These Senate SCOTUS hearings got me thinking about doing more Senate fundraising, beyond Beto and Gary Traunor. The states most likely to be flipped by Dems are Arizona and Nevada. You can give below to the great Democratic candidates there, Jacky Rosen and Kyrsten Sinema. Donations are split between the two.
We can do stuff for incumbents too — let me know what you think. The endangered seats are ND, MO, and FL. I’m not doing FL because it’ll be a super-expensive race.
Give here to Rosen (NV) and Sinema (AZ). Would send a message to see a big uptick in Dem Senate fundraising right now.
Yutsano
Heitkamp must know something we don’t, because she’s been running her campaign rather quietly. It also helps ND is a relatively cheap market. And the Koch brothers decided not to support her opponent.
Nora
Just donated. When does it show up on the page?
Chris Johnson
“I’m in heaven when you smile”, by Van Morrison?
trollhattan
Like the man said: let it all hang out.
Flipping NV seems…plausible.
Doug!
@Chris Johnson:
Yup
Doug!
@Nora:
It seems to vary. Usually at least 5 or 10 mins.
Ken B
Is Mancin out of the Woods in WVa?
OzarkHillbilly
Not speaking from any expertise or having read anything of late, but Claire McCaskill in MO might not be a waste of money. Not only is Claire a really savvy politician, Hawley seems to be especially weak. A couple months ago the MO GOP was up in arms over his lackluster fund raising and his complete lack of any actual campaigning. Because I don’t watch TV nor do I listen to commercial radio, I can’t speak much to latest developments but I can say that here in trumpistan I am seeing more and more CM signs (tho still not very many) and bumper stickers, and I have yet to see even a single Hawley sign or sticker.
I’m beginning to wonder if Claire planted a sleeper agent in the GOP 20 years ago.
Mnemosyne
@trollhattan:
IIRC, NV currently has one Dem and one Repub senator, and the Dem was elected in 2016.
Flipping NV is VERY doable if we put in the work.
Served
This is exactly the kind of move that needed to be pulled to throw a wrench into this nomination and the kind of politics we need to keep playing:
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1037059893772083200
Gretchen
@OzarkHillbilly: agree. McCaskill is doing a daily constituent with preexisting condition next 30 days. Her opponent is leading the lawsuit to get rid of protections.
Mary G
I am already giving to Rosen, and am not that impressed with her emails, so I went and donated to Sinema separately.
RenoRick
Heller has run more ads this year than ever before. This is the only time he has had a serious challenger in NV. Hell, they’ve got ads with Hanoi Jane in them. Seems kinda silly when Cheeto couldn’t serve due to bone spurs (in between his ears)
I think he will still win, but it’s going to be closer than ever before. NV is slowly becoming a blue state. But we still have a long way to go.
realbtl
I’ll put in a word for Jon Tester. I know lots of folks here don’t like him but he’s about as liberal as Montana will tolerate.
Mary G
I got a handwritten thank you note from the candidate for Texas 04, Catherine Krantz, who must have been in one of the Balloon Juice thermometers and got a dollar from me. Most impressive, would send her more, but her district is blood red, so I am sticking with the closer races.
Chet
How about Donnelly (IN)? The last poll was a month ago and had him +12, but RCP rates it a toss up.
Yutsano
@realbtl: The last polling I saw showed Tester was well ahead of his opponent. We shouldn’t assume anything but Tester seems to be in a decent position right now.
Matt McIrvin
It’s the nature of the system that the races that offer the largest potential effect for your dollar are marginal places where the Democrats are not going to be the most liberal ones.
Jeffro
Folksy sister Lindsey Graham is lecturing the Democrats for being hypocritical re: Kavanaugh, which led him to say, “If you want to pick judges, you’d better win”. Like, multiple times. Lindsey, you prick, I’d like to thank you for some of the best ready-for-TV-ads footage we’ve possibly EVER been given.
Mary G
Kevin Drum quotes our Cheryl Rofer today:
Cheryl Rofer
@Mary G: Thanks! I’ve been doing other things and just checked back to find this good news. I’ve known Kevin via the internets a long time, even subbed for him once.
Platonailedit
Mary G
Dog Almighty, if I hear one more damn praise of Kavanaugh’s team and what a great coach he is, I will barf.
realbtl
@Yutsano: Yeah but I trust those R fuckers about as far as I can push the Rockies.
trollhattan
@Mary G:
“He had the best minivan, the best!”
