. @cecilerichards reminds us that her mother Ann was elected governor of Texas 28 years ago with no polls showing that result beforehand.
“Polls don’t vote, people do.” Even truer in this year in which literally anything, good or bad, can happen. https://t.co/4UKHLRaS47 pic.twitter.com/rHkbyT1qUH
— laura olin (@lauraolin) November 2, 2018
Whatever happens, by this time next week, we’ll know.
Peter Hamby, at Vanity Fair, points out that at this point time, even the professionals don’t know — “Sorry, Pundits, But You Have No Clue What Will Happen on Tuesday”:
… Every piece of evidence we have about voting behavior during the Trump presidency—special elections in various corners of the country, public and internal polls, early voting data in key states—indicates that we are heading for a midterm election with explosively high turnout. University of Florida professor Michael McDonald, who studies voting patterns, estimated recently that almost 50 percent of eligible voters could cast ballots this year, a turnout level not seen in a midterm election in 50 years. Trump, in his way, is loudly trying to juice Republican turnout in red-leaning Senate races by demagoguing the threat of illegal border crossings, which happen to be at their lowest point in decades.
Enthusiasm in this election, though, is mostly fueled by Democrats. Aside from college-educated white women, much of the Democratic coalition in 2018 is comprised of voters—young people, African-Americans, and Hispanics—who don’t typically show up in midterm elections. And the main thing to remember about high-turnout elections, especially ones that bring non-traditional voters into the mix, is that strange things can happen. House seats once thought to be safe are suddenly in jeopardy, like Republican Steve King’s solidly red seat in Iowa now appears to be…
…[S]ince Trump took office, polls have consistently underestimated Democratic performance. “The polls in governor’s races, those special congressional elections, in the Alabama Senate race—on average they underestimated Democrats,” said Harry Enten, the CNN analyst, formerly of Nate Silver’s poll-and-data-driven site, FiveThirtyEight. “The error statewide in Virginia in 2017 was greater than the average error in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2016.” But why? Northam’s pollster, Geoff Garin, said his biggest lesson from the Virginia election last year is that new voters are storming the gates in the Trump era and throwing turnout models out the window. Pollsters who aren’t accounting for the shifting electorate—a wave of new voters who haven’t been previously reached—could be making a risky mistake. “I think some polls are not reflecting the ways in which electorates are likely to expand,” Garin said. “Turnout in Virginia grew by nearly 17 percent from 2013 and 2017, with roughly 374,000 more voters. In our voter-file analysis, 30 percent of the people who voted in 2017 had not voted in either the 2009 or 2013 governor’s races, which indicates people were dropping out and moving away as well as dropping into the electorate.”…
Enten put it another way. “Response rates are trash and they are trash among young people,” he said. Pollsters are more transparent about these shortcomings than pundits, who have a nasty habit of taking individual polls, even crappy ones, and using them to make sweeping claims about the election. “Polls, at least in this day in age, are about as accurate as they had been in the last 30-40 years,” Enten said. “But as long as we recognize the potential pitfalls of polling and recognize they are just tools, then we will be better off.”…
You know who knows the precise composition of this year’s electorate? No one. Electorates mutate every two years. They get older, they get younger, they get browner, they get whiter, they get smaller, they get bigger. They respond to new candidates and shifting issue sets. Using past turnout patterns can be useful when modeling a universe of voters, but the polls cannot tell us with certainty what will happen on Election Day anymore. In a volatile environment where Trump has saturated every inch of our cultural fabric with politics, who the hell knows what’s going to happen? Maybe Democrats might actually win the Senate. Maybe Republicans will keep the House. Maybe Trump’s nativist final push will actually yield big returns just where he needs them. Or maybe not! Just let people vote. The only currency to cling to in the post-Trump era is that all bets are off…
HeleninEire
At the airport headed to NY. Of course I am an hour and a half early cuz I’m such a do-gooder.
Looking forward to getting back and seeing everyone. I’ll also be able to watch the election results live with y’all on Tuesday! We can all celebrate together.
Baud
@HeleninEire: ( like your spirit.
Baud
@Baud:
( = I
Van Buren
Dogs got me up at 320. I put them out, fed them, they went back to sleep. I went back to bed, they got up and start barking. I came downstairs, they promptly curled up and went to sleep. Lather, rinse, repeat.
NotMax
Everyone deserves some some legerdemain in his or her weekend.
(While watching, keep in mind all those oohs and ahs are coming from an audience primarily composed of professional magicians. This is from the FISM conference this past July.)
@HeleninEire
Wowsers, double jet lag. Clocks change in NY on Sunday.
Raven
A gunman on Friday shot six people, two fatally, at a hot yoga studio in Tallahassee, Florida, police said.
The two people killed were identified as Nancy Van Vessem, 61, and Maura Binkley, 21, according to Tallahassee Chief of Police Michael DeLeo.
The suspect, Scott Paul Beierle, 40, of Deltona, Florida, died of a possible self-inflicted gunshot wound, DeLeo said.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@HeleninEire:
I believe that you need to be three hours early here in God’s Country®, since we’re afraid of our shadow.
God’s Country is a registered trademark of the Republican National Committee, a subsidiary of the Trump Organization.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone ???
?BillinGlendaleCA
It was pretty clear yesterday, so I ventured to Downtown LA and up to SkySpace, here’s the view(360 degree pano).
HeleninEire
@NotMax: Yeah we changed the clocks here last week. I’ll be OK going into NY. I’ve got dinner plans with my niece so I’ll be forced to stay up and go to bed at a reasonable hour. It’s coming home to Dublin that kills me. I get back at 5 in the morning after being up all night.
Raven
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Catalina?
Baud
@rikyrah: Good morning.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Raven: Beierle had two prior arrests for being a grabass. And a stint in the Army between the incidents.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Raven: The dark thing that looks like an island? PV. You can see a little bit of Catalina in the haze behind PV. You could see Catalina pretty clearly up at SkySpace. You can’t see it in the pano because it’s so small.
rikyrah
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Beautiful
NotMax
@Raven
Oh gawd, De Santis is going to glom on to the Tallahassee bit like a starving dog with a bone.
Raven
@?BillinGlendaleCA: What’s straight out?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Raven: PV. There was quite a bit of haze towards the coast and the sun was in that direction making it appear more hazy, so PV looks like an island. If you look really close you can see a darker area to the left of PV and that’s Catalina. It shows up well in the full size photo, not so well in the smaller version.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@NotMax: A lawyer associated with the Parkland kids was in the bar downstairs where people at the yoga class fled to. I don’t think this will go like De Santis thinks it will.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@rikyrah: Thanks, it was good day to head up there.
JPL
@NotMax: Yup!
Raven
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Right below the sun glow past the ACM Building?
