Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The arc of the moral universe does not bend itself. it is up to us to bend it.

If rights aren’t universal, they are privilege, not rights.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Welcome to day five of every-bit-as-bad-as-you-thought-it-would-be.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Jesus watching the most hateful people claiming to be his followers

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

An almost top 10,000 blog!

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

The press swings at every pitch, we don’t have to.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Books are my comfort food!

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Excellent Links / Monday Morning Open Thread: Keep Up the Good Fight

Monday Morning Open Thread: Keep Up the Good Fight

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Let’s hope along with Mr. Charles P. Pierce, at Esquire:

… Up until now, all of the #Resistance has contained a barely acknowledged undercurrent of futility. It was not that the opposition was empty. It was that it generally broke like a wave on a seawall when it collided with the immutable fact that the president*’s party controlled every lever of political power at the federal level, as well as a great number of them out in the states, too.

The week just passed has changed the calculations. The images from the border, and the White House’s fatheaded trolling of the situation, seems to have shaken up everyone in Washington to the point at which alliances are more fluid than they have been since January of 2017. There seems little doubt that the Republicans in the House of Representatives are riven with ideological chaos, struck numb by the basic conundrum of modern conservatism: When your whole political identity is defined by the proposition that government is not the solution, but, rather, the problem, you don’t know how to operate it when fortune and gerrymandering hand you the wheel…

You can feel the difference in the air. The members of the governing party, uneasy about the prospects for this year’s midterms anyway, are fairly trembling at the moment, seeing in their mind’s eyes a hundred 30-second spots of weeping toddlers behind chain-link walls. The president* has gone completely incoherent, standing firm until he doesn’t, looking for help in the Congress that he’ll never get, and reversing himself so swiftly on his one signature issue that he’s probably screwed himself up to the ankles in the floor of the Oval Office. By Friday afternoon, he was back on the electric Twitter machine, yapping about the Democrats and “their phony stories of sadness and grief.” And a hundred Republican candidates dive back behind the couch.

The country’s head is clearing. The country’s vision is coming back into focus and it can see for the first time the length and breadth of the damage it has done to itself. The country is hearing the voices that the cacophony of fear and anger had drowned out for almost three years. The spell, such as it was, and in most places, may be wearing off at last. The hallucinatory effect of a reality-show presidency* is dispersing like a foul, smoky mist over a muddy battlefield.

The migrant crisis is going to go down through history as one of the most destructive series of own-goals in the history of American politics. The establishment of the “zero-tolerance” policy made the child-nabbing inevitable. The president*’s own rhetoric—indeed, the raison d’etre of his entire campaign—trapped him into at first defending the indefensible and then abandoning what was perhaps the only consistent policy idea he ever had—outside of enriching himself and his family, that is. Then the cameras began to roll, and the nation’s gorge began to rise, and the president* couldn’t stand the pressure that was mounting around him. Of course, because he knows nothing about anything, including how to actually be president*, he bungled even his own abject surrender. He’s spent the days since signing his executive order railing against what he felt compelled to do and arguing against himself and losing anyway…

Reader Interactions

183Comments

  1. 1.

    NobodySpecial

    They like to call the 70s the Me Generation, but this really was the Me Election. Too many people acted like their choices were in a self contained vacuum and the effects would affect no one else. They were wrong, as always.

    Hopefully we can fix this, but I worry we’re too complacent to keep up the effort if the wave hits in November.

  2. 2.

    Dan B

    This may be the beginning of the end of the line for Trump but there are competent and terrible people who are waiting for the botyleneck to be removed. Although it’s not good to dwell on the worst that could happen it’s good to consider contingency plans in case. What if Pence is suddenly in charge and behind the scenes the military right wing rallies to “control” the chaos?
    Many on the left wail, “What do we do?” and the answer won’t be, “Get out the vote.” at least not an effective answer. We need to develop strategic actions that don’t give ammunition to the proponents of martial law and clearly communicate a few positive outcomes based upon compelling moral positions.

  6. 6.

    NobodySpecial

    @rikyrah: He finally looked up from embracing guys with guns and Confederate flags in their pickups and saw the bundle of Tiki Torches.

  7. 7.

    Pyre Light

    Tomorrow is NY primary day, and here in NY-19 there are 7 candidates to choose from! I am trying to choose and like Delgado, Flynn, and Ryan. Anyone else want to share an opinion?

  8. 8.

    Pangloss

    The country’s head is clearing. The country’s vision is coming back into focus and it can see for the first time the length and breadth of the damage it has done to itself. The country is hearing the voices that the cacophony of fear and anger had drowned out for almost three years. The spell, such as it was, and in most places, may be wearing off at last. The hallucinatory effect of a reality-show presidency* is dispersing like a foul, smoky mist over a muddy battlefield.

    I wish that was the case, but numbers say otherwise. I see a 5% advantage for Democrats in enthusiasm and congressional control preference. Trump himself is approved by 90% of his party and about 43% of Americans.

    Katrina came only after Bush fucked up by starting an insane and unnecessary war in Iraq; had a scandal with Enron; tried to force through more FCC deregulation; lost focus on Afghanistan, shoved through Medicare Part D with a donut hole in an historic, fraudulent gift to Big Pharma; practically shut down SEC oversight of Wall Street; had pictures of Abu Ghraib torture and humiliation all over television screens in the summer of 2004. And yet, Bush was STILL re-elected anyway (the only popular vote POTUS win for the Republicans since 1988).

    After his re-election came the appointment of historically incompetent Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, and then Katrina.
    Katrina was almost immediately followed by the nomination of similarly incompetent and unqualified Harriet Miers, and many, many. many other scandals. So Katrina was a turning point, but it didn’t happen until Bush had screwed up almost everything for 4 2/3 years.

  9. 9.

    geg6

    So I see that the world is gonna end BJ crew is up early and spreading hope and sunshine.

    Good morning, rikyrah.

  10. 10.

    Haroldo

    A few words of optimism at the dawn is not the worst thing in the world.

    (Let’s see if my comment makes it. Things were busted last night.)

  14. 14.

    Platonailedit

    It was that it generally broke like a wave on a seawall when it collided with the immutable fact that the president*’s party controlled every lever of political power at the federal level, as well as a great number of them out in the states, too.

    Dem voters need to move their asses at least now. Instead of petty pouting.

