"we must raise our voices in undulating praise to our techno-god elon musk so he won't take away the battery cars" is a hell of a take https://t.co/I2iWiUjxRw
— Dave Gershgorn (@davegershgorn) August 27, 2018
Of all the striking things about the interview with Elon Musk The New York Times published Thursday night—the tears, the lack of regrets over certain tweets, the fact that rapper Azealia Banks may somehow be part of Tesla’s financial future—was Musk’s claim that he’d be ready to abandon his role as Tesla CEO and chairman…
… But there’s no replacing Elon Musk. Because the man is not just a CEO. To many, the man is a legend.
Start with the tale of Tesla. When the company launched in 2003, car salesmen were stocking up on the 12-mpg Hummer H2. The most popular battery-powered vehicles were golf carts. The American auto industry is famously brutal to newcomers, and the idea of one succeeding with electric vehicles racked up the lolz. For years, skeptics waited to bury Tesla alongside Tucker, DeLorean, Fisker. Musk defied them. He made electric cars capable (and sort of self-driving). He made them easy to charge (on an infrastructure he built). But most importantly, he made them desirable. Owning a Tesla became a status symbol; about 400,000 people are on a waiting list to own the Model 3. The entire venture proved you didn’t have to be GM or Ford or Chrysler to make cars in America. And you didn’t have to be BMW or Mercedes or Lexus to make luxury cars appealing to Americans.
Simultaneously, Musk was running SpaceX. Under his leadership, the commercial space company defied entrenched aviation giants like Boeing by breaking into the rocket science business. Musk promised to colonize Mars. As his side hustles, he wished a hyperloop industry into creation, dabbled in artificial intelligence, and won a contract to dig tunnels under Chicago.
And all along the way, much of the world cheered him on. Musk graced magazine covers. He inspired songs. He went on talk shows, appeared on The Simpsons and South Park, made Page Six headlines. Sure, he had a sizable ego (who wouldn’t?) and habit of belittling those who doubted or opposed him (haters!), but the public largely forgave him these minor transgressions given his major skills in proposing big, bold ideas, and delivering on them.
But over the past year, this goodwill has started to fade…
The pressure to perform has eased, but its effects, it seems, endure. Musk cares deeply about what people think of him and his companies. His harsh reactions to negative press often beget more of the same, a surely unsettling shift from the years of mostly adoring coverage he received, of the publicly validated self-worth he must have come to expect. And while he retains a loyal army of Twitter followers, his mantle as a Renaissance Superman, gifted by an enthralled public—and media—is slipping…
"we broke elon musk" is a nifty euphemism for "elon musk reads twitter for some reason"
— Dave Gershgorn (@davegershgorn) August 27, 2018
Yes, I find PayPal very useful too, but I’m beginning to suspect Elon Musk’s unique genius is… well… Look, some of the greatest minds of the ancient world spent their lives working out Ptolemaic planetary regression charts. And that was perfectly respectable! Their work is still used by modern astrologers; modern astronomers, not so much.
Honest questions: Have I missed something technologically significant? All this showmanship around SpaceX and ‘hyperloops’ — is it just a fun way of boosting the sales of high-end branded electric cars?
Mike J
What’s the difference between a Jehovah’s Witness and a Tesla 3?
You can close the door on a Jehovah’s Witness.
Chetan Murthy
Aaaaaand here comes Bess to tell us how St. Elon really *does* know how to produce cars with acceptable defect rates, at scale. With the same arguments as last time, and the time, before, and the time before that.
bago
SpaceX is the real deal. It’s like learning that you can encode links into a document, accessible with the http protocol.
NobodySpecial
Elon Musk invented the mass market electric car, huh? Guess all those Priuses were illusions.
How about Elon invent us some better journalism?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Chetan Murthy: Bess will lead us to the TBogg Promised Land.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@NobodySpecial: Ya still put gas in a Prius, it’s a hybrid.
Jerzy Russian
SpaceX does seem promising. They have already launched some high profile satellites. Not sure how long they will last, but having rockets that can lift heavy payloads into space never hurts if you want to do science from space.