OzarkHillbilly
In more than a few races, maybe not. A certain number will be too close to call that night and maybe for several days after. And then there will be contestations and the possibility of recounts.
Raven
@OzarkHillbilly: How’s the wing? I’ve been at the beach in the am.
OzarkHillbilly
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: Another mass shooting by a white guy with a gun. ,
“Thoughts and prayers”. Yeah, that’s all he or any other Republican have to offer.
OzarkHillbilly
@OzarkHillbilly:
HELP, I need somebody
Help, not just anybody
Help, you know I need someone
Help……
In moderation…. For reasons I can not imagine
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Raven: Here’s that portion, full size. If you can make out any land mass above the AON building, that would be Santa Barbara Island.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@OzarkHillbilly: You know what you did.
OzarkHillbilly
@Raven: Still very painful. I have full mobility but there’s a catch in there and working above my shoulders is really difficult. I see the Doc on Monday. We’ll see what he has to say. No doubt PT at the very least.
Raven
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Whew, if that was PV I was in trouble!
Raven
@OzarkHillbilly: Shit, I guess that’s some progress.
OzarkHillbilly
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Yeah, I got up this morning.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@OzarkHillbilly: Reminds me, I need to get some sleep.
OzarkHillbilly
@Raven: There are 3 that I can think of:
1) 6-8 years of favoring it has the muscles all out of whack.
2) The bursitis is saying “I’m not done with you yet, bitch.”
3) He missed.something, possibly torn cartilage.
or some combination of the above. If it’s the first, OK. If it’s the 2nd, I think it’s too soon for another shot. If it’s the 3rd or some variation there of, it will be awhile before I can do anything about it. We lose our insurance at the end of the month and I don’t yet know what we can get via healthcare.gov
OzarkHillbilly
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Thank dawg I got some last night because the night before I got zip.
geg6
Well, I think we have adopted a kitten. This little one has been hanging around our house and is very friendly. Apparently, while I was out enjoying the Queen movie last evening, John brought her inside and put her in the spare bedroom in the basement. I discovered this when I went down to empty the dehumidifier this morning. She is very cute. But do we really need a third animal?
OzarkHillbilly
@geg6: I think it was you who was adopted.
HeleninEire
OMG SCORE!!! The seat next to me is empty!
Raven
@OzarkHillbilly: here’s hopin for #1!
HeartlandLiberal
Well, we failed to vote early as planned, but will definitely be going to the polls Tuesday. I am proud of my city / county for using machines that use human readable sheets you mark with pencil which can be scanned for speed, but audited by human eyes, and are NOT electronic devices the programming of which can flip my votes.
Leaving in 15 minutes to drive an hour and 15 minutes to north east side of Indianapolis. Third and final class on rules of Duplicate Bridge, with the afternoon devoted to a written three hour test, which, if passed, certifies me as a Bridge Director for duplicate bridge games sanctioned by the ACBL. I have studied this week till my eyes were ready to roll out of my head. The Laws of bridge are among the most dense, poorly written English I have read in a while.
JPL
@HeleninEire: Have a good flight and enjoy your visit in NYC.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@HeartlandLiberal: Mr DAW plays duplicate. He’s a life master. I saved our marriage by never, ever sitting down at a bridge table.
AkaDad
I heard Trump funded the caravan to use as a campaign issue.
Anyone onTwitter want to start #TrumpFundedTheCaravan?
OzarkHillbilly
@Raven: I suspect a combination of 1 & 2. My bursa is still inflamed because the muscles are out of whack.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@OzarkHillbilly: White Republican guy with a gun.
With a history of grabbing women’s asses, starting in the cafeteria line at FSU.
satby
@OzarkHillbilly: been there. The shoulder therapist I had thought there was some impingement, like part of the ruptured tendon had slipped into the joint because it was excruciating to try to raise my arm beyond a certain point. It took daily exercises but I have pretty much the full range of motion now.
Try letting a hot shower run on that shoulder as you slide your hand up the wall as far as you can, and try to go a little farther every time. That helped me.
HeleninEire
@HeleninEire: And…….I spoke too soon. We are returning to the gate. Sick passenger. Of course.
Amir Khalid
@geg6:
@OzarkHillbilly:
Ozark is right. As mentioned in an earlier thread, it is the cat that decides these things; the humans just go along with it. The kitten has decided that you shall be her humans, and that is that.
debbie
@OzarkHillbilly:
I’ve been doing these every day for my frozen shoulder. I know this ends when it ends, but I feel like I’m doing something to help speed it along.
Spanky
@geg6: You’re asking US if you need a third animal? To quote werebear, the answer is almost always “more cats”.
MazeDancer
The Early Voting numbers reported by Rachel Maddow were so astonishing I paused the DVR to copy them:
2014 2018
AZ 724,238 1,276,830
FL 2,358,370 3,673,751
GA 706,383 1,827,940
IN 150,276 464,554
MT 163,441 261,459
NV 250,380 525,742
TN 283,410 1,294,507
TX 1,737,949 4,736,591
The gender gap is about +5 or +6 more women in all the states but Georgia. There it is +12. Yay, Oprah! And yesterday was a stand in line from pre-dawn to late, late night day, so that will go up.
rikyrah
@geg6:
Awe ?
MazeDancer
Sorry about hard-to-read chart. Looked better before posting. Can’t edit.
rikyrah
@HeleninEire:
Yeah ??
rikyrah
@HeartlandLiberal:
Good luck
waratah
@BillinGlendaleCA: My daughter and friends are attending a star party tonight with a local astronomy club in Palo Duro Canyon. They have no special cameras or telescopes but had fun when they went for a night walk there this summer with a Park ranger. That time they did buy some red lenses glasses to see what was crawling around in the dark. They are trusting the club will have telescopes they can see through.
MazeDancer
@geg6:
Three? Three is a good start.
Congrats!
rikyrah
@MazeDancer:
Are those numbers from TN and TX real?
zhena gogolia
@NotMax:
My thoughts exacctly.
I didn’t intend those two c’s but I’m leavin them there
Immanentize
@Raven: Are you back from the beach?
TS (the original)
@debbie: I did 2 variations of your first one for my frozen shoulder – bend & move the arm back and forwards – 10 times, then at 90 degrees move the arm across the body – 10 times (as my physio said, like an elephant’s trunk). Hold the bench/table with the other hand. Do it as many times each day – as you think of it – or when the shoulder is especially sore. I probably did it 4/6 times a day. (My physio also used the door exercise – but I found swinging the arm gave me more relief.)
I did just this for 9 months – woke up one morning & the shoulder was fine. And that was weird – I couldn’t believe it had just “unfrozen” itself.
OzarkHillbilly
@satby: I have full range of motion. It’s just painful. Took down some of my tomato trestles yesterday afternoon, went to bed with an ice pack for a lover.
