A deluge of Democratic spending in the final days of the battle for the House has triggered recriminations among Republicans and forced the party to lean on its biggest patron to salvage their majority.
Since the end of July, Republican candidates in the 70 most contested races have reserved $60 million in TV ads, compared to $109 million for Democratic hopefuls, according to figures compiled by media trackers and reviewed by POLITICO.
We are doing our part. We have raised a little over 300K this cycle. Let’s hit our goal for the More More More fund, 47K split among 47 House candidates suggested by readers. You can give to just one or two to avoid mailing lists if you like.
burnspbesq
Fuck Sheldon Adelson. Beat him, and rub his nose in the loss. Dance in the parking lots of every one of his casinos.
Martin
Congressional Leadership Fund has pulled support for Rohrabacher and Walters. Walters is around -5 to Porter in the latest NYT poll. Rohrabacher is even with Rouda in that poll. Rohrabacher is polling surprisingly well – he looked really doomed a few months ago – so pulling his funding is surprising. Internals must look worse.
Canvassing event this morning (raining now, will canvas this aft). In CA-45 they were getting 15 volunteers each weekend pre-Kavanaugh. That went to 60 the weekend he was confirmed. It’s 90 this weekend. They’re pretty organized but they don’t really know how to reach the university. I’m going to work with them specifically on that.
WaterGirl
Boy would i love for Rohrabacher to go down! No idea who Walters is.
Glad you are there to make a difference with the university students.
dmsilev
@WaterGirl: She’s an Orange County Republican. “Fiscal conservative” type who at least professes not to be keen on the whole overt racism etc. thing. Unfortunately for her, Trump effectively is on the ballot.
What I find more interesting is that both Duncan Hunter and Devin Nunes have non-trivial chances of losing (they’re both still favored, but are not sure things). Unlike Walters and Rohrbacher, whose districts have been steadily moving towards ‘swing’ over the years, those two are in deep red areas. Of course, Hunter is under indictment for campaign finance fraud and Nunes is notably doing everything he can to cover up Trump’s Russian connections, so they really only have themselves to blame. Not that that’s how they look at it.
Martin
In CA the following races are toss ups: CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48. CA-49 leans D. I think there’s a good chance we get 6 of the 23 pickups needed right there. CA-50 (Hunter) is still leading, but with indictments, I don’t think anyone trusts the polling there too much. CA-21 is where Dems could really surprise. Lots of Latino Ds in that district that tend to note vote. With the Democratic party having money and expanding the map, that’s where a bit of ground energy could go a huge way.
MazeDancer
New PostCard just introduced today. Reads:
The first of a several new designs will roll out this week. Part of the “Big, Blank Back” Collection. They all have addresses on front, leaving lots of room in the back for those that like to write or draw.
All the PostCard designs on the site are free to download, print, and use.
Also, have a bank of highly focused addresses to use to support Antonio Delgado. Dems who registered in 2017 in Hudson, NY. If you know CD-19, you know these are serious liberals with prime GOTV prospects. Delgado will need these folks. Come and get ’em.
PostCardPatriots.com
guachi
California may be heavily Democratic but it has so many people that it has the 3rd largest Republican Congressional delegation after Texas and Florida.
Looking at yesterday’s 538 numbers Ds are estimated to pick up this many net seats in the following states (top 15 listed):
CA 4.7
PA 4.6
NJ 3.0
FL 2.3
NY 2.1
MI 2.0
VA 2.0
NC 1.8
TX 1.8
IA 1.6
IL 1.3
CO 1.3
AZ 1.2
KS 1.1
OH 1.0
As a % of the Republican seats in the state expected to flip (to give an indication of how endangered Republicans in that state are overall) here are the top 15:
NJ 60%
IA 54%
ME 38%
NM 36%
PA 35%
CA 34%
CO 32%
VA 29%
MT 27%
KS 27%
AK 25%
AZ 25%
NY 24%
MI 23%
WA 22%
Some states (like ME, MT, AK, NM) only have one R rep so the numbers aren’t quite as impressive.
