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You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Revenge of the Beancounters Open Thread: Manafort Trial, Day Four

Revenge of the Beancounters Open Thread: Manafort Trial, Day Four

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Paul Waldman, at the Washington Post, on The Perp Whose Name Is Not Spoken:

For some, the most compelling thing about the Paul Manafort trial now going on is the former Trump campaign chairman’s penchant for absurdly expensive yet comically ugly clothing, which prosecutors are introducing into evidence to show the high-flying lifestyle he lived while paying suspiciously little in taxes. But judging by President Trump’s public comments and tweets (“He worked for me for a very short time. Why didn’t government tell me that he was under investigation. These old charges have nothing to do with Collusion – a Hoax!”), the case is a source of profound anxiety…

In other words, if Manafort wins, the trial was incredibly important, but if he loses, it was meaningless. You might argue that Democrats are going to say just the opposite, but that isn’t exactly true. If Manafort is acquitted, they will indeed say that it doesn’t prove much of anything about the broader Russia investigation, because the investigation goes far beyond Manfort. But if Manafort is convicted, they won’t say it proves Trump is guilty, because this trial does indeed not have much to do with the 2016 campaign. And regardless of the outcome, what we’ve learned so far shows that Manafort should never have gotten within a mile of a major party nominee’s campaign, much less been tapped to run it…

But Trump’s real fear is not so much that a Manafort conviction on charges like tax fraud will reflect specifically on him, but that it will go a long way in the public’s mind to validate the Mueller investigation. You could argue that it’s already more than validated, given that Mueller has gotten guilty pleas from multiple Trump aides (Michael Flynn, Rick Gates, George Papadopoulos) and indicted dozens of people on charges related to Russian meddling. But a conviction of Trump’s campaign chairman, even if it’s on charges related to what he was doing before he joined the campaign, will make it even harder than it is now to claim that the investigation should never have begun in the first place and should be shut down immediately. Or as he said Thursday, “Now we’re being hindered by the Russian hoax. It’s a hoax, okay? I’ll tell you what, Russia’s very unhappy that Trump won, that I can tell you.”

And that — the investigation completing its work and putting everything it has learned before the public, both in the courtroom and in some kind of report that winds up getting released publicly — is what has Trump so worried. It’s almost as though he doesn’t want the public to know everything he and the people who worked for him did.

Reader Interactions

109Comments

  1. 1.

    dmsilev

    Well, as one D.J.. Trump pointed out three or four eons ago (aka earlier this week), there are certain similarities between Paul Manafort and Al Capone.

  2. 2.

    Tim C.

    So why doesn’t Trump go for it and do a Saturday Night Massacre Part II: Electric Boogaloo? I mean this as a serious question. His whole internal theory of politics is all he needs is the base. And his base are a bunch of crazy-ass mouth-breathing sociopaths. The whole point of the gerrymander was to win with just the base, so why not go for it? It’s not like congressional Republicans well ever say boo to him about anything, Just do it and hope the media does what it always does and is it’s compliant “both sides” self.

  3. 3.

    Ruckus

    @dmsilev:
    I’m just wondering if Al Capone would have made a better president than the shitgibbon. Really the only possible measurement is up so, yes?

  4. 4.

    Bess

    This trial will establish fact that he was more than broke. Actually in the hole.

    And that might be the basis for the next trial that uses the info from the first conviction to show why he might have sold out to the Russians?

  6. 6.

    Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)

    Yeah, I really don’t get this whole, “The fact that my client was dumb enough to get caught somehow proves he isn’t guilty!” thing. It seems a little far fetched. Giuliani also too seems to be trotting this out. “The president can’t be obstructing justice, since he’s coming right out and saying this shit! How can he be guilty if he’s too dumb to know not to say this openly?” As somebody above says, criminals can be as dumb as a box of rubber hammers.

  7. 7.

    JGabriel

    Justin Jouvenal via Anne Laurie @ Top:

    Paul Manafort’s attorney: If he was intending to break the law, why did he leave “evidence around”

    Wasn’t the most damning evidence the witness testimony from his accountant and vendors? What was Manafort supposed to do, off them?

