Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

I didn’t have alien invasion on my 2023 BINGO card.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

I was promised a recession.

Today’s GOP: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Come on, man.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

The GOP couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

No one could have predicted…

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

This fight is for everything.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

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Open Thread: Things Gonna Change

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  3. 3.

    Brachiator

    All right, I’m out of here. Going home, gonna have dinner, watch a movie, relax and avoid anything about this election until Wednesday morning.

    See you all on the other side!

  4. 4.

    Baud

    Per CNN exit poll, 76% said recent political violence was important or very important factor in their vote.

    Um…. phrasing?

  5. 5.

    Central Planning

    Good news from Guam via WaPo:

    The only race of any kind to be called so far on Tuesday came in Guam, a U.S. territory that is 14 hours ahead of Eastern time. There, a Democrat — Lou Leon Guerrero — unseated the territory’s Republican governor, becoming the first woman ever elected to the post.

    Hopefully the rest of the night will go the same way

  6. 6.

    Yarrow

    Posted in previous thread:

    A judge has ordered nine Harris County polling locations to stay open until 8 pm due to delayed opening and problems with voting.

    UPDATE: A state district judge has ordered Harris County to keep nine polling locations open an extra hour: https://t.co/M6qA90Djqy #Midterms2018 #ElectionDay These are the locations: pic.twitter.com/ScMDMPzNnO— Alexa Ura (@alexazura) November 6, 2018

    If you know someone in the Houston area who hasn’t voted, let them know. They may have an extra hour.

  8. 8.

    Schlemazel

    @Baud:
    I just hope nobody expects magic simply because we win tonight. The bastards are going to fight harder and we need to be prepared & redouble our efforts. When things don’t go our way, when some Dem votes on the evil side there will be people proclaiming it the end of the world and both sides are alike. Don’t let that crap go unchallenged. RESIST!

  9. 9.

    lamh36

    Heading into class in bout 1/2 hr…hoping to get our early hopefully hearing good news tonight!

  13. 13.

    Cheryl Rofer

    New York Times coverage is free tonight, if you want to watch THE NEEDLE OF TRUMP!

    Also, 538 has a live blog going.

    I’m gonna read today’s paper for a while. No real results yet, although a bunch of polls are gonna close at the top of the hour. Things should start coming in in an hour or so. Back in a bit.

  14. 14.

    ??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??

    @Baud:
    Me too. It just so happens when more people vote, Dems tend to win. That’s a consequence of having policies that most people like.

  15. 15.

    piratedan

    @schrodingers_cat: i fully expect GOP framing and GOP talking points to dominate the coverage…. that’s what the program directors have mandated and as such, the narrative will be set and adhered to, tyvm…

    One of the failings of democracy began when the FCC began to allow networks to treat news as entertainment and as such, we really don’t see much fairness in the media these days, Faux is a full on propaganda network, as are anything tied to ONN and Sinclair. the old school guys are so busy trying to be Faux Lite that they miss honest reporting and that’s just the broadcast media, places like NPR and the NYT have been co-opted for the most part as well, pretty fucking sad that so many of us have to stagger through endless misrepresentations of policy and repurcussions and plain old stupidity that’s its a wonder how anyone stays informed.

  20. 20.

    Llelldorin

    The early results are always super-depressing, because there’s a reason they’re the early results—they’re states that decided to close the polls at 6pm instead of at a time that someone could get to after work.

  22. 22.

    ??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??

    @Baud:
    Oh. I assume they didn’t break that down in another question? Honestly, that could blow either way. I’ve read plenty of rightists that think all of the violence is on the left.

  23. 23.

    Schlemazel

    @khead:
    There is nothing left to do today, I am scouting for candidates for 2020 and figuring out how I can make any impact then. This fight never ends & the GOPpers never quit.

