It's a noisy indicator so check back in 2 weeks but the generic ballot is the best it's been in a while for Dems. Doesn't really match the narrative where various issues (Immigration! Incivility! Ocasio-Cortez!) are supposed to be causing problems for 'em. https://t.co/nSPeKmDTNc pic.twitter.com/XTtgLlvLg8
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 10, 2018
Odd use of a ?. Story here is not #DemsInDisarray. It’s 8+ point leads for Dems in Trump states of OH/WV/MI/PA/MT/WI/AZ. All the small single digit races in these could easily go one way in Wave (that’s why it’s called a wave). https://t.co/d3UAA8UK62
— Nick Gourevitch (@nickgourevitch) July 10, 2018
This district has been in Republican hands for decades and, even before this official withdrawal of support, the GOP had been effectively writing it off. Remarkable sign of the bad cycle for Rs. https://t.co/tk1NZ0aSL6
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) July 10, 2018
A majority of Americans now say the Supreme Court should base its rulings on what the Constitution means today, representing a shift in public opinion. https://t.co/3BCGNg6VLg pic.twitter.com/Dba5jxOdTq
— Pew Research Center (@pewresearch) July 8, 2018
Pete Mack
Grrr. Why post a cover of “first we take Manhattan”, when it’s not necessary? Leonard Cohen was a musical and poetic god who never got enough recognition. And I suspect this song in particular was partially inspired by this. And yes there are dozens of covers of this song, though not so many as there are of Hallelujah. But he sang it better than REM ever did.
raven
@Pete Mack: Because it not YOUR post. Don’t be sweatin my homeboys, dork.
The Ancient Randonneur
@raven:
Good morning. Have you decided how you will travel from Logan to Providence yet?
OzarkHillbilly
The ego on this mf’er. And people are just supposed to take his word for the miracles his technology can accomplish at a time when the slightest mistake can kill. Just like the so called “autopilot” on his cars.
Anne Laurie
@Pete Mack:
It’s one of my favorite Cohen songs, and I’ve used both his & Jennifer Warnes’ versions here before. (IIRC, Mr. Cohen said he preferred the Warnes/Vaughn version to his own… )
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone ???
Shalimar
a href=”#comment-6941737″>OzarkHillbilly: If there are subject matter experts on the use of mini-submarines in cave rescues, I am almost positive Elon Musk is not one of them.
“Thank you for letting me test my new toy. Sorry everybody died. The data we gained is going to make it more effective next time.”
raven
@The Ancient Randonneur: Funny you should ask! I rented a car. The reunion is Saturday night and I don’t fly out until later Sunday afternoon so I decided I wanted to drive around and see stuff!
David Evans
Late to the party, but I think Jennifer Warnes has the best version of this song. Also, Famous Blue Raincoat. Mmmm
Baud
@rikyrah: Good morning.
Quinerly
Glad to see this getting some press. I saw the video on Monday and cried:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/10/us/illinois-puerto-rico-park-officer/index.html
Schlemazel
@OzarkHillbilly:
The guy is an inflamed asshole, his ego could not fit in that cave. When you look at the “technical” stuff he does you will not see anything new there. He is trying to pull a Steve Jobs, take others work, put a lot of marketing behind it and making HIM the big deal. He has a legion of fanbois online though & if you dare point this out, particularly if you have examples you will be in for a waterfall of hate
Baud
Between Obamacare’s surge in approval and this, I’m getting tired of a contrian public that doesn’t know what it has until it’s gone.
Quinerly
@rikyrah: Good morning from Poco and his tribe!
The Ancient Randonneur
@raven:
Plenty to see, for sure. Have a great stay.
Steeplejack (phone)
@rikyrah:
Good morning. ☕
raven
@The Ancient Randonneur: Thanks, I went up for this 5 years ago and had a fishing trip rained out. I may poke around and see if there are any short trips I could take out of Narragansett .
OzarkHillbilly
Heh:
The Ancient Randonneur
@raven:
Plenty of fluke, bass and blue are caught on a 4 hour charter this time of year. As a single you should find a spot.
