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You are here: Home / Climate Change / How about that weather? / Late Night Open Thread: Watchful Waiting

Late Night Open Thread: Watchful Waiting

by Anne Laurie|  September 12, 201812:28 am| 49 Comments

This post is in: How about that weather?, Open Threads, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome

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Irony alert. pic.twitter.com/pTOL3Pbb0b

— Byron Tau (@ByronTau) September 11, 2018

Trump can’t coordinate a two vehicle funeral.

Here’s some very good advice, … please retweet it to your folks on the east coast. pic.twitter.com/Tj8ikdcuNc

— Dusty_Lain (@dusty_lain) September 11, 2018

A disaster is when a natural hazard meets a human population, and New Orleans during Katrina is one of the best examples that there's nothing "natural" about this.

It's directly tied to the way we structure our societies that influence where we build, where we live, and /5

— Kendra "Gloom is My Beat" Pierre-Louis (@KendraWrites) September 12, 2018


Also, evacuation is especially hard for people with disabilities and lower income people (to which there's often some overlap), in part because their social networks tend to be more local. They don't necessarily have friends/family away from harm they can stay with /7

— Kendra "Gloom is My Beat" Pierre-Louis (@KendraWrites) September 12, 2018

So those of us who will watch Florence play out through the comfort of distance should keep that in mind. Because if the people I've met over the years in New Orleans are any indication nobody relishes a life divided firmly into pre-hurricane / post hurrican categories /9

— Kendra "Gloom is My Beat" Pierre-Louis (@KendraWrites) September 12, 2018

We had some time before the cops showed up, and so we talked to him – overall he was a nice dude who was running on little sleep in an attempt to get all of the claims in before a state mandated deadline.

He told us this story that stuck with me. /11

— Kendra "Gloom is My Beat" Pierre-Louis (@KendraWrites) September 12, 2018

So the adjuster finished up the work in the home, went outside and found the owner dead on the sidewalk.

He'd had a heart attack. Apparently this isn't uncommon after disasters – the toll wears on you.

To this day I wonder what ripple effect it had on that adjuster. /end

— Kendra "Gloom is My Beat" Pierre-Louis (@KendraWrites) September 12, 2018

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Reader Interactions

49Comments

  1. 1.

    Comrade Colette Collaboratrice

    September 12, 2018 at 12:46 am

    The true test of any disaster response system is how it handles two major events simultaneously. I’m praying to Poseidon and petitioning Pele that this doesn’t turn into that kind of test. Hope everyone and (as much as possible) all their stuff in the paths of the storms stays safe.

  2. 2.

    Major Major Major Major

    September 12, 2018 at 12:47 am

    Stay safe, everyone.

  3. 3.

    philpm

    September 12, 2018 at 12:47 am

    You think maybe if we throw Trey Gowdy at the hurricane it’ll change direction?

    I’d say throw Orange Julius in there, but that’d just piss it off to no end, and Florence would then destroy the entire country.

  4. 4.

    philpm

    September 12, 2018 at 12:49 am

    And everyone, please stay safe. As we have seen for the last 15-20 years, this is not to be trifled with.

  5. 5.

    Roger Moore

    September 12, 2018 at 12:49 am

    A disaster is when a natural hazard meets a human population, and New Orleans during Katrina is one of the best examples that there’s nothing “natural” about this.

    No. A disaster is when a hazard meets a human population. We call a disaster caused by a natural hazard a natural disaster to distinguish it from a disaster caused by a human hazard, like arson or war.

  6. 6.

    opiejeanne

    September 12, 2018 at 12:52 am

    In reference to Kendra’s terrible story, yes, the stress of the whole thing probably killed the owner.

    The Old Fire in the San Bernardino Mountains in 2003 caused 5 to 6 deaths, heart attacks in men. The stress of the threat of losing their home and having to evacuate killed them. The arsonist was charged with their murder when he was finally caught several years later.

