BREAKING: WSJ reports that Allen Weisselberg, President Trump’s longtime financial gatekeeper, was granted immunity in Michael Cohen investigation. pic.twitter.com/vWNpHxKRwD
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) August 24, 2018
The Cohen information sure as hell seemed like it was screaming systemic tax and accounting fraud in the Trump Organization given how he was reimbursed.
And now the Trump Organization CFO has immunity. I bet his future job will be to sherpa forensic accountants hired by both the Federal government and the State of New York through the Trump Organization’s books. But I am neither a lawyer nor an accountant…
Open thread.
Adam L Silverman
Yep, this is the big flip that everyone’s been waiting for. Expect a full meltdown from the President in short order.
the Conster
Being picked off one by one, until the last ones standing of the inner circle are Ivanka and Jared. At the begining of August I said August was gonna be lit, but September… boy howdy.
lollipopguild
Infrastructure week is really getting exciting!
Bruce K
It’s a pity we couldn’t have had this moment two years ago.
In other news, apparently Senator McCain is discontinuing medical treatment. I’ll refrain from comment beyond what I’ve said about him through the end of last year.
the Conster
Picking them off one by one, until the last ones standing from the inner circle is Jared and Ivanka. I said at the beginning of the month that August was gonna be lit, but hello, September!
yam
Weisselberg not only knows where the bodies are buried, but has the receipts for the shovels…
Lee
Lebron James tweeted out Beto’s answer about NFL players kneeling. Mr James has 41 million followers.
Mike in NC
Front page of USA Today: Trump team in high anxiety
Fair Economist
The indictments from this could be boggling in scope. Every condo sold to a Russian is a money laundering charge. Probably most of the tax filings are tax fraud charges. There’s also going to be a lot of bank fraud (the banks had good reason to stop loaning). And then there will be a blizzard of accompanying wire fraud and conspiracy charges involved in setting everything up.
Seriously, there could be literally thousands of charges in the indictment – basically as many as Mueller wants.
Jerzy Russian
Question for Mr. Anderson: Does my health plan covers Schadenfreude overload? If not, what should I do?
Shantanu Saha
“Sherpa” implies that the Trump organized crime syndicate is a mound of bullshit as high as the Himalayas.
Platonailedit
@yam:
LOL.
gwangung
Tick tock. Tick tock.
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: IMO which is always wrong, the mean tweets won’t start until after midnight. His lawyers are advising him to stay low.
Trump’s dinner with the Ohio Republicans should be fun tonight. Melania is suppose to accompany him and she’ll be all smiles.
Another Scott
FWIW.
The last Twittler rant was about Sessions and Hillary – but that was about 4 hours ago.
It’s only Thursday – it seems like this week has lasted about 2 months, and it’s not over yet.
73 days to go. Eyes on the prize!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Just Chuck
@Adam L Silverman:
Distinguishable from any other day how, exactly?
Fair Economist
@Mike in NC: Are they also feeling “isolated”? Oh, wait, that report would be from Haberman at the NYT.
Fair Economist
@Shantanu Saha:
So an accurate title, then.
hells littlest angel
@Mike in NC: I just don’t see Mel Brooks in the Trump biopic lead. Too likable.
Dave L
Now – I’m finally willing to believe that they’re going to bring Trump down. Impeachment still looks close to impossible; could he be persuaded to resign in return for family-wide immunity? What’s it going to take?
Just Chuck
@Fair Economist: Christ, is there anything like a “class action prosecution”? Or is that pretty much what RICO is about?
Shantanu Saha
@Another Scott: It’s Friday here in New York
Marcopolo
So who wants to take a stab at how this all ends other than Trump resigning at some point, then Pence being sworn in and pardoning him? After all, I think we are now down to the only people left to flip are just the kids, wife & son-in-law (maybe Hannity). At this point conspiracy with Russia to win the election almost seems like icing on the cake–who needs Manafort–except maybe Weisselberg can shed light on that as well.
Shantanu Saha
@Fair Economist: I didn’t say it wasn’t. I wouldn’t want to be downhill when it starts raining.
geg6
@Adam L Silverman:
I was just saying this to my John last night. I said if the Trump CFO flips, the shit is really going to hit the fan.
Betty Cracker
I love the end of that WSJ article:
So being a cheap prick might be his undoing at long last. Another Watergate-reminiscent aspect of this is that Trump needn’t have paid off Daniels, et al, in the first place. The slack-jawed nimrods who voted for him knew he was a sleazy bastard — that’s what they like about him.
Elizabelle
@Mike in NC:
Good headline. Trump and Company make you think of Mel Brooks.
We are
jackassesjackals in suspense. A nation in suspense. This has to turn out well. It’s coming from inside the house!tobie
@Fair Economist: Wouldn’t it be nice if former Justice Kennedy’s son was somehow implicated in all this? He headed the real estate division at Deutsche Bank, which was the one bank to give Trump loans. If Justice Kennedy and his handpicked replacement nominee Kavanaugh go down in all this, all the better.
Elizabelle
@Marcopolo: I hope the Republicans will not keep the presidency they illegitimately won.
I hope Pence is out of the picture, and we get a caretaker Democrat who will at least stanch the bleeding until 2020.
Just Chuck
@Marcopolo: Unfortunately, President Pence will be a thing: the political will to impeach Pence along with Trump in one stroke just isn’t there. It could be made very clear that a pardon will itself be impeachment-worthy, and he’s going to have an actively hostile opposition congress that perhaps could be persuaded to locate its huevos once again.
catclub
@Fair Economist: I think you might be reading a little more into than is there.
It says he was granted immunity for the Michael Cohen issue, not for a general search/fishing expedition.
Adam L Silverman
@Fair Economist: And there will be parallel NY state and NY City investigations. The kids are all in a lot of trouble. Cy Vance, the NY DA, caught a lot of shit last year for allowing Kasowitz to talk him out of prosecuting Ivanka and Jr and then his campaign got a donation from Kasowitz’s firm. Nothing illegal there, but it looked funny. And Vance will want to bury that and the only way to do it is to go all in on these. And that’s going to be done by burying the kids.
And remember, the immunity for Weisselberg and Pecker is going to include cooperating with NY City, NY State, and Federal investigators. It already leaked this AM that NY, at least, is preparing state level tax fraud charges against Manafort in case the President pardons him.
jc
The good news is that Trump’s ability to weasel his way out of accountability is crashing and burning, finally.
MattF
TiToMoFu. as they say.
Adam L Silverman
@Jerzy Russian: If it lasts more than four hours, please seek appropriate medical care.
Immanentize
I should re-up points I made about this stuff in the now dying morning thread:
1) Just because people are granted immunity by the prosecutor (Wesselberg, Pecker, Howard, etc.) does NOT necessarily mean that they flipped or cut a deal. Prosecutors often grant immunity to secure grand jury testimony of smaller fishes, whether those people want to testify or not. Then, immunized, if they do not spill everything — and I do mean everything including documents, records, emails, texts, etc. — they they are on the hook for contempt of court or perjury. Immunity is a wicked tool of prosecutors.
2) When people (media especially) say “Cohen made no deal,” they are missing the whole long procedure that is a federal criminal case. Cohen’s “deal” was the very charges to which he pleaded guilty. Now, he no longer has any fifth amendment right to not incriminate himself and remain silent on those charges. So, for Cohen to get the lowest sentence possible (under the complicated federal guideline system) he needs to get point for good actions. The most important one is that he must give the prosecutor and court (via the ‘probation office’ which makes the pre-sentence report and recommendation to the judge about sentencing) complete and accurate information about everything he knows about those cases regarding which he admitted his guilt. This will probably include a visit or two to one or more grand juries…. If Cohen doesn’t come completely clean, not only does he risk perjury or contempt charges regarding the grand jury appearance(s), he will not be able to claim his “substantial assistance” and ” acceptance of responsibility” bonus points in his federal sentencing which can allow the judge to greatly reduce his presumptive sentence.
It is amazing how representing low level drug criminals has allowed me to now comment intelligently on the President of the US and his gang of hairy cranksters.
feebog
@Shantanu Saha:
Maybe Scott needs a lesson in time zones from Trump. Also Friday in Phoenix. Hot, also, too.
Just Chuck
@catclub: The Michael Cohen issue has Trump as an unindicted co-conspirator. You don’t fish for lampreys, you catch the fish they’re attached to. Or something.
Adam L Silverman
@JPL: I’d be surprised if they don’t try to rescheduled and just get him to Bedminster to play golf ASAP.
Uncle Cosmo
@gwangung: More like
but who’s counting (down)?
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: Today is Friday.
catclub
@Marcopolo: one ‘other than’ is that Pence was picked by Manafort. I can hope that he goes down due to Russian connections. Although I doubt it will happen, I can still hope.
MazeDancer
Weisselberg, Weisselberg he’s our man!
If he can’t do it, nobody can!
This is the most upbeat I’ve felt since November 2016. Immunity! Full walk-away immunity. The Feds don’t pass out immunity for nothing.
Plus, Weisselberg has NYState and NYC law lining up after the Feds. Alan Weisselberg is 71. He can retire and spend the next 20 to 25 years golfing. Not in lock-up.
Immanentize
@catclub: Yes, but the ‘Michael Cohen issue’ as you call it includes the question whether the Trump Organization (and who in that organization) knew it was defrauding others when it used money for payments to influence the campaign, but declared them as something else for tax evasion and campaign finance reporting purposes.
geg6
@catclub:
Yes, but if he’s cooperating, no one has to confine themselves to those matters. They can ask him about anything.