    I spoke to a guy at work today who has never been involved in politics and was an irregular voter. His wife went all in this fall and spent many hours working for Dems in her district & MN. Her State Rep candidate was so impressed with her personality that she took her along on door knocking with her. She has never been to a caucus hnd has no idea how they or the party work. I told him a lot of stuff and how they should be prepared to go in 2020 and how if she was that well received she should consider maybe a run for city council similar. She is smart & wants to do good

  24. 24.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @schrodingers_cat: They figure they don’t have to worry about the Democrats cutting their funding – they only have to placate the Thugs. If (fingers crossed) the Democrats take the House & come within a whisker of the Senate, someone needs to sit down with those Nice Polite Republicans & let them know they have two years to mend their mendacious ways, otherwise we are completely prepared to cut them off without a cent. Better no “public media” at all than one that pretends to be impartial but isn’t.

  25. 25.

    Origuy

    Possible pickup in KY-6; Amy McGrath has 50.5%. It’s only 5.6% of the vote, but the district includes Lexington and Frankfurt.

  29. 29.

    danielx

    A reminder of what’s at stake, unneeded though it is:

    America’s ideals of freedom, democracy, and justice for all may never have been fully realized, but now they are under open attack. Democracy has become rule of, by, and for the few; and justice for all is available to all who are white and can afford it.

    I used to believe that bit about how demography is destiny. But the fucksticks in charge of the Republican Party have determined that if the only way to maintain their power and policies is, as Malcolm put it, by any means necessary, then….so be it. The likes of Mitch McConnell will not given up power until it is torn from their hands.

  31. 31.

    Yarrow

    First results from FL show Gillum and Nelson ahead. I know, I know, it’s way too early to mean much of anything. Still, would rather be ahead than behind.

  32. 32.

    Tony Jay

    The BBC Election coverage has a line across the bottom scroll showing the number of House seats already called. They’ve got the parties labelled as Democrat and Republican.

    Fucking ‘Democrat’. They piss me off so much.

    Oh, and it’s apparent they are very bored when anyone mentions the State level races other than the ‘interesting’ ones that will “tell them something”.

    And Wilmer gets a D tag when reporting that he’s held onto his Far Northern Demesne, because why not?

  36. 36.

    Baud

    @Tony Jay:

    They’ve got the parties labelled as Democrat and Republican.

    Are you sure it’s labelling the party and not the candidate?

  38. 38.

    Tony Jay

    Though the correspondent reporting from Florida is making a point of referring to the Democratic Party.

    Why yes she is female and brown, why do you ask?

    And now let’s talk to a woman from the Heritage Foundation. Bleauugh!

  41. 41.

    Schlemazel

    @Yarrow:
    My dad was deeply involved in State politics, Central Committee member, Precinct chair, lots of connections. By this time of night he could look at vote total numbers in specific precincts and tell if it was going to be close or who would win. When counts started to come he would look at certain numbers & say “Nope, he won there but not by enough to overcome over here” or similar. He was never wrong unless it was too close to call. I miss that

  42. 42.

    ruemara

    I’m seriously getting angry at woke social media. First they’re bashing Oprah for saying that people died for the right to vote. Now, they’re calling the honest facts of the fight for voting rights as “vote shaming”. How do these people breathe & chew gum? We did nothing better than ignore wokeistan. They’re as bad as Trumpers and it doesn’t matter how much they’re for free college and M4A. Awful people.

  44. 44.

    ??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??

    Fucking ‘Democrat’. They piss me off so much.

    Well, they’re foreigners so they get a pass from me.

    Oh, and it’s apparent they are very bored when anyone mentions the State level races other than the ‘interesting’ ones that will “tell them something”.

    Define “interesting”. If by state-level you mean governorships then all of them are pretty interesting. Or at least most of them. I think 3 or 4 are competitive. I have to wonder if having a different political system combined with being a foreign country is contributing to this.

    And Wilmer gets a D tag when reporting that he’s held onto his Far Northern Demesne, because why not?

    Does the UK not have independents?

  45. 45.

    Yarrow

    @ruemara: How much of “woke” social media is real and how much of it is bots? Both sides are being manipulated to push certain agendas. Here’s an example from the other side:

    Between November 4th and 5th, 40 percent of “MAGA” tweets came from automated accounts. 40 PERCENT https://t.co/FOnCaTiJIH— Mother Jones (@MotherJones) November 6, 2018

  46. 46.

    PaulWartenberg

    All I want tonight is sanity.