NJ and PA are definitely the states to look for in the early returns.
trollhattan
“Dear Steve Wynn,
“It was all just a yuge misunderstanding and we’re really, really eager to welcome you back into our Exclusive Executive Klub.
“Welcome back, friend, and feel free, even encouraged to join in some of our very attractive campaign investment opportunities.
“Your best friends,
“The Republican Party”
Martin
@dmsilev: Hunter’s district is nearly impossible for Democrats. It’s military and white retirees. The indictments might be the thing that puts a D over the edge, but I don’t see the Dems holding that seat once they get someone who isn’t going to prison running on R side. Nunes is more of a turnout fight. Lots of latinos in that district that just need to turn out. Like CA-21, it’s the kind of place where ground game is key, and these are the districts where historically the DNC doesn’t even show up. Having the DNC in OC and not the RNC is kind of shocking. Things are really different, and that makes polling really hard to do. I suspect a lot of turnout models are going to be busted next month. To Nunes’ credit, he’s done a decent job for his constituents where ag water rights are the single issue. I don’t know why he decided to stick his dick in the Trump fan and make that his most visible characteristic. Had he stuck to local issues he’d be a lock.
MazeDancer
@Martin:
Got in a bunch of new Harley Rouda addresses if anyone would like to write some PostCards to help sink Rohrabacher.
The Rouda campaign is very well organized. Send new addresses within hours. We’ve restocked 4 times in our 12 days of existence.
One lovely lady in CA, recovering from surgery, is on her 3rd batch of 100.
Please feel free to ask for 5 or 10 addresses. Not everyone is quite so motivated to send Rohrabacher back to St. Petersberg.
Mary G
Katie Porter has been running a great race she wasn’t supposed to win against Mimi Walters, who may pretend not to be a racist, but has shown up at all kinds of “illegal immigrants are taking our jobs and welfare money” events for years. Dana Rohrabacher inexplicably still has plenty of fans, because he surfs and is in favor of legal marijuana, but I get the feeling that the Trump stink is going to do him in.
Mike Levin in my district, running for the seat Darrell Issa was supposed to own for life, must have a shitload of money. Canvassers left an eight-page full cover booklet at the house this week, and the ad about Nancy Harkey’s Ponzi schemes is all over the internet. She has a few yard signs, but I haven’t seen anything else from her, and my wingnut neighbors are ignoring her, which is a bad sign. They usually plaster their yards with all the Republican candidates, but they couldn’t take Twitler and now are mostly invested in the usual bloody city council wars.
dmsilev
@Martin: Definitely if Hunter gets ousted, that’s a one-term hold for the Democrats. Still, it’d be worth it both for the one extra vote over the next two years and also because Hunter is a reprehensible ass who deserves to be tossed out of Congress (and preferably into prison). We’ll have to see what happens with Nunes, but again if he gets ousted, it’s probably back in R hands after 2020.
R-Jud
In for a Grant. Thanks, Doug!
Mary G
@Martin: I still have hopes for Ammar Campa Najjar over Hunter. The usual voters may be white and military and old, but there are a shit load of Latinos living there who have never voted much, and if they turn out enough of them, he has a chance. He is a real local boy, has been active in his church for years, and I would not rule him out. It’s a real long shot, but maybe doable. Twitler has floated taking more immigrant children away and that won’t sit well there.
FelonyGovt
@Martin: My BFF is very involved in the CA-48 race (Rohrabacher) and doesn’t feel great about our prospects. Still lots and lots of old conservative white Republicans in that district, and they always vote, she says. Still, I think like most of us, she’s concerned about being too optimistic after what happened to us all in November of 2016.
Martin
@guachi:
Right. We have 39Ds and 14Rs. That’s why the CA R seats are so much in play – top to bottom the state is strongly Democratic, skewed hard to the left in 2016 compared to the rest of the country, and so those remaining R seats are able to pull from a lot of nearby D districts. Nobody should be shocked to wake up on Nov 7 and see CA at 45D, 8R. And this is a state with a redistricting commission, automatic voter registration, early voting out the wazoo, and same day voter registration. There is no voter suppression effort here at all to produce those D results.
Belafon
Along those lines, from Beto:
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1050733011623337985
p.a.
