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You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2018 / Breathe… and the House flips

Breathe… and the House flips

by David Anderson|  November 6, 201810:27 pm| 155 Comments

This post is in: Election 2018

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BREAKING: Democrats gain control of the House, @NBCNews projects. https://t.co/Groo2ugFBx pic.twitter.com/mvoULgwkit

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) November 7, 2018

Update 1

Major things that I am thinking about:

  • subpoena power
  • Mueller cover
  • Medicaid is safe
  • ACA is safe
  • Medicaid Expansion is on track for at least another couple states
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Previous Post: « More Nail-Biting Results-Watching Open Thread
Next Post: Don’t throw bouquets at me »

Reader Interactions

155Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:28 pm

    Thanks, China.

  2. 2.

    Jerzy Russian

    November 6, 2018 at 10:30 pm

    Drop your linen and start your grinnin’!

  3. 3.

    LAC

    November 6, 2018 at 10:30 pm

    I am sure there is a way to piss on it here. But that is damn good news.

  4. 4.

    ??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??

    November 6, 2018 at 10:30 pm

    Tonight really sucked in Ohio. Cordray looks like he’s going down with over 71% of precincts reporting in, along with the other statewide offices. Brown is winning, so that’s good. Issue 1, the criminal justice and drug reform ballot initiative is dead, but probably not the end. Interestingly, with 71% in, the Dem supreme court candidates look on track to win. Go figure.

  5. 5.

    Mary G

    November 6, 2018 at 10:30 pm

    Jesus, does everyone have to start a new thread? I’m still back two or three half the time. But let me repost this, because an OKLAHOMA Democrat is likely to flip a House seat:

    Kendra Horn up to 95% to win in Oklahoma 5, according to our estimates. Would be a stunner https://t.co/tEPkHvDROn— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 7, 2018

  6. 6.

    chopper

    November 6, 2018 at 10:30 pm

    what kind of dumbass pro wrestling-style graphic is that, msnbc? jesus.

  7. 7.

    Cheryl Rofer

    November 6, 2018 at 10:31 pm

    I’m not sure I believe this yet – seems like counting chickens too soon – but if it holds, it’s gonna be fun!

    Looks like the big winner of the election is the House Intelligence Committee who are now rid of Nunes as chairman https://t.co/aqUN0z1OOe

    — Vote Exactly One Of The Things (@pwnallthethings) November 7, 2018

  8. 8.

    Jerzy Russian

    November 6, 2018 at 10:31 pm

    The poles are still open out here. I anxiously wait to see if Duncan Fucking Hunter, Jr. and that car thief Issa will lose.

  9. 9.

    Ohio Mom

    November 6, 2018 at 10:31 pm

    I guess winning the House was my bottom line but I am bummed by Cordray et al losing. Maybe tomorrow I’ll appreciate the House win more fully. Also, my bad arm in aching and that never does anything for my mood.

  10. 10.

    guachi

    November 6, 2018 at 10:31 pm

    And I feel like a dumbass for being so eeyore-like early on. Looks like I was fooled by Florida returns being more skewed to Republicans than expected.

    Two upsets for Democrats in the House and zero upsets for Republicans in the House.

  11. 11.

    p.a.

    November 6, 2018 at 10:32 pm

    @Baud: ;- )

    Ahhh… but will the majority be Blue Dog proof?*

    *couldn’t resist

  12. 12.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:32 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: I’d like to get rid of him as a rep.

  13. 13.

    opiejeanne

    November 6, 2018 at 10:32 pm

    Great! And I expect it will get better tomorrow.

    Kornacki was giving me the fantods around 6 tonight pst with his prediction that it might not be possible to flip the House. I turned him off after one of the others on the panel pointed out that 238 total IS a flip.

  14. 14.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:33 pm

    @p.a.: Fight the real enemy.

  15. 15.

    khead

    November 6, 2018 at 10:33 pm

    Nancy Smash!

  16. 16.

    Cheryl Rofer

    November 6, 2018 at 10:33 pm

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is projected to win in NYC, becoming the youngest woman ever in Congress https://t.co/pg9327Rk0M

    — Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) November 7, 2018

  17. 17.

    Jerzy Russian

    November 6, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    Also, too, the 538 live blog still has a 9 in 10 chance of a Democratic controlled House. That is not exactly a 10 in 10 chance. However, it is better than the ~50% or so level it was at when I left work.

  18. 18.

    Dan B

    November 6, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    David Anderson, naughty boy! You’ve been waiting to beat every other hard working front pager to the punch…

    Oh, and Yipee!

    Jared Polis put tears in my eyes much like Obama’s victories. Now it’s time to make the House put America back on track, and hopefully to an even better track than before.

  19. 19.

    JWR

    November 6, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    @Mary G:

    Jesus, does everyone have to start a new thread?