MattF
@Immanentize: NY newspapers had always treated the Trumps as a low-level crime family.
hueyplong
@Jerzy Russian: ccFrom now on, Schadenfreude will be a preexisting condition.
Uncle Cosmo
@Another Scott: InstaFracture Week is Eternal!
Also, IMPEACH PENCE FIRST!
catclub
@Immanentize:
which just happens to be something that Trump has ALREADY pardoned Joe Arpaio for.
geg6
@Adam L Silverman:
I would think Illinois would also like a whack at him. Isn’t that where the little bank with the CEO with delusions of military might was?
Immanentize
I want to see some heavy handed forfeiture seizures, like the feds would make in regular drug or organized crime cases.
Adam L Silverman
@Marcopolo: There will be enough NY state and NY City charges that even if Pence pardoned him it won’t matter. And Pence will be the lamest of lame ducks whether he would pardon him or not. And, remember, there was a reason that Paul Manafort wanted Mike Pence to be on the ticket as the vice presidential nominee. We don’t know what that reason is. But Special Counsel Mueller does…
Elizabelle
@Just Chuck: Are you the same “The Other Chuck” who told us in the morning thread to get used to saying Justice Kavanaugh.
Who needs you?
To me, you are Fuck You, Chuck.
Immanentize
@catclub: Yes, but Arpaio did not get completely off the hook for contempt of court. And no one has followed up post-pardon with Ol’ Joe. Yet. But they just might after next Tuesday when he loses his primary bid for Senate.
Adam L Silverman
@geg6:
Phrasing?
Marcopolo
@Elizabelle: I’m with you on this line of thinking, of course, but as of yet there is no indication–despite Pence appearing to play a central role w/ Flynn & other squirrely things–that any shit has splashed onto him yet. I guess we will have to see.
In the meantime I will reiterate a comment from a few days ago: Everyone call your Senators now and tell them the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings need to be put on hold now. A President facing so many potential legal challenges should not be able to appoint a member of the Supreme Court which may be the final arbiter on whether he is accountable to our legal system like every other American. Here’s the number:
(202) 224-3121
Platonailedit
@Immanentize:
They are practically the same, only their mo’s are different.
geg6
@catclub:
Can’t do that in a New York case. Only a federal case. And New York is ready to pick up the ball if the Shitgibbon pulls that crap.
Immanentize
@MattF: but now we learn he is a high level crime Cappo.
Just Chuck
@Adam L Silverman:
Seeing as how he’s now done with Manafort, who didn’t talk, you certain of that?
Just Chuck
@Immanentize: More like a Crappo
geg6
@Adam L Silverman:
LOL! Didn’t even dawn on me. I just always frame my guy that way so as to not confuse anyone that it’s Cole or something.
Immanentize
@Platonailedit: And the Trump criminals blow their own stash, it seems….
Just Chuck
@Elizabelle: It’s nice to have fans. Fuck you too sweetheart.
Adam L Silverman
@geg6: Also, Virginia and DC and possibly California – all places where he has homes/property. Florida should be on that list, but it won’t be as long as Pam Bondi is the state AG.
Timurid
If this was any other President, one who was not the Last Hope of the White Race, right now they’d be calling time of death and filling out the toe tag…
David Anderson
@Jerzy Russian: if ACA regulated, yes Schradenfreud OD is an EHB under inpatient acute care
MagdaInBlack
Im very glad to hear you say that about Mueller >
zhena gogolia
@Marcopolo:
Done, but I’m preaching to the choir.
geg6
@Just Chuck:
What makes you think that Meuller is done with Manafort? There’s still a pending trial in DC and a possible re-trial in Arlington.
SiubhanDuinne
@Another Scott:
Now I’m all conflustifered.
Don
@yam: as some of suggest, he may not know where the bodies are buried, but he held the light.
Adam L Silverman
@Just Chuck: You notice all the paper, including all the emails and phone call transcripts and other communications they had of Manafort’s for that trial? That’s all from SIGINT. That’s how they’ll know why Manafort wanted him.
And Mueller isn’t done with Manafort. His next trial starts in DC in a couple of weeks. And, in addition to considering whether to refile in VA on the ten mistrial counts from last week, there is much, much, much more that the Special Counsel could charge him with. Manafort may keep his mouth shut to keep from getting crosswise with Putin, but that won’t mean that he won’t be the Special Counsel’s personal chew toy for a long time to come.
Platonailedit
Now would be the good time for the European IC to drop their dirt (money laundering, racketeering, tax evasions) on the totus into mail Mueller’s mail box.
Marcopolo
@Just Chuck: I never said Trump would get impeached, I said resign. Depending on how all of the investigations go, and now there appear to be new ones developing at the NY state, NYC, and possibly other local & state levels it is quite possible the Trump Organization might go the way of Arthur Anderson after the Enron scandal which is to cease to exist. For Trump, that’s a lot worse than being impeached. As for Pence, we will have to see as it is hard to imagine someone so close to the center of Trumpgate wouldn’t be at least a little contaminated by it.
OzarkHillbilly
@Just Chuck: He’s not done with Manafort yet. Not by a long shot.
zhena gogolia
@geg6:
Po-moemu, etot paren’ sidit v Samare v podvale svoikh roditelei.
Amir Khalid
@Adam L Silverman:
I’m kind of hoping that if der Scheißgibbon has a sufficiency of meltdowns, he’ll make a boatload of self-incriminating statements, and Mueller’s people will gather enough information from them to convict him on his own words. It will almost certainly not happen quite that way, but it would be so delicious to see …
Just Chuck
@geg6: I stand corrected. I’m still not putting faith in this congress to do the right thing, and the next likely won’t have the Senate votes.
Trump and Pence are the visible symptoms of the rot, and need to be excised, but we’re due for worse unless and until we root out and expose what allows the Manaforts of the world to rise and thrive in the first place.
LAO
I picked the wrong day to stop sniffling glue!
Immanentize
@geg6: I think the information that there was one rather unreasonable(?) hold out juror in the first Manafort trial, that the chances that the prosecution will announce their intention to retry him goes up. This also puts the pardon issue off longer, by keeping the criminal justice process for Paul moving along with no final resolution for a few more months. This also has the added benefit of helping protect Mueller a bit longer. To fire Mueller in the middle of that prosecution would be the worst time for Trump to pull that trigger. Although Trump is the Alfred E. Neuman President
Marcopolo
On an ironic note, it’s a shame Trump couldn’t manage to stay married to only one woman over the course of his career. Having three wives kinda rules out the Duncan Hunter defense, no?
Also too, have we lost the ability to edit our posts temporarily or permanently or am I the only that is no longer getting the edit button after posting?
Adam L Silverman
@Amir Khalid: All he does is make self incriminating statements. Apparently he admitted to committing at least one additional crime in that Fox and Friends interview that aired yesterday.
Jeffro
@Timurid:
Yup.
However, after the requisite shellacking they have coming in November, I have no doubt that there will be plenty of others to take up the GOP’s white nationalist banner. Only they’ll be smarter than Trumpov & Co, unfortunately. (not that it’s a high bar to clear…)
TomatoQueen
OT: FTFNYT has the inevitable McCain stopping treatment announcement, unauthorized individuals saying death is near. New thread needed?
Platonailedit
Terry chay
@Marcopolo: Trump is not resigning. immunity would not be enough for his narcissism.
Any investigation during/after impeachment vote in the House that doesn’t net resignation of almost the entire Trump administration including Pence is not likely.
Having said that the GOP political strategy is entirely divorced from reality. This means that even if they get wiped out in the House and lose a majority in the Senate (the latter not even thinkable until recently), the Senate still won’t vote to convict until 2020 puts an emphatic finish on 2018.
Ca GOP has the same MO. They held out the hope that the recall election of the Governator was a turning point when it turned out to be last gasp before irrelevance.
Mary G
Best Infrastructure Week ever. Whoever has the weekend duty babysitting Twitler better start drinking now.
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman:
This is an important point that I think too many people are downgrading.
Paul Manafort recommended Pence for the VP slot. A private group is starting to investigate Pence’s role in the campaign. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mueller has info on him.
What worries me is that our system is not set up to lose the President, Vice President, and a big chunk of Congress. For the last, recall Maria Butina and her friends in the NRA. We haven’t heard all of that yet.
CliosFanBoy
@Bruce K: I feel sorry for him as a person and for his family and friends. but I am not a fan of his political career….
Marcopolo
@Just Chuck: Just call it by its name: white collar crime.
So Trump is going to Ohio tonight to speak a the annual Ohio GOP fundraiser dinner, right? Wonder how many no shows there will be–not that your average GOP politician is particularly self-aware. Wonder if Kaisich going to be there? Wonder will Trump explode at the podium while talking? I will probably be following Daniel Dale’s twitter account tonight.
MattF
@Jeffro: Like Gohmert or King? The Dumb, it is strong with them.
bemused
@Adam L Silverman:
I had forgotten about that but yeah, I’d like to know if there is more to Manafort’s sneaky machinations to ensure Trump picked Pence than sewing up evangelical votes.
Mary G
Oh, and FY WaPo who has a big article up on the front page of the website about two school bus drivers in West Virginia – one loves Trump, one hates him. and at the end they are ignoring the big rally on TV. I can kind of see why small town red staters hate the media, because they act like they are seeing exotic animals in a zoo rather than Americans. Why not feature some big-city Clinton voters screaming “She told you so!!”
Tim C.
I’m hoping we are closer to the endgame than it seems. The longer this goes on, Trump’s option to just pardon everyone and fire as much of the DOJ as he needs to is going to become more and more attractive. The two big questions and one laughably simple question are:
1) Will he be able to muster the internal fortitude to do it. He hasn’t yet. He got burned when he fired Comey so in whatever passes for his internal thought process he clearly has some reservations about doing so. What happens if he tries it is going to be the scary/interesting part.
