Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

President Biden is doing good where he can, and getting it done.

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

Bark louder, little dog.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, it’s door #2)

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

Somebody needs to explain to DeSantis that nobody needs to do anything to make him look bad.

When we show up, we win.

So many bastards, so little time.

People are complicated. Love is not.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

I really should read my own blog.

“But what about the lurkers?”

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Giving up is unforgivable. ~Joe Biden

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

The words do not have to be perfect.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

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Archives for November 2018

Voting Fraud Questions in North Carolina’s 9 Congressional District: Republican Representative Elect Edition

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It appears something squirrelly may have been afoot during both the Republican primary and the general election in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District. Michael McDonald, a specialist on voting from the University of Florida’s Department of Political Science (my former professional home), kicks things off for us:

WSOC TV Channel 9’s Joe Bruno picks up the thread for us. His article/reporting is first and then a hunber of his tweets with images of the affidavits he’s collected.

BLADEN COUNTY, N.C. – Channel 9 has obtained several affidavits out of Bladen County, North Carolina, voicing concerns about how the U.S. House District 9 race in November was handled.

Witnesses who signed the affidavits claimed a known player in the county’s political circles and an electioneer was also working for the Mark Harris campaign.

One of those sworn affidavits claims that man, Leslie McCrae Dowless, Jr., would receive a $40,000 bonus from the Harris campaign if Harris defeated Democrat Dan McCready.

Another affidavit said Dowless was “doing absentee” for Harris. The document claims Dowless said, “You know I don’t take checks. They have to pay me cash.”

Another affidavit points to workers going to voters’ doors to collect absentee ballots. One voter said a worker told her she would finish the voter’s ballot for her. Both acts would be illegal.

North Carolina’s Elections Board delayed finalizing the results Tuesday of the close U.S. House race, as officials appear to be scrutinizing potential wrongdoing within the 9th Congressional District.

Board members voted unanimously to certify the final tallies in nearly all of the elections held earlier this month but didn’t sign off on the 9th District, as well as a handful of other races subject to protests or recounts.

More at the link! Affidavits below the jump.

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Accidentally Like a Martyr

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Some nutcase named Laura Loomer has donned a yellow star and handcuffed herself to Twitter’s New York headquarters because she was banned for accusing Congresswoman-Elect Ilhan Omar of supporting sharia law. Omar was recently elected to Keith Ellison’s old seat in Minnesota.

If you watch the Periscope livestream you’ll see that the police would probably be well within their rights to perform what we New Yorkers call a Mental Hygiene Arrest. But I’m not a professional and it is happy hour, so perhaps we can just enjoy the fact that she only chained herself to one of the two doors and Twitter employees are heading home while she stands there blabbing about Ilhan Omar being a jihadi.

Open thread.

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And now for some depressing news

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Two new reports came out. Both are depressing.

First, lifespans in the US continue to decrease. The big drivers are suicides and drug overdoses.

Secondly, fewer kids were insured in 2017 than in 2016.

I anticipate that 2018 and 2019 numbers will see fewer kids insured than 2017. Public charge rules and more complicated paperwork barriers to Medicaid and CHIP will lead to enrollment drop-offs from public programs.

These are outcomes of choices that we make.

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Thursday Afternoon Open Thread

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Here’s a limpkin looking for apple snails by the river’s edge:

It got a big honking snail a few minutes before I took this shot and scurried off into the vegetation with it. I saw a pair of limpkins near this spot escorting some downy younglings along the bank a few days back. The little ones looked exactly like mallard ducklings, only with extra-long necks. Anyhoo, I suspect it is hustling for snails to feed the family.

This is the greatest spot for birding I’ve even been in, let alone lived in. That same limpkin was foraging next to three other species earlier: a little blue heron, an ibis and a tricolored heron.

Last night when we were sitting on the porch, we kept hearing barred owls calling all around us, and then one swooped down right across our field of vision in pursuit of a small critter that was shrieking in terror. I think the prey got away, but it was very close.

It’s a bit chilly here today by our standards — lows in the mid-40s and highs in the low 60s. The mister works outdoors, so I’m making pot roast to knock the chill off. (I’ve forgiven him for forgetting my Pepcid the other day.)