PaulWartenberg
in NATO news, trump has already opened a salvo aimed at Germany, accusing Merkel and that nation of being under Russia’s control.
this is akin to Hannibal Lecter accusing Will Graham of being the cannibal during the first chapter of Red Dragon.
Merkel is not the one with 30 years of business dealings with the Russian Mob.
Germany is not the nation worried about a goddamn Pee Tape.
This is it, folks. trump is nuking NATO from orbit while Putin gets a hard-on thinking up all the ways he will punish Ukraine when he starts his full invasion.
Barbara
@OzarkHillbilly: The golf clubs might have been a clue.
Baud
@PaulWartenberg: Didn’t Ukraine stop cooperating with Mueller under U.S. pressure? Not sure Trump wants to rock that boat.
debbie
@OzarkHillbilly:
He’s got a 15-inch sub?
debbie
@PaulWartenberg:
Why, why, why hasn’t anyone said to Trump’s face that his lack of gratitude for the allies’ support following 9/11 and Bush’s invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan is the real problem, and that he risks a lack of support from the world after the next attack?
Zinsky
The party preference polls are all well and good but it’s all going to come down to the turnout of the 18 to 35 year olds at the polls in November. If youth show up to vote, we can crush this nascent fascism in its infancy. If they stay home, better get ready to leave the U.S., because we are one terrorist attack from losing all of our civil liberties. Poof!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@debbie:
So that’s what the kids are calling it these days…
OzarkHillbilly
@Barbara: The woman appears to be a bit of an airhead. My little sis is like that. It gets comical at times. Good thing she knows how to laugh at herself.
@debbie: There is video of it at the link. It is a rube goldberg collection of bits and pieces slapdashed together by otherwise intelligent engineers who probably have open water experience but are wholly ignorant of what it is like to traverse thru a cave. It’s a joke. (not that the idea doesn’t have possibilities, but this was laughable) And yes, it is larger than 15″.
@Schlemazel: He was wrongfully denied the opportunity to be the hero he deep down to the core of his being knows he is.
OzarkHillbilly
Was going to comment on trump’s pardon of Idaho arsonists but I see Betty already got there and said it far better than I would have.
debbie
@OzarkHillbilly:
This surprised me. It’s not like he doesn’t already have the white supremacist vote already locked up and in his pocket.
rikyrah
@OzarkHillbilly:
This muthaphucka ? ? here!
The nerve ??
OzarkHillbilly
@debbie: The tiger gets cranky if it doesn’t get fed regularly.
Gin & Tonic
@PaulWartenberg: When it comes to the NordStream2 project, Trump’s not wrong.
rikyrah
@Quinerly:
Morning to Poco and the tribe ? ?
Lapassionara
@debbie: He needs to keep them motivated. It would be interesting to know the back story on those pardons. Meanwhile, he is embarrassing the US daily.
WereBear
@OzarkHillbilly: This has almost happened to me. Gray compact cars all look alike these days, and I have actually been tugging on the handle when I noticed bling hanging from the rearview (which I never do.)
Bobby Thomson
What I learned from this is that Silver watches too much Fox News.
Gin & Tonic
@raven: What the randonneur said – there are half-day options out of Point Judith all summer. You’re an early riser, so should be no problem.
rikyrah
THREAD
@atrupar: On CNN, @RajShah45 does not deny that a deal was made between outgoing Justice Anthony Kennedy & Trump about Kavanaugh being K… https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1016659854101041153?s=17
satby
@rikyrah: Good morning ?!
@Baud: how about it? When someone complains to my face I usually ask if they vote Republican normally, and then tell them they’re getting what they voted for. Fortunately, I haven’t ever cared about being popular ???
MattF
Saw an online review of Musk’s latest adventures in car manufacturing, so now I understand much better. He’s not a complete fake, but he vastly overestimates his own competence and vastly underestimates the competence of others. Not a good combination.
Kay
Gross. Such a tiny and exclusive little club.
Bobby Thomson
@Schlemazel:
Oh, yeah. It rivals Cult 45 in its irrationality and imperviousness to facts.