Mike J
@?BillinGlendaleCA: And the Tesla still isn’t mass market. I’d say Nissan is closer.
buck2202
@bago: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2018/08/27/tesla-without-elon-musk-how-once-unthinkable-idea-became-unavoidable/
@NobodySpecial: GM had the purely-electric (non hybrid) EV1 out before the Prius. Incidentally, the first mass-produced electric car to be forcibly reclaimed from consumers and destroyed was also from GE. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1
Can’t tell if snark, but don’t tempt him. https://www.vox.com/2018/5/24/17389388/elon-musk-twitter-pravda
Jerzy Russian
A while back I was approached by a young woman (in her 20s probably) who was selling all-house solar panel systems. These things have big-ass batteries that go on the side of your house. Apparently, you can go up to 7 days on a full charge. I kept asking her how much these things cost, and she refused to tell me. She said, “we need to come out to your house to assess your energy needs”, and I would say, “you can tell me the price of each battery at least?”. I was starting to get really annoyed, since I could not even get an order-of-magnitude estimate. If the system was in the ballpark of $5000, then I would be interested, but if it were around $15,000, then the interest level would drop.
When I got home later I just googled them, and it turns out that this outfit was/is some kind of spin-off company associated with Tesla. The systems are on the order of $10,000 if you get one battery (going from memory here), and $15,000 for two batteries.
It seems to me that you should not be afraid to tell customers how much your product costs. If you don’t get enough business because people don’t want to pay high prices for your product, then lower the prices.
Matt McIrvin
Elon Musk did a lot to convince people that electric cars could be viable products, but electric cars don’t need him any more.
Chetan Murthy
@Jerzy Russian: I’m sure they sold aluminum siding the same way. There’s nothing wrong with the product, I’m sure. But this is -sales-. They’re all the same. It’s why online car-shopping has been such a popular thing: don’t gotta deal with -salesmen-. and -women.
Mnemosyne
@Jerzy Russian:
That would seem to be a pretty basic requirement for anyone who expects to do mass market business. I’m assuming there’s some kind of sales technique there where you try to pry your way into peoples’ homes and then shame them if they say your price is too high. It works on some people, just like “negging” works to pick up some percentage of women, but in both cases it’s usually not the ones you would actually want to have around long-term.
James P Heartney
@Mike J: Nissan is selling an average of about 1100 Leafs per month in the US in 2018. Meanwhile Tesla is now producing Model 3s at a rate of nearly 6000 per week. All pre-sold. And that doesn’t count the Model S or Model X. I’d say Tesla has a far better claim to a mass market than Nissan.
@buck2202: Total EV1 production over three years was less than 2500 units, zero of which were actually sold; instead they were leased at a loss. The EV1 was a pioneering car, but it never even attempted to become a profitable product.
I know it’s fashionable to drag Elon Musk around here, but he really has accomplished something remarkable with EVs.
Mnemosyne
Tangentially related (sort of), I’m amused as hell that Trump has managed to piss off the crafters of America with his little tariff war. Joann’s and other big hobby chains that depend on fabric sales are freaking out and asking their cuatomers to sign anti-tariff petitions.
Apparently Trump didn’t learn from the pussyhat brigade to never fuck with women who make crafts. I guess he’s going to have to learn that lesson all over again this year.
chopper
i will say spacex is doing some serious shit.
Platonailedit
No doubt Musk is wunderkind but he also an asshole in Steve Jobs mold. He has achieved a lot and can achieve more if he cools it. AlJazzera reported today how his ‘board’ is nepotism infested and how saudis, with their oil billions, are trying to fuck with him and his companies.
NotMax
@chopper
Meanwhile, Pence is assiduously intent on turning NASA into camp-meeting-in-the-sky.
Dsn B
My partner, who is a “gearhead” (car nut) loves Elon Musk and Tesla. We drive a Nissan Leaf which we love. Who doesn’t love 75 cents a day for fuel? He believes Musk is being attacked because he’s doing a great job, the speedbumps are bad but over exaggerated. It seems like it may be true because we see more and more 3’s every day, everywhere.
But Musk does seem off his game at the moment. Then again there do seem to be some big shareholders with connections to big oil who may be in it to stop Tesla. But the new electrics on the way seem like a tide on the rise.