West of the Cascades
Great minds … I gave $250 to each of them yesterday. Also to Bredesen and Beto. Didn’t give to Heitkamp or McCaskill because both have a huge advantage in non-dark cash on hand over their opponents — some figures I cobbled together while deciding where to pitch $$ to:
Name Party Receipts Disbursement Cash on Hand
Nevada
Dean Heller Republican Party $8,310,649 $3,802,116 $5,874,814 As of June 30, 2018
Jacky Rosen Democratic Party $9,399,665 $5,585,906 $3,828,593 As of June 30, 2018
Arizona
Martha McSally Republican Party $6,670,460 $2,434,278 $4,236,182 As of June 30, 2018
Kyrsten Sinema Democratic Party $9,563,041 $6,446,752 $5,379,923 As of June 30, 2018
Tennessee
BLACKBURN, MARSHA Republican Party $8,091,625 $3,480,076 $7,163,507 As of July 13, 2018
BREDESEN, PHILIP Democratic Party $8,526,736 $5,662,436 $2,864,301 As of July 13, 2018
Texas
Ted Cruz Republican Party $13,207,771 $8,116,097 $9,299,365 As of June 30, 2018
Beto O’Rourke Democratic Party $23,647,799 $10,085,140 $13,961,358 As of June 30, 2018
Missouri
Josh Hawley Republican Party $5,320,513 $2,996,644 $2,323,868 As of July 18, 2018
Claire McCaskill Democratic Party $20,809,801 $14,945,909 $6,645,412 As of July 18, 2018
North Dakota
Kevin Cramer Republican Party $3,268,775 $1,227,668 $2,436,515 As of June 30, 2018
Heidi Heitkamp Democratic Party $8,955,106 $4,337,427 $5,236,129 As of June 30, 2018
and, interestingly:
Florida
Rick Scott Republican Party $22,539,009 $18,024,244 $4,514,764 As of June 30, 2018
Bill Nelson Democratic Party $16,340,115 $4,386,436 $13,699,130 As of June 30, 2018
Indiana
Mike Braun Republican Party $8,451,782 $7,380,326 $1,071,454 As of June 30, 2018
Joe Donnelly Democratic Party $8,878,947 $3,876,384 $6,391,931 As of June 30, 2018
Of course, Scott in Florida will self-finance so the “cash on hand” is sort of meaningless, and it might also be meaningless because of all the dark PAC money that will be flowing in, but it felt like the candidates that can be helped most by infusions of cash are Rosen, Synema, Bredesen, and Beto …
piratedan
the thing is, the GOP has trained us in keeping receipts for all of their doings, and while I don’t want my legislators to exhibit pettiness while legislating as a rule, if the worm ever turns, I wouldn’t have an issue if a certain vindictiveness comes to pass when it comes to pensions and ethics investigations…. If Sen. Grassley (and his ilk) has their own tax bracket at 97%, I think I could live with it.
Fair Economist
@Mary G: Sounds like he should give up his legal career and coach kids.
hueyplong
@Jeffro: Lindsey doesn’t seem to realize that the day will come when whoever has the goods on him decides his sell-by date has come and gone. It will all end poorly for him and he’ll have it coming. All that groveling obsequiousness will have been for nothing.
He’s a gimp’s (trump’s) gimp, and I’m physically incapable of increased contempt of him.
Platonailedit
@West of the Cascades:
That’s great info.
Immanentize
@Platonailedit: Damn! Quinnipiac is gold standard. I guess the overt racist shit is not working even in Florida?
Platonailedit
@Immanentize:
Fingers crossed.
Immanentize
@Platonailedit: Toes too! And work! And cash! I’m barred in FLA — maybe I will check out if I can help on election day….
jharp
“The endangered seats are ND, MO, and FL”
…..and Joe Donnelly in Indiana who I am working my tail off getting folks out to vote.
Barbara
@RenoRick: He is a first time senator who was elected after being appointed. He has not run any prior senate races so I am not sure what point you are making.
Immanentize
@RenoRick: “Hanoi Jane?” Huh? Who gives a shit about that?
Miss Bianca
@Served: Yeah, don’t read the comments tho’, if you want to preserve that word view.
Chet
@jharp: dog bless you for that.
Mary G
Heinous:
We are asking way too much of our military. And no, hiring mercenaries and contractors is not any better.
PsiFighter37
@Barbara: Heller would have lost in 2012 if the Democrats hadn’t run Shelley Barkley. The Democratic bench is really thin in Nevada; I think Cortez Masto won more on the strength of Harry Reid’s machine than because she was a great candidate. Hopefully Democrats can win broadly at the statewide level in NV this year.
This may be an unpopular opinion, but I actually think Bill Nelson is the most endangered Senate Democrat right now. Rick Scott is a snake, but he will do everything he has to, including empty his bank account, to buy a Senate seat…and unfortunately, as a result of Obama’s economy, he is relatively popular as a result. Floridian Democrats have to hit him harder, but they are so goddamn inept (based on the past 2+ decades of electoral experience) that I worry that Scott might actually win by more than he won either of his gubernatorial races – and those were in far more favorable climates for the GOP.