  7. 7.

    hitchhiker

    September 12, 2018 at 12:52 am

    I’m just hoping that all 30 inches of rain plus a big fat storm surge has its way with the home of the NC state legislator who successfully lobbied to prevent even the mention of climate science data.

    She has a nice house on the coast, I hear. Her name is Pat McElrath.
    https://abcnews.go.com/US/north-carolina-bans-latest-science-rising-sea-level/story?id=16913782

    Guess what? Federal tax dollars are going to pay to clean up the mess they decided would never happen.

  8. 8.

    Raoul

    September 12, 2018 at 12:57 am

    @Roger Moore: I’ve long objected to the ‘Act of God’ stuff seen in insurance policies and such.
    I mean, what is a 15 inch rain storm in the 21st century? Is that nature, or human-augmented nature? Diety has nothing to do with it either way. Add in our propensity for impervious cover, poorly engineered draining ‘improvements’ (channelizing, wetlands filling, etc) and it’s even harder to find FSM in there.

  9. 9.

    Suzanne

    September 12, 2018 at 12:58 am

    I often get asked about evacuations (and lockdowns) by people who know what I do in my professional context, which is designing healthcare buildings. The AEC industry and building safety authorities typically make changes in code and practice after some sort of building failure, be that a fire, system loss, structural failure, etc. In the past fifteen years, there were two disasters—Katrina and the Joplin tornado—that directly affected hospitals and patient care due to the physical environment of the building. Those two events have had a big impact on the industry.

    Anyway, I always try to impress upon people that evacuating a hospital is a monumentally difficult, time-consuming, resource-consuming, and incredibly dangerous task. Every hospital that isn’t terrible has an evacuation plan—but they all depend on having every ambulance in town come get the patients, and they all depend on having somewhere nearby to go. That isn’t the circumstance in a natural disaster. Evacuating a city is even harder. Roadways are not destined for that capacity. Cars break down, and that’s assuming that everyone does. People get sick or injured. And many people don’t have anywhere safe to go, so just leaving their homes makes them even more vulnerable.

    Hang in there, people.

  10. 10.

    opiejeanne

    September 12, 2018 at 12:58 am

    @hitchhiker: Did you see Rachel’s show tonight? She had someone on, can’t remember who, that said that the way recovery is legislated it’s in their interest to not make changes to infrastructure until AFTER a disaster strikes. And it costs us six times as much as spending the money to prevent the disaster.

  11. 11.

    Anotherlurker

    September 12, 2018 at 1:01 am

    When I walked into my house, 2 days after Sandy, one of the first things I saw was was a wad of toilet paper, stuck to the bathroom ceiling. I began to giggle, I began to laugh and laugh. I sat down on the still soaked floor and laughed harder still, until the laughs turned to sobs.
    Six years later, I have survived 2 suicide attempts, the loss of my career and the imminent foreclosure of my house. The storm “recovery” process more destructive than any act of Nature. The Storm is impartial. The agencies in place to “help” you, all work for the banks and insurance companies. Remember, you are just a mark who exists so that their Masters can low ball your claim.

  12. 12.

    Major Major Major Major

    September 12, 2018 at 1:01 am

    @opiejeanne: Wow, I’d never heard that.

  13. 13.

    Raven Onthill

    September 12, 2018 at 1:17 am

    “URGENT: DSA needs your help to phonebank for evacuation and other emergency services for the 170,000 people behind bars in SC, NC, and VA! Please consider using a few minutes of your time to help out.” – link

    There aren’t words harsh enough.

  14. 14.

    Kent

    September 12, 2018 at 1:18 am

    Coastal North Carolina has the 2nd largest hog farming industry in the country after Iowa. There are hundreds of masive corporate hog farms all over the tidewater area that have largely escaped any regulation due to a compliant legislature. They have massive poorly made manure retention ponds. While people can evacuate I doubt there are plans to evacuate millions of hogs. When the storm surge and coastal flooding occurs there is just no imagining what kind of toxic wasteland will be left in its wake when all these farms flood and the dead hogs and millions of tons of hog manure get spread across the countryside and into the local waterways. It will be the worst kind of toxic soup and become a stinking mess when the waters receed.

