Here’s a nice, fresh thread for you all. Some recount news:
Sinema has expanded her lead to 9,000 votes (+0.5%) thanks to 24K additional ballots reported in Pima County (which is expected to net her a lot). Remember hundreds of thousands of ballots are left. #AZSen pic.twitter.com/aFbuXd42YX
— Taniel (@Taniel) November 9, 2018
I liked Sinema's #AZSEN odds for a comeback yesterday when I saw the relatively low ballot counts in heavily Dem Maricopa CDs. Sure enough… https://t.co/uj16P31Xs4
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 9, 2018
BREAKING: The Florida Senate election has further narrowed. Nelson now trails by only 15,597 or .19%. Counting continues As I said earlier, I expect that margin to narrow further until recount. The outcome is currently unknown, but I would rather be Nelson than Scott. https://t.co/aViug5oGnw
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) November 9, 2018
VBM "completely reported" pic.twitter.com/pO2nW2Okyg
— singal3 (@Singal3) November 9, 2018
To pull ahead of DeSantis, whom he trails by 38,515 votes, Gillum would need his winning margin in Broward of 37 points to be applied to more than 105,000 more ballots.
But there might not be 105k more ballots in the state, & a 37-point margin is unlikely.
But we'll see
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) November 8, 2018
Updated at 9:00 PM EST
To be clearer: as of 2pm yesterday, we thought there were still 100k ballots left in South Florida, because the reported vote to that point didn't seem high enough (given the turnout elsewhere in the state/country)
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2018
It was entirely possible that there were no ballots left. There could also be even more. I know nothing.
What I'm saying: these new ballots are mainly bringing turnout in south Florida into alignment with expectations— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2018
What Nate's saying btw is based upon historical data among factors Broward should have had more votes coming. It's far more likely that this is just regular votes being counted late than that these votes are coming from magic land.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 9, 2018
And my two favorites, one each from Arizona and Florida:
Maricopa County's top elections official @RecorderFontes responds to @AZGOP lawsuit…. #AZSEN pic.twitter.com/jAuRWWvWXs
— BrahmResnik (@brahmresnik) November 8, 2018
Senator, I think you have lost your mind. Delete your account. https://t.co/cR6v7ncrrm
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) November 8, 2018
It ain’t over till it’s over. Also, the manner in which we conduct elections is a global embarrassment! MAKE AN EFFORT!
And in honor of that, here’s Al Murray who will, at some point in this part of his routine, yell MAKE AN EFFORT!
Open thread!
Mathguy
Please, baby jeebus, take down Voldemort. Pretty please.
JPL
truthfully if the repubs want to stop the vote in Arizona right now, I’m fine with that result.
tobie
Do we have any idea how many early votes remain to be counted? Schales says 3-4K, but Caputo suggests there might be more. And then there are the provisional ballots: I wonder how many people confirmed their signatures by the 5 pm deadline today. So many factors at play here.
PsiFighter37
No idea how Florida turns out, since I don’t know how many ballots are outstanding, and from where. If we get to the few thousand or less range, I will think Nelson has an actual shot.
Great news about Sinema. I think she’s going to be a PITA to work with, but since senators have 6 years – that’s a lot of time for demographic change to make Arizona into a real swing state.
Any updates on the close House races? I know there aren’t many left, but it seems like there were still 10-15 that were not yet finalized (including the high-profile ones in CA).
Adam L Silverman
@Mathguy: Elias is a sharp guy. He made a statement earlier today that when this is all done, he expects that Nelson will remain the senior senator from Florida.
tobie
@Adam L Silverman: The second Elias tweet to Silver was a twitter version of a whack on the back of the head. I like this guy.
FlipYrWhig
@PsiFighter37: I have a hunch — of course my hunches have been very wrong before — that Sinema as a Sen. might go on a Gillibrand-like journey from center to center-left (or perhaps BACK to center-left).
lamh36
I don’t tend to buy non-fiction, esp political non-fiction, and I can’t tell you the last time I ordered a hardcover of a book…but this one is already pre-ordered!
I tell you one thing, Chump betta just keep it moving and not bother coming for Michelle O…he ain’t even ready for what will come his way…
Mai Naem mobile
I don’t want to jinx anything so no celebrating over Sinemas lead. Some Republican on the Twitter machine says that the military absentee ballots and the early absentees from the old folks’ areas will be counted last in Maricopa which would favor McSally. I have no idea what order this stuff is counted . We will find out.
Oh,and BTW fuck the greens. Assholes.
Platonailedit
@Adam L Silverman:
Silver’s likely R to lean R tweet doesn’t make sense given what he says later.
Platonailedit
@PsiFighter37: It’s fucking AZ. And you want a ‘real’ librul? Get real.
germy
chris
Recounts and protests too. Hundreds of protests. Way to go, America!