Chetan Murthy
@Mnemosyne: Well, as with PUAs, selling siding, used cars, and (one supposes) these household next-gen storage/solar systems, is a one-and-done business, by which I mean, you don’t get repeat business from these customers. There’s a term for that kind of negotation — where you never have to come back to the counterparty, so you try to screw them as hard as possible. Shitmidas’ entire business history is that kind of negotiation.
I do agree with you, that it’s a long-term unstable strategy for a -company-. But if they’re trying to bootstrap, and in fact their prices are pretty high, then it can make sense: the high-pressure sales (they show up at your house and use every trick in the sales book) might be necessary to get the business of the ground. I read that the same was true of selling Tesla cars, for example.
This sort of thing is standard issue in many sectors. I mean, when Ye Olde Gynormous (But Not For Long) Computer Company was selling their Weaker7 machines, they’d tell customers that it was cost-competitive with Intel machines, with both running Linux. Something which was …. WILDLY UNTRUE. I mean insanely untrue. It’s just that they were very good with sleight-of-arithmetic.
For that shit, you gotta be there in-person. With nice lunches and shit. And hell, that’s a “repeat” business, not like selling aluminum siding, and yet, the tactics are the same.
Chetan Murthy
@chopper: SpaceX is also the equivalent of bespoke suits. Or German engineering during/before WWII. Sure, it’s great stuff, but it’s not mass production, and it shows in the amount of engineering effort per unit produced. It’s *completely* different from producing even a not-so-mass-market car. That requires a completely different sort of industrial expertise.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
Yup, one and done. Forget Tesla storage, between the current state of solar, and sealed AGM batteries, it’s a once in 25 year sale, with 0 service calls.
jane says
@NobodySpecial: There’s no such thing as an all-electric Prius.
Platonailedit
@NotMax: Oh, god.
Martin
Musk is a great example of the narrowness of good inventors. He’s able to see good ideas and take the risk to push them onto the market. That’s a good thing. We should reward that. Landing a 14 story rocket vertically on a barge in the ocean sounds like a fucking lunatic idea, but goddamn if he didn’t get it to work. EVs are less of a lunatic idea, but they were still considered risky when the Model S launched.
But he breaks down completely when it comes time to produce at scale. SpaceX works well because the whole fucking point of a reusable rocket is to eliminate the need to ever have to produce at scale. Once he gets away from invention and into engineering, it all goes to shit for him, because the unfortunate truth of the matter is that inventors work pretty well in the kind of culture that Musk creates – long hours, constant flow of ideas (good and bad), jumping onto the next thing at the earliest possible opportunity, etc. But those things are the very opposite of turning out 500,000 cars a year from a production line. That’s hardcore engineering – set up a production line where each job takes no more than 2 minutes and even when things to a bit wrong, the line doesn’t stop. Their software engineering is horrifying. Tesla autopilot is the software equivalent of Trump.
He should come up with the idea, push it through the prototype stage, and then walk away. He’d probably be less of an asshole if he didn’t have the pressure of assuming he can improve upon 100 years of mass production with nothing more than a sleeping bag and a go-to attitude. But I suspect he’s pushed deep enough into the Peter Principle that he’s going to bankrupt both Tesla and Solar City.
Cermet
First off, the engineers and technical people building on a lot of established scientific work (often university prof’s) made his company possible – not that ceo. Yes, he provided direction, chose good ideas and got people working on those said ideas. But that does not make him a genius and especially does not make him the inventor, at all.
As for spacex, mostly hype. Landing a rocket just isn’t done by any cost-effective company because the huge loss in payload delivered to orbit isn’t worth the cost for any GEO-orbit system – not even close. Low earth orbit, maybe. So far, he hasn’t proven that at all in the cost savings I’ve seen published (just the opposite.) So, what has space-x achieved? Neat films of rockets landing like the 1950’s had envisioned without making any breakthroughs in engine tech. There is the key to low orbit cost savings and they haven’t done that at all nor has anyone.