  8. 8.

    burnspbesq

    “Manafort is so fucked” barely scratches the surface of how fucked he is.

    That email exchange with the accountant is every Revenue Agent’s wet dream.

  9. 9.

    jimmiraybob

    If he was intending to break the law, why did he leave “evidence around”

    One of my first jobs in the high school years was at a gas station. We got robbed one night and the armed robbers left a couple of empty beer cans behind with their fingerprints.

    Now that I reconsider, they were probably innocent.

  10. 10.

    Adam L Silverman

    @dmsilev: That’s because Manafort’s father made his money in Connecticut in construction. The construction trades up and down the northeastern seaboard were under the influence of the Genoveses. Capone was a Genovese. This is all, all of it, about decades worth of the US government ignoring the
    overlaps of organized crime and white collar crime unless violent crimes took place. What makes the President susceptible to influence is that his company, for decades, has been laundering money for organized crime. First for the Italian mob, as documented by Wayne Barrett, and then for the Russian mob after the Russians violently took over from the Italians.
    http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/wayne-barrett-donald-trump-rudy-giuliani-peas-pod-article-1.2776357

  11. 11.

    SFAW

    For what it’s worth, here’s how I see it:
    Two jurors will have their families threatened by persons unknown. The jury will vote 10-2 or 11-1 to convict. Afterwards, other jurors will be interviewed, and will say things like “Yeah, I can’t understand it. Those two guys seemed impervious to reason. They’d say things like ‘Well, I just don’t think he did it.’ and stuff like that. Ity’s almost as if … nah, can’t be, never mind.”

    You heard it here first. (Well, probably not first, because there are one or two of you jackals as cynical as I am.)

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Tim C.: There’s not enough of that base. It’s only about 20% of the overall US population. It moves things from the legitimacy issue we have now into a fully blown legitimacy crisis.

  13. 13.

    SFAW

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The construction trades up and down the northeastern seaboard were under the influence of the Genoveses.

    Oh, bullshit. Next you’ll try to tell us that garbage collection was mob-controlled.

  14. 14.

    Bess

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Could this mean that with a Democratic administration we might see an IRS war on the New York Russian mob? Some payback for 2016 perhaps?

    Or even sooner action if people a could levels down from the top decide on their own to look into certain individuals’ taxes?

  15. 15.

    Adam L Silverman

    @SFAW: If there’s a hung jury, there will be a full blown counterintelligence investigation. I would expect, however, that every juror and every member of every jurors family, is being proactively monitored just by the counterintelligence folks in order to keep this from happening.

  16. 16.

    boatboy_srq

    @Tim C.: I read your descriptor of Lord Dampnut’s base as “crazy-ass-mouth-breathing sociopaths” and I can’t find anything incorrect about that either.

  17. 17.

    Adam L Silverman

    @SFAW: No, that’s the Girl Scouts of America.

    In the case of Manafort’s dad, he was also a local elected official, so he was a twofor for the mob – one of their laundries who was also a member of the local government.

  18. 18.

    Marcopolo

    @Adam L Silverman: So Adam, have you read any of the texts (text threads really) by Lincoln’s Bible such as: https://twitter.com/LincolnsBible/status/1025560009759834117 ?

    Whoever they are, they were the first person who I read who provided the necessary background to understand the Italian/Russian mob backgrounding on Trump.

    Here’s another long thread by them: https://twitter.com/LincolnsBible/status/1003706178805760000

    I have to admit the first time I encountered this line of information I was tempted to lump it in as possible conspiracy theory stuff but the more we learn the more the info and analysis provided seems to be legit.

    Any thoughts on this tweeter?

  19. 19.

    SFAW

    @Adam L Silverman:

    If there’s a hung jury, there will be a full blown counterintelligence investigation.

    Done by whom? If it’s the DOJ, then I am, shall we say, less than sanguine that there will be any kind of consequences. If it’s done by the IC, maybe.

    I would expect, however, that every juror and every member of every jurors family, is being proactively monitored just by the counterintelligence folks in order to keep this from happening.

    I truly hope you are right, but experience (during Shitgibbon’s reign) might call that assessment into question.