Platonailedit
@MazeDancer:
That’s some amazing numbers worth a repeat
State – 2014 / 2018
AZ – 724,238 / 1,276,830
FL – 2,358,370 / 3,673,751
GA – 706,383 / 1,827,940
IN – 150,276 / 464,554
MT – 163,441 / 261,459
NV – 250,380 / 525,742
TN – 283,410 / 1,294,507
TX – 1,737,949 / 4,736,591
I sincerely hope they are all for anti-turdism.
Immanentize
@MazeDancer:
I know it’s a midterm, and they judge 2014 against 2028, but why can’t they add in2016 just to show how close to Presidential election rates we are? It would be more useful info.
TS (the original)
@rikyrah:
Here are the Texas figures
36% or registered voters have voted – without the figures for Friday.
Immanentize
@Platonailedit:
Like A.L. says, we don’t know what anything means. Will there really be more voters in the end (I hope so!) Or are people just listening to everyone who tells them to bank their votes now rather than on election day. Both, no doubt, but at what levels? It’s the Georgia numbers that give me the most hope.
Immanentize
@TS (the original):
What was the 2014 %? Do you know? Now that would be a useful comparison value.
ETA. Go Bexar County!
OzarkHillbilly
@debbie:
It ends when I die. I’m on a first name basis with Arthur, Burt, and Ted. 40 years of framing and hanging will do that to one. Thanx for the link, I’m already doing the first five. We’ll see what PT brings me.
Platonailedit
@Immanentize:
But these are actual votes, not some crappy ‘opinion poll’ numbers. I have a good feeling about these. Fingers (and toes) crossed.
Matt McIrvin
@rikyrah: Yes, but not necessarily good news–we know the early-early, mostly mail-in votes were heavily Republican (as they usually are–Democratic early voting tends to pick up later in the period). There was a lot of crowing about a red wave after the first few days of early-voting numbers.
debbie
@TS (the original):
I’ll add those variations, thanks! Sigh, nine months though…(sniff).
OzarkHillbilly
Woman becomes first NFL cheerleader to take a knee during national anthem.
Matt McIrvin
@Immanentize: It occurs to me that these high turnout numbers could actually be bad. We’re accustomed to thinking that high turnout benefits Democrats, but that’s because historically Republicans are more motivated to vote. But in this cycle, the enthusiasm/motivation numbers were upside down–Democrats seemed more fired up to vote. So maybe we’d actually want low turnout, to keep the Republicans home.
TS (the original)
@Immanentize: It’s somewhere on that website I think. I’m somewhat confused about the registered voters. There were 2-3 million more in 2016, 2017?
This page gives total election results – and maybe I’m reading figures incorrectly but I see
2014 registered 14,025,441 Total voters (presumably including prepoll) 4,727,208 about 34%
2016 registered voters were 15,101,087 total voters 8,969,226 about 59%
It would seem more people have early voted than the total voters for 2014
Platonailedit
@Matt McIrvin:
Dems are fired up but we would want a low turnout?
What a load of bs nonsensical trolling.
Immanentize
@OzarkHillbilly:
What type of framing hammer did you mostly use? I have an old leather grip –heavy– estwing from my uncle which a carpenter told me couldn’t be used anymore in the trades. Too heavy?
Ken
@Matt McIrvin: I’ve read that twice now, and I still think Alice’s conversations with Humpty Dumpty made more sense.
TS (the original)
@debbie: And it really didn’t seem like anything was happening until it just got better. About 6 weeks into my physio visits we got flooded out so by the time things got back to normal I didn’t bother going for more physio – perhaps it may have been quicker if I had – but she initially said 6 months to a year. Sorry.
Immanentize
@TS (the original):
Thanks. That is such a great chart, but I wish we could see the same one for similar days over the years. Oh well. I need to just lie back and think of Obama.
Meanwhile in Texas, I am a bit nervous to see Cameron and Hidalgo Counties with lower EV %s. Beto needs the Valley! Go Colonias.
Nelle
@debbie: Thanks for the link. I’m mostly working on getting my new hip functioning but the bad shoulder wants attention too
TS (the original)
@Platonailedit: I have a good feeling too – As we are continually told – republicans always vote – so surely those millions of extra votes have to be a large % of democrats.
Immanentize
@Platonailedit:
Makes sense to me — we want Dems fired up and to go to the polls and Republicans to be ‘one and done’ Trump voters who never again show up to the polls.
No?
Platonailedit
@TS (the original):
Yup. That’s my logic too. That and the constant meme that the rethugs always win in low turnout elections. And yet we have alternative facts aka bs here spinning for the rethugs.
eric
@Immanentize: especially since the reports are that the party registration numbers showed GOP leads in the early numbers. Importantly, the constituencies we need are energized. The problem is that we are fighting in places where the lean is heavily red. None of the bloviating matters. You play to win the game. And, dems have done that and more. I am not worried about the house. I am hopeful about the Senate, and more hopeful about the governorships.
Schlemazel
@NotMax:
that was amazing. I looked at the comments just out of curiosity & this was my favorite
“If you look closely you can spot him cheating by dedicating years of his life to perfecting his art.”
PsiFighter37
3 days to go. I’m liking the turnout numbers – TN is at 6x the usual for early voting? I have to think that is good news for Bredesen. I still think Heitkamp’s a goner, so we need either Bredesen or Beto to pull out a shocker.
I think we’re going to end up with more surprises in House races, though. Forecasters are saying 30-40 range…I think it’s going to be 50+.
Ksmiami
@OzarkHillbilly: they can choke on their thoughts and prayers- pathetic, weak, complicit Republicans- they cannot solve any challenges for modern America.
Schlemazel
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I read last night that flicker is changing thier agreement & people might lose access to older photos they have stored there. Are you aware of that? Sorry I don’t have more details just thought of your work out there.
TS (the original)
@Immanentize: Here are the 2014 % but not by county. For the senate total vote was 33% of registered voters & 18% (so more than half) voted early
Seems to me that the total vote this year could be closer to 2016 levels than 2014.
OzarkHillbilly
@Immanentize: I started out with a 24 oz. than as the years and miles of nails piled up dropped to a 22 oz. of varying grips, early on wood handled, later as shock absorbing grips became more effective steel and fiberglass, now using a fiberglass on the rare occasions I frame.
Certainly not too heavy (for curb and gutter work I used an 8 lb sledge with the handle cut off @ 16″ to drive the road pegs) probably the leather grip. The leather gets slick and hard to hold when wet. I hadn’t heard that, but it’s been a long time since I’ve seen a leather gripped hammer.
Hard to hold… Reminds me of a kind of funny story. Worked with a guy for a while who had an old wooden handled framing hammer that the head was loose on. After every nail he’d give the handle a few vertical up and down knocks to reset the head. The dumbshit did it for weeks. The inevitable happened and eventually the head came off on the back swing.
