was provided without Kim having to do much of anything.
Stay frosty!
Open thread.
TenguPhule
So essentially we’re boned on Korea because Trump is a moron and his supporters are even bigger morons.
raven
Our troops there have never been anything but a trip wire, there is no way they hold up to a full sale NK invasion. Unass that mothefucker.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: Pretty much.
Adam L Silverman
@raven: But then we’ll have a strategic kimchi gap!
Corner Stone
The fiddle, she is us.
Bobby Thomson
The whole point is to create a situation where Trump can say Kim broke an agreement, justifying the war Bolton wants. He doesn’t give a shit whether arms control types or diplomats buy it. It’s all for domestic consumption.
The Moar You Know
I spent a fair amount of time in South Korea and one thing Americans just don’t get is that the South Koreans don’t want the North “defeated” as the North is part of their nation too, they just want their fucking country back, not split in half.
This is how it ends: we are booted out entirely and we are not going to be allowed back, and if the US responds in the expected manner, you’ll end up with a Korean very hostile to US interests overall and a VERY happy China. I also frankly expect Pyongyang ends up as the capital, although the only sway the Kim Family Mafia will hold over the country is with some degree of control over the North’s military, which will not last. There are single corporations in the South that could-flat-out buy the North in entirety.
ETA: kidding about Pyongyang. But not the rest.
jonas
This elevates Kim and the DPRK from pariah status to worthy of direct negotiations with the US and the President. While the President and his team don’t seem to realize this, or if they do, acknowledge it publicly, this is a key concession from the US to the DPRK.
Kim got direct negotiations with the US w/o having complied — in a verifiable way — with a single UN resolution. The Iranians have to be looking at this right now and going wtf?
Adam L Silverman
@jonas: Exactly.
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
That’s kimchi, you foreign devil.
TenguPhule
@Bobby Thomson:
I don’t think Kim is the one who’s going to break it down.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: Sorry. Been a weird day.
Brachiator
Reality and nuance don’t matter. The GOP leadership and Trump’s supporters believe the totally unverifiable article of faith that Trump has changed the world for the better simply because of the Unbearable Whiteness of his Being. All he has to do is talk tough and the world trembles before him.
@jonas:
Makes total sense. Well said.
JustRuss
I really wish our country wasn’t being led by idiots and warmongers right now. Guess I picked the wrong year to give up sniffing glue.
gene108
I am tired of all this winning. I can’t take it anymore.
Dmbeaster
Even worse, voiding the Iran deal on the eve of discussions with North Korea destroys US leverage in the negotiation, and is an unimaginable gift to Kim Jung-Un. North Korea can easily walk citing legitimate concerns that the US cannot be trusted concerning a deal, and have world opinion in its favor on this point. That such an outcome is even possible demonstrates the massive clusterfvck of Trump’s diplomatic and negotiating acumen.
kindness
Man the Obama Hatred/Jealousy with the Trumpies is strong. They are good little Germans, eh?
re – the whole Trump should get a Nobel thing.
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
You’re in Florida. Trump is in the Whitehouse. Exactly how much weirder could things get?
TenguPhule
@Dmbeaster:
I would just like to take a moment to emphasize how this was not normal two years ago.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: You have no idea.
gene108
Trump basically wants to go back to an 18th century mercantile economy. And yet the bankers, finance folks, etc. all line-up behind him, because he cuts them slack in the short-run.
rikyrah
I completely understand this. Do you think that there’s anyone in Dolt45’s Administration that understands this?
jonas
@Bobby Thomson: My take is that Trump is actually so vainglorious that he sees himself as some kind of hero peacemaker on the peninsula who’s going to make the world’s biggest deal to get rid of Kim’s nukes. What he doesn’t seem to have gamed out, probably because it requires explanations of things that can’t be summarized in two words and bullet pointed with bright colors, is what plan B is. Where do we go after it becomes clear during the summit that, as Adam points out, what we mean by “denuclearization” and what the DPRK has in mind are quite different things. Does he just let it all slide in order to claim victory? Or does he storm out of the room and start tweeting about turning Pyongyang into “the world’s biggest sheet of glass?”