FelonyGovt
@PsiFighter37: Several of the close California House races are still fluid. Not looking great, but Katie Porter, Gil Cisneros and Josh Harder all seem to still have a shot. Looks like Rouda is safely ahead of Rohrabacher. Ballots are still being counted because it was possible to mail in ballots on Election Day itself, also there are provisional ballots to review.
Mary G
The protests seem pretty robust – even in Germany. This whole thread has photos from all over:
Adam L Silverman
Adam L Silverman
@tobie: There was a reply I can’t find now where he flat out said that when all the votes are counted and the recount is completed that Nelson will still be a US senator. Elias does not strike me as the type to make claims that he doesn’t think he can back up.
germy
tobie
@Adam L Silverman: That’s reassuring. Thanks.
Mary G
People near the fire protesting with masks on:
Dorothy A. Winsor
@germy: So what are you and your fellow reporters going to do about it, Andrea?
Baud
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Blame Hillary for not holding more press conferences.
germy
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Mrs. Greenspan has done all she will do.
White & Gold Purgatorian
It was a surprise to check the news Wed. morning and see Sinema had “lost.” Very pleased to find out there were more votes to be counted. Also feeling better about Florida as votes actually get counted.
I’m totally in favor of sending $$ to Florida, Arizona and Georgia for lawyers and recounts, but let us not forget there is going to be a runoff election in Mississippi the end of this month and the Democrat, Mike Espy, will need all help anyone can spare.
Yeah, Mississippi. Democrat. Long shot. But my junior Senator is a fellow named Doug Jones and Espy can’t be a longer shot than that. I’m very thankful to people all around the country, many on this blog, who helped Doug last year. After a decade of loss after loss after loss, it felt so damned good when he won. I’d like Mississippi Democrats to get a taste of that winning feeling too — and for the full 6 year term in this case.
Adam L Silverman
I just put this up as an update in the post:
Adam L Silverman
@FlipYrWhig: She used to be Green Party.
Adam L Silverman
@Platonailedit: Twitter may not be the most optimal platform for getting accurate information out.
Platonailedit
Black. Women. Texas. Judge. Win.
Words that were never before seen together.
Adam L Silverman
@germy: It was a set up:
Platonailedit
@Adam L Silverman: Sounds like lotsa ass covering by these so called professional pollsters.
Adam L Silverman
@Platonailedit: Silver isn’t actually a pollster. He’s a data miner, modeler, and analyst of other people’s polling and surveying. He’s very good at what he does, but like everything else he can only be as good as the data he gets. And we know the public polling in Florida was off going into the election by a few points, we just didn’t know which way.
bluehill
On AZ, local AZ news guy (@vaughnhillyard) was tweeting that another bucket of ballots is going to be announced that should favor McSally, so it sounds like this could go back and forth before it’s finally over.
Adam L Silverman
This is also welcome news reporting:
Mayim
ME-2 likely won’t be decided until next week. Ranked choice voting [a.k.a frugal Yankee version of run off; why pay for a second Election Day.] is in play, and it takes time to count the votes ~ especially as many small towns here still count by hand. We’re the most rural state in the country, so we have lots of smal towns.
But, with any luck, we’ve managed to unseat Poliquin.
Maine has definitely taken a turn for the better this week ;-)
Baud
@Mayim: How is Maine more rural than Wyoming?
Adam L Silverman
Ooopsie!
Platonailedit
NonyNony
@Baud: Wyoming is less “rural” than it is “empty”. Even if you take away the National Park land, you still have just vast swaths of land that nobody even lives near, let alone uses for farming or ranching.
Kent
@Baud:
A higher percentage of the population in Maine lives in what the census classifies as rural areas compared to Wyoming where a larger percentage of the population lives in towns and small cities.
Dan B
@Baud: Or Alaska,…… oh, forgot it’s justeast Vladibearia. With more Libertarians.
PsiFighter37
@Platonailedit: That wasn’t the allusion I was making; it was that Sinema has traveled rightward over her political career, and it seems like she does it more out of expediency. That said, it’s clearly worked – she turned her House district into a safe D one while she was there.
@bluehill: Think we just wait and see at this point. Unless there is solid precinct information about where these votes are coming from…who knows That said, I’d rather be in front than behind as the outstanding vote count dwindles.
Kent
@Dan B: The majority of the population of Alaska lives in Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau. Those are not rural.
japa21
@Platonailedit: Just as important and sometimes overlooked is the the GOP in NC lost their supermajority.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Adam L Silverman
@germy: Here’s an even better one.
Adam L Silverman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: This is funny because it is true!
And I say that as someone who likes Nelson and voted for him every time he’s run for the Senate.