Just as the foreman walked by behind him.
Caught him with a glancing blow on the side of his head. Me and 2 or 3 other guys had to hold the foreman back long enuf to get dumbshit off the site. He wanted to kill dumbshit and for good reason. His injury was little more than a knot on the side of his head but it could have been a lot worse.
Ohio Mom
When I was a young woman and had my first bout of bursitis in my right shoulder, I was amazed that my internist said I didn’t need a PT.
Right then and there, she demonstrated all the exercises I needed to do. The breadth of my internist’s knowledge! She knew so much about so many things.
I now know that at any given moment, a gazillion people are walking their arms up walls, and all the rest. Shoulder exercises are far from esoteric.
I liked it better when I was that naive.
Raoul
@MazeDancer: The numbers are amazing! (And yes, tabular data is a pain to even attempt to format in these comments)
OzarkHillbilly
@TS (the original): I like to think that trump was put over the edge by a surge in new *R* voters and that there just aren’t that many new *R* voters to come to the polls this year (I know that in ’16 there was quite a surge in my precinct, this years primaries were far more subdued) So I am telling myself that most of these new registrants are D because they now know what not voting has cost them.
It’s a dream I have…
(*R* for Racist)
ja
I think this is one year that we shouldn’t pay much attention to party affiliation. A lot of Republican women are voting for Democrats this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if close to 10% of Republican registered voters are voting for Dems.
Raoul
@Matt McIrvin: I don’t want to be pollyanna, but huge numbers of under-30 and new voters in a mid-term seems to suggest better things for Democrats. Trump’s popularity is at around 40%. Are young people and never-voteds really getting motivated to go make the effort to register and early-vote to ratify him? Gawd I hope not!!
japa21
I think this is one year that we shouldn’t pay much attention to party affiliation. A lot of Republican women are voting for Democrats this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if close to 10% of Republican registered voters are voting for Dems.
HinTN
@MazeDancer: Yay 2014 * 4 in Tennessee. The downside is that my early vote was probably canceled out by an early 40s “looked-like-he-ought-to-be-a-union-man” but was clearly voting R guy. But hey, I’ll take the numbers and cross my fingers.
That
is 50% is a crying shame.
Raoul
@eric: I think the sleeper story of 2018 may be state legislatures. The Dem candidates I’m following here are motivated, and out personally doorknocking all the time. The districts are small enough that retail politics matters. Elks lodges, county library meet-n-greets, etc.
And in greater MN, a lot of women are contesting incumbent GOP seats. I’m hoping this pattern is repeating nationally (and I know that folks like Data for Progress) are pushing state legislative fundraising as a counter to past GOP action at that level.
Let’s GO.
Marcopolo
@OzarkHillbilly: Hell, we will be waiting for a week for all of the mail in ballots to process in CA & WA. If any of those races is close…checks notes, a lot of them are close, it will be a bit before we have the final results.
jonas
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: When I heard “yoga studio” and “shooting,” I immediately thought it’s one of two things. 1. A DV issue — guy decides to take out his ex-wife/girlfriend and then off himself. 2. A RWNJ domestic terrorist targeting a young, multicultural, mostly female crowd engaging in an insidious foreign ritual. My bet’s increasingly on nr. 2.
PAM Dirac
@Matt McIrvin:
In the states I’ve been following (MD, NV) that list early votes by party, R turnout is up, but D turnout is up even more. In Maryland the D lead in voters after early voting was ~100,000 in 2014 and ~275,000 this year.
debit
@geg6: I congratulate you on your new kitten overlord. This is how I’ve adopted almost all of my cats. It starts to get cold, I go outside and there’s a cat. “Hello cat,” I say, and pat it. “Go home now.” “No,” the cat replies. “I am home. Now open the door.”
Post some pictures?
Raoul
@HinTN:
“50% is a crying shame.”
No shit. As part of a nonpartisan GOTV effort at my large, urban Unitarian Universalist church, we did some confidential data crunching thanks to the MN s.o.s. making past elections data accessible.
We discovered that somewhere in the mid-60s percent of our congregation voted in the 2014 mid-term. Well above MN’s 50% mid-term participation but a big surprise to us who view UUs as uber-voters and really, really engaged.
I’m just amazed at how many folks either take democracy for granted, or have become so cynical, or have been so thwarted by hoops (that last really should not be an excuse in our congregation, though. Well, none of those three should be for UUs. Out 5th UU Principle is specifically about the value of democratic process!)
Marcopolo
@HeartlandLiberal: If you are voting using an opti-scan ballot (fill in the ovals/circles) do yourself a favor and take a black sharpie with you. For years I dutifully went to the polls and used one of their ball point pens to do this trying to get every last bit of white eradicated. Now I take a sharpie with a blunt point & I am done a lot faster. Except I voted early this year which meant no paper ballot option…grrr.
debit
@japa21: That and suburban voters. I keep seeing stories about Trump energizing his gorilla base, but the suburban moms especially are repulsed and voting D this time.
eric
@Raoul: agreed. Amazingly, another sleeper story is just how well Dems are doing in house races against GOP incumbents, when incumbents almost always win. The reporting of the closeness of these races seems oblivious to just how incredible it is that things are this close after the gerrymandering and with the voter suppression. I think the Youngs are waking.
Women, and especially black women, have been leading the way.
OzarkHillbilly
@Marcopolo: Yep. I expect lawsuits too.
Platonailedit
@japa21: Good point. All the more reason a higher turnout is better for dems.
Platonailedit
Schlemazel
@MazeDancer:
Also saw yesterday tht 18-26 was up 400+% in GA. That is hard to understand but, if true we are underestimating the wave size by a bit
TS (the original)
@Raoul:
I have trouble believing it is anywhere near this high. If 40% were guaranteed GOP voters, plus those who always vote R but don’t like trump, with the current level of gerrymander and voter suppression the GOP would hold the house. I’m going to be hiding under the bed on Wednesday if those early votes aren’t indicating a major vote against trump and the GOP.
Looking at Tennessee 1,294,507 early votes. In 2014 for governor the total votes were 1,353,728 and for Senator 1,374,065 Early vote from Rachel was 283,410
This is a massive increase in the early vote. 2014 Early vote was 20% of the total vote.
jonas
@Raoul:
Almost certainly not. Trump has done ass-all for anyone who’s not a older, privileged white male. He’s making it harder to afford student loans. He opposes raising the minimum wage. He’s making it harder to get health insurance. His tax cuts were heavily tilted toward upper-income families with kids and and wealthy business owners. Brett Kavanaugh rich asshole antics represented everything they’ve ever hated. And so on…
PAM Dirac
@japa21:
I have been working with a candidate for State Senate in MD. There is very little polling in the local races, but one of the paid staff said that one of them polled R women and in our area only 15% were committed to voting R, 35% were voting D and 50% were undecided. I found those numbers astonishing and even if the undecided mostly come home, that’s around a 40% D vote from R women.
