Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

No one could have predicted…

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

The willow is too close to the house.

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the GOP

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

He really is that stupid.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2018 / Thursday Morning Open Thread: A Democracy, If We Can Keep It

Thursday Morning Open Thread: A Democracy, If We Can Keep It

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(Mike Luckovich via GoComics.com)
.

Vote Dem, we’re the party that won’t rob you blind. Sound strategy, IMO. Michael Scherer, in the Washington Post:

A day after President Trump’s former lawyer implicated him in directing a crime, Democratic leaders sharpened their election-year attack on the GOP as the party of corruption. But in an effort to keep the electoral focus on bread-and-butter issues, they largely steered clear of any discussion of impeachment.

Party leaders encouraged candidates and elected members to talk instead about demanding protection for the ongoing Justice Department investigations of Trump and his allies, offering a clear sign that they feel confident that grass-roots energy against Trump will show up at the polls without the need for a divisive rallying cry from the stump.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) sent a letter to her caucus members asking them to keep speaking about economic issues, while also urging them to call out what she described as the “cesspool of self-enrichment, secret money and ethical blindness” that exists in Washington under unified Republican rule.

“It is our duty as Members of Congress to seek the truth, and hold the President and his administration accountable to the American people, and we will,” Pelosi wrote. “As November rapidly approaches, we must also stay focused on delivering our strong economic message to hard-working families across America.”

As for impeachment, Richard J. Durbin (Ill.), the second-ranking Democrat in the Senate, said, “We’re too early in the process to be using these words.” That should wait, he said, until Democrats “gather the information.”

Republicans, by contrast, eagerly warned about the danger of a Democratic impeachment push as they tried to increase fear, and thus turnout, among Trump’s most loyal voters…

Across the aisle, Politico reports:

… “The verdict in the Manafort trial isn’t nearly as worrisome to me as the Cohen agreement and the Cohen statement,” said former Trump adviser Michael Caputo. “It’s probably the worst thing so far in this whole investigation stage of the presidency.”

One Republican lawyer close to the White House worried that Cohen — with his unique access to Trump’s history of business dealings and scandalous personal entanglements — could ultimately prove more damaging to Trump, and give Democrats fodder for impeachment if they take the House in November. “It’s the only excuse they’ll need,” the lawyer said. “And believe me, they won’t need much of an excuse.”

The sheer force of the two stories breaking within minutes of each other left an unavoidable impression that the walls are closing in on a president facing serious accusations of wrongdoing, leaving some to worry what Trump will do next.

One former administration official said there’s a “very high” likelihood that the president — who increasingly feels under attack from all sides — will do something erratic that could make an already bad situation worse…

Reader Interactions

214Comments

  1. 1.

    ??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??

    Politico/Morning Consult poll showing him trailing top two Dem 2020 prospects, Biden & Bernie, by 12pts:

    Why Bernie and Biden? And why is the fact that registered voters are being polled instead of likely voters so important?

  3. 3.

    NotMax

    top two Dem 2020 prospects, Biden & Bernie

    Most depressing phrase I’ve read in ages.

    Also too, sez who?

  4. 4.

    Schlemazel

    @NotMax:
    I agree with the general consensus, why those two? But name someone else. The party is in trouble because they have ignored the States so there are few Governors and too many self-serving Senators & COngressmen.

    @??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??:
    Because only abut half of registered voters actually vote so polling registered voters is fairly pointless

  10. 10.

    Amir Khalid

    Polling presidential “candidates” this early is the political equivalent of fantasy football. These two are not even plausible choices. Biden is historically not a strong candidate for president. Bernie is not even a Democrat. Both are much too old. We have no idea yet who is really going to run. If the pollsters insist on matching up candidates this early, the Democrats they pick should be younger people, stronger candidates, and, y’know, actual Democrats.

    (The Republicans, of course, we don’t give a crap about.)

  14. 14.

    hilts

    Good riddance to Trump supporter Paris Dennard:

    CNN has suspended one of its most vocal, pro-Trump commentators after a Washington Post report detailed past alleged sexual misconduct that resulted in his firing from Arizona State University four years ago.

    Paris Dennard, who was recently praised by President Donald Trump as “wonderful,” was serving as the events director for ASU’s McCain Institute for International Leadership when he according to a 2014 university report obtained by The Washington Post, “pretended to unzip his pants in her presence, tried to get her to sit on his lap, and made masturbatory gestures.”

    h/t https://www.mediaite.com/tv/cnn-suspends-paris-dennard-after-wapo-uncovers-past-sexual-misconduct-allegations

  15. 15.

    satby

    @NotMax: Hope it continues to weaken a bit more before it gets there tomorrow. Still a bad storm, so you and the landlady stay safe and check in as you can. You know how we worry ?

  21. 21.

    Gvg

    Uh huh, well I think that if they polled Trump against generic democrat the results would be even higher. Maybe against B &B we get a view of buyers remorse. I wonder what the results against Hillary would be for academic interest only.
    I think some of our best sounding prospects are former prosecutors for some reason…

  24. 24.

    Baud

    @Gvg: People still hate Hillary, either because they are deplorable or because they realize subconsciously that they are suckers whose unfounded prior hatred of Hillary put the country in mortal danger.

  25. 25.

    Yellowdog

    According to a tweet I daw they also polled about Harris, Warren, and Booker. The B&N boys were the leaders and showed similar results. At this point it’s mostly name recognition.

  27. 27.

    Matt McIrvin

    This far before a presidential election, candidate polls are entirely about name recognition. That’s why Biden and Bernie.

    Also, likely voter screens are relatively meaningless because it’s so hard to calibrate the models. Most polls don’t switch to reporting LV numbers until quite late.

  28. 28.

    Baud

    I don’t want to get us drawn in to presidential politics, but the fact that the most popular names in our primary only lead by 12 even now provre the lie that 2016 would have been a cake walk with any other candidate.

  31. 31.

    boatboy_srq

    Maybe it’s just me, but after “impeachment is off the table” in 2006, “we’re not going to hold them accountable” in 2018 isn’t an especially appalling pitch.

  35. 35.

    debbie

    @Baud:

    As in (per Merriam-Webster):

    Definition of gimme. plural gimmes. 1 : a short putt in golf conceded to an opponent in casual or match play. 2 : something easily achieved or won especially in a contest.

  38. 38.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    @??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??: Somebody’s idea on who the front runners are, two+ years out. Reality has a tendency to catch up with that type of punditry.

    I remember a bookstore coming out with two calendars in red and blue, probably in 2015 though it might have been 2016 (with the calendars on sale in fall of 2015). One featured Hillary. The other had Rudy Giuliani.

  40. 40.

