Adding to David’s post below, it doesn’t take a rocket surgeon to know that you can’t threaten and intimidate witnesses, period, let alone while you are on home confinement. And Paul Manafort knows that. I mean they’re all stupid in the sense that they have white guy arrogance in that they think they can get away with anything, but they’re not that stupid that they don’t know that witness tampering is no bueno.
And that’s what you need to keep in mind when you talk about Paul Manafort- he’s so guilt and so compromised and in so deep that he determined that witness tampering and threatening witnesses was his LEAST bad option.
TenguPhule
Proof of intelligence not in evidence.
Waldo
The nature and severity of his crimes won’t matter once Trump pardons him. Might as well swing for the fences.
kindness
Agreed they are dumb asses but we all know Trump will try to pardon them.
I sure hope one of the state AG’s can file some charges too so the pardon doesn’t become the get out of jail free card Trump thinks he can toss around. It’s gonna happen. It’s only a question of when.
TenguPhule
First smile of the day.
Mike in NC
Hopefully Paul Manafort has been sweetly singing to the Office of the Special Counsel for some time now. A litany of confessions involving Flynn, Junior, Javanka, Stone, Guiliani, and last but not least, Putin’s Favorite Bitch.
dedc79
Here’s what I want to know. He put up $11 million as part of a deal to get house arrest rather than be stuck in prison. He proceeded to (allegedly) commit new crimes during that house arrest. A lot of people are predicting his bail will be revoked as soon as next week, BUT, what happens to that $11 million he put up? That money includes the condo he is currently under house arrest in. Did he just forfeit this and other properties?
If that doesn’t get him to flip, nothing will.
la caterina (Mrs. Johannesburg)
Is it wrong of me to be looking forward to Manafort’s prospective incarceration next week?
It’s not merely for the schadenfreude. I really need some assurance that the rule of law is not dead yet.
Immanentize
@Waldo: Why doesn’t Trump pardon Manafort? If Trump pardons Manafort, then Pauly has no fifth amendment protection, so he is called to the Grand Jury and must tell all. If he doesn’t he will then be held in criminal contempt for failure to testify. If he doesn’t tell the whole truth or lies, he will be prosecuted for perjury.
There is no wisdom in Trump pardoning Manafort now or anytime before he is convicted.
Cheryl Rofer
Here’s the latest superseding indictment. Lawyers I follow on Twitter are saying it’s pretty much the same as before, with the addition of Kilimnik and the witness tampering counts. With Kilimnik in it, it’s the first indictment including a connection between an American and a Russian agent.
Every time Manafort comes up, I keep wondering what he was thinking as he continued along his path. Viktor Yanukovich probably wasn’t a barrel of laughs to work with. I don’t see much in his work that could have been pleasurable. He made a bunch of money, but he lost a bunch of money too and likely was deep in debt to Deripaska and others when he came to work for Trump. Even the power he enjoyed was secondary, but I’ve known people who like being close to power more than they like wielding it themselves.
And now, as John says, witness tampering was the least bad option. He is likely going to prison for the rest of his life, and how long that is depends on how safe the prison is from Putin’s folks. Escaping to Russia isn’t even an option.
TenguPhule
@Waldo:
Committing state crimes to avoid federal crimes sounds an awful lot like trying to murder Peter to steal his organs for Paul.
TenguPhule
@dedc79:
He doesn’t actually put up $11 million. More like $1.1 million, IIRC.
TenguPhule
@Cheryl Rofer:
He thought he was untouchable because he’s a rich Republican.
Amir Khalid
Maybe Paulie Manafort believes that as long as you aren’t actually behaving like the Piranha brothers, you’re not intimidating the witness.
dedc79
@TenguPhule: This is how Politico reported it at the time:
zhena gogolia
@Amir Khalid:
He has his head filled with all that Cartesian dualism.
germy
Here’s what I don’t understand:
Why bother with witness tampering if he expects a pardon?
Dnfree
Rocket surgeon!
JPL
@Immanentize: Why can’t he pardon him from future events. President Ford did that.
Yutsano
@kindness: He’s up for state tax charges in Virginia. So there’s something he can’t weasel out of.
Corner Stone
@Cheryl Rofer:
I’ve wondered about this when I read references to it. Any links to what he lost a significant amount of money doing?
ETA, I have always assumed he was never very wealthy but just laundered cash for his clients and took his commission.
Sanjuro58
Would you trust Trump to actually carry through with the pardon?
Obvious Russian Troll
@germy: He’s stupid enough to tamper with witnesses, but he’s not stupid enough to expect Trump to give him a pardon.
TenguPhule
@dedc79: Five will get you ten there are preexisting liens on the property from banks Manafort borrowed money from. Encumbered property sound exactly the kind of skeevy thing he’d do.
Steeplejack
@dedc79:
IANAL, but I don’t think he forfeits. The bail is to keep you from fleeing. If you’re still around and they revoke bail, for whatever reason, I think your bail agreement just, uh, expires (for lack of a better word).
Will wait patiently for a real lawyer to completely refudiate this.
JPL
@Corner Stone: Since I watched Ozark, when you launder money you actually don’t get to keep much.
TenguPhule
About fucking time!
J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford
OT:Teacher claims school made him resign for not using transgender student’s preferred name
“I enjoy being the orchestra teacher at Brownsburg,” Kluge wrote in a statement. “It’s unfortunate that the administration is not letting me come back and that they are unwilling to continue a reasonable accommodation that most people consider to be very common sense.”
I think referring to people by their preferred name is “a reasonable accommodation that most people consider to be very common sense.”
Cheryl Rofer
@Corner Stone: Manafort’s financial doings have never been clear to me. I recall that he owed Deripaska $17 million. I suspect it’s all been money laundering. Which he had to know was illegal.
dedc79
@Steeplejack: Well, i’m a real lawyer but I don’t practice crim law, which is why I was posing it as a question. That said, it’s all right there in quotes from the bail agreement –
Mueller is claiming a bail violation and moving to revoke bail. So it seems to me it just comes down to how pissed the judge is going to be at Manafort for committing this crime while out on bail.
Patricia Kayden
@Waldo: Trump can’t pardon state convictions.
Gozer
“Look, forget the myths the media’s created about the White House–the truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.”
-Deep Throat (Hal Holbrook)
All the President’s Men
Amir Khalid
@Steeplejack:
I’m not sure just how bail works in America, but isn’t the bail money forfeited if you violate the terms of bail in any way? And it would seem to me that tampering with witnesses is the sort of thing that would trigger both a trip to the slammer and forfeiture of bail.
catclub
@Immanentize:
so then Trump pardons him for contempt and failure to testify. The pardon power is, as we know, virtually unlimited.
Wasn’t Trump’s pardon of Joe Arpaio for contempt.
JaneSays
@Immanentize: … And after he is prosecuted for perjury, Cheetolini will just pardon him for that, too.
JPL
What does this mean?
It’s a ruling from Judge Wood
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1005176843065085952
Mike in DC
My general impression is that revocation of bail means loss of bail, and you go to jail until trial. I think sitting in a prison jumper in a 10×6 cell will concentrate Paulie’s mind wonderfully. Clam up and face at least 1-2 years in prison before the pardon comes–if it ever does–or flip before trial in exchange for no more than 2-3 years, and keep some of your stuff.
Corner Stone
@Cheryl Rofer: I guess that is part of what I am trying to figure out. How do you “owe” $17M? It seems much more likely to me that he tried to keep $17M of Deripaska’s money he was washing and got called out on it.
trollhattan
@dedc79:
They’re smart enough to keep Joseph DeAngelo in jail awaiting trial, for obvious reasons, and i don’t know why a demonstrably serial criminal with a high probability of flight deserves bail anymore than that guy.
“Go forth and sin no more.”
Right
Steeplejack
@dedc79, @Amir Khalid:
I look forward to sitting through six hours of MSNBC tonight to get this adjudicated.
(Not really. I’m bolting to PBS at 8:00 for Vera, followed by look-ins to the Warriors giving the coup de grace to the Cavs.)
MattF
People who worked with Manafort in the past have commented on his complete lack of remorse or caution. It’s his distinguishing feature. He’ll do anything, he’ll take any risk if there’s a possibility that he’ll get away with it. Remember, this is Roger Stone’s business partner. So, lack of caution is his operating principle.
The difference is that he’s not lurking in the shadows any more and there’s a prosecutor on his case, literally. And that just hasn’t registered– the things he needs to do at this point just aren’t in his behavioral repertoire.
Gozer
Tried to edit my earlier post to no avail, but whatever…
I think it’s instructive to remember re. Manafort that this is a man who got torpedoed in part because he couldn’t figure out how to convert a document into PDF and subsequently put his conspiracy to commit bank fraud in an email and likely will have the terms of his bond agreement terminated because his encrypted chats were backed up (unencrypted!) to a consumer cloud storage service.
FlyingToaster
@Amir Khalid: No. Bail is only forfeited if you run. If you show up at all scheduled hearings, or if bail is revoked and you’re in jail, then you get your stuff back. In this case, the lawyers will likely be taking it to pay for his defense.
Bail is strictly to prevent flight. Remand (in jail until trial) is for when you’re either a guaranteed flight risk, or when you’ve violated your bail conditions.
Not a lawyer, but I have relatives. Enough said.
rikyrah
House Republicans eliminate funding for Children’s Health Insurance Program
Travis Gettys TRAVIS GETTYS
08 JUN 2018 AT 06:28 ET
ouse Republicans voted overwhelmingly to eliminate funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program, or CHIP, after approving a White House budget plan.
Representatives voted 210-206 — with 187 Democrats and 19 Republicans against — to rescind nearly $15 billion in unspent funding that had previously been approved, including $7 billion for CHIP, reported the New York Times.
JUST IN: On a party-line vote, @HouseGOP passed the Trump-GOP rescissions package that eliminates Children’s Health Insurance Program funding and cuts programs that create jobs & strengthen communities. pic.twitter.com/S70haZgZEe
— Appropriations Dems (@AppropsDems) June 8, 2018
Lawmakers had voted in January to reauthorize CHIP for another six years as part of a spending bill to reopen the government, after letting the program’s funding lapse for 114 days.
The Congressional Budget Office insisted the canceled funding would not change what the government spends on CHIP or affect the number of children with coverage.
The bill approved by House Republicans would reduce actual spending by a total of $1.1 billion from 2018 to 2028, according to the CBO.
Congress approved $1.5 trillion in tax cuts in December, and then a $1.3 trillion spending plan in March, as annual deficits reach nearly $1 trillion.
The rescissions package, which would pull back almost $15 billion in unspent funding, was pushed by House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who is considered a leading contender as the next House Speaker.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/house-republicans-eliminate-funding-childrens-health-insurance-program/
rikyrah
@FlyingToaster:
BWA HA HA HA HA H AH HA HA HAH A
trollhattan
@Gozer:
He should have had Barron do all his cybers.
Loser!
rikyrah
@JPL:
I’m guessing this is for the press who have requested access to the documents seized.
Aleta
@germy: Micromanaging? (joke, maybe. Loaded up with cocaine + alcohol, was overcome by his compulsion to control? And doesn’t trust those witnesses, while also knowing their testimony about their work in the US would open a new can of inquiry?) Someone as untrustworthy as he probably doesn’t trust anyone, of course.
As Sanjuro and ORT said, he must believe DT will throw him under the bus. Which DT will do as easily as ice cream melts in his mouth. “I never told Manafort to do that, and I fired him as soon as I suspected he was working with the (Ukrainians/whoever).” (“And that’s why I had to make Ivanka travel to Russia the next week.”)
TenguPhule
@Mike in DC:
And a visit by one of Putin’s plumbers.
Litlebritdifrnt
So Twitler said today that Melania couldn’t join him at the G7 conference because her doctors said she couldn’t fly for a month after “major surgery” Are we all supposed to just forget that the Whitehouse told us it was a minor arthroscopic procedure, that many commenters stated would not even require more than a day in the hospital. At what point are the fucking reporters going to start doing their jobs and say to twitler when he says shit like this “but sir, didn’t the White House staff say this was a minor procedure?” It has gone from a “minor kidney procedure ” to “major surgery” that means she can’t fly for a month in less than a month and everyone is cool with that? WTF
Ruckus
@germy:
He doesn’t expect a pardon. And I’d bet he isn’t going to get one. Just a hunch.
Joey Maloney
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford: Seen on Twitter: “So you’d like your job back, Mr. Shitstain McPedobeard?” “That’s not my name.” “Whatever.”
Mike in DC
@TenguPhule:
He’s a threat even if he doesn’t talk, so long as he lives. But if he talks, he at least gets some protection.
scav
Ah, there’s my little cheerful nub of cheer for the day. I’m sure there’s not a real connection, but I’m avoiding throwing myself into the grumpy political weeds by obsessively tracing my new line of German ancestors (back to the 1600s!) and they’re through the Mueller / Möller line. Sure, they’re all a bunch of landless laborers and cottagers (turns out there are a remarkable number of German words to describe the condition) but that status can breed determination and dogged thoroughness. Go Muellers / Möllers! (& associated Wittes and Finks)
dedc79
@FlyingToaster:
Again, that’s not how this bail agreement was worded: “The Defendant will execute an agreement to forfeit four (4) separate real properties if there is a bail violation with a total estimated net value (i.e., fair market value less encumbrances) of approximately $11.65 million.”
Committing a crime while out on bail is a bail violation.
trollhattan
President Obama notes Tony B’s passing.
MattF
@Litlebritdifrnt: Reality is that, in the White House, it’s not about Melania– it’s about you-know-who. And anything or any one that might compete for attention with you-know-who is out of bounds.
germy
germy
@Aleta:
Plausible. He seems like a hands-on guy.
(Bloody hands, according to a family member.)
MattF
@germy: Giuliani is obviously just tossing shit out every which way. If it sticks, he’ll repeat it.
sukabi
@dedc79: my theory is that they’ve all gotten away with crossing minor lines, and each line they cross builds on the prior breaches of law that it’s been baby steps all the way from campaign dirty tricks back in the 70s to tax evasion, money laundering and treason…up till now they’ve all been “lucky” (or protected) to not get caught.
germy
@trollhattan: I remember Tony B. mentioning how Obama made sure everyone in the crew had time to eat. The first guest to be concerned for the camera/sound etc. crew. Usually they’re invisible.
Aleta
fwiw, from The Hill in April 2017
Kyle
One thing I have not seen mentioned about this is any reference to the nature of the governments with which he is used to dealing. Russia, Ukraine, et al., are governments completely dominated by corruption. I’m no expert, but I’d imagine that his doing this in those countries would not only be unsurprising but expected.
Also not mentioned, when his bail is revoked next week, he will likely start serving a life sentence. He will never get out of jail.
Kyle
MattF
Rick Wilson, once again, tells the truth.
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
What kind of person becomes Paul Manafort? Who… I mean… I…
It isn’t only that he’s so fucking sleazy, and I find it hard to understand who would do the things he did and work for the people [sic] he worked for. But how do you do that? I mean, how does somebody just find work shilling for some bloody strongman like Mobutu? What do you do? How do you get that kind of work? Do you send resumes to dictators? How does a guy get clients like that? I wouldn’t even know how to begin.
lynn
This has nothing to do with stupid. This is a fear of plutonium tea.
Aleta
@germy:
Which of The Families?
Calouste
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford: As always, it’s not just enough for these people to believe in something, they have to be assholes about it.
I wonder (ha ha, no I don’t) if that teacher refers to Jeb Bush as “John Bush”, to cite just one example of many people who go by a name that is not their legal name.
divF
@Litlebritdifrnt: When I had my laparoscopic surgery (on a kidney, it turns out) the one thing I was absolutely forbidden to do was fly for a month. It isn’t the size of the incision, but the stresses put on by the pressure differences.
ETA: In every other respect, the surgery was minor. I was up and functioning normally within 24 hours.
Amir Khalid
@FlyingToaster:
I too have relatives in the legal profession, so there.
jl
ut-bay it-tay uz-way ent-say n-tay ode-kway! Nunfair-way!
smintheus
Don’t they still sell burner phones? Why would Manafort leave an easily traceable trail?
zhena gogolia
@germy:
How far we have fallen!!!!!
dedc79
@smintheus: he was using encrypted messaging but had apparently set them to back up to his iCloud without realizing that would create a record.
John Revolta
@divF: Interesting. Has Melania not flown anywhere in the last month, I wonder?
Steeplejack
@trollhattan:
The Vietnamese diners in that restaurant playing it cool always crack me up.
LAO
@Steeplejack: you are correct.
Calouste
@dedc79: Apparently Paulie didn’t learn from watching old-fashioned spy movies where secret messages self-destruct shortly after reading.
Anotherlurker
@germy: There is some really nice talent, working in the biz.
Whoopie Goldberg is one of them.
It boils dow to how they came up in the business and in life.
Tony B. and Whoopie know what it is like to be the hired help.
So does President Obama.
