Actual footage of me leaving the house for work.#MondayMotivation pic.twitter.com/2pwGkiwfys
— Paul Bronks (@BoringEnormous) November 5, 2018
Some tidbits that might help, a bit…
NBC NEWS: as of Nov. 4th, early vote total nationwide is 34,789,998
The total early vote in 2014 was 21,218,015.
— Michael Del Moro (@MikeDelMoro) November 4, 2018
28 states + DC surpassed their 2014 total #earlyvote:
AZ, DC, DE, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, KS, LA, MA, ME, MD, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NJ, NM, OK, SC, TN, VA, WI, and WV
2 states surpassed their 2014 total vote (early + Election Day):
NV and TX
— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 4, 2018
If Democrats hold the line in the Senate this map will tell you why. https://t.co/I3TAII9i4O
— Zeddy (@Zeddary) November 2, 2018
Democrats lead by 8.3 percentage points in our generic ballot average, a dramatic reversal from 10 days ago when they led by 8.2 percentage points. https://t.co/nSPeKmDTNc
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2018
Net gain of 64 seats in the House.
Net gain of 1 in the Senate (meaning Pence spends a lot of time casting votes)
We win nearly all the big gov races—FL, IL, OH, MI, WI, IA , CO, etc—except Texas.
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) November 5, 2018
satby
Leaving early voting yesterday after waiting two hours on Sunday evening, and judging by the assembled crowd waiting, I have allowed the tiniest sliver of hope to enter my brain.
Schlemazel
In these days what does “public safety” even mean?
Schlemazel
@satby:
I am allowing that we may finally be rid of Eric Paulson, a seat the GOP has held since the 50s. Jason Lewis the evil radio clow that replaces a corrupt Republican is gone also.
The dark spot is we are going to turn the State AG job over to a man who believes religion IS the state, bullied a gay classmate to a suicide attempt and has stated clearing he intends to fire any Democrat in the AGs office. The co-chair of the DNC made that possibe
OzarkHillbilly
Nice shade you’ve thrown there, Nate.
OzarkHillbilly
@Schlemazel: It means “How many more black/brown people can we lock up?”
satby
@Schlemazel: well, that sucks but his actions as stated won’t hold up in court. So the most egregious can be thwarted, but people shouldn’t have to sue to keep him in line.
Edited for typo, which is my surly Kindle’s way of letting me know I’m in for a difficult morning.
satby
@OzarkHillbilly: yep. Scary, scary brown people.
rikyrah
Good Morning,Everyone ???
satby
@rikyrah: Good morning rikyrah ?
OzarkHillbilly
“If my actions mean anything, love means everything.”
– Ari Mahler, the Jewish nurse who helped treat Robert Bowers
OzarkHillbilly
@rikyrah: Blech.
Schlemazel
@OzarkHillbilly:
I figured but I guess we have been blessed to not see those here. Some group has run a few anti-immigration ads aimed at Ellison but not in the metro area mostly out state.
John S.
It took me 90 minutes to vote early yesterday in Parkland, FL. As would be expected at a location down the road from Stoneman Douglas HS, there were a lot of young people wearing MSD Strong shirts out to vote. I suspect many of them are politically woke following the mass shooting here earlier in the year.
Other highlights include the nice, white Republican lady who offered me a copy of the GOP way to vote – and then tried to tell me I couldn’t vote because I had a mail-in ballot with me which I informed her was already filled out with the exact opposite of whatever she was peddling. I’m sure she had no idea that they can cancel your mail-in ballot and let you vote in person (which is exactly what I did).
I also enjoyed the two Israeli men walking to get in line and speaking Hebrew being loudly informed by an older white gentleman that immigrants are not allowed to vote. That went over like gang-busters with a crowd of folks with a lot of immigrants.
I’ve voted in every election in FL since I came if voting age in 1996, and I’ve never seen anything like this before. I suspect (and hope) it will not end well for the MAGAts.
Jeffro
See that dark blue “anti-Trumpov” cluster up in northern Virginia? That’s called “goodbye fake ‘moderate’ Barbara Comstock”! Good riddance and hey if you could take Dave Brat and Denver Riggleman with you, that’d be awesome, thanks.
Schlemazel
@satby:
Thats a maybe but we know there will be no support for any actions other AGs take against hair furor and his minions in the GOP. There will be multiple attempts to deny rights to minorities, that LGBTQ people will get no protection. There will be a lot of damage done by an unhinged wingnut. It didn’t have to be this way. The State DFL nominated a quality guy. The GOP has spent a lot of money outstate trying to tie the guy running for Governor to the black, Muslim guy running for AG & it remains to be seen if that will work, polls show him winning but I am not confident. MN CD 4 & 5 af Minneapolis & St. Paul. Ellison will carry those & lose the other 6. The difference will be how large the margins are. FOr Ellison his wins in 4 & 5 are not going to be larger than his loses out state. Walz appear to be so far.
Schlemazel
Charlie Daniel is the cartoonist for the Knoxville paper. His cartoon today is Dump standing on a ballot
“Last night I saw upon the ballot a little mandate that was not there, it was not there again today but I am voting anyway”
paradox
I’m voting tomorrow after work like I always do. It’s going to be a long 36 hours.
OzarkHillbilly
“The 4-4 Seahawks may not be 100% all-in on their coordinators, but their team choreographers are top notch.”
– Hunter Felt, Guardian sports writer
Quinerly
@John S.: thanks for this post. Have a nice day.
Quinerly
@Schlemazel: ?
HAL
Texas governor is up again? I feel like they have an election every 2 years for some reason.