  20. 20.

    boatboy_srq

    @Ruckus: Capone handled lawlessness (in his own terms, in his own way, but still), he improved (liquor) international trade (with Canada) and he was a patron of the arts. So, basically, yes he would be an improvement.

    How damning is it that one of the US’ biggest organized crime figures could be both more productive and more law-abiding thwn the current pResident?

  21. 21.

    Tim C.

    @Adam L Silverman: I know that and you know that. Does Trump know that? I mean the internal dynamics of the Trump administration seem to be built on major chunks of unreality, and Trump has clearly talked himself into believing his rants are true, so why not go for it? I know you don’t know the answer anymore than I do, I’m just saying I think there’s some other layers going on here that aren’t visible. Also, I was pretty pleased with myself for the Electric Boogaloo line. Seriously though, does the calculus on this change the day after the midterms?

  22. 22.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Bess: One of the major policy changes that needs to occur should the Democrats take over Congress, is a legislative push to both beef up laws pertaining to white collar crimes and oversight of DOJ and FBI in investigating and prosecuting them. This should also include changes to the laws that allow for the creation and regulation of LLCs so that business partners are off the hook for the bad/criminal acts of their colleagues. They need to once again be made to police themselves. There’s a whole slew of these types of adjustments that need to be made to move us past this mess into a better new normal.

  25. 25.

    SFAW

    @Adam L Silverman:

    No, that’s the Girl Scouts of America.

    Well, sure. More than once I’ve had to buy 20 cases — not boxes — of Do-Si-Dos because, as the young lady selling them said “They’re good insurance against falling down a flight of stairs, or being run over by a garbage truck. If you know what I mean.”

  26. 26.

    Marcopolo

    In other news I did election protection training last night and will be working as a poll monitor in the MO primary here next Tuesday. As it is a primary and voting should not be too too heavy we were told not to expect a lot of problems to crop up. But we had a new photo ID law go into effect in July 2017 and this is the first election with US House & Senate seats up for grab since then. I actually think next Tuesday will be a bit of a dry run for November so it will be interesting to see what crops up. Our big statewide issue on the ballot is a vote on whether or not MO becomes a right-to-work state. All indications right now are that we do not.

  30. 30.

    cain

    @Tim C.:
    I’m sort of wondering the same? It seems that for Republicans everything is palatable? So why not just do it and then get your buddies at Fox and the RWNM geared up. The Democrats have no power at the moment. The only reason I can tell is that the midterms are coming up and making such a move could move the needle significantly.

  31. 31.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Marcopolo: It’s a rabbit hole. I think parts of it are accurate and parts of it are sheer speculation. We have enough open source news reporting, starting with Barrett’s coverage of Trump in the 80s and then moving directly through to David Cay Johnson and Tim O’Brien and Gwenda Blair and Harry Hurt and Michael D’Antonio that cover all of this in depth to allow us to draw reasonable conclusions.

    For instance, it would not surprise me in the least that the President’s grandfather might have been paying protection to the Camorra and then other Italian organized crime figures, as well as laundering some money for them, given he was running a brothel in their territory, but I’m not sure there’s enough evidence to conclude he was a full on Camorra front.

  32. 32.

    boatboy_srq

    @Matt McIrvin: I can’t help thinking that all the CDS/ODS/HDS of the past quarter century derives directly from behaviors like Manafort’s. The Reifhwing is so convinced of their intellectual superiority and Divine Election that when Dems succeed it has to be because they are criminals; and when the Reichwing (out of self-defense) turns to crime to even the odds they don’t have to be careful because those lazy, inept Other People® across the aisle are getting away with it and they aren’t as capable.

  33. 33.

    Marcopolo

    @Bess: One of the things commenter Kay likes to mention every so often is that as a nation we could probably avoid situations like Trump becoming president if our law enforcement agencies spent as much time and resources on white collar crime as they do on run of the mill stuff. There are more than a few folks out there who point out the nexus of white collar crimes like money-laundering with the Mob and that because bringing those cases to trial does take more work (resources) they only tend to get involved when there are violent acts associated with the underlying white collar crimes.