    Immanentize

    I agree with all about the value of polls this far out. And I agree the B&B stuff is name recognition and general bullshit.

    But every article that tells the world that Trump is a losing loser is fine with me. I hope Trump reads it. And has a fatal conniption.

  43. 43.

    Baud

    @debbie:

    I’m not saying he’s not beatable. If it weren’t for Comey he would have lost. I’m saying it was never going to be a blowout.

  44. 44.

    hueyplong

    This early, it just means Trump trails a pair of cardboard cutouts by 12. Its only possible relevance is as a hamhanded stab at the advisability of Trump campaigning for GOP candidates the next two months.

    The world will be a different place in 2 years.

  46. 46.

    randy khan

    @??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??:

    I assume they picked Biden and Sanders because they both have high name recognition. Regardless a 12-point gap against anyone this far out is, shall we say, unusual.

    The poll also looked at a bunch of other prospective candidate, none of whom did as well – they even included Avenatti, which must have thrilled him. The article also points out that Trump got more or less the same low percentage against any of the named candidates; the difference was in undecided voters (and I’d bet that most of those undecided voters didn’t know the names well enough to have an opinion).

    Also, the poll was conducted before the Tuesday news.

  50. 50.

    Lapassionara

    @hueyplong: Please, FSM, let it be a better place.

    I am looking at Jason Kander and Beto O’Rourk for future dem leadership.

    And imho, all Dem candidates should point out the R’s plans to fix the deficit by cutting SS and Medicare, if they stay in the majority.

  51. 51.

    raven

    Sen. Mazie Hirono said Trump’s Supreme Court nominee was selected only to “protect, as we say in Hawaii, his own okole.”

  52. 52.

    PPCLI

    The next Democratic presidential primary should make it a requirement that candidates submit the last 5 years of tax returns to be eligible. Not only will that be rhetorically useful for demanding that Trump do the same, but it might make a certain candidate who has consistently failed to pony up his tax returns to show what he is hiding or get off the stage.

  53. 53.

    chris

    First thing I read this morning. Pre-coffee it took a moment to process.

    The president says it should be illegal for criminals to co-operate with the government: https://t.co/sAwnPE238k— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) 23 August 2018

    The second thing I read was that Senator Professor Warren has put her tax returns online… Hope she’s just trying to set an example because, as much as I love her, she’s also too old to be president.

  54. 54.

    danielx

    I have been waiting for a truly volcanic Trump eruption since Tuesday, and he’s been relatively mild so far. Maybe he’s thinking about changing the narrative by doing something truly stupid and futile. Thermonuclear war, anyone?

  55. 55.

    zhena gogolia

    @NotMax:

    My reaction too. I hope you and TenguPhule will be safe in the storm. TenguPhule should weight down the base of the guillotine so it doesn’t blow away.

  58. 58.

    Platonailedit

    @danielx:

    You asked for it. Only this time, you get to see the totus rant on pox news.

    Trump: "I will tell you what, if I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash. I think everybody would be very poor because without this thinking [gestures to his head] you would see — you would see numbers that you wouldn't believe — in reverse."— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 23, 2018

  59. 59.

    PPCLI

    @chris: Daniel Dale is really doing a spectacular job. Part of it is that he’s just a terrific journalist, period, but also it shows what journalism can look like when mainstream journalists don’t have to depend on access to do the job, and if their editors and publishers aren’t on the same cocktail party circuit as the politicians that are being covered.

  63. 63.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    two Dem 2020 prospects, Biden & Bernie

    Berni would be 78 and Joe Biden would be 77, that’s what we need, more white guys at the end of their lives running this country.

  64. 64.

    MomSense

    The trump twitts are all whatabouting Obama’s campaign finance violations. Anyone know what they are talking about?

  65. 65.

    eric

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: I think the point of the pole is rightly cautionary. Yes, it is years out, but the two points made are: the dems with the highest IDs/poll numbers are polarizing and older; second, the point of registered is that dems do better on registered than on likely (because of the lower voter turnout in normal years). So, the point is: yes, a dem is up 12, but it is not likely to be the dem running and the 12 is inflated because it is registered voters. Not saying it has much value it reality, but those are the anti-dem success biases in the poll

  66. 66.

    Platonailedit

    @MomSense:

    Apparently the Obama campaign did not report some donors within 48 hours and got fined by FEC, which they paid. The thug is deperating.

  67. 67.

    But her emails!!!

    @MomSense:
    It’s a bad faith argument. Obama’s campaign was hit with a big fine because they weren’t able to meet a reporting deadline due to the high volume of contributions. There were no sketchy payments to pay off prostitutes or attempts to cover up those payments.

  68. 68.

    Betty Cracker

    @chris: I am 95% sure Warren is running in 2020. I would definitely consider supporting her in the primary. She’s 69 now, which isn’t ideal for a generational contrast with Trump, but she’s sharp as a tack and super energetic. I don’t write her off as too old.

  71. 71.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @hilts:

    Paris Dennard, who was recently praised by President Donald Trump as “wonderful,” was serving as the events director for ASU’s McCain Institute for International Leadership when he according to a 2014 university report obtained by The Washington Post, “pretended to unzip his pants in her presence, tried to get her to sit on his lap, and made masturbatory gestures.”

    First, small wonder Trump approves of this masher.

    Second, what is with conservatives and their lame game with the ladies? Does jerking yourself off in public the thang with Conservative women? One would think that any guy over 16 would know that’s coming on to strong but maybe this is part of Gor is a conservative feminists fantasy that enable idiots like Dennard.

  73. 73.

    MomSense

    @Betty Cracker:

    Ugh. I hope she doesn’t run. She had a significant undervote (compared to votes for Obama) in Massachusetts in 2012. As offensive and racist as it may be, the Republicans and media will but her emails her to the Pocahontas BS.

  74. 74.

    But her emails!!!

    @Betty Cracker: Warren is 69 and part of the WWW demographic. She probably has better than even odds of living past 85 so she’s not too old outside of ageism.

  75. 75.

    Platonailedit

    I have cancelled my meeting with Judge Kavanaugh. @realDonaldTrump, who is an unindicted co-conspirator in a criminal matter, does not deserve the courtesy of a meeting with his nominee—purposely selected to protect, as we say in Hawaii, his own okole.— Senator Mazie Hirono (@maziehirono) August 22, 2018

  76. 76.

    dmsilev

    @??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??: The poll, useless as it is this early, actually asked about a whole bunch of potential Democratic challengers vs. Trump. Vox summarized the results but the bottom line is that ~30% of those polled said that Trump should be reelected independent of who he was polled against. Support _for_ the challenger correlated with name recognition, nothing else. Biden and Sanders topped the list because they both had high national profiles and more people know who they are. That’s all it is.

