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You are here: Home / Politics / Trumpery / Dolt 45 / The Manafort Endgame

The Manafort Endgame

by John Cole|  August 14, 20188:40 pm| 93 Comments

This post is in: Dolt 45

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Manafort’s defense team rested without… well, without putting on a defense. At all. Which (REMINDER, IANAL), happens from time to time, but I was under the presumption that it happens when the defense is convinced that the prosecution did not prove their case. That is most certainly not the situation here. They didn’t put on a defense because they basically don’t have one, and the prospect of having any defense witnesses cross-examined would be terrifying to them. So this sounds plausible:

But let’s imagine for a moment that he knows something incriminating about the president — or even that the president isn’t sure what Manafort knows, but suspects that he might know something. (This, by the way, is Adam Davidson’s extremely plausible theory of Russian kompromat: Trump acts the way he does toward Vladimir Putin not because he knows Putin has damaging information on him, but because he just isn’t sure what Putin might have.) Would Trump actually go so far as to pardon Manafort, given the firestorm of criticism he’d get?

There are some lines even Trump is unwilling to cross. For instance, while he complains loudly about Attorney General Jeff Sessions not being able to protect him by shutting down the Mueller investigation, so far he hasn’t actually fired Sessions and replaced him with someone more pliable, presumably at least in part because his aides have convinced him that doing so would be a political disaster.

At the same time, Trump has spent the past 15 months since Mueller was appointed trying to discredit the investigation, in a campaign designed less to persuade the broader public than to convince his base that it is a witch hunt from start to finish and therefore everything it produces, no matter how factual and supported by evidence, should be ignored and discounted. He has obviously calculated, and rightly so, that if he can keep that base firmly behind him, Republicans in the House will never vote to impeach him, and even if Democrats took control of the chamber and did so, Republicans in the Senate would never vote to convict.

He doesn’t care if he is convicted because Trump will pardon him for keeping quiet. And as Joe Arpaio has shown, it doesn’t matter if you have to admit guilt to accept a pardon- you can just lie about that later and your idiot supporters will believe you.

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Previous Post: « Open Thread: Omarosa Manigault-Newman & the G(r)ift That Keeps On Giving
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Reader Interactions

93Comments

  1. 1.

    Patricia Kayden

    August 14, 2018 at 8:47 pm

    Probably true. Trump doesn’t appear to care about detractors and focuses solely on pleasing his base. Deplorables would be ecstatic if Trump pardoned Manafort. This would give the rest of us another reason to vote in November.

  2. 2.

    Baud

    August 14, 2018 at 8:47 pm

    Predictions are kind of worthless because we don’t know what evidence Mueller will eventually put forward and how the public will react to it.

  3. 3.

    dr. bloor

    August 14, 2018 at 8:48 pm

    I was under the presumption that it happens when the defense is convinced that the prosecution did not prove their case.

    PopeHat had a helpful reminder thread on this today. You don’t put on a defense if doing so carries the identifiable risk of making matters worse, including a number of ways in which precisely that might happen in Manafort’s case. Sitting down and shutting up was the defenses’s best option at this point.

    More on topic, I am under the impression that Manafort’s leeway for clamming up about what he knows disappears if he is given a pardon by Trump, as he no longer risks prosecution and loses his fifth amendment rights. Am I mistaken?

  4. 4.

    joel hanes

    August 14, 2018 at 8:49 pm

    I predict that Manafort will not break, and will go to jail.

    Not because he’s confident that The Donald will pardon him, but because he’s terrified of what will happen if he even appears to threaten to rat out Putin and the Russian oligarchs.

  5. 5.

    Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)

    August 14, 2018 at 8:52 pm

    @joel hanes:

    Yeah. I’m hardly an expert here, but this seems to be the most likely here. I think he’s scared about what would happen to him but even more scared shitless about what might happen to his children.

  6. 6.

    Poptartacus

    August 14, 2018 at 8:53 pm

    He can go into witness protection
    https://youtu.be/lQ0j5yGz7Bs

  7. 7.

    TenguPhule

    August 14, 2018 at 8:54 pm

    There are some lines even Trump is unwilling to cross.

    Evidence not evident.