    I know, huh? I’d like to see at least 100 comments per thread before a new one goes up. (Going back now to catch myself up.)

  20. 20.

    lamh36

    November 6, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    What’s the latest on GA and FL?

    Oh any news on Lucy McBath in GA?

  21. 21.

    Cheryl Rofer

    November 6, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    @Baud: I’ll second that. I also think there’s a lot more of a story about his crazy antics than we’ve heard so far.

  22. 22.

    Luciamia

    November 6, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    Thaaaaaank goodness!

  23. 23.

    Platonailedit

    November 6, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    @Jerzy Russian:

    Is issa running? I thought the corrupt coward quit?

  24. 24.

    Spanky

    November 6, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    Hey, isn’t it time for a new thread by now?

    @Jerzy Russian: Issa’s not running, but I hear that he did guarantee a Dem win in his district today.

  25. 25.

    mdblanche

    November 6, 2018 at 10:36 pm

    It’s been ten minutes. Can we get a new thread yet?

  26. 26.

    Cheryl Rofer

    November 6, 2018 at 10:36 pm

    Bad night for Jim Crow in Louisiana. Oregon is now slated to be the last state in the Union that allows non-unanimous jury verdicts. pic.twitter.com/gld0l2VXq8

    — Matt Ford (@fordm) November 7, 2018

  27. 27.

    Raven

    November 6, 2018 at 10:36 pm

    @lamh36:
    Candidate Party Votes Percentage
    Karen Handel i GOP 72,766 51%
    Lucy McBath Dem 68,628 49%
    Total 141,394
    Min: 0% Max: 100%
    14% Reporting 28 of 207 Precincts

  28. 28.

    Jerzy Russian

    November 6, 2018 at 10:37 pm

    @Platonailedit: You are correct. He is still in Congress, but he did not run for reelection. It looks like his seat will turn blue!

  29. 29.

    PsiFighter37

    November 6, 2018 at 10:37 pm

    Kind of shocked that we’re going to pick up a House seat in FUCKING OKLAHOMA and somehow manage to lose statewide races in FL.

    PF37 +about to start #4

  30. 30.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:37 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: Good for LA.

  31. 31.

    Cheryl Rofer

    November 6, 2018 at 10:38 pm

    CHICAGO (AP) — Democrat Sean Casten defeats Rep. Peter Roskam to flip suburban Chicago district GOP has held for decades.

    — Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) November 7, 2018

  32. 32.

    Gravenstone

    November 6, 2018 at 10:39 pm

    @Platonailedit: Issa conceded sometime this afternoon that his seat would go Democratic.

  33. 33.

    ChrisS

    November 6, 2018 at 10:39 pm

    Oh fucking thank god.

    AND VOTERS!

    Holy hell, I didn’t know if I would be able to sleep.

  34. 34.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:39 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: Nice. Scott Walker is also gone.

  35. 35.

    Ian G.

    November 6, 2018 at 10:39 pm

    We have a check on the madman in the White House. That’s massively important to the survival of the Republic.

    The senate map in 2020 will be much more favorable. Let’s flip that and the presidency then.

  36. 36.

    Timurid

    November 6, 2018 at 10:39 pm

    @PsiFighter37:

    Somehow Florida is redder than Kansas now…

  37. 37.

    Mary G

    November 6, 2018 at 10:39 pm

    A President can’t spend a single dime without an appropriation and all appropriations must originate in the House which the @TheDemocrats will soon control. What Dems can’t defeat given the @GOP Senate majority they starve by defunding.@MSNBC— Col. Morris Davis (@ColMorrisDavis) November 7, 2018

    No wall for you, Twitler.

  38. 38.

    b1narys3rf

    November 6, 2018 at 10:40 pm

    @Ohio Mom:

    I guess winning the House was my bottom line but I am bummed by Cordray et al losing. Maybe tomorrow I’ll appreciate the House win more fully. Also, my bad arm in aching and that never does anything for my mood.

    Please explain to me who TF all these Brown-DeWine voters are? What is wrong with this state? We’re no longer swing far as I’m concerned. 2020 Dem Prez candidate should maybe IMO spend MUCH less time and money here.

  39. 39.

    TaMara (HFG)

    November 6, 2018 at 10:40 pm

    @opiejeanne: You lasted longer than I did. The yelling, the hysteria. He does realize he’s miked, right?

  40. 40.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:40 pm

    @PsiFighter37: Realignments aren’t pretty.

  41. 41.

    lamh36

    November 6, 2018 at 10:40 pm

    @kylegriffin1
    NBC News: Michelle Lujan Grisham projected winner in New Mexico governor. DEM PICKUP. http://nbcnews.to/LiveBlog

    9:34 PM – Nov 6, 2018

  42. 42.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 6, 2018 at 10:40 pm

    Sam Wang @ SamWangPhD
    32m32 minutes ago
    The NYT currently projects a national popular-vote margin of D+9.2%. For comparison, the last five largest margins, considered wave elections:
    1994: R+7.1%
    2006: D+8.0%
    2008: D+10.6%
    2010: R+7.2%
    2014: R+5.7%
    By historical standards, it’s a popular wave.

