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Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Consistently wrong since 2002

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

We still have time to mess this up!

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

You cannot shame the shameless.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

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You are here: Home / Open Threads / Arsonist lied about firefighting activities

Arsonist lied about firefighting activities

by Betty Cracker|  December 4, 201812:42 pm| 72 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity, Assholes, Blatant Liars and the Lies They Tell, General Stupidity

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Arsonists don’t make the best firefighters — hoocoodanode, amirite?

"It doesn’t seem like anything was actually agreed to at the dinner and White House officials are contorting themselves into pretzels to reconcile Trump’s tweets (which seem if not completely fabricated then grossly exaggerated) with reality." – JPM trading note

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) December 4, 2018

Valued commenter A Ghost to Most alerted us to this Raw Story piece, which has more details, in the morning thread:

A new note from investment bank JPMorgan advises traders to not buy into the hype that President Donald Trump has ended his own trade war with China.

As reported by CNBC’s Carl Quintanilla, JPMorgan is telling investors that Trump’s declaration this week that China will immediately drop all tariffs on American cars has no basis in reality.

In particular, the note said that investors should have “valid reason for caution” when it comes to investing on the hopes that Trump is on the verge of a major breakthrough with China.

“It doesn’t seem like anything was actually agreed to at the dinner and White House officials are contorting themselves into pretzels to reconcile Trump’s tweets (which seem if not completely fabricated then grossly exaggerated) with reality,” the note states.

This is new, right — a pathological liar in the White House causing several-hundred-point swings in the stock market by casually tweeting big, fat whoppers, necessitating investment banks to issue cautionary statements because the president is a fucking liar who can’t be trusted to tell the truth about anything?

Someone must’ve clued Trump in, because he tweeted out this garbled dog’s breakfast of moronitude:

The negotiations with China have already started. Unless extended, they will end 90 days from the date of our wonderful and very warm dinner with President Xi in Argentina. Bob Lighthizer will be working closely with Steve Mnuchin, Larry Kudlow, Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro…..

……on seeing whether or not a REAL deal with China is actually possible. If it is, we will get it done. China is supposed to start buying Agricultural product and more immediately. President Xi and I want this deal to happen, and it probably will. But if not remember,……

….I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power. We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN

I was an English major at a Southern football school, and even I know consumers eat the costs of tariffs, but it doesn’t sound like the Wharton grad with superior genes gets that.

OMFG, Mr. Mueller — please do something before this moron wrecks not only what was once the world’s most stable democracy but brings the entire global financial system to ruin because he needs a “win.”

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Previous Post: « Imagine Loving Trump More Than Your Wife
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Reader Interactions

72Comments

  1. 1.

    Gin & Tonic

    December 4, 2018 at 12:45 pm

    The markets are rendering their opinion in real time.

  2. 2.

    Ruviana

    December 4, 2018 at 12:50 pm

    Last time to make plans. Well I’m a tumbler, I’m a tariff man.

  3. 3.

    The Dangerman

    December 4, 2018 at 12:51 pm

    This is new, right — a pathological liar in the White House causing several-hundred-point swings in the stock market…

    I wonder who’s making bank by shorting stuff. Probably someone in the Trump Family.

    I’d rather have Sully (the Pilot) or Sully (the Dog) as President.

  4. 4.

    dr. bloor

    December 4, 2018 at 12:52 pm

    it doesn’t sound like the Wharton grad with superior genes gets that.

    In fairness, scamming working folks out of their money and smothering their suspicions in bullshit might be the single skill he took away from Wharton’s curriculum.

  5. 5.

    Jeffro

    December 4, 2018 at 12:53 pm

    And the field narrows by one: AVENATTI OUT FOR 2020!

    Whew! That was gonna be a close one…(eyeroll)

  6. 6.

    bobbo

    December 4, 2018 at 12:54 pm

    It’s almost as if someone has the power to move the markets and invests accordingly.

  7. 7.

    dmsilev

    December 4, 2018 at 12:54 pm

    Dear corporate overlords: I hope that tax cut was worth it.

    Signed, all the rest of us.

  8. 8.

    TenguPhule

    December 4, 2018 at 12:56 pm

    When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so.

    Trump: “When the Vikings come to burn our towns, rape our sheep and steal our women, I insist that they pay me a piece of the action first.”

  9. 9.