2) (easy question) If he does so, will the Republicans in congress who have said they wont tolerate it actually do any…… you know what? We all know the answer to this question, they are (insert very clever 10 adjectives about what they are) They will do nothing.
3) Will it make a difference in the mid-terms in enough places to give the Senate and House to the Democrats.
My guess is that the “smarter” people in the White House are trying everything to get him to wait to pull the trigger until after the mid-terms. When I put on my “Evil” hat, that’s what I would do. If they hold the Senate (Very likely probably with +1 or +2 GOP senators thanks to the shittiest map ever) That give him an internal fig-leaf to do it. If they hold the house and senate (Again thanks to gerrymandering) he’ll claim a mandate to do so.
Amir Khalid
@Marcopolo:
It seems to me that whatever misconduct Trump’s campaign engaged in that taints the legitimacy of Trump’s election will also taint the legitimacy of Pence’s: they were on the same ticket. I throw this question to the floor: do you guys think it likely, or even at all possible, that Pence gets impeached along with Trump?
MattF
@Tim C.: I agree, but I’m uncomfortable relying on Trump’s cowardice.
Elizabelle
@Cheryl Rofer:
I am not sure this crew would be a loss. If they are traitors and criminals, eject them. It’s a failing they were allowed to burrow in. Further, our system is set up to inaugurate a traitor and criminal over the winner — by several million votes. That has got to stop. Politicians should represent humans, not acreage and livestock. The Electoral College needs to go.
But yes. We live in interesting times.
Mary G
@Bruce K: I wonder if Mitch McConnell is chortling and rubbing his hands together hoping McCain dies sooner rather than later, so the governor of Arizona can name a replacement before the funeral who will be another vote for Kavanaugh.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: The ones that will be left will be the Gym Gordan and Mark Meadows types. The lesson they learn will be the same, wrong lesson they always learn: we didn’t lose because we were too extreme, we lost because we weren’t extreme enough.
p.a.
Kheeerist even I’m inching towards optimism. IANAL, but aren’t Mueller’s moves ‘incentivizing’ (yech) other members of the crime family to try and swing deals before the hammer comes down? “Look, I know stuff too! Let’s talk deals, or at least minimums…”
germy
Has PEETUS commented on this Weisselberg development yet? I’m afraid to look.
Platonailedit
@Adam L Silverman:
Ha. The totus mess seems to have covered up that particular can of worms.
SiubhanDuinne
@Bruce K:
I feel confident in predicting that whenever Senator McCain passes, President Obama’s condolence message will be orders of magnitude more gracious than Trump’s.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: Yep, follow the money.
trollhattan
@geg6:
My money’s on a Manafort retrial on the hung charges now that we know it was a single reticent juror and eleven voting guilty.
I await the first meeting between a broke Manafort and his new public defender.
Platonailedit
Terry chay
@Adam L Silverman: well technically those docs on Manafort aren’t from SIGINT, they’re from the surprise warrant/raid on his home and other normal sources.
I believe you meant it is possible that Mueller knew where to look because of SIGINT and he just had to figure a way to get at that information through proper channels instead of just fishing.
One thing that’s likely is that both sides are acting like the Manafort indictments are the tip of the iceberg with respect to Manafort. The charges were deliberately chosen to avoid direct confrontation on the Trump-Russian collision issue, and Manafort defense team would not have split the charges if they weren’t trying to “run out/extend the clock” for something.
In retrospect both strategies look to be a mistake in 20-20 hindsight. Events are rapidly overtaking the Soevial Councils long, slow plod to RICO; and the as time goes on the likelihood of a presidential pardon for Manafort that has enough coverage to immunize him becomes unlikely.
Brian Perkins
@Adam L Silverman: Great work on this, but… consider using the word “guide” or “porter” instead of using “Sherpa” as a verb. As a non-Sherpa I have always had a problem with people using “sherpa” to mean “person who carries my stuff.” Thanks again for your reporting.
debit
That Just upChuck guy sure talks about pie a lot.
Shalimar
@Cheryl Rofer: Wasn’t there a non-zero chance during the Cold War that we would lose the president, vice-president and a big chunk of Congress in nuclear strikes? It seems like there actually should be contingencies for how to carry on, even if they weren’t aimed at this particular circumstance.
Elizabelle
@debit: Yup. He’s here to demoralize.
Fuck Chuck. Although him is an impotent person.
Martin
@Dave L:
It’s going to take a lot of careful effort to get him to resign. A defining characteristic of narcissism is the internal struggle to keep their internal vision of who they are (for Trump, the greatest dealmaker, businessman, etc.) reconciled with the external evidence that contradicts that internal vision. That’s why when a business deal goes south, it’s either redefined as something they never wanted to begin with, or it’s someone else’s failure or some kind of deliberate mistreatment of him (out to get me). Narcissists routinely get in this vicious cycle of lies and denials to hold their worldview together. That worked okay when you were some two-bit businessman who was mostly know for being a character rather than actual human being (narcissism is largely about not being able to face your true self, and making up for those known shortcoming by subconsciously creating a persona). But being President of the US doesn’t afford you the opportunities of some dipshit that has no real impact on people’s lives. Investigators will come after you and you can’t buy them off any more. Everything becomes public, and the world stops seeing the character and starts seeing the true person – everyone but the individual playing the character. At some point they just can’t lie to themselves enough to avoid facing their true self. When the person has been enabled and rewarded to do this for 70 years, and suddenly has to face up to who they actually are, it’s incredibly devastating. Imagine waking up one day and realizing you weren’t the person you had always thought you were. Suicide isn’t uncommon in these cases.
His kids will plea out at some point. Trump International will be taken apart. It’ll come crashing down. We’ll be lucky if he just resigns.
trollhattan
@SiubhanDuinne:
Trump will begin, “Today, we remember Senator McCain, who used to work for me.”
Immanentize
@Amir Khalid: It would not happen because Pence has been elected Vice President legitimately. You (and I) might think Pence is “illegitimate,” because tainted by Trump but that is not how the system works. The 12th amendment makes it clear that the electors (in the electoral college) vote independently for President and Vice President. Regardless what happens to Trump, Pence was duly elected as Vice President and absent trial and conviction for crimes and misdemeanors specific to his actions, he cannot be removed. And for all our concern about how Trump chose him, what is Pence’s impeachable offense? I actually think his well deserved reputation as one of the stupidest people in politics helps him in this situation.
Adam L Silverman
@Platonailedit: That investigation is barely at the beginning. It will not end well for Gym.
Greg Boggis
Qanoners take heart. Having every person who ever dealt with Donald Trump arrested, indicted, jailed or cooperating with the FBI is all part of the plan. The Storm is coming!
Gelfling 545
@gwangung: my FB feed today has a picture of a woman holding a sign featuring Tick, tock, etc. I wondered if she was a frequenter of this particular watering hole.
trollhattan
@debit:
It’s 7:30 p.m. in St. Petersburg FWIW. Swing shift at the troll factory.
Immanentize
@SiubhanDuinne: And the Obamas will likely go to McCain’s funeral, but Trump won’t
trollhattan
@Gelfling 545:
Did she perhaps have a green balloon?
rikyrah
Hope you enjoy becoming someone’s girlfriend, mofo!
Jacob Scott Goodwin sentenced to 8 years in prison for his violent attack on DeAndre Harris in Charlottesville.
nbc29.com/story/38946913/scheduled-sentencing-goodwin-ramos-08-23-2018
SiubhanDuinne
@trollhattan:
Precisely!
Adam L Silverman
@Terry chay: No, the phone call recordings and transcripts and email and text message transcripts are from SIGINT. You don’t get those from a search warrant on someone’s home. There was a FISA warrant on Manafort. Moreover, Mueller will have access to whatever the Brits, the Estonians, the Latvians, and the Germans had intercepted via the counterintelligence task force he inherited.
Martin
@Shalimar: Mechanically, yes, there are policies for how to do this but would the country even function after such an action? Hell, even when Reagan was shot we had Al Haig insisting he was in charge when he wasn’t. We had a rule, but even the folks who are trained to implement the rule fucked it up. What would happen economically in a situation like that? What would happen politically? It’s uncharted territory and while Americans like to believe we are durable in the face of adversity, we’ve not faced existential threats in a VERY long time.
Elizabelle
@trollhattan: They won’t have that ridiculous judge again. And jury selection will be even more important.
I think we should allow 11-1 guilty verdicts, in non-capital punishment cases. Clearly, the government has to mount an expensive retrial — and was at risk of getting no conviction — because of one juror who did not belong in that jury. I wish they could investigate that woman and her motives. At least they know who she is now (I would bet those connected with the trial do know).
I would love to see an in-depth article, after the fact, on Bad Juror and how often that stuff goes on.
The Moar You Know
@Elizabelle: Demoralize? He keeps talking about pie, fucker’s making me hungry. Got a local place in town that makes the best goddamn cherry pie in the world. Most people put too much sugar in it, not these folks. Just enough. I could eat it until my stomach explodes.
Adam L Silverman
@Brian Perkins: This is not my post. I have no control over the use of sherpa in the post or its title. And I say that as someone who has supervised three Nepalese generals.
germy
@Immanentize:
I would imagine he’ll be told to keep away. Like when Babs Bush died.
RedDirtGirl
@Adam L Silverman: Adam went there. I was trying not to!
Elizabelle
@The Moar You Know: I love cherry pie. My mom made the best.
What town? And what pie place? I can travel!!