OzarkHillbilly
I’m looking at these comments of waiting an hour and a half to 2 hrs to early vote. Tomorrow morning the wife and I will drive 12 miles to the our little volunteer fire station where it will take less time to vote than it did to get there.
Something wrong with this picture.
Immanentize
@OzarkHillbilly:
I keep forgetting, are you white??
It helps with voting times doncha know.
Meanwhile, I saw the note about Estwing. Thanks! I spent a good part of this weekend taking out 100+ year old sink plumbing in the first floor bathroom to finally replace all the dripping. Brass plumbing. Of course the trap is un-re-usable. And is a shape not found in nature….
Schlemazel
@Quinerly:
Yes?
Schlemazel
@OzarkHillbilly:
I know you live in a rural area but that is so wrong. At some point we as a nation are going to have to agree to do better
OzarkHillbilly
@Immanentize: It is ridiculous. There are precincts in STL where people routinely have to stand in line for 4 hours minimum. And we wonder why some people never vote. Republicans don’t wonder why some people never vote.
debbie
Take a look at the screen shot accompanying this tweet. It needs to be loudly and roundly mocked.
satby
Oh dear, I upset someone in the earlier thread.
Darn.
Quinerly
@Schlemazel: just loved the cartoon. Hate to type on the smarty pants phone.
SFAW
@OzarkHillbilly:
It’ll be worse when you realize that you’re in Kansas, and trying to vote in the worng state/country. Driving 12 hours to commit voter fraud, only to get turned away! Amateur.
SFAW
@OzarkHillbilly:
Feature, not bug, for them. That is, as long as it’s SOME people who aren’t voting. Or casting three-fifths of a vote, I guess.
Betty Cracker
@John S.: That sounds like a change election to me! I’m feeling optimistic about Florida. I think it’s likely that Gillum and Nelson will both win and that some House Republicans in the suburbs get bounced. If so, it’ll be fantastic to see Rick Scott go bye-bye.
OzarkHillbilly
Headline at the Guardian: Will Mitt Romney be a thorn in Trump’s side if he wins Utah Senate race?
You gotta be fucking kidding me.
Platonailedit
If Tuesday goes south, pun not intended, for the dems, the blue states should seriously think of seceding, fuck the red ststes.
Gin & Tonic
@satby: That asshole is back?
JAFD
Good morn, jackals,
Sent in absentee
Platonailedit
@debbie:
Don’t get it. It looks like a snark.
OzarkHillbilly
@satby: What, again???
SFAW
@satby:
Do we need to get efgoldman here to respond for you? Or can/did you deliver a “Fuckem” without his help?
satby
@Gin & Tonic: evidently. And slipped up and wrote a coherent sentence. So he can, he just ain’t gonna.
Spelling and grammar are not the boss of him.
waratah
Good morning. Someone was not doing the right advertising in Texas. That pink should be the same color green for healthcare.
satby
@SFAW: I think I got it.
debbie
@Platonailedit:
Just as well, but I didn’t get that from reading the comments.
satby
@JAFD: how are you JAFD? I’ve been thinking of you and hoping recovery is going well.
Betty Cracker
@OzarkHillbilly: Even The Guardian! Good lord, why are the Beltway yappy-dogs so damned eager to see Republican defiance where it doesn’t exist — even in a man who rolled over and piddled on his own belly at Trump’s bidding in front of the whole planet! — and yet so damned determined to demonize Democrats who actually are thorns in Trump’s side? It’s a mystery.
Elizabelle
Happy morning of Victory Eve, jackals. May we prevail. We have worked it.
Pouring in Richmond, VA area. Forecast to clear by lunchtime; then just cloudy and cool. Rain forecast tomorrow morning too (prime voting choice for those canvassed yesterday), and then just cloudy with the occasional T storm.
All the more reason to vote early, if one is able to do so. I don’t think our voters are going to let a little precipitation stop them, though.
satby
@Betty Cracker: my British friends don’t consider The Guardian all that liberal of a source, it’s just that US reporting is so poor that we do.
Immanentize
@Platonailedit:
Today it’s succession?
Yesterday it was “early voting proves blue winning it all.”
Go calmly.
SFAW
@satby:
Is that “poleaxedbycluelessness” about whom you’re speaking? His incoherent/too-cute-by-half writing style is what I’m assuming you’re referring to.
SFAW
@satby:
You sure? ‘Cause I’m feeling the need to mansplain something, and it doesn’t work on Ozark.
Anyway: nice job.
And, in case I missed it: what have you decided re: the asshole office manager who apparently can’t tell apart different days ending in “y”?
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@satby:
Happy Election Eve, jackals. In cooperation the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights, the firm where I work is giving us pro bono credit for poll monitoring. So I’ll get billable credit for something I was going to do anyway.
PAM Dirac
I voted early which frees me to sign up for sign waving at the polls tomorrow. To pass the time I’ve been playing with numbers. I think there is a very good chance that Jealous will beat Hogan for the MD governor. In 2014 the Dems had a ~27K vote lead in early voting. I think this year it is ~175K. I think Hogan needs weak election day turnout from Dems and a LOT more Dems to vote for him than 2014. Neither is impossible, but I don’t think either is likely. I think the number to watch is the sum of Baltimore County plus Montgomery County. In 2014 the early vote total for these two was +12K Dem. Election day, absentee, etc pretty much were even and the final diff was +13K Dem. If it is about the same this year, Hogan wins. If it is some thing like +100K Dem, I think Jealous wins. Turnout in Prince George’s and Baltimore City is also important. It was well under 50% in 2014 and if it gets to 55% that is a LOT of Dem votes.