@Raoul:
I think a lot of places are going to be like Va in 2017. Certainly in MD that D candidates that have stepped up are VERY hard working and positive and have knocked on a lot of doors. Not surprisingly, they have been mostly women and a lot of teachers.
Marcopolo
@Immanentize:Just to throw in a tidbit here–more folks have now early voted in TX in 2018 than voted in total in 2014. There is one other state that has hit that as well but my mind is not remembering. Also based on how many of the early votes are coming from first time/newly registered voters the data crunchers can do a decent job of figuring out if the early vote is cannibalizing the election day vote. Mostly these folks are saying there might be a little time-shifting of votes but not a lot.
For example, Jon Ralston (political reporter in NV) has been covering the EV there which has been heavy in both the rural areas (very red) and Clark county (Las Vegas) and he said from a closer look at the numbers that it appeared in the rural areas there were more early votes coming from super voters (so folks who would have normally voted on election day) while in Clark there was a higher percentage of first time/newly registered voters. Last, as of yesterday NV was at 80% of the 2016 EV.
Guess we will see next Wednesday. And the best place for consolidated EV stats is this guy.
Raoul
@eric: I read a pice last night by one of the data nerds (Sam Wang, maybe? I read a lot of links from the Twitt-box).
If I was getting the thrust right, one of the risks of gerrymandered districts is that incumbents get lazy and don’t invest in re-election infrastructure. That works most of the time, but in wave years, they get really screwed. Incumbents in, say, +2 to -2 seats have to hump every time and manage to pull split-ticket voters (it’s how we keep having Collin Peterson win, and his dist is may more than -2). But in a wave, with highly motivated voters, I think the mass message that GOP pols have been invisible in their districts, dodging townhalls, etc, is resonating. That “I don’t have to show up or do anything to win again” posture is OK in low-turnout ‘safe’ seat. But maybe not this year.
Specifically, I’ve been following a race in downstate IL. The challenger (a personal friend) is not likely to win. But on Facebook, he’s been posting side-by-side the the absolute fail ‘ads’ his multi-term incumbent places – tiny, B&W, often looking like it was done on a dot-matrix home printer (saying basically just ‘vote for Dude’) vs. the challenger’s quarter page, professionally (volunteer) made, full color ads that list the key issues and positions and why the race matters. The incumbent is sleepwalking. It’s a +15 dist, so even as much as I personally love and respect my friend who is challenging, I don’t think we’ll win. But the contrast between take-for-granted seats and what happens in ‘normally’ competitive seats (so few alas) is amazing.
The sleepwalkers in, say, +7 gerrymanders are at real risk this year. Some of them, anyway.
PAM Dirac
@eric:
I haven’t seen any numbers gurus comment on the GA early vote which surprises me because I would have thought a +12.5 points for women would have never happened before. And this is after over 2 million votes.
WaterGirl
@OzarkHillbilly: If nothing else, Adam will rescue you when he returns on Monday.
tobie
As some of you know, the Congressional candidate I’ve been canvassing for in MD-01 has been running an ad showing him and his wife at target practice, making fun of his affiliation with the D party and proudly broadcasting that he would not be supporting Nancy Pelosi. This was all too much for me and I made a big stink about it. The campaign wouldn’t answer my emails, so I called Sen. Van Hollen’s office and had a long chat with one of his legislative aides. Fast forward to last night…I was texting for McCaskill so I wasn’t checking my phone for calls, but when I was done I realized I had a 4-minute message from the candidate himself explaining the ad to me. I still don’t like the ad, and I’ll have to think long and hard about why I find the pot-shots taken at Hillary and Nancy and Maxine from the left and the right so disturbing, but I was extraordinarily touched to learn that, on occasion, my government does listen to me.
Immanentize
@OzarkHillbilly:
The more the Democrats have a decisive victory in the House on election night, the fewer law suits there will be at the Congressional level because the party won’t pay for them. Now on the local kevel!? Watch out.
Raoul
@Platonailedit: Her ads have been excellent. This latest is gorgeous. She rides that harley with some style. When she gets to the bar and walks in past the biker dudes, its like she’s just sliced her opponents nuts off and handed them to him in a little greasy paper sack, without even having to reference him.
TS (the original)
@Marcopolo: Thanks for that. Given there is still a day of voting to add to the totals if Tennessee doesn’t pass its 2014 vote totals it will be very close & Georgia is not far behind. What I see different between Texas and Tennessee/Georgia is that in Texas 2014 the early vote was a larger % than election day voting, whereas in Tennessee the early vote was only 20% of the total – so will there be a massive total vote increase there? Same with Georgia – it’s early vote in 2014 was about 30% of the total vote. (Edit: I think closer to 40% – maths fail)
I’m amazed the pundits haven’t been pulling these figures apart in an attempt to gauge the final vote tallies (not by party, just in total). It surely has to be 2016 levels.
OzarkHillbilly
@Raoul: Agreed. They get lazy and lose touch and then just lose.
Immanentize
@Marcopolo: Thanks for the link. I’m not putting any value in to early voting numbers this round. It has never been found to have a clean statistical corrolary to final vote totals — yet. But I find it all so very nyeresting.
Marcopolo
@Schlemazel: Wherever you see these percentage increases cited celebrate them but also take them with a grain of salt. Yes, it is great that the percentage is up like that but virtually every age group is seeing increases this year. Here’s what I mean. Say in some election there were normally a hundred voters and historically the voting breakdown included 8% under the age of 35 and 35% over the age of 65 (which is off the top of my head but somewhere in the ballpark of real elections). Thats 8 younger voters and 35 older. A difference of 27. In the next election young voters surge 500% so there are now 40 young voters. Older voters surge 100% (which is also what we are seeing) so there are now 70 older voters. Now the difference is 30 votes. More older voters even though the percentage increase among the kids was off the charts. Now perhaps the new old voters are also voting D but who knows.
Unless you have the actual numbers, percentages can be misleading.
OzarkHillbilly
@tobie: As NancySmash said, “I don’t care what they say. Just win.” Ds in red districts have to play this game every election just as Rs in blue districts do. Don’t take it to heart, they’re just trying to win.
Raoul
@TS (the original): Gallup weekly tracking has him at 40%. And that’s with a big drop after the attempted bombings. Next data drops tomorrow.
The thing is, with the economy where it is (I know, wage growth hasn’t been what it should be, but unemployment, housing, GDP etc are solid) any not flaming a-hole president would be at 60%. Easily.