Jack the Second
@John Revolta: Also, we’re talking Air Force One, where you can walk around freely, where you’re never stuck on the runway for three hours, where you have an on-call doctor, and probably a goddamn surgical theater for all I know. Not coach on United.
germy
John Kelly’s phone was hacked?
Steeplejack
@Amir Khalid:
Who said F.T.’s relatives were lawyers? They might have, uh, other experience with the system.
Gelfling 545
@Immanentize: All of what you say is true yet wisdom has not been shown to be a quality Trump possesses.
Steeplejack
@LAO:
I knew those years of covering county court would come in handy! (Well, vaguely hoped, but whatevs.)
patrick II
@Cheryl Rofer:
This may sound dumb because the scale is so different — but when I read about Manafort I am reminded of a friend who’s wife is a compulsive shopper. She can’t stop herself. They’ve gone to counseling and she is better, but still really can’t pass up a good deal.
So, when I hear about Manafort making some money and blowing it all on cars and houses and expensive suits, I think he couldn’t stop himself. And rather than go to counseling he took any job he could and even went into debt so he could keep shopping. Not the deepest analysis, I know, but he seems to be a compulsive who couldn’t stop himself. Maybe he’ll get some therapy in prison.
VOR
@Litlebritdifrnt:
I had a kidney biopsy and the doctor cleared me for a flight less than 24 hours later. Granted, much less serious procedure than what Melania supposedly had. Totally agree their changing story doesn’t smell right.
Steeplejack
@germy:
Kelly:
Shana
@Aleta: I know there are a lot of moving parts to all this, but I don’t understand how it’s legal to retroactively register as a foreign lobbyist. Can anyone enlighten me?
Frankensteinbeck
@kindness:
I do not know this. I’m in the group that thinks Trump is too short-sightedly selfish and mean to pardon the people who are exactly the ones he would be smartest to pardon. His gut tells him that the moment they’re a danger, he should throw them to the wolves. If he were going to issue pardons to protect himself, he would have started by now.
SiubhanDuinne
@Litlebritdifrnt:
I didn’t watch that presser until several hours after the fact, but that about Melania struck me, too. Didn’t hear any part of the SarahHuckabeeSanders Show today, but would love to think that some intrepid WH reporter might have asked about the discrep–
Ah, who am I kidding?
Ksmiami
@TenguPhule: I just won’t be happy till the lot of them are given the Mussolini piazzale loreto treatment- what a bunch of thugs
sdhays
@smintheus: He thinks burner phones are used for literally burning.
moops
@Frankensteinbeck:
You sort of need wait until all the charges are laid before going for the pardon, or you have to drop new pardons as new crimes come to light. It’s not a rule, GW Bush attempted to revoke a pardon, but that never got anywhere.
As for losing 5th amendment after being pardoned, I foresee Manafort being pardoned, then still lying madly in his testimony. Nobody is going to stop him. If anyone dares charge him with perjury or whatever Trump will just pardon him again.
Platonailedit
It’s been more than a year and yet none of the treasonous turd’s team is behind bars. If Mueller can’t do it, then the state attys will do it, is not a comforting trend.
J R in WV
@moops:
Actually, there is a limit on the pardon power. It cannot be used in Cases of Impeachment. So all we have to do is start hearings about impeachment, and Trump’s magical power to pardon vanishes like the dew in July.
Chet Murthy
@moops:
Un, no. Nixon was pardoned even though never indicted. A pardon can be pretty broad. As I remember, the only thing it can’t be, is for conduct in the present/future. Only in the past.
Chet Murthy
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.):
I didn’t list all the horrific dictators, but … well, you get the idea. I don’t have answers as to what kind of person, but clearly there’s a lot of them thru history, and today also, is all I’m saying.
Chet Murthy
@J R in WV:
I wonder what this means. Is there case law around it? I’d have thought that it meant “the President can’t pardon somebody who’s in the process of being impeached”. Maybe even with the addendum “…. from that impeachment.” But what do I know? (ans: “nuthin”).
bobbo
Also too, afraid of being murdered by the Russian mob?
jharp
There is still jury tampering to fall back on.
workworkwork
@Calouste: And it’s not even that unusual to call a student by their preferred name, anyway.
“William Sherman? Oh, do you go by William or Bill?”
“Will.”
“Okay, Will it is then.”
He’s just being a dick.