    TenguPhule

    December 4, 2018 at 12:57 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:

    The markets are rendering their opinion in real time.

    The traders in the market are all idiots catching up with reality the hard way.

  10. 10.

    dmsilev

    December 4, 2018 at 12:57 pm

    @TenguPhule: Trumpgeld is the classiest geld you can imagine.

  11. 11.

    J R in WV

    December 4, 2018 at 12:59 pm

    And he still doesn’t know or understand that US tariffs are paid 100% by the consumers and businesses of the US, not by foreign traders.

    What a maroon. You don’t even need an econ class to know that!!

  12. 12.

    Barbara

    December 4, 2018 at 1:02 pm

    J.P. Morgan suggested that the president “completely fabricated” an informal agreement with China on tariffs. It’s getting harder to act as if things are normal even for people who are really, really, willing to pretend that’s the case.

  13. 13.

    TenguPhule

    December 4, 2018 at 1:02 pm

    Politico is reporting that the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP campaign arm, suffered a major hack during the 2018 election that exposed thousands of sensitive emails to an outside intruder.

    Politco: Emails of top NRCC officials stolen in major 2018 hack

    Looks like Russia decided its time to spice things up a notch.

    “We don’t want to get into details about what was taken because it’s an ongoing investigation,” said a senior party official. “Let’s say they had access to four active accounts. I think you can draw from that.”

  14. 14.

    sdhays

    December 4, 2018 at 1:02 pm

    Do you know the Tariff Man, the Tariff Man, the Tariff Man?
    Do you know the Tariff Man, who is going to destroy us all?

  15. 15.

    Kay

    December 4, 2018 at 1:02 pm

    I just assumed he lied. It’s not hard to be right; everything he says is a lie. There are people who still believe what he says? Remarkable. I can no longer imagine being that person. “Donald Trump said..” is the first three words of a joke, right?

  16. 16.

    TenguPhule

    December 4, 2018 at 1:04 pm

    Donald J. Trump
    ✔
    @realDonaldTrump
    Could somebody please explain to the Democrats (we need their votes) that our Country losses 250 Billion Dollars a year on illegal immigration, not including the terrible drug flow. Top Border Security, including a Wall, is $25 Billion. Pays for itself in two months. Get it done!

    41.8K
    6:22 AM – Dec 4, 2018

    I don’t even know where to start with how much is just plain wrong in that tweet.

  17. 17.

    Ajabu

    December 4, 2018 at 1:05 pm

    Because Betty said this is an open thread, I’m just going to leave this rant here:
    Well, it’s the Xmas season again and (for those of us who actually support a household playing music) an entire month of repeatedly performing the same 20-25 tired ass “Holiday” tunes that the cretins know & love. I’d like to discuss one little ditty in my Xmas repertoire that beautifully encapsulates our current political situation, “Rudolph, the Red Nosed Reindeer”.
    A cute children’s song, right? Wrong! It’s insidious. You all know the song. Sing the lyrics to yourself. Go ahead, I’ll wait…
    OK. Let’s see what it’s actually saying:
    Rudolph was born with an obvious birth defect. As a result he was ostracized, humiliated and abused by his entire community – even as a child.(No reindeer games for you, freak Mofo!). This shunning continued unabated until one year, a climate crisis created a situation in which the community could use Rudolph’s affliction to their own benefit. And all of a sudden he’s a fucking hero. Sure. Of course.
    Until next year when the weather is clear and he’s back in the shithouse.
    So, to recap: If somebody is “different”, fuck over them unless & until you can derive some personal benefit from exploiting their condition. Then they’re cool until the crisis is over. Afterwards, Oh, well…
    IS THIS WHAT WE WANT TO TEACH OUR CHILDREN?
    TO ALL BECOME REPUBLICANS?
    Excuse me, Gotta go. I just got a request to play “I’m dreaming of a White Christmas”.

  18. 18.

    JPL

    December 4, 2018 at 1:05 pm

    @TenguPhule: It means that Mexico isn’t going to pay for the wall.

  19. 19.

    Kay

    December 4, 2018 at 1:07 pm

    The House GOP campaign arm suffered a major hack during the 2018 election, exposing thousands of sensitive emails to an outside intruder, according to three senior party officials.
    The email accounts of four senior aides at the National Republican Congressional Committee were surveilled for several months, the party officials said. The intrusion was detected in April by an NRCC vendor, who alerted the committee and its cybersecurity contractor. An internal investigation was initiated and the FBI was alerted to the attack, said the officials, who requested anonymity to discuss the incident.

