Mueller, as we know, is a Special Counsel not a Special Prosecutor.
He was appointed as a specific result of Comey being fired and was effectively tasked with playing a role closer to a head of the FBI than a federal prosecutor.
His role is primarily investigatory.
2/
— The Hoarse Whisperer (@HoarseWisperer) February 21, 2019
The Hoarse Whisperer (International horse of mystery. Here until the treason stops.) had an interesting theory on the end of the Mueller investigation:
2/We all see Mueller as more of a prosecutor than a head of the FBI though… even though his primary credential for the Special Counsel role post-Comey was his tenure as the Director of the FBI BEFORE Comey.
When you view Mueller’s work through that lens it makes more sense.
3/Mueller has been tasked with unraveling Russian election interference and any involvement by the Trump campaign.
That is, overseeing the investigation right up to the point of potentially recommending charges and prosecutions… and then handing over the findings.
4/That’s less toothless than it sounds. While it doesn’t feel like a route to justice, it is no different than how the FBI typically works.
The FBI doesn’t prosecute per se. They unravel crimes and then engage prosecutors to seek indictments and pursue prosecutions.
5/ In a way, we’ve all been conditioned to see Mueller as a one-stop investigator/prosecutor.We’ve seen his work produce a long list of high-profile indictments and, naturally, played that forward to expect he’d drop indictments all the way to the Oval Office.
6/However, if you look at those indictments through the above lens (Mueller as investigator not prosecutor) it seems clear he has primarily targeted valuable sources of further information.
He hasn’t indicted any dead ends.
He has targeted people with something to offer.
7/It started with Flynn and Papadopoulos. Then Gates and Manafort. Then Cohen. Now Stone.
He has targeted people with info and significant incentive to give it up.
He has skipped people who will likely never roll over on Trump – like Junior.
8/In other words, he has been pursuing indictments as INVESTIGATIVE TOOL first rather than as prosecution end points.
Mueller’s explicit task was to unravel the full story of Russia’s election meddling and the Trump camp’s involvement.
That’s what he has been doing.
9/His task was never to oversee both the unraveling of the story AND the prosecutions of all identified law-breakers because again, he’s a proxy for Comey… not the Attoeney General.
Which brings us to the news reports that he’s wrapping up his work and drafting a report…
10/Following the above line of thinking, Mueller’s work would be completed when he felt he had satisfactorily completed the investigation.
That is, when he had unraveled the story to the point of being able to lay it out in detail supported by evidence.
11/If Mueller has reached the point of writing a report, it means he feels he has gathered all the evidence he needs to lay out the full Trump-Russia narrative.
That is not only not a bad thing; it represents an inflection point that will be nerve-racking but likely positive.
12/Mueller having a comprehensive story to tell is the tipping point.
It’s the moment when we go from a slow drip-drip-drip of indictments to a firehose of information on the whole sordid affair.
13/Before going further, let’s take one quick side trip to something Andrew McCabe revealed this week…
In multiple interviews, McCabe explained that his primary focus in the days before Mueller joined was on Trump-proofing the evidence and investigations.
14/Meaning, making it impossible for Trump or his allies to bury or destroy evidence or kill the investigation in one fell swoop.
McCabe hasn’t explained what steps the FBI took but we can make an educated guess.
15/The most logical way IMHO would be to both federate and matrix the work.
Meaning:
1) Federate – distribute portions of the investigations to multiple teams in multiple places
2) Matrix – interlace the work across those teams so each was working as a leader and contributor
16/By both distributing investigative work to multiple groups and having those multiple groups working collaboratively, investigations and evidence couldn’t be “disappeared” without essentially shutting down everyone and everything.
Firing one person wouldn’t help…
17/Bringing it back around to Mueller…
Again, he was the former Director of the FBI.
It is absolutely impossible to believe that McCabe didn’t both brief him on those safeguards and work with him to strengthen them over the past 21 months.
18/A logical way to do that?
Distribute the myriad cases resulting from Mueller’s work back down into the FBI.
Federate and matrix.
Doing so would eliminate the risk that justice could be thwarted by merely burying Mueller’s report.
19/If Mueller’s report died in William Barr’s bottom drawer, Justice would die along with it.
If each chargeable offense was independently being pushed forward by the FBI / DOJ prosecutors, Barr would have to thwart case after case after case one by one.
Too public to stand.
20/This is already too long, so I’ll wrap it up…
If Mueller is truly writing his report, we can anxiously await its arrival with eagerness rather than dread.
It will likely be comprehensive, damning and obstruction-proof.
It isn’t an endpoint. It’s the turbo moment.
21/Trump sees the Mueller report as the final chapter. A retrospective summary. A backward-looking document.
Instead, it’ll likely be an analysis and roadmap. It’ll lay out the myriad cases against myriad actors…
…and it’ll make clear those cases are already en route.
22/Don’t lose sleep worrying about the Mueller investigation or report.
The train can’t be stopped at this point.
One big reason: it isn’t one train. It’s myriad trains on myriad tracks overseen by engineers far smarter than the orange-faced doofus in a conductor’s hat.
23/23
Sharing because it helped me tamp down my anxiety.
Open thread
Cheryl Rofer
Here’s a tweet thread I did on Wednesday, which complements The Hoarse Whisperer’s.
laura
This places Schiff’s call out the Republicans in a very understandable context. Whether, when and how they respond will be interesting.
I’m bracing for more forelock tugging, and weak tea statements and whataboutism.
satby
The waiting is the hardest part.
satby
And while we’re talking about next steps, Tom Steyer is setting up a postcard campaign to pressure Congress to start impeachment proceedings. Here They’ll send you 25 stamped, ready to go postcards. Already signed up for mine!
A Ghost To Most
Robert Kraft, owner of the MAGAtriots, arrested for solicitation of prostitution in Jupiter, Fla.
Hah-hah.
patrick II
I saw McCabe interviewed on Ari last night. I was not impressed, but it would be too long of a comment to lay out why. But he seems to want to take credit for the plan to spread out the information so the information would not go away with the new administration. That plan did not originate with him, that directive came from the White House through Holder and Brennan and down to the appropriate agencies. McCabe was being a good soldier not a heroic anti-Trump figure, and a little late in the game after helping Comey undermine Clinton. McCabe helped make his own (and all of our) Trump problem. McCabe is a republican bureaucrat with little imagination.
Renie
If you are getting stressed by all this, check out today’s story from Sheffield, England I saw on soonergrunt’s twitter. Today is the 75th anniversary of the Mi Amigo plane crash of 10 US servicemen. Tony Foulds who was 8 years and saw the crash has worked all these years to get a flypast for the men. Today it happened. Very moving and heartwarming story.
Story
dmsilev
Someone wrote into TPM with a very good point: If, despite all expectations, Mueller’s report exonerates Trump himself of any wrongdoing (i.e. that he was ignorant of all of the stuff going on), we can expect to see the full report released immediately no matter what else it contains. Because Trump is the only thing that matters to Trump. Anything that is held back, redacted, kept secret, etc. etc. is a tell that perhaps it’s not quite so glowing towards Him.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’ve had the same thought. The word “impeachment” will be, effectively, a government shutdown, but in another sense, the impeachment procedure begins as soon as Schiff, Nadler and/or Cummings start their first public hearing.
A lot of people talk about Impeachment as if it’s one vote in the House, or one committee, something that will happen fast. Public hearings are essential for bringing the public along
MattF
These are the reasons Mueller makes Trump unhappy. Trump’s guardians are being removed, one by one. The lies are coming undone, one by one. I think uncovering Trump’s real financial status is the next step, but I can see why Mueller would step back from that. But it’s coming– think ‘Russian money-laundering’.
Matt Smith
From your tweets to God’s screen.
Skepticat
Very helpful and yes, encouraging. I don’t think most people (certainly not I) have looked at it from this perspective.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@A Ghost To Most: this sounds like a horrific human trafficking case
eclare
Robert Kraft picked up for solicitation. On the phone so no link, but just google it. Always projection with these assholes.
Jeffro
It’s-a gonna be-a EPIC!
The possibilities are practically endless here…can’t. wait!
C Stars
The Mueller report will not save us, and I think the last two and a half years have demonstrated pretty comprehensively that the Republicans in Congress would happily allow Trump to burn the Constitution, if that were his whim (literally–I know metaphorically we’re already there).
I just very sincerely doubt impeachment is going to happen. Trump and the GOP need to sustain enough damage–and the resistance needs to work its ass off–so that he cannot be reelected, nor can his enablers. That’s it, that’s all there is to it. “Mueller Time” will not be “the Silver Bullet.” (sorry………!)
Guys, Mueller’s a conservative Republican. Why are we 100% sure that he even wants to remove Trump or discredit the Republicans?
I’ll be happy if he proves me wrong.
kindness
My only fear is that Trump and his minions are successful at burying the report and data collected. I am less fearful as time goes on, but with this Republican Party, who needs to worry about treasonous actors?
MattF
@C Stars: It’s up to the Speaker. I actually trust her to make the right call, whatever it may be.
Skepticat
@A Ghost To Most: I’m *almost* embarrassed by the degree of schadenfreude I feel. If only Brady were with him.
eclare
@Skepticat: I’m not! And yes, Tom would be icing on the cake. Sounds like a horrible trafficking situatiom.
C Stars
@MattF: I do too. I mean, if there’s anything positive to come of this whole fiasco it’s that Democratic leaders are now being seen, in stark relief, as truly the only adults in the room. And Pelosi is one helluvan adult.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@kindness: IANAL, but the NYT is reporting that the Manhattan DA is preparing charges for Manafort. I gotta think that if there are any state charges that can be brought on trump, or Junior, or Jared, they’ll do it. I would think the NY prosecutor who took down trump would have their career made, at least at the state level.
@Skepticat: @eclare: I had the same thought. But if there were any player going with the old man to “massage parlors”, wouldn’t it be Gronk?
japa21
@C Stars:
Mainly because he is one of those rarest of creatures: a Republican with a sense of honor and duty.
schrodingers_cat
I am going to keep a count of how many new nyms show up to piss and moan and tell us how everything is lost and we are doomed.
A Ghost To Most
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yes it does, but Kraft is the John, not the pimps. Was he aware the girls were trafficked? If so, a whole different deal.
Porky Pine
@patrick II: While I don’t dispute the assessment that McCabe is a Republican bureaucrat, I have to point out that your timeline is a bit off. McCabe was speaking to his efforts in May 2017, in the wake of Comey’s dismissal, to link investigation of Trump for both obstruction of justice and possible counterintelligence charges to the already-established counterintelligence investigation, begun in summer 2016, dealing with George Papadopoulos and Carter Page. The Obama administration’s efforts in its final days to ensure that the Russia investigation was sufficiently embedded not to be buried preceded McCabe’s action–that’s why he had an active investigation to link to–but Eric Holder and John Brennan were gone as of Jan. 20, 2017.
C Stars
@japa21: I really hope he is. I know as Democrats we’re all very invested in that particular perception of his character. But in the last two years there have been many other Republicans who we were convinced had honor (not even a LOT of it, just a smidge, just an iota, just enough to do the right thing one time), and…well, we know how that ends.
trollhattan
@A Ghost To Most:
Lovely. How far is Jupiter, FL from Mar A Trumpo? How far from the Dolphins training camp? (Boy should know better than to think he’d get preferential treatment.)
A Ghost To Most
@schrodingers_cat: A pox on them. Things haven’t looked this good in 2+ years. The tide has turned.
Matt McIrvin
We know Mueller likely believes he can’t indict Trump (whether that belief is true or not), so it was never clear to me that there was any plausible endgame that resulted in Trump being somehow taken down directly. Mueller has actually done a lot already, and there’s a Democratic House now that can start its own investigation not ultimately under DoJ (or Devin Nunes) control.
We also know Trump is going to claim total vindication no matter what the report says about him, because that’s what he does, so take that as a given. I don’t think he’s going to resign, and I don’t really think he’s going to be impeached and convicted–his public support seems to have returned to its low-but-not-catastrophic pre-shutdown mean, and that’s the main thing that matters there.
I do think the report is likely to point at a lot of crimes committed by the administration, in addition to the ones for which there are already public indictments. The main question is just how much political damage the report is going to do, and how much fodder it gives his opponent in 2020.
debit
@schrodingers_cat: I wish there was an option like on twitter to just mute keywords.
@C Stars: Right, because everything he’s done so far points to wanting to cover up crime. Try harder new name doom sayer.
DCrefugee
Look, just as was the case this time a year ago, everything hinges on the next election. For example, it won’t do us any good if Agent Orange is impeached and removed from office if Prez Pence can gin up enough sympathy and shenanigans to get re-elected. A, potentially he’d have two full terms plus time served; B, even with a Dem Congress (H & S), nothing’s going to get done.
We all did very well in the 2018 midterms. We have to do it again in 2020 or we’re doomed to a “Groundhog Day”-like existence where no real progress is made.
The smart, long-term play here is to let this drip, drip, drip into the electorate’s consciousness until November 2020, with copious public hearings on the Hill and a lot of court appearances. Having whomever-the-Dem-is run against an all-but-indicted-Agent Orange will help assure a Dem Congress and a Dem White House.
The next presidential term is too important to not think about the long game, and what unexpected and unpleasant things can come after impeachment and removal.
oldgold
[email protected]satby:
The waiting has been maddening and Mueller’s opacity has exacerbated it.
That expressed, all things considered, Robert Mueller appears to have conducted this extraordinarily complex investigation in a professional and competent manner. But, a few well drafted declaratory sentences from the OSC , from time to time over the past 22 months as to the general status of the investigation would have been helpful.
Gin & Tonic
Open thread? My google-fu is failing me today. I’m trying to find a historical record of the amount you’re allowed in earned income while drawing SS retirement benefits. In 2019, it’s ~17k if you’re not at full retirement age, and something like $46k in the year you reach full retirement age, then no limit after that. But I recall that the limits worked differently in the past, and I can’t find a reliable record of that.
patrick II
@Porky Pine:
Legally the obstruction case is separate from the Russia case, and so McCabe may see it that way but functionally it is a continuation of the same thing, and the steps McCabe was taking was using and expanding a process already in place for the entire Russian investigation. Or at least that is my take.
Matt McIrvin
@C Stars: Mueller’s (and SDNY’s) existing indictments have discredited a lot of Republicans already, and implicated the President under the thinnest of fig leaves. I think Mueller sees his role as limited but don’t see any reason to believe he wants to vindicate Trump.
eclare
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Gronk def comes to mind, and I’m fine with that too.
Ramiah Ariya
I think the biggest scandal of these times is already out there in the open, laid out by Trump himself: Trump tried to shut down the Russia investigation repeatedly, even though the main focus of that investigation BEFORE the special counsel was to find the tools and means of Russian interference – in other words, the main role of the FBI was to protect the country; and Trump has tried to stop it and has abused the investigators endlessly in a public fashion.
This is a very public scandal – and I feel focusing on the Mueller report and the smoking gun has been convenient for the Republicans. They have diverted all attention from the point that the Russia investigation HAS been obstructed with an intent to shut it down by Trump. The media has helped on this point to a large extent.
Bruce K
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I wonder whether they’re trying to send a message to Manafort that Trump can’t save him any more, so his only hope is to cooperate fully?
Though, honestly, it would give me a dark sense of satisfaction to live long enough to learn about Trump dying in Sing Sing.
Aleta
Way OT:
2019 rebuilding of the original NeXT web browser
w/ notes on history, code, recreation of NeXT type, production process and diary, oral history
to launch: https://worldwideweb.cern.ch
JaySinWA
@Gin & Tonic: https://www.ssa.gov/planners/retire/whileworking.html
A Ghost To Most
@Gin & Tonic:
The last I heard (last year), it was ~15k, so that number seems close.
Yarrow
@Cheryl Rofer:
Yes. This is how it’ll work. It’s a mob roll up. Biggest fish are saved for last.
@satby:
I don’t think this is a good idea or use of resources. Tom Steyer would be better off spending his money on voter registration and access. That’s how real change will happen. I don’t think he wants real change so he’s grandstanding with impeachment.
Skepticat
@trollhattan:
About twenty miles.
A Ghost To Most
@Aleta: My first exposure to the web was with Mosaic in 92. Did that browser grow out of NeXT?
Ohio Mom
@Gin & Tonic: Hmm… I find the Social Security site pretty easy to follow but it doesn’t have the sort of historical information you are looking for.
Shame none of our attorney commentators practice elder law because that’s the sort of factoid elder law attornies would know off the top of their head.
Does AARP have an 800 number for miscellaneous questions?
FelonyGovt
@C Stars: I have to think that Mueller’s honor and good intentions have already been demonstrated by all the indictments, as well as the fact that he’s delving into Trump and family’s financial entanglements. I’m firmly convinced he is intending to unravel it all and bring all the corruption and illegality out into the daylight.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Gin & Tonic: Hm. I think I’m not understanding the question. Mr DAW worked until he was 72 and started drawing SS retirement benefits when he turned 70. He could have done it earlier, but then his check would have been smaller. He had to pay taxes on it, of course. Is that what this is asking?
trollhattan
@oldgold:
Does Trump even have a demeaning nickname for Mueller? That’s how low-key the dude is, he doesn’t even generate rage-tweets, even if his investigation is Trump’s Yugest Nightmare.
trollhattan
@Skepticat:
Close. So it would be irresponsible not to presume Kraft has been staying there. Wonder if the concierge arranged the “date.”
Another Scott
@Gin & Tonic: It wasn’t easy to find, but here ya go:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/rtea.html
Note all the caveats – it’s complicated. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2019/01/09/2019-social-security-earnings-test-limits.aspx
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@trollhattan: Hasn’t he tried a few times to spin something about “conflicted Bob Mueller” or something? It reminds me of how that libertarian SNL writer said the problem with trying to satirize Obama was that you couldn’t get a comedy hook in him. I think that’s also why Obama drove MoDo crazy(er), she could never fit him into her snarky pop culture schtick, so she fell back on Barry-Bambi golfs too much. Always made me a little sad that no one loved her enough to tell her how pathetic she looked for eight years.
JaySinWA
@Gin & Tonic: I see I misread the question, under or over caffeinated. The Wayback machine has info back to 2015 at least https://web.archive.org/web/20150315211818/https://www.ssa.gov/planners/retire/whileworking.html
Gin & Tonic
@Dorothy A. Winsor: No. Let’s say you’re 70 and drawing SS retirement, and you are also employed. Right now, there is no limit on how much you can earn from that employment. In the past there was. I’m trying to find that. Slightly differently, if you are currently 65 and your SS “full retirement age” is 66, if you start collecting SS retirement at 65, you can only earn $17k in the year you turn 65, but you can earn any amount in the years after you turn 66. That’s a new-ish rule, and I’m looking for the histopry of that as well.
Gin & Tonic
@JaySinWA: Thanks, I know that. I want the history of that, i.e. what was that limit in, say, 1997.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Gin & Tonic: Oh I see. It’s about the gradual rise in full retirement age.
ETA: A rise that, as I recall, grew out of the last effort to “save Social Security.” I don’t even know how long ago that was. 20 years?
A Ghost To Most
@Gin & Tonic:
That full retirement date has been creeping up. For me it is 66 1/2.
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott: Ah, there it is. I owe you a virtual beer.
trollhattan
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Ain’t that the truth? Self-assured, confident people like Obama are immune to mean girl trickery and attacks. MoDo keeps getting her paycheck but the schtick is stale as a can of Civil Defense crackers.
Gin & Tonic
@Dorothy A. Winsor: @A Ghost To Most: No, it’s not about the increasing FRA. Another Scott nailed it, but thanks to everyone for chiming in.
Waldo
That’s one replay nobody wants to see.
waratah
Erick Holder Jr just sent me an email announcing All on the line campaign.
How many more do we have left?