MomSense
@OzarkHillbilly:
I love Claire. Yes, she is more to the right than I (probably more a function of where her constituency in MO is) but she is ruthless in a way I really appreciate. The way she handled Akin was risky but it paid off. I met her a few times in ‘07-08 when she was campaigning with Obama and she was so funny.
MomSense
@PsiFighter37:
Yeah we need to be all in for Nelson.
Mnemosyne
@Mary G:
Jaysus, we’re supposed to hire a Supreme Court justice based on his Little League coaching skills and not his actual legal positions as shown in the previous rulings that he’s made as a judge?
That curve for mediocre white men is raising its ugly head again. Imagine for a minute if all of Sonia Sotomayor’s defenders had spent their time talking about her cooking or carpooling skills and not her skills AS A FUCKING FEDERAL JUDGE.
Mnemosyne
Speaking of elections, I stumbled across this on Twitter: State Farm agreed to settle an election fraud case today where they were accused of laundering $250 million to install their own personal judge on the Illinois Supreme Court, a guy who almost immediately decided a $1 billion case in State Farm’s favor.
Corruption? What corruption? Nothing to see here …
https://mobile.twitter.com/Bill__Donahue/status/1037073726670557184
geg6
OT, but for everyone that saw my post about the abandoned newborn kitten, she didn’t make it. It’s very sad because we thought she was doing okay (drinking from a bottle, peeing and pooping). But I can only guess that she had something wrong to begin with and that’s why the mother abandoned her. RIP, sweet little kitty.
PsiFighter37
@MomSense: I’m not convinced she will win, but Hawley has acted entitled (as well as not really seeming to want the job) that I could see her winning reelection by more than expected. I could also imagine that after Greitens’ implosion, perhaps Missourians may be less inclined to vote for young ‘whiz kids’ who haven’t done jack but have impressive biographies and say the right things.
Hard to say, that’s all I know. It would be nice to see Democrats make a little bit of a comeback in a bellwether state that has turned way, way against us in recent years.
Marcopolo
Only have a second but I actually think in order to help Nelson win in FL you might be better off giving money to Gillum’s campaign. If Nelson wins it will be because Gillum inspired the heck out of minority & low turnout voters to come out in a midterm. Here is Gillum’s donation page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/gillum-primary-win?refcode=website&_ga=2.228420253.188222258.1536098747-727036109.1536098747
Also too, note the poll numbers out today in the FL gov race.
As for my home state Senator, McCaskill, the GOP is currently pouring more outside money into MO against her than any into any other state. She will need all the money she can get and the MO Sen race is currently tied.
I am actually giving $25/week to potential MO state house flippable districts (I have 10-15 IDed) and will be knocking on doors in Arnold MO this Saturday for a D candidate trying to flip an R house seat. In our Aug. 7th primary the vote breakdown was 51.3R-49.7D. This has been a historically R district.
Finally, if Ozarkhillbilly is still reading the thread, maybe ask Adam to send me your IRL email. Lapassionara told me you had said there was a good BBQ place in Cuba & maybe we can figure out a meet up out there. I already have Quinerly & BC in Southern IL’s contact info.
Have a good night everyone.
MomSense
@geg6:
I’m so sorry. Thank you for caring for her innher final days.
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne:
Shithole would have to rise to new heights to meet the standard of mediocre.
This is pure “Fuck you, we’re Republicans” on display.
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne:
Laundered $3.5 million. The $250 million is what State Farm is paying as the settlement.
/shakes head
japa21
Looking at polling.
Possible pickups for Dems are NV, AZ, TN, TX.
Latest polling out of FL has Nelson and Scott tied. Same with McCaskill in MO. At this point in time, that is good news. Manchin is in good shape. Trauner has a chance in Montana.
Dems have a decent chance at picking up 3 seats.
Mnemosyne
@geg6:
I’m so sorry. You did your best, but it’s really hard to save a kitten that gets abandoned so young. ?
catclub
@TenguPhule: but reversing the election is not possible. This is tiresome.
TenguPhule
@catclub:
A perfect test case of corporate personhood to see if you really can execute one.
Steve in the ATL
@Marcopolo: btw, in reference to your email about Stacey Abrams’ chances in the Georgia governor’s race, I neglected to mention one more headwind in addition to being black, female, and a democrat, she’s from Atlanta. The rubes, to wit: all Georgians outside of metro Atlanta, hate us because we are the state’s economy. That’s why we get hick governors like sonny Perdue and Nathan deal and joe frank Harris. God forbid we elect someone who’s not an embarrassment.
tybee
@Mnemosyne: bad link