As for Mars – LOLOLOLOLOL. That isn’t gonna happen because he, like most people, have absolutely no fucking clue what in the hell they are talking about when it comes to getting a human on Mars. The radiation environment in deep space and the Mars surface will cause dementia in as little as five months. Sure, you can go but after getting there, your ability to think will be so highly impaired you are not exactly gonna be going anything useful and the condition will steadily get far worse as time goes on.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: Martin, this is really well-put. I remember once reading about how Toyota one year put out a car that was really well-done. And the Detroit execs and engineers took it apart, and marveled at [the example in the article — I’m sure there were others] how few parts the door had. B/c of course, each moving part is a source of wear&tear, and work during manufacturing & assembly. They were blown away that Toyota could do it with so few parts, and get such high quality and reliability.
It’s a different skill from inventing. And that doesn’t even -get- to the stuff you mention about production at scale. There’s the famous story about how W. Edwards Deming went to Japan to teach ’em statistical quality control, b/c he couldn’t convince anybody in America to take him seriously; he taught ’em, and they lionized him for his work. The foundation (so I am told) for Japan’s rise as a carmaking behemoth.
It doesn’t appear that Elon has absorbed any of this enormous backstory and knowledge. I remember reading that 86% of Model 3s coming to the showroom had defects. A rate that would be unacceptable in Detroit, where I think the rate is <10%. Or something like that.
Ah, well. So it goes. Glad I'm not an investor in TSLA.
NotMax
@Martin
In many ways, there’s much about Musk that’s reminiscent of Bricklin, but he’s a better huckster and has access to a better universe of engineering tools.
Martin
@Dsn B: Some of us have been looking at his production promises at Tesla and recognizing that he’s been fucked for a long time. He bought a plant that turned out 450,000 cars a year when GM ran it, and after a decade he’s struggling to hit 40% of that, and it’s because he thinks an automotive assembly line is easy in the same way that Trump thinks winning a trade war is easy. Conventional automakers have two assets – brand, and knowing how to crank out a fuckton of cars. Everything else is a commodity – and that includes the EV drive train. Yes, you’re seeing more Teslas, but holy shit are they still a nobody in terms of quantity. Porsche outsells them by a mile, and that’s an exclusive brand.
I admire what Tesla has done to advance EVs, but they just fucking don’t know how to produce cars, and if you can’t scale your great idea, you’re going to get run over by someone who can. Tesla is a hot brand in CA, but Chevy sold more Bolts here last year.
Martin
@Cermet: I disagree regarding SpaceX. The bottleneck in that industry is production. A factory that can turn out large rockets is fucking expensive to buy relatively little throughput. These are basically Rolls Royces – each handmade, and each having to go through an extensive testing procedure before they can launch. Fuck, just the task of putting the rocket on a test stand (however many states away from where it will actually get launched – how fucking stupid is that) is a massive expense. Being able to launch 25 payloads a year without having to build and test 25 rockets a year is a huge thing. If they can turn it around relatively quickly, with little more than a static fire test on the pad, that will be a huge achievement. They can then scale to the market in a way that is not possible now. 50 launches a year? More? No problem, because it doesn’t require waiting 6-18 months for some guys across the country to build the rocket. Even if it takes a month to turn a rocket around, if you have 8 of them, you can do a launch per week on each coast. Nobody can do that. That’s a real achievement.
I agree the Mars stuff is bonkers, but they’ve got a pretty solid business going without any of that needing to happen. They’re still a bit too seat of the pants for some stuff though. I’ve sent a number of students over there, and they’re proud of the work they do, but it’s a constant struggle to keep the whole thing grounded against Musk.
daveNYC
The SpaceX Falcon 9 has the third lowest cost to LEO per kg of any current launch system, the Proton M is in second and the Falcon Heavy is in first. The SpaceX launchers are also the cheapest to GTO, and they’re the cheapest by a fairly respectable margin too. There’s showmanship, but they’re producing a legitimately valuable product.
As far as I know, Musk’s projects are:
1) Tesla Cars: Electric vehicles and a charging station infrastructure.
2) Tesla Energy: Home solar panels and battery storage.
3) SpaceX: Cheap reusable rockets, including manned missions.