Yes, he’s toxic. But I believe the 40%. We’ll see very soon what the massacre in Pittsburgh and the ego-in-chief’s ‘response’ yeilds. I hope he’ll be back in the 30s.
Immanentize
@TS (the original):
That would take two things to happen:
1). Some hard-ish work and
2). A willingness to discover and report a pro-Democratic Party narrative.
Haven’t seen either much.
Spanky
@tobie: Hoyer constituent here. Thanks for stepping up and making the stink about it. To get that phone call means that you did make a difference in the candidate’s mind.
Good job!
Another Scott
@NotMax: Very well done! Thanks.
Good morning, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
Marcopolo
@PAM Dirac: I have to head off to knock doors after this, but yes the gender divide in the GA vote this year is the largest in history in a statewide election for which we have good data. Go Stacey Abrams!
OzarkHillbilly
@Platonailedit: @Raoul: Yep, she castrates him. Looked up Carter’s profile. Somehow managed to avoid Vietnam thru a combination of being in school, luck, and something else (5 years between graduating with his BS in ’64 and getting his law degree in ’69. IIRC a JD takes 3 only years)
chris
Meanwhile in Canada FFS! Bannon vs. Frum, guess who won?
Going out now to hit inanimate objects with an axe. Grr.
TS (the original)
@Marcopolo: Reply to a Jon Ralston tweet
Nice to have a reason to smile again.
Raoul
@Schlemazel: Other states are posting big gains for under-30 voters, too. It seems that one thumb-sucker about the twelve young people who aren’t voting that stoked all sorts of middle age outrage on my FB feed last week was, maybe just a teeny bit, click bait.
f@OzarkHillbilly: Good point. But going forward, what I hope we can do is to convert those younger first-time voters into every-time voters. That’s how we win longer term. I think the contrast of the Obama years with these shitshow years may build a cadre of progressive voters who will vote progressive for a lifetime.
We’re just now starting to shake off the Alex P Keaton voters from my misspent youth.
Marcopolo
@Immanentize: C’mon folks. This is a lazy narrative. There are a lot of election data nerds/pundits who are doing just that. Nate Cohn said he expects there to be about 110 million votes this midterm (according to his models) but he freely admits his models might not take into account what is going on. So look at Nate Cohn or David Wasserman or Nate Silver or G Elliott Morris or Harry Enten or Steve Kornacki. Or the link I put in my earlier post. They are all looking at this stuff & trying to figure it out.
Anyways, that is who I think of when I think of election pundits. If you mean regular old pundits then more’s the pity.
Raoul
@chris: The loser was democracy, from the moment Frum agreed to this. Heck, from the moment whatever shitposting outfit decided to host this thing.
Treating fascists as if they deserve debate rather than scorn and frontal opposition is how toeholds form. Gaaah.
Platonailedit
@chris:
Given crowd reaction thru the night, that seems an impossible result. But there ya go
rrriiiight.
Immanentize
@Marcopolo:
I think this is exactly my point and you agree — they are all trying to figure it out, but none have and none pretend they have in any predictive fashion. Not lazy, math.
tobie
@OzarkHillbilly: @Spanky: Thanks for the support! I know Nancy Pelosi has said to all D candidates this season, “Just win, baby.” She knows what’s at stake and is fighting for what’s right, even if that means taking a few knocks herself. She’s a better person than me, that’s for sure. I ❤️Nancy. Hats off to the candidate, too, for taking the time to call me.
Walker
@chris:
They just issued a correction. Those numbers were wrong. There was no change in percentages post debate. The numbers they displayed for post-debate were actually for a completely different question.
chris
@Raoul:
The Munk Debate was started by Peter Munk’s charitable foundation. He died last spring but I imagine he’s smiling today in whatever hell he believed in.
Gelfling 545
@OzarkHillbilly: Which might mean something if they actually thought or prayed.
chris
@Walker: Huh, maybe there is a god. Link please.
Gelfling 545
@geg6: Sometimes cats just decide where they want to live and move in. I acquired 2 cat companions in that way over the years.
Marcopolo
@Immanentize: Nope. Disagree. Go look through Nate Cohn’s twitter feed. They are using the maths to try to figure stuff out. But what is happening in this midterm appears to have no historical precedent which is what we humans normally base our forward looking projections on. As to a reluctance to push a pro D narrative, I think these guys are just looking at the numbers and they want to make the best prediction possible. Virtually all of them have said they think the Ds take the House & the Rs hold the Senate (some caveating on this more than anything else) and some add that there will be a number of D gov pickups but there is a lot of caveating due to what happened in 2016, because they understand statistics a lot better than I do, and because we are in uncharted water. Remember, about 100 House seats are in play–that is a ridiculously high number and there are quite a few with little or no polling.
Really off to canvass now.
Immanentize
@Marcopolo:
Adding —
If I had the time, I could pull out all the posts and comments from 2016 that absolutely proved! Hillary was a slam dunk because of early voting trends.
Just trying to keep it real.
(Compared to what?)
ETA. Remember how Sam Want had the real math? This is like the current surveillance state situation. We are really little better at preventing crimes than we were 50 years ago, but we sure can solve just about any crime in hindsight. The early voting numbers will tell us a lot after the final viti g numbers are in.
Walker
@chris:
Here you go.
https://mobile.twitter.com/rudyardg/status/1058707774773846016
Miss Bianca
@tobie: Oh? And how did he “explain” slamming Pelosi? He really thinks that’s a winning gambit. I mean, yeah, he’ll get some grudging kudos from me for bothering to justify himself to a voter, but I still think that whiff of misogyny, and pandering to misogyny, stinks to high heaven no matter what his explanation may be.
Another Scott
@PAM Dirac: Yup. Just about every election since January 2017 has had the Democratic vote percentage up 10-15-20% up from the November 2016 numbers. With all the horrible things that have happened since then, it’s really, really hard to believe that that trend isn’t going to continue on Tuesday.
Whether it is enough to win all the races that we should remains to be seen. But if Democrats turn out, Democrats win. Especially in off-year elections, especially with a record-breakingly unpopular president. The only wild-card, in my mind, is whether the continued war on voters by the GOP will be enough to win close races.
Midterm Seat Loss Averages 37 for Unpopular Presidents.
We can’t take anything for granted, but everything points to a big win for Democrats on Tuesday. I want, and expect, to see Diana-esqe trains/coat-tails across the country as well.
2 days to go!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Platonailedit
@Immanentize:
So, nothing has changed from 2016 to now? Really?
Matt McIrvin
@Raoul: The point of gerrymandering is usually to maximize the number of seats you get from the level of support you have, but that also makes your districts less safe than they would otherwise be, because a large minority of the other party’s voters has been cracked into them. The Republicans haven’t pushed this hard enough to make a lot of their seats all that precarious, but in a real wave election it could have that effect.