OzarkHillbilly
Lahore, Pakistan
Vendors carry candy floss
An absolutely stunning photograph.
rikyrah
@Quinerly:
Morning to Poco and the tribe ??
cain
@John S.:
It just kills me when I hear y’all report out how long you waited at the polls. Living in a vote by mail state, I’ve never had to do that. Nobody should have to wait out in the elements for two hours… It’s just madness. I got my citizenship just prior to moving to Oregon and have never voted anyway else. Even if I voted on election day it was just a car drive to the library and dropping it off like I was dropping off mail. I just think this method is so much superior and gives voters a chance to contemplate who they vote for and what bills to vote for and seeing all sides. We turn into smarter voters.
satby
@SFAW: oh, I came back too late to that thread, but I pointed out I had told her two different days of availability and she changed it. She says me there in a Wednesday is better for her anyway.
Her 74 (?) birthday is coming up, and though she’s in great shape for 74ish, I was pretty sure I was noticing a bit of cognitive decline last year. So I am going to attribute this one to memory, not maliciousness.
cain
@OzarkHillbilly:
Ease of vote is something Democrats need to pick up swiftly. If we ever get all 2 branches, we need to make a national vote by mail and spread the love of voting across the country. Especially the damn South. The liberal south needs to rise.
JMG
Back from New York City late last night. My son and his girlfriend have a very nice apartment, and it is interesting seeing two people who have prized their independence more than just about anything into their 30s work at the co-habitation thing. Only political note of note: No TV ads for the New York races, none. One lonely ad for Conn. governor, an attack ad on Lamont. Incessant TV advertising for the NJ Senate race, none positive on either side. Today we start prepping the family/TV for the replacement of ancient carpeting by laminate flooring. Guy comes next Monday. We must remove all furniture by then. It’ll keep my mind off the elections today.
hueyplong
@OzarkHillbilly: Well, someone has to take on the Ted Cruz role.
Betty Cracker
@PAM Dirac: That’s good to know. From all that I’ve read, I had assumed (from afar!) that Hogan would win handily. I’m not particularly a fan of Jealous, but any Democrat is better than any Republican.
hueyplong
@Elizabelle: Hoping for good news from you about Brat tomorrow.
Elizabelle
@OzarkHillbilly: That is spectacular.
cain
@OzarkHillbilly:
Is it on purpose it looks like a lotus?
A Ghost To Most
@OzarkHillbilly: I walked out to the mailbox to get our ballots, we filled them in, and I walked them back out to the mailbox.
Demand mail-in voting.
TS (the original)
@OzarkHillbilly:
Nancy Pelosi will be a thorn in Trump’s side when she is Speaker of the House. Shame the media doesn’t discuss that topic.
Immanentize
Alternative Fax. Hello!!! Long time no read! I hope all is well.
[Your link captured your reply button]
shepraick
From twitter world, this sad but true politics for at least the next 14 years, that we will be wrestling a Republican Party transformed into the Trumpist White Nationalist Party. None of its current coalition is going break off so that it will continue to have a hard 42% of the electorate for the foreseeable future. (The massive numbers of non-college educated white males who have drifted into misogyny and racism the last 10 years is astounding. According to NBC/Marist Trump has a +34 preference among non-college educated white males.)
Party loyal retirees will be dying out, so there is that hope.
wideofthepost
@wideofthepost
Nov 3
Replying to @OsitaNwanevu
I don’t get who in the GOP coalition is supposed to see the light.
–reactionary billionaires
–evangelicals
–hardcore white nationalists
–corporate hacks
–party loyal retirees
They’re all going to double down on fascist themes to protect their own interests.
4 replies 12 retweets 84 likes
wideofthepost
@wideofthepost
Nov 3
The limited number of gettable/moveable voters in the broader Trump-GOP coalition (older rust belt union guys, farmers, normies who didn’t take Trump literally, outsider “change” voters) aren’t going to be wooed by Beltway neoliberal conservatism. Trump deviating brought them in.
JAFD
Hello again,
Feeling better and stronger.
Looking forward to βeing out of University Hosp in day or two
Elizabelle
@JAFD: All the best to you. Heal!
Elizabelle
@hueyplong: Don’t we all?!
satby
@SFAW: yes.
SFAW
@satby:
For some reason, I had it in my teeny-tiny head that she was relatively young, so I attributed her Friday-thing to being a jerk. Your surmisement makes more sense.
Now I feel guilty for assuming the worst about her.
PAM Dirac
@Betty Cracker: Doesn’t seem to be much attention, but it’s not like there aren’t plenty of other races that are far more interesting. I think the last poll was 4 or 5 weeks ago and who knows what kind of turnout model they used, but the early voting was radically different than 2014 and I certainly wouldn’t want to bet that the election day turnout will look like 2014. I’ve heard Jealous speak a couple of times and I don’t have the reservations others seem to have about him. If he wins I suspect he will turn out to be a far better governor than a candidate.
satby
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: yay you! Getting billable hours is icing!
shepraick
@PAM Dirac: Unfortunately, Hogan, unlike Ehrlich has portrayed himself (and at times has acted) as a “moderate” and with good economic times has kept taxes down with some tax cuts. Democrats I have found hate taxes as much as Republicans, and Hogan, like Baker in Massachusetts, goes out of his way to publicly criticize Trump. And the fact that Jealous and Baltimore hate Hogan is enough for the Red meat parts of Maryland. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/in-marylands-trump-country-gop-base-still-loves-larry-hogan/2018/09/28/8fcb3c9a-c037-11e8-be77-516336a26305_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.92fe090f9407
OzarkHillbilly
Another suicide vest wearing ebola infected jihadist preparing to storm our border
Be afraid, be very afraid.
