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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

How stupid are these people?

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

This chaos was totally avoidable.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

Consistently wrong since 2002

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Cancel the cowardly Times and Post and set up an equivalent monthly donation to ProPublica.

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

Museums are not America’s attic for its racist shit.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

Let me file that under fuck it.

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You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Who knows what tomorrow brings?

Who knows what tomorrow brings?

by DougJ|  November 5, 20186:15 pm| 102 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M.

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Thanks everyone for all the money you gave to Democratic candidates. We raised a total of just over 375K this cycle.

Don’t forget to vote tomorrow!!!!

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Previous Post: « Shhhh!
Next Post: Comic Relief Open Thread: Pwning Yourself in Front of the Whole Internet »

Reader Interactions

102Comments

  1. 1.

    Keith P

    November 5, 2018 at 6:17 pm

    Is it possible to vote from the hospital? Beto’s peeps aren’t being very helpful with my questions via text lol

  2. 2.

    Corner Stone

    November 5, 2018 at 6:21 pm

    From David Brooks to Garth Brooks in one post.

  3. 3.

    Mr Stagger Lee

    November 5, 2018 at 6:25 pm

    Tomorrow I will hit the gym, then make dinner, watch Ozark on Netflix,then hit the sack I will find out Wednesday. Oh BTW will someone supply Cenk Uygur with weed.

  4. 4.

    Comrade Colette Collaboratrice

    November 5, 2018 at 6:25 pm

    I just dropped off my preposterously enormous completed ballot at City Hall here in San Francisco. I’m going to try to ignore politics completely for the next 30 hours.

    But I know I’ll fail. For one thing, thanks to the contributions I’ve made through Doug!’s ActBlue links, I’m getting about 200 emails a day. ‘S okay. Not long to go now. I’m feeling cautiously hopeful.

  5. 5.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 5, 2018 at 6:26 pm

    Go team blue!

  6. 6.

    Yarrow

    November 5, 2018 at 6:26 pm

    @Keith P: Here is a website called Patient Voting that has info on how to vote if you’re in the hospital. Supposed to have info on all 50 states.

  7. 7.

    B.B.A.

    November 5, 2018 at 6:27 pm

    Only 36 hours until the 2020 primaries begin!

  8. 8.

    JPL

    November 5, 2018 at 6:27 pm

    @Keith P: @Yarrow: I hope that provides you answers.
    Keith I hope you are on the mend.

  9. 9.

    dmsilev

    November 5, 2018 at 6:28 pm

    How many people was that $375K split across? Several hundred at a bare minimum, I’d imagine.

    28.5 hours until polls close on the West Coast…

  10. 10.

    Roger Moore

    November 5, 2018 at 6:29 pm

    If the Democrats do spectacularly well this election, I expect Act Blue to get a ton of credit. The Democrats have done far better than the Republicans at raising money from small donors, and Act Blue has a lot to do with it. I expect the Republicans to try to copy it.

  11. 11.

    JPL

    November 5, 2018 at 6:29 pm

    @B.B.A.: not cute.

  12. 12.

    eemom

    November 5, 2018 at 6:30 pm

    ?Love lifts us up where we belong?

    Big hit my senior year in HS.

  13. 13.

    ruemara

    November 5, 2018 at 6:31 pm

    My interns have made me proud by casting their early or overseas ballots already. I love my girls. I’m harassing nagging reminding the last few about voting tomorrow.

    @Mr Stagger Lee: Only if that weed is jimson.

  14. 14.

    dmsilev

    November 5, 2018 at 6:32 pm

    @Roger Moore: Act Blue is great. I’ve always made a point of including a ‘tip’ for them every time I succumb to a candidate ask; they’re work is important and deserves support.

    There was at one point something called I think RightRoots or similar that was a replication attempt, but it was a miserable failure. Don’t remember the details.

  15. 15.

    geg6

    November 5, 2018 at 6:34 pm

    Such a nervous wreck I am!

    But no one can say that Balloon Juicers didn’t lay it all out there to win. Proud of us and you, Doug.

    I will be watching starting at 9pm. I can’t NOT watch but I don’t have to start just as the polls close. I’m pretty confident in PA. Come Wednesday, our governor and senior senator will be re-elected. We’ll have a new Lt. Governor who is an absolute original. Conor Lamb will be my new Representative. I am only nervous about the statehouse races. We really need some Dem gains there!