4) Hyperloop: High-speed subway thing, with hats and flamethrowers
Musk might be an egotistical dickhole, but these are all projects that we should want to see succeed. Even the stupid that is the hyperloop is an attempt to expand the non-car based transportation infrastructure.
magurakurin
@NobodySpecial: reinvented is more like. Electric cars were a mass market product at the beginning of the 20th century and at one point there were more electrics on the road than gasoline cars in the United States.
Robert Sneddon
@Jerzy Russian: Really big scientific satellites cost billions to develop and build and because of that there are only a few such missions launched per decade. The satellites are designed to fold up and fit on existing launchers like the Ariane 5 (the selected launch vehicle for the much-delayed 10 billion dollar James Web Space Telescope) or Boeing and ULA vehicles. The Falcon Heavy launch capability fits only a few niche markets, much like its progenitor the Delta 4 Heavy which mostly flies 20-tonne-plus spy satellites once a year for the NRO. The spy satellites are only that big because of the fuel load they need for an extended operational life, they could be a lot lighter otherwise like the Hubble Space Telescope which weighs in at 11 tonnes or so but which doesn’t manoeuvre in orbit.
We’re now very good at assembling stuff in orbit, put there by small(ish) launch vehicles in the 10 to 20 tonne to LEO range. The ISS is over 400 tonnes in LEO but no part of it weighed more than 20 tonnes on the pad. We can even refuel spacecraft and transfer liquids and gases in orbit with little difficulty now which further obviates the necessity for a truly heavy-lift vehicle.
Robert Sneddon
@daveNYC: Don’t forget the ISRO launchers which are cheaper than any American or Russian launch vehicles in terms of per-tonne into orbit. They’re less capable than SpaceX or Boeing or ULA but they are definitely cheaper.
different-church-lady
The problem is it’s becoming an evil Borg.
As for Musk… well, Jobs and Edison and Hughes are all dead, so someone’s gotta take up the slack.
Frankensteinbeck
@Jerzy Russian: and @Mnemosyne:
Cognitive dissonance. The internet definition is completely wrong, and a fine example of the weakness of Wikipedia. Marketers love cognitive dissonance, and use it as much as they can. It’s the ‘foot in the door’ technique. Get someone to agree to something – anything – and they are more likely to agree to more. It flips a switch in the lizard brain, a switch both powerful and invisible to the person affected. It’s why if you are arguing with someone on an emotional issue, you are far more likely to avoid the ‘arguments bounce off’ problem if you get them to occasionally say out loud they agree to small details. It’s why telemarketers try to get you to agree to a phone poll, or even ask you how you’re doing. Even something that minor shows a % change in results.
Ken
@Mnemosyne: Never cross the knitters, as the Evrémonde family learned too late.
Ken
@Jerzy Russian: I wonder if it’s like restaurants that don’t put the prices on the menus – “If you have to ask, you can’t afford it.” Great if you’re an exclusive little restaurant or couture boutique , not so great if you’re mass-marketing.
different-church-lady
@Frankensteinbeck:
TELEMARKETER: How are you today?
ME: Pretty shitty now that you’ve called, but please, continue…
David Fud
We should be thankful to Musk for a reason wholly unassociated with his accomplishments. He shows us what a non-malignant narcissist can accomplish if they are smart rather than stupid. He is having the same problems as Trump now that he is running three or four companies, something no normal person could do.
His mania allowed him to accomplish the incredible things he has. His mania is now at its limit to defy the existing reality and is disrupting his ability to simply ignore his own human frailties. It is instructive that it is so similar to Trump’s temper tantrums and attempts to avoid critique.
Narcicism can push technology and culture forward. Beware the consequences…
PJ
The media, for whatever reason, loves these stories framing businessmen as heroes, and Musk is high (in more ways than one) on his own supply. He’s not a scientist, he’s not an inventor, and he’s no humanitarian, he’s just a guy who is trying to make a lot of money, which is fine, but not in any way special or noble. He also doesn’t appear to be particularly smart. From his recent behavior, I would never invest in any company he was running.
Taiko
“Have I missed something technologically significant?”
Yes.
SASQ
Starfish
The sense of shame I felt by watching this reporter ride Elon Musk’s junk was deeper than the sense of shame that I felt when I saw that someone posted 7000 pages of Manafort texts including some in which his children were discussing their mom being put in a cage and told to bark like a dog.