  8. 8.

    cain

    August 14, 2018 at 8:54 pm

    @joel hanes:
    I agree. I think that is precisely why he’s doing it. He fears the Russians and most likely they can get him in jail if he rats them out or go after his family.

  9. 9.

    TenguPhule

    August 14, 2018 at 8:55 pm

    @joel hanes:

    but because he’s terrified of what will happen if he even appears to threaten to rat out Putin and the Russian oligarchs.

    That won’t save him. They can’t risk that he might change his mind later.

  10. 10.

    Pharniel

    August 14, 2018 at 8:56 pm

    @dr. bloor: Not against state crimes.
    Basically he can still take the 5th vs. state crimes unless granted a deal.

  11. 11.

    Wick

    August 14, 2018 at 9:00 pm

    Accepting a pardon is not an admission of guilt.

    For that matter, you don’t have to accept a pardon; pardons happen whether you accept them or not.

  12. 12.

    randy khan

    August 14, 2018 at 9:00 pm

    The big difference between Manafort and Arpaio if you’re looking at it based on Trump’s previous statements and actions is that he had a lot of nice things to say about Arpaio, while he’s been denigrating Manafort for a while – he’s said Manafort was only slightly involved in campaign and that he barely knows him. You could conclude that Trump has written him off. In that context, a pardon seems less likely.

    But it’s Trump, so really nobody knows. And while I think Manafort is pretty stupid (I mean, he was stupid enough to leave a paper trail when he tried to tamper with witnesses), I don’t think he’s stupid enough to count on Trump to do anything. Like joel hanes, I think he’s more worried about the Russians than anything else, and that’s why he hasn’t pled out.

  13. 13.

    LAO

    August 14, 2018 at 9:01 pm

    Honestly, I’m with @popehat here. There are a lot of simple, regular reasons for not putting on a defense case.

  14. 14.

    mike in dc

    August 14, 2018 at 9:01 pm

    @joel hanes: As I’ve said before, since it started 47 years ago, nobody who’s gone into witness protection(and stayed there) has ever been killed while in WITSEC. A few who left WITSEC did, if I remember correctly, but nobody in it does. If they blow their cover, they get whisked away to another cover. WITSEC would put Manafort’s whole family under protection as well.
    18000 and 0 or thereabouts.

  15. 15.

    Uncle Omar

    August 14, 2018 at 9:01 pm

    @TenguPhule: Right, remember the scene in Casino where the mobsters had their meeting in the courthouse meeting room and decided that everybody who might know anything had to be whacked? That’s what Putin and his gang will do. On Manafort not testifying, when I was in prosecution we all hoped the Defendant would take the stand because he/she would always screw the pooch somewhere along the line under cross-examination.

  16. 16.

    The Ancient Randonneur

    August 14, 2018 at 9:03 pm

    I am not an expert on these matters. Not even on the internet. I’ll just wait to see how this plays out.

    The only thing I can influence right now is voting. First Tuesday in November. Mark it on your calendar. Our democracy is hanging on by a thread.

  17. 17.

    raven

    August 14, 2018 at 9:03 pm

    @Uncle Omar: Wise guys are puppies compared to Russians. Watch “Eastern Promises” to get a glimpse.

  18. 18.

    The Ancient Randonneur

    August 14, 2018 at 9:06 pm

    @LAO:

    Amen. The rest of this speculation belongs on an Alex Jones website.

  19. 19.

    Wick

    August 14, 2018 at 9:06 pm

    @Wick: My bad. A pardon can be rejected. It still isn’t an admission of guilt.

  20. 20.

    Chetan Murthy

    August 14, 2018 at 9:06 pm

    @Wick: In 1915, the Supreme Court indeed said, of pardons, that “acceptance” carries “a confession of” guilt.

    In 1833, the Supreme Court ultimately weighed in on the issue, ruling “A pardon is a deed, to the validity of which delivery is essential, and delivery is not complete without acceptance. It may then be rejected by the person to whom it is tendered, and if it be rejected, we have discovered no power in a court to force it on him.”

  21. 21.

    debbie

    August 14, 2018 at 9:07 pm

    @LAO:

    Psyching out the jury would be one, right? Get them to think you think there’s nothing to defend.

  22. 22.