Gelfling 545
@MazeDancer: It’s what my daughter calls a crazy cat lady starter pack. They currently have 4.
MoCA Ace
@geg6:
Um Yes (where third = n)
Platonailedit
@Walker:
Thanks. So the original lie got more “likes” & “RT’s” than the factual correction? Talk about ratfuckery.
Gelfling 545
@Matt McIrvin: Oh for the love of heaven, that is pessimism of a clinical type.
bemused
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism:
I can’t help but think of “they just let you do it” grabass in the WH.
Tenar Arha
@chris: Because if you agree to argue about your rights & your right to exist, you’ve already lost. Maybe this will teach Frum that giving a platform to fascism is a mistake, no matter what century.
ETA even the apparent mistake about the figures still doesn’t change my mind. There’s too much research about Holocaust denialism that shows it’s worse to give the people who argue against its existence a platform to cloud the truth, than arguing.
Immanentize
@Platonailedit:
Things have changed. Certainly for the better for Democrats. But none of us know how much or precisely where. That’s all.
ETA. One thing that has certainly changed is that there are a lot more serious voter suppression efforts now than in 2016.
OzarkHillbilly
@tobie: And as Spanky said, good on you for speaking up.
chris
@Walker: Thanks. What a shitshow.
schrodingers_cat
@Platonailedit: @Ken: It is always dark and cloudy in Matt McIrvin’s world for the Ds.@Matt McIrvin: Your logic makes little sense to me.
tobie
@Miss Bianca: I only got the phone message in which he explained his position on guns and how he thought one could start a conversation in an R +15 district on the subject. I didn’t actually talk to him in person so I couldn’t tell him why I felt the attack on Pelosi was unnecessary and unfair.
Once this election is over, we’re going to have to have a long conversation about sexism in general and on the left. The attacks on Nancy have been gratuitous and, frankly, unreal given her legislative accomplishments. I think she wants one final term as Speaker before passing the baton to a younger generation. I hope she gets it. We need her experience and determination.
schrodingers_cat
@tobie: I am glad you spoke up.
Tenar Arha
@Tenar Arha: Addendum: what I mean is there’s plenty of evidence from other fields that shows giving someone like Bannon a platform is counterproductive. Arguing against something that is being subjected to denialism often leads to the spread of that denialism, & I believe arguing against an ideology like fascism, basically giving it equal time, can lead to spreading that ideology.
Raoul
@chris: I had no idea before 30 seconds ago who Peter Monk was. “He was involved in a number of high-profile business ventures including … Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold-mining corporation.”
Well, who could have imagined that he’d posthumously help normalize fascism. Huh.
Kristine
@NotMax: Wow. Just wow.
OzarkHillbilly
Camila Savioll Mejia, aged four, refuses to walk any farther. She and her mother are among thousands of migrants walking north to the US border. (picture)
I don’t know about you guys, but I just about wet my pants looking at her. //
GregB
NH’s Secretary or State is predicting a record turnout. The Republican Governor’s Association is reportedly rushing money to Republican Gov. Sununu because polling is getting tight.
Hold steady and get out the vote.
Raoul
Related to the Bannon-Frum fiasco:
MazeDancer
@rikyrah:
Real numbers. From NBC News. Broadcast across America.
Stunning.
OzarkHillbilly
@Raoul: They didn’t ignore it so much as shut up when they were told to: Inside the DHS: Former Top Analyst Says Agency Bowed to Political Pressure
tobie
@GregB: I’m assuming Sununu is a legacy politician (i.e., someone following in his father’s footsteps).
@Raoul: The Southern Poverty Law Center sounded the alarm about this in 2009 or 2010. I guess this is exhibit n to whatever power of law enforcement ignoring the input of groups they perceive as dirty hippies.
Raoul
@OzarkHillbilly: Well, yes. I mean, all the way back to McVeigh, we’ve had a massive disinformation effort on the right. “Lone wolves” and all that shit.
chris
@Tenar Arha: Oh I’m all about the deplatforming! We need to beat them back to their mimeograph days.
J R in WV
@Immanentize:
I’m not sure there were not as many voter suppression efforts in 2016, and that we were less aware of them. I suspect court cases may have put a few suppression efforts down since ’16, actually.
But I’m forcing myself to believe that the surge in early voting is a DEM surge, and that many Republicans in the secrecy of the voting booths will actually vote for many Dems instead of the lazy perv Rs. If we’re wrong, OK. I’m also pretty tempted to avoid election night coverage on TV and the web, to read fiction and drink champagne as if we had won a 2/3rds majority in both houses until all the votes have been tabulated in all the states.
Personally, I think network prognostication on winners and losers in the election without actual final voter tabulations is ethically wrong, it isn’t news, it’s fortune telling, and on something as important as elections, I’m not sure fortune telling should be allowed. Reporting actual completed voter tabulations, that’s news reporting!
chris
@Raoul: Yup. I’d guess he was friends with the Kochs and not with Soros.
GregB
@tobie:
Yes, his father was a Governor who was a brash and horrible loudmouth hatchet party apparatchik. He got shitcanned from Poppy Bush’s admin. His brother was a Senator in the GW Bush era, not a hacky loudmouth like Dad. This Sununu has governed mostly as a moderate GOP-er but he may be getting swamped in the Trump cesspool after avoiding that most of the election.
I expect the Dems to hold both Congressional seats and retake the state House and Senate. Sununu may slip under the wire for the win but that he has to now be a money sink for the GOP is a good sign.
raven
@Immanentize: Yea, I’ve been working on a car, now wall to wall pigskin.
cynthia ackerman
Taking encouragement from stats is fine, but, as many have pointed out, there are no great models behind those stats in this election. In my district (OR2), Nate Silver is not factoring Dems’ first-ever GOTV push, for instance, and I know firsthand that this push is on target.
If you’re not already doing so and have time for it, find a key race and help GOTV, even if (especially if) its stats are encouraging.
bemused
@Platonailedit:
Wow, love it. I hope “are you afraid to lose to a girl” really burned him.
chris
Some pics and video in this thread from last night. good on ya, Toronto!
Steve in the ATL
@raven: bust day here too at the lake. Just wrapped up a round of golf, now checking on the ribs and getting ready for some very important football viewing.
Go Dawgs!
O. Felix Culpa
@tobie:
QFT. Thank you for speaking up.
Platonailedit
debbie
@tobie:
Agreed, but I think it’s more about pandering and whoring out for votes than misogyny.
Platonailedit
The left better wake the fuck up at least now.
PST
I have never received an intelligent answer to the question, “What’s wrong with Nancy Pelosi?” From republicans, it’s either, “Oh, she’s just awful” or some drivel about liberal San Francisco values picked up from the cookie-cutter commercials they hear. I kind of understand the opportunism of democrats in republican districts who go along with this crap as long as they shape up after the election. The lefties I have less patience with, since Nancy is about as progressive as any consensus leader is likely to be, and way more effective.