    We’ll be seeing these in the NYTimes. right? Where have all the transparency mavens of 2016 gone? Weird how the only private communications we see are those that are stolen from Democrats.

  20. 20.

    Barbara

    December 4, 2018 at 1:09 pm

    @Ajabu: I stopped going caroling with my neighborhood association because they refused to sing real Christmas songs. Why bother?

  21. 21.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 4, 2018 at 1:09 pm

    Also, this happened:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/03/the-thing-the-bond-market-most-feared-is-beginning-to-happen.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    The bond market sees storm clouds on the horizon, despite the trade ceasefire between President Donald Trump and China.

    But not all strategists agree with the dire warnings, though they do note some unusual behavior.

    On Monday, the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield, at 2.97 percent, and the 2-year yield, at 2.82 percent, dramatically narrowed by 5 basis points, the biggest one day move since late March. On Tuesday, the gap narrowed even more to as little as 13 basis points as the 10-year hit 2.95 percent.

    Traders have been watching the difference between the yields on various Treasurys for months, along what is called the yield curve between the longer and shorter-term bonds. And in this time, the longer duration 10-year yield has gotten closer and closer to the yield on the 2-year. If the two should flip, and the 2 -year yield actually rises above the benchmark 10-year, that inversion would be a signal of a recession.

    The two yields are currently just under 14 basis points apart, the narrowest since around the time they last inverted in June 2007. What’s worrisome for some is that on Monday, the difference between the yields on the 3-year and 5-year, and those of the 2-year and 5-year, inverted.

    “It speaks to the potential for the 2s and 10s to invert,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rate strategy at BMO.

    The timing could vary, he said, depending on the cycle. But it’s typically a matter of months, not days or weeks, when such an event could happen. “That might put 2s and 10s inversion on the table by the end of the year, and if not, then around the March FOMC meeting,” Lyngen said.

    A lot of this is traders reading tea leaves. An inversion of the 2- and 10-year yields has been a reliable recession indicator in the past. Not all inversions have led to a recession, but recessions have always been preceded by inversions, according to Michael Schumacher, director of rate strategy at Wells Fargo.

    Between 1988 and 2008, inversions of the 2s and 10s were followed by recessions about 24 months later, according to Wells Fargo.

    The 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 3 percent just after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke last week for the first time since Sept. 18. The 3 percent level is a psychological milestone that the 10-year has spent much more time below than above since the financial crisis. The move higher in September was seen as an important step into a new range, in reaction to Fed rate hiking.

    Some say pensions are buying the 10-year because with higher stock prices, they have closed their funding gap and now are looking for safety plays. There is also talk of heavy buying from Asia, and some traders point to short-covering.

    Others point to reduced fears about inflation, making the 10-year more attractive. They also note that the 10-year yield will move lower with the German bund, which yields just 0.28 percent, and that central bank purchases of assets continue to depress yields.

    “I wouldn’t pay too much attention to that particular move but I think the front end is more interesting,” said Schumacher. He pointed to comments from Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida and said the market appears to be ignoring him. “If you listened to Clarida, he said in a nutshell that central banks have to worry about inflation going too low. That would imply to me a less aggressive Fed tightening, and you think that would drive down the front end down.”

    Much, much more at the link.

  22. 22.

    Amir Khalid

    December 4, 2018 at 1:10 pm

    @J R in WV:
    I’m going to pretend for a moment that I’m Sarah Huckabee Sanders:
    “Pah. That is mere fact. Donald Trump is the bestest President of The United States ever, and unlike any President before him he has authority over the facts. He, not the facts, determines what is true. So there. Pout.”

  23. 23.

    dmsilev

    December 4, 2018 at 1:10 pm

    @TenguPhule: His capitalization habits are atrocious.

  24. 24.

    TenguPhule

    December 4, 2018 at 1:10 pm

    @Kay:

    We’ll be seeing these in the NYTimes. right?

    Russia just collecting more blackmail material.

    None of the information accessed during the hack — thousands of emails from senior NRCC aides — has appeared in public, party officials said. And they said there were no attempts to threaten the NRCC or its leadership during the campaign with exposure of the information.

  25. 25.

