Why challenge John Cornyn when you can be the 100th Democrat to run for President?
Beto O’Rourke has decided not to run for U.S. Senate next year against Texas Republican incumbent John Cornyn and likely will announce a campaign for president soon, people close to the former El Paso congressman told The Dallas Morning News on Wednesday.
Maybe some of you who know more about Texas politics can convince us that this isn’t a giant missed opportunity for Democrats to get a seat in the Senate.
The Midnight Lurker
They didn’t ask me. Typical.
Belafon
Cruz is the least liked Republican in Texas. Beto ran a phenominal campaign, earned more votes than Obama did in Texas in 2012, and lost. He was not going to be Cornyn. This is actually, as far as this Texas is concerned, a better move politically. Were Beto to become the nominee, or the VP nominee, it might actually help whoever runs against Cornyn.
FlyingToaster
I’ll ask a different question: wouldn’t it be better if Beto ran for Governor o Texas? or AG? Because those bastards are obviously corrupt (rather than lazy and evil), and should be beatable.
Ivan X
I don’t think most people, like us, can properly understand the ego needs of a person who actually decides to run for President, including even good people like Obama. It’s like trying to conceptualize the scope of the universe.
Kay
Democrats aren’t team players. I recognize I sound like a high school football coach – on tv- I have no idea what real coaches say- but it is true and it is a problem.
I’d like to say it’s because we’re all such free thinkers but I don’t think it’s that- I think we all want to be the boss :)
AL wrote one of my favorite political posts of all time a couple of years ago – it was basically “bring back political machines”
A truly bold take! And there’s truth to it.
Skepticat
I so agree and am so frustrated. I believe that for good or for ill, a senator actually can be much more powerful than almost any other official–sometimes including the prez.
Kay
Incidentally, Sherrod Brown, who I love, will be even worse if he runs. He’ll give up a seat.
But how can we stop them? I mean it. Just tell me how and I will help :)
Seanly
Okay, on one hand, I welcome a vibrant primary for the Democratic Party’s nominee for President. On the other hand, this is getting a bit ridiculous. I hope that some of the folks running are smart & quick to drop out. One of my complaints about 2016 was that Sanders dragged out his campaign too long (and Clinton almost did the same in 2008).
trnc
Off topic, but interesting: Some faux news hack wrote a dear diary about how that dreamboat DT handled the NK negotiations. The comment section is not kind to him.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/north-korea-summit-ends-with-no-deal-but-trumps-move-sent-a-message-that-matters-what-will-kim-do-now
Belafon
What can also be frustrating is when us Texans try got explain to people that white voters here will keep voting Republican until the Democratic party stops appealing to minorities.
gene108
@Kay:
Kidnap him. Stash him in your basement, until someone wins the Dem primary, and it’s too late for him to contest. And then release him.
Other than that, I go nothing
debit
I can’t blame candidates for thinking this could be their chance and grabbing for it.
Baud
@Ivan X:
Speak for yourself.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Seanly: to pick just one example, I like Eric Swalwell well enough as a cable TV guest, but what the fuck is he thinking? As a few people pointed out on twitter, all these candidates are wasting donor money that could be better spent on Senate races, because even now the Senate is at best a 50/50 proposition, and without it, there’s no big agenda in 2021.
At least the no-hope billionaires aren’t wasting anybody’s money but their own
The Dangerman
First cup of coffee pass at it, this is an audition for a VP run and a real run for the office in 8 years. Like Biden should have done.
Raven
@Kay: they say “go knock their dicks in the dirt”!
Haroldo
@Kay:
And as a Masshole, I worry about losing Warren as my senator (above and beyond Dems losing a seat – after all, we’ve got Baker as gov and I wouldn’t put it past him nominating a Repub in her place or maybe Repub-lite Seth Moulton).