    I want Kemp to lose Georgia in spite of all his cheating ways – broken machines? no power cords? This sh-t is INTENTIONAL – and then I want to see his ass in jail for voting rights violations.

    I want Stacy Abrams to make history tonight as Georgia’s first black woman Governor.

    I want Andrew Gillum to make history tonight as Florida’s first black Governor.

    I want Bill Nelson to win so Rick “Medicare Fraud” Scott goes home and ends up in jail for all his goddamn crookery.

    I want every House seat to flip Blue.

    I want Mitch McConnell to lose the Senate Majority.

    I want every Far Right wingnut threatening to retaliate in violence if they lose to all get struck by God’s Mighty Anvil.

    That would bring me sanity.

  47. 47.

    ??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??

    @ruemara:
    Some RW moron called me “woke” one time. I’ve been “woke” since like 2012 because I pay attention.

  48. 48.

    Tony Jay

    @Baud:

    It goes HOUSE / DEMOCRAT 2 / REPUBLICAN 6 / 8/435 called

    I get what you’re saying but it looks to me that that’s how they’re labelling the Parties.

  50. 50.

    Roger Moore

    @danielx:

    I used to believe that bit about how demography is destiny.

    There’s some truth to the idea that demography is destiny; that’s why the Republicans are so eager to control who is allowed into the country. But as the Jim Crow South proved, it’s possible to hold out for a long time against demographic change if you care more about victory than democracy. This is one big reason the Democrats have to push hard for a new VRA; demographics will tell a lot sooner if everyone is allowed to vote.

  51. 51.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    @ruemara: It’s almost like they’re a bunch of humorless contrarian gadflies who enjoy criticizing others instead of working to fix the big social problems they profess to care about!

  52. 52.

    Tony Jay

    @dr. bloor:

    I am British. I’m paying for the BBC. The degree to which they suck offends me at a personal level. And it’s not like they – can’t – do better, they just don’t want to. It’s easier to slavishly copy the worst of US Mainstream media. Access and cocktail parties, don’t you know.

  55. 55.

    raven

    Georgia Secretary of State and Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp received a voter card that said “invalid” when he tried to vote on Election Day.

    Kemp, who went to his home polling place in Winterville, Ga., on Tuesday afternoon, had to go back and get another card after unsuccessfully trying to vote, according to Atlanta’s ABC affiliate, Channel 2 Action New

  57. 57.

    JPL

    No matter what happens tonight, someone needs to campaign against the phony pro-life movement. They don’t even support pre-natal care. Hey I’m pro life and I believe in the right to carry AR15’s to ball fields. It is and has always been a phony movement.
    in the words of that great philosopher efgoldman FUCKEM

  59. 59.

    ruemara

    @rikyrah: How you gonna criticize the people that bled & died for your fucking freedom because you feel guilty for never respecting that freedom as you face losing it? IDC how not right America has been towards POC, it wasn’t as bad as what we went through from the 1800’s through 1970. I love young people but loud and wrong on the internet needs to gain less fame & more derision.

    @Yarrow: Nah, these are real people. Real, loud, popularish and dumb AF.

  63. 63.

    dr. bloor

    @Tony Jay:

    I am British.

    Ah, understood, and understood. Hope you weren’t too offended by my “kicking asses” remark, although we might still find it necessary to sail over if you don’t do something about Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage soon.

  64. 64.

    oatler.

    @Roger Moore: I voted a provisional ballot because OF COURSE they had no record of my registration; plus I dripped sweat on the ballot. But it was nice to see so many young cuties voting.
    Uh, because Youth Turnout!

  65. 65.

    Yarrow

    @ruemara: Quite a few popular Twitter accounts with many thousands of followers have been shown to be troll accounts. Unless you know them be skeptical.

  67. 67.

    NickM

    Looks like Amy McGrath is starting to open up a nice lead on the Republican….fingers crossed.

  68. 68.

    PsiFighter37

    McGrath up 10% with a third of the vote in…hope it holds up! Also looks like Wexton is waxing Comstock – up 13% with half the vote in…probably the first pickup that gets called for us.

  71. 71.