  18. 18.

    different-church-lady

    The country’s head is clearing. The country’s vision is coming back into focus and it can see for the first time the length and breadth of the damage it has done to itself.

    And in 2028 or so the country will go on another bender and crash the car in the ditch again.

  24. 24.

    Tokyokie

    @Starfish:

    More people died in Puerto Rico than in Katrina.

    Yes, but the incompetence of the federal response to Katrina received dramatically more news coverage than did the scandalous (lack of) effort in Puerto Rico.

  25. 25.

    satby

    @rikyrah: Good morning rikyrah ?!

    So, marches this Saturday against the Drumpf administration and their insane immigrant imprisonment program. Who’s going?

  26. 26.

    Barbara

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: My theory is that you can only infuriate people on one front at a time. In 2005 GWB overreached in the culture war, with Terry Schiavo, and then showed a combination of blistering incompetence and indifference during Katrina. This was after trying to privatize SS after mocking John Kerry in 2004 for saying he would do just that.

    A lot of what happens is comprehensible only in hindsight..

    ETA to get my dates straight.

  29. 29.

    JR

    @Pangloss: Bush once enjoyed ~90% approval. While it did take a long time for his reputation to turn, his situation is not exactly analogous to Trump’s.

  36. 36.

    Steeplejack

    Hmm, FYWP is cordially inviting me to edit or request deletion of the most recent comment—which doesn’t happen to be mine.

    I pressed “Edit,” a blank edit page came up and then churned endlessly until I reloaded the original post.

    ETA: But I can edit my own comment.

  37. 37.

    Platonailedit

    Given that the hate voting by the rw’ers and hate non-voting by the dems over the years wrought the current horrible scenario across federal and state levels, there is a reason for gloom and doom.

  43. 43.

    Dorothy Winsor

    Our sump pump failed yesterday, so we had water in our basement. Someone is coming this morning to replace it. I want this house off my hands so badly, I’ll take almost any offer a prospective buyer gives me.

    Moving truck coming next week.

  45. 45.

    Jack the Second

    @Pyre Light: I’m more torn between Clegg and Beals; Delgado/Flynn/Ryan literally moved back to the district to run which always makes me feel weird. Delgado and Ryan at least grew up here and have local-boy-makes-good stories; Flynn’s ties to the district are more aspirational.

    Clegg I like despite being an old white guy because he did a lot of civil rights work locally, both as a lawyer in trial cases and helping write legislation for the Ulster County leg, Beals because he’s a diplomat-turned-turkey-farmer/teacher in Woodstock; it may not have district-wide appeal, but it makes me think, “yes, this person is Representative of where I live.” Also nice to have a non-lawyer candidate, for variety.

    Rhodes, I have trouble with how young he is (he’s younger than ME, dammit); Collier I have too little information on to have a remotely informed opinion.

    I’ll be happy to vote for any of them in the fall, to campaign if I can manage the time, to donate money if the wife agrees, but for the primary I’ll probably vote Clegg or Beals.

  47. 47.

    Amir Khalid

    @Barbara:
    DCL is describing a cycle all too common among Republican-at-heart American voters: Republicans appeal to their worldview. So they elect Republicans. Republicans steer the country into a ditch. They are not happy. Democrats promise to pull the country out of the ditch. So they elect Democrats. Democrats pull the country out of the ditch. They are happy. Then Republicans appeal to their worldview. …

  50. 50.

    EZSmirkzz

    Good morning AL, a couple of good reads for you if you have the time, one from Talking Points Memo, https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-deals-and-the-flea-market-bargaining-of-the-world

    This is a topic we’ve talked about before, one that is very basic to international affairs and even basic business and legal studies theories of mediation and negotiation. I’d written about this at length in a number of posts. But late last year TPM Reader DM pointed me this post by Bill McBride at the Calculated Risk economics blog. It’s a clear and concise explanation.

    If you follow the links the post leads right into this one at lawfare, https://www.lawfareblog.com/whos-really-crossing-us-border-and-why-theyre-coming

    The current crisis hasn’t been caused by a sudden influx of migration, either. The peak in apprehensions of irregular migrants actually took place some 17 years ago, in FY2000. At that point, U.S. Border Patrol agents caught 1,643,679 migrants attempting to enter the United States without the appropriate papers, compared to 303,916 apprehensions in this past fiscal year.

    Not sure we can get any Trump Republicans to read the latter article- “I’ve made up my mind, don’t confuse me with facts!” The latter has good graphs, the former an excellent overview of Trump’s bargaining methodoligy and the damage that he is doing to world stability so he can be a grate President.

  51. 51.

    bystander

    De Blasio is on MoJo discussing the 300 children – the youngest is 9 months – in NYC. No indication anyone knows who their families are. Sounds like most were bussed to NY.

    Nobody reminds us that the would be criminals at our door risk life and limb to resist the life of crime and to keep their children safe from the evil of criminal activity.

  52. 52.

    Amir Khalid

    @Steeplejack:
    I encountered that too. The comment in my case was from Brickley Paiste, so I tried to delete it; as I pretty much expected, nothing happened.

  59. 59.

    Immanentize

    Huge lightning and thunder storm around Boston last night. Had one bolt crack just overhead. Bam!

    Router may be fried, but electricity is working!

    There’s a reason to marvel at our lives.

  62. 62.

    lowtechcyclist

    An additional Trump own goal this weekend – speaking about McCain’s vote to preserve Obamacare: “It’s alright, because we’ve essentially gutted it anyway.”

    Thanks, Cheeto Benito, for reminding everyone that you’re still doing your damnedest to do away with health care that millions of Americans depend on.

  65. 65.

    NotMax

    Been in the Amazon Prime queue for quite a while as was ambivalent about watching it (mistakenly under the impression it would be soap opera-y), however just finished viewing The Royal Tailor, from South Korea. Hard pressed to remember the last time I saw a movie of such meticulous passion. It’s long, clocking in at just over two hours but don’t think there’s more than maybe three minutes which could be cut without detriment to the whole.

    Wow. Just wow. Trailer.

  66. 66.

    Immanentize

    Well that’s something! The CRACK! I heard just at the moment of lightning and one second before the thunder seems to be my neighbor’s fifty foot cyprus tree —
    Well twenty foot tree now. Blasted. Wooden lightning rod was ten feet above there house roof ridge.