    The tweeter I linked above carries this a step further and says that the concentration of wealth (and associated corruption) that has resulted from organized crime over the past century or so first under the Italians and now under the Russians should probably be considered a national security issue–they consider Russia to be completely under the control of organized crime (Putin) and that various pieces of our political establishment are as well. I don’t know enough to go that far but I do believe, along with Kay, that seriously going after white collar crime would be a great thing to happen.

  34. 34.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Tim C.: All I can figure is that, in some deep fundamental sense, Trump is chicken. It’s certainly not moral scruples; he’d surely talk your ear off about how he certainly has the right and the power to do it. While not necessarily doing it.

  37. 37.

    Adam L Silverman

    @SFAW: Domestic counterintelligence is run by the National Security Division of the DOJ and FBI. It is backstopped by the NSA, DNI, and, when necessary, the CIA, FINCEN at Treasury, and other Federal law enforcement and intelligence agencies. This stuff is done by professional, career prosecutors, special agents, and analysts.

  38. 38.

    Mike in NC

    Manafort has a mug that screams “mafia hitman”. He could have done well in Hollywood.

  39. 39.

    Omnes Omnibus

    I have railed against negativity on this site before (sometimes with ugly results), but I just realized that the real problem on our side is cynicism. It is the first cousin to the Cult of the Savvy. “Yes, we can” was Obama’s motto for a reason. It worked. It still can.

  40. 40.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Tim C.: My understanding from the reporting is that, for now, it has been successfully impressed upon the President that taking such action would be very, very bad for him. How long that remains impressed upon him is anyone’s guess. I suspect if it rains almost the entire time during his 11 day vacation at his Bedminster golf club, which began today, so that he can’t get out and golf, we could be in for a wild ride.

  41. 41.

    Immanentize

    @schrodingers_cat: This is the kind of comment that makes me vow to work against you ever being offered a front page posting place. You are really messed up, bitter, and enjoy attacking others without proof, hyperbolically, and with ad hominems.

    Sleep well, all.

  43. 43.

    Adam L Silverman

    @SFAW: I drove past a mobile Girl Scout store on my way to the gym. I think I gained ten lbs just being in the next lane to that many cookies!

  46. 46.

    randy khan

    The line from his defense lawyer is a hoot – the reason many criminals get caught is that they’re stupid enough to leave evidence in plain sight (sometimes literally). I mean, we’ve all heard the stories about idiots who posted video of their crimes on Facebook or Instagram.

  48. 48.

    Mike in NC

    @Adam L Silverman: An 11 day vacation, as opposed to his normal 30 days per month vacation at taxpayer expense. For most of my career I couldn’t ask for vacations because I was a reservist who usually was gone from work for 2-3 weeks every year, and few employers were happy to allow any additional time off. Support for the guard and reserve was a joke.

  51. 51.

    Amir Khalid

    @JGabriel:
    Don’t forget that Paul Manafort knowingly associates with people who do indeed consider offing witnesses an option.

  55. 55.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @waratah: a couple of the MSNBC formerfederalprosecutors were having a kind of a one-upsman contest about how late in the game a deal can be reached, and based on my watching of many television dramas about lawyers, you can reach a plea agreement even when the jury is about to come in with a verdict. But that verdict is always not guilty.

  56. 56.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mnemosyne: I don’t actually remember having that discussion. I do remember having to explain to someone what the clip was from.

  59. 59.

    Mnemosyne

    I probably shouldn’t go to Daiso tomorrow on my way back from my writers group, but I probably will. That place is irresistible.

    (For those unfamiliar with its wonders, Daiso is a Japanese dollar store with dangerously cheap and cute stuff: http://www.daisoglobal.com)

  60. 60.

    oldgold

    @waratah:

    No. He still could and in a non-Trumpian world, he would. But, after reading Trump’s Capone tweet, I doubt he will. The fix is in. That tweet was the equivalent of “Russia if you are listening.” Nothing short of sinister and transparent corruption.

  62. 62.

    Mary G

    @Adam L Silverman: I would like the Dems to pass a law that requires a lot more transparency, both as to who is buying all this real estate, and who is donating to the 501(c)4 “charities” that dump so much money into the right wing.

  66. 66.