  78. 78.

    rikyrah

    Uh Uh Uh

    REPORT: Urban Meyer Destroyed Old Text Messages Before Handing Over His Phone
    Jason McIntyre

    Urban Meyer will serve a 3-game suspension for his handling of domestic violence allegations made against former wide receivers coach Zach Smith, but some news that has emerged after the report may hurt the Buckeyes coach even more the court of public opinion.

    According to report released by the University:

    And when Urban turned his phone over to the investigative team, it had no text messages that were older than one year. Holy crap.

    – Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) August 23, 2018

    There’s a saying – the coverup is worse than the crime – and it may apply here. It’s clumsy for the school to suspend Meyer three games for the way he botched his train wreck of a position coach. It feels like an all-or-nothing situation. Three games reeks of, “he wins, we need him, here’s a slap on the wrist

  79. 79.

    chris

    @Betty Cracker:

    but she’s sharp as a tack and super energetic. I don’t write her off as too old.

    Absolutely agree and if she runs and wins she will be a great president. But having watched how the office ages people I’d really like to see it go to someone younger.

    I’ve been watching some of my older friends go from 70 to 80 and it’s a huge change for most of them. But maybe she’ll be like my neighbour who waves at me when I’m walking Bert down the road after supper. Ruby is 101 and still lives alone.

  80. 80.

    TS (the original)

    it had no text messages that were older than one year

    I delete all my text messages every few months – is this an unusual thing to do?

  82. 82.

    Platonailedit

    Trump was aboard AFI on his way to W. Va. when he learned about Cohen and Manafort.

    Trump returned to the W.H. in a "rotten" mood—not apparently because of Cohen or Manafort, but because he felt the audience had been "flat" at his rally, WSJ reports. https://t.co/VLJZPUQsQw— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 23, 2018

    I blame cole/coal.

  84. 84.

    Gelfling 545

    @Schlemazel: I expect it’s those two because that is who the poll asked about. I suspect that most names suggested would surpass Trump’s, probably by a lot. If they asked about Baud, I’m sure he’d surpass Trump oo.

  86. 86.

    germy

    MAGA! (I think she’s got a future on Fox and Friends when Doocy retires)

    Late on Wednesday night, Fox News aired a lengthy interview with Paula Duncan, the first juror in Paul Manafort’s trial to go public. Duncan, 52, identified herself as a strong supporter of President Trump, saying she kept a Make America Great Again hat in the backseat of her car as she drove to the trial, and plans to vote for Trump again in 2020. However, Duncan said she became convinced that Manafort was guilty on all 18 counts of bank and tax fraud, and almost the entire jury agreed; she revealed that the jury deadlocked on ten of the counts due to a single juror.

    “We all tried to convince her to look at the paper trail,” Duncan said. “We laid it out in front of her again and again and she still said that she had a reasonable doubt. And that’s the way the jury worked. We didn’t want it to be hung, so we tried for an extended period of time to convince her, but in the end she held out and that’s why we have ten counts that did not get a verdict.”

    link

  87. 87.

    Betty Cracker

    @Chyron HR: I expect 2016 drama will animate the 2020 primaries to some extent, but I hope everyone can let it go after we have a nominee.

  88. 88.

    Hitlesswonder

    @Doug R: “her down”…it was actually woman. Which is interesting…just like Trump getting 52 percent of white women who voted in the last election.

  89. 89.

    p.a.

    @Doug R: Believe it was a ‘her’.

    Look to state governors for the next pres. nominee, not the Senate. D’s still have some governorships, yes? Also too Never Cuomo.

  90. 90.

    VOR

    @PPCLI:

    The next Democratic presidential primary should make it a requirement that candidates submit the last 5 years of tax returns to be eligible. Not only will that be rhetorically useful for demanding that Trump do the same, but it might make a certain candidate who has consistently failed to pony up his tax returns to show what he is hiding or get off the stage.

    If there is one thing we have learned over the past 3 years, it is that Trump cannot be shamed. The Democrats can set whatever standard they like, but if revealing tax returns, as an example, is not required by statute then Trump will not comply. Even if it is required by law, he will try to wriggle out of it. Shame and community standards are utterly useless against Trump.

  91. 91.

    SFAW

    @chris:

    The president says it should be illegal for criminals to co-operate with the government: https://t.co/sAwnPE238k— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) 23 August 2018

    JHC, he sounds like that other “Teflon Don.” I’d consider referring to Shitgibbon as capo di tutti capi, but his head is so far up his enormous ass that I’m not sure which part of his Gross Anatomy would be appropriate.

    He’s a fucking criminal, although certainly not a mastermind.

  92. 92.

    danielx

    @Platonailedit:

    There we go, the toddler-in-chief speaks!

    I heard that on NPR while dropping off the spawn at work. First thought, yep, he’s making threats – he’s getting truly rattled.

  95. 95.

    tobie

    @boatboy_srq:

    Maybe it’s just me, but after “impeachment is off the table” in 2006, “we’re not going to hold them accountable” in 2018 isn’t an especially appalling pitch.

    My snark meter is likely off, but the quote from Pelosi in the post is that we will “hold [Trump’s] administration accountable to the American people.” There are different ways to read this. One could be, “we will have a restoration of order, procedures will be followed, televised hearings will be held and on the basis of those hearings we will decide whether to impeach.” That might play well in swing districts where you need to get some Republicans and Independents to pull the lever for a Dem. I feel pretty good about an investigation that would be led by Adam Schiff, the new majority leader for the Intelligence Committee.

  97. 97.

    germy

    Late Wednesday night, President Donald Trump tweeted out that he asked Secretary of State Mike Pompeo “to closely study the South Africa land and farm seizures” of white farmers.

    That was Dylann Roof’s pet cause.

  101. 101.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud: that’s my understanding. The juror with the MAGAt hat says it was another juror they all tried to persuade to look at the paper trail, but she wouldn’t budge. I’m gonna blame the wackadoo preening judge

  102. 102.

    cintibud

    I don’t think there is any chance that Bernie would be nominated if he doesn’t release his tax returns. And there are probably good reasons why he can’t

  105. 105.

    Elizabelle

    I like Elizabeth Warren a lot.

    I tire of having accomplished women get told to sit down and shut up so that younger (and maybe not) white males get the spotlight.

    Senator Warren connects with her audience; she can convey a lot of realistic information well in not so many words.

  107. 107.

    rikyrah

    Get ready for the Autumn of Allen Weisselberg.

    That is the name we will soon be hearing constantly.

    — Adam Davidson (@adamdavidson) August 23, 2018

  108. 108.