    Tony Jay

    @??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:

    By ‘interesting’ they mean places like Georgia and West Virginia and Florida where they can use the result to “tell the story” of what this means for Trump. What they’re ignoring is the down-ticket races that will define the character of state government going forward. They’ve got no excuse for this, the BBC is used to covering British elections and they are virtually all local elections, small constituencies, lots of them. They – could – cover it better, even if only to explain what it means, but they don’t want to. It’s boring.

    And over here we have few ‘Independents’ and more small parties that only ever win a few seats in Parliament.

  73. 73.

    ruemara

    @Yarrow: I had a debate with one, who’s a middling actress, fame-wise. I needed to understand how or what “vote shaming” is and when I sussed out the very inadequate explanation (you told me how much this cost; now I feel ashamed I spurned it & I’m blaming you); I had to contain my eye laser beams to maintain the civil rapprochement I was trying to do.

  75. 75.

    Cheryl Rofer

  78. 78.

    Mary G

    Expected, but good to see, at least one horrible Republican looks to be going down:

    VA-10 with ~56% reporting:
    Wexton (D) 57.9%
    Comstock (R) 42.1%
    — Michael Del Moro (@MikeDelMoro) November 7, 2018

    ETA: She’s on MazeDancer/Postcards for Patriots map of BJ candidates, so well done us.

  79. 79.

    Yarrow

    @ruemara: Vote shaming as a concept sounds dumb. Either they want to have a voice in the way their community is run or they don’t. If they don’t vote elected officials don’t pay attention to them and their issues don’t get addressed. It’s pretty simple.

  81. 81.

    Barbara

    @Mary G: Those margins were not expected. That is a kick ass result, if it comes even within five points of that at the finish line.

  84. 84.

    Tony Jay

    @Yarrow:

    Oooooohhhhhhh. Be still my heart.

    I waffled a bit about this in an earlier thread, but basically a Democratic victory tonight opens up the probability that a real investigation into the 2016 Election makes political.space for a rethink of the Brexit Vote, because the same networks were involved in screwing with both and scumbags like Aaron Banks are up to their fat necks in it.

  87. 87.

    catatonia

    @Mary G:
    Wexton outperformed Hillary in that district according to MSNBC. Clinton beat the le monstrosity l’orange by 10. So hope that’s a good sign for the other three VA districts flipping.

  89. 89.

    Yarrow

    @Tony Jay: I’m with you and have been saying similar things. I think Meuller’s investigation is going to have an impact on what happens with Brexit.

  91. 91.

    Tony Jay

    @dr. bloor:

    Not a problem. Seriously. You want to come get Johnson and Farage you get in that boat right now. You’ll be doing us a major favour.

  93. 93.

    Mary G

    Re Wexton/Comstock:

    Ballgame. https://t.co/zjYOh0MUwY— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 7, 2018

    I mean, not literally, but there are so few scenarios where GOPers keep the House without keeping Comstock's district in NoVa. https://t.co/Pv51nXfAgw— Marc Ambinder (@marcambinder) November 7, 2018

    Their lips to Dog’s ears, although I always get a bit irritated when everything is called based on the East Coast while we still have more than 3 hours of voting time left.

  94. 94.

    rikyrah

    @ruemara:

    I don’t understand it. People like Lewis got their azzes LITERALLY BEAT in order to get a right for you that you just dismiss?

    PHUCK OUTTA HERE.

    We aren’t NEARLY that far away from that kind of history.

    This didn’t happen to some ancestor GENERATIONS ago..

    This is your MOTHER, GRANDMOTHER, AUNTS, UNCLES….
    You know someone alive who can tell you the stories.

  97. 97.

    Amir Khalid

    I’m reposting a question I asked in a now-dead thread:
    I have been wondering: if Stacy Adams should win, is it Secretary of State Brian Kemp who has the task of certifying her victory?

  100. 100.

    MazeDancer

    Great tweet from HuffPo’s Matt Fuller:

    One of the most puzzling things this cycle is gonna be how much money the NRCC spent on Barbara Comstock so she could lose by 13 points instead of 15.

  103. 103.

    dm

    @Amir Khalid: Yes, unless the courts intervene (a challenge has been filed to prevent him from doing so)

    Kris Kobach must be grateful at the way Kemp has been distracting the country from his own shenanigans.