    Curbelo concedes in FL, Ann Kirkpatrick takes Martha McSally’s former seat in AZ-2

  43. 43.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:40 pm

    @b1narys3rf: White male union members.

  44. 44.

    zhena gogolia

    November 6, 2018 at 10:41 pm

    I’m afraid CT is going to get a Trumpian governor.

  45. 45.

    lamh36

    November 6, 2018 at 10:41 pm

    @kylegriffin1
    19s20 seconds ago
    More
    NBC News: Debbie Mucsarel-Powell projected winner in Florida-26. DEM PICKUP. Carlos Curbelo goes down.

  46. 46.

    TaMara (HFG)

    November 6, 2018 at 10:41 pm

    @Ian G.: Agreed. And with a lot more Dems at the state level, it’s time to fix the gerrrymandering issues. That’s how we take back the Senate. And fuck Texas.

  47. 47.

    Mike J

    November 6, 2018 at 10:41 pm

    Thanks to everybody who volunteered.

    Think about going by the campaign office tomorrow. Shit needs to be cleaned up. We’ll need to get the space back to condition to get our deposit back. Many places have laws requiring lawn signs put up on public rights of way taken down within seven days of the election. The work isn’t over, it’s just started.

  48. 48.

    Ian G.

    November 6, 2018 at 10:41 pm

    Also, as disappointing as the Florida races are, it’s beginning to look like Virginia and Colorado are turning into solid blue states. Those will be nice to have in the bag as we work to recapture Big 10 country.

  49. 49.

    Cheryl Rofer

    November 6, 2018 at 10:42 pm

    @Baud: Excellent! I missed that! Looks like Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) will be NM’s next governor. Don’t know if that’s been called yet.

  50. 50.

    b1narys3rf

    November 6, 2018 at 10:43 pm

    @Baud: Their unions are massively failing to educate and organize them then. Of course, that’s largely by design as I unfortunately understand it, in a society where semantically “union” along with (maybe not so much anymore) “liberal” were given negative connotations bleeding into self-hate.

  51. 51.

    japa21

    November 6, 2018 at 10:43 pm

    Again, just because I like to say this. King in IA is down 50-48 with 10 % reporting.

  52. 52.

    c u n d gulag

    November 6, 2018 at 10:43 pm

    HUZZAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  53. 53.

    Cheryl Rofer

    November 6, 2018 at 10:43 pm

    House Oversight Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings.

    House Oversight Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings.

    House Oversight Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings.

    — Kevin M. Kruse (@KevinMKruse) November 7, 2018

  54. 54.

    lamh36

    November 6, 2018 at 10:43 pm

    @ec_schneider
    13m13 minutes ago
    More
    REP. PETER ROSKAM GONE IN #IL06.

    Another suburban R bites the dust. Democrat Sean Casten wins.

  55. 55.

    Aleta

    November 6, 2018 at 10:43 pm

    hooray Michigan !! yea Detroit!

  56. 56.

    dmsilev

    November 6, 2018 at 10:44 pm

    @Jerzy Russian: Issa is retiring, but he went on record this morning predicting that the Democrat would win his seat.

  57. 57.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:44 pm

    @b1narys3rf: I don’t really blame the unions for the identity politics of their members.

  58. 58.

    bluehill

    November 6, 2018 at 10:44 pm

    @TaMara (HFG): Yep. Gship pickups will be important. Supermajority in NC big.

  59. 59.

    TaMara (HFG)

    November 6, 2018 at 10:44 pm

    @japa21: That would make my night even better.

  60. 60.

    Ridnik Chrome

    November 6, 2018 at 10:44 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: That’s MY congresswoman-elect! And a big eff-you to everyone who said that the only reason she won the primary is because she wasn’t running on the same ticket as Cuomo. Lots of people came out in Sunnyside, Queens to support her. There were still lines at my polling place at eight PM.

  61. 61.

    Gravenstone

    November 6, 2018 at 10:44 pm

    This is the bare minimum we needed to achieve in order to stem the rot and start trying hold people to account. While disappointing that some major targets remain standing (Cruz, Scott, etc.), it does sound like those efforts helped the state legislatures. And from there, hopefully a new generation of Democratic leaders will develop.

  62. 62.

    lamh36

    November 6, 2018 at 10:44 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer: Maxine Waters Finance Right?

  63. 63.

    ChrisS

    November 6, 2018 at 10:44 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    1994 was the year that broke politics and it was only +7.1%.

    The democrats get a +9.2 and they squeek out a house win …

  64. 64.

    JWR

    November 6, 2018 at 10:45 pm

    @Baud:

    Scott Walker is also gone.