    Elizabelle

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: NY Mag writer: take heart; government’s case was so overwhelming that, but for the one ridiculous holdout, would have just about run the field with convictions.

    Suggests government could retry. Would guess they will wait to see what happens in Manafort’s upcoming trial in September. Can they wait that long to announce if they will refile charges? If Manafort is down for the count, and imprisoned for years upon years, perhaps not the best use of government resources.

    And there are so many other bad fish to catch ….

  109. 109.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Amir Khalid:

    These two are not even plausible choices.

    But they’re the only possible Democratic candidates with national name recognition that aren’t named Clinton. Toss out ,e.g., Harris or Gillebrand & at least half the registered Democrats polled would say Wait, who? So think of this as “Agolf Twitler vs. {generic generally recognized Democrat}” – it’s not good for anything beyond that.

  110. 110.

    Elizabelle

    @cintibud: Plus, Saint Bernard is not a Democrat. Do not let him run on the Democratic ticket again. He has shown his stripes.

  111. 111.

    smintheus

    Is it fair to say that the fact the Fox News Manafort juror was not excluded from the jury pool is Ellis’ fault for insisting that the empaneling be done in a single day? The juror isn’t just a dope, she flat out admitted that she hoped Manafort would not be guilty because she thought the prosecutors were hounding her beloved cheeto jesus. That seems like exactly the kind of bias that needs to be vetted out.

    The don’t-try-to-confuse-me-with-the-facts lone holdout juror also sounds like an even harder line cheeto worshipper.

  112. 112.

    Eolirin

    @Baud: Maybe so, but without a clear front runner in the primary, Bernie’s not going to have nearly as easy a time of things. Hillary had big incentives to play nice, since it was clear she was gonna win very early on and she needed his base in the general. But his shtick does not work if he’s the presumptive frontrunner or even just a credible candidate. All the sketchiness will come up and a lot of scrutiny will be brought to areas he clearly does not want investigated if he chooses to run again. It may very well be career ending for him.

  115. 115.

    rikyrah

    Last week, Rand Paul asked Trump to lift sanctions on Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev, who, according to the Steele dossier, met with Michael Cohen in Prague to discuss “how deniable cash payments were to be made to hackers.”https://t.co/1H2aO6rUBV

    — Polly Sigh (@dcpoll) August 23, 2018

  116. 116.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    MSNBC has reverted to the old CNN model of anchorbot + reporter + professional Republican. Professional Republican just said trump has justifiable reasons to talk about a witch hunt. No pushback from the other two people on camera.

    @Elizabelle: wild, irresponsible, uninformed speculation here: there’s a lot of chatter that Mueller et al don’t seem particularly eager to cut a deal with Cohen. IANAL but I suspect that has something to do with the fact that he, as a witness, is actually less valuable than the tapes, texts, email, documents, etc that they already have. I wonder how badly Mueller et al need Manafort if they have, say, trump’s tax returns, and the identity of that infamous blocked number Junior called right before the Russian meeting in trump tower. And I’m pretty sure they have those.

  117. 117.

    Betty Cracker

    @cintibud: Sanders may have failed to release his returns for nefarious reasons — I don’t know. But I suspect the reason is they would show he’s a millionaire, which would be bad for his image. I also noticed he stopped railing against “millionayuhs and billionayuhs” in his stump speeches and now simply denounces control by “billionayuhs.” I further suspect that is not a coincidence! :)

  118. 118.

    tobie

    @Elizabelle: My understanding is that prosecution has to decide by the end of the month whether they will retry Manafort for the 10 counts. The layman in me says, “Go for it,” but Barbara McQuade was explaining on Rachel Maddow’s show that that might not be the best strategy. The judge evidently can issue a sentence for Manafort that accounts for the “preponderance of the evidence” even on counts where the jury did not convict.

  119. 119.

    germy

    @rikyrah:

    Get ready for the Autumn of Allen Weisselberg.

    Allen goes way back to the days of Fred. He was the grownup PEETUS inherited, along with Fred’s fortune. Allen is old school; I predict he’ll keep his lips sealed.

    But maybe it won’t matter if they get a look at his books.

  120. 120.

    LAO

    @smintheus:

    s it fair to say that the fact the Fox News Manafort juror was not excluded from the jury pool is Ellis’ fault for insisting that the empaneling be done in a single day?

    Short answer: nope

  121. 121.

    germy

    @Betty Cracker: I wonder if he’s more worried about what taxes would reveal about his significant other, rather than his own activities. He doesn’t want to find himself in the position of defending everything she’s done.

  122. 122.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @tobie: The judge evidently can issue a sentence for Manafort that accounts for the “preponderance of the evidence” even on counts where the jury did not convict.

    Wow. That’s a real surprise. I wonder if Judge Wackadoo will come down harder in sentencing after the blowback he’s gotten from the trial. I wonder if it will matter after a less friendly judge and possibly less friendly jury get through with Paulie Ostrich

  123. 123.

    LAO

    @tobie: Acquitted or uncharged conduct (which would include conduct for which a mistrial was declared) can be used to enhance a defendant’s sentence because the standard of proof for sentencing is much lower than the standard for guilt. It’s a shitty rule, derived from United States v. Watts, 519 U.S. 148 (1997).

  124. 124.

    cintibud

    @Baud: also there might be more details about his wife’s legal problems.

    I predict a lot of foot stomping and whining from the Bernie Bros as I really can’t see him winning.

  125. 125.

    MomSense

    @p.a.:

    Think opposite of trump. We have a long history in this country of electing the opposite of the previous president. Think people who are calm, measured, background as AGs or US attorneys who are not viewed as partisan.

  126. 126.

    Baud

    @cintibud: I don’t think he is likely to in. But who knows how he’ll do in a crowded field, and where we’ll be as a party in 2020? I’m done with predictions after 2016.

  130. 130.

    Bill Arnold

    @hilts:
    I’m not tracking South African politics at all; this Bloomberg piece might be a decent backgrounder.
    Why Land Seizure Is Back in News in South Africa (1 March 2018)
    The Bloomberg article suggests that this is populist politics. Zimbabwe is not mentioned, but it has (arguably similar though politically different land appropriation dynamics) been a big part of the American right-wing narratives about Africa for a long time. Don’t have the willpower at the moment to forage in that intellectual cesspool. .

    The ANC lost voters in 2016 local elections to parties including the EFF, and Zuma’s reputation eroded the party’s standing to such an extent that it was at risk of losing its majority in 2019 elections. The party needs policies that will gain traction among the nation’s poor, who make up the majority of the electorate.

  131. 131.

    LAO

    @Baud: I wish. And we (defense attorneys) argued it did. But no circuit court or the Supremes bought what we were selling.

  132. 132.