It was deeply irresponsible for him to act as a distraction and Monday morning quarterback everything.
rikyrah
@kylegriffin1: The Trump admin has announced, for the 2nd year in a row, that it’s slashing grants to nonprofits that help people get he… https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1016826905113255936?s=17
OzarkHillbilly
@WereBear: I have done the same with silver Dodge p/us. Many years ago My parents were leaving Powell Hall after a symphony performance. They walked down the street, came to their car, the old man unlocked it and they got in. He was unable to start the car however. No matter how he jiggled the key in the ignition he could not turn it. About this point my mother started noticing that there were things in the car that did not belong to them. They got out, relocked the car and soon found the car that really was theirs just a few more cars down the block.
And neither got arrested for tampering with a vehicle.
satby
@WereBear:,@OzarkHillbilly:
when I was a road warrior, teams of us were sent to each location at once for weeks but we flew home weekends. After about a month, it wasn’t uncommon for people to try to open the rental car they had the week before that someone else now had, or to use their keycard on the hotel room from a previous week.
Baud
@satby: You’re popular with me.
@Kay: Scalia’s kid is a big shot lawyer also. I believe he does anti-labor stuff mostly.
rikyrah
Long thread, but connected all the dots from Kennedy to Kavanaugh . Hope a FrontPager reads it:
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1016825672277397504
ArchTeryx
@Zinsky: “One terrorist attack?” You’re a rose-glassed optimist. We’re going to lose them anyway once this newly minted fascist Supreme Court really gets rolling.
Betty Cracker
@OzarkHillbilly: That’s hilarious!
@rikyrah: So Republican-appointed justices not only get a lifetime job, they get to hand-pick their successors. Another thing someone pointed out on Twitter: when R v W is overturned, four of the five Republican-appointed male justices who vote to strip us womenfolk of bodily autonomy will have been seated by white male presidents who lost the popular vote. We’re ruled by a Christianist bloc whose agenda is not endorsed by most of America. It’s not supposed to work like this, and I don’t see how it’s sustainable long-term.
Peale
@OzarkHillbilly: @Baud: yep. If I didn’t live here, and maybe if I were God, or something like that, I’d be preparing a smiting.
OzarkHillbilly
This gets my nomination for understatement of the year:
MattF
@OzarkHillbilly: “We’ve asked the HR department to review the situation.”
Baud
@Betty Cracker: I think it’s sustainable as long as our side is more worried about making marginal improvements to the Democratic Party than it is fighting fascism.
@Peale: I believe Trump is that smiting.
Baud
@MattF:
“This will be discussed in her semi-annual performance review.”
rikyrah
@Kay:
Kay,
The more that I read about this Kennedy/Kavanaugh thing, I go back to your comments that you always knew that Kennedy was a fake, because of how he treated voting rights.
satby
My god, what a close call! The Guardian reporting the water pumps failed right after the last boy was extracted.
OzarkHillbilly
@MattF: @Baud: I’ll bet she doesn’t get a year end bonus.
Peale
@OzarkHillbilly: a few weeks after I got my Nissan, I also almost picked up an inifinity of the almost same color in a parking lot. I sat in the car and wondered why all the mirrors were wrong. Had the owner left his fob in the car, I probably would have started it.
raven
@The Ancient Randonneur: Yea,, I’m looking a the Francis Fleet site now!
OzarkHillbilly
@Peale: It would be very easy to do.
rikyrah
@satby:
The stars were aligned. They had to be. Simply amazing.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: So one of Steve in the ATL’s friends.
randy khan
It’s kind of funny how long it took the Rs to figure out that the candidate in NJ-2 was a loon, since he’s been pretty open about it from the start. And the guy he’s running to replace was about as moderate as Republicans get these days – among other things he was very unhappy with the Administration’s environmental policies, probably because his district covers about half of the Jersey Shore. (Yes, it’s capitalized. There is only one.)
Betty Cracker
@Baud: Maybe we’ll continue to form circular firing squads as the Republicans build Gilead around us. I don’t think so, though.
dnfree
@David Evans: one of the most touching Cohen songs is the one he and Jennifer Warned co-wrote and she sang, the Song of Bernadette. It expresses life’s regrets so poignantly.