Mayim
@Baud:
Highest percentage of people living in rural areas ~ about 61% here in Maine, according to the Census Bureau.
Vermont is a close second, at 60%. The next two are West Virginia and Mississippi, at about 50% each.
Wyoming is at about 35%. California and New Jersey are the least rural, at about 5%.
I work at the state library, and our rural population has a big impact on service delivery.
Kent
@Adam L Silverman: It’s like they are still all in 7th grade.
Adam L Silverman
@Kent: Remedial section.
oldgold
Florida now has his attention. This is a good sign.
Mai Naem mobile
@PsiFighter37: I don’t think she turned it into a safe blue district. It turned blue demographically and through gentrification of the area.
philpm
@oldgold: Voldemort is doing his best to steal his own Senate election: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/getting-ugly-fast
chopper
@philpm:
so rick scott, the guy who’s government is in charge of making sure the votes are all counted, is alleging that those votes are being deliberately miscounted…against rick scott. is that about right?
suzanne
I never thought I would be rooting for Sinema this hard, since she stinks. But GO KYRSTEN GO.
Ladyraxterinok
What’s with Scott sending cops to recounting places in south? FL?
Sorry if already discussed. Haven’t read comments yet.
Adam L Silverman
@philpm: He’s up against Marc Elias. Elias’s socks are better at this than Rick Scott is.
philpm
@chopper: You win a cigar (or other prize of your choice).
philpm
@Adam L Silverman: I don’t doubt that a bit.
tobie
@Adam L Silverman: @philpm: All this is true…and yet the Republican Party has become so lawless and so unhinged that I wouldn’t be surprised if Scott hatched the idea of impounding all ballots in Broward County via some sort of executive order. I would hope that lands Scott in an orange jumpsuit but that would take time and at this point he and his party are just looking to work their supporters up into a fit.
Mayim
@Kent:
Yup. Norther Maine has large empty forests but in the rest of the state, it’s small ~ very small ~ towns.
Drive through a cluster of a dozen houses, a church [even odds on Unitarian vs. Congregational ~ either will have excellent church suppers], a fire hall, a town office, and a small grocery/large convenience store, plus maybe a couple others ~ library, barber, car repair that’s just about to outgrow a residential garage.
Drive ten or fifteen minutes along a narrow, windy road [with or without a barrier along the edge of a small lake you pas] with occasional houses scattered along the road, then another cluster as above. Repeat until you get to the ocean, New Hampshire, or Canada.
Adam L Silverman
@tobie: It has become very clear, to the point where people who purposefully try to ignore these things, that the Republican Party is opposed to small “d” democracy.
J R in WV
@Adam L Silverman:
This is so obviously true, democracy is now meaningless to Republicans, who want to tell us that we live in a Republic, not a Democracy.
I think part of it is that they get it (the kind of government) confused with the party names. Obviously we can’t be a democracy if their party is Republican, right>?
And you still don’t get to not count votes in an election, even in a republic~!!!~ Got to count the votes, regardless ! They’ve got me so pissed off it’s bad for my health. Is that a tort, lawyer jackels?
Yarrow
@Adam L Silverman:
LOL. Look who he tags in at the end of his tweet.
Yarrow
Scott seems rattled.
r€nato
I was down at Maricopa County election central today helping count ballots (the ones that were not read correctly by the Optiscan machines, the ones where you connect the head and tail of the arrow) when Adrian Fontes gave his mid-day press conference. He did not name the Rapeublicans but he was PISSED about the lawsuit that attempted to manipulate the vote-counting process.
Fontes is a great guy, a Democrat who came out of nowhere to defeat a 28 years-long GOP incumbent whose office was waaaaay behind the times technology-wise and of course made national news by fucking up the 2016 presidential preference primary. He is very open and committed to lots of communication with the public and modernizing the Recorder’s office, including elections. Sadly, I think that the GOP will politicize the next election for this office that was for so long practically as forgotten and inconsequential as mine inspector.
BTW, during the press conference I spotted the long-time lead trainer for the former occupant of the office. I said “hi” and told her I recognized her from previous training sessions. She had absolutely no interest in hearing about it, the woman radiated bitterness. I wonder what useless office job they shoved her off to after her boss lost in 2016.
Mandalay
@Adam L Silverman: I think you have the wrong Nate – it was about Cohn, not Silver.
frosty
Thanks Adam, that was a hoot! Never saw him before, caught about 3/4 of what he said, but it was all hilarious. That poor girl in the front row was a good sport!
frosty
@Mary G: Damn, something in my eye.
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
@White & Gold Purgatorian: Espy was regarded as very sound on farm policy by Mississippians when he was in the House. Given what’s happened to the soybean market this past year, that may count for something.