    This will (partially) make up for the Texas Senate race. (Blech! Another 6 years of Cruz the Ooze.)

  65. 65.

    JGabriel

    November 6, 2018 at 10:45 pm

    Starting tomorrow, Democrats need to begin an under the radar campaign to make expanding the Supreme Court an achievable goal for when we next win the Senate and Presidency.

    With another two years of GOP Senate control, the best we can hope for is no more changes to SCOTUS before 2021 – but that relies on both Ginsburg and Breyer remaining healthy enough – and alive enough – to hang on until then. If either leaves SCOTUS before 2021 – if Trump and/or the GOP get to put another fascist on the Supreme Court – we will absolutely need to expand it once we get control of the Senate and Executive Branch if we are to have any hope of a Democratic agenda surviving judicial appeals.

  66. 66.

    Ohio Mom

    November 6, 2018 at 10:45 pm

    @b1narys3rf: I have the same question. I mean, Brown is the epitome of a Democrat. And the same people vote for dreck (Yiddish for sh*t) like DeWine?!

    You can blame us sending too many Republicans to the House on gerrymandering but there is no excuse for DeWine.

  67. 67.

    Mary G

    November 6, 2018 at 10:45 pm

    Another Trumpkin goes down:

    #TX32: Colin Allred (D) defeats Rep. Pete Sessions (R). Dem PICKUP. This district voted 48%-47% for Clinton in 2016 and @CookPolitical considers this one of the bellwether races for House control.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 7, 2018

    ETA:

    Oh yes. Pete Sessions has been defeated by Colin Allred in #TX12.Replacing a #racist incumbent with a black 1st time candidate is fantastic.#Midterms2018 #ElectionNight— Victoria #VoteBlue Brownworth (@VABVOX) November 7, 2018

  68. 68.

    Jerzy Russian

    November 6, 2018 at 10:46 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I would like everyone to get a tattoo showing how many people voted for Democrats in the House and Senate, and how many voted for Republicans. I don’t know the exact numbers, but more people voted for Democrats as representatives and senators than not. After everyone has their tattoo, we can have every congressional district in the county have the same number of people. California would pick up about 50 seats that way. After that, I want a pony.

  69. 69.

    Dan B

    November 6, 2018 at 10:46 pm

    Let’s hope the Dems can keep Trans rights, immigrant rights ( DACA – WH appealed to Supremes today, monsters!), and several others intact, or not much worse. And Roe! Not sure how the tide can be stopped on that. (What those Greek women did long ago..)

  70. 70.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 6, 2018 at 10:46 pm

    @PsiFighter37: The most under-covered story of the last 30 years, really, is Democrats getting stronger in the West. Starting from the West Coast and working eastward. VA and NC are also getting gradually bluer.

    Meanwhile, we seem to be gradually losing big chunks of the Midwest. Though it actually is looking a little bluer tonight than I might have feared.

    And the Florida and Georgia results suck, but we can console ourselves with the knowledge that the GA election was unbelievably crooked.

  71. 71.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 6, 2018 at 10:46 pm

    @Baud: @Cheryl Rofer: Nice. Scott Walker is also gone.

    Woo hoo! that in itself is almost worth popping a cork

  72. 72.

    Ohio Mom

    November 6, 2018 at 10:47 pm

    @c u n d gulag: Wow. Haven’t seen you in forever. How are you?

  73. 73.

    lamh36

    November 6, 2018 at 10:47 pm

    Oh shit… Peter King running tight?

    https://twitter.com/JasonKirell/status/1060014644440563713

  74. 74.

    Aleta

    November 6, 2018 at 10:47 pm

    Unanimous Jury Coalition. @UnanimousJuryLA

    Tonight, a majority of Louisiana voters voted to pass Amendment 2, which will require unanimous jury verdicts in felony trials.

    This victory is yours, Louisiana!

  75. 75.

    Cheryl Rofer

    November 6, 2018 at 10:47 pm

    @lamh36: Not sure, but I think so.

  76. 76.

    japa21

    November 6, 2018 at 10:47 pm

    IA-03 now flipped. Now let’s get King.

  77. 77.

    Quinerly

    November 6, 2018 at 10:47 pm

    @PsiFighter37: as Baud said (Poco endorses ?), Dems are over performing in OK and KS. Who would have thunk?

  78. 78.

    mad citizen

    November 6, 2018 at 10:48 pm

    I’m not clear on how fixing gerrymandering fixes statewide Senate races.

    On a down note, thinking, with my birthday coming up at midnight, I can’t live out my remaining years in Indiana, my home for nearly six decades from birth.

  79. 79.

    Ridnik Chrome

    November 6, 2018 at 10:48 pm

    @Baud: Walker is out? YEEEESSSSS!!!! I hated that union-busting piece of shit.

  80. 80.