The Moar You Know
Got it backwards. Space X is the profit machine. If it wasn’t, you could buy shares in it.
That being said, I have driven my mom’s Model S a number of times. The only car that I’ve ever driven that remotely compared was my ex-girlfriend’s father’s 911, and the 911 was not as fast and not nearly so comfortable.
Still gotta bust out the gas powered car to drive to Vegas, though. The S won’t quite make it there.
Mom Says I*m Handsome
Undulating, ululating, whatever.
Now that “irregardless” is an accepted form of “regardless” and “truth is not the truth”, we’ve passed the point where language means anything. Feck it all.
Ps – I respect reusable rockets, and alliteration too.
Miss Bianca
@Mom Says I*m Handsome: oh, so I wasn’t the only one chafed by the “undulating/ululating” conflation, I see!
Bess
Is Elon Musk a “egotistical dickhole”? On what do we base that conclusion? On the one time he lost his temper when someone attacked him and he called the guy a bad name?
Where’s the rest of the evidence?
What is wrong with this site, with so many commenters here? People here get truly upset when false accusations are made about Hillary, Obama, or any other politician we support. Why are so many of us engaging in the sort of character assassination that we profess to hate?
Bess
Yes, you have missed several significant technological advances.
Tesla
1. With the Tesla Roadster Elon and the team he works with demonstrated that battery powered cars did not have to be “golf carts with doors”. They delivered an incredibly fast, long range car unlike anything previously built.
2. The Tesla S made it obvious that electric cars were viable. The Tesla S is not only battery powered, it is incredibly fast and incredibly safe. The Roadster sold for over $100k. The S sells for well under $100k and outperforms all other luxury cars.
3. The Tesla 3 has brought EVs to a much more affordable price point. $35k is only a couple thousand more than the average new car price in the US. When you add in the much lower operating cost for EVs the Model 3 will cost about the same to own and operate over ten years as a gas burning car priced in the mid $25k range.
4. Tesla, along with Panasonic, is building a massive battery factory outside of Reno. In order for EVs to become affordable batteries have to become much cheaper than they were when we were manufacturing in smaller quantities for things like laptops. The Gigafactory is rapidly dropping the cost of batteries to the point at which Tesla expects to hit manufacturing cost parity with same-feature ICEVs this year.
5. Tesla developed and has built a massive rapid charger system that makes it possible to drive anywhere in the lower 48 states with an electric car. The system now covers most of the EU to the same extent. Without a system like that EVs would not be practical cars for many people.
We are facing disastrous climate change. We need to quit fossil fuels. Tesla has moved EV technology forward much, much faster than would have happened if it were left to the traditional car manufacturers who make a few EVs as compliance cars used to lower their CAFE numbers so they can sell a lot of inefficient pickups and SUVs.
6. Tesla also manufacturers solar roof tiles. The cost is about the same as roofing options like slate and more expensive non-solar tile. Roofs for more upscale housing. The difference is, the solar tiles will produce the electricity that your house will use probably for more than 35 years. The roof, unlike any other, will pay for itself through utility bill reduction.
7. Tesla also manufactures and installs massive battery systems for grids. The first installation in Australia has already prevented two large scale grid failures.
SpaceX
SpaceX started because Musk wants to colonize Mars. Whether you think that’s a wise expenditure of money is irrelevant. It’s Elon’s money. He had enough money to get things rolling but needed to make more to make a Mars colony a reality. Here are some of the things that SpaceX has done and is doing to bootstrap the Mars project.
1. Created much less expensive rockets. That means that we are putting communication and earth observation (climate change stuff) satellites in orbit for far less money. We’re sending supplies to the Space Station at a lower cost. If a company or government wants to send a satellite into orbit SpaceX is becoming the company you use.
2. Creating Starlink. A system of low orbit communication satellites that are designed to create cheap global internet access. Those places that will never get a fiber optic cable or even cell tower will be able to connect to the web. People who can’t afford current ISPs will be able to access information from the web at an affordable price. Consider what this can mean to schools and families living in poorly developed countries.