  69. 69.

    EZSmirkzz

    @Platonailedit: Also too, one and all, I’m still using my desktop running Mozilla and on occasion I have to manually refresh my browser. Haven’t had to use the the Ctrl+refresh however. YMMV on Chrome or mobile.

  70. 70.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Platonailedit: That and when I comment, my comment disappears. Renew the page and there it is. Not a big deal, it’s like that at OTB all the time.

  72. 72.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Platonailedit: I should mention that double clicking on the name box will pop up a window with your nym in it, and the same for the email box.

  74. 74.

    Dorothy Winsor

    @rikyrah: I was that yesterday. He makes a good argument that “civility” is not what’s called for.

    And I say to Sarah: Womp womp. (Though to me it sounded as if Lewandowsi was saying wah wah)

  78. 78.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @satby: Albuquerque had a big rally with Senator Martin Heinrich against T’s “zero tolerance” policy this weekend and there are several upcoming events scheduled for Santa Fe. The 6/30 march coincides with Santa Fe Pride, but we’d already planned to include some references to the child separation policy on the county party’s float, along with memorializing Claudia Patricia Gomez Gonzalez, the Guatemalan woman who was shot and killed by Border Patrol in May. The New Mexico Women’s March is having a rally against family detention on Thursday afternoon, which I plan to attend.

  80. 80.

    Dorothy Winsor

    We watched the last episode of “Genius: Picasso” last night, and I was disappointed. They had all Picasso’s lovers and children and friends appear in a dream sequence as he was dying. They said things like “our family was unconventional but we were a family because of love” and “perhaps we were your finest work of art.” Nothing in what we’d seen in all the previous episodes gave any grounds for those claims. It was just sentimental sanitizing.

  81. 81.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @NotMax: I am not allowed anywhere near a computer with an ax. Or a framing hammer, mattox, chain saw….

  84. 84.

    Kay

    Maureen Dowd
    ‏Follow Follow @maureendowd
    More
    With echoes of Kim Novak in “Vertigo,” Ivanka Trump turned herself into her father’s ideal.

    Look who’s back! Proud leader of the worst political coverage in the business.

    Remember when she named Obama “Obambi”? That was meant to make him into a girly-man. Unlike the strong conservative authoritarians the NYTimes political team prefer.

    What kind of bizarre variant of “feminism” is this, where one worships powerful men? It seems to be unique to that newspaper.

  85. 85.

    Procopius

    I hope your are right about the country’s head clearing, but I don’t believe you are. Trump’s approval rating is as high as it’s ever been. I suppose he might take a hit in this week’s polls, and I’ll be checking to see what 538 can tell me, but so many Americans seem to be content to kill children (nits make lice) that I really have little hope. I understand that in Christianity despair is a sin. I’m trying to avoid it.

  86. 86.

    Barbara

    @Amir Khalid: I am well aware of that cycle, but even that cycle has become comprehensible mostly in hindsight, beginning with the election of Bill Clinton, and it seems unjustified or at least highly presumptuous to assume that cycle will last for another 10 years as a given fact. The reason it has lasted as long as it has is the ridiculous magnification of the power of certain states, and while that will continue, there is a parallel, much more dynamic trend, of states like Virginia becoming bluer and bluer.

  87. 87.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @NotMax: I Have one. I am still not allowed anywhere near a computer with an ax, framing hammer, mattox, chain saw….

  88. 88.

    Amir Khalid

    @Kay:
    The weird thing about callimg Obama “Obambi” to feminise him is that, as anyone who has seen the movie will remember, Bambi is male and at the end defeats a rival in combat to become the most macho stag in the forest.

  89. 89.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @NobodySpecial: More like the Hometown Buffet Electron – The Trump votes just assumed their votes got them the Trump positions they liked and they could refused the Trump positions they didn’t like.

  93. 93.

    MomSense

    @Amir Khalid:

    It’s just like using Green Eggs & Ham about refusing ObamaCare. In the end Sam I Am tries green eggs and ham and likes it.

  94. 94.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Amir Khalid:

    The weird thing about callimg Obama “Obambi” to feminise him is that, as anyone who has seen the movie will remember, Bambi is male and at the end defeats a rival in combat to become the most macho stag in the forest.

    These are the same people who think Nazis are awesome because of 1940 and refuse to consider what happened to the Nazis in 1945.

  95. 95.

    Platonailedit

    So much for adults being in charge.

    Defense Sec. Mattis is increasingly out of the loop and Trump doesn’t listen to him, current and former officials tell NBC News.

    In May, Mattis learned from a colleague—not Trump himself—that Trump had decided to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. https://t.co/fg2X9OtqGz

    — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) June 25, 2018

  99. 99.

    Chief Oshkosh

    Where are the infants and toddlers? Where are the girls? Sorry if I’m behind, but has anyone given verifiable answers?

  100. 100.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @schrodingers_cat: Doom and despair are the only sentiments allowed on the Daily Dirge.

    I really enjoy reading your perspective, but that comment is patently untrue. Some people here are more upbeat, others are more pessimistic. Occasionally events get even the more upbeat people down and they express worry and fear. It’s called being human. You were right in calling out the danger of the generals from the beginning. Does that make you a doom and gloomer…or someone with a keener, more realistic vision? Sometimes it seems you let your sense of personal grievance override your otherwise keen intelligence. That’s not always fun to read either, but I continue to read your comments because they typically provide insight and sometimes lead me to cool Indian movies and music. Peace.

    Edit: Block quote is borked.

  101. 101.

    zhena gogolia

    Chrome on laptop: Won’t save my nym and e-mail. Won’t tell me the correct number comments there are. I have to click on Comments, go to the bottom, and refresh, then new comments appear.

  102. 102.

    Elizabelle

    @schrodingers_cat: The rot at the FTF NYTimes starts in the publisher’s suite. It’s the Sulzbergers, Jake.

    Found it fascinating that, in the Times’ “passing of the torch” story about its new Sulzberger publisher (the son, imagine that), the on his way out “Pinch” would admit to the Jayson Blair scandal. Blair did not get anyone killed.

    But Judith Miller? Not mentioned; not a syllable.

  103. 103.

    Barbara

    @Kay: I don’t expect much from Maureen Dowd, but this was actually a pretty devastating hit on Ivanka Trump. Really, in order for Dowd not to drive you crazy, you have to read her not to be informed, or even to agree with her, but to understand that what she says is just ahead of the curve of popular opinion. She crystallizes the emerging thoughts of average white bread people just as they are coalescing into a kind of conventional wisdom.

  104. 104.

    Elizabelle

    @zhena gogolia:

    There’s a little box, immediately under Name and Email, requesting you check it to save name, etc for next comment

    Let’s see if that makes the difference. Box does not check by default.

  105. 105.

    Elizabelle

    Yup. Check that little box, and for a while, make sure it’s checked before hitting Post Comment.

  106. 106.

    MomSense

    @schrodingers_cat:

    Perhaps you could provide a list of the subjects we are allowed to be concerned about and which words are appropriate and which are doom and gloom.

  108. 108.

    zhena gogolia

    @Elizabelle:

    Doesn’t make a difference. I checked it last night and this morning. Right now it’s saved, I’m not sure why, but it wasn’t before.

  109. 109.

    zhena gogolia

    Please let’s not get into internecine conflict again. We’re all on the same side until it gets close to the election and Vladimir Vladimirovich’s little friends show up.

  111. 111.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Amir Khalid: At some point in the ensuing decades “Bambi” became a stereotypical comedy name you’d give to a dumb sexy woman. I’m not sure how, but I remember that being all over in the 1970s.

  112. 112.

    Elizabelle

    @MomSense: I am going to take a stab at this.

    It seems to me there has been utter hysteria over the border separations. This is not saying they’re not a heinous policy; they should never have happened, and they happened solely because of El Trump. Who kept blaming his actions on Democrats.

    All that aside: notice how Facebook and the liberal blogosphere took off on steroids, with memes about the separations and Jesus, Mary and Joseph crossing into Egypt, and we’re all immigrants, yadda yadda yadda. I have been picking up a distinct “let them all in, or we’re all hypocrites” vibe.

    I can sense manipulation behind the scenes on this one. Played right into libtards’ sense of justice, and trying to get them out onto a limb with “no borders! Let them all in! Open borders.”

    Which is a divisive issue all over the world.

    Do not forget how badly the Bernie Bros got played, with Goldman Sachs Hillary.

    I can see it happening again.

  113. 113.

    Elizabelle

    @Barbara: WRT Dowd and the Vichy Times: I am never sure Dowd is channelling the conventional wisdom, or helping to drive it.

    Further, when opponents try to disparage us all with the “elites” polarizing description: could you be more “elite” than a NY Times Vichy staffer, or a lot of sources? Going to the nerd prom. Getting jobs because of your Ivy education or family and business connections (Hello there, stenographer Maggie.)

    Odd, isn’t it, how their political desk is pretty much from Politico and very much wired for Republicans. Jeremy Peters, whitewashing Trump supporters through the pages of the Vichy Times.

  114. 114.

    Brachiator

    @Elizabelle:

    It seems to me there has been utter hysteria over the border separations.

    Perhaps “hysteria” is the appropriate response. These monsters are still separating children from parents without a clear method of reuniting them, and without any change in policy.

    This is government sanctioned kidnapping.

  115. 115.

    Barbara

    @Elizabelle: Dowd is not powerful enough to drive public opinion. She crystallizes what people are thinking. I don’t know how she does it, exactly, and it’s not like she’s perfect but she’s close enough most of the time that it feels a little uncanny at times.

    ETA: I just really don’t find it useful to complain about the MSM or the NYT. It doesn’t bother me that others do but I just can’t obsess about the message behind the message. Which is all by way of saying that I am not going to respond directly to your comment.

  117. 117.

    Barbara

    @Brachiator: Ditto, times 100. The “hysteria” is justified. They are SEPARATING parents and children WITHOUT ensuring that they can be reunited. They are doing so on the flimsiest of justifications, that the parent has committed a crime (a misdemeanor, for which they have not been convicted) and they are sending children all over the country. This is not the same thing as hateful rhetoric. It is not the same thing as calling people animals. It is treating people as animals.

  118. 118.

    Brachiator

    @Barbara:

    I don’t expect much from Maureen Dowd, but this was actually a pretty devastating hit on Ivanka Trump.

    Down spent a chunk of her early career following Trump for the society side of the paper. She probably knows a good deal of dirt about Trump which she has never revealed because of “journalistic ethics.” And yet somehow she never saw what a dirt bag he was. This alone makes me doubt any credibility she might have with respect to Ivanka or anyone else.

    RE: ETA: I just really don’t find it useful to complain about the MSM or the NYT

    I agree. The Times has always been the Establishment newspaper. And this works both for them and against them. But I think that the current editors are incompetent.

  119. 119.

    Elizabelle

    @Brachiator: Resistance and opposition is the appropriate response. You’ll notice we and other resisters helped separate Trump, Sessions, Nielsen, Stephen Miller, from his silently enabling Republican congresscritters and senators.

    Hysteria can be channeled badly once it’s fomented, so watch out.

  121. 121.

    Barbara

    @schrodingers_cat: Well I hope you keep commenting, but I would just like to say that you express your share of doom and gloom, usually about the MSM. I agree with you on the doom and gloom, by the way, but when I see it going in that direction, I opt out or just don’t comment. It’s frustrating, to see my safe space not being safe or at least not imparting the kind of support I want. It’s so easy to become Debbie Downer . . . Sometimes that’s what people need, and when they need that and you need something else it’s a bummer.

  123. 123.

    Barbara

    @Brachiator: Journalistic ethics and, you know, evidence and documentation of the kind that rises above rumor, even well-placed rumor.

  125. 125.

    rikyrah

    Let’s be appreciative for the simple things – like it’s good cherry season, and one can snack on beautiful, sweet cherries :)

  126. 126.

    Barbara

    @Elizabelle: You know, I actually resent that kind of comment. We need to “watch out” and carefully calibrate our conduct so that “resistance” doesn’t spill over into “hysteria,” meanwhile the forces of crimes against humanity just keep racing forward. Point out ONE THING in concrete terms of what you mean by hysteria. Just one.

  128. 128.

    rikyrah

    I believe that those here who are ‘ glass half empty’ people are here to light a fire under the rest of us.
    There’s a difference between ‘ glass half empty’ and trolls.