    The Dangerman

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Balloon Juice After Dark presents the Firm Scouts in Wanna Buy Some Cookies?

    Someplace in the San Fernando Valley, someone is going “fine idea”…

  67. 67.

    smike

    IANAL or a Russian asset, but I believe he still has time for a deal. However, due to previous obligations/alliances, he may not have a choice. Stay alive and go to jail, or…

  69. 69.

    smike

    @waratah:
    IANAL or a Russian asset, but I believe he still has time for a deal. However, due to previous obligations/alliances, he may not have a choice. Stay alive and go to jail, or…

  71. 71.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mary G: I would like them to pass a law forcing people to buy me real estate and to donate to me rather than 501(c)4 charities.

  72. 72.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mnemosyne: No one actually dies in that cartoon.

    And I figured it would go over better than my stating that the woman in that video is stunning looking, which she is.

  73. 73.

    Mnemosyne

    @Amir Khalid:

    Yes! I live near the San Gabriel Valley where there are tons of Asian-Americans and Asian immigrants, so we’ve been getting a lot of the Asian chain stores. Bill lives in the city that had the first US outlet of Paris Baguette. I’m also going to hit Maido, Miniso, and possibly Muji in the same mall.

  74. 74.

    Mnemosyne

    @Adam L Silverman:

    VFX Lurker knows Little Tokyo better than I do. She would probably know where to go.

    I’m being lazy and going to the Santa Anita mall, where the parking is better.

  76. 76.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mnemosyne: I’m kidding. I don’t really need a three foot long curved razor sharp blade mounted on a five foot pole. But that doesn’t mean I don’t want one!!!

  78. 78.

    trollhattan

    @Amir Khalid:
    Daiso is quite the thing here, they have at least a couple dozen in Calif alone and there is even a Daiso section in our little neighborhood Japanese grocery.

  80. 80.

    The Dangerman

    @Mnemosyne:

    ….San Gabriel Valley where there are tons of Asian-Americans and Asian immigrants…

    Could help explain a Chinese Place I hit in Montrose a few weeks ago; New Moon, IIRC. Fantastic place and not too pricey. I love my home area, but the choices of restaurants, particularly ethic restaurants, pretty well blows. Now, if you are talking BBQ, we have that covered wall to wall, but ethnic, not so much…

  82. 82.

    SFAW

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Who needs threats? All Manafort needs is for one of them to be a Republican.

    Good point. I had a temporary lapse into pre-2016 selective thinking.

  84. 84.

    Adam L Silverman

    @trollhattan: Properly taken care of, they’ll last for generations. Doesn’t mean I don’t want to add to the Arsenal of Freedom collection.

  85. 85.

    normal liberal

    @Mnemosyne:
    Wow, the website is both charming and terrifying. I did like the corporate vision:”Constant self-denial, to improve stores and products.” Not sure how that lines up with the merchandise, which seems to have its own mission.
    My war on clutter is simplified by not having Muji handy.

  89. 89.

    The Dangerman

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:

    I think they have an old bar from a place in Chinatown that was torn down.

    Well, that explains some things: I can’t recall ever being in a Chinese Place with such a large bar area. Then again, see above, Chinese places around me kinda leave a lot to be desired. Oh, for a good Chinese Buffet someplace close!

    Man can’t live on BBQ alone. OK, there’s some decent Sushi here, too. Man can’t live on BBQ and Sushi alone!

  90. 90.

    Yarrow

    @waratah:

    I served on a criminal jury once and when all the jurors were chosen they decided to go with the judge and not us jurors. I always wondered how bad did we look.

    Me too! Except we didn’t even get that far. We were still in the jury panel stage, they sent us out for a break and then told us the defendant had looked at us and decided to go with the judge. We all thought we must have looked really bad.

  91. 91.

    Mnemosyne

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:

    The one on Pacific closed down? That whole stretch of Pacific seems to be having some issues. I blame the traffic — the street needs a serious road diet.

  92. 92.