C Stars
@debit: It’s not that I don’t think the SC report will be devastating and awful, just that, per TaMaRa’s and Cheryl’s points above, he’s not really in a position to intervene in the (mis)carriage of justice that will inevitably ensue on the GOP side. And, as others here have already stated here more eloquently than I ever could, it will likely do more damage to Trump and his minions to have that information hanging over this rancid administration for two years than if Dems only were to move to impeach now. The 2020 campaign will necessitate a huge amount of hard work on our part, there just isn’t any getting around that. But Mueller will certainly make the job easier for us.
JaySinWA
@Gin & Tonic: The link at the bottom of the ssa page that Jim linked to has a fairly straight forward listing. for pre 2000 https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/rteahistory.html
JaySinWA
@JaySinWA: Improper attribution I meant the linkAnother Scott:
ETA 2000 being the end of limits above normal retirement age.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Gin & Tonic: I’m glad you got what you were looking for.
oldgold
Here is a good and damn interesting, but weedy, analysis as to what might be going on in terms of the Mystery Appellant that is asking the Supreme Court to quash a subpoena in the Mueller investigation.
Empty Wheel
eric
@Waldo: another patriots inflated ball story…no thanks.
The Moar You Know
@schrodingers_cat: Full-time job. Within another few months this place will be 70% trollbots, 30% legit commenters. And the ratio will get worse as we get closer to the election. Saw it happen in 2016 and 2012 here. 2008 there were some of the last remnants of John’s old GOP crowd here, which was interesting. At least they weren’t Russians.
Gravenstone
@Cheryl Rofer:
Badly. Very, very badly.
Ian R
@Ramiah Ariya: No one can deny that Trump is both mean and a tool.
Just One More Canuck
@Dorothy A. Winsor: how is your friend feeling?
Chris Johnson
@C Stars: Man, are there a lot of trollskis all over the internet lately.
Cheers, Boris. Have fun.
mad citizen
@oldgold: I guess this thread died but this link was very interesting indeed. Thanks for posting oldgold!
Origuy
@Renie: Thanks for mentioning that. I’ve been meaning to post about it. I follow several historians on Twitter and military historian Tony Pollard has tweeted about it a lot. A nice story.
J R in WV
OldGold
Everything on Emptywheel by Marcy Wheeler about the Mueller investigation is way out into the weeds, aka weedy. There’s some other stuff more mundane, like here, the cat threads, etc. But mostly it’s very weedy, but accurate and well done analysis.
Dan B
@DCrefugee: The timing of impeachment is important to 2020. In the meanwhile we’ve got The Federalist Society train barreling down the tracks and the increasing white supremacist (white straight supremacist?) attacks. Two years = lots of damage to undo.
I’m not suggesting rending our garments and wailing. What are the steps we can take to slow the judicial malfeasance? And what happens to the progressive coalition if Roe is overturned, or some other corporate / oligarch victory?
I’m confident these possibilities are on Pelosi, Schiff, and Elijah Cummings’ minds. Is there mire to be done?
Elie
Fuck a report! I want indictments! We have some and I wanna see more. They may not indict Trump right now but I DREAM of having every MOFO around him charged and having to declare bankruptcy due to legal fees. I am certain he will eventually be also caught at the center of this web of deceit and corruption.
SFAW
@Gin & Tonic:
I’m not too far from you, so how about if I come by and collect a real one on his behalf?
[NB: I actually don’t know/recall where you live, but I associate you (and efgoldman, of course) with RI, and I figure anything in RI is within spittin’ distance.]
SFAW
@Dan B:
I have no doubt that Traitor Turtle and the Traitor-in-Chief will try to throw a lot of muck and mire in there.
SFAW
@Elie:
Unless the Traitor-in-Chief pays his attorneys in freshly-minted rubles, he’ll hit that “goal” inside of about three months. No, I don’t believe he has more than a few million. Billions? R-i-i-i-i-i-ght
Gin & Tonic
@SFAW: I’ll save you the drive – just send me your bank account info, your SS# and your mother’s maiden name, and I’ll wire you the money to buy a whole six-pack. I promise.
Elie
@SFAW:
I just cannot wait to celebrate each degradation. I will throw a party every week. The shit is gonna be unbelievable. His punishment should be merciless and lengthy for him and the GOP.
Elie
I have no idea why I’m in moderation