    Jerzy Russian

    November 6, 2018 at 10:48 pm

    @JWR:

    (Blech! Another 6 years of Cruz the Ooze.)

    I am ashamed to admit it, but I never would have come up with Cruz the Ooze. Nice job!

  81. 81.

    b1narys3rf

    November 6, 2018 at 10:48 pm

    @Ohio Mom: DeWine has an annoying ability to put himself across like a “moderate.” Sadly I find many high-level OH Rs have this ability and there are too many easily fooled here. Even my old dad voted for DeWine for various (too many different) positions in the past and he’s a solid New Deal Democrat.

  82. 82.

    opiejeanne

    November 6, 2018 at 10:48 pm

    @TaMara (HFG): Not really. I paused the show for 15 to 20 minutes then I’d go to the live feed. I did that a couple of times before I shut it off.
    My husband doesn’t mind him, I can’t explain why. Kornacki makes me feel stabby every damned time, no matter how far ahead the Democrats are.

  83. 83.

    debbie

    November 6, 2018 at 10:49 pm

    Fucking Troy Balderson. “We have ran four races.” Fucking hick. Fucking rube.

  84. 84.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:49 pm

    Is it fair to say that the GOP overperformed in the South and we did well everywhere else?

  85. 85.

    PsiFighter37

    November 6, 2018 at 10:49 pm

    @lamh36: I’d love for him to get canned. He was the original rabid anti-Muslim GOPer in Congress after 9/11…people forget that since he started fighting with Rubio and Cruz over Hurricane Sandy funding.

  86. 86.

    Mary G

    November 6, 2018 at 10:49 pm

    If a front pager is around, I tried to add a second tweet to my comment at 67 and it went into moderation, probably for too many links.

  87. 87.

    Mike J

    November 6, 2018 at 10:49 pm

    @lamh36:

    Maxine Waters Finance Right?

    I think she should kick the shit out of Michael Tracey every day. I don’t care if she does anything else.

  88. 88.

    lamh36

    November 6, 2018 at 10:49 pm

    @TheDLCC
    2h2 hours ago
    More
    BREAKING: @Fentriceforfl has won the election in HD63 for the Florida House, flipping the seat from red to blue. Congratulations, Fentrice!

  89. 89.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 6, 2018 at 10:49 pm

    …I don’t actually quite believe we’ve won the House yet, mind you–want to see the individual races actually get called.

  90. 90.

    mdblanche

    November 6, 2018 at 10:50 pm

    @JWR: If it’s any consolation probably the people most disappointed are the Senate Republicans who are going to have to continue putting up with Cruz’s personality.

  91. 91.

    BlueDWarrior

    November 6, 2018 at 10:50 pm

    It seems like the Republicans overperformed the polls in the Southeast (to a fair extent) which blunted any momentum the Democrats had of a decisive win tonight. But outside of the Southeast, Democrats are performing pretty much according to most people’s scripts.

  92. 92.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:50 pm

    @Ridnik Chrome: Ok, so Walker is losing but it’s close and the NYT hasn’t called it yet. Maybe I was premature.

  93. 93.

    Spanky

    November 6, 2018 at 10:51 pm

    And looking ahead …

    Mueller has been at this for only about a year and a half. That’s not so long as these investigations go, yet he has already produced substantial results. There are a lot of unresolved issues still on his plate. It has been a quiet couple of months, but that is almost certainly about to change. Buckle up.

  94. 94.

    mad citizen

    November 6, 2018 at 10:51 pm

    @ChrisS: Looked it up: the 1994 House flip to R’s, they picked up 54 seats. As you say, Dems have a higher margin and are picking up low 30s of seats. Phucking gerrymandering.

  95. 95.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 6, 2018 at 10:51 pm

    @lamh36: Oh my god. Pierce is a gonna laugh himself silly.

    He’s already giggling. Me too.

    Charles P. Pierce @ CharlesPPierce
    Elijah Cummings — House Oversight Committee Chairman.
    Hee, hee, hee….

  96. 96.

    lamh36

    November 6, 2018 at 10:51 pm

    NatashaBertrand
    2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Democrats on the House Ways and Means committee plan to formally request Trump’s tax returns, per @AriMelber

  97. 97.

    opiejeanne

    November 6, 2018 at 10:52 pm

    @Mike J: I took food to HQ in Redmond today because they were still phone banking and canvassing. I might swing by and help them with the clean-up because the joint looks like they could use the help.

  98. 98.

    Ian G.

    November 6, 2018 at 10:52 pm

    @lamh36:

    If Staten Island could kick Donovan to the curb, Long Island hopefully does the same to King. I bet a LOT of people are livid over their property tax deductions going away to fund tax cuts for billionaires.

  99. 99.

    japa21

    November 6, 2018 at 10:52 pm

    Why do people keep saying Walker is gone. He is closing the gap.