  104. 104.

    Mary G

    @rikyrah: I smell a disability claim about to happen.

    @Tony Jay: She’s been excited all day about Senate Intelligence demanding documents from Banks

    What a day. Below I list 10 active criminal investigations into the EU referendum. And @nytimes now reporting that Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating @arron_banks' contacts with Russian Embassy. Will of…which people? https://t.co/xiM8r9sSlM— Carole Cadwalladr (@carolecadwalla) November 7, 2018

  105. 105.

    Matt McIrvin

    So far, the early early House returns look to be running close to the polling, which is probably good for us, if not ecstatic good. Spanberger vs. Brat is a nailbiter.

  106. 106.

    R-Jud

    It’s nearly 1 AM where I am and the Benadryl’s finally kicking in. I hope to wake up tomorrow to see that all the work everyone’s put in has paid off. Thank you so much to everyone who’s knocked on doors, written postcards, and more to GOTV this year. As an expat, it’s been difficult to do much more than try to mobilize absentee voters and give money to candidates.

    I wrote a thing, though: “Forget about voting for a better tomorrow. Vote because your blood’s been battery acid since 2016, and it’s time to burn somebody.”

    Go blue. Go America!

  114. 114.

    zhena gogolia

    Oh, hell, I thought I was going to stay away all evening and just come back at 10 and see what heppened. But that’s what I did with the Trump election, and that was a horrible, horrible shock. Maybe it’s better to see it all happen bit by bit.

    I wish I had a crossword puzzle book to keep me calm. I can’t even drink — work tomorrow.

  118. 118.

    MazeDancer

    Whoa – Reid J. Epstein of WSJ answers how much Comstock’s loss cost:

    @reidepstein

    The NRCC spent $5.1 million to back Barbara Comstock in VA-10. That’s more than they spent in any other individual district and 9% of the total the NRCC spent on TV ads this cycle.

  120. 120.

    Yarrow

    @Tony Jay: Farage is in deep with Russia. He’s going to be taken down by Mueller’s investigation. His relationship with Dana Rohrabacher is just one example. His connection with Assange is another big problem for him. He’s toast.

  123. 123.

    ruemara

    @Amir Khalid: I’m truly excited. Even giddy. I felt the same certainty when BHO was the nominee. Bone deep that if he wanted to win, he would. I didn’t get that feeling with HRC, I was just being hopeful that human decency would prevail. I won’t say more, but I am hopeful.

  131. 131.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Dave Wasserman @ Redistrict
    #FL27: Donna Shalala (D) defeats Maria Elvira Salazar (R). Dem PICKUP. This district voted 59%-39% for Clinton in 2016.

  134. 134.

    Fair Economist

    @Mary G:

    I mean, not literally, but there are so few scenarios where GOPers keep the House without keeping Comstock’s district in NoVa. https://t.co/Pv51nXfAgw— Marc Ambinder (@marcambinder) November 7, 2018

    Wait, really? That one was considered to lean heavily towards us this election. The Republicans had basically given up.

    The current tie in KY-06 is I think a better sign of a good, but not great night. That one was supposed to be a “reach” district for us, although not a far reach. So if we are tied there it’s likely we’ll take the House, but not with a massive blowout.

  137. 137.

    FelonyGovt

    It’s too early here to start getting really drunk. I wish it were tomorrow already (although I understand we may not know everything even by tomorrow).

  138. 138.

    Tony Jay

    @Mary G:

    Makes me wonder what else Banks had been up to? I am so jealous that you actually have a serious investigation running under Mueller. Over here there are a lot of questions but the Tories have zero to minus infinity interest in digging into it.

  140. 140.

    The Moar You Know

    @Tony Jay: I’m a pretty dedicated listener of the BBC World Service, and then a few weeks back they started US Election coverage AND IT WAS UTTER SHIT. Can you explain? I was seriously floored. There’s a bunch of shit that they obviously didn’t understand, and didn’t want to understand, and their unswerving commitment to bothsiderism would not pass muster with even the most servile of US media outlets. They frankly seem to like the GOP quite a bit. You could run most of their political coverage on Fox and I don’t think their viewers would notice, save for the accents.