MattF
This is all far, far, far beyond Trump’s comprehension. Probably the most important factor for Trump is whatever Putin favors. A close second is the opportunity to bring US troops home, or, possibly, to move US troops to the Middle East. Trump will take credit for that, regardless of what the Japanese or other US allies in Asia may think or want.
jonas
@rikyrah: People at State do of course, but Trump purposefully ignores them.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: It was being telegraphed with Senator Cotton’s letter to the Iranians.
sherparick
@Adam L Silverman: double WTF as I expect Iran is the war Trump, Bolton, and Bibi want. The only country probably completely freaked out about this is Japan and I would expect, Hiroshima or no Hiroshima, they are dusting off their plans for nukes right now. If they have no American umbrella anymore, the only way they can maintain their independence vis-a-vis China and PRK is to make their own nukes.
Adam L Silverman
@rikyrah: The senior people at State that do are gone. And no one has been lined up as replacements. The more junior folks at State probably do. I expect there are still people at Langley and other parts of the Intel Community, as well as within DOD that understand it.
Adam L Silverman
@jonas: Most likely this:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/how-trump-learned-to-be-a-predator
The Other Chuck
Remember when the Republicans were screeching about “meeting without preconditions”? Specifically about North Korea?
Oh fuck it, it’s just more lies, projection, and hypocrisy from the GOP. Remember when the sun fucking rose this morning?
gene108
@TenguPhule:
Or 10 years ago*, 20 years ago, or 30 years ago, etc. The strong point of American foreign policy has been relative consistency in abiding by agreements.
*Yeah, Bush, Jr. screwed the pooch, with regards to the DPRK, by not abiding by the terms the Clinton Administration negotiated (along with invading Iraq, and torture), but he wasn’t threatening NATO allies or the ROK, and generally looked to advance U.S. interests with regards to countries like China and Russia.
Omnes Omnibus
You can’t have a fucking agreement if you don’t even agree on the meaning of words. Fucking fuck!
Adam L Silverman
@MattF: It won’t be moving troops to the Middle East. We just quietly shut down the Combined Joint Force Land Component Command (C/JFLCC) in Iraq a few days ago. Only three weeks after 10th Mountain relieved 1st Armor. We haven’t finished off ISIS. They’ve not been reduced. Their capacity and capability to wage war and conduct terrorism has not been reduced. And they’re regrouping and reconstituting in northern Iraq and parts of Syria.
cmorenc
@TenguPhule:
That assessment is too generous to Trump. Rather, it’s because Trump is an arrogant, lazy moron, deluded into thinking he can accomplish things that no previous US President since 1950 could do, through sheer personal blustering and bullying, which will sweep aside all the details that frustrated his predecessors because they were too timid to bulldoze right over them.
trollhattan
Speaking of Trump, International Man of Mastery.
Having a larf here.
rikyrah
Democratic senators scrutinize Koch brothers’ ‘infiltration’ of Trump team
Senators say Koch-linked figures are driving environmental policy, as résumés obtained by the Guardian and Documented show ties between staffers and network
Democratic senators are demanding information about what they call the Koch brothers’ “infiltration” of the Trump administration, charging that Koch-linked personnel have secured key federal jobs and are determining US environmental and public health policy.
The senators – including Sheldon Whitehouse, Edward Markey, Catherine Cortez Masto, Tom Udall, Ron Wyden and Elizabeth Warren – sent letters to eight government bodies and the White House requesting “information related to efforts by Charles and David Koch, Koch Industries, and the numerous groups they fund to influence decisions”.
The Koch network includes advocacy groups and thinktanks funded by the billionaire brothers that tend to advance a stridently conservative agenda, including promoting energy extraction within the US and the sloughing off of regulations.
Résumés obtained through public records requests by the Guardian and Documented, a government watchdog group, show the close links between high-ranking federal staffers and the Koch network.
gene108
@rikyrah:
As racist as Trump as, I doubt he thinks stupid little “yellows” are going to be able to match his mighty German-Aryan blood, with regards to negotiating a treaty.
We tend to discount the role racism and the belief in white superiority has played in U.S. foreign policy blunders. Sure we couch it terms of “civilization” and “culture”, but ultimately it’s white men thinking other non-white countries are dumber than us.
And Trump has that arrogance in spades.
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus:
Actually you can, but it becomes a horrible clusterfuck after its signed and nobody agrees on the terms.