  100. 100.

    dmsilev

    November 6, 2018 at 10:52 pm

    So, basically the polls weren’t too far off on both the House and the Senate. A bit disappointing re: the Senate, but taking the House is a big first step.

  101. 101.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 6, 2018 at 10:52 pm

    @Baud: Unless you count Virginia as the South. Dems did well there, a slight overperformance actually.

  102. 102.

    PsiFighter37

    November 6, 2018 at 10:52 pm

    @Baud: We’ll see. We’re not doing as well in NJ House races as I would have thought. Van Drew in particular is underperforming. I think there’s a lot more idiosyncrasies with this election relative to 2000, let’s call it. That’s a bit strange to say, but despite that asshole in the WH wanting to make it all about him, there are just some weird-ass results that make it impossible to say anything other than local factors being responsible.

  103. 103.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:53 pm

    @japa21: I thought it was called, but it’s still close. Sorry.

  104. 104.

    Peale

    November 6, 2018 at 10:53 pm

    @b1narys3rf: we can say the same thing about New England voters, who are still convinced that their republican governors are different.

  105. 105.

    Kent

    November 6, 2018 at 10:53 pm

    @Timurid:

    Somehow Florida is redder than Kansas now…

    Florida is still the south and old Confederacy. Kansas is midwestern. I’m guessing there is some geography involved.

  106. 106.

    dmsilev

    November 6, 2018 at 10:53 pm

    @Ian G.: I think the King in question is the racist Iowa King, not the racist New York King.

  107. 107.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 6, 2018 at 10:53 pm

    @ChrisS: @mad citizen: the Dems need to get some unwonted message discipline and hammer this point even if a reporter in the halls of the Capitol asks them if it’s raining outside.

    @lamh36: Brian Williams is very Concerned about the optics of this

  108. 108.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:53 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Yeah, VA is pretty blue now, and they seem to have a deep bench.

  109. 109.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 6, 2018 at 10:54 pm

    @Peale: I keep trying to tell people around here but they won’t learn.

  110. 110.

    Ridnik Chrome

    November 6, 2018 at 10:54 pm

    @Baud: I hope it holds up. Beating Walker and Kobach would take most if not all of the sting out of losing to Ted Cruz.

  111. 111.

    Platonailedit

    November 6, 2018 at 10:54 pm

    @ChrisS:

    Fucking gerrymandering and big time ball dropping by dems in 2010. Let’s hope 2020 will change that.

  112. 112.

    Death Panel Truck

    November 6, 2018 at 10:54 pm

    At last! We’ve won the House! I’m pretty wound up and need to laugh, so I’m gonna binge watch The Young Ones. Every time Vyvyan slams Rick’s head with a cricket bat I’ll pretend he’s hitting Trump or McConnell.

  113. 113.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 6, 2018 at 10:55 pm

    @Baud: It pleases me because I still consider myself a Virginian by upbringing and family, and it’s nice to see it not be the deep-red hellhole it was when I was a kid.

  114. 114.

    JWR

    November 6, 2018 at 10:55 pm

    @Jerzy Russian:

    Cruz the Ooze.

    Thank you. ;-) But I think I got that from Colbert. BTW did anyone see Triumph the Insulter-in-Chief on Colbert’s show last night? It was LOL hilarious!

  115. 115.

    lamh36

    November 6, 2018 at 10:56 pm

    @dmsilev: nope the tweet I posted is on Peter King

  116. 116.

    mad citizen

    November 6, 2018 at 10:56 pm

    I’ve been listening to an audio tape on the 1920s Teapot Dome scandal–bribes for rights to public oil fields. In the Senate investigation part, and am reminded of all the stonewalling techniques that are used by those accused. Even worse, what happens when Trump claims Exec. priviledge and it goes to the Supreme Court?

    A fun wikipedia page is the list of indicted federal politicians: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_federal_politicians_convicted_of_crimes

  117. 117.

    Baud

    November 6, 2018 at 10:56 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: It sounds like we might be 2-3 cycles away from taking NC from the GOP also.

  118. 118.

    Mai Naem mobile

    November 6, 2018 at 10:57 pm

    My congressional seat just went to Democrat Greg Stanton. Not a pick up – it was Krysten Sinema’s seat but hes a good guy and pretty sure he will vote more liberal than Sinema.

  119. 119.

    japa21

    November 6, 2018 at 10:57 pm

    @Baud: You don’t know how much it pains me to see what he has done to my old home state. But looking at other results, it’s obvious WI isn’t what it used to be. Even if it does elect Baldwin.

  120. 120.

    Suzanne

    November 6, 2018 at 10:58 pm

    Florida, seriously…..what the fuck is wrong with you?!

  121. 121.

    Ian G.

    November 6, 2018 at 10:58 pm

    @dmsilev:

    I want to drink brandy out of both of their gilded skulls.