  16. 16.

    david

    November 5, 2018 at 6:34 pm

    @B.B.A.: Send your $20.20 NOW!!!

  17. 17.

    jharp

    November 5, 2018 at 6:34 pm

    Someone is going to look pretty out of touch on Wednesday morning.

    2018 Generic Congressional Vote – CNN – Democrats 55, Republicans 42 – Democrats +13

    2018 Generic Congressional Vote – Rasmussen Reports – Democrats 45, Republicans 46 – Republicans +1

  18. 18.

    dmsilev

    November 5, 2018 at 6:36 pm

    @jharp: Rasmussen was the source of the poll which Trump boasted showed him having 40% approval…

    …among African Americans.

  19. 19.

    cmorenc

    November 5, 2018 at 6:36 pm

    Already voted here in Raleigh, NC.

    BTW: it occurred to me that, as joyful as we all will be if Stacy Abrams and Gillum win the respective governorships of Georgia and Florida – the unbounded joy back on election night 2008 of experiencing Obama become the first black (or minority) to win the Presidency, and the accompanying thought that *finally* his victory proved this country had moved past its troubled racial past – proved so very wrong so very soon. Instead, it soon provoked the latent racism to emerge among a too-substantial residual portion of the electorate, needing only an evil demagogue like Trump to bring it out in to full, open flower – and big-money big-business wing of the GOP and hard-core talibangelical Christian wings proved all too willing to take cynical advantage of the residual racists, especially after Trump came along to make that appeal brazenly open.

    So if Abrams and Gillum win, it’s a big deal worth celebrating for sure, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves yet on assuming demographic and attitudinal change has swept away the reactionary racists from their grip on power and their potential to capture a slim majority in some critical elections.

  20. 20.

    SRW1

    November 5, 2018 at 6:37 pm

    @B.B.A.:

    Only 36 hours until the 2020 primaries begin!

    Thank god, there’s something exiting coming up in these boring times!

  21. 21.

    Baud

    November 5, 2018 at 6:39 pm

    There’s an election tomorrow?

  22. 22.

    FlipYrWhig

    November 5, 2018 at 6:39 pm

    @dmsilev: Rasmussen is such a clown act. And not even just a regular clown act. Yesterday I watched The Blue Angel. When the professor becomes a stupefied, raging, clucking clown… THAT kind of clown act.

  23. 23.

    Mr Stagger Lee

    November 5, 2018 at 6:39 pm

    @B.B.A.: And hopefully the Democrats will concentrate on State Houses as well as the big races.

  24. 24.

    Cheryl Rofer

    November 5, 2018 at 6:40 pm

    I voted two weeks ago. I think I will now clean up the summer birdbaths to keep myself away from the computer. Tomorrow morning I will do grocery shopping and go over to a friend’s house to garner some of his collection of material on Iran that he is downsizing. (Yes, I know!) Then I will try to practice piano the rest of the day, but at some point I will go over to full-time watching.

  25. 25.

    cmorenc

    November 5, 2018 at 6:40 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    If the Democrats do spectacularly well this election, I expect Act Blue to get a ton of credit. The Democrats have done far better than the Republicans at raising money from small donors, and Act Blue has a lot to do with it. I expect the Republicans to try to copy it.

    My only beef with ActBlue (and it’s a huge beef, though not so much I won’t support them or progressive candidates through them) is that your donation (especially any that will be distributed among several candidates) will land you on an unmanageably huge number of candidate email lists. One of my long-time email addresses has been rendered completely useless by this phenomena.

  26. 26.

    Steeplejack

    November 5, 2018 at 6:41 pm

    Already steeling my resolve to head out to vote tomorrow morning. Tactical gear (pants!) prepped and ready. Supposed to be raining here in NoVA, but, silver lining, temperatures up in the mid-60s. I’m going to go about 9:00-9:30, in what I hope will be a lull between the pre-work crowd and the lunchtime crowd. My polling place doesn’t usually have long lines, but all bets are off in this election.

    Then in the late afternoon I’ll head over to Sighthound Hall, where Bro’ Man is having a watch party with food, drink and trenchant political analysis. Think I’m taking my queso dip—better than most restaurants’!—and maybe fixin’s for margaritas. Possibly cava sangría.

    Not making any predictions on the races, although I have my thoughts and prayers.

  27. 27.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    November 5, 2018 at 6:42 pm

    @Baud: Yes, remember to vote early and often.

  28. 28.