Adam L Silverman
@Immanentize: The McCains have already notified the White House that the President is not welcome at the funeral.
trollhattan
@Elizabelle:
I can’t help but think “plant.” Evidently the eleven cajoled her for ages but she stuck with “reasonable doubt” like a Federalist Society judicial candidate repeating “settled law” before the Senate Judiciary Committee.
“Just remember the magic words and everything will be okay.”
Martin
@rikyrah:
Our race-warriors have spoken. These people are the biggest fucking cowards.
rikyrah
@Lee:
Good!
That was an excellent response.
Immanentize
@Elizabelle: If there is a retrial in the Virginia Manafort case, it will again be before Judge Ellis. Unless he asks to be taken off it, but he is not that kind of guy. And, the prosecution could move to kick him off, but there probably wasn’t enough evidence of actual bias to succeed in a recusal motion. I think the best the prosecution can hope for is an Ellis who was somewhat humiliated by his own behavior that for once was vetted in public.
trollhattan
@Adam L Silverman:
They should invite the GS Warriors. And Lebron.
SiubhanDuinne
@Immanentize:
And maybe Melania will go, and Obama will make her smile again, just like at Barbara Bush’s service.
Elizabelle
@Martin: I think the country is resilient enough to function very well after Trump and the McConnell grifting set are removed, forcibly if needed.
And we really do need to take out Fox News. Its mission is to make this country ungovernable. It’s not just media. It’s weaponized.
TS (the original)
@Marcopolo:
I read somewhere – sorry no link – that he is NOT going to the event.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: I’m not sure the people charged with implementing the rule fucked it up so much as Alexander Haig simply defaulted back to being a general.
Martin
@Elizabelle: Remember all of the discussions between the judge and lawyers and whatnot? I think some of that is going to get unsealed. I’d be willing to bet they knew they had a problem on their hands before deliberations began.
The Moar You Know
@trollhattan: I’m not laughing. That’s exactly what will happen.
I’d like to feel outraged and truly sorry for McCain, because this is an absolutely shit way to go out, but I can’t. He spent most of his life fucking over people less fortunate than him. So he’s earned that shit eulogy by Trump (actually, Trump won’t do it and will send the lowest-level person he can find to do it instead, like SHS). It will be disrespectful as hell and the GOP voters will cheer, because McCain had the gall to disrespect Der Hairpocalypse.
Elizabelle
@Immanentize: Why would it be before Judge Ellis? Is he the only judge who can hear the case?
Terry chay
@Jeffro: Actually, they’ll be worse and dumber.
One thing I find interesting is that the primaries are showing even the die hard Trumpers are losing faith in him recently. This doesn’t mean they don’t support him, it means they’re not as enthusiastic with him personally. Some more “mainstream” GOP candidates getting through (and McSally polling better in AZ) is not due to a change of heart in the GOP but rather due to a temporary lull in enthusiasm among the Trump crowd. A similar, but far more permanent lull in enthusiasm among the “mainstream” GOP explains Trumps “high” approval within his own party and the election of Trump style candidates.
Trumpers will have no trouble throwing Trump under the bus, they are just waiting for someone worse than Trump to come along so they can hop on another.
Impending electoral irrelevance is not a threat, it’s a reward. These people WANT to be yelling at you impotently from the side of their lawn. The question will later be, why are you listening? I have to dodge at least three clearly insane homeless people on my way to work. Even if they make eye contact, I don’t engage.
BruceFromOhio
Open thread, so hooray for voting rights and sane election boards in Georgia.
Adam L Silverman
@RedDirtGirl: Times are tough, people got to do what they’ve got to do to make ends meet…//
RedDirtGirl
@bemused: What was the sneaky part about it? I’ve heard reference to Manafart (!) tricking Trump into picking Pence.
debit
@BruceFromOhio: That is flat out awesome news.
The Moar You Know
@Adam L Silverman: Good.
debit
@RedDirtGirl: Manafort used a cheeseburger, a piece of string and a very large box that said Acme.
rikyrah
@trollhattan: \
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
MomSense
@Adam L Silverman:
Mueller if you’re listening I hope you are able to find the ________thousand missing yahoo emails. I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our citizens.
Immanentize
@Elizabelle: It is his case; he was assigned the case and it stays with him until fished. He is not the only one who can hear the case, but at this point he is the only one who may hear the case unless he asks to be removed or he is forced by law to recuse. This generally makes sense. A judge who was assigned a case after a hung jury knows the history of the case, prior decisions made, etc. so keeping a case with one judge is by far the most judicially expedient path.
Doug R
A lawyer, a Pecker and an Accountant walk into Mueller’s office….
BruceFromOhio
@Terry chay:
Cultists never quit, and enthusiasm doesn’t vote. The voters that foisted this mess on the rest of us have demonstrated ad nausuem that they will consistently vote against their own interests because reasons. Polls and approval ratings are fine, it’s the election day turnout that tells the tale, and the cultists will be there voting (R) no matter what.
Chyron HR
@rikyrah:
I guess I gotta be that person: Prison rape is not cool.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: He was secretary of state. It was his job to implement the rule. I’m not ascribing malice to Haigs actions, and agree he was just turning on general mode, but the point remains: ‘Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.’ The words of noted philosopher Mike Tyson ring true.
Consider the following scenario: Democrats win the House in November, and Pelosi is set to become Speaker in January. What’s the impeachment calculus in that time period? Impeach Trump and Pence after Jan and you have President Pelosi. Impeach them before and you have President Ryan who gets to appoint a VP. The law is clear. That’s not the issue. If we think McConnell blowing up the Senate with his USSC bullshit was bad, we don’t even want to know what would happen under this scenario, and how much collateral damage would be done to other institutions along the way.
BruceFromOhio
@debit: Holy smokes that is high-larious.
O. Felix Culpa
@Just Chuck:
How do you know this?
Elizabelle
LOL. Robin Leach has died. Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous. Isn’t he one of those who brought us Donald Trump? Aged 76. I thought he’d be older. From the Los Angeles Times:
There is somebody noticeably missing from that list. The Donald has done at least two interviews with Mr. Leach. From the NY Daily News: Remembering Donald Trump’s cringe-worthy 1994 interview with Robin Leach
The Donald has always been all about the boobs.
Terry chay
@Martin: This.
J R in WV
@Uncle Cosmo:
While no one here can disagree strongly with this sentiment, it isn’t really necessary. No one has ever indicated that a Vice-President cannot be indicted and prosecuted.
And once that happens, as in Spiro Agnew’s case, they are pressured to resign for the good name of the administration and high office. Also, lessens the ultimate punishment phase of their legal proceedings.
So let’s all wish really hard for a soon to arrive gift of multiple indictments of Mr Pence, and his “Mother”.
Does she actually have any actual children, or is it just Mike? Just askin’ — don’t really care!
Haroldo
@Elizabelle: And as Adam’s pointed out, Murdoch’s done this to the UK and now, not as successfully, to Australia. Something similar is taking place in Canada, though I don’t have a good fix on its media structure.
Kay
If we survive this as a country the first order of business should be to put in some strong rules on transparency/reporting for Presidential candidates.
It is ridiculous that Trump got all the way to election day without people knowing anything solid about this criminal enterprise he runs. It’s embarrassing. They should have access to this stuff. At a minimum, they should have known everything he owns and everything he owes. I know you’re going to tell me it “wouldn’t have mattered” but transparency and disclosure doesn’t require a specific outcome to have value. “Wouldn’t have mattered” is bullshit. “Wouldn’t have mattered” means no information “matters”. Is that really what we think?
Voters should have been shown this shit. If rules are necessary to make that happen then write some. This is intolerable. Cannot happen again. If they want to be president they have to turn it over. All of it.
MCA1
@Adam L Silverman: Lame duck is right. Regardless how much dirt comes out on how he was Putin’s handpicked VP choice through Manafort and the effect that would have on him. Even if that amounted to nothing, the fact is he’s dumb as a rock, and failed miserably as a Republican governor in Indiana, the Mississippi of the Midwest. His political career was dead before TreasonCo plucked him out of the gutter.
About 1 in 100 Americans know the first thing about Pence other than his job title, and were he to assume the presidency the other 99 would be, I’m quite sure, less than impressed. He would land with a giant thud. He’s living in a nice protective bubble of the anonymity that comes with being VP behind the most obnoxious blowhard camera hog on the planet, but that bubble wouldn’t survive first contact with the spotlight.
That’s all not to even mention the general fallout and enthusiasm squashing, both within the GOP and towards the GOP from the public, in the event of a Drumpf resignation or impeachment.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: If the Dems only win the House, hell even if they eke out a narrow majority in the Senate, there will be no impeachment. At least not right away. Because there’s not enough votes to convict and therefore remove the President in the Senate. What there will be, even if the Dems only take the House, will be a lot of proper oversight and a ton of investigations. Into what the President is doing, what his senior aides and advisors are doing. What his cabinet secretaries are doing. Things like that.
Elizabelle
@Martin: I want President Pelosi.
You will have noticed that Republicans — and their servants, NBC and the Fuck the Fucking New York Times — have been all over how unpopular Nancy Pelosi is. Lot of stories. Fuck them all very much.
I want a well-qualified and courageous woman who is effective. Do not want to hand off the Speakership off in these unprecedented times to someone who needs to learn on the job.
Nancy Pelosi has been smeared by the same jackasses who have been smearing the Clintons and other Democrats, for ages. Shame on the “Democrats” who fall for this. (Scratch them, and you will find a Wilmer Bro.)
JPL
@Immanentize: President Obama was asked to speak at the service.
Elizabelle
@O. Felix Culpa: re Chuck: he or she is a troll.