Kay
@gene108:
They all complain that voters don’t know how government works but none of them do, either. APPARENTLY :)
Bernie Sanders thinks he’s getting GOP votes for MFA. In your dreams. At least Warren has sort of an argument. It’s akin to Clinton’s argument- “the levers of power”. She would use executive and administrative powers. That’s at least somewhat doable.
Belafon
@debit: And it doesn’t look like it hurt us in 2008 to have so many starting candidates.
Baud
I blame the “coronation” meme of 2016. It’s an iron law of Democratic politics that for every bullshit there is an equal and opposite bullshit. We’re seeing that play out here.
Next up: Biden.
Kay
@Raven:
I get all my coaching info from Friday Night Lights. Reliable source! He’s so caring and I love how they have exactly one social issue per episode. It’s sports for people who hate sports.
Baud
@Belafon:
2008 quickly came down to three people. And it didn’t hurt us thanks in part to Hillary’s gracious and amazingly powerful concession. It’s what we didn’t have in 2016.
Percysowner
@Kay: I totally agree on Sherrod Brown. I wish he would put the country and the party above his own ambitions. Frankly, the Democratic Party can’t get Northam to quit being the Governor of Virginia, so stopping Brown or Beto from running something that is beyond what the Party can do.
VividBlueDotty
The last time Texas elected a Democrat to statewide office or the Senate was 1988. Much of Beto’s support comes from outside of Texas. He feels his chances are better on the national stage. I think he also feels strongly that this is the right moment for his message. I tend to agree. I think he’ll be well received in Iowa. I don’t mind starting off with a crowded field of well qualified candidates.
WaterGirl
I, for one, and thrilled that Beto is running. I think he has a much better shot than many of the people who have already declared. Go Beto!
Baud
@WaterGirl: Yeah, good point. Just because he’s the latest one doesn’t mean he’s anywhere near the worst of the bunch.
Triumph
I dunno y’all, he lost by 3 to the most hated man in America, running against a milquetoast generic GOP Senator (which is what Cornyn is) seems like it’s doomed to failure. Whereas if he actually wins the nomination, just making Trump play defense to win by 3-4 in Texas is worth a lot. *shrugs*
WaterGirl
@Baud: I have always loved Joe Biden, but he will only diminish himself and his legacy if he runs, because he will surely lose. Then he goes from a great VP to President Barack Obama and party elder to a loser who has never been able to win the nomination for president.
Biden’s only real shot was 2016 but timing wasn’t right for him. I wish he would see that the timing is not right for him now.
Belafon
@Baud: Yep, and the one person who was the issue is running again. Our hope is to make him irrelevant. And I see a second, younger white guy helping with that.
Wyatt Derp
Repubs had 17 candidates for president for 2016 and their nominee still “won” so I don’t think the size of our primary field hurts. Also, considering demographics, it’s probably easier for a Dem to win the presidency than any office in Texas.
Raven
@Kay: Read the book, it’s a real tale of abuse.
Frankensteinbeck
@Baud:
Bernie has never stopped telling young people that Republicans are the true enemy and they should vote for the Democrats who cheated them.
Baud
Beto probably can’t beat Cornyn, but he might be able to beat Cruz next time around. That could be part of his thinking (assuming he’s not Veep).
ETA: Or Prez, but I think that’s unlikely, but who knows?
Baud
@Frankensteinbeck: Heh.
WaterGirl
OT, but I cannot believe that it’s been a year since we thought we were going to lose Lily. (per Cole’s twitter feed)
Power of love? Power of prayer? Good fortune? I’ll take any and all of them. Such a sweet girl.
Eolirin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: You know I’m not sure that’s all that big of a concern. At least until candidates start figuring out how to effectively spend money, I think most political spending is wasted, and only matters at the margins to begin with. Unless we’re massively outspent, and I don’t think the early fundraising of candidates that are going to get wiped out early is going to amount to that much relatively, I don’t think it’s going to affect outcomes one way or the other. If we were better at putting together ground games, maybe it’d matter more but most of the money being diverted will just be wasted on ads and consulting fees of questionable value anyway.