    The Moar You Know

    It’ll be politically impossible for the Dems to simply bar him from running.

    @Baud: More to the point, it’s legally impossible. The Dem party doesn’t have to give him money or any press (and shouldn’t) but if ol’ Wilmer wants to run as a Dem it’s not possible to stop him from doing so.

    And he will, so we better figure out how we’re going to deal with that, because he won’t be running to win, but to destroy. His schtick only works when Republicans are in charge.

  133. 133.

    Baud

    @LAO: Wow. That’s news to me. So what the hell does Booker stand for if judges can consider criminal acts not determined by a jury?

  134. 134.

    cintibud

    @Baud: “I don’t think he is likely to in. But who knows how he’ll do in a crowded field, and where we’ll be as a party in 2020? I’m done with predictions after 2016”

    Yeah the field will almost certainly be crowded at first and we can expect that he will try to plug along until the bitter end with his built in base of support. But no more kid glove treatment for him – he will get blasted by the other candidates early and often.I least I would hope so – he has probably never faced a real negative campaign.Let’s see how he stands up once he’s the target and not the attacker

  138. 138.

    LAO

    @Baud: A judge can’t consider facts (not admitted to by the defendant or proven to a jury) that enhance a sentence BEYOND the statutory maximum of the crime of conviction. So, if a defendant was found guilty of a crime for which the statutory max sentence is 20 years — a judge can’t sentence a defendant to more than 20 years based on uncharged conduct. The US sentencing guidelines, which is what people talk about when discussing federal sentencing, most often produce a sentence well below the statutory max, and the enhancements relate to the guidelines calculation. The guidelines convert in “total offense conduct” into a sentencing range. (But, note one positive outcome of Booker and it’s progeny is that the guideline are now advisory and not mandatory,).

  140. 140.

    Bill Arnold

    @Bill Arnold:
    The more interesting thing, agreed, is why/how the SA land expropriation thought surfaced in the realDonaldTrump twitter feed now; was it just random distraction by Fox people or is it a part of a plan?

  142. 142.

    Baud

    @LAO: If I’m understanding correctly, if a statute says you can’t go above 20 years unless certain facts are found, those facts have to be found by the jury. But a judge still has discretion to consider non-jury facts for sentences less than 20 years. Correct?

  143. 143.

    oldgold

    In the Manafort trial the Judge’s remarks were outrageous, but nothing compared to the truncated voir dire he insisted on. Yikes.

  145. 145.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    @Bill Arnold:

    I’m not tracking South African politics at all

    Perhaps Trevor Noah, having grown up there, will step in to educate us. I hope so.

  146. 146.

    Aleta

    I’ve noticed that the people 70- 80-95 who are still running around working and don’t ‘look their age’ don’t challenge my assumptions until I happen to learn their age. Last year I learned my neighbor, who I’ve known for years, is 79 and I still can’t believe it. She’s running crews of younger house painters and outdoor workers, has maintenance contracts with about 15 high-end summer houses, is on town zoning and planning boards, runs a few other show. Of people I know/knew, my observation is that it’s loss of eyesight or a broken hip that doesn’t heal well or that finally takes high functioning people in their 90s down mentally. (Used to include side effects from aging while smoking.)

    The predictor of functioning could be less the number and more which organ or interaction punks out as we age, and the effect of that on our brain. I think this is an area where our learned assumptions (+ not knowing ages or history of most people) don’t tell us anything about single extraordinary individuals.

    It’s less likely that an 85 yr old picked at random can bushwhack over a mountain better than I can, but a specific one who has trained, has experience, knows the mountain, whose mind doesn’t quit under stress, muscles and brain are efficient … the prediction changes. For a President, willingness to sit through a zillion meetings without going nuts, and some other social stuff, should probably be in there too.

  148. 148.

    Aleta

    Bernie [email protected]
    If Texans are prepared to work hard, stand up, fight back, talk to people who voted for Trump, make sure that every friend you have comes out and votes — yeah, I believe that Texas can go blue.

    Vagina Avenger™ @monicaisliberal
    Okay I will take the bait. This is why you lost Texas in the primary along with many southern states. This perception we haven’t been working fucking hard for decades. Maybe because it’s brown/black faces doing the work, that you believe we haven’t been prepared.

  150. 150.

    LAO

    @Baud: Close enough. Conviction of the statute creates the potential that the defendant will receive the maximum sentence allowed under the statute. It is the ceiling. It’s rare in the feds because sentence is really driven by the guidelines. And the Judge is free, on a preponderance standard, to determine what guideline enhancements apply.

    For example — one enhancement is role in the offense. A defendant could have 2-levels subtracted off his computation if he plays a minor OR he could have 4 levels added if he was a leader or organizer.

    I’m working on a sentencing memo at the moment. My client’s total offense level is a level 39, Criminal History Category II — which translates into a sentencing range of 292-365 months. The statutes of conviction carrying potential life sentences. There is also a statutory minimum of 120 months. Meaning the best I can do is 10 years and the worst is Life.

  152. 152.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    @chris:

    The second thing I read was that Senator Professor Warren has put her tax returns online… Hope she’s just trying to set an example because, as much as I love her, she’s also too old to be president.

    I don’t think Dems should nominate her for president, but I want Warren to run in the 2020 primary for 2 reasons:
    1) I want many of her ideas to gain political capital within the Democratic caucus and eventually become law, under our next Dem president.
    2) I want her running in the primary to suck as much “progressive” oxygen away from Bernie as possible. The more conventional Dem faction will be split among who-knows how many candidates, so I want the “progressive” faction to be split as well.

  153. 153.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @LAO: doesn’t surprise me, he’s testing the waters, and when Lindsey Graham and Susan Collins mewl about “oh my goodness that wouldn’t be cricket but it’s certainly his right to do so” he’ll take that as the green light it is

  155. 155.

    MomSense

    @rikyrah:

    He and his supporters are so entitled and arrogant that if you go easy on them, they get even worse. It’s always threats that they won’t support us if we don’t acquiesce. I’m so done with that. Why should we give the least reliable lowest info people everything they want?

  156. 156.

    Mnemosyne

    @germy:

    Unless she’s lying and was secretly the holdout juror herself, this seems like the system worked. Yes, she’s a MAGAt, but she looked at the evidence with an open mind and realized that the evidence showed that Manafort was guilty, so she voted to find him guilty on all counts. I hate her politics, but she did not do anything wrong and took her responsibilities seriously.

  158. 158.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @MomSense: I saw some twitter chat, so FWIW, that the B-Bros in FL have declared that they can’t— they’re just too high-minded and principled– they can’t support Gwen Graham because she’s a millionaire and establishment-y

  159. 159.