Platonailedit
@Kay:
Amen. One of the rules should be that who have declared bankruptcy should not be eligible. If you can’t manage your own finances, why should the world’s largest economy be handed over to you?
oatler.
Why, oh why, did Colbert have to take THIS week off??
Immanentize
@Elizabelle:
I am with you about how much I love and admire Pelosi;
But sadly, scratch those democrats that oppose NancySmash and you don’t find Wilmer Bros.; you find misogynistic, ageist white men hungry for power.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Cheryl Rofer:
The state governments?
Quinerly
@Adam L Silverman: which in my opinion will probably be better than a 2 year Pence presidency. I’m pretty terrified of him.
Yarrow
Tick tock, motherfuckers! This very bad or Trump. It ropes in his kids, the traitor tots, as well. Tick fucking tock! Traitors gonna pay!
BruceFromOhio
@Betty Cracker:
Goes back to that whole white-no-college-fascist-loving-knuckle-dragger profile. Gaia help us this be our undoing with a shove or two from the Russians. All that bloated military spending, and it’s Chet Beefpen1s from Boise that brings us down.
J R in WV
@Just Chuck:
You ARE stupid as well as ignorant. Manafort isn’t nearly done with Muller, nor Mueller with Manafort. There’s a whole second federal trial scheduled for next month in DC with a newer better judge, the judge that put poor Paulie in jail for witness tampering while awaiting trial. Plus who knows how many other indictments being held for release after that trial.
You need to learn more about these issues if you want to troll here, we pride ourselves on our knowledge about these criminals. You’re just looking ignorant and stupid when you troll people who already know way more than you do about the simplest things.
Can you read? Do you bother? Or do you just go with the executive summary when you come in for your shift at troll central, St Petersburg? Or Faux News? Now that rings a bell with me, regarding your educational attainment. Fauz News student~!!~
Platonailedit
Immanentize
@Yarrow: Can we buy Trump and each of his team a big clock like in Peter Pan, and an alligator named “Mueller?”
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Adam L Silverman:
Don’t forget controlling funding. That’s a big one
Terry chay
@Adam L Silverman: sorry. My bad.
bemused
@RedDirtGirl:
I used sneaky as in tricky. Quite similar to me.
Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot
@Marcopolo:
I’ll give it a whirl, but it’s really no different than the take I’ve had on this from the start: There will be more indictments, trials, convictions (though seldom on all charges, cf. Manafort) and plea deals by any number of people in Trump’s orbit (possibly including Jared — oh, please!) which will drag on well into next year. This will be a major damper on the orange asshole’s misbegotten presidency, but it’s been that way already (a good thing, of course).
Trump himself, however, will not be indicted, no matter what evidence of malfeasance by the evil motherfucker is found. I’m in the camp that says a sitting President can not be indicted — which also happens to be the DoJ’s understanding/guideline, and that’s where any indictment of a President would come on federal charges. I — and many others — believe our system only allows Congress to put a sitting President on trial for anything, via impeachment.
It’s certainly an open, unresolved theoretical question, I’ll grant that. But if anyone thinks otherwise, try to game out how it might actually happen that some DoJ prosecutor — in contravention to the DoJ’s policy on this — would draw up criminal charges against Trump, then dispatch federal marshals (who agree to obey such an order) to serve him the warrant for his arrest, which Trump (and, not insignificantly, also his Secret Service bodyguards) allow to occur.
It would never happen. No current federal attorney would do this, and if one tried, no federal marshal (or rather, group of marshals) would obey; and if any did, neither Trump nor his Secret Service detail would agree to his arrest. Trump’s lawyers (yeah, I know) would give Trump the same advice Nixon’s lawyers gave that dead devil regarding this very question during Watergate — the President can not be charged with a crime outside impeachment. If it even got to the point of attempting to bring a federal indictment against him (it wouldn’t) Trump would simply refuse to go along, and scores of millions of his fellow fascist-Americans would wholeheartedly support him, as would almost every Republican in Congress (as we’ve seen for the past 1-1/2 years+ that’s the lesson they learned from Watergate).
Trump will not be indicted, will not be convicted if impeached (although I think there’s a very good chance the coming Democratic House draws up articles; no way 67 senators convict), and he will not resign. If Trump decides in 2020 that he will run for re-election (I give that a 50/50) then he will handily win the Republican primary, then lose in the general. Once he’s out of office, then he will be brought up on charges, at both the federal and state (almost certainly NY) level. If he doesn’t croak first, he spends the rest of his life in jail. But the generation-spanning damage is done, thanks “her emailz!” media and Bernie/Stein leftist purity assholes and the multiple millions who just couldn’t give a shit to vote in 2016.
Immanentize
@Platonailedit: This is a good thing. We need to go to the mattresses on this.
Shell
Just think about that sentence for a minute. Were not talking about a foreign national in another country. Has there ever been a time in this country when that would have been said?
O. Felix Culpa
@Kay:
Agreed. And his hometown paper, FTFNYT, knew plenty about the Trump crime syndicate and chose not to publish for reasons as yet unknown.
Ian G.
For me, the grand prize we could get from Weisselberg is confirmation that the Trump Org was laundering money for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard through that Azerbaijan project. I want to know what every Iran War loon, every Muslim-hater, everyone who who has Netanyahu’s tiny pecker firmly lodged in their throat who jumped on the Trump train will do to explain why financing the terrorist arm of the Iranian government is no big deal.
O. Felix Culpa
@Elizabelle: Yes, I realized that upon reading further down the thread. Thanks!
Calouste
@The Moar You Know: McCain will be fucking over people until the day he dies, and even some days after. By depriving the people of Arizona of their full representation in the Senate.
Tim C.
@MCA1: The other main drawback for the GOP with Trump is a non-trivial number of die hard Trumpers are #onlyTrumpers no matter the situation, they will view the GOP as traitors against Trump unless Trump gets his two full terms. The GOP can’t afford to lose this group. It might only be 10% of the party, but that would be enough to turn a blue wave into a blue extinction event.
NotMax
OT.
Just what we need. Notice just flashed out about a brush fire which has resulted in closure of the primary (for most intents and purposes, the only) road connecting west Maui and the rest of the island.
Platonailedit
@Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot: Lotsa hypotheticals there, bud.
BruceFromOhio
@O. Felix Culpa: How do you know this?
Emphasis mine. I really wish Dems would just not even say the word, much less pursue it.
NobodySpecial
My only worry is that everyone under him gets immunity, then nothing is done with Trump by the Lickspittle Congress and Mueller doesn’t charge because supposedly you can’t indict the President. Everyone walks away not unlike Iran-Contra and ABSCAM, only to do it all over again next generation. That’s my fear. It’s happened three times too many in my lifetime to trust in the system.
JPL
Melania and Trump leave the White House at two to fly to Ohio. Before the republican dinner, they will visit a children’s hospital. I’m not sure that’s a good idea, because who knows what he will say the children.
Yarrow
@Immanentize: LOL. I’m not buying Trump a thing. Our tax money will pay for all their orange jumpsuits and three hots and a cot. That’s more than enough. Of course the death penalty is still the punishment for treason, so there’s that.
randy khan
Well, this can’t have improved Trump’s Friday.
Obviously, an immunity deal doesn’t tell you that much, except that prosecutors never give immunity unless they think you can give them someone more important than you. It does mean, though, that the team will get a guided tour through any documents, which will be very helpful to them.
JPL
@NotMax: Wow! How are you doing?
MCA1
@Elizabelle: Ha! I just read your post and thought “That’s weird. When did I pie Elizabelle?”
Chyron HR
@JPL:
“LEMME TELL YOU ABOUT MY GOOD FRIEND JEFFREY EPSTEIN! HE KNOWS HOW TO KEEP HIS MOUTH SHUT!”
Immanentize
@Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot:
First, the idea that it is settled DOJ policy to not indict a President is false. There is no such policy. There have been various opinions written about the issue — which go both ways because: the Clenis — but there is no DOJ policy like that. None. This is a powerful meme cooked up by Presidential supporters, period. Now, I expect that THIS DOJ will not seek an indictment of the current President, but that is a question of prosecutorial discretion, not of settled policy.
Second. Indictment does not necessarily mean a trial. And indictment is a charge and really places no burdens on the Presidency. I believe that criminally trying a President while in office may be unconstitutional (and “may” is all I will grant because of the Paula Jones Supreme Court case) there is certainly no bar to charging a President and then allowing that President to waive their right to a speedy trial and have the actual proceedings occur once the President is out of office. Further, people are indicted all the time in sealed indictments that are only opened much later at appropriate times, like when the person is in custody or can finally be brought before a court. There is no reason why a president could not be indicted under seal.
So, the premise that he cannot be charged is just a (current) right wing talking point that suggests the President is above the law. He/She/They are not and we should not accept that they are.
randy khan
@BruceFromOhio:
As a commenter on LGM said, the likelihood of getting 15 is exactly zero. If it happens, the final vote will be along the lines of 95-5. This is the lesson of Watergate: The Republicans in Congress will be with Trump until they are against him, and if it happens it will be sudden and overwhelming. That’s not saying it will happen, just what it will look like if it does.
Immanentize
@Chyron HR:
Now that would be some fun! As it would include some Dershowitz dish.
trollhattan
@JPL:
I’m sure it will go just fine.
“You’re going to be hot. You’re never going to be hot–learn to drive a truck. Based on your mom, you’re going to be really hot [stage whisper to aide: ‘Get mom’s number.’] You might be hot, who can say? Boys? I don’t see any boys here.”
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@BruceFromOhio:
What if you got kompromat on them?
That’s ok. If Trump died in the ensuing standoff/fire fight I’d be alright with that outcome. The penalty for Treason is death after all.