    TenguPhule

    December 4, 2018 at 1:11 pm

    @dmsilev: And the spelling and the math fuckups.

  26. 26.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 4, 2018 at 1:11 pm

    @Kay: I’m sure GG is on top of getting them from Wikileaks so he can publish them in the Intercept as I type this.

  27. 27.

    NotMax

    December 4, 2018 at 1:12 pm

    “We’ve always been at war with Eastasia.”
      – 1984

    White House officials are contorting themselves into pretzels

    Doing the lumbar limbo is a work requirement in this woebegone White House.

    “How low can you go?”

    “Just wait, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.”

  28. 28.

    The Very Reverend Crimson Fire of Compassion

    December 4, 2018 at 1:13 pm

    @Barbara: Real Christmas songs? As opposed to . . . ?

  29. 29.

    TenguPhule

    December 4, 2018 at 1:14 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: 2019 is when everything starts falling apart. Its going to be a long slide down.

    A long way down.

  30. 30.

    Burnspbesq

    December 4, 2018 at 1:14 pm

    @Ruviana:

    All I want is to breathe.

  31. 31.

    NotMax

    December 4, 2018 at 1:14 pm

    @Ajabu

    Could you pull Chet’s nuts out of the fire? Smells like they’re burning.

  32. 32.

    Fair Economist

    December 4, 2018 at 1:15 pm

    @Ajabu: I always interpreted the rejection of Rudolf as wrong, both in the song and the cartoon. Yes, almost everybody is insensitive to mean but as a child I thought that pretty realistic and I haven’t seen much to revise my opinion, other than there should have been a few more sticking up for Rudolf.

  33. 33.

    TenguPhule

    December 4, 2018 at 1:17 pm

    @The Very Reverend Crimson Fire of Compassion:

    Real Christmas songs? As opposed to . . . ?

    Counterfeit Carols.

  34. 34.

    Betty Cracker

    December 4, 2018 at 1:18 pm

    Speaking of hacks, someone in an earlier thread mentioned the hack of one of the Manafort daughter’s iPhone and all the salacious and incriminating material it contained. Guess what “transparency” organization refused to make a searchable database of that info available to the public?

    To paraphrase one of our valued commenters from the other day (can’t remember who, sorry), it appears deeply personal information that can cause pain to specific individuals only “wants to be free” when the source is a Democrat.

  35. 35.

    A Ghost To Most

    December 4, 2018 at 1:23 pm

    Wow, there’s a first.

    I see the market is pissed about being lied to.

    And the senators who were briefed by Haspel came out truly steaming. One said “no smoking gun, a smoking bone saw” (Corker or Graham).

  36. 36.

    donnah

    December 4, 2018 at 1:24 pm

    Ajabu, I see the Rudolph story like this: A character who is obviously different from his society is bullied and made fun of, but goes on to connect with others who are also different. They band together as friends, fend off danger and rescue a community of other outcasts. Rudolph earns his own sense of strength and pride, then helps Santa carry out the Christmas deliveries.

    That’s how I feel about it. I’m sorry your holiday carolling isn’t enjoyable. It should be fun.

  37. 37.

    trollhattan

    December 4, 2018 at 1:26 pm

    @dmsilev:
    As is his serial adjective abuse-overuse.

  38. 38.

    NotMax

    December 4, 2018 at 1:27 pm

    @donnah

    Sort of like the original X-men.

    :)

  39. 39.

    A Ghost To Most

    December 4, 2018 at 1:28 pm

    @Betty Cracker: GOP omerta.

  40. 40.

    A Ghost To Most

    December 4, 2018 at 1:32 pm

    @The Very Reverend Crimson Fire of Compassion:

    “Mrs. Claus’s Kimono”

  41. 41.

    Barbara

    December 4, 2018 at 1:35 pm

    @The Very Reverend Crimson Fire of Compassion: “I saw Mommy kissing Santa Claus” or “Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer” or “Up on the Rooftop ho ho ho,” or “Frosty the Snowman,” etc.

  42. 42.

    Fair Economist

    December 4, 2018 at 1:35 pm

    Also keep in mind that when Rudolf was written and animated segregation was still the law in many states. Our whole concept that society should be just and fair is a very recent one, the work of the New Left contemporaneous with the Rudolf animated show. Rudolf certainly depicts society as cruel, but I don’t see how that means the fictional works approve of the cruelty.

  43. 43.