    It was appalling. The BBC seems to, in general, give you folks good bang for the buck in a lot of areas, but Christ, they fail so hard at politics it’s not even funny. So, my question to you: are they as bad at UK politics as they are at ours?

  142. 142.

    Alain the site fixer

    So glad my new congresswoman will be Jenifer Wexton! Now we’ve started, let’s get that Dem pickup number into the 40’s!

    Let’s hope we make inroads in the Senate. Yes We Can!

  146. 146.

    PsiFighter37

    Florida is really tight – now within 1% with 5/6 of the vote counted. Any experts willing to tell me if there’s enough city votes left to offset the boonies in that godforsaken state?

  147. 147.

    WaterGirl

    @dmsilev: Just reading “NYT needed” sent a wave of anxiety through me. Not sure I will ever fully recover from election night in 2016.

  148. 148.

    MomSense

    Aaarrrggghh I hate this anxiety. I don’t know whether to binge double stuff Oreos or lift weights.

  150. 150.

    WaterGirl

    @rikyrah: Tim Kaine and Sherrod Brown. Two really excellent senators. Heaving a sigh of relief, even though it was predicted that they will win. I am just not trusting polls at all this time.

  151. 151.

    Paul W.

    Love you all, and even though I lived on the blog all the time I will be doing my election watching at a bar and in dialykos! Look forward to celebrating here tomorrow though!

  154. 154.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    I am currently making myself crazy watching GA gubernatorial returns. 3% in, Stacey Abrams behind, was around 26%, but steadily rising and now at 37%.

    Which is all nonsense of course. We know the games Brian Kemp was playing with Democratic-majority precincts, so we know damned well that the first reports are going to be from the precincts that had enough functioning voting machines and poll workers, and we know which precincts those are going to be.

    Hence, making myself crazy, for no good reason (refresh, refresh).

  156. 156.

    PsiFighter37

    Beto is only running 5% ahead of Lupe Valdez so far in the early count. Worried that this means Beto is going to lose by a wider-than-expected margin.

  157. 157.

    Tony Jay

    @Yarrow:

    If that slimy frogfaced turd Farage gets nailed and in doing so rips down the curtains on trans-Atlantic collusion with Russia… Yeah, I’ll be drinking to that.

    And if it becomes conventional wisdom that Farage is a treasonous scumbag and Aaron Banks acted as a money-funnel for Russia, Brexit simply can’t happen, it just can’t. The denouement to Mueller’s investigation would just destroy any Government that pushed it through.

    But that’s for the future. Tonight is all about making that possible.

  159. 159.

    mali muso

    Yay, Comstock is out! Been living in VA-10 for some 10+ years and have never been represented by team D. So happy!!!

  163. 163.

    dm

    If you liked the NYT needle in 2016, you’ll love the little graphs to the side of 538’s liveblog.

  165. 165.

    bluehill

    So far 538 showing both parties holding serve in terms of wins in the solid and likely classifications. Probably still too early to make calls on the lean and toss up classifications.

  168. 168.

    ??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??

    @WaterGirl:
    Hey, I wanted to apologize for Saturday night. I’m making personal changes so that stuff doesn’t happen anymore.

    And I wanted to say I did appreciate your advice and I have had trouble translating it into practice sometimes.

  171. 171.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    I’m sure you all have turnout stories. Here’s mine. I just ran into our mayor while walking the dog. For some reason our tiny borough has one. He said the turnout was about 475 out of 600 registered voters. We’ve got 500 in the last two presidential elections. I was number 118 at 8:30 this morning.

  172. 172.

    pk

    I met a girl in 2016 who told me she didn’t plan on voting as it didn’t matter and she didn’t like anyone. She was a very sweet young girl. My only response to her was that I vote because I don’t want other people to make choices for me. When I don’t vote I feel I’m saying that I’m fine with whatever other people decide. Many times my say has no meaning (Trump), other times I hit the jackpot (Obama). I’ve instilled that in my kids.

  182. 182.