/Just so you know I don’t really want to see this happen
BruceFromOhio
@JPL: The whole thing makes me want to retch. The line up of fellators is like a who’s-who of two-bit ratfuck soullless criminals. Ohio has some really nice places, but it’s politics and politicians are simply horrid. And to think this was once a reliably Democratic stronghold.
Calouste
@BruceFromOhio: The solution to that is the same as the solution Mueller is already applying: flip the henchmen.
Specifically, start with indicting a few GOP Senators until the others realize that the best way to stop further investigations is to remove the final target from office.
Amir Khalid
@Immanentize:
Thanks for that clarification.
ericblair
@Adam L Silverman:
Before impeachment I agree, but the hearings themselves are going to make it much harder to justify not convicting, plus any reasonable hearings involving the NRA are going to show significant complicity with Senate Republicans which can make self preservation a fascinating new hobby for them. Plus the yam is going to take shit-losing to an entirely new level.
I also don’t discount the possibility that some of the Senate goopers may either decide to suddenly hang up their jocks, or start having some uncomfortable chats with those FBI agents they’ve been slandering regarding their activities. Things have been getting exponentially worse for the traitor party, and we may be hitting the knee of the curve here.
JPL
Is it selfish of me to want to end this week with the arrest of Roger Stone? I think he’s the next one to fall.
Terry chay
@BruceFromOhio: the mistake you are making is that it is not the Cult of Trump but rather what he represents. If Trump is tainted and something newer, worse comes along they will abandon him and glom onto that. Their enthusiasm in Trump, personally, is wavering and the voting results are starting to show it, you just have to know where to look (hint: not in his approval numbers).
Also enthusiasm does win elections ever since 50+1 became a viable election strategy (2004, the only presidential popular vote win in 25 years for the GOP). The central strategy has been to not to convince an overall majority of voters, but rather convince a bare electoral majority to vote.
JPL
@Chyron HR: It’s plausible.
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman:
That cuts! And I agree, we need to keep highlighting this.
scav
@JPL: Maybe they can anesthetize the kids first — isn’t pain-management a justifieable medical rationale?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I haven’t heard anything in a while about McCain’s replacement. A while back the CW was that Cindy would be appointed, I think until a special election is held? One of the most annoying customs of American politics, so a Senator with all her husband’s partisanship and militarism joined to born-again crackpottery.
trollhattan
@JPL:
Infrastructure Week uber alles.
Immanentize
@Ian G.: More likely to be Israelis, frankly.
MomSense
@Immanentize:
Ellis didn’t seem to grasp the import of this case. I think he even said he was surprised by all the attention it was getting. If he does preside over it again, I hope he will make some adjustments.
Gelfling 545
@Martin:
“the greatest dealmaker, businessman”, etc. i see potential in convincing him that resignstion IS a great deal compared to holding family reunions behind bars for a few decades and that only someone such as himself could have negotiated it, leaving aside of course that only one such as himself would need to.
oldgold
SDNY gets time and timing. Keep it coming!
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: I know I’m tempting fate here, but…can they double down any further? Is that even possible before they devolve into complete fringe-party territory and cede the middle 70% to the Dems?
I have a funny feeling we’re about to find out.
BruceFromOhio
@randy khan: yeah, I get that. Just gaming it out for the sake of exploration, what would it take? Trump biting the heads off screaming babies handed to him by a smiling Pence, a laughing McConnell? After all the fucking shit these people have done, openly, in broad daylight, and been called on it, the spineless call for hearings on Hillary’s emails. Seriously, I wonder what it would take to make them turn against him. I fear for my country that such a scenario simply does not exist.
Immanentize
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Quickly, if McCain had retired (or announced his retirement) before May 30, there would have been a special election this November to fill the remainder of his term. However, as we are past May 30, the Governor (Republican fuckwad) will appoint a replacement to complete McCain’s term which ends in 2020.
Leto
@Bruce K: Regarding McCain: saw on reddit that people on The_Donald subreddit are being the incredibly nasty vile humans we’ve known them to be. Other people went over to view the comments and basically stated they needed eye/brain bleach after that.
Regardless, I think we can all agree: fuck cancer.
Uncle Cosmo
@Elizabelle: The Chuckfuckhead is in dire need of being banhammered back to the seventh polyp of Itsanus – the one that’s turdally locked in synch with its optic nerve.
Cheryl Rofer
@Shalimar: The three branches of government had cozy hiding places under mountains to repair to in case of a nuclear strike on Washington. But yes, there was a nonzero chance of losing a lot of them.
There is so much about the Cold War that just doesn’t fit today’s situation that I would hesitate to try to apply whatever contingency plans there were. I think (and could be wrong about this, would need to research) that they were just to work through the chain of succession as necessary. We still put one member of the Cabinet in an undisclosed location during State of the Union messages and other gatherings of the full government so that s/he can carry on if the Capitol is blown up.
Brian Perkins
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks for straightening me out. Carry on!
BellyCat
@Just Chuck: Unregulated Capitalism, Comrade.
(and tax-free religious entities…)
Mary G
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I don’t think they’ll go for Cindy with Kavanaugh on the line. She is either pro-choice officially or in the wink-wink mode.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Jeffro:
That would be a dream come true for the Democratic Party to become the de facto poltical party similar in situation to the ANC.
Gelfling 545
@Martin: So much would depend on good faith and good will, which have been in very short supply lately. Instead, we have a bunch whose motto is “What’s in it for me?”.
Cheryl Rofer
@Kay: More basically, we need to get serious about white collar crime in the country and organized crime’s inroads into too many businesses. Particularly now that Russia is becoming a big player in organized crime.
Manafort’s lawbreaking and disloyalty to the country long precedes his attaching himself to Trump. Shoulda been in jail a long time ago,
Manyakitty
@Cheryl Rofer: From what I can tell, it’s all the way down the line of succession to Mattis, and he may not be so squeaky clean (Theranos).
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mary G: I might be confusing her with her awful daughter, but I’m pretty sure she’s a hardcore bible thumper
BruceFromOhio
@Terry chay:
If you sub ‘citizen’ for voters, I understand this. That ‘voter’ is defined as if that person actually votes makes these two strategies equivalent. “We win if convince more people to vote for us” is, uh, how elections work, excepting the lobotomy of the electoral college, and perhaps that is the intent of your statement. In which case, yes, agreed.
And if it’s my “mistake,” then it was the same “mistake” I was sorry to witness with Reagan and Bush II. Cultists gonna cult.
Manyakitty
@Marcopolo: Last I heard, Kasich will skip this event.
Gelfling 545
@Martin: Note Goodwin’s phrasing. Nothng to do with him, of course. Just something “happened”. Ramos at least acknowledges that he, personally, did something.
NotMax
@JPL
Not to derail the thread, we’re still in a holding pattern. Storm has slowed some more to moving at maybe 5 mph, so tracking maps which formerly had closest approach to Maui ~8 p.m. Friday now put that at ~2 a.m. Saturday. Slower movement also means longer sustained rains.
eric
I will say just this about McCain. There are many! negative things i can say about him, but he made one hell of a vote for decency in rejecting the outright repeal of ACA. I will treat that as a giant indulgence and say ‘thank you’ and I hope he goes peacefully and without any further suffering.
BruceFromOhio
@Calouste: @ericblair: Oh, I would *love* to be wrong and for you both to be right. Love, love, love, undying and unconditional until forever.
J R in WV
@Amir Khalid:
I’m holding out for an indictment in Pence’s case, there’s no reason not to as he holds very little power in our government, except for being a spare president in case we need one. And it’s happened before when Spiro Agnew was indicted in Maryland for criminal bribery while Governator there, before Nixon picked him as VP candidate.
Otherwise, sure, impeach them both, setting up the new Speaker of the House as “spare” president.
Terry chay
@Jeffro: Yes. C.f. CA GOP.
Immanentize
@MomSense:
OT I know, but did you decide how to handle the weedy plot?
JPL
@Mary G: She’s probably pro-choice like that hypocrite from Maine.
Terry chay
@BruceFromOhio: All it would take us someone worse to come along (and be visible). Right now, that’s impossible because Trump sucks all the air out of the room.
Elizabelle
@Immanentize: Yeah. I don’t appreciate McCain one bit for that. Although, was it with the understanding that Cindy McCain would serve out his term??
They should have put it to a vote this fall. Oh well.
BruceFromOhio
@Manyakitty: Kasich is a frequent critic Trump, and isn’t shy about it.
JPL
@NotMax: Thanks. Keep us posted.
MomSense
@Immanentize:
Black plastic. Vinegar didn’t work at all.
The Moar You Know
Hope you enjoy becoming someone’s girlfriend, mofo!
@rikyrah: Dammit, you know better than this.
Mary G
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: During the 2008 election:
The Tennesseean 2015:
I know there are more, but am too lazy to wade through Google to find them. All the first five pages are about 2008 or Meghan’s fights on The View.
Elizabelle
@NotMax: Best to you and our Hawaii jackals, known and lurkers.
I guess all the rain will take out the fire you mentioned? Is the fire in the storm’s path??
Cheryl Rofer
@Manyakitty: I think his presence on the Theranos board was dumb, but I think it’s just the old story of old man charmed by beautiful young woman.
Immanentize
@MomSense:
I am a big fan of solarizing soil. I hope it works well.
Gravenstone
@Just Chuck: what will be needed is clear and indisputable evidence of Pence’s involvement in the Russian interference. Even then, you know that many Republicans will try to minimize it and ‘look forward for the good of the country ‘.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mary G: I’ll be damned. McCain hates McConnell and trump (among many, many others, I think he and Grassley once had a loud ‘fuck me? fuck you!’ fight in a committee meeting), maybe Cindy’s tenure will be the old man’s revenge.