    Come on, folks.

  129. 129.

    rikyrah

    Good tweets against Huckabeast:

    You’ve been in hiding for a week as your admin kidnaps & incarcerates children in cages, loses track of thousands of babies & children. Your stain of discrimination is everywhere. We’ve also seen the way you treat @Acosta @AprilDRyan, anyone who insists on accountability & truth. https://t.co/HNgfoNyB54

    — meta (@metaquest) June 23, 2018

    Actually, you are extremely rude and condescending to those in the @whca that don’t fit into Trump’s vile racist bigoted misogynist paradigm. You malign everyone who isn’t in goose-step with your hate-filled agenda. It’s all on tape. https://t.co/HNgfoNyB54

    — meta (@metaquest) June 23, 2018

  130. 130.

    Elizabelle

    @Barbara: People saying they hate everyone else because of the family separations.

    I think this is an issue that can be used to deliberately polarize.

    Because Trump and his policies are not popular, and a lot of people are seeing the down effects already. So find something to demoralize folks hugely, and get them tearing each other apart over it.

  132. 132.

    Chief Oshkosh

    I can sense manipulation behind the scenes on this one. Played right into libtards’ sense of justice, and trying to get them out onto a limb with “no borders! Let them all in! Open borders.”

    The only instances of this that I am aware of are rightwing assholes using it as a straw man. Who on the left is calling for open borders?

  133. 133.

    Brachiator

    @Elizabelle:

    Resistance and opposition is the appropriate response.

    Ending this vile program is the appropriate response.

    There is more to be done, and I hope that the anger increases and is channelled to get out the vote in the midterms.

    And the anger should increase if it can prevent Trump from doing more harm to parents and children.

  134. 134.

    rikyrah

    White Extinction Anxiety
    By Charles M. Blow
    Opinion Columnist
    June 24, 2018

    Last week Pat Buchanan was on “The Laura Ingraham Show” to discuss the humanitarian crisis Donald Trump has created at the border by ripping children away from their parents.

    He was not particularly sympathetic to these families’ plights, instead choosing to focus on the demographic danger facing whiteness: “This is the great issue of our time. And, the real question is whether Europe has the will and the capacity, and America has the capacity to halt the invasion of the countries until they change the character — political, social, racial, ethnic — character of the country entirely.”

    He continued: “You cannot stop these sentiments of people who want to live together with their own and they want their borders protected.” Make no mistake here, Buchanan is talking about protecting white dominance, white culture, white majorities and white power.
    ……………………………..

    Strip all the other rationales away from this draconian immigration policy. This is at the core: White extinction anxiety, white displacement anxiety, white minority anxiety. This is the fear and anxiety Trump is playing to. Politico Magazine dubbed Trump “Pat Buchanan With Better Timing.”

    White people have been the majority of people considered United States citizens since this country was founded, but that period is rapidly drawing to a close.

    ……………………………..This is happening. America will soon be a majority-minority country.

    White America is growing older, there are fewer white women of childbearing age, and the white fertility rate is lower than that of Hispanics and blacks.

    All manner of current policy grows out of this panic over loss of privilege and power: immigration policy, voter suppression, Trump economic isolationist impulses, his contempt for people from Haiti and Africa, the Muslim ban, his rage over Black Lives Matter and social justice protests. Everything.

    Trump is president and is beloved by his base in part because he is unapologetically defending whiteness from anything that threatens it, or at least that’s the image he wants to project. It is no more complicated than that. These immigrant children crying out for their mothers and fathers are collateral damage, pawns in a political battle to wring strict legislation out of Congress — medieval torture displays meant to serve as deterrents.

  135. 135.

    Platonailedit

    @Barbara:

    Yup, the rw screams bloody murder everyday and they get covered by msm dutifully. All those ‘shouty’ and ‘shrill’ dems finally got the traitorous thug to back off his horrendous plan. For now at least.

  136. 136.

    rikyrah

    GOP Amendment Would Pull Governor From Elections Board Loop
    Some North Carolina Republican lawmakers are determined to remove the power from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and his successors from appointing the members of the state panel administering elections and ethics laws.
    June 22, 2018, at 7:37 p.m.
    By GARY D. ROBERTSON, Associated Press

    RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — Republican legislators are determined to remove the power from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and his successors to appoint members of the state elections and ethics panel, and are seeking to insert that restriction in the North Carolina Constitution.

    House Republicans late Friday unveiled a proposed constitutional amendment that would put all appointments for the board under the control of the General Assembly. The amendment would have to be approved by voters.

    Cooper currently picks all nine members. For more than 100 years, until recently, the party of the governor held the majority of the seats on the board tasked with administering elections.

    GOP legislators and Cooper have been fighting over the election board’s composition and powers since just after Cooper defeated Republican Gov. Pat McCrory in late 2016. It’s part of a multi-front approach by Republicans to rebalance powers with the governor. Cooper says it’s all been a raw GOP power grab.

    The amendment to be debated early next week in the final days of this year’s work session would establish a constitutional requirement for eight-member board, with no party being allowed to hold a majority of the seats.

  137. 137.

    rikyrah

    Trump boasts he’s ‘gutted’ the ACA, avoids blame for consequences
    06/25/18 09:20 AM
    By Steve Benen

    Donald Trump was in Nevada over the weekend, campaigning in support of Sen. Dean Heller (R), and reflected on the vote Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) cast against the Republicans’ plan to repeal the Affordable Care Act. The president told supporters:

    “It’s all right, because we’ve essentially gutted it anyway.”

    Seven seconds later, Trump added:

    “Just remember, if you see [premiums going up], it is the Democrats’ fault.”

    The president’s supporters cheered with approval, seemingly oblivious to the rhetorical whiplash. Trump is absolutely certain that, in his words, he’s “essentially gutted” the backbone of his own country’s health care system, and he’s equally certain that the consequences of his actions should be blamed on the one group of people who have no control over the levers of federal power.

    There’s no reason for any sensible person to take this seriously, but it is worth understanding why Trump seems a little defensive on the issue.

  138. 138.

    Mnemosyne

    @rikyrah:

    I can’t help but notice that infrequent commenters and at least one known troll showed up first thing this morning to spread some doom n gloom. ?

    It’s not “tone policing” to point that out, IMO.

  140. 140.

    rikyrah

    @Elizabelle:

    Open Borders is a fraudulent choice.

    How about…
    1. Reinstituting the Obama Program that had a 99% show up rate for court cases
    2. How about NOT shutting off the legitimate points of entry where you can declare that you want to apply for asylum
    3. How about NOT taking people’s children away from them.

    All of this happened before this policy.
    I don’t need to go to Open Borders.

  141. 141.

    rikyrah

    @schrodingers_cat:

    I don’t see the reply I did to you.
    So, I’ll say it this way – don’t leave.
    Your opinion is as welcome here as anyone else’s.
    I know the difference between regular folks and trolls.

    Folks – stop allowing phucking trolls to move things here.

  142. 142.

    Jack the Second

    @Chief Oshkosh: I’m personally in favor of completely[*] open borders, but I’m of no consequence.

    [*] I mean, I’m fine with tracking border crossings, and maybe even specific blacklists of eg, saying that Osama bin Laden[**] isn’t welcome or people fleeing international crimes are subject to deportation or local prosecution as appropriate, but would like to eliminate all quotas, remove “illegal border crossing” as even a misdemeanor, and essentially make anyone living here who wants to be a citizen. Hell, if there are oppressed persons halfway around the world whose lives are in danger, who would like to be US citizens, and can get the word out, I’d send the Seals to bring ‘em home the way we do when rich white people get attacked by pirates while yachting.

    [**] Who’s the specific namable scary person now that bin Laden is dead? Putin?

  143. 143.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @Platonailedit:
    It absolutely is the BJ reality. There are those on here that take gallows humor to an extreme and wallow in doom and gloom. Notice how they almost never talk about potential solutions. I see it quite often.

  144. 144.

    rikyrah

    Residents discover railroad owns home, land
    By HALEY BEMILLER, Wausau Daily Herald

    Diane Neumann has owned a house on Depot Street in Schofield since 1994 — or so she thought.

    It turns out her home is split down the middle, and much of it doesn’t belong to her.

    Neumann and her neighbors learned this year that a portion of their properties are owned by the Canadian National Railway, despite the fact that they’ve spent years paying mortgages and property taxes, the USA Today Network-Wisconsin reported. The homes sit just feet away from a set of railroad tracks. But until now, Neumann said, the railroad has never been a problem.

    According to a recent plat survey, the railroad’s land extends along Depot Street starting at Ross Avenue and right through the homes of Neumann and her neighbors. The land where Depot Street sits also belongs to the railroad, not the city.

    Neumann is stuck. She planned to sell the home to her daughter, who has been living there with her family for a few years, but she can’t sell a house that isn’t hers. And based on the survey, Neumann can stake a claim only to part of the kitchen and a back room.

    “They own more than half of my house,” she said.

    ……………………………..

    Turonie said the city caught wind of a potential issue a year ago. The city found records from the mid-1990s indicating that the former owner of the now-abandoned home worked with a private attorney to secure land from the railroad, he said. The railroad wasn’t owned by Canadian National then, and the city wasn’t involved or aware at the time, he said.

  145. 145.

    Elizabelle

    @rikyrah: Yes to all of that.

    And we need to say that, again and again and again. Because, very honestly, it is NOT being said. And I sense us being forced into a choice between A and Z, when there is an incredible amount of middle ground. Binary choices of A and Z are polarizing. It is dangerous to the status quo to have people making common ground.

    PS re the site: it did it again. The “save name and email” function just disappeared, on its own.

    Would that that only worked for trolls and doom and gloomers!

  146. 146.

    MomSense

    @Mnemosyne:

    How about we just ignore the trolls? This is not complicated. We can also choose to ignore regular commenters. Ironically, just ignoring the supposed “doom and gloom” comments would have meant less attention to them.

  147. 147.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Elizabelle:

    It seems to me there has been utter hysteria over the border separations.

    Perhaps others have already got to this, but kindly explain what you mean by “hysteria.” I see people expressing horror over a systematic program by our government of kidnapping thousands of children (with apparently no established means of reuniting them with their families, so the separation could be permanent for at least some), I see people writing appropriately strong opinions about it, I see people signing petitions and participating in marches, I see people offering fact-checked analyses of immigration trends…which of these is hysteria? For myself, I can’t imagine being calm about this policy, which is a government-sanctioned form of child abuse and will traumatize these children for life. So, I guess I’m opting for hysteria, if that’s what the above actions are deemed to be. I have avoided talking about the tone police until today, but really?

    As zhena gogolia wisely said, please, let’s avoid these internecine fights. I hates’em, but as an abuse survivor, I will not be silent when others are made to suffer.

    Edited.

  148. 148.

    Elizabelle

    @Barbara: Not sufficiently concrete. OK, I will keep an eye for specific examples. Although got to head out for a while shortly.

  149. 149.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @MomSense:
    What annoys me are comments that never try to find solutions to our problems and just essentially read like a prole from 1984, believing nothing will ever change.

  151. 151.

    Elizabelle

    @O. Felix Culpa: I will answer you in private, later. Not kidding about needing to head out. (My sister is helping me move some too heavy for me furniture, with a pickup. Cannot let that resource get away.)

  153. 153.

    Mnemosyne

    @Elizabelle:

    And I sense us being forced into a choice between A and Z, when there is an incredible amount of middle ground.

    Welcome to modern American politics, where the people who wanted universal healthcare were accused of wanting “death panels” to kill old people.

    Don’t buy into right-wing framing. What we want is a return to Obama’s policies, but the right-wing is going to call that “open borders” regardless of reality. It’s. What. They. Do.

  155. 155.

    MomSense

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?:

    Bullshit. There is also a certain benefit to pointing out aspects of problems that are not discussed anywhere else.

    Also too some of the thousands of children stolen from their parents will never be reunited or recovered. I learned this morning that this policy likely started months before Sessions made the announcement so we don’t actually know how many children have been taken.

    I’m not going to sugarcoat this. This is a fucking tragedy.

    Like I have said consistently, no matter how bad we feel or how bad things are, take one action every day. This is what I do. If you want me to blow sunshine up your ass, I don’t have the time for that.

  156. 156.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Mnemosyne:

    Don’t buy into right-wing framing. What we want is a return to Obama’s policies, but the right-wing is going to call that “open borders” regardless of reality. It’s. What. They. Do.