Loop and Hyperloop
1. The Loop is a high speed subway. Every time you get on you would go directly to your chosen stop, no stopping and starting along the way. No pushing your way through people who aren’t getting on or off when you are. You’d travel at speed at or above 100 MPH. This would take a lot of congestion out of our cities and save significant travel time. The Loop is a first step toward building a Hyperloop system. By building a few Loop systems the Boring Company will be able to learn how to make tunnels faster and cheaper.
2. The Hyperloop. First, it’s an unproven idea which may or may not work. But if it works it promises to give us a way to travel long distances faster, cheaper and more comfortably than flying. Pods would leave from convenient locations, not airports some distance from downtown and they would arrive at convenient locations. If the Hyperloop works it gives us a non-fossil fuel means of rapid, long distance travel.
SpaceX was founded in 2002 and Tesla in 2003. That’s what they have accomplished so far. The Boring Company is just getting going.
Bess
Where did Tesla come from? Is it all about selling expensive luxury cars? How about we take a look back to 12 years ago…
Omitting some stuff about the current 2006 grid. If interested to to the paper.
Tracy Ratcliff
To late for anyone to read this, but: I find it interesting that all the Musk-skeptic social media activity spiked just after it was clear that SpaceX had killed the Russian commercial space-flight business that brought in hard foreign currency. It is certain that one of the most prominent Musk-skeptic Twitter accounts was a man who was heavily shorted on Tesla stock, and stood to make millions if Tesla had missed its second-quarter targets.
I will stipulate that Musk is a tech bro who should delete his Twitter account, but he’s done enough tech-style successful “disruption” that you can’t just dismiss him out of hand.
@Jerszey Russian, when did the Solar City rep try to sell you on a system? That company was founded by Musk’s brother, and acquired by Musk a bit over a year ago. It turns out that Solar City’s sales agents were inflating sales just before the acquisition. Once Elon did get it, I understand they have a nice web-based cost estimator, and that the numbers do work out for enough people that Solar City really does have a market.
@Cermet, reusability is a huge thing. Firstly, being able to examine an engine that has done a a full flight profile provides a huge amount of data on what actually happens to the engine that we’ve never known before. The Falcon 9 was designed to capture the majority of flight needs, and if a customer needs extra delta-v they can pay extra to expend the first stage. The head of Arianespace did an interview last month in which he emphasized Arianepace as a European jobs program, since they can’t compete on price. And as I’ve said, SpaceX can undercut the Russians on price, and since the oligarchs have hollowed out the Russian space companies they can’t compete on price any more.
On Tesla, Musk claimed he could automate his way to producing a mass market car. He blew that badly. However Tesla did make its second-quarter production goals (barely) and has caught up on production quality. They are facing a couple of quarters of cash-flow problems, but the fundamentals look good.
OK wall-of-text, obvious Musk groupie… again he’s manages to live up to enough of his wild claims often enough. And he should take a long vacation and get some sleep.
TenguPhule
@Bess:
Which fails at basic math. Musk was basically trying to reinvent the Japanese railway system.
you are not getting 100 mph performance on a closed system with multiple vehicles carrying passengers for multiple destinations. Not if you want live passengers at the end of it.
Bess
@TenguPhule:
That’s one of those ‘wait and see’. Musk and the other engineers who have designed the system believe it will work. Your believing it won’t is now on record.
Personally I’m not seeing the problem you think is there.
We’ve got high speed rail going through tunnels at speeds higher than 100 MPH. The difference is that this is all tunnel.
We’ve got cars changing lanes at 100 MPH and higher. Change into the right lane if you want to take Route A or to the left lane for Route B.
Bess
Let me emphasize part of your comment.
The Tesla short sellers are on the hook for billions of dollars if Tesla stock prices don’t crash. The number has been as high as, I think, $18 billion but generally is in the $10 billion to $15 billion range. That is a lot of money that some people stand to lose if Tesla is successful. A very lot of money. Enough to get some people to do what they can to bring down the stock price and save themselves from financial ruin.