MattF
@Betty Cracker: Me neither. We’re all sensitive to sniping from the holier-than-thou Left, but no one else cares about that. I think it’s much more likely that the height and blueness of the coming wave has been seriously underestimated– but I know by now that wishful thinking is a bad thing.
BlueDWarrior
@Betty Cracker: The next four years will show us the activists who are trying to build functional liberal majorities, and people who just want to be on the left for some misaimed notion of street cred.
? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?
@Betty Cracker:
It’s not.
Gex
@Baud: As is usual, Republican talking points that suggest these things will hurt other people are very popular. The realization that they are among the other people who are going to be hurt is less popular.
germy
MattF
@Gex: Republican talking points are designed to evoke certain emotions. Period. ‘Realizations’, ‘thoughts’, and so forth are not involved.
germy
@MattF:
Resentment, hatred and fear.
Gex
@MattF: So why the change of heart on the ACA and originalism?
BC in Illinois
@WereBear:
@OzarkHillbilly:
Back in the days when I actually lived in Illinois, back in the days before cell phones – – i.e., back in the last century – – I got a call from my daughter at the mall in Belleville, 45 miles away. She had gone shopping with her high school friends and now she couldn’t get into the minivan. It was icy and she couldn’t get the key into the lock. She figured that the keyhole had iced up.
Okay. So I got in my car, picked up a de-icer and began the one hour trip in sort-of icy conditions.
While daughter and her friends were waiting inside the entrance to the mall, they saw someone walk to the van, put in his key, and drive away. “Oh. Maybe that wasn’t your van. Maybe THAT is your van.” Sure enough, another van, same color, who can tell them apart? They then just waited for me to arrive. (Pre-cell phones.) I was more relieved than ticked when I got there.
MattF
@Gex: I guess talking points have a lifetime of a few months. Anything longer than that, you have to be cautious and leave yourself some wiggle room– you wouldn’t want talking points to congeal into policy. That would be an error.
Uncle Cosmo
@WereBear: Happens to me regularly in the ‘hood – neighbor’s Nissan is almost the same color and size as my Kia. I’ve learned to keep the inside slightly messy so I can recognize my wheels by the crap inside…
NotMax
@Uncle Cosmo
Heh. One reason when I took Mom on a car shopping expedition I insisted she opt for a distinctive color.
(Impossible to find a pic on the ‘net that shows the particular color accurately, but the linked one is close.)
stan
Many years ago I had a green Plymouth Volare wagon, back when those were popular cars. I had to replace the driver’s door, so i got a blue one out of the junkyard. I NEVER had a hard time finding that car, and for sure no one else wanted it ;)
Gravenstone
With rental vehicles, I can understand potential confusion. But does NO ONE think to double check their license plates before jumping into a vehicle if there is any uncertainty?
J R in WV
@WereBear:
Wife once was able to unlock the doors of a similar VW to ours, got in, was ready to start up, when she noticed that our trash was missing — in other words, the car was to clean inside to be the one she drove every day, which had many remains of fast-food eaten in the car en route to a newsworthy event.
If it exploded, leaked, caught fire, caved in, or went on strike, she was there. Driving country roads to find the story of the moment. Oh, yeh, prison riots, also too. So a clean VW was NOT her VW.
I expect if her plain old key worked for the door — it would have worked for the ignition switch too. . .
opiejeanne
@OzarkHillbilly: I used to own a white Jeep Cherokee, ’92. So did half of the rest of the world. I unlocked my car with the key one time and the kids piled in, but the key wouldn’t fit into the ignition. Hmm. Then my youngest piped up, “This isn’t our car; it’s too clean!” Our car was parked a little farther down the row.
Ruckus
@Betty Cracker:
The sustainability isn’t an issue to the perps. First, they don’t think about the negatative possibilities of their ideas, they’re convinced they are 100% right at all times. Conservatism doesn’t need reality, cults never do. Second, they don’t actually care if it works, only that the cult rewards them for their devotion to it.
Joseph A. Miller
@Zinsky: We need to spread this around if we want to do something about GOTV. This is really good:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/7/10/1779560/-Do-More-Than-Get-Angry-GET-GOING-Start-HERE-and-TAKE-ACTION