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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Russia Closes The Kerch Strait

Russia Closes The Kerch Strait

by | 243 Comments

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This is a rapidly developing situation.

Russia illegally seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014. But Russia has no land routes to Crimea that don’t go through Ukraine. So it built a bridge from the closest Russian point, across the Kerch Strait. The bridge was recently completed. The Kerch Strait separates the Sea of Azov, where Ukraine and Russia both have commercial ports, from the Black Sea. Here’s a map:

Earlier today, Russia declared the Strait closed to ship traffic and put a cargo ship across the nagivable channel.

The provocation, supposedly, was the ramming of a Ukrainian tug by a Russian Coast Guard vessel. A couple of unconfirmed pictures of the Russian vessel have appeared on Twitter, but at least one has been shown to be incorrectly identified. Russia has been looking for a provocation for some time.

Now there are UNCONFIRMED reports that a Russian ship has fired on a Ukrainian ship.

That is from the Ukrainian Navy’s Facebook page.

I’ve seen reports that Donald Trump is heading back to Washington early. That’s also UNCONFIRMED.

Ukraine has an presidential election coming up in March. The US and UK are in states of upset. So Russia probably figured it’s a good time to move. More background here from August, and today’s report.

 

 

 

Reader Interactions

243Comments

  1. 1.

    germy

    The provocation, supposedly, was the ramming of a Ukrainian tug by a Russian Coast Guard vessel

    I don’t understand. Russia was provoked because Russia rammed a Ukrainian tug?

  3. 3.

    Davebo

    This business will get out of control! It will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it!

  7. 7.

    Quaker in a Basement

    “Did Russia instigate this? They say no, but maybe they did. No one really knows. It is what it is.”

  13. 13.

    Emerald

    Another reason for the timing might be (complete speculation from someone–me–who knows zilch about it) our lovely blue wave. In just a few weeks der gropenführer will have oversight to contend with.

  17. 17.

    debbie

    @Gelfling 545:

    Oh, he’ll be of great service … to Putin. “Maybe he did. Maybe he didn’t. But I believe in America first and there could possibly be some great deals in my future.”

  19. 19.

    Corner Stone

    @Gelfling 545:

    Don’t know why Trump needs to go back to DC. It’s not like he’ll be of any use.

    IMO, it is much more likely Trump is coming back to DC to fearmonger of the mongol brown invasion from Tijuana than anything to do with Russian aggression. They’ve closed the port of entry in both directions at San Ysidro according to MSNBC.

  21. 21.

    hells littlest angel

    Trump: “Russia has strongly denied they did anything wrong, very strongly. We are going to take a strong look at this situation, and I’ll have a major announcement on Wednesday..”

  22. 22.

    Mike in DC

    Ukraine should mobilize their entire military and call up all reservists. This looks like the pretext for a full scale invasion. Not sure what Poland would do if that happens. While they do have a border with Russia at Kaliningrad, that’s far easier to defend than the entire border with Ukraine.

  23. 23.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Mike in DC: WhoaWhoaWhoa! Russia would need a lot more military in the area for a full scale invasion. And they know that holding Ukraine after an invasion would concentrate all their military there. They worry about China too.

  24. 24.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Ukrainian expert.

  26. 26.

    WhatsMyNym

    and UK are in states of upset.

    I don’t know, it sounds tailor May’d for a certain PM who needs a distraction.

  27. 27.

    Mike in DC

    @Cheryl Rofer: Perhaps. But Ukraine has to assert and defend its freedom of navigation here, and that could lead to an armed confrontation. Which Russia has to be aware of. So I don’t rule out an escalation, based upon what is currently known.

  32. 32.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Hard to say what Ukraine expects. They’re probably just figuring things out, although they should have contingency plans for if Russia closes the Kerch Strait.

  35. 35.

    NotMax

    @hells littlest angel

    a major announcement on Wednesday..

    3+ days from now? That’s incredibly suspicious in and of itself, both because of the delay and because of the identification of a date specific.

  38. 38.

    Frankensteinbeck

    I’ve seen reports that Donald Trump is heading back to Washington early. That’s also UNCONFIRMED.

    The US will do nothing. We will do nothing for Russia or against Russia, except in the sense that someone benefits from our sitting on our ass. We will yet again get to watch Trump be very upset that he’s being told by his staff to make meaningless repudiations of Russia’s actions.

  41. 41.

    Kent

    Russia has a GDP that is smaller than the state of Texas. And other than oil and weapons it basically produces nothing that the rest of the world wants. How is it that the entire western world keeps getting jerked around by them? I mean i get that Trump is a wholly owned subsidiary of Putin. But still. This has been going on for a long time.

  42. 42.

    hells littlest angel

    @Corner Stone: If there’s one thing you can count on about the US response it’s that it will be “strong.” Also: “powerful” and maybe even “vigorous.”

  43. 43.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Trump’s tweet after that one:

    Europe has to pay their fair share for Military Protection. The European Union, for many years, has taken advantage of us on Trade, and then they don’t live up to their Military commitment through NATO. Things must change fast!