    MobiusKlein

    I’m feeling proud: got to see my son working the polling station today, getting a bit of civic pay check. Gets to vote next year too.

  183. 183.

    dm

    @scottinnj: It’s worse, now.

    Probably because the Rs have picked up a couple of lean-R and likely-R, while the Democrat victories are all in fairly safe territory. The model takes those lean-Rs and assumes other lean-Rs will be similar.

  190. 190.

    The Dangerman

    @Baud:

    Yep. Not looking good.

    I’m on Beer 1. It may be the first of many for the night.

    What the fuck? OK, Trump so far hasn’t started WWIII and he hasn’t tanked Obama’s economy.

    Shit, I need another beer.

  191. 191.

    Raven

    @Mary G:
    NATHANIEL RAKICH8:27 PM
    You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.

  192. 192.

    Belafon

    @scottinnj: His real-time meter will fluctuate a lot tonight. I wouldn’t pay attention to it unless you’re looking to have a heart attack.

  195. 195.

    dm

    @dm: And someone in a position to know agrees: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/#3495

    You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.

  199. 199.

    Schlemazel

    @rikyrah:
    The minister that confirmed me marches with Dr. King in Selma & was arrested. The story he told of the arrest & booking were harrowing. It is not that long ago and people who do not vote should be ashamed

  202. 202.

    dm

    Does anyone know what percentage Prop. 4 (Former Felon voting rights) needs in order to pass? I think it’s a constitutional amendment, so needs a supermajority, but I don’t know if it’s 66% or what. Right now it’s at 64% with 66% of precincts reporting.

  205. 205.

    John S.

    I hate Florida. No way DeSantis and Scott should be leading here. People in South Florida just aren’t voting.

  209. 209.

    BlueDWarrior

    538s real-time comp is floating around a 60% chance for Dems to win the House. It seems like the strong showing for Republicans east of the Mississippi is keeping their hopes up.

  211. 211.

    guachi

    So far I have the Dems down about 0.45 expected seats, mostly from massive underperformance in Florida.

  216. 216.

    Raven

    Nate Silver
    ✔
    @NateSilver538
    Well, I’m trying to do 6 things at once — we think our live election day forecast is definitely being too aggressive and are going to put it on a more conservative setting where it waits more for projections/calls instead of making inferences from partial vote counts.

  218. 218.

    Tony Jay

    @The Moar You Know:

    That’s two questions. As to the first I think you hit the nail.on the head with your description of the problems. BBC coverage of US politics is basically the most mainstream, NPR, Republican-friendly bilge you can imagine, and I think it’s because BBC journalists are, a) In awe of US Media and really don’t want to show them up by actually out-investigating them, and, b) Britain is a subservient ally of the US and the BBC is funded by the British Government, politics comes into it. Rock not the boat.

    And yes, BBC coverage of British politics is bad, but in different ways. They understand it a lot better, but the ideological bent at the top of the BBC is very Conservative. Natural party of Government, etc etc. The stunned silence echoing across BBC coverage of the 2017 Election when the Tories lost their majority rather than shellacking Labour was instructive. They really, really didn’t think it was possible and couldn’t get their heads around the public’s failure to understand what they’d been telling them about Corbyn’s ‘unpopularity and unelectability’. There was a brief moment of reflection, then they went back to Labour bashing and promoting unrepresentative centre-right Labour MPs as the only viable representatives of the party. It is what it is, but it’s not good.

  219. 219.

    dm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Fingers crossed, then.

    Don’t despair at Florida yet: the early returns are usually pretty red. It takes a while for the blue votes to get counted. Of 7 million votes cast, the two gubernatorial candidates are only 50,000 votes apart.

  220. 220.

    PaulWartenberg

    @John S.:

    Part of me is wondering if the South Florida machines – I think they use touch-screen, and those are vulnerable to cheats – are rigged. >:-(

    There is NO GODDAMN WAY the polling was THAT FAR OFF on Gillum or Nelson. NO GODDAMN WAY.

  224. 224.

    PsiFighter37

    @Quinerly: This is exactly when 2016 went wrong…when the good-looking early vote numbers in FL turned viciously at the end.