Bess
@The Moar You Know:
From LA? There’s a limo service named Tesloop that makes that trip daily with multiple Teslas. They stop for a few minutes and charge up enough miles to complete the trip. But that’s with early model Teslas. There are now Model S, X, and 3 versions that have over 300 mile ranges, more than enough for the 270 mile drive.
mainmata
@Jerzy Russian: Yes, it’s also very important because it means NASA doesn’t to rely on heavy rockets that come from the people with your last name. :) It’s starting to become a national security issue in that respect because NASA no longer has the heavy lifting rockets with the demise of the shuttle Space X aspires to be reusable heavy duty rockets and demonstrated that last year.
TenguPhule
@Bess:
Its not belief, its this pesky little thing called the laws of physics. Which you and Musk are both doing your best to plug your ears on and go “lalala, I can’t hear you”
What you blatantly ignore in both current and prior examples of “we can go fast, look at high speed rail and planes!” is the distance involved for going at those speeds and what happens when things go wrong. Musk’s “loop” is physically too small a system with too many stops for the high speeds you keep talking about. And has zero margin for error. Have you seen what happens when vehicles collide at 100 mph?
Bess
Vehicles/pods in the tunnels will go only one way. Pods will be in constant communication with each other and the system so that if one has a problem and stops other pods will be instantly notified. Pods will be spaced to allow for safe stopping if it becomes necessary.
There will be no stops along the main tunnel but on branch tunnels.
There is no cross traffic or dogs wandering into the path of the pods. There won’t be sharp rocks to cause a tire to blow.
Explain to me where/how the collisions occur? Not like trains and subway cars sometimes do because they aren’t in contact with each other.
You must be thinking about a reason that I have not been able to imagine. Explain, please.
TenguPhule
@Bess:
30 second intervals? at 100 mph? Safe spacing?
Musk obviously didn’t have any actual engineers design his loop.
The failure points are obvious and invite a cascade of casualties.
Bess
@TenguPhule:
As the system is built out the pods will, obviously, tested and safe spacing will be determined. The system will not be permitted to work unless that sort of issue is resolved.
The failure points are not obvious to me, obviously. Since they are apparently obvious to you please list them.
L85NJGT
Patron saint of every junior engineer who is convinced the bosses are “doing it wrong”.
Bess
@L85NJGT: What does that mean?
Bess
@TenguPhule:
Braking distance for a car at 100 miles per hour, according to the calculator I found is 158 feet.
A pod traveling at 100 MPH would cover 4,400 feet in 30 seconds. Thirty second spacing should leave 28 times as much space between pods as braking would require.
Unless I made a math error, which is possible. Please check.
Brachiator
@Bess: Please go away. This is not an attack. But I am not interested in comments from a self-appointed (or actually hired) PR flack for Musk. He is not that important. Nor is he that interesting. Informal banter does not need to be met with an inquisition or formal deposition.
Bess
@Brachiator:
I am not a PR flack for Musk. And I won’t go away. I have just as much right to post here as you do.
If you are comfortable believing things about people which are not true that’s on you. But let’s see nothing from you about lying Fox News if you’re willing to accept their standards.
TenguPhule
@Bess:
.
Try again
Bess
This site says 499 feet.
https://www.random-science-tools.com/physics/stopping-distance.htm
This site says 320 feet at 80 MPH.
http://www.driveandstayalive.com/stopping-distances/
This site says 500 feet at 100 MPH.
https://arachnoid.com/braking_physics/index.html#Stopping_Distance_Tables
I must have put a wrong number in the calculator I previously used. Sorry. But that is still far less than where the pods would be at a 30 second spacing.
Bess
@TenguPhule:
Your claim that Tesla does not have enough cash on hand or revenue to cover operating costs is incorrect.
TenguPhule
@Bess:
Once again, you are wrong.
Tesla tried to claw back cash from their suppliers. That’s how bad it is.
Bess
@TenguPhule:
First, if you believe anything you see on Seeking Alpha you may put your sanity at risk. The place is totally overrun with people trying to drive stock prices one direction or another.
Here’s Tesla’s official statement –
Bess
@Bess:
Oops, failed to close the quote after “thing to do”.
Bess
@TenguPhule:
Would you like me to give you an overview of where Tesla stands, financially? I’ve got those numbers at hand. I’ll check back in a few hours.