Not gonna bet any paper money on that, but I’ve got a quarter that ain’t doing nothing.
J R in WV
@Yarrow:
Oh, sweety, you are so witty in this crisis. Traitor Tots indeed!!!!
The Moar You Know
@JPL: “Don’t you worry, honey, if you survive this in a few years you’re gonna have a real nice rack.”
The animal should not be allowed near actual human beings.
Adam L Silverman
@Terry chay: No worries. There’s so many moving pieces here that it is hard to keep them all straight. And while getting his computers and access to his email and other social media accounts via that warrant means Mueller doesn’t have to burn sources and methods, the SIGINT is important here. Even if we never see any of it.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Adam L Silverman:
The California Dems brought down Quakenbush, the last GOP state official, that way. Quackenbush was just as corrupt and dumb as Trump; State insurance commissioner and was screwing both the public and the insurance companies. The Dems in the Assembly when threw Quackenbush’s crimes very methodically, laid out the evidence, allowed Quackenbush’s lawyer to respond and built up a case that put it beyond any doubt so Quackenbushed has to resign. About the same time as the Clinton Impeachment and the contrast with the Kangaroo Court the GoP did on Clinton was pretty stark.
Manyakitty
@BruceFromOhio: Gotta give him credit for that and the Medicaid expansion.
NotMax
@Elizabelle
Presume the rains will be helpful as regards the fire. The road closure currently is one more headache as that same artery will (100% probability) be heavily impacted by storm surge and closure is expected due to that a bit later on. There is another, longer and more circuitous road to west Maui. Using the word cowpath for parts of it would be a generous description, though.
Adam L Silverman
@Immanentize: I’ve been planning a post on this. Will try to get it up later today if possible. But I’m in agreement about a potential indictment, unsealed or sealed, that sits until the President is out of office so that the trial doesn’t interfere with his duties.
I would not be surprised if we find out that the entire list of sealed indictments that were reported on being filed in the Eastern District of Virginia several months back are all Mueller’s. And they’re there as a dead man’s switch in case Congress, the President, or both interfere in the Special Counsel’s investigation.
Manyakitty
@Cheryl Rofer: I can accept that.
OT: Just got a news alert that trump told Pompeo to cancel his visit to NK next week because of the slow progress on denuclearization. Fun!
Calouste
@BruceFromOhio: We already have two GOP Representatives indicted this month so far. I highly doubt it will stop at that count.
J R in WV
@Cheryl Rofer:
Last I heard there are over 100 athletes involved with OSU and former coach Gym Jordan by now. So won’t be going away for Gym Jordan anytime soon.
Gravenstone
@Marcopolo: If Kasich shows up in the same room a Trump, things will get interesting. Kasich has been doing his level best to get under Trump’s skin for some time now.
Litlebritdifrnt
This is probably at the end of a dead thread but my husband’s petition for leave to remain in the UK was denied on Monday. They claim that he should have applied before he arrived in the UK. (Which was impossible due to the documentation that they require with the petition). We were devastated, but we have an appeal route available which of course we are taking. Just wanted to let you guys know.
Adam L Silverman
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Yep. I guarantee that Schiff and Nadler and Waters and Cummings have a very good idea where their colleagues funding is coming from.
Personally, I’m waiting for a credible accusation about one or more of the Republican senators to drop. Someone has to have oppo, even if it is one that isn’t up for election this cycle, that would be very helpful in making the “flip the Senate to end the corruption” argument.
pluky
@Ian G.: and Princess Ivanka as the go between just adds to my schadenfreude.
Uncle Cosmo
@J R in WV: Remember that it was the threat of prison (USA George Beall, a scion of the First Family of MD Repulicanism, had him dead to rights with Lester Matz’s testimony, & he knew it) that prompted Spiro’s cutting the deal that allowed him to avoid jail time by pleading nolo contendere in exchange from resigning the office of the Vice Presidency. Which arguably removed the main obstacle to the impeachment of Tricky Dick – no Democrat in his/her right mind would have allowed Agnew to become POTUS.
Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot
@Immanentize:
I’m sorry, but you are simply wrong about this. Do your own research, it’s not hard to find. It’s not just a Guiliani fever-dream, it’s what the DoJ determined and documented via memorandum in ’73 (long before President Clinton), which memorandum was referenced in an official DoJ legal opinion written in 2000 by Randolph Moss, Assistant Attorney General, Office of Legal Counsel. That Clinton DoJ legal counsel opinion concluded:
“In 1973, the Department of Justice concluded that the indictment and criminal prosecution of a sitting President would unduly interfere with the ability of the executive branch to perform its constitutionally assigned duties, and would thus violate the constitutional separation of powers. No court has addressed this question directly, but the judicial precedents that bear on the continuing validity of our constitutional analysis are consistent with both the analytic approach taken and the conclusions reached. Our view remains that a sitting President is constitutionally immune from indictment and criminal prosecution.”
It’s exactly what I said. It’s an unresolved question, and it’s not an unambiguous law, but it most certainly is the official understanding (i.e., policy/guideline) of the DoJ that a sitting President is immune to indictment and criminal prosecution outside impeachment. You may wish that were different, or that this was some rightwing meme cooked up by Trump’s supporters (it most certainly isn’t) but there it is. That’s the legal opinion the DoJ is operating from.
Could the DoJ determine that it’s ’73 and ’00 opinions about this were wrong? Of course it could. Not this DoJ, though, no fucking way. And I’m betting no future one will, either, whether under a Democratic or Republican administration.
ericblair
@Litlebritdifrnt:
I’m sorry. The Home Office has had so much insanely bad press recently that I would hope they would fix this just out of political expedience. They seem to be insane in how badly they treat applicants; it’s truly mindboggling.
Uncle Cosmo
@Litlebritdifrnt: Good luck with that bunch of bastards. Long before the current neofascist political hijinks, the independent-travel community unanimously considered the UK and USA immigration & customs operations the biggest collection of motherfuckers on the planet. I had a friend (US citizen from birth) who married a UK citizen (also from birth) in the States; they settled here for several years & had a child before returning to his home town of Belfast. When the fucking UK came after her & was about to deport her they had little choice but to jump over the border to the Republic, which accepts anyone born anywhere on the island (& their lawful spouses & offspring) as citizens of Ireland.
Terry chay
@BruceFromOhio: this is a tangent but in case you are interested.
And yes, athe distinction includes strategies like electoral college wins as you mentioned, but it also includes gerrymandering through State House control, as well as the crazy shit that has been going on in North Carolina.
By “voters” in the first, I meant registered voters in the sense of political science’s Mean Voter Theorem, which is the game theory conclusion that in a two candidate race on a single issue (or a single spectrum of issues) both candidates will move toward the mean voter in that spectrum.
Reagan did not break that, but Bush II did in 2004, but so did Clinton by 1996.
Clinton’s 1992 win may be a case where Mean Voter couldn’t be applied because it wasn’t a two candidate race, however in general, Clinton and most of the Democratic leadership had settled on an exploit called “triangulation” which was to move just right of the mean in “less important” issues (crime and criminal justice) in order to capture the majority without moving to the mean on others. The idea is seeing that the electorate is not a single spectrum in the middle. I like to think this strategy died when Gray Davis was recalled (although a Democratic governor, he never gave a single pardon but was so unpopular he got recalled and California got Arnie). People like Hillary Clinton paid a heavy price in later years for adopting this strategy back then: in 2008 for her vote for the Iraq war and in 2016 with the things she and her husband had said and done in crime.
50+1 since Karl Rove is what I’m talking about. Instead of futzing with the mean “swing” voter, this strategy says basically that if I can cobble together a coalition ON THE EXTREMES to get 50% plus 1 more vote (not voter), that’s all that matters. For instance, instead of moving to the middle on Abortion, I move to the extreme right, because while that may be a bare minority position I can capture nearly 100% of those votes without losing hardly a vote in the soft middle who disagrees but that disagreement will not be an issue that they change their vote on. Similar action on gun control, gay marriage (until recently), etc.
In that world your coalition is stronger when less people vote, so you put up barriers to voting and you use computer models to both break the power of majority as well as allow you to better to cobble together more 50+1 wins.
…
It may be this strategy is the political equivalent to arbitrage. The more it is exploited the more it self corrects. In the scenario we are now in this is seen in a number of ways:
– the original 50+1 coalitions are starting to merge such that their votes are not disparate but are the same. Today gun nuts, white supremicists, gay-Tran’s bigots, the religious right, and anti-abortionists are very overlapped, this was not so (for instance, growing up, the “pro life”era were Roman Catholics who were despised by evangelicals whose main talking point was the evils of communism. Today those same evangelicals are all about “the unborn” while wearing a “I’d rather be Russian than a Democrat” t shirt).
– the act of winning has engendered a lot of backlash enthusiasm among the opposite side. The blue wave is real and directly due to Trump winning
– a wall of voter suppression and gerrymandering is hard to create and easy to destroy. Basicallly you’ve ceded the “we just want more people to be able to vote and that the composition to reflect the overall will of the people” to the other side. They react with non partisan commissions on redistributing, vote by mail, and automatic voter registration this establishing a permanent blue majority in what was once a swing state (in other words California solid blue, but Texas hold in red is tenuous and based entirely on low Hispanic turnout).
– you also generate (through gerrymandering) and inspire (through you actions) a similar movement in the other side. Bernie Sanders and Occssio-Cortez are examples of this.