    A Ghost To Most

    December 4, 2018 at 1:37 pm

    @A Ghost To Most:

    I’m a sinister elf,
    With a sinister plan,
    Santa’s little helper,
    With too much time on my hands

  44. 44.

    Ruviana

    December 4, 2018 at 1:37 pm

    @Burnspbesq: Won’t you breathe with me?

  45. 45.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    December 4, 2018 at 1:47 pm

    @Ajabu: For me, the main beef I have is that the animated show gave us “Holly, Jolly Christmas”. I imagine you have feelings about that one.

    How do you feel about “Baby, It’s Cold Outside”? It’s not actually a Christmas song, but radio stations break it out this time of year and put it into Christmas rotation anyway. I’ve seen a lot of heated discussion about that one and how the lyrics are a little too date-rapey and we should maybe put it on the shelf.

  46. 46.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    December 4, 2018 at 1:53 pm

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym: I don’t read “Baby It’s Cold” that way but I can see how people would. And while the male character isn’t actually forcing the woman against her will, there is certainly a “no means yes” element to it. The woman says she should say no, but doesn’t really want to, and really wants to be talked into staying. So yeah, it’s not a great message.

    That discussion made me think of a song from my own youth and young adulthood, “Fire” by the Pointer Sisters. (Yes, my youth involved leisure suits and disco. Don’t judge me. Oh, heck, go ahead and judge me). I liked that song, but even back then the lyrics made me a little uncomfortable:

    You’re pullin’ me close
    I just say no
    I say I don’t like it
    But you know I’m a liar

  47. 47.

    Whitney Barnes

    December 4, 2018 at 1:54 pm

    @Fair Economist: The TV special presents it as normal that the father would denigrate his son for being different. And presents it as normal and expected that the adults would stand by and say nothing as the kid who did nothing wrong is teased and ostracized. If the “good” characters objected, I’d see that as the special arguing that the treatment was wrong, but to the best my recollection, no one does. Everyone just goes along with it like it’s normal and expected.

  48. 48.

    Fair Economist

    December 4, 2018 at 2:01 pm

    @Whitney Barnes: My point is that at the time there were many, many things that were “normal” and horribly wrong, such as barring interracial marriages, explicitly racist immigration quota, medicalized torture of GLBTQ, etc. The idea that normal things are necessarily OK or at least not too bad is more recent than Rudolf. It’s not really true yet anyway, just less false than in 1964.

  49. 49.

    Hitlesswonder

    December 4, 2018 at 2:02 pm

    So, does Trump not know that the importer pays the tariff, or does he know and is just trying convince everyone else that he’s bringing back $ from China?

    Really, there should be a frontpage story in WaPo and the NYTimes about Trump’s continually incorrect assertion about who pays tariffs. It’s a big deal.

  50. 50.

    Carol Lerche

    December 4, 2018 at 2:08 pm

    @Ajabu: My 3-yr-old twin grandchildren love their book with “The Little Red Hen” story. It is the children’s Ayn Rand.

  51. 51.

    clay

    December 4, 2018 at 2:10 pm

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym: “Fire” is actually a Springsteen song, covered by the Pointer Sisters. It’s ultimately about a couple whose physical chemistry is too strong to resist, even if they know better in their head. I don’t think there’s anything too troubling about that.

    I like the gender reversal of the cover; it shows that women, too, can initiate, so to speak.

  52. 52.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    December 4, 2018 at 2:11 pm

    @Hitlesswonder:

    So, does Trump not know…

    The answer to all questions that start that way is “No, Trump does not know”. He seems to be appallingly ignorant about everything. EVERYTHING. Except crafting his own image and grifting. He’s one of the best we’ve seen at that. He bragged that he could make a profit on a presidential run and by FSM he did it.

  53. 53.

    bemused senior

    December 4, 2018 at 2:15 pm

    @Barbara: My daughter, who has spent her life singing in elite choruses, and rarely hears Christmas vocal music she doesn’t know by heart, explained to me that there are Christmas songs (secular) and Christmas carols (religious). Is this the distinction you are trying for?

  54. 54.

    boatboy_srq

    December 4, 2018 at 2:22 pm

    When 2016 happened I was working at a financial institution. I overheard (repeatedly) the senior management eagerly discussing the brave new world Lord Dampnut would usher in, and how the financial services sector would blossom.