    Thank you. No one at the march I attended in Tornillo mentioned open borders. Not one official speaker. Not one candidate. Not one spokesperson from the major immigrants rights organizations. Not one sign, as far as I saw. It’s a straw man argument. Why is it even being brought up? Protecting the children and their families are what it is and should be about. The rest is noise.

    ETA: Honestly, that we’re even having this discussion has me in tears. I’m going back to my gardening and hysteria-fueled organizing, if that’s what it’s considered. Got too much work to do to be demoralized by our own side.

  157. 157.

    Brachiator

    @Elizabelle:

    It seems to me there has been utter hysteria over the border separations.

    BTW. All the hysteria that I’ve seen has been coming from Trump, who acts like a whiny little bitch as he demonizes children and treats them like non-persons.

    .

  158. 158.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @MomSense:
    I don’t want sunshine “blown up my ass”. I know things are bad. I get angry when I see what is happening, especially seeing kids in cages in these concentration camps. I guess I need to be confident that things will change. That evil will be defeated and this nightmare will end. I can handle hearing bad news. What I don’t like is hearing that evil will triumph no matter what we do. Or at least when that impression is given (not saying you do).

  159. 159.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Elizabelle:

    memes about the separations and Jesus, Mary and Joseph crossing into Egypt

    Popping back in to say guilty as charged and without apology. I posted Giotto’s Flight into Egypt because I have many contacts in the Christian world, including some evangelicals, and I’m trying to speak in pictures and language they might connect with. I think there’s a reasonable analogy to be made and if I can change one heart, one mind, I’m glad of it.

  160. 160.

    Elizabelle

    @Mnemosyne: My issue is not right-wing framing.

    It’s left-wing framing. Watch out, because we paid a heavy price for that last election cycle.

  161. 161.

    NotMax

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    Try to do my best to ignore trolls and the Chicken Littles (exception made when stark violence is advocated or predicted as the only solution).

    But then, my capacity for ignorance is fathomless.

    ;)

    Calling out evil and promulgating remedies need not go hand in hand. Nothing wrong with a reasoned, righteous rant.

  162. 162.

    Miss Bianca

    @Elizabelle: You know, your harping on “Open Borders” is starting to seem an awful lot like concern trolling. Seriously, what is up with that? And accusing us of “hysteria” on the issue of breaking up migrant families? That’s a very, *very* charged word to use – sexist as hell, and really rather insulting. And this “oh, they’re coming to take our JOBS” schtick – honky, please. Cut it out. You’re sounding like a right-winger. Did an immigrant kick sand in your face on the beach or something?

  164. 164.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @Brachiator:
    It means that deep down I’m afraid that despite my and others efforts things will continue to deteriorate and get worse. And that things could get so bad that I might die. That’s what I mean.

  166. 166.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?:

    It means that deep down I’m afraid that despite my and others efforts things will continue to deteriorate and get worse. And that things could get so bad that I might die. That’s what I mean.

    I understand those fears. I suspect all of us share them at some time or another (and I know that all of us will die eventually, but I’d rather not do so because of T’s political malice and malpractice). Beyond myself, I fear for my children and my as-yet hypothetical grandchildren. So, while understandable because our own fears might be triggered, it’s not fair to jump on commenters who occasionally voice those fears too and label them as doom and gloomers (differentiating from those who are known trolls). We all have different areas of sensitivity and different breaking points. Let’s honor that in one another and move on. There’s important work to be done.

  167. 167.

    waysel

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?: So just be annoyed. Not all BJ comments will meet your high personal standards of optimism and usefulness. Despondency is one possible rational response to realistically viewing of our current situation. No one is obligated to reply to every comment they find annoying. It doesn’t even seem like you try to ‘find solutions’ for people lost in pessimism. This comment applies to a number of other BJ stalwarts as well. Not posting a reply is one of the easier actions one might ever take.

  168. 168.

    Mnemosyne

    @Elizabelle:

    Except that NO ONE on the left is calling for open borders. No one. I’ve heard lots of accusations from the right wing that Democrats “want open borders,” but not ONE SINGLE DEMOCRAT has said that.

    It’s right-wing framing, and you believe them. And yet when I pointed out the right-wing framing of comparing a speeding ticket to an illegal border crossing — a comparison that Stephen Miller echoed in an interview — you said I was conflating too much and the two things totally aren’t the same. ?

    You’re renting space in your head to the right wing and repeating their memes. Stop it. You’re smarter than that.

  169. 169.

    Elizabelle

    @Miss Bianca: It’s not concern trolling. That’s a convenient way to avoid looking at issues that concern another, isn’t it?

    I had expected better of you, but perhaps you expected better of me too.

  170. 170.

    Brachiator

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?:

    It means that deep down I’m afraid that despite my and others efforts things will continue to deteriorate and get worse. And that things could get so bad that I might die. That’s what I mean.

    Things are already pretty fucking bad for a lot of people. And may get worse if they don’t get some relief.

    Fear is understandable. As is caution. The question remains, what will you do if the opportunity arises?

  171. 171.

    Elizabelle

    @Mnemosyne: I have worked as an immigration paralegal. Loved the job, the chance to do meaningful good. It was exhilarating. I mean to dip back into that profession, and have some other ideas on how I can be useful.

    However, I have also seen the use and purposeful misuse of that system. It is troubling.

    I sent an email to your gmail account some time ago. I would love to stay in touch with you and schrodinger’s cat, because I am just about out of here. I sent the email to you on May 25. It is headlined Hello from Elizabelle.

  172. 172.

    Brachiator

    @Elizabelle:

    It’s left-wing framing. Watch out, because we paid a heavy price for that last election cycle.

    I don’t really see this as an issue. Nor am I particularly bothered by the phony issue of “open borders.”

    Trump has already changed the parameters of the immigration debate. The US is culpable in destabilizing countries and creating massive numbers of refugees, but no one, not even the wildest eyed progressive, is gong to argue that the US should do its damn duty and admit refugees from Africa or the Middle East. And certainly, no current political candidate will suggest it.

    Trump’s harping on “merit based” immigration is complete and total bullshit. And yet there are plenty of politicians and pundits who accept this “resume centered” immigration policy, or will meekly suggest that it is worthy of debate.