    Racism and getting your huge tax cut uber alles, apparently. Fuck Florida…I hope the rest of the country can start pulling its weight, but I get the sense that it’s going to be another long, and extremely disappointing, night for us. If people don’t care to fix shit when it’s this broken, I have to question if it will ever be fixed.

  227. 227.

    Catfish N. Cod

    Nate said on Twitter that he’s furiously recoding the model in real time because it’s inferring too much from early returns.

    Remember, small rural districts tend to report first.

  228. 228.

    BlueDWarrior

    Models are starting to float back up to over 60%. Still too close, need it over 70%.

    It’ looks like we won’t know anything definitive about the House until we get to the Pacific Coast, and they count slow. So if you have anything for anxiety, I’d start taking it.

  231. 231.

    PsiFighter37

    Jesus, Donnelly is looking in really bad shape – and somehow it seems like they counted all the votes around Gary already tonight.

  232. 232.

    Patricia Kayden

    @Cheryl Rofer: Nice!! Now she can concentrate on her fourth marriage while same sex couples in her county can marry without being harassed by her.

  234. 234.

    cain

    I’m worried about the Senate. Because we shouldn’t lose seats, we should hold status quo because otherwise shit is going down. Also fuck you Florida. I can’t believe we are underperforming in Florida.

    @dm:
    ugh, it’s still driving me crazy.

  235. 235.

    LuciaMia

    So if you have anything for anxiety, I’d start taking it.

    Well, there is that bottle of applejack…

  237. 237.

    PsiFighter37

    @Baud: They probably will, soon. Given the amount of venality it appears way too many Americans have, I think it’ll be a minor miracle if we take the House at this point.

    Going to crack open one last beer and start reading up on how to move somewhere else in the world.

  238. 238.

    Quinerly

    @guachi: It’s a mess. I’m trying to be optimistic but listening to Claire talking right now and mentioning Nelson gives me a sinking feeling. She knows something from her internals. Perhaps knows something from his internals….. Hope I’m wrong.

  239. 239.

    Matt McIrvin

    What numbers are people looking at for Florida? On CNN, it looks like enough of Broward and Miami-Dade are still out that if votes break the way they have so far, they could still put Gillum over the top.

  242. 242.

    guachi

    So far, Democrats have not won any seats where their chance to win was less than 50%. None.

    These results so far are really bad.

  244. 244.

    Mary G

    Ray of light in Georgia, still voting in places:

    BREAKING: We secured an extension of poll hours at 3 sites in Fulton County, Georgia.Pittman Park Rec. Center NOW OPEN UNTIL 9pm.Morehouse: Archer & Booker T. Washington poll sites NOW OPEN UNTIL 10pm.Major victory for voters! Call us at 866-OUR-VOTE for help! @LawyersComm pic.twitter.com/qmhDTjNyP5— Kristen Clarke ☎️866-OUR-VOTE (@KristenClarkeJD) November 7, 2018

  247. 247.

    PaulWartenberg

    OH HELL NO.

    Here in Florida, the voters have Amendment 5 – which requires a Supermajority vote to raise taxes – a 66 percent count right now. It needs 60 percent to pass.

    Say goodbye to any balanced budget, ever. Say goodbye to social services across the board when spending gets slashed.

    I hate this state. I swear to God Florida has got to be the most evil state in the nation.

  254. 254.

    cain

    @PsiFighter37:

    IN-Sen called for Braun. So…we’re definitely not taking back the Senate.

    It’s Indiana, it was a long shot at best. Indiana is a scourge state..

  256. 256.

    gene108

    I tried watching results on MSNBC. I can’t deal with this shit.

    Too nervous

    Especially Florida and some of the Red State Dem Senate races.

    I hope our voters realize this isn’t a sprint and it is not going to be over for many more elections to come.

  257. 257.

    PsiFighter37

    @MJS: True, but I think it’s highly likely that McCaskill and Heitkamp are going to lose. Manchin barely hangs on. I don’t think either Beto or Bredesen win, and I could see us losing AZ and NV as well.

    Just terrible.

  260. 260.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @PsiFighter37: Are you going to be panicking all night? We aren’t going to win everything. The plan going in was getting the house and bunch of governorships.

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