    The Dangerman

    August 14, 2018 at 9:07 pm

    IANAL (but I did stay at a blah blah blah). If I had to put money on an outcome, I’d go hung jury. Two reasons. One, the judge wasn’t given a chance to be a prick against the defense, just be a prick to the prosecution. Two, more and more importantly, there is probably at least one FOX-loving juror that has seen FOX lambaste this trial as a witchhunt. Yeah, he or she shouldn’t be watching FOX talking about this trial, but, again, all they need is one loser. Plus, if I were slimey enough to watch FOX, I’d be slimey enough to think there could be a payday to hang this trial. Not that there will be one, there could be one.

    So, my odds … 60 hung … 40 convict … 0 for innocence.

  23. 23.

    MJS

    August 14, 2018 at 9:07 pm

    @raven: Pfft. I’ve seen a 50 something year old Denzel Washington kick the shit out of a whole group of Russians. Killed them all. Also, a really small Sylvester Stallone whooped up on a Russian. They’re not so tough.

  24. 24.

    Lapassionara

    August 14, 2018 at 9:08 pm

    @The Ancient Randonneur: Yes. This,

  25. 25.

    Patricia Kayden

    August 14, 2018 at 9:09 pm

    @raven: That was a brutal movie. That fighting scene in the bathroom stands out.

  26. 26.

    Poptartacus

    August 14, 2018 at 9:11 pm

    He will be convicted on all counts

  27. 27.

    raven

    August 14, 2018 at 9:13 pm

    @Patricia Kayden: Insane wasn’t it. Vigo was awesome.

  28. 28.

    japa21

    August 14, 2018 at 9:14 pm

    IANAL but I seem to recall that a pardon only means a person cannot take the fifth when questioned about actions relating to the crime of which he was convicted. IOW, he could still take the fifth about anything relating to Russian collusion (conspiracy) with the campaign.

  29. 29.

    Barbara

    August 14, 2018 at 9:14 pm

    So long as Manafort did not testify there was no point in trying to put anything else in. Better to maintain the government didn’t meet its burden than highlight Manafort’s refusal to personally testify that Gates was responsible for everything.

  30. 30.

    LAO

    August 14, 2018 at 9:14 pm

    @debbie: Sure. But there are other possibilities. One example is, I think, based upon my own experience that the defense got a poor ruling on the Rule 404(b) evidence the government sought to produce should he testify. (Other bad act evidence). The defense has to be very careful not “to open the door” for the admission of otherwise inadmissible evidence. This is nothing special to Manafort. This happens in virtually every federal criminal trial.

  31. 31.

    Adam L Silverman

    August 14, 2018 at 9:16 pm

    Waldman should read his own paper…
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/08/14/as-trump-keeps-raging-at-mueller-another-poll-shows-his-lies-are-failing/?utm_term=.6eeb7efc1281

    Because so many of us got it wrong in 2016, we often tend to reflexively tell ourselves that President Trump must be working some kind of hidden magic over public opinion that we’re all missing. One place this constantly manifests itself is with special counsel Robert S. Mueller’s III’s investigation: If Mueller’s approval falls a few points, a throng of pundits and hand-wringing liberals rushes forth to tell us that Trump is “winning” his battle with Mueller.

    But what if public opinion about Trump and the Russia probe is a lot simpler than we think? What if the story is that large majorities think Trump is probably guilty of some sort of wrongdoing; believe that Mueller’s investigation is legitimately in keeping with the rule of law and is pursuing matters that are important to the public interest; want Trump to face questioning over these matters; don’t like Trump’s constant attacks on the investigation; and believe Trump has been trying to interfere with the probe and has been steadily lying about it all along?

    This morning, Trump is once again raging at Mueller on Twitter, calling for his probe to be shut down. Uh-oh. His base will march in lockstep with him on this, and that’s all that matters! He’s flooding the media zone!! We are doomed to helplessness while his mighty social media presence mesmerizes the electorate!!! He’s winning!!!!