    I’ve seen nothing about this on the news.

  15. 15.

    Sister Golden Bear

    September 12, 2018 at 1:24 am

    @Anotherlurker: I’m so sorry. Hang in there.

    To my East Coast and Hawaiian jackals, stay safe.

  16. 16.

    Chetan Murthy

    September 12, 2018 at 1:25 am

    FYI, something hinky going on with BJ’s DNS at some DNS servers:

    [email protected]:~$ host balloon-juice.com
    balloon-juice.com has address 63.247.137.229
    balloon-juice.com mail is handled by 0 balloon-juice.com.
    [email protected]:~$ host balloon-juice.com 8.8.8.8
    Using domain server:
    Name: 8.8.8.8
    Address: 8.8.8.8#53
    Aliases:

    Host balloon-juice.com not found: 2(SERVFAIL)
    [email protected]:~$ host balloon-juice.com 68.94.156.1
    Using domain server:
    Name: 68.94.156.1
    Address: 68.94.156.1#53
    Aliases:

    Host balloon-juice.com not found: 2(SERVFAIL)
    [email protected]:~$ host balloon-juice.com 68.94.157.1
    Using domain server:
    Name: 68.94.157.1
    Address: 68.94.157.1#53
    Aliases:

    Host balloon-juice.com not found: 2(SERVFAIL)

    the first query goes to my local DNS proxy (in router) and gets an answer. The second to google’s DNS (b/c easy-to-remember, the next two to the primary & secondary AT&T DNSes. I also queried http://www.balloon-juice.com (actually did that first):

    [email protected]:~$ host http://www.balloon-juice.com
    http://www.balloon-juice.com is an alias for balloon-juice.com.
    balloon-juice.com has address 63.247.137.229
    balloon-juice.com mail is handled by 0 balloon-juice.com.
    [email protected]:~$ host http://www.balloon-juice.com 8.8.8.8
    Using domain server:
    Name: 8.8.8.8
    Address: 8.8.8.8#53
    Aliases:

    http://www.balloon-juice.com is an alias for balloon-juice.com.
    balloon-juice.com has address 63.247.137.229
    Host balloon-juice.com not found: 2(SERVFAIL)
    Host balloon-juice.com not found: 2(SERVFAIL)
    [email protected]:~$ host http://www.balloon-juice.com 68.94.156.1
    Using domain server:
    Name: 68.94.156.1
    Address: 68.94.156.1#53
    Aliases:

    Host http://www.balloon-juice.com not found: 2(SERVFAIL)
    [email protected]:~$ host http://www.balloon-juice.com 68.94.157.1
    Using domain server:
    Name: 68.94.157.1
    Address: 68.94.157.1#53
    Aliases:

    Host http://www.balloon-juice.com not found: 2(SERVFAIL)

    Not sure what’s going on, but figure I should report it.

  17. 17.

    Chetan Murthy

    September 12, 2018 at 1:26 am

    @Chetan Murthy: Urk: the “http://” in my above comment is inserted byFYWP. It wasn’t in the original text.

  18. 18.

    danielx

    September 12, 2018 at 1:27 am

    Shades of a prediction from Bloody Bill Kristol:

    “We are absolutely and totally prepared,” the President said to reporters.

    Considering the source, and if FEMA’s upper staff are the same kind of corrupt political hacks that serve in other federal agencies…well. For the people that stayed in place and a lot of others, like anybody civilian who may need a rapid and effective federal response, the long version goes like this: my best guess is you’re fucked.

  19. 19.

    davebo

    September 12, 2018 at 1:32 am

    @Raoul:

    I’ve long objected to the ‘Act of God’ stuff seen in insurance policies and such.
    I mean, what is a 15 inch rain storm in the 21st century?