    MomSense

    @Betty Cracker:

    He also switched from the 1% to the .01% as I figure he is in the 1% given what we have pieced together about their assets and income. But we all figured this out during the campaign. Too bad the media chose not to notice.

  161. 161.

    chris

    @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:

    1) I want many of her ideas to gain political capital within the Democratic caucus and eventually become law, under our next Dem president.
    2) I want her running in the primary to suck as much “progressive” oxygen away from Bernie as possible. The more conventional Dem faction will be split among who-knows how many candidates, so I want the “progressive” faction to be split as well.

    Ooo, yes, please!

  162. 162.

    gwangung

    @MomSense: While that may have an effect on his supporters, I just don’t find that much of a reason to support or not support him. Given average intelligence and the situation he was in, I think it’s a slam dunk to get into that wealth bracket. You have to work hard NOT to be.

  164. 164.

    MCA1

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: For me it’s not even the age, per se, it’s the Boomerness. Apologies to the many fine Boomer jackals here, but it’s just about time for your generation to get off the fucking stage. Half of y’all whipsawed from singing kumbaya around a bonfire of idealism to gleefully pouring accelerant on the bonfire of end stage capitalism, and gave us perpetual culture war in the process. I’m tired of the way Boomers frame the world, and weren’t we all a lot happier and calmer with an X’er in the White House for 8 years? //halfway tongue in cheek, halfway dead serious.

  167. 167.

    Baud

    At some point, there should be a front page post about the growing prison strike. Almost all the blogs and media I follow seem to be ignoring it.

  168. 168.

    MomSense

    @gwangung:

    I don’t begrudge that wealth bracket, just the hypocrisy of bashing it in his stump speeches until he figured out he may be exposed.

  171. 171.

    Chyron HR

    @Aleta:

    Oh my god is this mendacious piece of shit still doing the “Trump supporters are my chosen people, the glorious white working master race, each of them is worth 100 neoliberal democrat identity politicals” schtick?

  172. 172.

    Betty Cracker

    @gwangung: Depends on how he made the money. If someone writes books, gives speeches, etc., fine. But lots of folks enter politics without money and emerge as millionaires because they’re showered with sweet deals in office. It might be legal, but it’s not right, and I don’t blame people for being fed up with it.

  173. 173.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @MCA1: but it’s just about time for your generation to get off the fucking stage

    as a Gen-X, I’m always baffled by this. It’s like people who say HRC didn’t allow anyone to challenge her. If you have to be given the stage, you probably won’t be able to do much with it. There are a lot of younger politicians I quite like, except for their impertinence in being younger than I. I think my two favorites in what’s looking like the 2020 field are K. Harris and Chris Murphy. I’m baffled (again, often) by the fact that they don’t seem to generate much enthusiasm, but my charisma-meter is broken

  174. 174.

    MCA1

    @Baud: In some senses I’m OK with that. Dangers of generalizing about an entire age cohort acknowledged, Boomers went from embracing radicalism on one end of the spectrum to radicalism on the other over the course of their adult lives. Small “c” conservatism doesn’t bother me all that much. I mean, in many respects Obama’s embrace of incrementalism was conservative.

    I’m talking dispositional conservatism, rather than policy preference right leaning conservatism, as the term is probably more often used, though. Were you meaning the latter? That would surprise me.

  177. 177.

    gwangung

    @Betty Cracker: I’m just saying, at the income levels he and his wife were at, for as long as he served, you really have to work at being a spendthrift not to end up in the 1%. I’m basing this on my years of financial analysis of potential donors to a non-profit; I just can’t begrudge anybody who gets into that bracket with normal prudence and hard work.

  178. 178.

    The Moar You Know

    For me it’s not even the age, per se, it’s the Boomerness. Apologies to the many fine Boomer jackals here, but it’s just about time for your generation to get off the fucking stage. Half of y’all whipsawed from singing kumbaya around a bonfire of idealism to gleefully pouring accelerant on the bonfire of end stage capitalism, and gave us perpetual culture war in the process. I’m tired of the way Boomers frame the world, and weren’t we all a lot happier and calmer with an X’er in the White House for 8 years? //halfway tongue in cheek, halfway dead serious.

    @MCA1: Obama was the second to last year of the Boomers. I’d love to claim him as one of mine, but he’s not. And it really shows. The older members of Gen X are extremely bad news, politically. We went overwhelmingly for Reagan (save for those very few who didn’t, and those (me) tend to be pretty fucking militant about our liberalism, often to everyone’s detriment – see Bernie Sanders as an example). The younger part of the cohort is not so conservative but just extremely…this is the wrong word but it will have to do. Dumb. Don’t think anything through.

    If you think the Boomers were bad, you’ll be praying for their return after you get a taste of my generation. Paul Ryan’s a Gen Xer, for example. He’s pretty moderate compared to most of the folks I went to high school with.

  179. 179.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    @Baud: Vox has front paged the prison strike for a few days. I wouldn’t have heard about it otherwise. Say what you want about Ezra Klein and co., but they do good work a lot of the time!

  182. 182.

    tobie

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I’m with you on Kamala Harris and Chris Murphy. We’re all so focused on domestic issues that we just don’t have the energy to follow what Trump is doing abroad. Murphy was the first US Senator to condemn the bombing of a school bus in Yemen. The deed was supposedly done by Saudi Arabia with US equipment but I would like to know if the US played a role in identifying the target. Kudos to him for speaking up on this. I also loved his videos on the fight to save Obamacare in 2017.

  183. 183.

    Jeffro

    @Ryan:

    Ugh. I am so sick of hearing rumblings about Bernie and Biden.

    Fresh faces please Dems! (also, must be *actual* Dems, as the former most certainly is not)

  184. 184.

    MCA1

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I think the takeaway for Manafort and his attorneys, as they look forward to his D.C. trial, is that hoping they get a MAGAt or two in the jury pool isn’t as valuable as they may previously have thought. What they really need is people who can’t connect the logical dots that everyone else in the room can. If I’m on Team Mueller in voir dire for that trial I’m screening for high education level. Maybe just ask everyone what they got on the reading comp. section of their SATs. ;^)

  185. 185.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @MCA1:

    and weren’t we all a lot happier and calmer with an X’er in the White House for 8 years?

    I was born in 1964, and there has never been a president younger than me. Who are you talking about?

  186. 186.

    MCA1

    @The Moar You Know: Certainly borderline, but Strauss and Howe have born in ’61 as X’er (I think Obama was born that year). They saw a lot more commonality in the experiences those kids had growing up with mine (I’m right in the middle of the cohort so I’ve lived some of your observations), than they did with those who grew up in the post-war economic boom of the ’50’s, leading into the trauma of the ’60’s when they were teens.