    Except … no, he isn’t. A new CNN poll finds:

    Only 34 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the Russia investigation, vs. 55 percent who disapprove.
    58 percent say this is a serious matter that should be investigated, vs. only 37 percent who think it’s mainly an effort to discredit Trump.
    56 percent say Trump has interfered with the investigation, vs. only 38 percent who say he has not.
    Only 37 percent say the things Trump has said publicly about the investigation are true, vs. 56 percent who say they are false.
    70 percent say Trump should testify to Mueller, vs. only 25 percent who say he should not.
    57 percent say Trump knew about contacts between his campaign operatives and Russians, vs. only 36 percent who say he did not.

    Trump is losing every single public argument about the Mueller probe. His latest, in a tweet citing Judicial Watch, is that the firing of former FBI agent Peter Strzok, who authored texts critical of Trump, shows that the “fundamental underpinnings of the investigation were corrupt.” This is a lie: The inspector general’s report into all this actually found that the FBI decision not to prosecute Hillary Clinton was untainted by bias or politics, completely laying waste to Trump’s narrative. Regardless, this is only the latest in a long string of things that was supposed to “give Trump fodder” to disqualify the investigation, to use that deeply misleading and self-reinforcing journalistic cliche.

    Much more at the link.

  32. 32.

    raven

    August 14, 2018 at 9:16 pm

    @LAO: Rule 303 on the Velt.

  33. 33.

    germy

    August 14, 2018 at 9:18 pm

    Saw BlacKkKlansman today. Enjoyed the movie, but the theater turned on the house lights right before the last scene started, before the credits. Not sure why they did that.

    And we saw Sorry To Bother You a few weeks ago, and I noticed a very stern-looking usher (or whatever they call them nowadays) walk through the theater three times during the film and glare at the audience.

    I guess I’m being paranoid.

  34. 34.

    Another Scott

    August 14, 2018 at 9:21 pm

    He should be convicted on all counts. Will he? Dunno.

    In other news, TeamPelosi:

    Nancy Pelosi @TeamPelosi

    Nancy Pelosi Retweeted Sylvia R. Garcia

    I’m excited to join you tomorrow, Sylvia, to discuss our work #ForThePeople and the importance of keeping immigrant families together, reducing gun violence and protecting and strengthening Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security! -NP #WomenSucceed ?Nancy Pelosi added,

    Sylvia R. Garcia @SenatorSylvia

    US House candidate, TX-29

    Today a #TshirtTues repeat in honor of @NancyPelosi who will be in Houston tomorrow. An all time fave of mine- especially these days- ‘A woman’s place is in the House and Senate’. No one leads charge better on this than Leader Pelosi. Excited she will be in…

    4:00 PM – 14 Aug 2018

    You folks in Houston should show up there and offer your support, if you’re able.

    As TAR says above at #16, Eyes on the Prize. 83 days to go…

    ETA – Oh, and I don’t think Donnie will pardon Manafort. He doesn’t care about him enough to do so and there’s no upside for Donald.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  35. 35.

    Gravenstone

    August 14, 2018 at 9:23 pm

    you can just lie about that later and your idiot supporters will believe you.

    Presumes Manafort has supporters. More likely he only has clients and marks.

  36. 36.

    Chetan Murthy

    August 14, 2018 at 9:26 pm

    @Gravenstone: A twisted excuse for a human being like that? What he did (or tried to do — I didn’t read the texts, only a brief description of them) to his wife? Fuuuuuck no. Like Lord Littledick, he’s got victims, clients, and a few co-conspirators (who are busy sorting themselves into one of the two other bins).

  37. 37.

    LongHairedWeirdo

    August 14, 2018 at 9:27 pm

    One obvious reason not to present a defense is to fear you have nothing to offer that will survive cross-examination. If you play it snooty and arrogant enough, you *might* even help the jury think that the prosecution hasn’t made their case, even if, deep down, you know they have.

    So it’s possible that they shot their wad during cross-examination; it could be that they aren’t sure they have unimpeachable witnesses, so they don’t dare present any.

  38. 38.

    germy

    August 14, 2018 at 9:27 pm

    @Another Scott:

    I don’t think Donnie will pardon Manafort. He doesn’t care about him enough to do so and there’s no upside for Donald.

    I would have thought that about Arpaio.

  39. 39.

    Baud

    August 14, 2018 at 9:31 pm

    @Another Scott: Senator Garcia obviously doesn’t watch NBC.

  40. 40.

    PPCLI

    August 14, 2018 at 9:33 pm

    IANAL, but it seems to me that a side benefit of beginning with the tax charges before prosecuting Manafort for other things is that it lays out a path to state tax charges immediately if a pardon happens. If he wasn’t declaring that income to the Feds he presumably wasn’t declaring it to whatever state he should have been paying taxes to.

  41. 41.

    Major Major Major Major

    August 14, 2018 at 9:34 pm

    The Manafort Endgame sounds like the name of a Ludlum novel.

  42. 42.

    schrodingers_cat

    August 14, 2018 at 9:34 pm

    @Baud: Agreed.

  43. 43.

    LAO

    August 14, 2018 at 9:35 pm

    @germy: Apario was about the base. I don’t see them caring about Manafort. But, who really knows.

  44. 44.

    schrodingers_cat

    August 14, 2018 at 9:35 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Those were unreadable. They would start well but I could never finish them.

  45. 45.

    Major Major Major Major

    August 14, 2018 at 9:35 pm

    Christine Hallquist will make history as first openly transgender major party nominee for governor, CNN projects

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/14/politics/christine-hallquist-transgender-candidate-vermont-governor/index.html

  46. 46.

    jonas

    August 14, 2018 at 9:36 pm

    @The Dangerman: That sounds about right to me. My hunch is that the defense is confident enough that there are one or more Trumpsters on the jury that they can count on to gum things up, and could thus sort of just phone it in at this point. We’ll see of course what they have to say during closing arguments. If that’s also phoning it in, then it’s bad news: they have some jurors in their Fox-lined pockets and they know it. That, and the fact that the judge basically spent the entire trial openly broadcasting his opinion that he thought the prosecution was full of shit. Despite all the, you know, damning evidence.

    American justice. The Best Money Can Buy™

  47. 47.

    Another Scott

    August 14, 2018 at 9:36 pm

    @germy: Donnie loves, loves, loves Sherriff Joe. So does his base.

    His base doesn’t care about Manafort.

    [ As LAO already said, above. ]

    Manafort is a disposable tool, for Yanukovych, for Putin, and for Donnie. The only value Manafort has to Donnie now is by keeping quiet about the Russia Conspiracy stuff. Since this trial wasn’t about the Russia Conspiracy stuff, a pardon for this conviction (assuming it happens, and survives appeal) is useless.

    IANAL. Just my musings…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  48. 48.

    YetAnotherJay formerly (Jay S)

    August 14, 2018 at 9:36 pm

    @germy: I think the Arpaio pardon was about Arpaio having a cult following like Donald has or wanted to have, so he gets some of the Arpaio cult love with the pardon. There is no cult of Manafort to draw favor from. ETA or what @Another Scott: said,

  49. 49.

    MobileForkbeard

    August 14, 2018 at 9:38 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: I admit to being very, very surprised and simultaneously impressed.

  50. 50.

    hitchhiker

    August 14, 2018 at 9:38 pm

    OT: I think the Dems should launch a 100% Turnout Challenge for every district in the USA. Top 10 winners earn something — wouldn’t even matter much what. For the family with the most people who voted, a visit from the Obama family, maybe. A trip to see the new congress sworn in. Something symbolic.

    We have to start setting a standard of 100% Turnout; it’s how we rid ourselves of this wretched mob of gangsters and fools. When we vote, we win.

  51. 51.

    Baud

    August 14, 2018 at 9:38 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Which party?

  52. 52.

    p.a.

    August 14, 2018 at 9:39 pm

    @Another Scott: Fox (someone in the Y gym keeps turning it on) has been on the ‘50 Dems against Pelosi, Dems are in disarray, Libtard. ancy is Dooooooommmmmeeedd’ train for a while. 193-ish Dems currently in HoR. Innumeracy is a conservative voter hallmark.

  53. 53.

    Major Major Major Major

    August 14, 2018 at 9:39 pm

    @Baud: D

  54. 54.

    NotMax

    August 14, 2018 at 9:40 pm

    Ain’t no pardon forthcoming. Dolt 45 is not one to play coy and leave it unmentioned beforehand. The silence about it is the tell right there.

  55. 55.

    Baud

    August 14, 2018 at 9:40 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Yeah, I was jk.

  56. 56.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    August 14, 2018 at 9:41 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Despite all the headwinds, we’re still making progress and moving forward in fits and starts. USA!! ?? ?️‍?

  57. 57.

    trollhattan

    August 14, 2018 at 9:42 pm

    @germy:
    Arpaio is kind of a rodeo clown despised by Democrats and decent people, so Trump pardoned him to piss people off. But he had no connection to Donny–Manafort has different status in that regard. But “Bla, bla, bla, Massive Witch Hunt, innocent victim, I must pardon” seems all too plausible.

  58. 58.

    Major Major Major Major

    August 14, 2018 at 9:42 pm

    @Baud: well, Vermont is weird…

  59. 59.

    germy

    August 14, 2018 at 9:42 pm

    @Another Scott: Makes sense to me now.

  60. 60.

    Omnes Omnibus

    August 14, 2018 at 9:42 pm

    @LAO: Yep, but that won’t stop people from freaking out.

  61. 61.

    NotMax

    August 14, 2018 at 9:44 pm

    @germy

    Arpaiao is a touchstone and a dog whistle for the radical right, all rolled into one.

    Manafort does not come with that dire baggage, he is is “just some guy” in that mutantverse.

  62. 62.

    evodevo

    August 14, 2018 at 9:48 pm

    @LAO: If my local Trumpers are any indication, they don’t have a clue who ANY of these people are …they only hear “witch hunt” from Fixed News, but they aren’t really familiar with who a majority of the witches are, nor do they seem to understand how many witches have been indicted/convicted/pled whatever. Current events isn’t their strong subject.

  63. 63.

    The Dangerman

    August 14, 2018 at 9:49 pm

    Oh, and put me down on betting Trump doesn’t pardon him but instead goes with the “Paul who? Never heard of him” tactic.

    Arpaio was different. Racists gotta stick together.

    ETA: Or what NotMax said two floors up.

  64. 64.

    YetAnotherJay formerly (Jay S)

    August 14, 2018 at 9:55 pm

    @evodevo: Ah yes, I forgot the Fox Arpaio drumbeat. If they start evangelizing for Manafort specifically that might move the pardon needle. I doubt it, but if they create an imaginary ground swell, Trump might buy it.

  65. 65.

    Mnemosyne

    August 14, 2018 at 9:57 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I don’t think anyone is going to feel secure unless a “guilty” verdict comes down from the jury. There’s just been too much open fuckery since Trump’s election for people to feel like he’s actually going to get convicted.

  66. 66.

    Mnemosyne

    August 14, 2018 at 9:59 pm

    @hitchhiker:

    We want 100 percent turnout OF DEMOCRATS, though. In many areas, 100 percent turnout of all voters would mean the Democrats getting their asses kicked.

  67. 67.

    Omnes Omnibus

    August 14, 2018 at 10:01 pm

    @Mnemosyne: Okay, I get that, but every person on this blog with criminal law experience has said nothing really weird went on. OTOH, juries are unpredictable.

  68. 68.

    Frankensteinbeck

    August 14, 2018 at 10:02 pm

    Trump will pardon him for keeping quiet.

    I doubt it seriously. If Trump were going to pardon people so they wouldn’t talk, he’d have done it already. He has made it ABUNDANTLY plain that anyone who gets in legal trouble serving him is not only on their own, he will throw them to the wolves himself.

    Arpaio is a totally different situation. Arpaio has no real connection to Trump or Trump’s crimes. Arpaio in Trump’s eyes is a hero who was wrongly oppressed by the courts for his heroic actions. He did enjoy playing it up to the base, but it was a moral statement on Trump’s part – he and his presidency support brutalizing brown people, and will defend anyone’s right to do so.

  69. 69.

    Ohio Mom

    August 14, 2018 at 10:04 pm

    @Poptartacus: Is the Witness Protection an American invention? If so, what does that say about us?

    Has the program ever had to hide someone from the Russians before?

    I can’t see Manafort picking that option because I don’t think he would think it’s a good bet. Putin would want to get him just for the terrorism value, to make it absolutely clear what happens if you cross him, that there will be no safe harbor anywhere.

    Now, Putin might not succeed, maybe those Marshals would be his match, but you can’t know that in advance.

    P.S. my nym is there but not my email?

  70. 70.

    Jay

    August 14, 2018 at 10:05 pm

    @YetAnotherJay formerly (Jay S):

    They’d have to report on the Manifort Case, which they have been downplaying,

    In the Fauxiverse, if a conspirator is convicted but Faux news doesn’t report it, did it happen?

  71. 71.

    Mnemosyne

    August 14, 2018 at 10:06 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I know. LAO and other NYC legal eagles have reassured us that the judge in this case is always kind of an abrupt asshole to everyone and we shouldn’t read anything into his behavior towards the prosecution.

    I’m still nervous, though. And having “Never Gonna Give You Up” playing at Whole Foods isn’t helping. They must have put their 80s tape into the Muzak system.

  72. 72.

    LAO

    August 14, 2018 at 10:07 pm

    @Mnemosyne: @Omnes Omnibus: I feel the need to second Omes, because the trial was so ordinary, there was nothing that deviated from the norm. And I include the judge acting like a dick because federal judges, by and large, are jerks to lawyers on both sides. I don’t know what’s going to happen because one never knows what a jury will do. But there were no shenanigans.

  73. 73.

    sralloway

    August 14, 2018 at 10:08 pm

    @germy:
    Was a projectionist many years ago, 1974. That is a big no-no. Never hit the house lights until credits are done.

  74. 74.

    LAO

    August 14, 2018 at 10:09 pm

    @Mnemosyne: you did not just put that song in my head. Shakes fist!

  75. 75.

    hitchhiker

    August 14, 2018 at 10:11 pm

    @Mnemosyne:

    If 100% of everybody turned out, we would win in a landslide. There are more of us than there are Republicans, and right now the Independents are tilting hard in our direction.

  76. 76.

    Miss Bianca

    August 14, 2018 at 10:21 pm

    @jonas: You know, I have to say it to you and the other “oh, the jury is going to be RIGGED, somehow, RIGGED, I tell you, because TRUMPERS”… it seems to me that y’all are exhibiting a bit of bad faith about these jurors in particular, and the jury system in general, in the absence of any real evidence. It’s true what LAO and O2 say, about the unpredictability of juries, but dang…the ones I’ve seen in action have seemed like thoughtful people who took their responsibilities seriously. In other words, I don’t get the rush to pessimistic panic.

  77. 77.

    Ruckus

    August 14, 2018 at 10:21 pm

    Arpaio is a racist bully and a buffoon. That’s kin to shitgibbon.
    Manafort was a hire. Hires are expendable. And as others have said he could have pardoned him before now.
    Pardoning Arpaio didn’t cost him a penny and gained him status with the shitstains that support him. Pardoning Manafort or most anyone actually in his inner circle will cost him dearly. I’m not sure he knows/understands this but I’d bet at least someone has explained it to him. Besides he is rarely loyal to his loyal hires, someone that got themselves caught isn’t going to be his friend.

  78. 78.

    Ruckus

    August 14, 2018 at 10:27 pm

    @LAO:
    Question.
    What if there is one juror who is a “trumper” and refuses to budge against the other, I”m assuming 11? Is that a hung jury and if so can’t the prosecution ask for another trial?

  79. 79.

    Omnes Omnibus

    August 14, 2018 at 10:28 pm

    @Miss Bianca: There are a lot of people here who are big into all institutions are failing. I happen not to be one of them.

    Also, Manafort has another trial coming up. He won’t be two times lucky.

  80. 80.

    LAO

    August 14, 2018 at 10:30 pm

    An 11-1 hung jury would result in a mistrial with an absolute right to re-try Manafort, no judicial permission required.

  81. 81.

    Calouste

    August 14, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    @Ohio Mom: Putin’s killers are actually not the brightest. In the Novochik affair they turned an attempted assassination into basically a terrorist attack, the targets survived, they lost the nerve agent, and an innocent person was eventually killed.

    In the polonium tea affair, they spilled so much of the stuff they could trace it back to the plane seats the killers were sitting in on their flight from Moscow.

    It’s a wonder these guys didn’t kill themselves. And these were completely unprotected targets.

  82. 82.

    The Dangerman

    August 14, 2018 at 10:37 pm

    @LAO:

    An 11-1 hung jury would result in a mistrial with an absolute right to re-try Manafort, no judicial permission required.

    10-2 needs judge sign off? Is this just Federal? i thought it was always up to the prosecution.

  83. 83.

    Aleta

    August 14, 2018 at 10:40 pm

    I hope this is just the first trial for Manafort. I can believe T would pardon him. They’ll each look even more guilty of treason (not that they care) but maybe the price on Manafort’s head will also increase.

    Pardon him (or jury lets him go) … does he have enough friends and $ in Eastern Europe to live on, stay safe? Or would T be up against the need to pay for his continued ‘retirement’? Neither one will trust the other to believe it’s over. If M has information to damage the T family, wouldn’t Duhnald jr, for one example, also want him dead?

    I hope other charges are set in motion before the jury speaks.

  84. 84.

    burnspbesq

    August 14, 2018 at 10:45 pm

    A pardon can keep Manafort out of prison, but not out of the poorhouse. If he’s convicted for willful failure to file FBARs, the conviction collaterally estops him from contesting willfulness in the subsequent civil penalty proceeding. With four years on the table the penalty is 200 percent of the account balances.

  85. 85.

    LAO

    August 14, 2018 at 10:46 pm

    @The Dangerman: The numbers don’t matter. Hung juries always result in a mistrial with an unrestricted right to retry case in the feds (and NY).

    Only time a mistrial can be grounds for a double jeopardy claim, is if the prosecution intentionally causes the mistrial. It’s rare.

  86. 86.

    Aleta

    August 14, 2018 at 10:50 pm

    @LAO: NYT also.

    The decision by the defense to rest without presenting its own evidence was not unusual. “The defense believes it has made its point through cross-examination,” said Nancy Gertner, a Harvard Law School professor and a former federal judge.

    Mr. Manafort is letting the case go to the jury because he and his lawyers “do not believe that the government has met its burden of proof,” said Kevin Downing, the lead defense lawyer in the case.

  87. 87.

    Ohio Mom

    August 14, 2018 at 10:53 pm

    @Calouste: They’ve succeeded well enough in other instances. I know the jokes about the Russians who “committed suicide” by shooting themselves in the head before throwing themselves off roofs, but even if it’s obvious who really killed them, they’re still dead.

    I would suppose Putin’s henchmen, like any organization, probably has a mix ranging from star performers to inept, dead wood.

  88. 88.

    trnc

    August 14, 2018 at 10:55 pm

    @hitchhiker:

    I think the Dems should launch a 100% Turnout Challenge for every district in the USA. Top 10 winners earn something — wouldn’t even matter much what.

    Isn’t it illegal to offer something in turn for a vote, even if a specific candidate is not mentioned?

  89. 89.

    Jay

    August 14, 2018 at 11:23 pm

    @trnc:

    The offer of a prize is not for the voters, but instead the Democratic Party Group that can organize and “get out” the most voters.

  90. 90.

    Mnemosyne

    August 14, 2018 at 11:45 pm

    @germy:

    If it was a chain theater, they have all of the projectors running on a timed system and any movie that starts late runs the risk of having the house lights come on automatically. That happened after I paid $15 to see a broadcast of the Met and the theater couldn’t get the lights turned back off because of the way the system was set up. Many comp tickets were handed out that evening.

    No explanation for the usher, though.

  91. 91.

    Calouste

    August 15, 2018 at 12:30 am

    @Ohio Mom: Well, in Russia Putin’s killers don’t have to worry about police interference or investigations. The police probably get warned to stay away from a certain street at a certain hour when an operation is happening. Things are more complicated abroad.

  92. 92.

    Wyatt Derp

    August 15, 2018 at 8:56 am

    Trump doesn’t have to pardon Manafort. As many have mentioned he will keep his mouth shut from fear of the Russians.

  93. 93.

    stan

    August 15, 2018 at 12:26 pm

    @Ohio Mom: would suppose Putin’s henchmen, like any organization, probably has a mix ranging from star performers to inept, dead wood.

    If I were running Putin’s hit squad, I would not send my best and brightest abroad with a nerve agent. I’d send the dumbest, most expendable guy i had….because that stuff is dangerous to the user too…..

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