But overall, I think, the most damning thing is you have given majority electoral power to a tiny minority which doesn’t deserve it and doesn’t know what to do with it. This means they get some temporary concession (like defense of marriage or stand your ground) that will engender a larger, and uncompromising backlash (gay marriage vs. a civil unions compromise), among a group that will not change and cannot maneuver in the face of electoral irrelevance (these people are uncompromising, and why should they? There is a very good reason their votes weren’t catered to in the first place, at least they got to ruin other people’s lives even if they are made more miserable in the process).
Sure, “moar guns because they might take them away” crowd represents something that is oxymoronic and an increasingly irrelevant portion of the electorate (esp. after the Butina thug blows up their infrastructure like Charles Johnson posting in a right of center political mailing list), but they will still represent a majority of your primary constituency as well as a vote you cannot afford to lose (if you are 50+1 thyroid you cannot afford to lose a SINGLE vote), so you can’t abandon them. It’s a suicide pact.
That’s what has happened in the state of California. We have so few republican politicians, but the few we do have make other republicans blush with embarrassment. If that changes it might be only because our state is no longer gerrymandered. I don’t see that happenning any time soon though because there is a natural geographic divide (urban-rural) between the 50+1 coalition and the 70% of the rest of the state. Maybe CA-50 will prove me wrong and it will flip this year instead of a decade from now.
dww44
@JPL: She smiles? Seriously, her smiles have never struck me as the least bit genuine.@Marcopolo: I already did but am going to do this every couple of days. Will use your number to weigh in with the Majority Leader. I also encourage others to do the same. Just ask him to extend his rationale re Merrick Garland to Kavanaugh’s nomination.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Adam L Silverman:
Any speculation on who in the Senate? Rand Paul selling his soul to the NOT Commies for a dollar would be hilarious.
dww44
@dww44: What happened to the edit function? I didn’t mean to leave the reply to JPL there but since it is, am I the only one who thinks that all of Melania’s smiles were of the beauty queen variety. Gorgeous but not that compellingly sincere. Not a slam at her, because I empathize with her current predicament.
Mrs. D. Ranged in AZ
@The Moar You Know: To borrow a phrase…when I put on my Evil Hat…I think it’s a delicious irony that the a good portion of the party to whom Sen. McCain has been so loyal all these years will cheer his passing. Most of the time, I just think what a horrible way to go.
geg6
@oatler.:
I was just whining similarly about Ari Melber taking this week off (which I bet he’s regretting at this point). I really like how he gets into the legal weeds.
A Ghost To Most
@Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot: They’re more like guidelines than actual rules.
/arrrgh
randy khan
@BruceFromOhio:
For the Republicans in Congress, it’s basically that they would have to conclude that they’re dead meat unless they ditch Trump. Some combination of polling, electoral results, and getting spit on in the street, I presume, but it’s hard to know for sure.
Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot
@Adam L Silverman: I definitely agree with Immanentize (and you) that it’s possible that indictment(s) of the President may be drawn up while the President’s in office, which indictment(s) then wait for prosecution till the President is out of office. I still think that’s a stretch, but possible. My point is that “immunity from criminal prosecution of a sitting President, except for impeachment” is DoJ understanding and precedent, and thus Trump (especially with this DoJ) will not be indicted or prosecuted WHILE HE IS PRESIDENT. I think he will be, though, after he’s out of office, and hope (even expect) he will rot in jail the rest of his life, the most thoroughly disgraced President ever (well, till the next fascist gets elected to the office, I guess).
Look forward to your post on this.
rikyrah
@Immanentize:
LOL
geg6
@Immanentize:
As we all know, IANAL, but I saw a few on tv last night that said there is no reason a state couldn’t indict the Shitgibbon, whether in the Oval Office or not.
rikyrah
@Adam L Silverman:
You are oh so right….
smedley the uncertain
men. We need a well qualified, tough, experienced Speaker who knows where the levers of power are in the House to quickly resolve a multitude of crisis, undo as much damage as possible, manage the impeachment issues, and resolve the the budgetary hits; all the while preparing for the 2020 run up. Someone who can hit the ground running This is no time for someone on training wheels. Pelosi stands at the top of the list to do this.
smedley the uncertain
….men =Amen
rikyrah
@Chyron HR:
Ok. Then leave him in GP with the guards taking a long break, and the Brothas can re-enact what he did to that young man.
Adam L Silverman
@Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot: Actually it is an OLC memo based on an earlier DOJ memo from the Watergate Era. Neil Katyal, who wrote the most recent OLC memo/guidance, has made it very clear that all that has to happen is a prosecutor asks the AG, or in this case the DAG as the AG is recused, for an exception to policy. Moreover, both the Watergate Special Prosecutor and Ken Starr as the Independent Counsel for Whitewater (et al) had briefs prepared arguing why the OLC guidance memo was wrong, has not constitutional or statutory basis, and delineating why a sitting president could not just be indicted, but also prosecuted while in office.
My professional assessment as both a political scientist and a criminologist of why DOJ issued the original guidance during Watergate and the Special Prosecutor at the time didn’t challenge it despite being prepared to do so, is because Congress had already begun the impeachment process. Therefore they didn’t want to challenge it and risk having it go all the way up, losing at the Supreme Court, and removing a potential weapon for future prosecutors. They didn’t need to draw and use that weapon, so they didn’t even try to beyond initial planning to do so.
As for the Constitution it is actually silent on this. It is not silent on the political process for removing a president, which is impeachment. But impeachment it is just that a political process for what any specific Congress decides is a political problem that equates to high crimes and misdemeanors. And despite Hamilton’s Federalist paper on this topic, I find it very, very, very hard to believe that the Founders and Framers, who had been so concerned about the crimes committed by a sovereign that they created a system of laws, not men would create such a system with the intent that it placed the president above those laws.
I agree that this is somewhat uncharted territory. Largely because the Founders and Framers never believed that should a president commit significant crimes while in office, or commit them to obtain the presidency, that Congress would fail to do its constitutional duty, deem these to be high crimes and misdemeanors, and impeach that president in the House and convict and thereby remove him in the Senate. They didn’t make this explicit because they couldn’t imagine they needed to. But just because it isn’t explicit, and that the Constitution really doesn’t deal with actual criminal crimes, as opposed to actions, including criminal crimes, that any given Congress decides are high crimes and misdemeanors, doesn’t mean that the rule of law doesn’t apply or any president is above the rule of law.
sgrAstar
@MattF:
Love that! Thanks for the laugh.
Ian R
@Chyron HR: Thank you. I was still reading through the comments, seeing if I’d have to be that person.
JR
@MomSense: Clear plastic works better than black. Black will block sunlight and get hot but dormant weed seeds will survive the process, and will sprout once you remove it. Clear plastic actually *solarizes*.
The long version is this: you want that solar radiation transmitted to the soil (which is also dark colored) not absorbed by the plastic. The soil will absorb the sunlight and generate heat. That radiated heat will be trapped in the soil by the layer of plastic. Some seeds will germinate but they will die as the temperature gets unsustainably high — like ~150 degrees. Other seeds will simply be cooked. Some spore forming microorganisms will survive but grubs, nematodes, etc will not. To do this completely effectively you need to give it a full growing season but covering a shoulder season will cut down on weeds quite a lot.
Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot
@Adam L Silverman: I know that what I (and the majority legal consensus) believe about presidential immunity is based largely on the ’00 OLC memo referencing the earlier ’73 DoJ memo — it’s what I wrote in my comment at 273 responding to Immanentize. There are certainly well-considered legal differences of opinion on the topic, but (as you put it) it would take a request for an EXCEPTION to the currently-understood DoJ official policy of immunity to criminal prosecution for a sitting president.
That’s all I’ve been saying, that presidential immunity is the fairly longstanding and prevailing DoJ opinion/policy — not some new rightwing meme cooked up by Trump supporters — and that, though it’s possible that this prevailing opinion could be overruled by various means (like, perhaps, a request for an exception) it’s extremely unlikely that THIS DoJ would do that 180. Just as it’s extremely unlikely that the Senate would even come close to 67 votes to convict on impeachment. As I (and many others) have said, that’s the lesson the fascists learned from Watergate.
I hope (and expect) the justice system to grind away on diverse and sundry in Trump’s orbit, and that’s a good and necessary thing (and the more and the longer it goes on, the worse it is in general for the GOP). But Trump and (probably) Pence — just like GOP control of Congress — must be dealt with electorally. Mueller isn’t going to “save us” from Trump, we need to kick his ass out of power ourselves (though Mueller — and others — can certainly provide us with ammunition for that). Afterwards the evil buffoon can rot in jail the rest of his miserable life, and maybe his smug and smarmy spawn can, too.
Mnemosyne
@Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot:
To be totally clear, IANAL, but I am an amateur historian, and it seems odd to me that the US Constitition would grant our president a total immunity that is better than what the kings and aristocracy of Great Britain enjoyed at the time. I could see an actual prosecution needing to be held until after the president is found guilty at the impeachment, but to say he can’t even be indicted while in office seems really bizarre to me.
Adam L Silverman
@Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot: My post is up. You prodded me into just getting it done.
Kathleen
@JPL: He will be trolling for dates and babies to imprison.
schrodingers_cat
@Mnemosyne: Yeah what happened to the rule of law, that we are all equal before the law.
Miss Bianca
@trollhattan:
You sick freak.// I think you just won the Internets with that one!
Miss Bianca
@Litlebritdifrnt: Oh, so sorry to hear this. Wow, British immigration sounding just as sucky as American. : (
BruceFromOhio
@Terry chay: way late to respond but this was very illustrative and I appreciate your presentation of the context of your earlier comment. Rovian politics writ large!