    I think our X’er cynicism is well-earned and has engendered a high regard for practicality. Paul Ryan’s an exception to the rule who is much more beloved by his elders and puppetmasters than by his contemporaries, from what I can see.

  187. 187.

    Bill Arnold

    @Aleta:
    Your whole comment, and particularly this:

    The predictor of functioning could be less the number and more which organ or interaction punks out as we age, and the effect of that on our brain.

    is the most concisely cogent thing I’ve read on the subject; thanks.
    Brain function, and sensory deficits that adversely affect brain function. Those, including conditions that causally affect them (including over long time scales), should be most of the focus of medicine and much of the focus of medical research, IMO. (Well, that and slowing aging with concurrent societal mechanisms for slowing/reversing accumulation of wealth and power. Cough to increase our collective focus on long-term non-greedy planning. :-) )

    willingness to sit through a zillion meetings without going nuts,

    Bladder control (or better, the social skills to enforce mandatory breaks) is also important.

  189. 189.

    Ella in New Mexico

    Ok, so I’m going to establish myself here as the resident “Anti-Balloon-Juice Conventional Wisdom Curmudgeon” for the official 2020 Primary.

    I will not accept that a person of decent health, clear and sound mind, good and noble character and depth and breadth of experience is not qualified to be President of the United States simply because of a date on a calendar. Where I come from, that’s called ‘AGEISM”.

    We are literally in Constitutional Crisis here. It will take our best leaders to help heal the wounds of this administration. People like Joe Biden and (Nancy Pelosi in the House, for that matter) are maximally experienced, capable and positioned to do just that. Pick a similarly qualified but less experienced, less well-known VP in case something happens to the President, if you must who can follow in their footsteps but stop with the “He/She is too old to do this” crap because we literally cannot afford that right now. If they are the electable candidates, we need to go with them and go hard.

    Typical of Dems, we are acting like this is a Las Vegas buffet-style election where we have the option of fighting amongst ourselves over minor differences between candidates, meanwhile the Russ0-Koch-Republican party is finding ways to interfere yet again with our ability to yank our government out of their filthy dirty kakisto-oligarchist hands. They’d love to see us fighting amongst ourselves, just like the last time, so we don’t see what they’re doing behind the curtain to rig yet another election.

    Easy way they can do that is to get us to put up a candidate that doesn’t have the confidence and charisma and substance in the minds of the majority of voters, including the “cross-backs” from the 3rd parties and the indies on the Trump train who regret their decisions now,, but still believe it was mostly because Hillary Clinton was too horrible to vote for (not true, but that’s what we got so we need to deal with it). So he or she loses.

    It’s way too early for us to even be making any decision about who is or isn’t young enough to run. And in light of what we know about people’s longevity, it’s just wrong-headed thinking. I worked in a Geriatric health clinic this summer that won’t even take you as a patient unless your 75 years old or older–because YOU’RE TOO FUCKING YOUNG TO BE CALLED GERIATRIC. My precepting NP was 78 years old, mentally sharp as a tack, and still works as a river rafting guide on her summer vacations because she’s in better shape than 95% of us here. I had patient’s in their 80’s and 90’s still teaching college-level physics classes and taking 6-week tours of Europe because they still can. 75 is the new 55 for a ton of the population out there.

    And seeing that I’m making a huge career change in my mid-50’s and I fully expect to work well into my 70’s at least. I expect to be one of those folks.
    Don’t be surprised if you see this same argument posted regularly over the next few months. Don’t give me the too old crap. 2020 is life and death for America. Focus on issues not age. We need he best we have, period. We don’t have the luxury to fart around again.

  190. 190.

    ??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??

    @Ella in New Mexico:
    It’s called having new perspectives. People from different walks of life will have those. We need new ideas and neither Biden or Bernie have them.

  193. 193.

    Betty Cracker

    @Baud: Menendez is the only national-level Democrat who comes to mind, and only because of his recent corruption trial, in which he seems to have beaten the charges more because bribery is legal than because he didn’t do anything wrong. (Bob McDonnell’s trial was a real eye-opener about how legal open bribery is.) I haven’t made a study of it, but I think it’s fair to say in general that millionaires are over-represented in Congress. Folks like Marco Rubio, one of the poorer U.S. senators, always seem to find sweet loan deals when they need one. They have access to resources regular people don’t have on the basis of holding public office. I don’t think that’s fair.

  194. 194.

    Bill Arnold

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym:

    Perhaps Trevor Noah, having grown up there, will step in to educate us. I hope so.

    That would be good. In the meantime I see a on-topic NYMag piece by Eric Levitz:
    Trump Echoes Neo-Nazi Propaganda About South Africa (That He Heard on Fox News)
    Summary paragraphs (but read it):

    It’s worth stipulating that Afrikaners — like any ethnic minority population in a democracy — have some real basis for fearing their collective vulnerability to the whims of the majority. And the fact that said majority recently won a right to expropriate white land — and is losing patience with their government’s attempt to honor that right while balancing the interests of white landowners — is a reasonable cause for some Afrikaners to worry about the prospect of mass, race-based violence.
    But at present, no such violence — or indications of the imminent onset of such violence — exists. And white South Africans continue to command a wildly disproportionate share of their nation’s wealth, a privilege they owe to several generations of race-based brutality.

  196. 196.

    Bill Arnold

    @??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??:

    It’s called having new perspectives. People from different walks of life will have those. We need new ideas and neither Biden or Bernie have them.

    Then make new perspectives and ideas, with solid intellectual backing, be the litmus test (or one of them), not chronological age.
    (I agree about J. Biden and B. Sanders.)

  197. 197.

    stan

    D

    on’t give me the too old crap. 2020 is life and death for America. Focus on issues not age. We need he best we have, period. We don’t have the luxury to fart around again.

    Right on!

    Also, I assume the “too old” criticism really means “younger voters won’t support candidate X”. Almost all the younger voters I know love Warren, so by that standard she’s not “too old”. if “too old” means something else, by all means tell me.

  198. 198.

    Ella in New Mexico

    @??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??: Name me one “new idea” right now that Biden wouldn’t comprehend or be able to accommodate and ask yourself it that “new idea” will matter if Trump (or worse, Pence) get’s re-elected?

    The new ideas will come. But if our Republic falls, good luck with the new ideas ever being anything other than vodka-soaked diatribes around a camp fire.

  199. 199.

    Ella in New Mexico

    @stan: Yes!!!