    A Thursday? 15 inches is nothing!

  20. 20.

    Doug R

    September 12, 2018 at 1:59 am

    “We are absolutely and totally prepared,” the President said to reporters.

    RUN!

  21. 21.

    MobileForkbeard

    September 12, 2018 at 2:07 am

    @danielx: By law (after Obama came in, if I remember correctly) the head of FEMA now has to be an emergency management profrssional.

  22. 22.

    Mary G

    September 12, 2018 at 2:11 am

    Republicans worry that they may lose the Senate in November, per WaPo:

    Republicans have grown increasingly worried about losing control of the Senate, as President Trump’s approval rating tumbles and Democrats gain steam in key battleground races.

    Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Tuesday sounded some of the most doubtful notes of Trump’s presidency that Republicans will keep the upper chamber of Congress, telling reporters, “I hope when the smoke clears, we’ll still have a majority.”

    His comments came as Republican strategists and officials fretted over a fresh round of private polling on the Senate races, while public polls registered further erosion in Americans’ approval of Trump. “Shipwreck” was how one leading strategist described the situation, adding an expletive to underscore the severity of the party’s problems.

    So much winning! I’m not super fond of Chuck Schumer, but the thought of Yertle handing over the gavel is delightful.

  23. 23.

    david

    September 12, 2018 at 2:30 am

    If you can fit it in a dishwasher, and it’s valuable to you… take it with you.
    Don’t leave it in the damn dishwasher in a hurricane.

  24. 24.

    JGabriel

    September 12, 2018 at 3:19 am

    @MobileForkbeard:

    By law (after Obama came in, if I remember correctly) the head of FEMA now has to be an emergency management profrssional.

    I’m sure Trump followed that law just as faithfully as all the other laws, because if he hadn’t, the Republican Congress would have investigated and held Trump accountable.

    That’s what Re

  25. 25.

    JGabriel

    September 12, 2018 at 3:20 am

    Hmph. Editing fail. Really missing that edit button.

  26. 26.

    JGabriel

    September 12, 2018 at 3:27 am

    WaPo: Mary G:

    “Shipwreck” was how one leading strategist described the situation, adding an expletive to underscore the severity of the party’s problems.

    Great. Now I’m wondering whether the guy said “Fucking Shipwreck,” or called it a “Shitwreck.”

    Hey WaPo, it would more clarity, and be a lot quicker, to just report what adults say, instead of looking for a roundabout locution every time someone uses a cuss word.

  27. 27.

    JGabriel

    September 12, 2018 at 3:30 am

    “… have more clarity …”

    Jeepers. I give up. I’m a lousy typist, so someone send me an e-mail when the editing button is working again.

  28. 28.

    opiejeanne

    September 12, 2018 at 3:39 am

    @Major Major Major Major: The Old Fire burned 91,281 acres (369.40 km2), destroyed 993 homes, and caused 6 deaths. It merged with two other fires and spilled over into Los Angeles County. 80,000 people were evacuated. The LA Times coverage was outstanding and told stories that we thought were small and disconnected but started joining together to make a bigger story,
    A local newscaster, Chuck Henry and his cameraman were very nearly killed reporting on the fire when the wind changed and they couldn’t get their truck to start, which wasn’t their fault but the usual idiots blamed him. He was a good guy and got press credentials for one of the local guys on the mountain who refused to evacuate and whose house wasn’t in any danger but he needed the press pass so he could get gasoline off the mountain and get back up past the cops. The reason he got the press pass was because he started correcting the newscasts for all the local channels because they were unfamiliar with the small communities and were reporting the wrong names on the air, which contributed to even more angst. Chuck Henry started using his reports and the other stations quickly followed. I mean, Aqua Fria is really small and there’s no obvious sign, but it’s a distinct place/neighborhood. It’s not Rim of the World or Rim Forest or Twin Peaks or Blue Jay. The stories that came off the mountain were amazing and fascinating the way they all sort of joined together. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Henry

    The trial was in 2012 and he was convicted. The fire ran through most of the communities along 18 near Lake Arrowhead, and they turned it away about half a mile from our cabin in Daley Canyon. Everyone said to us, “your place is so close to Blue Jay that they’ll never let fire take it.” but after watching two fires, the one in Santa Rosa and the one in Redding, we realize this is baloney. $1.2 billion in property damage. We didn’t own the cabin at the time, bought it in 2008 and you can still see places that were burned and not rebuilt, trees that are still alive with bad burns on one side. Some areas were so bad that they won’t ever recover, especially with global warming. Some places still look like the surface of the moon.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Fire.

  29. 29.

    Amir Khalid

    September 12, 2018 at 3:39 am

    @JGabriel:
    Until the edit function comes back, we’ll just have to get used to editing our own copy. I’ve found it gives me that much more time to think about what I’m saying, if that’s any consolation.

  30. 30.

    opiejeanne

    September 12, 2018 at 3:46 am

    @Amir Khalid: Me too. Sometimes I rewrite a whole section because I get in such a hurry I forget words, or realize there are better words I could use. I don’t know if it’s really improved my writing though.

  31. 31.

    NotMax

    September 12, 2018 at 3:51 am

    @Amir Khalid

    As one of those who has never had and never seen an edit function here, it is a pleasant change to have so much distinguished company.

  32. 32.

    Patricia Kayden

    September 12, 2018 at 4:02 am

    @Mary G: That’s okay. Republicans are getting Kavanaugh on SCOTUS and filling courts with extreme right wingers before the November election so it’s all good.

  33. 33.

    Steeplejack (phone)

    September 12, 2018 at 4:48 am

    @philpm:

    You think maybe if we throw Trey Gowdy at the hurricane it’ll change direction?

    Is he a virgin? He looks like he could be. Or does that work only with volcanoes?

  34. 34.

    Amir Khalid

    September 12, 2018 at 4:50 am

    @opiejeanne:
    You might not notice it right away; but a second look, and maybe a rewrite, usually does improve your writing.

  35. 35.

    raven

    September 12, 2018 at 5:00 am

    @Amir Khalid: First Thought, Best Thought
    These interviews with Allen Ginsberg remind us that he was a master of improvisation.

    ‘Life should be ecstasy,” Ginsberg says here, and poetry, he implies, should be life. His poetics was shaped by an adolescent encounter with Williams and Pound, their rejection of what he called the metronomic ba-dum, ba-dum, ba-dum of iambic pentameter for the flexible, complex rhythms of everyday speech. As informed by his later discovery of Buddhist meditation practice, this recognition led to the idea of poetry as breath, an emanation of the body as much as of the mind (one reason he gave, and attended, so many readings). Indeed, Buddhism taught him to eschew rationality in favor of ”ordinary” or ”spontaneous” mind, the vast sea of consciousness upon which our concepts and categories, anxieties and prohibitions, float like so much junk. Hence Ginsberg’s compositional method, the moment-by-moment transcription of thoughts and images as they passed across his mind. (The thousand-odd lines of ”Kaddish” poured forth in one 40-hour session.) ”First thought, best thought” was his governing principle: no heed to the high-modernist idea of poem as patiently constructed artifact, but an equally strenuous discipline, for it was only with hours of daily meditation that he maintained his wide-open path from mind to breath.

  36. 36.

    satby

    September 12, 2018 at 5:23 am

    @Anotherlurker: I’m so sorry too anotherlurker. Hang in there. There’s a good life possible after you get through big troubles. It’s hard to visualize when you’re deep in them, and it’s not the future you thought you’d have, but it can still be a good and contented one.

  37. 37.

    tybee

    September 12, 2018 at 5:28 am

    AIEEEEE. the forecast, she has changed!

  38. 38.

    NotMax

    September 12, 2018 at 5:35 am

    @raven

    for it was only with hours of daily meditation that he maintained his wide-open path from mind to breath.

    Also starring Copious Drugs as the Beaver.

    ;)

  39. 39.

    raven

    September 12, 2018 at 5:38 am

    @NotMax: He certainly had “issues”.

  40. 40.

    opiejeanne

    September 12, 2018 at 5:43 am

    @tybee: Where are you now? Are you safe?

  41. 41.

    opiejeanne

    September 12, 2018 at 5:45 am

    @Anotherlurker: I am so sorry. I hope you stay with us for a long time and that your terrible troubles lessen so your life becomes good.

  42. 42.

    Amir Khalid

    September 12, 2018 at 6:00 am

    @raven:

    First Thought, Best Thought

    True in our inspired moments, but not all the time. When we’re between one inspiration and the next we still need to figure out what we want to say and that’s when we need craft.

  43. 43.

    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism

    September 12, 2018 at 6:35 am

    @Kent: It was a serious problem after Floyd in 1999. Coal ash is another concern.

    Hurricane threatens hog farms, sewage plants and people downstream

  44. 44.

    Honus

    September 12, 2018 at 7:05 am

    @raven: he pretty much single handedly backed down Sonny Berger and the Oakland Hell’s Angels down from breaking up an anti-war march during Vietnam. That’s some pretty impressive strength of spirit.

  45. 45.

    Edmund Dantes

    September 12, 2018 at 8:08 am

    Please for the love of god people, stop quoting the stupid dishwasher valuables thing.

    It shows a horrible lack of critical thinking.

    “It’s water proof”

    “Oh yeah? Two words: Sewage Backup”

    It’s one of those classic on its face “smart” “common sense” ideas that is actually pretty damn stupid if you spend even one second thinking about it.

  46. 46.

    PenAndKey

    September 12, 2018 at 8:36 am

    @Edmund Dantes: disconnect the dishwasher hose and screw a cap on it and you’ve got a large waterproof box. Sure, most people either forget or don’t know how to do that, but it’s still useful advise.

    If they can take the items with them that’s certainly better but if they can’t a sealed dishwasher is better than nothing.

  47. 47.

    Edmund Dantes

    September 12, 2018 at 8:54 am

    @PenAndKey: still not going to work. Unless you then take the dishwasher and wrap the door in such a way to keep it from being dislodged or broken off the home hinges as all the stuff sloshes around in the flood waters.

    All of which is several several steps removed from “put your valuables in the dishwasher”.

    You’d be be better off spending your time putting them somewhere where they actually will be safe.

  48. 48.

    Wyatt Derp

    September 12, 2018 at 10:28 am

    First of all I hope for minimal damage and casualties during the hurricane. Please everybody take all precautions you can.

    I do think the response to this hurricane will be very interesting. The response to Maria was of course a disaster but was it racism or incompetence. I suspect a healthy scoop of both but the Trump cult probably assumes racism and is fine with that. What will happen when the response to “real Americans” (aka white people in red states) is also late, sloppy, and poorly executed? When confronted with disaster on the ground will reality start to intrude just a little bit?

    I can always hope.

  49. 49.

    J R in WV

    September 12, 2018 at 11:48 am

    Saw a piece on TV (think it was NBC, could have been MSNBC via intertubxz) people preparing to flee the oncoming storm, were laying the china on the dining room table and wrapping it up to take with.

    CRAZY

    There are so many more important things to take… just box the china and leave it, if it survives, it’s more valuable for having made it, if it doesn’t who cares. Papers, meds, the cat, leave. You can buy underpants when you get there… or if not, who needs underpants in a hurricane?

    I wonder if there would be any money making bookcases that are waterproof up to hurricane strength winds/? preserve the books for posterity? Nothing more valuable than history…

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