    SFAW

    @Mnemosyne:

    Not directed at you, by the way, but: Not that anybody gives a shit, since cynics sind am strengsten verboten around here, but I don’t necessarily think Manafort’s going to walk (a la hung jury), despite my “You heard it here first” jape. However, it would surprise me not one iota if a mistrial (or whatever the proper term is) is declared because some non-zero quantity of jurors do the “well, I JUST DON’T KNOW!” thing.

    And after all the contrary-to-rationality, shitty things we’ve seen in the last three years, anyone who would be surprised by Manafort walking, just hasn’t been paying attention.

  93. 93.

    Mnemosyne

    @The Dangerman:

    I’ve never been to New Moon, but I’ve driven by it many a time. Black Cow is another good restaurant in Montrose — it’s next to the barbeque place. ?

    @normal liberal:

    If you like adorable stationery items, Daiso is incredibly dangerous. I’m not sure what I’m going to do with my sea otter page markers and index stickers, but I bought them anyway.

  95. 95.

    Jay

    @Timurid:

    To restate again, The Insane Clown Potus can’t “your fired” Meuller.

    Recused KKKebler Elf Sessions can’t fire Meuller.

    Only Rosenstien can fire Meuller.

    The Insane Clown Potus can fire KKKebler Elf Sessions, but he won’t, because KKKebler Elf Sessions was part of the Transition Team and has lots and lots of Sexxxy Russian Colusion Dirty on The Insane Clown Potus.

    Were The Insane Clown Potus to decide that KKKebler Elf Sessions is less dangerous than Meuller, he could “your fired” KKKebler Elf Sessions, ( it would be his first “your fired” eveah!)

    He could try to appoint a New AG through nominations, but that would take months if it ever passes,

    He could slide somebody over who’s already appointed, but their term is limited.

    That appointee could your fired Rosenstein, but Rosenstien’s vacancy get’s filled by the next JDA on the seinority list. That appointee would have to your fired 14 JDA’s before they found somebody who might possibly fire Meuller, a process that could take half a year or more,

    and might not happen.

  99. 99.

    Wapiti

    @waratah: I wonder if Manafort and his wife did joint returns for the years in question… Not that she has any special knowledge to offer the Special Prosecutor.

  100. 100.

    burnspbesq

    @Mnemosyne:

    I don’t know if it’s still there, but there used to be a store in the Mitsuwa Marketplace in Costa Mesa that was stationery heaven, direct from Ginza.

  101. 101.

    Ruckus

    @Yarrow:
    I got called for what we were told was a special jury for a capital trial once. All of us in the room groaned together, actually a bit funny. After waiting about a half hour we were told that the dude changed his plea to guilty. We never did find out anything more, just that we’d avoided an expected long and involved trial.

  102. 102.

    Mnemosyne

    @burnspbesq:

    I looked at the store map for the Mitsuwa and, if I’m reading it right, they have a Maido shop, which is the same chain that’s at Santa Anita. That’s the place where I built my very own 4-color pen using the colors of my choice (blue, black, green, and purple) so, yes, stationery heaven.

  105. 105.

    SFAW

    @chopper:

    jesus, do si dos? she didn’t even offer you one of the good ones?

    I think she was trying to move the slow sellers, and I looked susceptible to a little “judicious arm-twisting.”

  106. 106.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Mnemosyne: Thank you for coming to my defense but this is not that the first time, the person with this handle has attacked me. They have attacked my English comprehension and called me Susan Sarandon because I did not want the Ds to take T’s offer to keep DACA which included slashing legal immigration in half during budget negotiations earlier this year. Even in this thread OO has expressed similar sentiments but only I was at the receiving end of their diatribe.

  107. 107.

    CliosFanBoy

    @Mnemosyne: I believe the original joke was “Death by Roo Roo” and involved all guys, no women.

    Of course then there s the classic “OK, I f’d the polar bear. Where’s the virgin maiden you wanted me to fight?”

  109. 109.

    Procopius

    @boatboy_srq: I think the reason Manafort’s lawyer brought the “leaving evidence around” matter up is that to prove fraud, the prosecution must prove intent. This has enraged me since I learned about it during the tsunami of forged documents used to foreclose on homes. Of course Congress is never going to amend the law to fix this ruling from the Supremes, because Democrats use it as much as Republicans.

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