Bex
Army Times headline: Army Investigates 101st Airborne Chaplains Accused of Dismantling On-Post Programs for Jewish Soldiers. Sorry can’t link, but the story raises some serious concerns.
MattF
Just in case someone spies a hint of rationality in Trumpworld (via TPM):
Yes, you read that correctly. Trump demands that Obama apologize for colluding with Russia.
trollhattan
@Bex:
Et tu, Army? I thought this was more in the Air Force’s wheelhouse?
Mike in NC
The moron Possum Queen is bloviating about Eye-ran to the White House Press Corpse. If only she used the word “nucular” like Dubya did. This is the same person who showed up in Korea and didn’t bother to pack a coat along with her pearl necklace.
trollhattan
@MattF:
Doesn’t Obama have to apologize for doing 9/11 first? Priorities, people.
TenguPhule
@MattF:
Some editor at the Onion is crying.
trollhattan
@Mike in NC:
When will we be rid of this woman? Guessing Trump keeps her around despite her lack of hotness and blondeness because she “really pisses off liberals.”
Did you know she’s only 35? Early onset rancidity is a thing.
Adam L Silverman
@Bex: @trollhattan: I’ve seen it. I’ve pulsed some of my Chaplaincy connections. Apparently this has moved to a formal inquiry – a 15-6. My contacts didn’t have a lot of info as none are at FT Campbell, but none were amused. This appears to be problem with that group of chaplains, starting with the chaplain in charge.
Adam L Silverman
@MattF: Bless his heart!
Raven Onthill
Why would anyone in the ROK want to be unified with the DPRK? This seems to me a triumph of nationalism over common sense. Who wants to starve and all the while make obeisance to a man who has murdered members of his own family? Has the ROK gone crazy?
trollhattan
@Adam L Silverman:
Good to hear there’s a meaningful response. This sort of behavior should never occur in today’s military.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: I am hoping that this is stupid people being stupid not the first glimpse of a wider problem.
Frankensteinbeck
What I want to know is whether Kim is willing to have peace without reunification. Reunification will not happen. Both sides want it, but only under terms the other side finds ‘we will fight to the death’ unacceptable. If we can remove our troops and be confident neither North Korea will start any wars, I am in favor of it. South Korea must be putting this question front and center of their own strategies.
Adam L Silverman
@Raven Onthill: I don’t think they want unification, or if they do, they don’t want it any time soon. What they want is a thaw. The ability for families to reunite and visit and reconnect. An end to the stress of living in the shadow of a war that has never actually ended.
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
I thought that was well put
Bobby Thomson
@jonas: I think you know.
MattF
@Raven Onthill: And there’s also the North Korean famine, which happened only 25 years ago, but which no one mentions any more.
El Cruzado
@Brachiator: It worked for Ronald Reagan!
(Narrator voice: Not actually how it went down…).
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Right now, after hearing from my contacts, I don’t get the impression it is any more than something isolated. Or somewhat isolated. Like everything else, I have a selective sample: I’ve worked with and/or taught around a dozen chaplains over the years. The ones I’ve dealt with, all Christian chaplains of various denominations, have all been open minded, well meaning, and would never have countenanced something like this. This includes my former student the self declared snake handler and my former team mate who was convinced that his understanding of Lutheranism was a type of Judaism and who couldn’t do a non-denominational and ecumenical prayer to save his life. We’ll see what the 15-6 turns up, but I can’t see how the Chief of Chaplains is pleased about this or would allow it to spread.
Roger Moore
@Dmbeaster:
World opinion? Hell, they’d have the facts on their side at that point.
Adam L Silverman
@Frankensteinbeck: If he gets survival for himself and his regime, out from under the sanctions, and out of international pariah status, Kim’ll take it.
Raven Onthill
@Adam L Silverman: “The ability for families to reunite and visit and reconnect.”
But Kim is never going to agree to that without huge concessions. So why is this even being considered? Is this nuclear blackmail?
Mary G
@sherparick: Japan is the first thing I thought of, too. Are they even being consulted about this nonsense? Or just hung out to dry and turn to Russia or China in defense?
ruemara
@TenguPhule: Don’t fucking test the universe
@Adam L Silverman: Shit like that in NYC is why I don’t respect anyone just because they have money. And it always surprises my betters when I make my disdain for them obvious. A large portion of them are just scum who found a con that worked. NY hates Trump and has since I was a kid. I don’t get what folks ever saw in him.