  47. 47.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gelfling 545: They’re going to want to brief him in either the “tank” at the Pentagon or in the situation room at the White House. Mattis doesn’t want a repeat of him dragging his “friends” from his club into the SCIF for the briefing. For instance, Ike Perlmutter, like Haim Saban, works for the Israelis as an agent of influence. Though at this point they’re both more informal assets than formal ones. Dershowitz does too, though I haven’t seen any reporting that he went to Mar a Lago for the holiday. If Perlmutter gets wind of US responses to this, he’ll pass it back to Jerusalem and then Bibi will pass it on to Putin. Moreover, by now the counterintelligence folks know which members and staff at Mar a Lago are working for other states; friendly, competitors, and hostile. They don’t want to remove them, they want to keep them in place and monitor them, what they’re doing, who they’re communicating with so they can build the targeting network. If they brief him on something like courses of action for a response, they’ll have to do a counterintelligence disruption and that will give the counterintelligence surveillance away.

  48. 48.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Another pro forma, but necessary, statement.

  54. 54.

    Harry

    If countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia had their oil incomes significantly reduced then they probably wouldn’t be willing to cause problems outside their borders. They’d be struggling to keep things under control internally.

    We have the ability to lower oil demand quickly if we wanted.

  56. 56.

    PeakVT

    @Kent: The weapons are thermonuclear weapons? Kinda makes a difference. Also, Russia has decades (arguably, centuries) of experience in meddling with neighboring states, and the privileged class that is employed to meddle has an interest in continuing to meddle, regardless of ultimate utility.

  58. 58.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Apparently this is the provocation Trump is looking at.

  59. 59.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Full context is needed.

    The Ukraine Navy sent 2 “artillary” vessels and a tug, through the Straights into the Sea of Azov.

    Russia claims that the vessels violated Russian waters and that the Ukrainian’s did not provide advance notice of the vessels passage.

    ( this is a somewhat confusing claim)

    Russian Naval Forces then attempted to arrest the Ukraine vessels which wound up in this “incident”, with the Russian’s eventually seizing the Ukrainian vessels in the Azov Sea.

    In a day or less, if the Ukrainian’s were following Col. Reg’s, somebody will have plotted the Ukrainian ships course, from their transponders.

  60. 60.

    JPL

    @Cheryl Rofer: When was he suppose to leave? Since he played golf earlier, I’m not sure that he is doing anything different. He also took time out to complain that the protesters in France were protesting about the wrong thing.

  64. 64.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cheryl Rofer: Yep, they’re angling for SACEUR moving the Coast Guard training float in the Black Sea onto station immediately while calling for either an Arleigh Burke class destroyer group or a Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF pronounced MAGTAF). The current Marine Rotational Force in Europe is 1st Battalion, 6th Marines – they just rotated in. The Iwo Jima was forward for the recent NATO exercise Trident Juncture accompanied by the Gunston Hall and the New York. If they’re still in the north Atlantic, I’d expect them to be moved on station. If not, I’d expect one of the other Wasp class ships to be moved forward.

  67. 67.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Jay: I agree that full context is needed, which is why I’m not putting much stock in the level of analysis you’ve got there. I am seeing contradicting reports on exactly what happened It does appear that the Russians have fired on Ukrainian ships, injuring as many as 8, and have three ships in custody.

    If you look at the top map in the opening post, you’ll see that Russia claims the sea around Crimea, so when they say that something happened in “Russian waters,” this is likely what they’re talking about. Those claims are not generally accepted.

  69. 69.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cheryl Rofer: Tata was Pat McCrory’s secretary of transportation in NC. He never made it past one star. And he’s a partisan Republican politician. This is not surprising.

  70. 70.

    Mnemosyne

    @WhatsMyNym:

    Kent seemed confused about why a country with an economy as small as Russia’s has outsized power. It’s because they have nuclear weapons. It’s the same reason we tread lightly with North Korea. I didn’t realize this was a controversial statement to make.

  72. 72.

    Jay

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    The Kerch Straights are recognized as an International Waterway and there are Russian waters, and Ukrainian waters in the Azov Sea.

    As far as I know, Russia has not claimed otherwise.

    If it has, then Russia has created a “tit for tat” precedent for other Nations blocking the free passage of Russian Shipping and the “innocent” passage of Russian Naval Vessels.

  73. 73.

    Mnemosyne

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    So, if I understand the sequence of events correctly:

    1. Migrants who are already in Tijuana did a protest march to the border crossing.

    2. The US closed the border crossing from their side.

    3. Mexico closed the border crossing from their side in response.

    4. The US fired tear gas across the border to try and disperse the protesters.

    I admit, I am not an expert in international relations, but firing chemical weapons across the border of a sovereign country seems like a really good way to cause an international incident, if not a few border skirmishes.

  76. 76.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    And by blocking the Kerch Straights, the Russian’s have “greenlit” the Ukrainians doing the same, and provided a perfectly positioned freighter above 58 feet of water.

    Be a good night for a swim.

  79. 79.

    GregB

    All of the dread in the post 2016 to inauguration was warranted.

    We are entering some choppy waters folks.

  80. 80.

    Mary G

    Wow. I didn’t realize that the twit had closed the entire port of entry at San Ysidro. Nobody goes in or out, and that means millions of people are stuck on one side.

  82. 82.

    Mike in NC

    Putin can count on getting a big slice of a beautiful chocolate cake, but only Fat Bastard ever gets two scoops of ice cream.

  85. 85.

    Mnemosyne

    I did a quick Google, and apparently the newly-elected Mexican government denied yesterday that they’ve agreed to the Trump administration’s plan to house refugee applicants on Mexican soil.

    Today the US closed the San Ysidro border crossing.

    Hmmmm. Attempt to force the new Mexican government’s hand before they even take power?

    Link: https://wtkr.com/2018/11/24/washington-post-incoming-mexican-government-gives-support-to-trump-admins-new-asylum-proposal/

  86. 86.

    Kent

    @Mnemosyne: Obviously the fact that Russia has a nuclear arsenal makes direct military action against them problematic to say the least. But the west could be doing tremendously more in terms of economic sanctions and isolation of the country. Russian nukes didn’t make the US roll over to Russian meddling in the elections or in the Brexit vote or the Catalonian independence movement. They seem to have made a calculation that they can just get away with whatever they want and I guess recent history has proven them right. I suppose they were right to fear a Clinton Administration. I imagine the response to this would have been much stronger and more united than what we are seeing today.

  89. 89.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mnemosyne: No. The closure today was temporary and already over. It was the result of a protest march to the border crossing with the asylum seekers demanding to meet with a US official to make a claim for asylum. C&BP closed their side of the point of entry. Then the Mexicans closed theirs. A few dozen, at most, from the pictures, tried to go around the blockade. From the reporters on scene everything is now over.

  90. 90.

    Jay

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    That little blue line up the middle of the conflicting Waters and EEZ claims is the International Waterway. It’s 24nm wide at it’s broadest point and contains two traffic lanes.

    The Russian’s didn’t think this one through.

  94. 94.

    Mike in NC

    Looking forward to 24/7 media coverage of a Big Caravan of unemployed Republican ex-Congresscritters leaving DC. Bad, tough ombres!

  95. 95.

    Mnemosyne

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Too late. Fox News has all of the scary footage they want, and Twitter MAGAts are baying for blood. There will be dead women and children at that border within a week, because Trump’s fans are going to take matters into their own hands.

  96. 96.

    Adam L Silverman

    Any of our Ukrainian speakers care to translate?

  99. 99.

    zhena gogolia

    @Adam L Silverman:

    It’s in Ukrainian. It ends with something like “Agression! We rely on the reaction of other countries!” But I don’t speak Ukrainian so this is just a guess.

  100. 100.

    Adam L Silverman

  101. 101.

    Adam L Silverman

    @zhena gogolia: Sorry, I don’t speak either, other than a few words/phrases, and they sound almost the same to my uneducated ear. I’ll email G&T and see if he can do it.

  103. 103.

    karen marie

    @Cheryl Rofer: Once the Russians started building that bridge, I would expect Ukraine would have assumed shutting down the strait would happen at some point.

  106. 106.

    Corner Stone

    @Harry:

    If countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia had their oil incomes significantly reduced then they probably wouldn’t be willing to cause problems outside their borders. They’d be struggling to keep things under control internally.

    Expect much more violent disruption outside their borders, not less.

  109. 109.

    Gelfling 545

    @Adam L Silverman: So this way they have to wait for him to tweet whatever he thinks he hears in the briefing. Or talks about it on his unsecured phone. I guess that’s something.

  113. 113.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The FSB screwed themselves by releasing that footage.

    It clearly shows the Ukrainian vessels are not acting “dangerously” or “provocatively” and that the Tug is doing it’s best to avoid collisions.

  114. 114.

    Mnemosyne

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Also, at least accordng to the San Diego CBP’s Twitter feed, the San Ysidro crossing has NOT re-opened. We may need some Juicers who get the local San Diego news to tell us what’s going on with that.

  115. 115.

    Corner Stone

    I was once in a local Hobby Shop that sold remote control related items. While literally lighting my money on fire for my son’s R/C car, I noticed the owner had an R/C Tug Boat. I don’t remember the scale but it was 18 or 20 inches long IIRC. I asked him of all the things he sold, why a tug boat? He looked confused for a moment and said, “I sell several of those a year. I don’t know why but people love tug boats.”
    That is my HUMINT contribution to this ongoing dust-up in Kerch Strait.

  117. 117.

    Chris Johnson

    I think this is about forcing Trump to act in the public interests of Russia. He is an asset (which isn’t the same thing as a capable, order-taking agent) and it’s apparently useful at the moment to demonstrate that to the world. It’s ‘yeah, well, we actually also control the United States, what do you think about that?’ from Russia, and the expectation is that the US will not in any sense take the side of Ukraine, or possibly the US will even saber-rattle in the interests of Russia.

    I don’t think there’s any real expectation that the US will come down with military force on the side of Russia, but it’s about demonstrating that Russia’s control of the US is so absolute that its military will not act.

    This might also be saying things about internal United States power struggles: do something before Mueller acts and compromises Russian assets, since that is coming but the Mueller side is deeply committed to not just smashing all the norms and gutting the functioning government (to the extent that’s even a thing). Mueller needs a path where the government isn’t totally destroyed, even though big chunks of it are Russian assets. This has the capacity of escalating that problem, and Russia wants its assets increasingly compromised, sort of on the ‘too big to fail’ principle. They want things obvious, having prepared the ground as well as they can. I think that’s what’s going on here.

  120. 120.

    Corner Stone

    @Chris Johnson: “Vladdy, baby…you can’t be doing this to me! The D’s are a couple weeks away from subpoena power! What am I gonna do? Can you help me get out of this jam like you did in the 90’s?”

  121. 121.

    Jay

    @Corner Stone:

    RC Tug boat’s allow a lot of playing around in the water with just two channels and two servo’s. You can play tugboat. Other RC Boats as limited can only go around the pond in circles.

    It’s like model trains vs racing cars.

  127. 127.

    Mike in NC

    Tugboats usually carry one or two firehoses. Pretty scary arsenal. Maybe the Russians will need to send one of their battle cruisers in response.

  128. 128.

    Jay

    @Chris Johnson:

    This incident isn’t Russia vs. The West, or even The Insane Clown POSus.

    Russia has been “using” provocations and “events” like this for the past two years for short term “gain” and long term losses, against Ukraine, to try to squeeze local concessions out of Ukraine.

  130. 130.

    SamR

    Trump will report that Putin issued a very strong denial, and that’ll be it for the American response. Hope the Europeans are ready to handle this on their own, but I doubt it.

  137. 137.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Geoduck: Mattis and the Joint Chiefs control the information on what military resources are available and what options may be appropriate. If they are unavailable to conduct a Secure Video Teleconference (SVT pronounced civet like the cat), then he has to go to where they are if he wants to be briefed.

  140. 140.

    henqigua

    @Jay(#90):

    It’s 24nm wide at it’s broadest point and contains two traffic lanes.

    ’24 nanometers’; that’s pretty clumpin’ tight.

  143. 143.

    Mary G

    San Diego news station

    With border marches in San Ysidro and Tijuana, U.S. Customs and Border Protection and other agencies announced closures throughout the area Sunday.
    ETA: I imagine that the supplementary road closures are to seal off the area, so that protesters and activists can’t get near the action.
    CBP closed all southbound lanes into Mexico at the San Ysidro Port of Entry at around 11:15 a.m.

    Northbound vehicle traffic processing at the San Ysidro Port of Entry was also suspended, and CBP closed pedestrian crossings at the east and west facilities shortly after.

    Caltrans San Diego announced road closures an hour later. Interstates 805 and 5 and State Route 905 were partially shut down.

    This is gonna be massive gridlock if it’s still going on tomorrow. It’s a big fucking deal.

  154. 154.

    JPL

    @Cheryl Rofer: One of comments was at least 700 pounds of bullshit. I think that number is low. I hope that the situation room is locked and they don’t allow him near it just sayin

  156. 156.

    Chris Johnson

    @Adam L Silverman: I’m not certain he GETS briefed. At some point surely they have to reach the ‘You’re here, sir. No, we have no report. You’re here so we can sit and watch you NOT talking to anybody else of operational significance’ stage.

    How mysterious can it be, seriously? I think it’s obvious to many people that quite a few formerly-outsiders high up in the American government are outright Russian assets. They may even know why (I know I favor the ‘beat up by Russian mob in the 80s’ theory). As such, their FIRST duty is to defend our system of government. Trump really doesn’t represent that system right now, but there are tons of practical reasons why crying ‘J’ACCUSE!’ and freaking out is the last thing anybody will do. There are a lot of people who seem to think if it’s all proven and understood, there will be public denunciations and drama. The system doesn’t really want drama. It wants to process, and cause as little wreckage as possible while doing that.

    I’m thinking right now this is about limiting exposure for how deeply the treason went, and that’s why Russia actively wants to expose its assets by making them take sides. I think it’s too late to increase Russian influence, and it’s beginning to genuinely unravel. Our side needs to unravel the treason as subtly as possible so we continue to look like we have a real government. Past a certain point Russia needs to burn its assets just to cause more chaos and damage, but only after they’re of no more use. Ideally they’d kill off things like the Mueller investigation and just keep operating, but if they can’t do that, at a certain point their best play is to just flip the table.

    This wouldn’t be actually flipping the table, in itself, but it’s happening for both the obvious purpose and to force their US assets to ‘not go quietly’. They can’t be allowed to just skulk off to prison or whatever in a subtle way. Either they retain power, or they must go down in a big messy explosion that does US political damage.

    Bear that in mind if we start seeing hugely exciting collapse of the treasonous Republican leaders. At a certain point the most damage the Russians can do is by burning their assets, and you’ll know that’s happening if the world goes nuts with the news of the treason, counter-revolution, everything blowing up politically. The message will be, all our systems have collapsed and are worthless and compromised, everybody is complicit, everything is over and ruined.

    The American system’s counter-message would be ‘things are going OK, the system works, go back to sleep’. Go back to sleep is actually not good, but the underlying message is ‘don’t panic’ and that is good, and it’s very possible that our system is able to process even all this.

  158. 158.

    trollhattan

    @JPL:
    Good lord, Trump found two guys who can make him look skinny by flanking him. Melania thought bubble: “Loookk, tree fit fooks!”

  159. 159.

    PJ

    @SiubhanDuinne: Doesn’t “national security” mean that Trump gets a big parade down Constitution Avenue whenever he is feeling not loved as much as he should be?

  161. 161.

    zhena gogolia

    @Adam L Silverman:

    It’s translated online as:

    Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, with the help of special means, got access to a video of provocation – Russian coast guard ship “Don” ramming Ukrainian ?? vessel.

    Intercepted video is taken by the RF, commands heard. That will stand as a prove to the international court!

    Aggression!

    Let’s stand together and anticipate reaction of friendly countries!

    Friends from Near and Far Abroad – Do you really support Ukraine? I ask you not to confine on inquietude only. Action is required!

  163. 163.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Adam L Silverman: I started to translate it, then realized it was just an old Yakov Smirnoff joke:

    A funeral procession is going by, and they’re walking a goat behind the coffin. A guy comes over and says, “Why are you walking a goat behind the coffin?” The other guys says, “That goat killed my mother-in-law.” The first guy says, “Can I borrow this goat for a week?” The second guy says, “You see all these people in the procession? They’re all waiting. Get in line.”

  164. 164.

    Yutsano

    @JPL: I appreciated the “I’ll take the over” comment right after.

    Also: he looks TERRIBLE. And why does someone in the epitome of health wear a patch?

  169. 169.

    cain

    @Mnemosyne:

    I admit, I am not an expert in international relations, but firing chemical weapons across the border of a sovereign country seems like a really good way to cause an international incident, if not a few border skirmishes.

    I suspect that sanctions will be coming forthwith. The U.S. could also lose access to Mexico’s cheap labor force. If I were Mexico, I would deal with this very harshly forcing Pompeo to do a lot of ass kissing. Of course, Trump will exacerbate the situation and that should also be part of the plan. The fool is predictable. He won’t back down and you can bet more things will go topsy turvy for american businesses looking to sell their goods.

  170. 170.

    ??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??

    @Cheryl Rofer:
    @Jay:

    I guess that makes sense? It’s just based on my admittedly limited readings, declarations of martial law are followed by power grabs. They’re not usually good things.

  173. 173.

    ??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??

    @zhena gogolia:

    and us

    By “us”, do you mean the Russian-compromised sections of the US government or do you mean the “legitimate” government?

  186. 186.

    ??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??

    @zhena gogolia:
    I guess I was trying to ask if you were placing partial blame on the American foreign policy establishment that has been around for decades. My understanding is that the majority of Ukraine does not want to be just another Russian state and Russia is aggressively violating their sovereignty. The West is attempting to stand up for the Ukrainian people’s right to self-determination. Also Russia started it by installing puppets in Ukraine.

  188. 188.

    jl

    Crap. Much of the world is being run by brutal incompetent shitheads right now. i heard a report on news yesterday by historian about US and Russian leadership during last days of Watergate. Nixon was shift face drunk and politically crippled due to his own crimes, and Brezhnev was zoned out on pills and booze, hiding in of his dachas out in the birch forests, he sounded so deep in self-medication that it’s a wonder he made into the 1980s.

    I guess that should make me feel better, that we have been here before and we survived. But it doesn’t.

    In the meantime, how the hell does Trump get away with sealing the border? Why hasn’t someone gone to court to try to get an injunction? IANAL, so don’t know if that is possible. Can we add it to his bills of impeachment?

    And I heard news report that Pentagon is starting the freak out because the moron Trump wants more best and top classy US military, but GOP mumbling about cutting funding due to an unfortunate and totally hoocoodanode exploding budget deficit that no one say coming.

    Crap. Much of the world is being run by brutal incompetent shitheads right now.

    What’s the patch Trump is wearing? Or is it a band aid?

  190. 190.

    Mike in NC

    @JPL: I guess if you were to visit any random golf course in Florida, you could easily find three fat white guys.

  194. 194.

    JPL

    @debbie: It’s apparent that trump could care less about Ukraine. The idea that he left his resort early to monitor the situation is bull.

  195. 195.

    jl

    @JPL: Putin has a low bar for BS stories to tell Trump, given how Trump handled the Saudi murder of Kashoggi.
    I guess Trump can say to US media “I’ll tell you, Russia had a much better cover up story, I’ve done better for some of my scams, to be honest, but Russia is much better on cover up story. They didn’t botch it like the Sauidis did. So we have to go with that. What can we really know for sure about anything?”.

  197. 197.

    debbie

    @jl:

    I know they aren’t a full member — Russia got in the way — but I’ve assumed there’s some sort of “special” relationship.

    @Jay:

    Thanks.

    @JPL:

    I bet he’s got an early bedtime tonight. Aren’t they fitting in two rallies in Mississippi tomorrow?

  198. 198.

    Jay

    @??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)  ??:

    “My understanding is that the majority of Ukraine does not want to be just another Russian state and Russia is aggressively violating their sovereignty. The West is attempting to stand up for the Ukrainian people’s right to self-determination. Also Russia started it by installing puppets in Ukraine.”

    As ususal, it’s a lot more complex than that.

  199. 199.

    jl

    @debbie: I don’t believe so. NATO membership is not far enough along for even a preliminary agreement. No formal plan has been negotiated for Ukrainian entry process.

  200. 200.

    Jay

    @debbie:

    Ukraine and the EU were working on an Assention Agreement which would open up trade with the EU and lead to eventual EU Membership and a gateway to joining NATO.

    Unfortunately, the cost to the Ukrainian Economy and his favoured Ogliarches was too high, the EU tried a last ditch bailout deal but Maiden coup’ed Yanukovich before he could agree to the deal.

    NATO does not have a “special” relationship with Ukraine but several NATO Member Nations have undertaken commitments to provide aid and training to the Ukrainian Military.

  202. 202.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Jay:

    but Maiden coup’ed Yanukovich before he could agree to the deal.

    Nice revisionist history.

    It’s “Maidan,” which was a mass popular uprising. Yanukovych, after giving orders that led to the shooting and killing of protesters, saw that his position was becoming untenable and fled to Russia.

  206. 206.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Jay: I know they aren’t. I know the video is everywhere. Please don’t take me for an idiot.

    I’m clarifying a linguistic issue.

  207. 207.

    Dan B

    @Dan B: I know from having spent quite a few outpatient visits getting IV antibiotics from an anxious kitty’s fang attack.
    (Not implying that Melanie is / has…)

  208. 208.

    Dan B

    @Chris Johnson: Thanks for this analysis. I’ve been bouncing between seeing a few fall guys (gals) locked up and a few hundred (thousand?) Russian assets* sent upriver or exiled.

    Having enough of the peeps publically convicted and the rest on berry short leashes would be good.

    *most of the GOP at this point? How do you clean that up?

  211. 211.

    Chris

    @jl:

    I always thought the early 1980s must have been the most objectively dangerous moments in the Cold War – both superpowers run by a senile nationalist hard-liner. I suppose Nixon in the Watergate years was the 1.0.

  212. 212.

    Jay

    @Dan B:

    By digging deep into the rot, day after day, year after year.

    Unfortunately, the perception that things are Rotten in ( not Denmark), is a minority position.

  215. 215.

    Jay

    @Chris:

    Both senile nationalist hard line leaders were surrounded by moderating influences and realpolitik practioners, along with military leaders that were sane.

    Now,……. however,…….

  216. 216.

    Jay

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I live in a country that has three founding nations and two official languages. They are also semi-regionally segregated and have different visions for the country and different views of the outside world.

    Playing one off against the other for short term gain hasn’t worked out well and has left lasting resentment and distrust.

    Unlike Ukraine, we have had far more politicians who have tried to include everybody for long term gain for the country, than divide people for short term political gain.

    Something you should consider given your own countries Russia backed “Party of Regions” and their supporters.

  218. 218.

    Gin & Tonic

    I see I was mentioned upthread, but I was busy entertaining my grandkids.

    As was noted already, the audio on that video is approximately what you’d expect from sailors of any nationality. The Tweet from the Ministry of Internal Affairs is reasonably well-translated in the machine version noted by zhena gogolia, but I’d say the ending is not “anticipate the reaction of friendly countries” but “await the reaction…” That line about inquietude is something I’m not finding anywhere – don’t know where that crept in.

    Many people in Ukraine are anticipating that Verkhovna Rada (the parliament) will in fact approve the declaration of martial law in the morning. First batch of military reservists have already been called up. There are many facets to this, events are moving quickly and a lot of people aren’t getting much sleep. While I don’t anticipate any news in the next couple of hours, I’ll try to provide some kind of update in the morning.

  219. 219.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Jay: I’ll note that Canada has not been the subject of forcible occupation by hostile neighbors for the last 800 years, and does not share a 1500-mile border with a hostile military power which has subjected it to ethnic cleansing and genocide within living memory, and which has invaded it and annexed its territory in this century. But other than that, I guess you have a point.

    Enjoy your pie.

  220. 220.

    Corner Stone

    @Jay: This is pretty stunning, actually. I mean, I guess it shouldn’t be. But did you really just conclude with the suggestion that Ukraine should reconsider its positions based on having a Russian influenced bloc of political power?

  223. 223.

    Jay

    @Gin & Tonic:

    We also reside within our own borders and are not a cobbled together collection of 18th Century Former Empire chunks, and a product of the largest border changes, genocides and ethic cleansing since WWI.

    Russia’s economic warfare in the Sea of Azov can’t be broken by Ukraine.

    I like pie.

  224. 224.

    Mnemosyne

    @Jay:

    Uh, you realize that G&T is Ukrainian-American, still has lots of family there, and speaks/reads the language?

    I’m pretty sure he has a much better grasp on what’s going on inside Ukraine than the vast majority of North Americans. Including you.

  225. 225.

    Jay

    @Corner Stone:

    The reversion to the 2004 Constitution and new Elections had already been passed by the Rada, along with the release of Tymonshenko (sp), and Investigations into the previous elections and the shootings of protestors. Almost all of the “Security Heads” were dismissed.

    Then the Party of Regions members were attacked, beaten and some killed, and fled, even some who had voted for the reforms.

    Wiki has a nice clear timeline.

    The reason Ukraine has seesawed between pro-Russian Parties and pro-Western countries is because Ukraine is split between Western Ukrainians, Eastern Ukrainians, and a dozen other minorities from Poles to Romanians.

    Over the years, Ukranian politicians and the Ogliarches have leveraged ethic, language, customs and world views to create greater division for short term political gain.

    Deciding to respond to the anti-Maiden protests in the East, with the same military tactics as the Yanukovich Government wasn’t that sucessful was it?

    Trying to enact legislation banning Eastern Ukrainian language, education and culture, as one of the first acts of the Rada didn’t work out well, did it?

    Appointing rabid “pro-Western” Western Ukrainian Governors and Western Ukrainian Ogliarches to the eastern Oblasts, didn’t work out well, did it?

    How’s Shashkavilli doing these days?

    But that kinda states the divides in Ukraine, and how deep the differences, resentments and anger goes.

  226. 226.

    Mnemosyne

    @Jay:

    Well, let me think. I can believe G&T, a guy who speaks/reads Ukrainian and has connections there, or I can believe you, random Canadian guy on the Internet who gets his information about Ukraine from Wikipedia and Russia Today.

    Yeah, not a tough choice.

  227. 227.

    Jay

    @Mnemosyne:

    And my wife’s Ukrainian-Canadian/Metis with family still in Ukraine.

    But they are Eastern Ukrainian from the Ukraine SSR who got out after WWI, not Austro Hungarian Ukrainians from Eastern Galacia who arrived after WWII.

    That’s why in town we have 3 different Ukrainian Cultural Centers and 3 different Ukrainian Churchs in a town of 36,000, and 2 of the groups have nothing to do with each other.

  229. 229.

    Mnemosyne

    @Jay:

    Ah, yes, the old I married an (X), so therefore I now understand all of the cultural nuances by osmosis.

    And since they left after World War I and before the formation of the Soviet Union, they’re experts on current events in post-Soviet Union Ukraine because …

    Oh, and feel free to say something rude in Ukrainian. G&T has you pied, but zhena gogalia can probably do a rough translation since she speaks Russian fluently, what with being a professor of Russian literature and all.

    Still sure you want to insist that you’re totally more expert than anyone else here because your wife knows a few phrases in Ukrainian even though her family left there 100 years ago?

  230. 230.

    Chris Johnson

    @Dan B: Most of the Republican party are drunk on their own kool-aid and used to the tactic of zigzagging wildly for political benefit (for instance, deficits are TEH EVULS when Dems are in power, but when Republicans are in power you never speak of them, just run up the tab: which is actually not such a problem if the GDP keeps pace with the expansion of the money, but the point being, they fake being super worried about it to hamstring the Dems)

    Most of the Republican party are not directly Russian assets. I think it’d be more in the high hundreds than the thousands. It’ll include super-significant actors like McConnell, Bolton, Pence, Trump. The ones NOT actually Donald Trump will be more the straight-up traitors. Running Donald Trump as a Russian asset is awkward but obviously worthwhile, because the hold they’ve got on him is something darker and deeper and more personal, and he’s not smart or coherent enough to serve or obey anybody ever. So it’s a path of manipulation and coaxing/influencing, because unlike say a Bolton, Trump doesn’t have ambitions that can coincide with Russian ambitions. He’s just a soggy-brained narcissist who can’t be trusted, so managing Trump is about swaying or bullying him (he’s clever enough to avoid public shaming, and that’s part of it)

    Might be many thousands more Russian trollskis working all over the world, including at home. They may actually be real busy around about now.

    There’s also a whole gray area re: Russian agents, for instance guys like Ryan able to tell groups of Congressmen, “This guy and this guy and Trump are totally run from Moscow, and DON’T TELL ANYBODY. Keep it within the family and we’ll all get what we want”. It’s not that they’re all witting agents to Russia. It’s that they’re all drunk on their own wingnut kool-aid, have always been profoundly influenced by their own rantings and ravings, and that’s a mighty common affliction in Washington DC.

    What Russia has done in some cases like with the NRA, is doctor the kool-aid. These guys were already propagandizing themselves. Russia took advantage of several openings such as a shared dislike of progressive social mores, and started changing the mix that Republicans were dutifully dosing themselves with. Now it becomes more and more clear that this happened, and you’ll find a lot of Republicans doubling down because they’ve been conned, and because they’re discovering that the Russian authoritarians are pretty similar to their own chosen authoritarians, after all. Some of them will definitely end up swearing up and down that Russia is the REAL America, and that’s where their loyalties should lie.

    This doesn’t mean they were Russian agents all along, it means that when the smoke cleared, they decided their love of authoritarian leaders was more important than their love of country. The ones actually owned by Russia directly are WAY outnumbered by the ones drinking the kool-aid.

  231. 231.

    Ruckus

    @Chris Johnson:

    The ones actually owned by Russia directly are WAY outnumbered by the ones drinking the kool-aid.

    Is this a distinction without a difference? IOW the effect is the same, the cost was less, which really isn’t important to the victims. And the clean up is the same as well, but possibly fewer in jail. But then maybe not, if the crime is effectively the same, paid or not.

  233. 233.

    Jay

    @Mnemosyne:

    LMFAO.

    We have what we call the Bandara Center as one of the Ukrainian Cultural Centers. They rent space to Nazi’s. That one’s post WWII.

    We have the Russian Orthodox Center. That one’s from the 1930’s and the famine.

    Then we have the Mennonite Center that’s not Mennonite anymore, it’s just where you go for a good time free of the politics and grudges of Ukraine.

    Then there’s the three Churchs, Mennonite, Russian Orthodox and Catholic.

    I became interested in Ukraine divisions, history and internal conflicts when Croatian Canadian Nazi’s started killing Canadian Peacekeepers in Bosnia. In the process of researching their roots, it turned out that in the 1950’s Canadian Ukranian Nazi terrorists were also killing Canadians and Soviets in Canada.

    But hey, I’m Canadian, we don’t tear gas refugee children at the border.

    Wasn’t a great political move by Porshenko to invite the former President of Georgia, wanted for corruption, who picked a losing war with Russia, to be Governor of Odessa Oblast?

    Worked out so well didn’t it?

    I’m sure the ATO’s going to result in sucess any day now. ( snark)

  235. 235.

    Mike in DC

    If Ukraine is really calling up reservists, then they are at least preparing for the worst. A last resort, I suppose, would be organizing “citizen battalions”(effectively, partisans), equipping them with small arms and giving them de minimis training(4-6 weeks), and emplacing them in various urban areas so that all of the regulars can be sent to the battle front. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Poles shipping weapons and advisors across the border as well. It’s not great that Ukraine is still plagued by official corruption, but they are a sovereign nation with the right to defend their own territory, up to and including the right to remove by force anyone illegally occupying said territory.

  236. 236.

    Jay

    @zhena gogolia:

    There’s lot’s of things I can’t spell, colour, labour,

    There’s words I can’t pronounce, like aluminum

    There’s also autocorrect on a cell phone with a spotty cell phone signal from living in the mountains.

    I can spell Saakskavilli, but only through decades of practice.

  237. 237.

    Gin & Tonic

    As of about 15 minutes ago (0545 Kyiv time) Ukraine’s armed forces announced that they were at their highest state of alert/readiness.

  239. 239.

    Jay

    @Mike in DC:

    Nope. It’s mostly theatre.

    Since the spring, Russia has been using the “both sides” clause of the 2003 Azov Sea Treaty, to board, search but mostly delay Ukranian commercial shipping and fishing in the Azov Sea.

    It’s a means of economically pressuring Ukraine.

    Ukraine has small patrol boats and 2 small Naval vessels (shipped overland) to counter the pressure.

    https://www.rferl.org/amp/sea-of-troubles-azov-emerging-as-tinderbox-in-russia-ukraine-conflict/29417753.html?__twitter_impression=true

    In September, Ukraine moved two more substantial Naval vessels through the Straights and it seems, they caught the Russian’s napping.

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2018/09/25/ukrainian-warships-break-russian-de-facto-blockade-in-azov-sea-to-create-naval-base/

  241. 241.

    Jacel

    @germy:

    I don’t understand. Russia was provoked because Russia rammed a Ukrainian tug?

    This brings to mind the time that Dick Cheney shot a friend in the face and the injured friend wound up apologizing to Cheney.

  242. 242.

    Jay

    @zhena gogolia:

    LMFAO,

    Don’t have a Russian Usurper as my PM,

    Don’t have a Russian controlled “Party of Regions” in the Senate.

    Yeah, Doug Ford, but the rot don’t go so deep, so far.

  243. 243.

    Jay

    @Mnemosyne:

    Lets see, we have Trudeau, you have Trump,

    LMFAO

    Rational people might think that counts for something,

    But y’all aint rational are yoose,……

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