  122. 122.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 6, 2018 at 10:58 pm

    @Baud: NC didn’t go as well as I hoped tonight, but the potential is there. They’ve still got some terrible gerrymandering going on and presumably they won’t next time.

    BTW, if I recall correctly some districting reform proposals are on the ballot in various states and doing well.

  123. 123.

    david

    November 6, 2018 at 10:58 pm

    TX District 32. Pete Sessions (R) is losing to Colin Allred (D).

    Sessions ran in a race with no Democratic Party candidate in 2016 in a district that voted Clinton over Trump.
    That’s just how screwed up the Democratic Party is down here. So many races are Republican unopposed.

  124. 124.

    Suzanne

    November 6, 2018 at 10:59 pm

    @Mai Naem mobile: STANTON!!!

    That’s good news. He’s as progressive as we can expect in this district.

  125. 125.

    BlueDWarrior

    November 6, 2018 at 10:59 pm

    And now even 538 says you can start calling Nancy Pelosi presumptive Speaker of the House.

  126. 126.

    b1narys3rf

    November 6, 2018 at 11:00 pm

    @Peale:

    @b1narys3rf: we can say the same thing about New England voters, who are still convinced that their republican governors are different.

    As much as I’d like to see them become a second Easter Island tribe, in a fact-based sense *aren’t* they though? Whereas here in round at ends and hi in middle, they’re almost every bit as awful and extreme as they are in any other state. Kasich rode his “Medicaid Expansion” rodeo for years, but that was the only exception I can think of.

  127. 127.

    Kent

    November 6, 2018 at 11:01 pm

    @mad citizen:

    I’ve been listening to an audio tape on the 1920s Teapot Dome scandal–bribes for rights to public oil fields. In the Senate investigation part, and am reminded of all the stonewalling techniques that are used by those accused. Even worse, what happens when Trump claims Exec. priviledge and it goes to the Supreme Court?

    A fun wikipedia page is the list of indicted federal politicians: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_federal_politicians_convicted_of_crimes

    Honestly in my mind it’s not about convicting Trump. Never going to happen with a GOP Senate. Only thing that matters is bleeding the monster with 1000 cuts until he is unelectable in 2020. Keep your eyes on what is important. If Dems managed to take him out we’d be left with President Pence and the mainstream media would get all into a tizzy about making a fresh start with Pence and turning the corner and giving him his honeymoon. And that could be worse than a heavily wounded Trump in 2020.

  128. 128.

    BlueDWarrior

    November 6, 2018 at 11:02 pm

    One the questions that Democrats are going to have to ask themselves going forward is how to regain the ability to win statewide in the Old Confederacy (minus Virginia). Because right now, the only reason this night was not a complete washout for Republicans is the Solidly Red South.

    I’m not sure yet what you need to do except keep banging against that wall until it finally cracks.

  129. 129.

    cain

    November 6, 2018 at 11:03 pm

    Damn, Gillum lost. :( I just hate that a racist won. Gillum was the better candidate.

  130. 130.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 6, 2018 at 11:03 pm

    @b1narys3rf: Every so often you get a Mitt Romney who gets Presidential ambitions and quickly reverts to form. I’m thinking we might see Charlie Baker go through the metamorphosis sooner or later.

  131. 131.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 6, 2018 at 11:04 pm

    @BlueDWarrior: Voting rights, voting rights, voting rights. But we probably don’t have the federal teeth to make it happen that way.

  132. 132.

    Aleta

    November 6, 2018 at 11:04 pm

    I wonder how Michigan’s initiatives for redistricting and automatic registration are doing.

  133. 133.

    Aleta

    November 6, 2018 at 11:06 pm

    @cain: Is it close enough for a recount?

  134. 134.

    mad citizen

    November 6, 2018 at 11:06 pm

    @Kent: Yes, I note Silent Cal Coolidge, who I get the sense knew something about the Teapot shenanigans (not done with my book yet), won election in 1924.

    On another note, I’ve had the ABC nonstop coverage on my tv via YouTube. One of them said something about a poll of Dems (House Dems?), showing they are split on Speaker Pelosi, etc. Depends on the size of the victory. You can never win with these people.

    Just tweeted Jon Karl at ABC asking to explain the 1994/2018 number of Seats changing anomaly.

  135. 135.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 6, 2018 at 11:07 pm

    @cain: Good point, let’s focus on the negative.

  136. 136.

    Suzanne

    November 6, 2018 at 11:09 pm

    Sinema is behind. AAAAHHHHHHHH hold me.

  137. 137.

    Suzanne

    November 6, 2018 at 11:12 pm

    And Stacy Abrams is down by a lot. Systemic polling error? Voter suppression? Some combination thereof?