Adam L Silverman
@Raven Onthill: I don’t think so. Moon obviously thinks he’s got an opening here. Whether he really knows what he can get, I don’t know.
But her emails!!!
I’m concerned about the US being relegated to a backseat or reduced to irrelevance on the world stage by Trump and the Republican’s stupidity. Given the rise of other powers, this was probably inevitable and this mechanism although not optimal is probably better than being forced from the position militarily. The problem is that Republicans, including their base are going to eventually realize they’ve been sidelined and demand some sort of violent attempt to regain our position and make other nations respect their authority. That worries me.
Cheryl from Maryland
@Bex: Here’s the link: https://www.armytimes.com/news/2018/04/27/army-investigates-101st-airborne-chaplains-accused-of-dismantling-on-post-programs-for-jewish-soldiers/, FYI, Mikey Weinstein is already on the case.
trollhattan
@But her emails!!!:
Trump is helping improve China’s future as surely as Bush II helped Iran’s. It’s driving me crazy, doubly so because of his braying insistence he’s doing exactly the opposite. “Only Trump can control China!”
TenguPhule
Today’s Shitty Human Award goes to…..
Bex
@Cheryl from Maryland: Thanks for posting the link. Glad Mikey Weinstein is involved.
Mary G
@Bex: Wow, the lay people who did the Jewish services weren’t even being paid, and they fired them because they dared to want to celebrate Passover on the day of Passover, which happened to be the same day as Good Friday this year. Plus when asked why none of the “Christian” chaplains had ever attended the Jewish services, they were told “it would compromise his religion to attend.”
I hate that Twitler has empowered these bigots to come out into the open, and hope the people responsible get dishonorable discharges, or whatever the proper term might be for their rank and position’s worst punishment.
trollhattan
@Cheryl from Maryland:
Just wow. This is a tell.
The Gospel according to Mike Pence.
ETA Mary G–Jinx!
Gravenstone
How exactly does one “remove” a nuclear umbrella when one owns multiple ICBMs (land and sea launched) that can reach pretty much the entire globe? It’s not like we’re going to pinky swear that we won’t drop one on Kim’s head if he reneges on any promises.
Adam L Silverman
@Mary G: @trollhattan: The Chief of Chaplains is not going to let that slide.
Adam L Silverman
This seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle!
Kay
I always wondered what cable contributors make:
That’s a lot of money! How much time do you think it represents? 8 hours or so?
Also- Mr. Transparency filed an extension on his ’17 returns so no one will see them until after the election. Very Trumpist, that.
Frankensteinbeck
@Mary G:
Trump is a racist stuck in the 80s. He assumes the Japanese are parasites and economic competitors. He may be unaware we protect them at all, and certainly has no desire to do it. However, he does think it’s the US’s job to teach the bad guys a lesson, and between that and his impressive laziness and mythic cowardice, inertia will probably keep happening.
@Adam L Silverman:
I’m surprised more than the tiniest number of people came back for more. Usually that gets a desire to never have to deal with an asshole like that again, which is a big reason for settling.
Mary G
@trollhattan: Lol! A dead heat.
MattF
@Mary G: In fact, devout Christians I know were inspired by Good Friday and the start of Passover being on the same day.
Adam L Silverman
But of course!
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
The call is coming from inside of the White House!
Adam L Silverman
They found Misfud. Sort of. Based on the reporting, my guess is he’s either hold up in Saudi or Putin scarfed him up when he came to Moscow as part of the Saudi delegation.
Adam L Silverman
@Frankensteinbeck: Wouldn’t be my option. Of course I’d have likely just told him to shut the fuck up, pay the money, and walk out. Then I’d put a lien on his property and start the rest of the legal process to get my money plus damages.
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman: Dead or imprisoned?
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@TenguPhule: God that’s f-d up and awful. Thanks, war on drugs.
Skepticat
@cmorenc:
Spot on.
Shalimar
@Dmbeaster: Not just Trump. Republicans have been pushing for a withdrawal from the Iran deal since before it was even signed. They would invalidate it regardless of who their leader was. Trump just adds an extra later of incoherence to the mix.