    Redshift

    November 5, 2018 at 6:44 pm

    I did my last round of GOTV canvassing for Jennifer Wexton this afternoon, which went fine. We had special surprise guest with Tim Kaine at our campaign office at noon – Barack Obama!

    He was awesome and inspiring. I’m grinning and almost tearing up now just thinking about it. I think we’ll do him proud tomorrow.

  29. 29.

    dmsilev

    November 5, 2018 at 6:45 pm

    @cmorenc: That’s not really ActBlue’s fault. If you give money directly to the campaigns, you’ll get on equally many email lists.

  30. 30.

    WaterGirl

    November 5, 2018 at 6:46 pm

    @Steeplejack: Can I get your recipe for quest dip? Please.

  31. 31.

    FlipYrWhig

    November 5, 2018 at 6:46 pm

    @cmorenc: Yup I’m living with this right now. I think I gave roughly $1 per candidate on one of our cattle calls and now I get dozens of emails for candidates whose names I don’t know in districts far, far away. Oh well, there are worse problems to have.

  32. 32.

    justawriter

    November 5, 2018 at 6:48 pm

    Something to consider for next month, a lot of candidates, especially ones in deep red districts – the ‘no hopers’ who run anyway – often wind up with significant campaign debt after all the shouting is over. I know some candidates take years to pay off that debt. So once all the shouting is over, it would be nice to try and help clear some of that debt even though they only got 35 percent of the vote. It could help recruit stronger candidates in the future if they knew they wouldn’t have to cash out their 401 K. (I am also talking about helping people with regular jobs, not millionaires and billionaires capable of self funding.)

  33. 33.

    jharp

    November 5, 2018 at 6:48 pm

    @dmsilev:

    I’m aware and I’m also aware that Rasmussen has the same credibility as Fox News.

    But I wonder why Rasmussen would be sticking their neck out with such a contradictory poll the day before the election.

    Do they just not give a fuck or do they know something that nobody else does?

  34. 34.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 5, 2018 at 6:52 pm

    @Roger Moore: I’m surprised they haven’t come up with a decent one already tbh.

  35. 35.

    OzarkHillbilly

    November 5, 2018 at 6:52 pm

    @Mr Stagger Lee:

    watch Ozark on Netflix,

    I’m on netflix??? Damn. I thought that bullet riddled sign that says, “If you can read this, you are down range” was working. Geus I’ll have to shoot up a few news vans too.

  36. 36.

    Corner Stone

    November 5, 2018 at 6:53 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    Can I get your recipe for quest dip?

    “You find yourself in a room. There’s a door to your left and a set of stairs leading down to the right. There looks like what may be a torch on the wall beside the stairs.”

  37. 37.

    ruemara

    November 5, 2018 at 6:53 pm

    @Redshift: YAY! Happy for you and fingers supercrossed!

  38. 38.

    Redshift

    November 5, 2018 at 6:55 pm

    @dmsilev: And my impression is that campaigns are much better about respecting unsubscribe requests than they used to be. There have only been a few campaigns I’ve had to mark as spam because they repeatedly ignored their own unsubscribe button. (I’m looking at you, Cheri Bustos!)

  39. 39.

    WaterGirl

    November 5, 2018 at 6:55 pm

    @Corner Stone: Fucking autocorrect!

  40. 40.

    Redshift

    November 5, 2018 at 6:56 pm

    @jharp:

    Do they just not give a fuck or do they know something that nobody else does?

    No and no.

  41. 41.

    PsiFighter37

    November 5, 2018 at 6:57 pm

    Tomorrow, we start turning back the tide. Going to vote at 6AM as soon as the polls open here in NYC, even though it’s in the deepest part of blue in this country.

  42. 42.

    dmsilev

    November 5, 2018 at 6:57 pm

    @Corner Stone: It is dark. You have been eaten by a grue.

  43. 43.

    Comrade Colette Collaboratrice

    November 5, 2018 at 6:58 pm

    @justawriter:

    a lot of candidates, especially ones in deep red districts – the ‘no hopers’ who run anyway – often wind up with significant campaign debt after all the shouting is over. I know some candidates take years to pay off that debt. So once all the shouting is over, it would be nice to try and help clear some of that debt even though they only got 35 percent of the vote. It could help recruit stronger candidates in the future

    Excellent point, and I plan to search out a few worthy ex-candidates and thank them for fighting the good fight. It’s an investment in recruiting future candidates, as you say.

  44. 44.

    FlyingToaster

    November 5, 2018 at 7:01 pm

    We’re going to vote (in the rain, I imagine) right after school lets out for WarriorGirl tomorrow. This is likely the last time I’ll get to drag her to the polls, as next year she’ll be in middle school and “beyond all that”, or so I’m told. I should be able to tell how far along our precinct of ~3K voters has gotten. Hopefully a lot, even if our races are pretty much already decided (Charlie Baker Boo Hiss — Yay everyone else).

  45. 45.

    Uncle Cosmo

    November 5, 2018 at 7:02 pm

    @jharp: @dmsilev: Raz is the Obergruppenfuehrerof the Putsch-Poll, but even he usually slithers back toward reality by election time. Looks like he’s all in for fascism this year. Deserves to cool his heels in an orange jumpsuit for a few years but I don’t think statistical fraud is a crime yet.

  46. 46.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 5, 2018 at 7:03 pm

    @Redshift: We had special surprise guest with Tim Kaine at our campaign office at noon – Barack Obama!

    How was his voice? MSNBC played a clip from him earlier, and he could barely talk

    @cmorenc: I don’t know who Linda Coleman is, but I figure she must have been in one of those group donations, and I get at least four emails a day from her. I don’t mind the emails, but the texts are getting on my nerves. The bright side of your young people’s technology is my phone has hardly rung at all this round

  47. 47.

    Yarrow

    November 5, 2018 at 7:04 pm

    This sounds promising:

    1/ On the eve of #ElectionDay, here's the latest on #txelex:@nytimes released a new poll that puts @ColinAllredTX at a 4-point lead against @PeteSessions. The poll's ±4.7% margin of error means the contest could be a dead heat. From @gromerjeffers: https://t.co/IISY5kesDh— Dallas Morning News (@dallasnews) November 5, 2018

    Pete Sessions tossed out of Congress would be fantastic.

  48. 48.

    Roger Moore

    November 5, 2018 at 7:04 pm

    @cmorenc:

    So if Abrams and Gillum win, it’s a big deal worth celebrating for sure, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves yet on assuming demographic and attitudinal change has swept away the reactionary racists from their grip on power and their potential to capture a slim majority in some critical elections.

    I’m less excited about what their victories might mean about demographic and attitudinal changes and more excited about what they mean in concrete policy terms. There’s a huge difference between a Republican governor and a Democratic governor, and I hope those states get a chance to benefit from the change.

  49. 49.

    Yarrow

    November 5, 2018 at 7:05 pm

    @Yarrow: Meh. Moderation for too many damn links in a tweet. Please help.

  50. 50.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 5, 2018 at 7:05 pm

    Blog getting wonky for anyone else? Alain! HELP! If the blog isn’t up tomorrow I’ll have to join twitter

  51. 51.

    Roger Moore

    November 5, 2018 at 7:06 pm

    @cmorenc:
    I agree with your complaint. Act Blue really needs an “opt out of future candidate emails” option.

  52. 52.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 5, 2018 at 7:07 pm

    @Redshift: Looks like you (and Obama) made the twitter….

  53. 53.

    Mary G

    November 5, 2018 at 7:08 pm

    I gave up my landline earlier this year – yes, behind the crowd, but I had one of those MedicAlert systems I bought a couple of years ago and if the housemates hadn’t worked out would have had to use it. Unexpected benefit is that is the phone number ActBlue had for me, and I’m not changing it.

  54. 54.

    Yarrow

    November 5, 2018 at 7:10 pm

    Okay, here’s the text of the tweet in moderation:

    Dallas Morning News @dallasnews

    1/ On the eve of #ElectionDay, here’s the latest on #txelex:

    @nytimes released a new poll that puts @ColinAllredTX at a 4-point lead against @PeteSessions. The poll’s ±4.7% margin of error means the contest could be a dead heat.

    Also in that thread is an indication that Ken Paxton, the corrupt Texas AG who is currently under multiple felony indictments, is saying the race against Justin Nelson (Dem challenger) could be close. That would be a sweet and very, very important win. Ken Paxton is pushing a case in Texas to do away with the requirement to cover pre-existing conditions. Nelson has said he’ll toss out that case. This race is not well known outside Texas, and even inside Texas, and is important for everyone depending on the ACA because their goal is to nationalize that case.

  55. 55.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 5, 2018 at 7:13 pm

    Tommy Vietor @ TVietor08
    The day before Election Day is like Christmas eve except there’s even odds of getting presents or watching Santa beat the shit out of your family

    The O’Bros are still seriously scarred by their overconfidence in 2016

  56. 56.

    Schlemazel

    November 5, 2018 at 7:13 pm

    @jharp:
    Silver exposed Rasmussen 2 elections ago. They are wildly GOP favorable to start & then narrow in the last few days so they can claim to be close to right
    this year they don’t care about close, they want to support Dump

  57. 57.

    Jeffro

    November 5, 2018 at 7:15 pm

    Chris Matthews is about to have…Cher on.

    No wonder I don’t watch cable tv news.

  58. 58.

    John Revolta

    November 5, 2018 at 7:15 pm

    @Redshift: WOW! That’s so cool! You guys got DONUTS!

  59. 59.

    Ohio Mom

    November 5, 2018 at 7:18 pm

    I just got still another robocall for the Republican incumbent for the Ohio Statehouse. This one was recorded by Senator Bob Portman. I’ve gotten very few calls from other candidates this year.

    I (early) voted for the Democratic challenger of course, just as I did the last time she ran to be my State
    Rep. I like her but would never say I think she is an especially strong candidate.

    She’s underfunded and doesn’t have that je ne says quoi of typically successful office-seekers. She might be a little too much down-to-Earth.

    And yet…her Republican opponent is running scared. I am enjoying that, and hope it is a good omen.

  60. 60.

    oatler.

    November 5, 2018 at 7:18 pm

    @Jeffro: Could be worse; you might see Chuck Todd polishing GOP knobs.
    Only untll Andy Lack is tarred and/or feathered…

  61. 61.

    Corner Stone

    November 5, 2018 at 7:19 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: It’s been totes wonky for a few days now. I figure it will release Hell on Earth tomorrow at the worst possible time.

  62. 62.

    Ohio Mom

    November 5, 2018 at 7:20 pm

    @Redshift: I saw that video of Obama and Kaine delivering donuts! So jealous!

  63. 63.

    rikyrah

    November 5, 2018 at 7:21 pm

    @Keith P:
    Are you serious or joking?
    If serious, see if Texas has an emergency hospital mail Ballot. In my state, there is a form, your doctor has to fill it out. Someone has to come to our office and pick up the Ballot and deliver it back to our office before 7 pm election day.

  64. 64.

    rikyrah

    November 5, 2018 at 7:23 pm

    @Roger Moore:
    The GOP is too busy trying to grifters from the rubes. They can’t take a break from that to mere fundraise.??

  65. 65.

    rikyrah

    November 5, 2018 at 7:27 pm

    @cmorenc:
    I have posts in my head about the severity of the elections of Abrams and Gillum if they win.
    I understand what you are saying, but if they win… I am keeping my words until we get to cross that bridge.

  66. 66.

    JR

    November 5, 2018 at 7:28 pm

    @jharp: they’re trading their credibility earned in 2006 and 2008 for RW morale boosts, as has been the case for the last 8 years or so.

  67. 67.

    TenguPhule

    November 5, 2018 at 7:28 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    The day before Election Day is like Christmas eve except there’s even odds of getting presents or watching Santa beat the shit out of your family

    Santa or Robot Santa from Futurama.

    Won’t know until we open the box with the damn cat in it.

  68. 68.

    TenguPhule

    November 5, 2018 at 7:29 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Blog getting wonky for anyone else?

    Tide comes in, tide goes out.

  69. 69.

    VeniceRiley

    November 5, 2018 at 7:29 pm

    @B.B.A.:

    Only 36 hours until the 2020 primaries begin!

    Don’t make me come over there.

  70. 70.

    hilts

    November 5, 2018 at 7:31 pm

    @Jeffro:

    Now, Chris Matthews has Anthony Scaramucci on.

  71. 71.

    Steeplejack

    November 5, 2018 at 7:31 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    Yes! Just dug it up but need to edit it a bit to incorporate my changes. Will post it here when I get it ready.

  72. 72.

    Roger Moore

    November 5, 2018 at 7:32 pm

    @rikyrah:
    I would think that something like Act Blue would be perfect for their grifting act. On the one hand, the people running it could skim, which seems like a great grift to start with. On the other hand Act Blue allows not just Democratic candidates but also allied groups to raise funds. A unified funding platform for all their grifts sounds like a perfect thing for the Republicans.

  73. 73.

    Jeffro

    November 5, 2018 at 7:33 pm

    @oatler.: eww gross

    Tapper is hosting some panel of mostly retreads but he did just make a funny.

    Tweety is back…with the Mooch on(!)
    Yeesh

  74. 74.

    Jeffro

    November 5, 2018 at 7:33 pm

    @hilts: ugh just saw that

  75. 75.

    JPL

    November 5, 2018 at 7:35 pm

    Obama called me. I did mention that I adored him, but since he kept talking I don’t think he heard me.

  76. 76.

    TenguPhule

    November 5, 2018 at 7:35 pm

    Some needed humor from Alexandra Petri.

    The only lesson I have retained from 2016 is that there is no such thing as certainty of any shape or form. Nothing is knowable, and we drift blindly through a void of insufficient information, and the birds whose entrails Nate Silver alone can read and interpret do not have reliable entrails.

    In accordance with this philosophy, here is a guide to what the polls mean, as far as I can understand them.

    Candidate A is up by 5 points: No one can know anything about who will win this race, and we are fools to presume. Go vote! Go register to vote! Beat down the doors of strangers! Weep, fall on your knees, plead with them! It is not too late!

    Candidate A is up by 5 points (margin of error ± 5 pts.): POLL, YOU HAVE TOLD US NOTHING. You are bad and you ought to feel bad! Go home and think about what you have done.

    Candidate A has a 4-in-5 chance of victory: Until the actual moment of election, you can rest confident in the knowledge that Candidate A will surely prevail and Candidate B’s election is unlikely, but then, of course, Candidate B will win, and you will never know peace again.

    The needle is pointing blue: This sign is meaningless, and we cannot rest until we have seen and counted each ballot by hand! I ABJURE YOU, FALSE SOOTHSAYER! Do not taunt me with these phantoms!

    Democrats have a 7-in-8 chance of retaking the House: It is impossible to say who will retake the house until Wolf Blitzer is standing in front of a glowing blue map holding a result in his hand, and it is best not to anger the gods with your hubris.

    Republicans have a 1-in-8 chance of keeping the House: Republicans will almost certainly keep the House.

    This seat is a toss-up: Why would you even tell me this, poll?

    This seat is likely Democratic: This seat, this taunting tempter, will whisper hope to you and then DASH THAT HOPE, DASH IT TO BITS!

    This seat leans Republican: One thing we can say about this seat is that it will definitely be colored pink on a map for a period of time.

    Exit polls show…: Maybe by attempting to measure things we are altering them. Maybe we shouldn’t measure anything. Maybe it is already too late….

    This seat is safely red: I believe that quantum physics states that if you run into a wall enough times, statistically, one of those times the particles of the wall will align in such a way that you are able to pass through the wall! It’s worth a try!

  77. 77.

    hilts

    November 5, 2018 at 7:36 pm

    Presidential adviser Ivanka Trump’s fashion brand won first trial approval for 16 new trademarks from the Chinese government in October. These approvals come about three months after Ivanka announced that her brand was shutting down, and mark the largest number of new Chinese trademarks she has received in a single month since President Donald Trump took office.

    h/t https://www.citizensforethics.org/ivanka-trump-trademarks

  78. 78.

    Jeffro

    November 5, 2018 at 7:38 pm

    Meanwhile, apparently Steve King’s closing argument is to “hope that Sotomayor and Kagan elope to Cuba”

    Fer realz ?

    VOTE!!!

  79. 79.

    MazeDancer

    November 5, 2018 at 7:39 pm

    Wow! That is a whole lotta money!!

    Well done all!

    And big applause for DougJ and his Fabulous Thermometers!

  80. 80.

    WaterGirl

    November 5, 2018 at 7:40 pm

    @Steeplejack: I will look forward to that!

  81. 81.

    TenguPhule

    November 5, 2018 at 7:41 pm

    Border Protection is preparing for the caravan — with weapons and gear designed for combat

    Sorry Yarrow, I don’t think this is going away after tomorrow.

    The M4 semiautomatic rifle in his hands is tipped with a suppressor favored by Special Operations to muffle gunshots during clandestine missions.

    Just above that is a PEQ-15 sight, which projects an infrared beam visible with night-vision goggles so the shooter can fire at night or point out targets for comrades and helicopters above. A tactical flashlight and holographic sight round out the rifle. Magazines are at his hip for quick reloading during a firefight.

    A mask obscures his face, and he wears a noise-canceling tactical headset that would look natural for scouting an Afghan valley for Taliban insurgents.

    But photos taken Monday of U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents training weeks before a potential arrival of a caravan of Central Americans reveal a southern border already militarized — even before the arrival of thousands of active-duty soldiers.

    What could possibly be worse then active duty troops at the border?

    A militarized border patrol who are accountable to nobody.

  82. 82.

    WaterGirl

    November 5, 2018 at 7:41 pm

    @JPL: Laughing.

  83. 83.

    Uncle Cosmo

    November 5, 2018 at 7:42 pm

    @Schlemazel: Masters of fucking around with turnout models to support the Thuglican narrative reich-wing-wet-dream du jour, then reverting to reality toward the end so as to maintain a figleaf of credibility as an honest survey operation. I’m guessing they figure with the big-bucks boys all in with Trump & the Global Oligarchy Putsch, they can carve out a decent living as Twitler’s statistical (out)liars. In a few years’ time, with any luck, Raz won’t be hirable for surveying cat food brands.

  84. 84.

    Uncle Cosmo

    November 5, 2018 at 7:44 pm

    @hilts: Has he called Mooch a liar to his face yet? No? Then fuck Tweety.

  85. 85.

    Mike in DC

    November 5, 2018 at 7:55 pm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UjvdZm-Tu8

  86. 86.

    waratah

    November 5, 2018 at 8:09 pm

    @Yarrow: this is great news, thank you.

  87. 87.

    Redshift

    November 5, 2018 at 8:18 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    How was his voice? MSNBC played a clip from him earlier, and he could barely talk

    It was a little rough, and he was nursing it, but he sounded fine.

  88. 88.

    Redshift

    November 5, 2018 at 8:19 pm

    @JPL: We called out that we loved him as he left the campaign office, and he definitely heard us. I have a great picture of him turning and smiling.

  89. 89.

    CaseyL

    November 5, 2018 at 8:22 pm

    I may try to stay off-line tomorrow evening (Hah!) because Election Night 2016 left some very deep scars. I may wait until late enough that the East Coast races have been called, and drop by here to see what people are saying.

  90. 90.

    Aussie Sheila

    November 5, 2018 at 8:25 pm

    Hi all,

    I left a good luck message down on another thread but it didn’t get through. ? I just want to say ‘the whole world is watching’.

    All the best to every Dem candidate running, and may the wind be at their backs. I look forward to tomorrow evening and for what it’s worth I feel more confident about the results this time than I did in 2016, when I had a queasy feeling for the whole year.

    I hope this doesn’t get lost, because you all need to know how much everyone has their finger so crossed in the great Southland!

    Good luck and good voting!

    Cheers All.

  91. 91.

    Fair Economist

    November 5, 2018 at 8:36 pm

    @jharp:

    Someone is going to look pretty out of touch on Wednesday morning.

    2018 Generic Congressional Vote – CNN – Democrats 55, Republicans 42 – Democrats +13

    2018 Generic Congressional Vote – Rasmussen Reports – Democrats 45, Republicans 46 – Republicans +1

    Rasmussen long had a system where they would produce heavily slanted polls for most of the cycle and then slide to an accurate model at the end so they could pretend their slanted polls were useful. They gave that up a few years ago – shortly after the founder left in 2013, IIRC. Now they just produce garbage R-slanted polls that are bought for fraudulent purposes (fundraising in hopeless races, slanting poll averages, a false headline for an OpEd, etc.).

  92. 92.

    Steeplejack

    November 5, 2018 at 8:54 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    As requested!

    Mexican Queso (Cheese) Dip

    Prep: 5-10 minutes.
    Cook: 5-10 minutes.
    Yield: About 30 fluid ounces.

    1¼ lbs. white American cheese.
    8-10 oz. heavy cream (or Half and Half or whole milk).
    ¼ cup diced green chiles (canned).
    2 pickled jalapeños, chopped (or equivalent from a jar).
    1 oz. pickled jalapeño juice.
    Pinch of cumin (optional).

    1. Grate the cheese coarsely or cut it into cubes about ½" to 1" square. (I prefer to grate—less hassle with cold cheese.)

    2. Stir together the cheese and cream (or milk) in a large microwave-safe bowl. (Start with 8 ounces and add the rest if necessary as you are heating.) Microwave on high for 5 minutes, stopping to stir every minute. The mixture might seem watery during the first few stirs, but should come together as the cheese melts.

    3. Remove from the microwave and stir in the rest of the ingredients. Mix well and maybe give it another 30-60 seconds in the microwave to make sure everything is warm.

    3. Serve immediately. For a party, you can transfer it to a small slow cooker on the warm or low setting. Or you can give it another zap in the microwave occasionally if it gets too cool or thickens up too much.

    You can store any leftover dip in the fridge. (There won’t be any.) Reheat in the microwave, stirring every 30-60 seconds until creamy and hot.

    ———
    Steep’s notes:

    “Heat for 5 minutes” is not a hard rule. I usually have to go a few minutes over to get full melting and the right consistency. (Think of the queso from your favorite Mexican restaurant. El Torero in Atlanta for me.) It depends on your microwave.

    White American cheese is available at most deli counters in the grocery store. I have used Land o’ Lakes and Boar’s Head. In a pinch you can use Kraft white American cheese slices. Ix-nay on the Velveeta! (Although apparently there is now a white version of Velveeta designed specifically for this kind of recipe. I have not tried that.) This is the ingredient where you don’t want to “substitute” or screw around.

    You can vary the heat by increasing or decreasing the amount of chiles and jalapeños. The amounts above are about middle of the road.

    This recipe is adapted from one at Seeded at the Table (h/t to Nikki Gladd, the proprietor). I highly recommend that you use cream instead of the milk and water in the original. This is one of those recipes that you don’t want to “lighten up” or “make healthier.” It is what it is!

    Also, as with most recipes on line, the comments are hilarious. You would never think that so many things could go so wrong with melting cheese.

  93. 93.

    Mohagan

    November 5, 2018 at 8:59 pm

    @FlipYrWhig: me too. And I’ve gotten 3-4 emails daily from some of the candidates! It’s really blown up my inbox and the real problem was it all became white noise and I would just delete en masse and contribute through BJ.

  94. 94.

    Mohagan

    November 5, 2018 at 9:17 pm

    @MazeDancer: I second the applause and appreciation of Doug J. Well done sir!

  95. 95.

    J R in WV

    November 5, 2018 at 9:26 pm

    The real total is way higher than that, we have contributed a relative ton of money this election cycle, mostly via ActBlue, some via your posts, but others from looking up a likely sounding candidate’s site.

    Thanks for your fund raising efforts this year!!!

  96. 96.

    zhena gogolia

    November 5, 2018 at 9:35 pm

    @Mohagan:

    Yes, this has been great. I’ve done my donating directly to candidates, but I’ve found these posts very inspiring.

  97. 97.

    tomtofa

    November 5, 2018 at 9:57 pm

    Now it’s going to be a loooong ~40-50 hours or so till things have taken shape.
    My wife left her ballot with me before taking off to Europe for the month; it felt good to deliver a double-barrel to the ballot pickup box outside city hall.
    SF Bay Area isn’t in danger in terms of candidates, but there are some tricky ballot measures this time.

  98. 98.

    J R in WV

    November 5, 2018 at 10:01 pm

    @Steeplejack:

    Sounds really good. Now we can get queso quesadilla cheese in even Kroger’s which may be better for quese dip.

  99. 99.

    Steeplejack

    November 5, 2018 at 10:09 pm

    @J R in WV:

    It’s going to depend on the melting point of the cheese—that’s crucial. If you have access to some Mexican cheeses, you could look for “dipping” or “melting” cheeses.

    Many comments on that recipe site from alleged insiders say that even the Mexican restaurants use white American cheese—specifically Land o’ Lakes “extra melt” cheese. Mostly sold through food-service companies, although a couple of people said they have seen it at Costco or Walmart.

  100. 100.

    Jean

    November 5, 2018 at 10:16 pm

    @Redshift: I saw some clips from that rally with Obama! I am praying Spanberger wins in addition to Wexton. I did my bit for Spanberger’s campaign. I so want to see Dave Brat defeated. At the same time, I love Abigail S.

  101. 101.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 5, 2018 at 11:26 pm

    @Fair Economist: I figure Rasmussen is just betting on the possibility that the Democrats don’t win the House–if they do, nobody cares what Rasmussen said, but if they don’t, Rasmussen can pull out those numbers and look like geniuses to innumerate people. I remember all the people after the 2016 election saying Rasmussen had been proven to be the most accurate poll.

  102. 102.

    WaterGirl

    November 6, 2018 at 1:35 am

    @Steeplejack: Late getting back to the thread, but thank you!

    I had never heard of white american cheese until now, but we do have a store that sells boar’s head, so I’m sure I will be able to get it there.

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