    Fuck, we still have “open borders” for Cuban refugees, but closed borders for everybody else.

    There is a lot of discussion about immigration that is not happening, and will not be allowed to happen as long as Trump is bloviating about evil immigrants.

    This worries me much more than fears about “left wing framing.”

  173. 173.

    J R in WV

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    I think chain saws have rendered Adzes obsolete. The people i know who build log cabins mostly use a small chain saw to cut notches and adjust log shapes and sizes to fit tightly.

  174. 174.

    ? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?

    @Brachiator:
    I think if it came down to it, I could defend someone from Trump’s goons (fans). That’s one thing I think I could do. I could stand up to them.

  175. 175.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Elizabelle:

    I have worked as an immigration paralegal. Loved the job, the chance to do meaningful good. It was exhilarating. I mean to dip back into that profession, and have some other ideas on how I can be useful.

    However, I have also seen the use and purposeful misuse of that system. It is troubling.

    I hope we can differentiate between children being ripped from their parents and misuse of the immigration system. Two different issues entirely.

  177. 177.

    Brachiator

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?:

    I think if it came down to it, I could defend someone from Trump’s goons (fans). That’s one thing I think I could do. I could stand up to them.

    And that may be the thing that makes all the difference in the world.

  179. 179.

    TenguPhule

    @? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?:

    I guess I need to be confident that things will change. That evil will be defeated and this nightmare will end.

    This isn’t a fairy tale. You go into this fight knowing that yes, evil can win, has won before and only has to succeed one more time to bring this nation into a burning ruin.

    You fight knowing that we might not win this and fight harder knowing that people will suffer horribly and die in agony if we lose.

  180. 180.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Elizabelle: Today’s discussion has caused me pain and dismay. I’ll talk about what motivates me. I am appalled by our government deliberately traumatizing thousands of children for life, right now, in real time. This trauma will never go away, never be fully healed. These children are experiencing wrenching terror and betrayal, right now, in real time, which will harm their physical and emotional development, damage brain chemistry, and inhibit healthy attachment for the rest of their lives. I will oppose that abuse in our country’s name with all my might.

    In addition, their parents are also feeling indescribable terror, not knowing where their children are, whether they’re being cared for, whether they will ever see them again. One of my sons got lost in a big box store when he was little. That scalding explosion of fear when you realize your child is missing is not a feeling I’d wish on anyone. I was lucky: my little space cadet was quickly found. These poor parents have to live with a burning sword through their hearts for who knows how long and with possibly no resolution, ever. I will oppose that abuse in our country’s name with all my might. I call it a passion for justice, our common humanity, compassion, and decency, I don’t like it being called hysteria, because it feels like their pain and the dismay that many of us feel on their behalf and the cruelty of our government’s actions are being diminished.

    You have been a valued commenter to me. I’m stepping out of this conversation now because I need to focus on positive action and foster a positive spirit within myself, for my own well-being and effectiveness. Namaste.

  181. 181.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Elizabelle: It seems to me that when we advocate some middle ground, that becomes the new extreme, and the new middle ground becomes the middle between our middle ground and their extreme. Repeat ad nauseam and you end up completely capitulating Zeno’s Paradox style, because the other side will not give an inch if we’re willing to yield everything.

    Advocate the extreme, and we might someday actually get the middle ground as a compromise. Classic Overton Window stuff.

    Do I advocate open borders? Eh, I dunno, probably not. The current situation is so tyrannical that it’ll be a long, long time before the fine details of what I advocate really matter. In the meantime I really don’t want to be debating with myself.

  182. 182.

    terry chay

    @Pangloss: Your numbers are way off. His approval numbers have been going up amongst his base but it’s not near 90% (it’s like high 70’s) and it is because less people are identifying as Republican so those that do are shifting the numbers in that crosstab. The lack of identification and self-selection hasn’t been caught up to in the polling weights thus making it look like his overall approval is increasing when what you are seeing is a decrease of enthusiasm for the President.

    This lagging indicator adjustment is why historically (e.g. 2006, 2010, 2012) mid-term polling has been terrible, but consistently wrong in the same direction (against the party with the President).

    Basically what is going on is that the only people who identify as Republican bothering to answer pollsters are Trumpers. Regular Republicans are either not responding or are no longer self-identifying. His higher approval with his base is a sign of an unprecedented demoralization of the Republicans heading into midterms. Yes, it’s always been bad for the President’s party, but it has never been this bad. Even the 2006 (largest Democratic wave) or the 2010 wave (largest Republican wave) has not been close to this bad. Unfortunately, back then there’s been little-to-no polling of special and gubanatorial elections don’t have accurate data saying how bad (we can only look at election results). But I’ll take a stab.

    Where this gets borne out is when you look at special election data. That shows real enthusiasm (as measured by voting) and it has been polling an ahistorical +13-17 point shift toward the party out of power Using the pessemistic +13 and discounting the special election as “special” we still have a net +11 overall shift toward the Democrats nationally (=+10 point overall vote), taking into account gerrymandering biased, we can reduce that to a +7 point effective Democratic win is even stronger than the 2006 Democratic wave (which was, for reference a +6 overall vote with the assumption that the gerrymandering bias was, at most, maybe +1 point toward the Republicans).

    But it’s actually worse than that (for the Republicans). The 2016-2018 shift during special elections is largest among the districts that leaned most heavily Republican (another indicator that Trumps improving “approval numbers” are because traditional Republicans are no longer identifying as Republican and are demoralized by President Trump). This means that it’s possible that the congressional gerrymandering lean is actually not +4 Republican but actually +0 or possibly a Democratic lean (because the models used to gerrymandering have backfired in the 8 years since the census).

    In a normal world of an educated electorate, the Republicans, a party of traitors, would be completely wiped out. But even a pessimistic reading says that 2018 will be the largest Democratic (congressional) wave in Post WW2 history,

  183. 183.

    Elizabelle

    @Matt McIrvin: This is a dead thread, and I don’t know if you will see my comment, but I want to thank you for taking my comment in the spirit in which it was made. You have raised a very good point about the Overton window, and the nature of our opponents.

    Mostly, I want to thank you for being kind, which is a marvelous trait, and apparently one in short supply.

    @terry chay: And I liked your comment too. I think you are right.

    Best wishes.

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