What’s going on in your neck of the woods? Any predictions on which shoe will drop next off the Trump-Russia millipede? Feel free to discuss whatever — open thread!

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Trump flips on…Trump

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As we now know, Michael Cohen lied when he testified before Congress that the Trump Tower Moscow project ended in January 2016. Via The Post:

In a nine-page filing, prosecutors laid out a litany of lies that Cohen admitted he told to congressional lawmakers about the Moscow project — an attempt, Cohen said, to minimize links between the proposed development and Trump as his presidential bid was taking off.

Cohen falsely said efforts to build a Trump-branded tower in Moscow ended in January 2016, when in fact discussions continued through that year, the filing said. Among the people Cohen briefed on the status of the project was Trump himself, on more than three occasions, according to the document.

Cohen now says he pursued the Moscow project until the summer of 2016 and interacted with Putin’s office during that period. Here’s Trump’s response to this development from a short while ago:

Shorter Spanky: “I didn’t do it, but even if I did, it wasn’t wrong.”

I think the paper Trump is referring to in that clip — the document he says proves the deal was out in the open — is the proposal Cohen attached as an exhibit in his appearance before Congress, during which he now admits he lied. So, Trump is trying to create a smokescreen here. Nobody is saying the deal was 100% secret all along; the point is, Trump and Cohen lied about when the project ended.

Why? Because they’re guilty as fuck. A lot of “collusiony” things happened during the late spring and summer of 2016, including Cohen’s discussions with Putin’s assistant about setting up a meeting between Putin and Trump after the RNC, the pro-Russia change to the GOP platform (the sole change the Trump people requested at the RNC), the Trump Tower meeting with the Russians offering dirt, the conversations between Stone, Corsi, an intermediary and Assange, etc.

It looks damning because it IS damning. They’re lying because they’re guilty. And Cohen’s plea document hints that there’s plenty of evidence to corroborate his contacts with the Putin regime and Trump principals that summer.

Trump’s statement above was made as he was boarding Marine One on his way to the G20 summit in Argentina. He was originally scheduled to meet Putin there, but moments ago, Trump claimed he cancelled that meeting to protest Russia’s seizure of Ukrainian ships:

Based on the fact that the ships and sailors have not been returned to Ukraine from Russia, I have decided it would be best for all parties concerned to cancel my previously scheduled meeting in Argentina with President Vladimir Putin. I look forward to a meaningful Summit again as soon as this situation is resolved!

What a load of horse shit — he doesn’t care about the Ukrainian ships any more than he cares about the Saudis’ murder of a US-based journalist who worked for The Post. Trump is afraid of being exposed.

This is a surreal shit-show, friends, and I am so ready for the fucking credits to roll.

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Add another plea deal

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Let’s see what else shakes loose today and tomorrow.

Update 1 Here is the information that Cohen is pleading guilty to (hosted by Lawfare)

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Popularity and rough edges

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The Kaiser Family Foundation just released their Health Tracking poll for November.  The ACA is increasingly popular.

 

What is driving that popularity?  We know that the ACA got more popular in 2017 as people were faced with potentially losing the good things that the ACA does due to Repeal and (maybe) Replace.  But it is also an indicator that a lot of rough edges of the consumer/public facing experience have been smoothed off in the past two years:

 

Greg Fann, an actuary makes this point very clearly:

 

There are still a few significant rough edges of the ACA experience remaining are:

  • Medicaid expansion in hold-out states
  • 401% FPL and above affordability problem
  • Family Glitch

The ACA is an evolving law.  Congress is not particularly active in the evolution of coverage mechanisms but it has been active in the financing mechanisms.  The coverage mechanisms have been active due to judicial and executive action instead.  People are experiencing lower premiums if they are subsidized due to CSR strangeness or lower premiums if they are healthy and unsubsidized by the proliferation of underwritten plans.  Deductibles are still high and out of pocket maxes are scary but as insurers have figured out how to play the subsidy gapping game and the financing elements of the ACA disappear or are pushed back.  The experience and politics are different now than they were in 2014 or 2015.

 

 

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