JAFD
Fortunately, had sent in my absentee ballet before this mess, so didn’t have to worry
satby
@OzarkHillbilly: it is, and so are the marigolds harvested and Diwali ones. Thanks for sharing!
SFAW
@OzarkHillbilly:
I am. I’m thinking that the 15,000 troops actually needs to be 150,000. Sort of like the last scene from Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, except with Newman and Redford throwing rocks.
ETA: I originally had it as 1,500,000, but I thought that was a bit of overkill.
OzarkHillbilly
@cain: I’m sure it’s not an accident.
@satby: That bright bright pink against the very drab surroundings.
satby
@JAFD: good, you can concentrate on healing! I hope you get to go home soon. Will you have help at home? If not, ask the hospital or your doctor to arrange some assistance with home health services until you’re better.
JAFD
Held my nose, voted for Sen Menendez
Composing these on smartphone screen, so get one thot written and on way
satby
@SFAW: it’s a she? Color me surprised, because that immediate turn to hostility when called on the act seemed more like a guy thing.
Edited to add, missed the Friday thing you’re referring to. Now going to look ?
NotMax
Is Dolt 45 even registered?
If so, will he forget to vote? (Odds 50-50 on that, methinks.)
satby
@NotMax: you’ve forgotten this picture?
John S.
@cain:
I usually vote by mail, except that Florida has this nasty habit of losing ballots when it’s a close election. Living in a red state has its disadvantages.
Aleta
Halloween dancing, Elon James White’s daughter.
OzarkHillbilly
@satby: My ex reacted the same way whenever I irrefutably caught her in a lie.
JAFD
Before getting interrupted for blood pressure check
Thanks to all of you jackals , and everyone, for your thoughts, prayers, etc
John S.
@Betty Cracker:
I’m optimistic about both Gillum and Nelson. I’ve had more than enough of Rick Scott, and the thought of Ron DeSantis makes me want to puke.
SFAW
@satby:
The “she” was referring to the office manager, not “flummoxedbyrealwork.” I have no idea what sex/gender “flummoxed” is (although the writing style indicated male to me).
Sorry for the confusion (since I think I had covered both topics in one comment).
Elizabelle
Didn’t click, but item on “front page” of the FTF NY Times now:
The story won’t load. Anyway, NBC is not your friend. As we knew.
JAFD
@satby: Will probably βe spending a couple of weeks in ‘rehab facility’.
Trying to
JPL
@Elizabelle: I read that they showed the ad during the football game. In good ad news the Bloomberg ad has aired on both CBS and ABC this morning.
tobie
@John S.: Here’s hoping for waves of good news from Florida tomorrow. My folks will be voting for Nelson, Gillum, Shapiro et al in Sarasota on Tuesday. I’m not sure why they insist on voting on election day given their age, but at this point I’ve given up trying to wean them of the habit. Maybe there’s a contingent of elderly lifelong Dems who just love the excitement of casting their ballot on election day.
JPL
@JAFD: Sometimes it’s necessary to vote that way. Thinking good healing thoughts for you.
satby
@SFAW: ah, clearer now.
I don’t want to sound sexist, but yeah, male affect on that writing.
Though OH rightly points out narcissists are equal opportunity ragers.
Elizabelle
Huffpost article on NBC airing the ad. During a primetime football game between the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers.
That Racist Trump Ad CNN Refused To Air? NBC Just Ran It In Prime Time.
Betty Cracker
@shepraick: I’m not as pessimistic. It could go down that way, and there’s no doubt we’ll be dealing with white supremacists assholes for years to come — they have always been with us. Where I part company with that dire view is the percentage of the “hard core” that will remain Trumpian for the next decade and a half or so.
That prediction assumes things stay more or less the same, which they won’t. Look at the astonishing early voting numbers coming in nationwide. Looks like a lot of folks are coming off the sideline. That could change everything. We’ll know more tomorrow night.
Also, I view the “movable/gettable” low-info voters more as a panicky herd of antelope who zig and zag between prides of lions than as committed ideologues unlocked by Trump’s naked racism. There certainly are plenty of folks who came out of the woodwork in response to the white nationalist message, but they’re just as likely to go back to not voting again the minute GOP politicians figure out that’s not a winning message.
And, despite the fact that Trump is in the White House and the GOP controls Congress, it wasn’t a winning message. It was a popular vote loser that required voter suppression, apathy and foreign interference to pull off. It worked under a very specific set of circumstances that aren’t likely to be repeated.
satby
@JAFD: ?
schrodingers_cat
@Elizabelle: They raised him from the dead by airing that shit show, Apprentice. I am pleased to report that I never watched it. All I have seen are clips of the show that Frontline aired before 2016 elections about the candidates.
NotMax
@satby
That was 2016. How extended a disruption of Manhattan will he cause, assuming he can break away from the boob tube long enough to head there Tuesday to vote?
prufrock
@Betty Cracker: I saw Gillum speak at UCF on Saturday. That guy has Denzel Washington levels of charisma.
Elizabelle
@schrodingers_cat: Never watched it either. Never will.
SFAW
@satby:
Sexist.
I agree re: your generalized assessment. On the other hand, for a while before I found out her real name, I thought Digby was a guy, based on the writing style. Maybe I was missing the cues, maybe my “guydar” is/was faulty, etc.
Then again, I also thought Ozark was a guy. [Waves at Ozark, gets ready to duck the inevitable hammer thrown my way.]
tobie
@Elizabelle: I can’t believe they aired that racist, incendiary, dishonest and shameful ad. I don’t do twitter, so I just looked up the telephone number for NBC’s corporate office in New York: 212-664-4444. Here’s a list of NBC’s other offices.
tokyokie
@Elizabelle: Moi aussi. The only bits I ever saw were in the documentary Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work.
PAM Dirac
@shepraick: I think it is true that there are very few D voters who are excited to vote against Hogan, but I also suspect there aren’t many that are excited to reelect him. I just don’t see the huge increase in early voting being driven by a desire to reelect Hogan. I think most of it is driven by the national mood and desire to vote against the Rs. I think most of the surge D voters won’t think much about the governor, but will just vote D. If that happens and the surge is big in Baltimore, PG, and Montgomery, there aren’t enough votes in the hinterlands to offset it.
ETA: I see the date on that article was Sept 28. I think any analysis of the MD election that doesn’t look carefully at the early vote is old news.
Elizabelle
@tobie: I hope NBC (and their other advertisers) get some bad blowback for that.
Megyn Kelly making millions upon millions from them. And this. NBC has a very ugly face behind the Lester Holt and genial Today hosts mask it presents.
Platonailedit
The fix was in from the beginning? We will see.
tobie
@PAM Dirac: @shepraick: Jealous will benefit from the blue wave in the state. There’s no doubt about it in my mind. But it will not be enough to push him over the edge. I’ve been canvassing in two conservative counties for the Democratic Party since the beginning of September and have encountered more than one ticket splitter. These are generally older Democrats, who can’t bring themselves to vote for Jealous. For every other Democratic group I’ve found that they’re ginned up to vote the entire D slate. Republicans are making a heavy push to replace Dem AG Brian Frosh with a Republican so the emoluments clause case will disappear. I’ll phone bank again today just to make sure Frosh is reelected. That’s actually more important to me than the Hogan-Jealous race at this point.
Mai Naem mobile
Why does Alaska have public safety as their issue? I have no idea but I think of Alaska as a pretty white state except for Native americans.
TS (the original)
@tobie: NBC has a page on their values at your link. They seem to have missed reading them before showing the ad
tobie
@TS (the original): Throw that back at ’em. Make them eat their words! Thanks for drawing my attention to the statement.
Mai Naem mobile
I just figured it out. The public safety issue in Alaska is obviously because of the Palin family residing there.
Quinerly
@rikyrah: waves, tail wags, meows back at you!
geg6
@OzarkHillbilly:
Yup. I’ll be walking next door to the fire station there. I might have a couple of people in front of me. It will take John and I less than ten minutes altogether. That includes the walk there, the short wait (if any at all), actually voting and the walk back home.
Marcopolo
Good morning folks. It was pretty sore yesterday evening, but I have decided my knee is sound enough to do one last door-to-door tomorrow. A night’s sleep (plus a couple of ibuprofen) can still occasionally work when you are 55.
And let’s hope this final Marist poll out of Missouri (the numbers you want are on page 5) that dropped this morning and which apparently gives McCaskill her largest lead for as long as I can remember 50-46 is somewhat close to approximating what happens tomorrow.
Wishing a nice day to everyone out there.
Kay
Repeat the lie and then make the reader click on the link to find out the truth. They reward liars with an easy repeat of the lie and make someone seeking the truth do all the work. They have to get better at this. It calls for a new approach. These are smart people. If they don’t get better at this you would be perfectly justified in questioning their motives or the motives of management. It isn’t good work. It has to adapt. Try something else. Anything else. An error or false start would be preferable to this stubborn insistence on covering this shit exactly the same way.
Cheryl from Maryland
@PAM Dirac: From your mouth to God’s ear. I’ve been working friends to vote for Jealous who voted for Hogan and still spout that “rain tax” nonsense at me. As I keep pointing out to them, do you want a clean bay? You realize O’Malley was governor during the Great Recession? Do you use products on your grass/plants? Do you have a vehicle? If so, that rain ain’t clean when it goes to the sewers because YOU have added chemicals to it.
Marcopolo
@Mai Naem mobile: Honestly, if I still lived in AK (and I have lots of friends who do) I’d mostly be worried about how to fund the government. The electeds up there have been trying to figure out how to fill a multi-billion dollar hole for a few years now. Mostly they have come up with no answers except to plunder the rainy day fund & now probably the Permanent Fund. If they have any sense AK residents will send enough sensible folks Juneau to pass an income tax and elect Alyse Galvin to be their congress critter over the odious Don Young.
tobie
Much to my surprise, FTF NYT has published a nice article about Pelosi who, I learned, is also called the Lady Gaga of American Politics. It’s put a bit of spring in my step, as has some polling good news. Thanks, @Marcopolo, for sharing the report.
Elizabelle
LOL. My AdBlocker was preventing clicking on the NYTimes story about NBC running the anti-immigration ad, although NBC had no trouble accepting the ad, apparently after its news division had been covering the ad’s inaccuracy. (NBC aired a shorter ad that did not repeat the debunked claim that Democrats had let in the murderous illegal immigrant — that actually happened during George W. Bush’s presidency.)
NYTimes: NBC Runs Immigration Trump Ad Deemed Too Racist by CNN
But NBC ran it anyway. During primetime, in the middle of a highly watched Patriots-Packers game.
Elizabelle
@tobie: Glad to see that.
I love Nancy Smash. I hope she will soon be Speaker Pelosi again, a steady hand in perilous times. While Democrats groom her eventual successors.
O. Felix Culpa
@Mai Naem mobile:
Why? Because that dreaded horde of disease-infested, middle-eastern, MS-13 brown people will march right up to AK after storming our southern borders, that’s why. //
SFAW
@geg6:
Maybe you’ll run into Ozark?
SFAW
@O. Felix Culpa:
Damn, that Soros is willing to go all-out to turn it into the Great Brown North.
Elizabelle
@tobie: The LA Times ran a really good article about Nancy Smash in late October. Reporter is Mark Barabak, their politics veteran.
They say terrible things about Nancy Pelosi. Her response: Just win, Democrats
O. Felix Culpa
@SFAW:
Should we tell them that we’re still waiting for our Soros checks? Or maybe you’ve received yours. Me, not so much.
tobie
@Elizabelle: The article mentions that she would have retired if Hillary had won but, as that didn’t happen, she thought she needed to stay in politics to protect the ACA and build a bridge to the next gen of Democratic leaders. I believe that’s how she wants to spend 2018-2020. The attacks on her from the right have been predictable. The ones from the left have been unreal. One day I’d like to write something about how Hillary and Nancy became the punching bags for the right and the left fueled by the two most sexist politicians I’ve experienced in my lifetime. But first there are the midterms…
tobie
@Elizabelle: Thanks for the link! I’ll add this to my bookmark file.
Kraux Pas
It’s astounding how long people are made to wait to vote, especially given the fact that election day is not a holiday and people are expected to work. I hope Ds are thinking of a way to, among the many other reforms we need, push states to have more voting places more equitably distributed. Or give an extra vote for every 30 minutes of waiting.
Or you could do what I do, rely shamelessly on parents for a home in the affluent suburbs. No waiting to vote, EVER!!!
Frankensteinbeck
@shepraick:
…say what now? Is this Purity Pony Bizarro World bullshit, or something else that I didn’t understand?
The Moar You Know
@Kay: I do question their motives. They’ve set up a system that rewards lying and that SERIOUSLY discourages those seeking facts.
Kraux Pas
@Frankensteinbeck: Well, neoliberalism embraces free-market capitalism while regulating its excesses. This is the status-quo position of much of the country, implying this is a conservative (small c) position. The Democrats do seem to embrace this in a lot of ways, though they have been reined in by power-grabbing Republicans and, therefore, haven’t managed to address as many market excesses as they might like.
Or they could be using these terms simply to slag Democrats without context. I suspect this might be the case since the term “Beltway” was appended, clarifying nothing and wrongly suggesting the Washington political establishment is a monolith.
Aleta
Comics, WaPost
By Aimee Pong: These are the women in my life who are counting on my vote this Election Day. Who are you voting for? It is regular men and women like us who will shape history
https://www.thelily.com/these-are-the-women-in-my-life-who-are-counting-on-my-vote-this-election-day-who-are-you-voting-for/?tid=wp_hp_lily_rr
cain
@John S.:
Having a democratic SoS is definitely something we need to start doing across the country if we are going to end Republican domination of state legislation. Making the ballot easily accessible to all is going to be important going forward.
Yarrow
@Kay:
I’ve been at that point for several years. Look at upper management of media companies. Who owns them? Who’s pulling their strings? Not all reporters and journalists are compromised but some are. Those who are need to go. Clean house.
Tenar Arha
@cain: Everyone that’s arguing that vote by mail will fix everything has to consider that it could disenfranchise some people bc of their home situations.
First remember there’s split families where men feel free to do this to their wives & daughters.
Remember those semi-open booths & the Trump men craning to see their wives ballots? What’s ascribed to stupidity is also something some abusers & controlling a-holes do. Anyway, that’s why this whole thread & one of the sub threads off it deserves a reading, but this is the bottom line.
There’s likely no easy way to study how widespread parents voting for their children & husbands voting for their wives, bc it’s likely that even the polling could be tainted. But we should be considering ways to make it easier for these people to vote freely, while also making sure we simplify the process for everyone else.
Please note, I’m not saying don’t make vote by mail widely available nationwide, I’m just saying make sure that there’s multiple alternatives widely available too.
Betty Cracker
@Kay: Margaret Sullivan has an analysis of the midterm coverage here. She thinks it’s marginally better than the “epic fail” of 2016 but admits she’s being generous.
Kraux Pas
@tobie:
I was skeptical about this metaphor before I read the article, but…
…I can get behind that.
cain
@Tenar Arha:
Thanks for providing a different perspective. Yes, it is something definitely needs to be considered. Of course, if the husband does such a thing there is a whole lot of other problems going on in that marriage than just vote stealing. At least, the ballot can be filed out elsewhere instead of at home as long as the wife is able to receive the ballot before the husband shows up. Also consider that in such a relationship the husband can forbade the woman to go vote if there is already dominance.
In any case, you are correct that vote by mail is not a silver bullet for dysfunctional relationships. I have no solutions to that as the problem is much deeper than just voting. But thank you for sensitizing me to this possibility as I had not considered it.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
I (actually) love newspapers. I love nonfiction writing in general. They couldn’t have a better cheerleader but they’re really fucking blowing it with me :)
The Toledo Blade, which I pay for, was parroting Trump on the migrants- they take their cues from the national press. Ohio has one of the smallest populations of immigrants in the country. Trump demonizing of brown people isn’t even that relevant here. WTF, Toledo Blade?
Do your own work.
Elizabelle
@Betty Cracker: The NY Times and the WaPost both fell for the “caravan of browns!” fearmongering. Seriously, how could you not see through that one, immediately. I was especially ashamed for the FTF NYTimes, although it is what they do.
Which is why the Toledo Blade followed their lead, as Kay reports.
Margaret Sullivan is lovely and incisive, but way too generous here.
And NBC shat the bed again last night, running the Trump anti-immigration ad.
SFAW
@O. Felix Culpa:
Why would he send them? He’s Hungarian.
L85NJGT
@OzarkHillbilly:
The line to primary Trump in 2020 starts on Wednesday.
The drop off on Trump approval in Utah is staggering. Running anybody else but Romney would have made that race competitive. But beyond that, Mitt is a lightweight, his biography bears that out, and don’t expect any profiles in courage from the man.
Betty Cracker
@Kay: I thought Sullivan’s take about how Shep Smith’s occasional counter-programming actually helps Fox hang onto its reputation as a news organization was interesting. I hadn’t really considered that angle. I don’t know what the answer is.
Anne Applebaum’s Post column this weekend addressed the issue of disinformation in campaigns, and it was depressing as hell. There are even more shenanigans afoot now than there were in 2016. People, including Congress and the executives of the platforms, know it’s happening but haven’t done jack-shit about it. Why would they? It benefits them, and they have no sense of civic responsibility.
Yarrow
@Elizabelle:
Why them particularly? They’ve shown themselves over and over again to be happy not just to parrot Republican talking points but to promote conservative fever swamp conspiracy theories. They are doing what they do. The bigger surprise is when they don’t do something like that.
Elizabelle
@Betty Cracker: I had a reporter tell me that they don’t rebut some obviously false stories because they know those who believe the stories won’t change their minds.
I suggested there is a duty to print the truth accurately, if only for history. Suspect it’s a problem that begins in the publisher’s suite, though.
Elizabelle
@Yarrow: Good to see you back! Hope your dad is well.
Yeah, the Times is a problem. Gonna do some letter writing after the midterms. To their publisher and executive editor. Like that will help, but maybe it will.
Yarrow
@Betty Cracker: Same way Rachel Maddow is useful to MSNBC to make liberals think the network is more liberal than it is. A lot of the rest of their lineup shows they are much more conservative but hey, Maddow is there.
Elizabelle
@Yarrow: Exactly. The evening programming is the fig leaf.
Morning Joe and daytime is where it’s at.
dww44
@Yarrow: It really is more than Maddow, it’s Ari Melber, Chris Hayes, Lawrence O’Donnell, and Nicole Wallace and Chris Mathews (sometimes)and Joy Reid who walked up to a Stacey Abrams event I was at last Friday.
I recognized her before anyone else around me did. Looked the same as she does on TV, but minus the makeup. I think she was sorta impressed with this hastily put together tour of this majority-minority city south of the ATL as she’s kept mentioning us on her MSNBC shows this weekend. She said she actually hadn’t realized that there were 2 women at the top of the ticket in Georgia. All the speakers here were women except for Lewis. It was a very very upbeat event in the rain.
L85NJGT
@Kraux Pas:
It is the standard troll-bot reply in UK comment sections when Labour voters starts questioning Corbyn’s “leadership”.
Point: He’s a clueless, do-nothing septuagenarian, waiting around for 1970 to return so he can be anointed PM…
Bot-reply: You’re a neoliberal sell-out
Gin & Tonic
@Kay: And yet, one of the best Mexican restaurants I ate at north of the Mason-Dixon line was somewhere in rural NE Ohio. It was a few years back, so I can’t recall where, maybe Mantua? In that area, anyway. Sunday afternoon, futbol on the tube, my son and I maybe the only palefaces in the joint.
Betty Cracker
@Elizabelle: What a pathetic answer from that reporter!
On the broader issue, I really don’t know how to apportion blame for shitty coverage. I suspect it varies by paper.
The Times obviously has poor leadership at the publisher level, but Exec Editor Dean Baquet is a disaster all by himself. And the DC reporters like Haberman, Chozik, etc., are horrid — smarmy book-peddlers who are impressed with their own celebrity. Feh!
yellowdog
@PAM Dirac: I live in Maryland and I’ve talked to too, too, many Democrats who think Hogan ‘isn’t that bad’. I have little hope for Jealous, unfortunately.
Uncle Cosmo
@PAM Dirac: Name something you’d be willing to wager on that, Positron Boy. I’ve been voting in MD since 1972 & active in Democratic Party politics for a fair hunk of those years – & if Jealous comes within 5% of Hogan I will be the most shocked auld phart in the
FreePricey State. Hell, if he gets within even 10% I’ll be pretty shocked. As I said in an earlier thread, we gots more DINOs here than Crichton even dreamed of in Jurassisgrassic Park & they will crawl over their dying grannies & down a street block paved with broken glass to vote against any PoC or woman that don’t have a (R) beside their names.Yarrow
@dww44: I disagree with you about many of the people you mention. I think Chris Hayes is dangerous and liberals would be smart to be skeptical of him and his motives. Nicole Wallace may be doing good work now but she worked for W so I keep a healthy skepticism where she’s concerned. Chris Matthews, well, he’s an entertaining blowhard but unless Tip O’Neil rises from the grave to lead the lunch bucket brigade of white men in hard hats from the factory back to the Dem fold, he’s never going to think the Dems are doing the right thing.
tobie
@L85NJGT: I came across this recently, too. I got an earful about how Bill Clinton and Tony Blair sold out the working class and that’s why blue collar voters don’t identify with the Democratic Party or Labour Party any longer. I think there’s some truth to this but it completely overlooks all those Reagan Democrats in the US and blue-collar, Margaret Thatcher supporters in the UK.
Ruckus
I dropped off my ballot at the Pasadena main library yesterday, the ballot box was pretty well stuffed. And they say they empty it every day. But no line to get to the box, decent walk to the library.
If they do empty the box every day, and it’s full at 3pm then early voting is pretty big, even here in bluest CA. We also have new ballots. Old was a punch card with bubbles to fill out, optical scan. New is large paper, much easier for these shaky hands to fill out. As well in the old system you had to fill in a numbered oval, reading from a booklet. Now everything is on the ballot. Much better, still optical scan with a paper trail.
L85NJGT
@Betty Cracker:
The print industry got hammered by disruptive technology – their cost structures and revenues models are gone, and the market will continue to shrink. There will be some brands that live on in the e-space, but the failing newsprint ecosystem will be terminal to most.