  138. 138.

    opiejeanne

    November 6, 2018 at 11:14 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Omnes! How are things in Wisconsin? (I’ve missed you but I understand why you didn’t stick around as much)

  139. 139.

    joel hanes

    November 6, 2018 at 11:16 pm

    @Suzanne:

    3 to 5 hour lines have been reported, but only in certain precincts. If you know what I mean.

  140. 140.

    Timurid

    November 6, 2018 at 11:17 pm

    @Ian G.:

    Shah Ismail 2020

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Marv

  141. 141.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 6, 2018 at 11:17 pm

    @opiejeanne: Baldwin won and Walker lost.

  142. 142.

    Timurid

    November 6, 2018 at 11:18 pm

    @Suzanne:

    D) Rigged like a 5-masted schooner

  143. 143.

    joel hanes

    November 6, 2018 at 11:18 pm

    @Suzanne:

    Sinema is behind.

    With a fucking Green third-party spoiler splitting off 2% in a 1% race.

  144. 144.

    Barbara

    November 6, 2018 at 11:23 pm

    I had to leave for awhile because I was getting too hyper. NYT has great state by state format but it’s clear they are holding back from calling a lot of races because, I assume, they are being cautious about calling the house to flip.

    By my count we are at 26 and that is without CA.

    Luria and Spanberger both look like they pulled it out.

    Faso and Tenney look like they are out in NY. (Yeah Delgado!) And NYT is forecasting a Collins loss. Be still my heart.

    It looks like three seats flipped in PA (maybe one more) and in NJ. Fucking Menendez is winning by 10 points.

    As I write, Steve King is behind but still favored to win.

  145. 145.

    b1narys3rf

    November 6, 2018 at 11:24 pm

    Please let it be true what I’m hearing that Steve “White Pride” King of IA is going down.

  146. 146.

    Suzanne

    November 6, 2018 at 11:27 pm

    @joel hanes: Yes, I know.

    However, my Dem State Senator, Sean Bowie, won reelection, as did Dem incumbent State Rep, Mitzi Epstein. And my OTHER State Rep is a new Dem, Jennifer Jermaine. And it is looking like 5 of Arizona’s 9 congressional districts will be Dem.

    Weird.

  147. 147.

    burnspbesq

    November 6, 2018 at 11:30 pm

    Consolation prize: Duke is hammering Kentucky. Up by 24 early in the second half.

    Ted Cruz could take oily lessons from John Calipari.

  148. 148.

    Mai Naem mobile

    November 6, 2018 at 11:30 pm

    @Suzanne: I wish Kirkpatrick had waited to run for Flake’s seat instead of running for McCain’s seat. Kirkpatrick knows how to appeal to the rurals better than Sinema.

  149. 149.

    Bill Arnold

    November 6, 2018 at 11:32 pm

    [silly but on my mind]
    Question: Creedence Clearwater Revival: Who’ll Stop The Rain?
    Answer: It’s a collective effort.
    It has been raining Fascism. Will still be but maybe it will turn into a dreary drizzle now.
    Seriously, the fight against fascism and selfish nationalism has just started.
    And climate change is an existential threat.

  150. 150.

    Suzanne

    November 6, 2018 at 11:35 pm

    @Mai Naem mobile: Kirkpatrick is a snore, though. I don’t think she has a chance statewide.

  151. 151.

    Bill Arnold

    November 7, 2018 at 12:05 am

    @mad citizen:

    Even worse, what happens when Trump claims Exec. priviledge and it goes to the Supreme Court?

    Among other things, leaks, including massive leaks (panama papers, Paradise Papers, and also general open-source investigations. Both of which are newishly more powerful.
    It is now possible to leak without getting caught, if one is disciplined and competent with their comsec/opsec. (And also not-unlucky.)

  152. 152.

    pinacacci

    November 7, 2018 at 12:05 am

    Sorry I haven’t read the comments but I’m in absolute despair as a Florida resident. Fucking DeSantis and Scott, this can’t be right, I feel almost as bad as Nov 7 2016, this is horrible horrible news. How the hell did DeSantis win, he’s so loathesome even my fox loving mom found him disgusting.

  153. 153.

    Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot

    November 7, 2018 at 12:06 am

    @joel hanes:

    Sinema is behind.

    With a fucking Green third-party spoiler splitting off 2% in a 1% race.

    The Green Party candidate here (Angela Green) dropped out of the race a few days ago and gave her support to Sinema. Fucking too little/too late since most votes here are mail-in and over half the ballots are sent in well before election day. I know a few purity pony Greens and frankly I’m surprised they know what a ballot is or how to use one. Fuck these ignorant, Nader-spawn assholes.

    I still think Sinema has this, but it’s going down to the wire.

  154. 154.

    Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot

    November 7, 2018 at 12:09 am

    @Bill Arnold: With you 100% on all of that.

  155. 155.

    Ithink

    November 7, 2018 at 2:43 am

    @??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??:
    Feeling your pain down here in Texas!

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