Well the (((‘Soros money’))) smear is already a thing, so why the eff not ask him to open his wallet? What are they gonna say? “Oh look! Now he really IS donating!” ????
Martin
@MazeDancer: I may go over and canvas there as well. CA 48 wraps around the other side of the university, so it makes sense for me to do that too. Student housing is in CA-45, and most students live on the east side of the campus in CA-45, but there’s a growing number that live just west of the campus in CA-48.
Postcards and phone calls aren’t how you reach those students. Neither are reporters with microphones. I asked my son if he had been at that stop if he’d have put his hand up (he’s a very enthusiastic D voter) and he said ‘no way in hell’. I chatted with a number of students about that segment and they all agreed that they are pretty distrustful of the news, not in the Trump sense, but I think they’ve grown up being able to control their own message on social media and Youtube and whatnot, that they don’t see any point in talking to a TV reporter where the coverage will be edited without their input.
I watch the voter drives on campus run by the student democrats and they’ve been very effective. Students aren’t that disengaged, but they still need to be connected with. I’m much better at talking with 20 year olds than 50 year olds, to be honest.
Martin
@Mary G: I do too. The indictment is such a weird variable that I wouldn’t trust the polling that much. And besides, the only reason he’s running is that he couldn’t get his name off the ballot. If he does win, he’s going to have to resign the seat and we’ll have a special election and all the work that has gone into that race will hopefully carry over to Najjar then.
Drylake
Took a call from a CA-10 D activist the other day, and duly ponied up some money; when I mentioned volunteering, the first thing he asked was if I spoke Spanish, and was audibly disappointed when I responded that I did not. He then offered that Hispanic turnout has “sucked” in the district. So if any Bay Area jackals speak Spanish, their presence out in Modesto would be warmly welcomed, and it’s only an hour away
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
Is it too late to suggest more candidates? I’d like to put in a good word for John Boccieri who’s running for Ohio’s 33rd Senate district. An Air Force Reserve Lieutenant Colonel who deployed seven times to Iraq and Afganistan, he’s previously served as House Rep to Congress and was appointed to 59th Ohio House district in 2015. He voted for the final form of the ACA. He previously won the 33rd Senate district in 2006, though he ran unopposed. I don’t know the polling and he does have name recognition but so does the R running against him. His name is Rulli and he’s somehow related to a family that owns a local supermarket chain. He was caught using his employees posting campaign signage and that’s in violation of local election laws evidently.
I think he could use a boost. This is website
oatler.
What’s disturbing to me is how rightist sources are trying to gaslight the nation that Hitler was a leftist, that the Democrats are “violent leftists”.
George Spiggott
@Martin:
Been doing my part for CA-21 in writing/sending out postcards to get out the vote for TJ Cox. Lots of volunteers in the East Bay Area doing many GOTV methods for this race:
– Canvassing
– Texting
– Postcards
– Phone calls
We like our chances
MazeDancer
@Martin:
Very happy to hear this. Because that segment was flatteningly depressing. Started yelling at the screen. Couldn’t believe they were all so spaced and didn’t care. Glad to hear there is life out there.
And good on you to go canvas for Rouda. With all the great ways to vote in CA, really you can have an impact just reminding people to mail-in their ballot.
Unlike NY. If we flip the legislature this year, maybe we can bring up NY Voting access to 20th century standards. At least a weekend of Early Voting. Something.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
this biggest patron?
just imagine if Obama et cetera, et cetera
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’m a certified old, being harassed by the AARP and get random junk mail from funeral homes (well, one, but I didn’t like it). A few years back I was working in a starbucks and a young woman I assumed was a local TV correspondent– I deduced this from the guy following her with a camera and the microphone in her hand– asked me if I had a few minutes to chat. I said, thanks, but I’m kind of busy. She and all the people around me were taken aback at someone who didn’t want to be on TV! Doesn’t everyone want to be on TV? No.
I noticed even the two kids who did talk to Soboroff never broke their stride as they got on the bus and never really looked at him
Soboroff’s work on the child prisoners was good, and you could sense his low-key righteous anger about it. He’s better than the “youthful nerd” schtick MSNBC keeps assigning him.
Hellbastard
I used to live in Texas so I’ll be making a small donation to the Beto campaign. The rest of my donation budget will be going to Lisa Brown in WA-5th, my home district.
Marcopolo
Just finished a dual state house/senate canvass here in MO. By far the most D friendly turf I’ve knocked period (but then I’ve purposely been going to R to B flip areas). Finally found folks who wanted yard signs. Chilly but dry compared to yesterday so it was a pretty good time.
Will finish off 60 postcards later.
Thanks to everyone chipping in their own little bit this weekend!
donnah
I just saw two guys walking up the street in front of our house, and suspected they were canvassing. One of them paused, checked out our house number, saw the Theresa Gasper for Congress (D) and hastily moved along. heh. Had he come to the door, I would have given him an earful.
I haven’t seen any Democratic canvassers out yet. My son and husband will be out soon, though. The signs out in our area are mostly an even mix, but our neighborhood runs pretty red. Time to flip!
Kim Walker
Pennsylvania has set up an online voter registration site for voters who are outside PA. Lot of rigamarole in setting up an account on one site, then going to another site to download the ballot. I was able to set up the account, but was not able to download the ballot. The message said something about “due to security concerns” this webpage won’t work. I have concerns that may be the point of it.
WaterGirl
@donnah: I was way late to the thread where you posted a link to your current project. That’s going to be amazing! Did you draw that yourself? Is it in honor of someone in particular? Do you have a plan for that piece, as you did for Pooh at the library? So many questions!
Martin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: UC Irvine doesn’t really fit the big university stereotype. We don’t have a football team and the campus isn’t really set up for big rally type events. The campus is very academic and studious. It’s not cutthroat. I’d best describe it as enjoyably nerdy. Dance and esports are the big student activities. We have fraternities and sororities, but they tend to be more academically focused. There isn’t a big party scene. So we attract a lot of introverts. What you saw in the Today show clip is what happens when you try and interview a community of introverts.
donnah
@WaterGirl:
Oh, thank you! I often create hooked rugs with a special message. I’ve hooked a rug about the threat of extinction of African elephants, a rug about women abuse, one of the genocide in the Congo, one about Alzheimer’s and a few others. I believe my art should illuminate a cause or serve to reach out to others.
This one is of a Marine and his bomb-sniffing dog. I am anti-war, but I also recognize that there is a special bond that those who serve in the military share, and I wanted to share the intense connection that these soldiers have with the dogs who help them.
I don’t have specific plans for this when it’s finished, but who knows?
Thanks!
MazeDancer
@Kim Walker:
Can’t find anything about voting online or downloading ballots in PA at the official PA Gov site.
https://www.votespa.com/Pages/default.aspx
Maybe I’m just overlooking it. But would check with them.
WaterGirl
@donnah: That connection came across, even though it appears you have just started hooking. You do amazing work, thanks for sharing it with us.
Sister Golden Bear
@Martin:
Introverts Unite! And then look awkwardly down at our shoes…
Cheryl from Maryland
Writing postcards for Jennifer Lewis in VA-06. I grew up in that district when M. Caldwell Butler (Rockefeller R) was Congressman. As a freshman Congressman, he was one of the first GOP members to call out Nixon and call for impeachment. I hope the district returns to the good governance and courage it had rather than the GOP cowardly scum (like Bob Goodlatte) who have held the seat since Butler.
tobie
Don’t forget to pitch in for the Dems fighting for the Senate. I’ve been texting for McCaskill (fun), phone banking for Heitkamp (not so fun but super important), and will look in to doing something for Rosen. All three campaigns could use volunteers.
WaterGirl
@Sister Golden Bear: My favorite button from my “button period” in my twenties:
Dyslexics Untie
Kim Walker
@MazeDancer: Yes, thank you, I will. My husband registered and then tried to download the ballot, but it wouldn’t work for him either. Could be that we are out of country.
Barry
@MazeDancer: “Got in a bunch of new Harley Rouda addresses if anyone would like to write some PostCards to help sink Rohrabacher.”
I’ll help. bdecicco 2001 at yahoo point com