    They got quieter over the next year-plus. Can’t imagine why.

  55. 55.

    jimmiraybob

    December 4, 2018 at 2:47 pm

    @bobbo:

    It’s almost as if someone has the power to move the markets and invests accordingly.

    Magic 8 Ball: Yes, it’s almost as if.

  56. 56.

    JaySinWA

    December 4, 2018 at 2:47 pm

    @bemused senior: There is schlock and not schlock. Secular and religious can be in both camps. The older carols tend to survive in a winnowing out process that hasn’t hit modern pop music, and tended to be more religious, so the split may seem to be religious vrs secular, but isn’t in my opinion.

  57. 57.

    FlipYrWhig

    December 4, 2018 at 3:01 pm

    @Hitlesswonder: I feel like he somehow got the idea that a tariff is like a toll, and now that it’s in his head it’s never going to go away. You could tell him something different but he’s going to keep coming back to that. Because he’s really deeply fucking stupid.

  58. 58.

    catclub

    December 4, 2018 at 3:08 pm

    @sdhays:

    Do you know the Tariff Man, the Tariff Man, the Tariff Man?
    Do you know the Tariff Man, who is going to destroy us all?

    s/is going to /shall/ scans better.
    Do you know the Tariff Man, who shall destroy us all?

  59. 59.

    rikyrah

    December 4, 2018 at 3:09 pm

    @donnah:

    that’s how I see the Rudolph story.

  60. 60.

    The Other Bob

    December 4, 2018 at 3:09 pm

    So much for tariffs helping the little guy….

    “Ford Motor Co. says it expects tariffs on steel and aluminum to cut profits by $1 billion by the end of next year. If so, that translates to $1,000 that President Donald Trump’s trade war has taken from each Ford hourly worker — many of whom voted for Trump on the belief he would help their economic security.”

    Automotive News

  61. 61.

    catclub

    December 4, 2018 at 3:23 pm

    @TenguPhule: I had a wingnut acquaintance tell me that same $250B/yr.
    1. It was pure fantasy, It also confused one time costs with yearly costs – whocoodanode?
    2. It also forgot any possible benefits. I think I know why.

  62. 62.

    jl

    December 4, 2018 at 3:24 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: One thing that makes interpretation of Treasury yield curves more difficult now is that the Fed has been using them for some time now (well over a year, maybe back to Yellen) to calibrate their rate increases to be at just the right pace in order to avoid inverting. The goal has been to raise interest rates enough to keep the nominal yield curve on the edge of inverting. The real (inflation adjusted) yield curve has been inverted since mid summer.

    Not clear what predictive information the yield curve gives now, after it is part of the algorithm on how far and fast to raise rates. One theory of how the yield curve works is that getting higher short term rates dries up long term investment. Why bother to invest in bonds for long term and put up with the extra risk of a long duration bond, when you can get more by investing in short term? But long term investment is mainly structures, and both residential and non-residential real investment in structures has been stuttering for almost a year now, and they stutters seem just as driven by other macro factors, such as demand for housing, than interest rates, far more than in the past. And the brilliant 2017 GOP tax scam bill seems to be on average reducing growth in real investment, not increasing it.

    So, significance of Treasury yield curve isn’t clear.

    And, to clarify, seems like there should be a huge demand for homes and apartments, but in economics you have to be both willing and able to pay for a good in order to contributed to demand. The ‘willing’ is there, but the ‘able’ is not. Residential housing finance is so messed up that few can afford what developers want to offer.

    Edit: and brilliant GOP tax heist bill is designed to work through a channel of higher interest rates and bigger trade deficit. That story is just unfolding now, though seems so far to work more through deficit and its effects on trade balance, than increases real investment inside US (which is not happening).

  63. 63.

    catclub

    December 4, 2018 at 3:49 pm

    @jl: Could you help me with this:

    There are other technical factors at play. It doesn’t help that the Fed is draining liquidity by reversing QE; reducing its balance sheet by $50 billion every month. As my colleague Brian Chappatta wrote, the Fed’s balance-sheet reduction could be putting more pressure on longer notes than shorter-dated maturities.

    I understand that the fed had owned lots of bonds, and now has presumably $50B/month fewer bonds. Does that mean it borrowed money from the Treasury to
    buy the bonds (expanding the balance sheet) and is now returning cash to the Treasury? Or where does the money come from to buy those QE bonds?

  64. 64.

    jl

    December 4, 2018 at 4:09 pm

    @catclub: I don’t keep up with the mechanics, I’m interested in the macroeconomics, and how that impacts us ‘lesser’ people.. QE 1 and II, IIRC, started with a massive FED buy of US Treasury securities. So the Fed lent the Treasury money (aka, buying the bonds). QE III extended the Fed buys to mortgage backed securities and corporate assets. So, one of the problems of reversing QE is to do in a way that does not make the FED a huge net effective borrower of funds from the Treasury.

    Last I read about the mechanics in detail, the Fed is not selling anything back. It is just letting all the QE debt instruments it holds mature, and drastically scaling back, or stopping, new purchases. So the amount of assets held by the FED gradually declines.

    The general issue is that reversing the QEs changes the Feds position from being a net lender (increasing money liquidity in the financial system) to a net borrower (decreasing money liquidity in the financial system)). Maybe an expert on it cam comment if I got any of that wrong. When, eventually, all the nets net out, the Fed won’t be such a huge lender to US Treasury or corporate sector. The trick is to do it gradually, so the reduction in money liquidity from the Fed doesn’t disrupt financial markets.

  65. 65.

    jl

    December 4, 2018 at 4:17 pm

    @jl: i should always check wiki first. Looks like purchases of mortgage backed securities were always part of the mix in all the QEs, but as went from I to II, purchases of mortgage backed securities decreases compared to Treasuries, and then in III, Fed bought up pretty much anything that could be construed to be sound debt.

  66. 66.

    Nubby

    December 4, 2018 at 4:23 pm

    @catclub

    The Federal Reserve keystrokes that money into existence, the money is on the liability side of the balance sheet and the Treasuries are on the asset side. This is why the US sans the stupid debt ceiling can never default on its debt, all Federal debts are denominated in dollars, the Fed can create unlimited dollars.

    Another feature of this is that “excess profits” made by the Federal Reserve are periodically swept out of the Fed’s accounts into Treasury’s general account. So any interest paid to the Fed on US Treasuries comes back to the Treasury. This is why debt held by the Fed really shouldn’t be considered as part of the National Debt, it’s basically like loaning yourself money.

  67. 67.

    jl

    December 4, 2018 at 4:24 pm

    And of course, the Fed got the cash to pay for all this stuff from the Fed. It gave out ‘cash’ that was really Fed high power money IOUs that banks could use as reserve money, which is what banks use to back their loans and stay in regulatory compliance with required reserve ratios.

  68. 68.

    Jerrilynn McNair

    December 4, 2018 at 4:54 pm

    Please watch Bloomberg cabal financial news. Every nite the have a show when the Asian markets open. Last nite there were 2 male host and they were laughing at Trump. If they had been standing they would have been slapping each other on the back.

  69. 69.

    Mnemosyne

    December 4, 2018 at 4:57 pm

    @donnah:

    Yeah, I think Rankin and Bass realized there were some problems with the story as presented in the song and expanded it out. The adults are wrong to be so mean to Rudolph and let the other deer bully him, but those characters coming to understand that they were wrong is part of the arc of the story. If everyone was nice and stopped the bullying at the beginning, there would be no story!

  70. 70.

    Mnemosyne

    December 4, 2018 at 4:59 pm

    Also, “Grandma Got Run Over by a Reindeer” is about a guy who murders his wife and frames Santa for the crime, and his family is too stupid or too cowed to confront him about it or turn him in.

    There’s a reason “The Good Place” shows that song as being a favorite of demons. ?

  71. 71.

    Steve in the ATL

    December 4, 2018 at 5:05 pm

    @Jeffro:

    And the field narrows by one: AVENATTI OUT FOR 2020!

    That’s just the DNC clearing the field for Hillary’s coronation

  72. 72.

    thomas

    December 4, 2018 at 7:21 pm

    I was an English major at a Southern football school, and even I know consumers eat the costs of tariffs, but it doesn’t sound like the Wharton grad with superior genes gets that.

    From Bloomberg:
    China Is Paying for Most of Trump’s Trade War, Research Says
    That’s the conclusion of a new paper from EconPol Europe, a network of researchers in the European Union. U.S. companies and consumers will only pay 4.5 percent more after the nation imposed 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and the other 20.5 percent toll will fall on Chinese producers, according to authors Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr.

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