Yarrow
@Betty Cracker: Leadership at the top matters. If the publisher wanted things to be different they could make it known. They apparently don’t. Dean Baquet is also terrible. Just because there’s one bad person at an institution doesn’t mean there aren’t more of them! But if the publisher wasn’t happy with him they’d get rid of him. Apparently he’s doing just fine for them.
The reporters are awful, but again, doing their jobs as instructed by their bosses. Also they’re possibly compromised in their own various ways. Haberman has connections with Trump and Kushner. It’s little wonder she has been chosen as the court stenographer. Since we know Trump only keeps people around him who has dirt on, what does he have on her?
Just like we found out that all those male reporters and pundits who were the most anti-Hillary in 2016 turned out to be assaulting women, it’ll be interesting when we find out the most pro-Trump reporters are the ones who are compromised and are being blackmailed.
Ruckus
@Gin & Tonic:
Used to eat at a Mexican place on the east side of Columbus OH that was as good as any place in SoCal. And better than some places I’ve eaten at in Mexico. Next door was a small Mexican market. There may not be the numbers of non whites in OH that other places have but they are there. This was the place where one of my co workers was going to order lingua and I asked him if he knew what it was. He was raised in Chile, his dad was on the ambassador’s staff. He didn’t know. He didn’t order it.
Uncle Cosmo
@Betty Cracker: See my post at #158 & don’t get your hopes up. MD may be entering a stretch of divided gummint – ReThug governors but D’s everywhere else: In a Democratic gubernatorial primary, the electorate favors any reasonable (i.e., not obviously unqualified) AA candidate (to the point where this year two of them, Jealous & Prince Georges County Executive Rushden Baker, polled nearly 69% of the primary vote, & no other candidate broke 9%). However, outside of Mongomery & Howard Counties & the odd enclave, white-majority counties are crawling with DINOs who reliably vote GOP for statewide races, especially when a PoC (or for that matter a woman) is the Democratic nominee.
In the last 4 MD gubernatorial elections prior to 2018, the Democrats nominated a woman, a white male (twice), and an African-American. The woman (Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, RFK’s daughter) & AA (Anthony Brown, veteran & former Delegate from PG County) were both incumbent Lieutenant Governors – and both lost to Republicans (Robert Ehrlich & Larry Hogan). The white male was the incumbent Mayor of Baltimore City (Martin O’Malley) – who won two terms (curbstomping Ehrlich both times). Make of that what you will.
Brachiator
@Ruckus:
Huh. I new about various early voting locations in Los Angeles county, but didn’t realize you could do a drop-off at places like the Pasadena library.
Gin & Tonic
@Uncle Cosmo:
Since we can’t upvote comments (which is a good thing) I wanted you to know how much I appreciate this.
Uncle Cosmo
@Elizabelle: “Nationalist” Broadcorping Castration. Fuckem.
L85NJGT
@Uncle Cosmo:
They’re just doing what Comcast tells them to do.
Brachiator
@Yarrow:
All i want is good, honest reporting. I don’t much care whether MSNBC is liberal or conservative.
Uncle Cosmo
@Gin & Tonic: My pleasure. As an unfrocked physicist & near-astrophysicist, ich konnte nicht anders. :D
Tenar Arha
@Yarrow: I’ve thought a lot about why I’m angrier at the NYT than just about any other media outlet. And for me it’s because especially after the quality of some of their big investigative reporting these past two years, & it proves they could have been & could be so much better that I become this ?? (That I know it’s their choice to be like they are makes me angrier).
ETA Essentially my disappointment fuels my fury at their bad story, editorial & coverage choices.
PAM Dirac
@Uncle Cosmo:
I don’t know, a bottle of wine? Not real expensive. I’m not so much confident as just wondering where the numbers come from. There is lot of Dems who as you say wouldn’t vote for a woman or POC it hey were paid, but I don’t see any evidence that they make up the majority of Dems. I looked at turnout and votes from 2014. You can’t know how particular people voted by you can find out how many Dems voted and how many votes the Dem got. If every Dem voted Dem the vote would be at least 100% of the turnout. If Dems vote for non-Dems the number will go down. If non-Dems votes for Dems the number will go up. You will not be shocked that one of the lowest numbers in 2014 was Baltimore County, but it was still 66%. Even in the whitest counties, Dems got at least 57% of the Dem turnout. In these counties you also see R vote as a per cent of R turnout in the 130-150% range, no doubt due to the Dem crossover. I don’t see what would cause these numbers to change substantially. At the same time there are three counties that in 2014 captured about 100% of the Dem turnout; Baltimore City, Prince George’s and Montgomery. (Howard County was 95%) The increase in Dem turnout in the 2018 early voting was about 116K. The increase in R voters was about 750. It would take a very dramatic change to have anything other than a >100K vote advantage out of this and probably at least as much on election day if turnout is strong. That’s why I look to the Baltimore County-Montgomery County sum. If BC is piling up Hogan votes as fast MC can pile up Jealous votes, then Hogan should win. It all comes down to turnout and although we know that early vote turnout wasn’t anything like 2014, who knows what election day turnout will be like, especially as the weather is predicted to be bad. I’ll still be out waving.
PAM Dirac
@Gin & Tonic: So do I. I’ll try to get this in before the site bogs down on me again. Took waaay too long to write that last post.
Captain C
@debbie: By my calculations, Putin would have been 10 when this happened. I don’t think the Red Army was that desperate in 1963.
Captain C
@debbie: By my calculations, Putin would have been 10 years old when this happened. I don’t think the Red Army was that desperate in 1963.