    All of the 20 or so young voters (under age 32) in my family/extended family voted for Bernie and when he lost were so disillusioned and angry about “how he was treated in the Demo Party” it was all I could do to get half of them to vote for Hillary at all. They got the whole “Trump is a danger to the country” idea, and even with reservations recognized Hillary was NOT. They’re the older ones. The other, younger half voted for Evan McMullen, Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, or simply stayed home. In New Mexico, they could do that with no worries about throwing he vote to Trump–they made statement votes because they could be confident she’d still get the Electoral votes. Nationally, though, that won’t be the case once again in 2020.

    They don’t give a fuck about age. They give a lot of fuck about a system that reflects their values. If our candidate does that they’ll vote for him/her hands down.

  201. 201.

    SFAW

    @MCA1:

    Well, thanks for sharing that.

    I’m tired of the way Boomers frame the world, and weren’t we all a lot happier and calmer with an X’er in the White House for 8 years?

    Tired, are you? Don’t fret, someone will be along in a bit to send you for a nap. After that, we can send someone to teach you about when the Baby Boom actually ended. [Hint: it was three years after Obama’s birth. Yes, I know others have already pointed that out.]

    but Strauss and Howe have born in ’61 as X’er

    How nice for them. They’re wrong, of course, but it’s still nice for them. Maybe they can get a Participation Medal for their efforts.

  202. 202.

    jl

    @Ella in New Mexico: I agree too. Most voters don’t care about surface PR, which is why silly gimmicks like Paul Ryan wearing his back backwards in gym bear between two dumbbells (real dumbbells, not other GOPers) doesn’t make an impact. I don’t think most voters care about the HRC/BS feud, they care about trust in the person to do what they say, and that the person clearly says what they intend to do, with specifics. Which I think is why Obama (HRC wing, center-left), and BS (lefty ranter) both get very high poll ratings, they have people’s trust that they are straightforward and honest, and they are willing to propose specific policies (I won’t get into which of those two actually deserves the trust, since opinions differ, though both are preferable by several miles to Trump or any Republican).

    I don’t even think ‘likability’ is all that important. I never thought HRC’s problem was lack of likability, since that changed a lot. I think HRC had a problem in responding effectively to the unprecedented GOP smear campaign against her (abetted by the media) and in responding to the mood of the country. And even though, she did better with popular vote than Trump, just due to a constellation of issues, lost a few states by a razor thin margin. HRC could easily have gotten elected while most of the voting population didn’t find her likable at all. She may even have done herself harm by worrying too much about it.

    I think specific policy proposals that show you are willing to take risks to fight for the average voter are more important than a lot of media and pollster hype about being electable. The corporate run media has a lot of interest in ignoring substantive policy, and they do their best the tamp down any discussion of policy substance on economics, overall welfare of the average worker, etc. It doesn’t fit the self-interest of the corporate owners and doesn’t fit their business model.

  203. 203.

    jl

    @jl: Meant to type ‘silly gimmicks like Paul Ryan wearing his cap backwards in gym bear between two dumbbells ‘
    No edit function for me today.

  204. 204.

    Citizen Alan

    @Baud:

    Doesn’t matter. Wilmer doesn’t have a chance because in 2020, it will be a crowded field. Instead of one overwhelming front-runner who makes the tactical decision not to go negative on a second-place vanity candidate, it will be a crowd of a half-dozen or more, none of whom will even hesitate to drag out St. Bernie’s dirty laundry. More than a few may well see a path to victory in running against the left flank of the party.

  207. 207.

    Bobby Thomson

    @Ella in New Mexico: that might make sense if Biden were a sure thing to be elected, but as an actual presidential candidate he has been horrible. Like Giuliani level bad.

    He gives a good speech and glad hands well and understands the importance of symbols, but if past performance is any indication of how well he would do now, he won’t go anywhere.

    Look where the Obama and Clinton staffers go. That will be the tell.

  209. 209.

    Ella in New Mexico

    @jl: Bingo! 100%. People want someone they think has decent values and good ideas, and who they can count on to behave in a manner befitting the Presidency of the United States. They don’t care how old they are.

  210. 210.

    Ella in New Mexico

    @Chyron HR:

    Yeah, no, anyone who claims the 2016 primary was “rigged” can fuck right off.

    @Bobby Thomson:

    She’s a shameless demagogue who helped own goal the Democrats and continues to do so

    .

    Keep dragging that old family feud out in regards to Warren and see how it works for ya. Heads up: it’s a dog.

    Focus people, focus. @Bobby Thomson:

    but if past performance is any indication of how well he would do now, he won’t go anywhere.

    And yet if I recall, this whole thread was headed by a poll showing Trump trails Biden in a generic ballot by 12 points. APPARENTLY he’s not as bad of a campaigner as you think:

    Biden leads Trump, 43 percent to 31 percent, and Sanders’ lead over the president is virtually the same, 44 percent to 32 percent.

    Trump also trails Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — the first-term senator he has mocked as “Pocahontas,” which Warren calls a racial slur — but by a smaller margin, 34 percent to 30 percent. A plurality of voters, 36 percent, are undecided.

    So, my conclusion is we’re going to need someone who embodies the characters, personas, and policy proposals these three old-timer’s represent in the minds of the American voters. Might have to actually be one of them to accomplish that–although I will admit I’m more inclined to support an ACTUAL Democrat as opposed to a person trying to catch a ride on the back of our train.

  211. 211.

    satby

    @??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??: @MCA1: you both are demonstrating incredibly ill informed ageist bigotry.
    Some of the dumbest, most poorly informed and lacking in contextual history opinion holders are people younger than me (m d-boomer, 1955).
    Goku, especially, who I try to cut some slack because of your age. You constantly ask questions that you could have simply used Google to answer, and you’re going to say Boomers can’t adapt to new thinking. Total bullshit.

  212. 212.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Bobby Thomson: @Ella in New Mexico: that might make sense if Biden were a sure thing to be elected, but as an actual presidential candidate he has been horrible.

    Yup

    Like Giuliani level bad.

    Hey now!

    It would/will be interesting to see how all the stuff HRC got pilloried for supporting as first lady (NAFTA, the crime bill) played out for Biden, and Biden didn’t just support Bush on Iraq, he used to brag about writing the AUMF with his good friend John McCain.

    And people here will get made that I mentioned it, but Hunter Biden is a huge weakness for a Democratic candidate.

  213. 213.

    jl

    @Ella in New Mexico: If it’s Biden, or BS or Warren, and anyone gives guff about age, Ill just say that they are in far better shape than Trump, regardless of age, and they picked good veeps.

    And, I am sick of overemphasis on supposedly indispensable individuals and personalities in US politics. Suppose Boehner had persuaded Obama to be an out and loud smoker, and Obama said he’d handle the office by ramping up to 3 packs a day? Well, Obama picked Biden as veep. ‘nough said. The better policy team would continue no matter what.

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