Raoul
@Platonailedit: That’s great!
I flew Delta MSP-Rome a few years ago, and splurged because of a e-checkin ad for business class for $700 extra (yes, a lot, but a fraction of retail and made the first few days of vacay much more enjoyable).
Anyway, the Captain came and ‘briefed’ the front cabin about the flightplan. I loved that it was a woman in charge, and she sort of reminded me of Capt. Janeway. The two other pilots were men (3 rotate/nap on a longhaul), but I really appreciated that DL — or maybe former Northwest in this case? — had started hiring women pilots long enough ago that a least a few have made their way up the seniority lists to bid for a plum like Rome.
hitchhiker
@HinTN:
I prefer to notice that you canceled him out. Good job!
Yutsano
@J R in WV: I’m going to run the risk of sounding Pollyanna but we’ll know (mostly) by Tuesday night. I think it’s going to be a bloodbath for Republicans. My evidence? The increase in the under 30 vote. That has always been the case that if the Democrats could get that up even a few points the Democrats would win in more places. It looks like it’s surging everywhere. If you’re a Republican, that gas you hitting the Mylanta hard.
opiejeanne
@hitchhiker: Hear! Hear! We spent years canceling out my parents’ votes, our kids canceled out mr opiejeanne’s parents’ votes. That helped turn California blue after a disastrous flirtation with Rs in charge of nearly everything. Bomb throwers, some of them called themselves. The bomb throwers voted NO on everything no matter what the bill was or who proposed it.
Anaheim ended up with one of the worst of those guys as the mayor while we lived there: Curt Pringle. God, what an ass.
patroclus
Latest Texas poll shows Beto tied with Cruz!
JoeyJoeJoe
@Matt McIrvin: particularly when districts are growing rapidly, like in Texas. Districts like TX-24 were drawn precisely to maximize Republican voters, only to see tens of thousands or maybe even over 100k new voters come in, many of whom are Democrats or independents
A Ghost To Most
@Yutsano:
If it is true, and I hope it is, come Wednesday, they will be in full panic mode to do as much damage as possible before January. Plus, the kraken (Russia probe) gets set loose on the same day.
Get some rest, folks.
“Things are gonna get mighty rough
Here in Gomorrah-by-the-Sea”
Shana
@debbie: Probably a dead thread, but keep up the exercises. I had frozen shoulders, both at the same time for no apparent reason, and it took 4+ years for it to completely go away. Much better initially, then minor issues for 3+ years.
Tenar Arha
@chris: Oh, I didn’t mean to imply that you thought that. I meant to convey all the dittos, & more evidence. Anyway…sorry.
WaterGirl
@debit: That deserves to be a haiku! Hoping you or someone will do that and post it here or on a future thread.
Uncle Cosmo
@PAM Dirac: You have to be careful assessing MD voting patterns by party. Outside Baltimore City, Howard County & the DC burbs (Montgomery & Prince Georges) we gots more DINOs than Michael Crichton ever dreamed of in Jurassisgrassic Park. Especially on the Eastern Shore (plus Cecil-the-Seasik-Sea-Serpent Co in the far NE – ETA once & probably still home to the bulk of the state KKK) and the Appalachian counties, those registered Democrats will come out in droves to vote like good Trumpanzees. IOW you’d need to check the figures by county & even then take them with a large chunk of Himalyin’ see-what-did-I-tell-you salt.
J R in WV
@Yutsano:
I think so too, and I’m working hard to maintain that optimism. Also trying not to think it’s a done deal! Can’t wait for Tuesday to roll around, so as to vote.
ETA: My mom started cancelling dad’s R votes out once the Rs became a “Pro-Life” party, she wouldn’t tolerate that in her old age. Wife and I vote together, both straight-ticket Democrats, union members, hard core not R voters!
rikyrah
@Platonailedit: One of the best ads out there.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@waratah: Sounds like fun.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Schlemazel: They’re limiting the storage size and number of pics you can have on their free account. You want to have more than 1000 pics, ya gotta pay for the pro account.
Brachiator
Polls are not prophecy and pundits are not priests attending an oracle. I know that we live in a spoiler culture where we want to always be the first to know, and don’t have the patience to let events unfold. But people need to chill the fuck out.
Vote. Encourage any last minute laggards to get to the polls. If possible, assist in the pushback against voter suppression.
I early voted. I don’t read any more stories about polls. I don’t care about optimistic or pessimistic assessments. We will do what we need to do after the votes have been counted.
I’m making notes about some of the contests I want to follow, such as Katie Porter in California. And of course the gubernatorial races in Georgia and Florida.
Fingers crossed.
opiejeanne
@?BillinGlendaleCA: More than a thousand??? So everyone will have to pay for pro status.
And they raised the rate! $40 a year now. Holy mackerel! I think that was the rate for a two year subscription. I should take my photos down and find another storage method.
Ruckus
@OzarkHillbilly:
The only thing republicans will spend is thoughts and prayers. And because they really don’t mean it and never do either, it costs them nothing.
That’s the perfect price for cheap, selfish fucks
Ruckus
@OzarkHillbilly:
Been through a 6 month round of PT, surgery, a 6 month round of PT for mine. That was 15-16 yrs ago. Now both shoulders have lots of clicking, like bone spurs, when I do extended arm movements. Which of course I have to do at work occasionally.
This repetitive physical work crap, what’s that all about? Humans have brains, aren’t we supposed to use those instead of wearing out the bodies?
Ruckus
@tobie:
I’ve found that if a politician tells you who he/she is in an ad, that’s probably who they are. A new person running away from the heart of their party, to me means only 2 possibilities. First they really aren’t a member of the party. Or they are so far further into the party (not left – way, way left etc) that they will get nothing done because they don’t actually believe in the party whose name they have taken. Either way it’s difficult for me to see them as a viable candidate. Now in a situation such as we have and you have two choices, this guy or a republican, go with this guy. He may be marginalized, but not a repub vote, and that’s good. He may recognize when to cut his loses and go with the party and he may move the party to the left a bit, which may not be a bad thing.
What I’m saying is a party is the sum of it’s parts. A candidate who thinks that everyone has to be left of Mao isn’t going to be worth a barrel of spit in congress because he really has no idea what a congressperon is, a representative of the people. But is still better than a republican.
debit
@WaterGirl: Not a poet, but I can count. Let’s see.
When it’s cold outside
A cat appears. I say “Hi.”
The cat says “I’m home.”
or
Winter’s cold bring cats
I tell them to go home but
They already are
or
Cold cats know the way
to the place where they always
open the door home
WaterGirl
@debit: My favorite: