Nancy Pelosi was widely and justly acclaimed for leaving stiletto divots all over Trump’s lumpy hide last Tuesday. But as usual, the Beltway press isn’t going to let a Democrat — any Democrat — enjoy a day in the sun. In The Post, ambulatory cream cheese sculpture Hugh Hewitt is already spiking the football on the coming immigration fight, which Trump will win because nobody thought he’d win the 2016 election and he DID, so suck it, libturds!
Hewitt’s ideological fellow traveler at The Post, the infinitely more sinister Marc Thiessen, is condescendingly advising Democrats to just give Trump what he wants already:
Good news for the incoming House Democratic majority! They have something President Trump really, really wants: money to build a border wall. Trump is desperate for this money. Mexico won’t give it to him. Only congressional Democrats can. Without their consent, he can’t deliver on one of the key campaign promises he made during the 2016 election.
There’s a name for this in classic negotiating strategy. It’s called “leverage.” Good negotiators use leverage (something they have, which their adversary wants) to obtain what are called “concessions” (something their adversary has, which they want). The result is what experts call “compromise.” This is how the civilized world gets things done.
But in a fit of pique, Democrats are throwing away their leverage, insisting that they will never — under any circumstances — give Trump the wall he so desperately wants. The reason? Because he wants it and they despise him.
There is a name for this in negotiating strategy as well. It’s called “insanity…”
So why not give Trump his wall in exchange for something they want? They could give Trump the $5 billion he is asking for to begin construction of the wall in exchange for a path to citizenship for the nearly 2 million “dreamers” — mainly illegal immigrants who were brought to the United States as children through no fault of their own. Trump would negotiate on this basis in a heartbeat.
Who cares what those two despicable wingnut frauds think, you’re probably asking yourself, and normally, I would agree. But Thiessen’s narrative is seeping into The Post editorial board, which published an opinion earlier today that was infuriatingly entitled “Trump and Democrats can reach a deal on the wall — if they have the spine to take it.” Here’s the conclusion:
If there is a moral imperative in any trade-off involving immigration and security, it’s the urgent necessity of finding a way to ensure a future in this country for dreamers, who are Americans by upbringing, education, loyalty and inclination — by every metric but a strictly legal one. Striking a deal that achieves that outcome should be a no-brainer for both sides. If it means a few billion dollars to construct segments of Mr. Trump’s wall, Democrats should be able to swallow that with the knowledge that it also will have paid to safeguard so many young lives, careers and hopes. That’s not a tough sell even in a Democratic primary.
Any compromise worth the trouble involves painful concessions for each side, but in this case, if assessed with cool heads, the concessions are a far cry from excruciating. The question, for both sides, is familiar: Do they want an issue or a solution? If it’s the latter, it’s eminently achievable.
It’s like there’s an outbreak of collective amnesia at The Post. Does no one there remember that “Chuck and Nancy” were willing to give Trump $25 billion for his stupid-ass wall earlier this year in exchange for a path to citizenship for the Dreamers, an offer that Trump refused to consider unless the Democrats agreed to draconian cuts to LEGAL immigration? The Post covered the story, but it still went down the memory hole.
It may come to pass that Trump accepts one-fifth of the amount of the previous offer and basks in the glow of a great victory because Trump is a liar and a scam artist (and sycophants like Hewitt and Thiessen will be waving pom-poms and singing hosannas in praise of The Great Negotiator in The Post). It’s also easy to imagine Trump insisting on terms the Democrats can’t accept because they’re based on fiction, such as that the USA is being overrun with diseased brown hordes, so future immigration must be restricted to applicants who are underwear models from the Nordic countries.
Either of these scenarios is plausible. But what’s not plausible is the assumption that Trump is bargaining in good faith. Both-sidesing the immigration standoff at this stage is bullshit, and it doesn’t augur well for how the media will spin the upcoming confrontation.
Quinerly
Just read that Trump didn’t bother to go to work yesterday. Never left his private residence. I think he’s truly cracking. Wasn’t there a rumor about a breakdown and secret hospitalization years back?
chopper
apparently not. didn’t pelosi and/or schumer even bring up the earlier offer in the WH meeting?
germy
@Quinerly:
I thought I read something about an intervention because of his over reliance on amphetamines.
OzarkHillbilly
-Kevin Drum
SFAW
@OzarkHillbilly:
Looking for a downside …
Oh, there it is: Rush and the Freedumb Caucus don’t follow them over the cliff.
Adam L Silverman
This part of Thiessen’s piece shows the fact that he is not a strategic and critical thinker, nor much of an deep thinker/intellect at all (emphasis mine):
There is not even a moment spent here, or elsewhere in his column, as to whether this is good public policy. As to whether it is good security policy. As to whether it will actually resolve the problem. As to whether it is, to use the test criteria for every policy and strategy: feasible, acceptable, and suitable. And there is absolutely no recognition that, as is also the case when negotiating with Mitch McConnell, the President and his senior policy advisor (Stephen Miller) cannot be trusted to stick to their agreements. That agreements for these men don’t even rise to the level of transactional. That as soon as the President gets the part he wants, he will abandon, with prodding from Stephen Miller, his part of the deal. He will stiff them, just as he has done so many times with his partners, employees, contractors working on projects for him, creditors, and shareholders.
Gin & Tonic
@OzarkHillbilly: Well, Walls Work. That’s not just opinion, that’s official government policy.
[Yes, I am shamelessly reposting form the dead thread downstairs. Sue me.]
Adam L Silverman
@OzarkHillbilly: Drum is correct in his analysis.
Mike in DC
@Quinerly: Kurt Eichenwald was trying to chase down that rumor, as I recall.
Quinerly
@germy: I think it was sometime during the bankruptcy years. I have a feeling this will spiral fast.
Corner Stone
Personally, I am all for starting a negotiation at a hard point and *then* moving on something you can afford to give up.
Mr. Prosser
The fun times on Tuesday had nothing to do with real immigration. I think Pelosi (and Schumer a little bit) went in solely to bait trump into taking responsibility for any shut down. They can work DACA next year, this year it’s mess with Il Douche and get the rethugs into a corner before really going to work.
OzarkHillbilly
@Gin & Tonic: If reposting from dead threads became a litigious offense we’d spend all our time in court.
Corner Stone
@OzarkHillbilly:
I agree with this somewhat. It seems similar to the abortion scenario. They don’t really want to solve the problem or resolve a negotiation to make it better because then they can’t fundraise off it. And they will be hated by the very people they stoked to a fever pitch since Reagan.
Quinerly
New David Corn piece up about Flynn.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/12/michael-flynn-contacts-russia-campaign-robert-mueller/
OzarkHillbilly
@Corner Stone: Absolutists hold for absolute results, anything less is a betrayal to their cause.
ETA and to riff on your abortion example, the surest way to reduce abortions is to make birth control universally available, but that would be a betrayal to their moral obligation to save the life of every unimplanted human cell.
Corner Stone
I remember it very well because I found it fairly enraging at the time. Everyone knew he was going to crawfish on his end of the DACA deal.
Bupalos
Just give Trump his wall. It’s not a reasonable thing to want, but that’s clearly all he wants, so just give it to him and we’ll have peace in our time!
Adam L Silverman
@germy: @Quinerly: Correct. Wayne Barrett, who was the President’s first unofficial biographer, wrote about this in his coverage of him. He wouldn’t leave his residence in Trump Tower. He had burgers and fries and shakes sent in and sat around all day in a bathrobe eating, talking to people on the phone, and wallowing in depression and dread. Had it not been for an exceedingly skillful financial conservator forced upon the President by his creditors, he would’ve actually had to declare personal bankruptcy. He would have lost everything.
What I now find interesting about Barrett’s reporting is not that I think Barrett got it wrong, but how do we reconcile it with the decades long tax scam that the President was running with his father on the family’s behalf that was reported about 2 months ago in the NY Times and which is going to serve as the initial investigative blue print for the NY state Attorney General-elect’s investigation into the President, his family, and their businesses.
dmsilev
Bullshit he’d take that deal in a heartbeat. The reason we know it’s bullshit is that the Democrats actually offered something like that last year, and Trump sounded interested for about 30 seconds until it was pointed out to him that this would cut down on his hate parade and he backed away. Trump and a large large swath of the GOP hate hate hate brown people.
Corner Stone
@Bupalos: “Once more the Sith will rule the galaxy and we shall have…peace.”
Betty Cracker
@Adam L Silverman: Exactly right.
Adam L Silverman
@OzarkHillbilly: Similar to the PRC, we are developing a social credit system. We are not yet sure how we will be scoring reposting comments from earlier threads…//
Humdog
The folks like the WP editorial board are actually the ones doing real damage to the foundation of a shared reality based on facts. There have always been liars and gaslighters. But when people nominally in the reality based community willfully ignore reality, (for what reason, it is hard to say) I begin to despair that we can find our way back to solid ground. Partisans like Thiessen and Hewitt don’t truly matter, there will always be liars who have something to gain by lying. But the Post Board, by ignoring very recent history and all that we have learned about how Shitstain “negotiates”, are poisoning the future.
kindness
Having a digital subscription to the WaPo I see the 3 horrible right wing frauds (don’t forget Megan McArgleBargle) and will look a their pieces only to see the comments. Thankfully in every instance so far, the comments are from us non crazy people who point out these people are frauds and crazy. Now why Jeff Bezos thinks these frauds help his paper, I have no clue. It’s a bit insulting all too often.
Adam L Silverman
@Betty Cracker: Thank you.
dmsilev
@Bupalos: Look, how about a compromise. We allocate $1 billion for a wall, on condition that all construction be a maximum of 200 yards away from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. I’m sure something nice and tall could be built for that budget. I’d even go as far as drilling a small hole for a coax cable so that Trump could continue to watch Fox News.
OzarkHillbilly
@Adam L Silverman: I scored a -13 on the PRC social credit system. I am sooooo screwed.
SFAW
@OzarkHillbilly:
Fixed
donnah
There’s an interesting article from Ezra Klein on Vox:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/12/12/18137651/trump-wall-pelosi-schumer-white-house-immigration
He says that Trump isn’t fighting for the Wall, he’s using the Wall as a prop for FOX fan attention and photo ops. He always looks better to them when he’s fighting someone.
different-church-lady
TRUMP: “I WANT TO KILL EVERY PUPPY IN THIS COUNTRY, BUT I CAN ONLY DO IT IF YOU LET ME!!!”
DEMS: “Uh… we don’t want you to do that.”
THIESSEN: “WHY DON’T DEMS KNOW HOW TO BARGAIN?”
Adam L Silverman
@Quinerly: Very good piece. Kislyak was the handler for Russian assets in the national capitol region. Corn’s reporting has been excellent on this and related topics. His sources are solid. And if they’re correct here, then the counterintelligence investigation that Mueller inherited and is running has this information. Which would explain why Flynn agreed to cooperate so quickly. It would also be the third time in
4050 years that a Republican presidential candidate and his campaign conspired with a hostile foreign power in order to win the presidency.different-church-lady
@kindness: Yeah, I tuned into the comments on McBargle just to watch the hot pinata action. Honestly, I think in the age of digital media, the only reason people like her have columns is because they are guaranteed click-bait. They don’t care if her offerings are nonsense, and they don’t care if everyone agrees their her offerings are nonsense, as long as the click numbers go up. It wasn’t like this in the days before clicks.
rp
Here’s a crazy thought: Insisting that you won’t give someone what he wants can be part of a negotiating strategy!
gene108
Fucking Electoral College, screwed the country for the second time in 16 years. Needs to be abolished.
And I’ll end the feud between Taylor Swift and Katy Perry and in their gratitude we’ll have a big sex orgy together.
About as likely as Trump allowing a bunch of filthy browns to stay in this country, instead of deporting them.
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
What does this asshole have to do before these clowns begin to understand that you can’t trust him? I don’t get this. What does he have to do to show these people that he’s a fraud and a liar and a crook? He reallycould shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue, and they’d still tell us that Democrats need to work with him so he doesn’t shoot anybody else or something. Don’t these people have any self respect at all?
Fair Economist
@OzarkHillbilly:
Equally true on our side, with free-Medicare-with-no-deductibles-or-copay types screwing up opportunities for major and beneficial healthcare reform in California and perhaps New York.
I wonder how much of this absolutism has been arranged and by whom. It’s not all genuine independently formed beliefs. The Russians are actively pushing both sides here and in several other places (Catalonia, Brexit) presumably to make governing more difficult. Protestant absolutism on abortion was engineered by purges in theological schools in the 70’s – the Bible itself not only permits abortions but *requires* it for extramarital adultery.
gene108
@Adam L Silverman:
I assume Reagan in 1980 getting Iran to not release the hostages, while Carter was still President is one.
What’s the second instance?
Third I assume is Trump
BC in Illinois
Rising-Speaker Pelosi, in her press conference this morning, hit a point that deserves to be hammered home repeatedly.
Trump’s fall-back position is that Mexico is paying for the wall, through his wonderful NAFTA 2.0. So there! See! They’re paying for it, just like he said.
Pelosi responded with a couple of doses of “he doesn’t know how trade agreements work” (which is true), and then this question (from memory):
This hits right at the core of Trump’s argument, and right at the core of his base, and in terms that his followers might well understand.
1) Trump says that NAFTA 2.0 will bring profit and economic growth to America.
2) Trump says that this new profit and growth will be, in effect, Mexico paying us.
3) This will pay for the wall.
What is “this” in #3? Trump’s plan to pay for the wall works only if the profits made by American businesses will be diverted from growth and jobs, and sent to build a wall. I don’t think that’s what his supporters had in mind. (And that plan, by the way, would still have Americans paying for the wall.)
Speaker Pelosi responded to the whole idea of Mexico paying for the wall through a new trade agreement by holding it up as a non-sensical mess. It can also be ridiculed by treating it seriously: “Is Donald Trump seriously going to take the profits made by American businesses and use those tax dollars to build a symbol along the southern border ? If tax and spend is the Trump plan, then we’re against it.”
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Assuming the first was Nixon, that’s over 40 years now.
PST
Thiessen is not arguing in good faith. He understands perfectly that the Democrats will trade wall money to help the dreamers. He wants to make it look like the Democrats are abandoning the dreamers out of partisanship and spite, which is false. I read the whole piece as a kind of concern trolling couched in condescension. And of course, as others have pointed out, Trump probably prefers the wall as an issue to an actual wall.
piratedan
@Adam L Silverman: and the media has again just adopted it as a contest, GOP vs Dem and completely abdicating any actual analysis regarding things like environmental impact… it sucks… and any actual discussion regarding immigration numbers on our border with Mexico (a dramatically reduced levels) and whether a wall does anything except force the desperate to be get more creative to enter… None of that is being discussed, zippity do-dah… instead everything is couched as a win for some team versus the actual merits of any policy… referencing a tweet from Ironstache a couple of days ago… Trump could simply state that the wall has been completed, say that Mexico paid for it and a good number of his supporters would simply believe it… I mean if these others pants on fire lies are being promoted by Fox News and Sinclair, why not just go full “emperor has no clothes” and run with it? He gets his phony win and they can move on to the next lie…
hueyplong
Thiessen:. If Dems were operating in good faith, they would give Trump his dick back after yesterday’s meltdown.
Mart
@Adam L Silverman: In a sane world might be journalistical to address overstayed visas, historical number of border crossings, environmental impact of the wall, the true cost closer to $60 billion not $25, that the President’s businesses regularly hire immigrants with fake papers, economic impact of immigrants without papers, why employers are never arrested for hiring paperless immigrants, and that Trump is a life long crook who long ago shit the deal when Mexico told him to fuck off.
scav
@hueyplong: Have to find it first
(just to leap at the obvious problem.)
under the Sofa cushions?
laura
First things first, Marc Theissen is filth.
A full-throated cheer leader for torture has no standing to opine about anything to anyone despite the best efforts of the village.
The wall is a sop to the already afeared, and that’s all Shitler has to keep the rubes riled. Any dollar spent on border security is, at this point, nothing more than the bonfire of our tax dollars that could otherwise be put to productive use, and is enriching the growing for-profit prison industry while demonizing those in our country and those seeking to live here.
The Michael Corleone offer is the only offer they deserve and Marc Theissen and his ilk can eat a bag of salted ducks till they choke.
Mart
@Mart: Or what piratedan said in comment 42…
Amir Khalid
@gene108:
Nixon and North Vietnam, of course, which was actually 50 years ago.
Kraux Pas
Hey, what if we built a LITERAL white elephant at the border? Seems about as good an idea as the wall.
Mike in DC
There’s no scenario where a Wall-for-DACA bill passes through both chambers of Congress and gets signed by the president, clean and free of poison pills like restrictions on legal immigration, permanent foreclosure of citizenship for Dreamers, etc. Even people like Luis Gutierrez, in his heart, know this to be true.
Cermet
@Adam L Silverman: Let me guess -Nixon, and Ray-gun. Now the orange fart cloud. Yeah, the Reptilian party, real patriots.
The article in Salon points out just how the fart cloud is screwed as is a number of his enablers due to the russian connections and lies. Putin is getting his wish to really mess with this countries political system – not; they are willing to sell out to anyone for the power that controls the money. Surely putin already knew this as you just pointed out. Scratch a conservative christian and one gets a money hungry lying coward that would sell their own children to sex slavery for the influence to obtain more cash.
jeffreyw
@Adam L Silverman:
Will I be able to buy credits? Like with Audible, where extra credits sell for three at a time for a reduced price?
BC in Illinois
@OzarkHillbilly:
And perhaps we could work to provide every mother the resources she needed: maternal care, pre-natal care, health care, pediatric care—you know, Affordable Care.
And then, how about maternity leave? — where America is practically alone in the developed nations of the world in providing NO guarantee of parental leave. Our competitors provide 6 months, 3 months, Canada even 11 months of leave.
And then, how about equal pay, to support and reward the labor of women on the job? And efforts to make that pay good pay — a livable income, higher minimum wage?
Now, which political party is working for these things?
( And, while I’m on the topic, there is no honor in taking on the mantle of “pro-life” — but providing higher infant mortality and higher maternal mortality. I’m looking at Texas and Missouri here, but it includes other states as well. )
scav
Vincente Fox should send him a gift-wrapped box of Duplos for Christmas. That’ll sort it.
Cermet
@Fair Economist: So on target and true.
Betty Cracker
@BC in Illinois: I like Pelosi’s tactic. It won’t reach the hardcore cultists, of course, but they’re a lost cause. It’s the truth, and saying it aloud is important in its own right.
Corner Stone
@gene108:
Where…where would one…umm, go to apply for the task of arbitrator for this feud? Asking for a friend.
Kraux Pas
Hey, how much of that $5 billion will they need to fight eminent domain claims?
Quinerly
Totally OT. The first sign that the world is coming to an end.? Keith has quit drinking. https://www.nme.com/news/music/keith-richards-cut-back-on-drinking-rolling-stones-interview-2419801
Mike in NC
$5 billion for the precious wall? Throw in cost overruns and other problems and I’m willing to bet the price tag would be a lot closer to $50 billion, and that’s not factoring in that most illegals enter the country at airports and seaports. The precious wall is a total joke, a Trumpian stunt.
gene108
@Gin & Tonic:
From your link
Pffffttt…If I was in Congress I would demand a 1000 ft high border wall, which is to be dug 1000 ft below the ground, in order to avoid anyone tunneling under it. I would then allocate money for the State Department to set up a special division, whose only job is to get Mexico to pay for it.
1. Trump gets the biggest wall ever built in human history
2. Mexico will pay for it, just like Trump promised
Everyone wins!!!
SFAW
@hueyplong:
Well, they would consider it, if it hadn’t fallen out of Nancy’s pocket, and gotten lost on the non-shag carpet.
SFAW
@gene108:
Win.
MattF
@laura: Yeah, Theissen was a major torture apologist in the Bush administration. It’s gobsmacking that the WaPo gave him a job. As is the ‘argument’ of “Just do what Trump wants and everything will be fine and dandy”.
Cermet
I recall reading in the Post that the speaker asked for no media after pictures; I bet she was willing to negotiate but typical males, a pissing match ensured. The orange fart cloud lost big time.
Booger
@gene108: Nixon/Paris Peace Talks, I assume.
Adam L Silverman
@gene108: Nixon using Kissinger, who was actually on LBJ’s payroll for the peace negotiations, to work with Madame Chenault to torpedo the Paris Peace talks and prolong the Vietnam War by promising the Vietnamese that if they didn’t agree, he’d be more likely to win, and he’d cut them a better deal. The Vietnamese did not come to an agreement in Paris, this did in fact increase Nixon’s electoral chances and he won. He then continued the war for six more years.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: 50 years. Sorry.
germy
@different-church-lady:
stinger
@kindness:
I have a thought.
Adam L Silverman
@Mart: That’s just crazy talk!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@different-church-lady: It’s crazier than that, more like
TRUMP: I NEED YOU TWO TO GO KILL ALL THE PUPPIES.
Dems: No, we are morally opposed to puppy killing. Do it yourself.
TRUMP: OH I COULD KILL ALL PUPPIES RIGHT NOW. IT WOULD BE THE BEST PUPPY KILLING EVER!
Dems: Then do it.
TRUMP: NOT WORTH IT! YOU DEMOCRATS KILL PUPPIES LIKE THE LAST PUPPY MASSACRE.
Dems: No, that was you who killed all those puppies.
TRUMP: YES I DID KILL ALL THE PUPPIES.
Dems: Then it’s President Trump puppy massacre.
TRUMP: YES IT IS MY PUPPY MASSACRE.
Dems: I think Mr Pence has just died from mortification.
Adam L Silverman
@jeffreyw: No. You will have credits assigned or taken away at whim. And you will like it. Or we will take away more credits.
MattF
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: It’s all those puppy-terrorists carrying leprosy and ebola and MS-13.
Kraux Pas
@Mike in NC:
Obviously our solution, in that case, is for the US shoot down any air or seacraft that may contain an immigrant who may potentially overstay her/his VISA.
Also, I love the term “illegals,” like that’s the very essence of their identity.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
I’m sure we all understand the basic political principles, right? If Democrats are out of power, they should compromise by voting for anything Republicans want without any Democratic amendments. If Democrats are in power, they should compromise by only passing legislation that Republicans will vote for.
Very straightforward, people. It’s all about bipartisanship and compromise.
BTW in that spirit and in the interest of resolving all that long-standing bitterness from the Civil War, I think the US should compromise by giving the Confederacy everything they wanted in 1860.
schrodingers_cat
@Corner Stone: I too remember it well. I was called Susan Sarandon for being unhappy with what the Ds were giving up to get an iffy tight rope walk to citizenship for the DACA recepients.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@gene108: Nixon and North Vietnam.
Fair Economist
@Cermet:
Skillfully as Pelosi handled the “tinkling contest”, her comments afterwards about how the contest was undesirable back you up. Even though she did well, she said it was nasty and undesirable.
That also matches her negotiating style – she tries to work out arrangements that make everybody look good even when there must be nastiness behind the scenes. Look how many of the Speakership rebels ended up getting leadership positions to work on things both they and Pelosi want. Likewise the resign-by-2022 promise. 2021-2 is our best shot at a trifecta in the next decade and she’ll be 82. I’ll bet she’s eager to retire after that and not spend her 80’s fighting thankless rearguard actions.
stinger
@gene108:
In light of what Trump is doing to Vietnamese immigrants and to legal immigrants who offer to foster children from the border prison camps, we know we cannot trust this administration to do either the decent thing or the thing he “agrees” to in negotiations. There is no negotiating with monsters.
Gex
How do we seriously have someone on here who calls them “illegals?” Why bother being on their side if you are going to adopt and reinforce right wing framing?
piratedan
anyone posting about the Butina plea agreement? Looks like AS’s post about multiple levels of penetration are now being confirmed that the Russian octopus had at least one tentacle firmly grasping the NRA as both a funding source and driving policy….
schrodingers_cat
@piratedan: Has anyone looked into Alex Jones finances?
MattF
@Fair Economist: Pelosi does her homework, and she works. And she doesn’t object to getting into a fight– not one bit.
Fair Economist
@schrodingers_cat:
As I see it, it was about $12,000 per Dreamer for indefinite residence and a road to citizenship, even if difficult. That seems like a really good deal to me. It’s not like the wall would do anything – there’s little sneaking across the Mexican border these days; undocumented immigrants get here via visa overstays.
Adam L Silverman
@Kraux Pas: Much more than $5 million.
hells littlest angel
I would be OK with Democrats promising Trump five billion, then later telling him he’s done a lousy job, so here’s five thousand, take it or leave it.
schrodingers_cat
Unless every immigrant who has immigrated since the Immigration and Nationality Act took effect is killed or deported, T and the anti-immigrant crew at FAIR and other Tanton think tanks that now staff USCIS and ICE will not be happy.
Fair Economist
@piratedan:
The RW media went nuts about the Russian communists when they didn’t really have much influence over us. Now Russian fascists really have what they were wetting their pants about mid-century and they don’t care.
schrodingers_cat
@Fair Economist: Its not just the money, the trade off included getting rid of entire Green Card categories, which would affect people who have been approved to get their GC but waiting for the appropriate quota to become available. Waiting sometimes for decades.
Adam L Silverman
@piratedan: I’m still trying to get through the analysis. Also, I use ALS for short hand. We appreciate your support!
jeffreyw
@Adam L Silverman: But but..
I don’t get out much, and this feud is something I knew nothing about! I’m socially handicapped! I think there’s a law – Americans with Social Disabilities Act?
Corner Stone
@stinger:
I could be wrong, and I’m not going to bother researching it, but I believe I saw that a significant number of Vietnamese in the US were very conservative and voted R. If that is true, I wonder what they are currently thinking?
schrodingers_cat
@Corner Stone: Asians have overwhelmingly voted D since at least Obama ran for the first time.
Corner Stone
@Fair Economist:
Again, this is assuming that, on its face, the deal was worth a shit to begin with. It was not. They poisoned it from the start and then were drooling to get the funding so they could Executive Order the shit out of it and kill everything they promised. Who would believe Trump in a deal?
Immanentize
I was wondering why, during the Nancy SMASH scene yesterday, didn’t the Dems bring up the dreamers. Then I remembered back to the last fight, and the media portrayed it as, Dems want too much! This time, they made Trump make the crazy demands with no counter demand in public. May have been another reason N. SMASH! wanted to go into a private setting…. But as it stands, the Dems are not demanding anything, just saying no to the crazy wall idea. Art of the deal….
Corner Stone
@schrodingers_cat: I think that’s true and am not arguing it since I’m too lazy to look deeply into it. I just recall seeing reporting that specifically Vietnamese, and more specifically boat people from a certain era, were more conservative type voters in a significant number. Maybe not a majority any longer but a chunk. I’m happy to be wrong there.
JustRuss
@piratedan:
By NRA you mean….National Russian Association?
MattF
Trump denies everything, says it’s all Cohen’s fault.
Betty Cracker
@Fair Economist: Thank you for pointing out that the vast majority of undocumented people entered the country legally and overstayed visas. I think the stat I read a while back was 2/3rds. That doesn’t get nearly enough attention.
piratedan
@Corner Stone: which makes me think that there are some very influential GOP building contractors out there so they can build their shitty wall and milk those contracts like their military contractors do….
MattF
@Corner Stone: My guess is that there’s a generational shift going on.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@stinger: I am wondering if Trump is dumping on the Vietnamese because they have a big population in California and this is some confused attempt by Dumb Ass Donny to hurt Peliso. San Fransico, Orange County, it’s all the same to Trump.
Mike in Pasadena
@Adam L Silverman: Trump and Republicans cannot be trusted as they will sneak some poison pill in after the negotiations, after the news reports a “deal.”
Kraux Pas
@schrodingers_cat:
Yes. But this particular subset?
schrodingers_cat
@Corner Stone: Possible, I haven’t seen the cross tabs.
Immanentize
@Adam L Silverman:
This would be a great book, especially if it came out around, I dunno, June 2020.
Ella in New Mexico
Uh, no, Jackhead. It’s because “The Wall” is a terrible, no good, very bad idea.
I fucking hate anyone who lives in a place other than a border area and has absolutely NO personal knowledge or understanding of border issues deciding what is best for us down here.
We DO need improved border security, particularly in our rural areas. Farmers and ranchers battle theft, vandalism and criminal activity on their property conducted by human traffickers and drug runners on a regular basis. My son’s will tell you that they and others who work in natural resources jobs requiring remote field work regularly bump up against armed, scary characters camping out on public lands.
So yeah, we need to protect innocent and law abiding people from danger out there. Taking care of this is pretty much left to thinly staffed local Sheriff’s departments to deal with, which means they’re pretty much out in the cold.
The kind of help they need should come in the form of increased HUMAN presence and electronic surveillance–CBP and law enforcement needs man and woman power, and funding to support them doing the job they were intended to do.
The wide-open natural spaces and private property of the border areas do NOT need a deficit-financed environmental and landscape monstrosity which everyone with a brain now accepts is just some mouth-far from this failure’s Mussolini-style campaign rallies and is really all he has left so he can’t back down.
Adam L Silverman
@jeffreyw: I didn’t write anything about either Taylor Swift or Katy Perry. So I have no idea what you’re on about.
Major Major Major Major
@germy: maybe you’re thinking of Hitler? Easy mistake to make
Oklahomo
@germy: Don’t forget Cillizza at CNN. ANALYSIS: Why puppy issues will backfire on Democrats.
The Moar You Know
Because Trump will renege on it. Guaranteed. See, Dems aren’t stupid, and Trump has a track record. A decades-long track record. Thiessen can ignore that, the GOP can ignore it, but we will not.
No deals with McConnell, no deals with Trump. Their word is worthless.
cmorenc
@Fair Economist:
Citation please to the specific Bible sections proclaiming this position? Not that I doubt you, but this info isn’t useful to carry forth into a discussion if another participant asks where the support for this proposition can be found, and the best I can do is: “dunno, some guy on the internet said that”. (and I’m not even sure it was a guy rather than a woman who said it).
Immanentize
@Quinerly: I love the fact that (as far as I know) Keith R. is the only rock star who had a song written for him that was itself a hit, imploring said rock star not to O.D.
Keith Don’t Go — Nils Lofgren
Adam L Silverman
@Immanentize: Pelosi knows, and I’d reckon that Schumer does as well, that the President only believes in zero sum outcomes to negotiations. For him to win, the other side has to not just clearly and completely loose, but he also has to extract an extra bit of sweetener for himself on the deal. You cannot negotiate with him like you would a normal person, because in a normal negotiation you’re trying to reach your best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA). Which is kind of misnamed because it is really a best alternative negotiated agreement. As in everyone gets enough of what they need to win and be able to live with the agreement. In reality this simply makes it impossible for anyone to actually negotiate with the President.
gwangung
@Kraux Pas: Vietnamese Americans tended more Republican, much like Cuban Americans did: the memory of Communist fighting.
Of course, right now, you have the younger Southeast Asian Americans screaming at the older generation: WILL YOU WAKE THE FUCK UP!
schrodingers_cat
@Kraux Pas: I don’t know actually. According to this 538 article only 20% Vietnamese Americans voted for T as opposed 46% for HRC. The rest were either undecided or refused to answer.
Ruckus
@dmsilev:
Fucking him. He can get his fox fix over the airways like the rest of the rural bigots that support him.
Adam L Silverman
@Betty Cracker: And while that’s a misdemeanor, there is actually no penalty for doing so, other than being told to leave the US, in the Federal code.
Gravenstone
@chopper: Why would they when he’d managed to negotiate it down to $5 billion all by himself? At this rate he’ll be down to $4.99 before we know it.
Immanentize
@Adam L Silverman: So true. It isn’t even positional bargaining. The Trump goal is humiliation, not success. And if humiliation of his opponent is off the table, which it is right now, he just walks away.
jeffreyw
@Adam L Silverman: Someone did! That’s exactly what I mean, I don’t know anything about it either!
Kraux Pas
@schrodingers_cat:
Yes, but the article also states they had previously been a lock for the Republican party. Then Trump came along. ETA: Actually it started a bit before that, but Trump is definitely in line with his party.
This may be one way Trump actually helped make America greater.
Fair Economist
@cmorenc: From Numbers 5:
Which means, obviously, goodbye adulterously conceived fetus.
Mike in DC
@JustRuss: National Racist Armory
Jeffro
WORLD OF JEFFRO NEWS FLASHES:
1) Attended the “Senatorial Roundtable” today in Arlington with Senators Warner and Kaine…VA is lucky to have two very smart, pragmatic, progressive, and funny senators who work so well together. Eye-popping on a wide range of issues. It is amazing to think what would happen in this country if we had more high-quality leadership in our Congress instead of scum like Ted Cruz and morons like Steve King. ah well. It was kind of cool to hear Warner and Kaine agreeing that VA doesn’t have to jump through hoops for Amazon…Amazon is coming here because of the high-quality k-12 schools and highly educated workforce. So true. Education is key, people – strong schools are the gold mines of the 21st century!
2) Got an email from RWNJ dad this morning that was like something straight out of Alex Jones or Qanon today – worse than the usual Fox regurgitation (although I think it started with a report from Fox). Poor Gen Flynn, a ‘good man’, was led astray by “sleaze” Peter Strozk, wasn’t read his rights, Strozk was sent by Comey, etc etc. ‘Deep State’ this, ‘gonna get to the bottom of this, FINALLY’ that. I basically told him to either shut the fuck up or wake the fuck up, no point in arguing anything else. ah well. One of the benefits of closing in on the big 5-0…I don’t have time for this crap at. all. and can say so. =)
So that’s that. Also, not one cent for Trumpov’s ego project (and that is exactly the messaging Dems should be using – no charge for that one, DNC!). Not one cent for this criminal’s vanity project, not one cent wasted on something that we already know won’t work.
catclub
@OzarkHillbilly:
s/save the life of every unimplanted human cell./control the sex lives of women/
Ruckus
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.):
No they don’t have any self respect.
They don’t need to trust him. He’s not screwing them personally, they are as bad as he is and want to have what he wants.
schrodingers_cat
@Kraux Pas: It started when R hardliners tanked the bipartisan immigration reform during Bush II’s second term.
In 2008
* Most naturalized citizens voted for Obama
* Most Asian Americans voted for Obama
* Over 70% South Asians voted for Obama.
All these groups voted for Obama in 2012 and HRC in 2016.
Vhh
@gene108: Nixon and Madame Chiang sabotaged LBJ’s Vietnam negotiations in 1968.
Betty Cracker
@Kraux Pas: Unfortunately, the effect wasn’t mirrored among Cuban American precincts in South Florida, which is why the blue wave mostly missed this state.
schrodingers_cat
There are sizable populations of Russian, and Irish visa overstays in NYC but I haven’t heard any stories of them being hassled in the last two years of Orange Terror. Coincidence? I think not.
Yarrow
@piratedan: Can’t wait for the evangelical organizations to get caught up in the Russian money laundering scheme. I’ve seen the beginnings of that coming out but not yet fully reported.
different-church-lady
@PST: It’s just trolling when there’s no concern.
Adam L Silverman
@Fair Economist: @cmorenc: The bible never actually mentions it at all. And before you start, I’ve actually published on this in an edited volume on religious bioethics published by Orbis Books. The only mention of anything that can even remotely be considered close to abortion comes in the Torah (the Law, the Five Books of Moses, the Septuagint). In the list of rules for damages and penalties from physically harming an another person, the text asserts (and I’m paraphrasing here and am doing so in English, not in Hebrew) that if two men fight in the marketplace and nock down a pregnant woman and kill her, then they are responsible for paying the blood price for an accidental death. However, if the only damage that she incurs is that she looses the developing foetus (in Hebrew there isn’t even a word for a foetus, so the euphemism: ish bi ish/human within the human is used), then they are only responsible for paying the penalty as if they accidentally amputated her pinky.
From this, the rabbinical legal scholars codified that a developing foetus had no intrinsic and inherent value separate from any other part of a pregnant woman’s body. The ultimate codification of this into applicable and controlling Judaic law comes from Maimonides. Maimonides states that since the Torah assigns no intrinsic and inherent value to a foetus separate from that of any other part of a pregnant woman’s body, then if a pregnant woman’s life is endangered by the foetus (ish bi ish), the foetus should be considered as if it is a rodeph/one who pursues another to take their life. As such, the foetus must be aborted to protect the life and health of the mother, to the point where it is required to dismember the foetus as it is being delivered limb by limb. Additionally, because the foetus is an appendage of the pregnant woman’s body, because it has no independent life and life force of its own until it is fully delivered, if a Jewish baby dies before it is 30 days old, it does not receive a ritual burial. it was never considered independently alive and distinct from one of it’s mother’s other body parts, just living off of her life force and energy and spirt. In Judaism ensoulment does not occur until that 30th day gives way to the 31st day of life. No soul means no independent life force. No independent life force means not really alive. Not really alive means no ritual burial. And this is also why naming ceremonies for Jewish children don’t formally occur until the 30th day or later after the child is born.
ETA: If you’re wondering why the Catholic position on this is different, given that it’s the same text, it is because there’s a mistranslation when this portion of the Torah went from the Hebrew to the Greek to the Latin. I’m pretty sure the error was between the Hebrew to the Greek, but don’t quote me on that. Basically a “not” got left out. As in “not liable for an accidental killing, just liable as if they accidentally amputated a finger”. The Catholic Church acknowledges the translation error, but indicates because the current position originated with a 19th century pope speaking in his official capacity, that it doesn’t matter, this is what the Deity wants.
Matt McIrvin
@Kraux Pas: The Republicans lost a lot of non-white immigrant groups in the years after 9/11, when the legal and bureaucratic seeds of Trump’s abuses were being planted. The one slightly weird blip is that according to some exit polling, Asians moved back to leaning slightly Republican in 2014, but flipped hard to the left again in 2016. I’ve had it pointed out that political assignments depend particularly heavily on age in these groups and that could just be the sign of a much older electorate turning out in the 2014 midterm.
JPL
What does everyone think about the person who worked on the Apprentice spilling the beans on Trump?
https://www.mediaite.com/donald-trump/former-apprentice-staffer-claims-trump-was-speed-freak-invited-teen-beauty-queens-to-his-suite/
I do think trump is cracking.
trollhattan
@Immanentize:
I thought the song was imploring him not to show up for his drug possession trial in Canada, so they couldn’t throw him in the Canuck clink?
Great song either way.
jonas
@schrodingers_cat: Not only that, it’s widely known that Trump expressly marketed a lot of his Florida condo developments to rich Russians looking for a US pied-a-terre so their wives could give birth to an anchor baby here.
sdhays
OT Anecdata: China is retaliating over the detention of the Huawei COO.
My wife is involved in a project through a prestigious US university to give some training in China. The project has been in development for most of a year and was due to actually kick off this month, but the Americans who were supposed to go failed to get visas, so the project is now on hold.
Despite what Xi may have said to PP in Argentina, I think American soybeans can look forward to another year of rotting in the fields. I just hope that it doesn’t get much worse before we’re able to pull the plug on this farce…
different-church-lady
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I’ve never been happier to be BJ commentariat!
Mandalay
I’m pretty confident that Rubio is considering running against Trump in 2020. Otherwise why would he have written this article for the Atlantic?….
ETA: Or maybe Rubio has already decided that Trump won’t be running in 2020, so he’s staking out the middle ground before others like Kasich can grab it?
J R in WV
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.):
SATSQ: Nope, no self respect whatsoever, at all, ever!!!
But you knew that, din’t you?
trollhattan
Virgin Galactic hit 82.7 km altitude today and this time, landed safely.
JaySinWA
@Adam L Silverman: I say give him what he wants. Tell him they are build a wall using the same stealth tech that they made the invisible planes out of. Since it is all super secret they funded it out of black ops funding to keep it out of sight so the money was secretly appropriated. They can produce a little feature with mimes and stuntmen wearing sombreros and striped ponchos demonstrating the effectiveness of the new wall. Done ahead of time and under budget!
Immanentize
@trollhattan: Is that what the anti-drug propogandists in your school told you? :-) One doesn’t write a song like that (which is still perhaps the best speaker-testing and placement hi-fi song around) to tell a guy to skip court.
The tell is the reference to Ol’ Jimi.
Brachiator
Yep. There were commenters here who earlier believed that offering Trump concessions on immigration might help Dreamers. They ignored the coming fucking over of undocumented people and their children, even though all the signs were right in front of them.
Democrats need to stand up for effective governance, not for massaging Trump’s ego.
trollhattan
@Mandalay:
I have a suggestion for Li’l Marco’s slogan: “Once a pinata is not enough!“
schrodingers_cat
@The Moar You Know: Agreed completely and any deal with Rs will only make the current problem worse. Our current immigration woes are thanks to the law that Gingrich’s Congress passed and Clinton signed.
The problem with immigration is not that it is too easy to immigrate but that it is unnecessarily hard and not all in tune with what the economy demands or supports. Making the path to becoming a permanent resident hard makes its easy to economically exploit immigrants at every strata of the economy from agricultural workers to doctors and programmers.
Take a look at this complicated flowchart to see the different paths to legal residence
And this is before any malicious tinkering that has gone on in the last two years in the name of MAGA.
Fair Economist
@Matt McIrvin:
A lot of the big swings is just who shows up. Younger voters swung away from us 2014 and back in 2016. It’s probably more that Republicans voted more in 2014, in all groups, and less in 2016, than huge shifts in preferences, although Trump probably did really drive some Asians away in 2016 with the America-for-white-people goals.
Some company polling a list of particular individuals from 2016 to 2018 found very little actual shifting – only about 2% from Republicans to Democrats, and that’s in an environment of extreme Republican misbehavior on all levels. The much larger vote shift presumably is from differential turnout, again.
J R in WV
@gene108:
Nixon interfered with the Paris Peace Accord meetings behind the scenes during the 1968 presidential elections season. He secretly told Hanoi negotiators that he, NIxon, would give them a much better deal if they refused to work with LBJ, believing that a failure at the peace talks would help his election prospects.
Treason all over that bad boy!!
patrick II
“Build a Wall” was a line Trump threw into a speech that got a good response, so he used it again and again. It turned into a chant, adding “and who’s going to pay for it?”. It has about as much practicality and reasonableness as “Lock Her Up”, but that doesn’t stop him from trying to get the F.B.I. go after her anyway. I’m glad he didn’t chant “Stars and Bars forever” or the Post would be saying let’s trade away food stamps so we all don’t have to wear stars and bars. Responding to the inane as if it is reasonable compromise between reasonable people is just crazy.
trollhattan
@Immanentize:
Heh.
In the live version he adds a line about not showing up to court in Toronto. Being topical, I suppose.
sdhays
@Adam L Silverman: That’s really interesting. I continue to be amazed at the things you know in so much detail!
Jeffro
@Mandalay: Rubio can try all he wants, GOP primary voters won’t support him. Rubio’s opponents will note how Trumpov humiliated him, to which Rubio responded by licking Trumpov’s boots. He can’t run as the new Trumpov and he can’t run against Trumpov, so I think his goose is cooked.
trollhattan
@J R in WV:
Pretty sure Nixon also reached out to the South Vietnamese and got them to stall talks on their end. He quite literally raised the body count of US and Vietnamese troops and civilians via his delay outreach.
MattF
@Mandalay: Except that it’s Rubio, i.e., Senator Gutless.
gwangung
@Fair Economist: Still, it is possible for singular political events to turn around the demographics: See Prop 187, California and Latinx voters.
I’m pretty sure this immigrant action is going to do the same for Asian American voters; it strikes into the heart of the community leadership and the elders. (Possible exception of more recent asshole Chinese immigrants who didn’t leave through the 80s and 90s Asian American community building).
Amir Khalid
@Immanentize:
Keef must resent the hell out of a song that’s basically Nils telling him to clean up his act. He’s not one for being preached at.
Adam L Silverman
@Immanentize:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/how-trump-learned-to-be-a-predator
catclub
@trollhattan: Rubio is getting credit for realizing this. When everyone should be yelling at him that everyone knew this when you voted for the bill, and you still voted for it, you stupid git.
Betty Cracker
@Mandalay: Rubio would be a lot more credible on this issue if he hadn’t just voted for a plutocrat-friendly tax bill that resulted in about $800B in stock buybacks. Also, I can’t help but notice that 99% of the people who regularly use the phrase “dignity of work” have never done a hard day’s work in their pampered princeling lives.
I agree, though — the timing of Rubio’s transformation is suspicious. As I mentioned the other day, I suspect Romney is positioning himself as post-Trump GOP savior too. Maybe they have more information than we do on the ton of bricks that’s about to land on Trump. At least, I hope that’s the case.
Adam L Silverman
@jeffreyw: Your failure to stay properly informed had been noted and will most likely result in further reductions in your Balloon Juice social credit rating.
sdhays
@trollhattan: This and Iran Contra show that it pays to betray your country as long as you do it on a large enough scale. We really need to change that.
Corner Stone
@JPL:
I think it’s *fabulous*! They all know what Trump did and I just wish more would come forward with it.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro:
This is crazy talk. Why do you hate America?
catclub
@gwangung:
Kevin Drum has a post – today! that the Prop 187 turnaround is a myth, that is better explained by the change in Demographics of California.
As the minority population of California increased, Democratic success, and GOP failure, marched on. Prop or no Prop.
catclub
@Corner Stone: I think it is pointless now, but might have made a difference in 2016.
LongHairedWeirdo
@Adam L Silverman: It’s also worth noting that the Fundamentalists cheerfully said that this was the obvious, eternal, clear (and did we mention ETERNAL?) message from God.
RIGHT UP until they needed a weapon to use to rile people up, at which point the obvious, eternal, clear (and did we mention ETERNAL?) message was that abortion was murder. See, they were having a problem: bigoted schools that used religion to excuse their bigotry were told they had to obey secular law to get secular $$$. And they couldn’t really whip up outrage over “Christian college can’t discriminate against non-white folks,” so they decided to use abortion as their flogging horse.
That there are two obvious, clear, and ETERNAL messages would be hideously shameful to anyone vulnerable to shame. That the message they flog is one that can promote open warfare would also be shameful if they cared about society, rather than personal power.
Alas, there is a problem: lots of people have grown up hearing this sort of BS and they believe it just as people grew up believing that Columbus “proved” the earth was round, and it’s hard to let go of something you’ve been taught all your life.
waspuppet
Well, to be fair, I remember all of these Very Concerned and Centrist Republicans Who Just Want to Get Things Done telling Republicans to drop their efforts to repeal Obamacare in return for something they want — and doing it in an enormously condescending manner, like they’re talking to 5-year-olds.
Oh wait — no, I don’t remember any of that.Fuck em.
Mandalay
@trollhattan:
Exactly. Rubio voted for the corporate tax cut a year ago, and now he’s now clutching his pearls about that same tax cut?
I hope he runs, and I hope his Republican rivals toss him in a wood chipper during a presidential debate. He’s a worthless fraud, and cares about nothing beyond self-aggrandizement.
catclub
@Betty Cracker:
I doubt it. I think the demands of the calendar are: If Trump falls, you better have positioned yourself out front early. If Trump does not fall, it won’t be noticed whatever you did in 2018.
Corner Stone
@catclub: Well, since we can’t go back, all we can hope for is a further shrinking of the GOP and a chipping away at GOP-lite type voters. Put policies in place that shore up our coalition/base and then keep having this kind of revelation come out. If it’s true, then Trump has a real documented problem with underage girls. And we saw that small fracture take effect in AL Senate race…
catclub
@Mandalay:
Like Lindsey Graham being upset there is gambling in the Saudi casino that he and his friends bought.
Adam L Silverman
@sdhays: Probably a good thing as the PRC has now scarfed up two Canadians, one a former diplomat, on spurious charges over this.
ljdramone
@Gin & Tonic: DHS is absolutely correct! Damn straight! Walls work!
How many Fascists invaded the German Democratic Republic across the Antifaschistischer Schutzwall [Anti-Fascist Protection Wall] between 1961 and 1989?
None, zip, zero, nada! That’s how many.
Checkmate, libtards!
Immanentize
@Amir Khalid: Keith and Nils have been rock colleagues if not close friends for a long time — In fact Nils asked Keith whether he could convince Ron Wood to let him join the stones after Brian Jones died. Of course, he didn’t get that gig, but he did ultimately get the gig with Bruce and Little Stevie.
Adam L Silverman
@sdhays: I continue to be amazed that I know this stuff and there’s no way to monetize any of it!
Thanks for the kind words though!
germy
Former Apprentice staffer:
“If Trump had a cooking show they’d caught the douchebag diet. McDonald’s…and girls that look like Ivanka are all he ever eats.”
trollhattan
@catclub:
If one were to imagine how Prop 187 did statewide, county by county, one would not imagine this map. 59%, it got.
different-church-lady
@Adam L Silverman: Only a certain kind of person falls for this.
But as it turns out, about 46% of the population is that kind of person.
different-church-lady
@Adam L Silverman: Dude… Jeopardy contestant.
Adam L Silverman
@LongHairedWeirdo: Yep.
Adam L Silverman
@germy:
Mandalay
@Jeffro:
You have a point, though most of Rubio’s opponents also ended up as bootlickers. All who ran against Trump except Kasich have been diminished, and stand little chance in 2020.
Kasich and Romney look likely contenders if Trump is gone. Romney has the advantage of having been very accurate about Russia, making it very clear that Russia was not our friend, not to be trusted and was a threat to our national security. Given the ability of Republican voters to swallow whatever is stuffed down their throats, that probably won’t hurt him.
The disadvantage for both Kasich and Romney is that AFAIK they are not even closet racists.
Adam L Silverman
@different-church-lady: Didn’t make it out of the remote screening for the college tournament. Got caught in a five way tie. They could only send 3 possibilities forward from the site. So instead of doing a runoff, they drew the names out of a hat.
sdhays
@Adam L Silverman: Indeed. But the fact that they’re retaliating even at this non-governmental, small-fry level suggests that relations are deteriorating even more rapidly than I had previously thought.
Adam L Silverman
@sdhays: Yep.
smintheus
Why would any Democrat assume that Trump would keep to a deal even if he agreed to it? The guy has been more than willing to throw the children of asylum seekers in concentration camps, he’s capable of stooping to anything.
The only thing I’d be willing to offer to Trump is a long stretch in jail.
Brachiator
@Matt McIrvin:
Some of this reporting is wildly inaccurate. Asian American groups are so small in comparison the other demographic groups that improper weighting results in bad conclusions.
But the main problem is reporting that treats Asian Americans as a monolith. Chinese Americans, Japanese American, Filipino Americans, to note just a few, have complex and varied political and social views. And then when you dig into age and gender, there is even more divergence.
That said, there has been a strong reaction to the naked racism and nationalism espoused by Republicans that has pushed Asians more toward the Democrats. Obama’s example also had a profound impact after 2008.
stinger
@Adam L Silverman: Having lost a parent to the disease, I’d have a very hard time referring to you as “ALS”.
J R in WV
@Fair Economist:
But the actual uncomfortable fact is that the Republicans never intend to allow DACA people to become citizens, Never EVER NEVER!!!
So any “deal” Liberals strike with the Rs regarding DACA that doesn’t explicitly provide immediate citizenship, no if, no buts, no exceptions to ALL DACA applicants — which will never even be on the table — is a bad deal for Liberals and DACA applicants.
lurker dean
@schrodingers_cat: i’m filipino. my bro sent me this yesterday, we were shocked there are so many filipino trump lovers.
https://twitter.com/AAPIData/status/1049768319715225603 (scroll down for more graphics)
we had no idea filipinos were so bad. i had no idea vietnamese were even worse, at least wrt trump favorability.
it’s really something when brown immigrants worship a white supremacist.
Adam L Silverman
@stinger: I understand. Feel free to use AS. I just always use my middle initial.
Mart
@JPL: Trump is a teenage beauty queen child molester who snorts crushed amphetamine pills is a weird comedy stand up routine.
raven
@Immanentize: We have 352 folks signed up for the FLC’s as of now. A third of what we hope for but pretty good!
Steeplejack
As an antidote to all the bad Trump news, here is a great Twitter thread. The Times asked for experiences of petty crime in London. Hilarity ensued.
trollhattan
@lurker dean:
That could help explain Duterte. He and Trump are soulmates in many ways.
stinger
@Corner Stone:
Maybe because Republican Jerry Ford was president when the US sponsored the initial evacuation of 125K refugees? I could see how that might influence voting patterns among those impacted, even long past the era of decent Republicans in government.
Brachiator
@Adam L Silverman:
Absolutely.
Also, Trump is simple and stubborn. He has consistently and insistently called for a wall, and for racist, nationalist immigration policies. No matter what he promises, he will come back to this. Just as he keeps coming back to tariffs because he is convinced that they work, no matter how many of the Americans he claims to care about are hurt by his intellectually empty economics “policies.”
sdhays
@Mandalay: Kasich bet his political future on the idea that the post-Trump Republican Party will regret having supported Trump and want to repudiate him. Rmoney is just a weird, delusional loser.
I think Kasich is going to find that he’s wrong – it’s going to take a long time for the Republican Party to work their love for white supremacy out of their system now that they’ve been allowed to mainline it for the past 3 years, and no one who wasn’t in the in-group on supporting PP, even if they eventually defenestrate him “in sorrow”, will be acceptable.
raven
@Mart: We’ll here I sit, all alone with a broken heart,. I took three bennies and my semi-truck won’t start!
raven
@Brachiator: The Alps were a simple people, they lived on a diet of rice and old shoes. . . “!
Mart
@raven: Thanks, a little Commander Cody is good for my spirits.
jeffreyw
@Adam L Silverman:
Maybe I can float a loan from @CornerStone?
rikyrah
@Adam L Silverman:
nothing but THE TRUTH
J R in WV
@Adam L Silverman:
So! You confess to not providing analysis of the most important social issues of our day, regarding Taylor Swift and Katy Perry — whoever they are? Curses!!! ;-)
//
I actually do know who they are, I just think their personal interactions should be just that — personal and not public.
I also see from Google “news” that Taylor Swift may feel the need to use facial recognition tech to help protect her from stalkers, and I think that’s a real shame. I’m sure the fear is real and that there are stalkers out there. Not sure her use of the tech is real or not. A shame any way you look at it.
Searcher
I mean, the underwear models thing is just good sense.
They’ve obviously got nothing to hide.
raven
@Mart: I about teared up when I went down the rathole to see Nicolette Larson do this.
Corner Stone
@jeffreyw: Of course, of course! Let me just get my rate sheet out here…Now. Do you happen to have any first born? And please do keep in mind that your previous refusal to gay marry me so that I can eat delicious victuals may, in fact, come back to bite you. As it were.
Mart
@raven: Not familiar – or forgot about her. Shame she died so young. Wiki notes she worked with a lot of the outlaw country boys of the 70’s. What’s not to love?
eclare
@Steeplejack: Those are good! That British sense of humour.
Ladyraxterinok
@kindness: He thinks people subscribe so they can have tbeir negative comments posted?? So the more wretched columnists the better??
schrodingers_cat
@lurker dean:Are all the respondents citizens? Because right now many who are not are just trying to keep their head down and not attract undue attention to themselves. Also too, every group has its share of nitwits and assholes. Your Raj Shahs and Dinesh D’souzas.
stinger
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I’m sure it’s all to the good, in his pea-brained head.
stinger
@Immanentize: What a GREAT idea! Write it, Adam, write it!
Ladyraxterinok
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.): Uhhhh..NO!
HeleninEire
@schrodingers_cat: Yes. I tell all my Irish friends. Come to NY. Keep your head down and no one will care. Get a job in a pub in Woodside where all the illegal Irish go and you will be fine.
J R in WV
@Betty Cracker:
Rubio is one of the most obvious walking around examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect — too stupid to notice how stupid he really is. Also never worked hard a single day in his life.
Boot camp would be a good learning experience for Li’l Marco.
Uncle Ebeneezer
@Kraux Pas: According to the National Asian-American Survey, Vietnamese-Americans voted 61% for Hillary and 34% for Trump. About the same as Chinese-Americans (see page 15.)
Both are more conservative than other Asian-American groups but still pretty damn liberal.
http://naasurvey.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/NAAS16-post-election-report.pdf
James E Powell
@catclub:
I think Kevin Drum is overlooking the long term impact of branding. Prop 187 was a clear declaration that the Republicans were the “We don’t like Mexicans” party.
Ladyraxterinok
@Fair Economist: See Fred Clark in his blog slacktivist at patheos. He’s posted several times about how the Evangelicals did a 180degree turn on abortion in the late 70s.
He points to an article supporting abortion in a prominent journal by a SoBaptist leader. Shortly thereafter ‘everyone’ was anti. Clark states this new litmus test for Real True Christitians was the result of some powerful people looking for a hot button issue to get GOP votes once school desegregation had become less a major concern.
IIRC there are other people making the same point—GOP needed new issue to get Evangelical votes so PUSH ANTIABORTION 24/7!!!
James E Powell
@J R in WV:
Rubio is proof that you can fool some of the people all of the time, all of the people some of the time, but Florida voters are fucking insane!
catclub
@James E Powell:
Rick Scott steals from medicare. medicare is the only thing old people in Florida worry about. They elect Rick Scott Governor, then senator, so he can destroy medicare. Insane is right.
Ladyraxterinok
@piratedan: Major environmental impact–destruction of an important butterfly sanctuary that stands where ‘our glorious wall MUST be built’!!
Would it be possible to run a major ad campaign directed especially at children talking about the coming destruction of the ‘beautiful butterflies’!?!?
During the antismoking campaign many children begged their parents to stop smoking. I had friends who stopped because of their childrens’ pleas!
Peale
@James E Powell: Was there a “mexican voter surge” though? It took another 20 years for the Democrats to gain control. The prop 187 story is a great story that liberals tell themselves that all they have to do is wait for the fallout to hit the GOP. The fallout from having an openly anti-immigrant candidate at the top of the ticket is clear: you can insult hipanics all you want and participation rates will go down. I’m sure having Trump on the top of the ticket will ensure a wipeout of the GOP sometime around 2036.
Ladyraxterinok
@BC in Illinois: IIRC Germany has some promise that a woman will get her same job back after x year(s) caring for a new child. At least that was so in early 90s.
raven
@raven: She looks a lot like my X.
Ladyraxterinok
@cmorenc: Fred Clark has several posts sbout these OT verses at his blog slacktivist at patheos. Just go to blog and search for ‘abortion.’
Clark grew up in conservatine Baptist churches, so he knows the background and culture well.
zhena gogolia
@Steeplejack:
Hilarious!
The Moar You Know
@Peale: No, there was not (Hispanics still have a dismaying low rate of voter participation, and recent actions by the Trump admin show why that might be – show up to vote and you might just get deported) and your post points out an argument which, as a lifelong California voter, I know is bullshit: there is no “demographic wave’ coming to save us and usher in a new era of permanent Democratic rule.
smedley the uncertain
Didn’t know that. Citation please, so I can add to my Pro-Choice file.
smedley the uncertain
ETA: Sorry. Didn’t read the rest of the posts. Missed Silverman’s discussion. Such a wise man…
Ladyraxterinok
@Yarrow: IMHO we should look first at Franklin Graham, then Falwell Jr. I’m somewhat afraid to see what might show up if we looked into tbe finances of some SoBaptist leaders. IIRC Cruz and family are members of Second Baptist in Houston.
IIRC this type of investigation would be very difficult. Churches and religious organizations do not have to provide any financial info to IRS. Many local churches do NOT allow members to know what the preacher makes.
Some trs ago Sen Grassley (yes, that IA senator) demanded fonancial info from 6 major ministries because (I think) of some complaints.
IIRChe got info from Joyce Meyer, Benny Hinn, maybe Creflo Dollar. Kenneth Copeland stonewalled the request. IIRC, Copeland is the richeshest televangelist.
People we might considervinvestigating–Paula White, T’s personal minister; Rodney Howard Browne, the SoAfrican who has a so-calked ‘lsughing ministry’ and has led Evangelicals in ‘laying hands’ on T; Jesse Duplantis, the televsngelidt who recived a message from god that he was to get a new jet ; JimBakker, who’s building a gigantic compound near Branson MO selling survivslist food buckets, and having super pro T guests praising T as ‘god’s annointed one’ and castigating all who oppose him as Satanic
stinger
@Ladyraxterinok:
That is a great idea!
stinger
@HeleninEire: Any chance that it could work the other way around? That I could hide out in Dublin or Cork, get a job, etc., live in Ireland for years?
Ladyraxterinok
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you for this very helpful info. Also about mistranslation and pope’s ‘infallible’ proclamation despite being contrary to the ‘oringinal words’ of the Bible.
catclub
@stinger: I was thinking the opposite. It seems like the least likely to make sense.
“How the heck would a wall make any difference to butterflies?
They can fly over it.”
Brachiator
@Ladyraxterinok:
Not entirely true.
Sad, but true. There is often some board, or group of deacons, etc., that know this, but churches are often stupid about withholding information about ministers, even though the flock is paying these fraudsters.
lurker dean
@schrodingers_cat: looking at the report, it says the respondents are voters, so presumably citizens.
“This report presents the results of interviews conducted by
telephone and online from August 23 to October 4, 2018, of 1,316 registered voters who
identify as Asian American, producing an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 3%.”
lurker dean
@trollhattan: yes, they love their strong men, like duterte, and even marcos, whose reputation is inexplicably undergoing constant rehabilitation. as one filipino author says, brown skins, white minds – several centuries of colonial rule will do that. that’s the only explanation i have for brown immigrants looking favorably on a white supremacist.