Adam L Silverman
Mary G
Wildly off topic, but the picture in this tweet of a packed house of March for Our Lives kids and Moms Demand Action volunteers for a state legislature committee meeting is giving me life. Somewhere Wayne LaPierre has given himself laryngitis screaming that no one is following the program on gun control.
Adam L Silverman
Kay
@Adam L Silverman:
I think there’s not enough coverage of the similarities between the Russian Right and the US Right. They’re really closely aligned on a lot of things. I think for a lot of the public “Russia” calls up this 1980’s view- Ronald Reagan ranting and such., vaguely “the enemy”. It isn’t intuitive that US conservatives and Russian conservatives could be cooperating or in agreement on “conservatism” when maybe it should be – they’re not that far apart.
This could have come from a US Right winger. It’s all about “the sanctity of the family” and how government can’t interfere if husband’s want to punish their wives and children. It’s really very much like what the religious Right was saying in the 1980’s, especially the conflation of “wives and children” as one group and then “men” as a different group in a position of authority over the former.
I think Americans will have to grapple with the modern reality of Russia before they can begin to comprehend the US Right’s alliance with Russia. It’s a Right wing country.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: Depends where he is. In Saudi he’s probably alive and in hiding. In Russia could be either prison or dead.
lollipopguild
@ruemara: What they saw in him was an “important” person who was willing to say all of the Racist and Sexist things that they all believe. They see him as an “honest” person who is saying and doing things they want done. He hates all of the people that they hate and does so in a public manner.
Adam L Silverman
@Kay: Yep.
trollhattan
@Adam L Silverman:
Wouldn’t the Situation Room be shielded from a cell signal? Maybe too many spy movies for me, but still….
eemom
@Adam L Silverman:
Are you fucking seriously suggesting that Kim would ever in a million years allow that? Let’s not lose sight of the fact that NK is basically Nazi Germany for its own people. And one of the key ways the regime maintains its stranglehold on the population is keeping outside information — never mind outside contact — out of the reach of anybody but the Kim family.
And any talk of “reunification” is a sick, sad joke.
Yutsano
@But her emails!!!: It’s going to be really hard for the US to be relegated too far back off the world stage any time soon. Main reason: reserve currency. There isn’t any other currency being proposed that will take over the supremacy of the dollar as the world standard for exchange currency. The Euro isn’t printed enough. The yen has a really poor backing right now. The Chinese would love the renminbi to take this over but without structural changes by the CCP that ain’t happening either. Now we can be bypassed on certain foreign powers agreements (and that might not be such a negative) but at least economically we’ll still be important on the world stage for awhile.
Kay
@Adam L Silverman:
I had no idea. I mean, I wasn’t as narrow as thinking they were still communist or socialist- I knew that was no longer true- but the alliance with US social conservatism isn’t well understood, I don’t think, in the general public.
It makes sense that social conservatism is essential to it- it’s always been such a huge force on the US Right- they’ll trade just about anything to keep the traditional social rankings. Maybe the Russian Right didn’t need “experts” in how to sway the US Right- they knew it because they’re the same. They knew they could demonize women’s rights and Black Lives Matter and all the rest they exploited for fear, not because they know US conservatives, but because they know Putin supporters.
Weaselone
@Yutsano: Basket of currencies. Also, what do you think will happen when Trump starts hinting at defaulting on Sovereign debt unless other countries agree to take a haircut?
catclub
@Gravenstone: The US forces as tripwire at the DMZ are the guarantee that the umbrella is in place.
As Adam kind of implied: We would easily sacrifice/ignore Seoul if Seattle is no longer targeted.
Tokyokie
Good lord, I don’t see how the world survives a full Trumpenführer presidency.
catclub
@Yutsano: @Weaselone:
Really? I would think that the Eurozone has plenty of economic weight to be the reserve currency – put oil trading in Euros and Ahmad’s your uncle.
catclub
@Kay: The religious conservatives under communism – either JP II from Poland, or the Russian Orthodox Church,
are EXTRA conservative in lots of ways.
gvg
My slight understanding was that the North was so militarized and had so many soldiers, that if the US wasn’t there, the North would invade, loot the south, and rule both, until of course both countries were poor again. If the South is seriously negotiating with him, are they now ready to fight off the North? I guess they have better arms but so close together and such a large population, I don’t see how any fight is safe for civilians. I also can’t see Kim as being raised to care. Maybe they don’t think they have any choice when we have become nutty.
I can understand them wanting peace as separate countries, but reunification could only happen if Kim could be bribed to go away. Maybe South just plans to have elaborate negotiations to stall until Trump is gone?
Peter
@Adam L Silverman: Better than a mine shaft gap. Also, too, I make my own kimchi. It’s like being a prepper, but for dinner.
catclub
watch your back, Kelly
John Revolta
@Kay: This.
In particular, a lot of liberal/ lefty types who don’t really pay much attention still think that if you’re criticizing Russia, that you’re some kind of ’50s John Bircher type.
MisterForkbeard
@MattF: Well, you know. If we asked anyone with Russian connections whether or not they’d colluded with Trump, we’ve CLEARLY colluded with foreign nationals to influence the election.
I think that’s the idea.
Villago Delenda Est
@trollhattan: Donald is going to have a welcome not seen in England since the disposition of Charles I.
Mandalay
@Raven Onthill:
I share your skepticism. I think part of the problem is that the media don’t really know the reality, and choose to make it into a love story and soap opera. (How informed can your opinion be if you are not actually Korean? You just ask someone who is Korean and parrot what they said?)
FWIW, a South Korean wrote an article titled Do (South) Koreans Really Want Reunification? a few years ago:
It’s only anecdotal, but I know many (West) Germans also felt exactly that way about their reunification.
J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford
If the DPRK and ROK are at peace than the only restriction on DPRK’s nuclear program should be not to sell technology to other nations. If they take a step in the right direction, I think the rest of the world should reward them at an appropriate level with an easing on sanctions and welcome into the world community provided they begin increasing the standard of living for their citizens. Show them the benefits of being a modern nation and slowly ease their people into the current era.
I know that sounds naive but the other way doesn’t work. Kim isn’t stupid and if the price is flattery, that is small comparatively. I’m sick and tired of the “they must acquiesce to every demand and be humiliated” mode of foreign relations with North Korea and Cuba. These are small nations with people that will easily integrate into the modern world. It won’t take much to get them up and running properly.
Viva BrisVegas
@Kay:
Russia is not just a conservative state, it has evolved into fascist state along the lines of Franco’s Spain or Salazar’s Portugal.
The corporatist, authoritarianism, nationalist and anti-democratic nature of the Putinist state define it as fascist.
The currently ascendant wing of the Republican Party aspires to the exact same philosophy.
Mandalay
@catclub:
Guess who has already done that?
Frankensteinbeck
@lollipopguild:
There is something very important here. Sane, decent people don’t understand how an obvious liar like Trump can be seen as ‘authentic.’ Imagine if you are someone who has a lot of vile views about women, minorities, basically everyone. You’re an asshole who is smart enough to not say these things out loud, because of course it’s unacceptable. From that point of view, Trump is breathtaking. He is saying and getting away with saying the things you would never dare. It doesn’t matter that he lies about a lot of other things. He is being more honest than any other public speaker, ever. It’s a relative measure, and he has left everyone else in the dust. So, anyone who thinks Trump is authentic? Yeah, most likely they’re hiding thoughts like that and think everyone else is, too. Note that this includes most media figures.
TenguPhule
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford:
Point of order, Kim’s traditional response has been to horde all the aid for his military and keeping the rest as piss poor peons. Sanctions or no sanctions, I don’t expect their lives to improve.
TenguPhule
@Frankensteinbeck:
Look, we can’t win with just sane decent people. We need a majority.
Viva BrisVegas
@TenguPhule:
Kim wants three things:
A guarantee of the survival of his dynasty.
A bigger and better military.
South Korean cash.
He gets none of those by giving up his nukes.
TenguPhule
@Viva BrisVegas: But I’m betting he gets all of them from Trump.
Peale
@catclub: and it’s not like Marxism as practiced in Russia was the golden age of tolerance that’s somehow been lost through a revival.
Frankensteinbeck
@TenguPhule:
He won’t get any of those three from Trump. However, the ability to ignore the US while Trump sits on his own thumb and spins certainly makes getting those things easier.
The Moar You Know
@TenguPhule: huh. My lifelong opposition to the death penalty now gone with one post. Seriously. Kill this fucker.
Jay
@gvg:
The South Korean Military is outmanned, but not out
gunned. South Korea has some of the best weapon systens in the world, many domestically produced. When you land at Kimpo Airport, one thing you might notice as you taxi towards the terminal, is all the tanks, bunkers, guns an missile systems right beside the tarmac and between the runways and taxi ways, to neutralize a NORK commando assault quickly.
South Korea want’s “family reunification” with the North, the re-establishment of family communications, visits and cultural ties. The NORK’s probably not as afraid of this as propaganda makes out. Authotarian regimes if in place long enough, strip their citizens of “agency”. The State determines where you go to school, what you learn, if you graduate, where you work, where you live. Making small choices becomes hard, let alone big choices. Often unreported, but many NORK refugee’s in the South, commit suicide, hate their lives, and many return to North Korea, despite the punishment upon arrival. Northerner’s are seen as “second class” in the South, do not have the skill set to compete in the job market, wind up being economically disadvantaged, and are overwhelmed by choices. Unless a defector is of value to the Southern propaganda campaign, they tend to disappear into obscurity.
The North want’s economic re-unification with the South. The North was always the raw materials/heavy industry sector of Korea, while the South was the breadbasket. Combined, they made one functioning country. Now of course, the South is all things, while for all the “juche” that North Korea has tried, you can’t turn mountains and rocks into a breadbasket, and you can’t become a world technology leader, cut off from the world.
I would guess that the deal the two Korea’s come up with is a “peace” agreement of some sort, repositioning military forces away from the borders, the US out, some reduction in both Militaries, perhaps some pompkin joint exercises, limited family, communication and cultural re-unification, limited cross border trade, limited Southern Economic investment in North Korea, limited Southern Humanitarian aid to the North.
Both the North and the South recognize that a peaceful reunification process will take several generations, and that even starting the process will cause domestic, regional and global ripples who’s effects will be hard to predict.
Fair Economist
@Adam L Silverman:
*South* Korea wants this, because any significant civilian contact between the Koreas will result in reunification on the South’s terms in fairly short order. Supermarkets and K-pop vs. hunger and communist anthems is a very easy choice.
I’m not sure what North Korea would want out of peace without reunification unless it’s a sham to fight South Korea alone shortly afterwards.
jl
Thanks to ALS for a very informative post.
I hope that either Moon is very adept at negotiation, and maintaining domestic support so the SK can be united on a long run plan, and can negotiate a safe demilitarization of the peninsula without reliance on US being smart about it, at least while Trump is in office. Otherwise Moon must be betting that the Trumpsters are not malicious idiots, which is very bad bet.
artem1s
@Bobby Thomson:
It will also give Dolt45 an excuse to boot Kelly and whoever the watch dog of the moment is. Expect Ryan to use the clergy gaff as a ‘get out of Dodge’ excuse too. None of the empty suits who wouldn’t stand up to the Gohmert wing during the GOP primaries are going to stand up now that Mueller is closing in. The best we can hope for if Bolton gets his way is that the Joint Chiefs slow roll the prep for an invasion. If Bolton decides he can risk a nuke, we are all fucked.
Jay
@Fair Economist:
“Supermarkets and K-pop vs. hunger and communist anthems is a very easy choice.”
NORK’s are the product of 4 Generations of a Closed Society. When the State has made every important decision in your life, and you accept that as the norm, and the few individual choices you make in life, daily, monthly, annually are limited by scarcity, what effect do you think an 8 story Electronic’s Mall with 228 vendor shops, all belting out different K-Pop, volume at 11, complete with flashing coloured lights, disco balls and strobe light’s, would have?
Not including Reserves, the NORK’s have a 2.4:1 manpower advantage over the South. On the other hand, the South has a real Navy, and a modern Airforce, while the NORK’s are stuck in the air in the late ’60’s, and at sea, are limited to a Guerilla Navy.
On land, the South has NATO Standard Forces, some of the best Commando’s and Special Forces in the world. The NORK’s have 2 year, Soviet Pattern Conscripts.
The South has one of the best tanks in the world, arguably the best artillary in the world and lot’s of precision missiles and other weapons, backed by a Western Logistical train and a domestic Industrial Complex. The NORK’s have lot’s of tanks, artillary and missiles, more than the South, but again, stuck in the ’60’s, and once South, NLRK forces are expected to forage for fuel, ammo, weapons, medicine and food.
A North/South War, even with out the US/NATO/SEATO involvement will probably not result in a Northern victory.
Adam L Silverman
@eemom: It’s what Moon thinks he can get. Not what I think Kim would allow.
Adam L Silverman
@gvg: The ROK has more people under arms than the DPRK does.
Adam L Silverman
@Mandalay: My impression is they don’t want reunification, but some, like Moon, want a rapprochement that allows for families to reunite. Whether this is realistic or not is another question.
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman: DPRK also has all those lovely chemical weapons.
That VX assassination was a clear message.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
The ROK has 625,000 active members and 3.1 million reserves,
The KPA has between 950,000 and 1.12 million active members and up to 5.559 million reserves.
But, quantity isn’t quality.
Jay
@TenguPhule:
As Adam pointed out, in a previous front page post, CBW has limited military use, but is a civillian terror weapon. Who do you think will take more CBW casualties, ROK Soldiers in current leading edge NBC Suits, or KPA Soldiers attempting to cross into the chemical wasteland in 1960’s vintage Soviet NBC gear?
TenguPhule
@Jay: I think it becomes a moot point if any of it is deployed in the ROK cities & villages.
Sm*t Cl*de
It is not exactly a state secret that Trump wants a large well-funded military, based safely at home with no angry foreign people shooting at them, with no duties more arduous than (a) marching in Victory Parades past his viewing platform, and (b) voting Republican.
Sm*t Cl*de
@Viva BrisVegas:
The “partnership with theocratic scumbags” part is just icing on the cake.
Bill Arnold
Topical The Onion:
Netanyahu Provides Stunning New Evidence That Iranians Planned Sacking Of Babylon In 539 B.C.
Report Suggests Stalin Was Just One Great Purge Away From Creating Communist Utopia
A little shaky on the details but funny if you squint a bit.
I’m still bemused by the “typo” story. Does anyone know any more about how this happened?
Iran Gains, Then Loses, Nuclear Weapons Program Thanks to White House ‘Clerical Error’
(I’m guessing without evidence (like others) that there is evidence that J. Bolton did it. :-)
Jay
@TenguPhule:
CBW kills people, not as many or as fast as a saturation artillary, rocket and missile barrage.
As Adam has pointed out CNW degrades troops military effectiveness, but unless the enemy using the CBW is just sitting in defence, they have to then try to conduct operations across the CBW contaminated landscape, and if the weather turns, they can wind up “gassing” more of their own people, than the OPFOR.
And, as Adam pointed out, some biological weapons don’t have any friends, once the genie’s out of the bottle, nobody controls where the epidemic goes.
I suspect that the NORK’s CBW arsenal was created as a “doomsday” terror weapon and as a way to degrade the effectiveness of US bases in Oakinowa. Given the effectiveness of late ’60’s NBC gear, and how many of the NORK’s tanks are T54/55’s with out NBC protection, I suspect CBW use by the NORK’s would be a “dieing days Hail Mary”, a doomsday weapon.
The NORK’s have nukes now, so they already have a Система «Периметр»,
If, there is an agreement worked out between the North and the South, I suspect that a few years down the road, if the agreement holds, the NORK’s might be willing to trade their CBW for further concessions from the South.
Jay
@Sm*t Cl*de:
If the Military stays home and just parades, how’s Treason Tribble gonna manage to “take the oil”, etc?
eemom
@Adam L Silverman:
I can’t believe Moon would be dumb enough to believe he could get that. OTOH, he did use the words “peace” and “trump” in the same sentence, so who knows.
Peale
@Jay: he will grab Mexico’s oil instead
J R in WV
@Adam L Silverman:
I wish you could have attended the first Sunday service I marched to in boot camp in 1970. Holy rollers, calling for men to come to the altar and profess with belief in Christ the Lord and Savior. It was as Southern Baptist as you could get in northern Illinois.
I actually had to threaten to make a stink to avoid going every Sunday because as U-U it was despicable to me to be forced to undergo brain washing in a foreign religion. It was horrible, and I got yelled at by a professional shouter in the barracks for 2 hours, and then he turned me over to the battalion commander for further yelling. I stood at attention and was silent, as seemed appropriate, except for direct questions which I answered with single syllables and “SIR!”.
Jay
@Peale:
Wrong side of the wall,……