The only scenario that worries me is a worst case one, where the vote is fairly evenly split across 4 or 5 candidates deep into the campaign. But the big states are weighing in a lot earlier this cycle, so if they get taken decisively it’ll filter out candidates very fast.
Belafon
And while I like Beto, I consider him a VP candidate. I’m currently leaning towards a Harris/Beto ticket.
Barbara
I suspect that Beto has concluded, probably correctly, that he has a better chance of getting elected in a nationwide election than in a statewide election in Texas. This is a real problem for him as well as for others, including potential stars like Stacy Abrams.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Belafon: Been noodling the same thing, it’s a weak ticket on foreign policy, which is never, or rarely, at the top of voters’ priorities, especially Dems, but it’s one that’s easy to spook tote baggers and suburbanites with. A shadow SoS in the person of Joe Biden could do for that ticket what Colin Powell did for the Bush lad in 2000.
(No, you’re putting the carts before the horses!)
ETA:
I was gonna say, the only 2020 candidacy I’m really excited about is Abrams for Senate, and she hasn’t declared
WaterGirl
@Baud: I really like that Beto is his own guy and does things on his own terms. He’s not Barack Obama, but I see a lot of Barack’s same qualities in him, and I am excited in a way I haven’t been since Barack.
If Beto doesn’t get the nomination, any candidate that does would be a fool not to pick him as VP. That said, 18 months is a long time, and we’ll see what happens as things play out.
namekarB
I opine that he is shooting for the Vice presidential slot
Miss Bianca
Yeah, JC, I was smacking my forehead over that one as well.
johnnybuck
I’m all for Beto running. There’s a whole year before any of this matters anyway. If he can pull the youngs away from Bernie, he will be doing the party a great service. He’d make somebody a fine running mate.
FlyingToaster
@Haroldo: Doesn’t work that way in MA. There has to be an election within 6 months. The Gov can appoint anyone for the interim, but it won’t make a bit of difference while Democrats are in the minority. And Charlie Baker would have a hard time finding a Republican who isn’t a trumpista; it’ll be another of the ex-CEO buddies of his, who couldn’t win a Republican primary, let alone a general election.
Senator Centerfold* only won the special in 2010 because he was running against Martha Coakley, of SatanicPanic/Fells River Day Care fame (one of a series of wrong or over-prosecutions under her tenure). Every time he tries to run in a regular election (2012 MA senate, 2014 NH senate), he loses to a girl.
*Scott Brown, now ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, husband of a former local news personality
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Bob Kraft?
Gin & Tonic
Looks like Bibi’s going to be indicted.
David Hunt
@Belafon:
As a Texan, I’m just adding my support to Belafon’s point. Demographics can change quickly sometimes but I currently don’t see a Democrat winning any statewide elected office in Texas short of Cruz’s Senate seat, and that opportunity was created, (mostly) not by how odious Cruz was as a person, but by how hated he is by his fellow Republicans. Cornyn is a big deal in the Senate hierarchy and would get massive establishment support from any serious challenge. I can see Beto running for President and using the name recognition to help him challenge Cruz in ’24 if (please God) there a Democrat in the White House that he doesn’t want to run against.
patrick II
Why Have I been listening to the CPAC Convention on my local NPR station? I got to hear the question why are the democrats so hard on trump when Bill Clinton lied so much? Is there a double standard?
PST
@Kay:
There might be a way around this. If I’m reading the law right, Brown could resign his seat 180 before the election. That lets the governor appoint a replacement for the rest of the year, but a senatorial election would be held at the same time as the presidential one. If Brown doesn’t make the national ticket, he could run to get his seat back. If he does, one could hope he would have long enough coattails to drag some other Democrat across the line. I’m not going to pretend that any of this is a good idea, but the possibility exists. With the Republicans controlling the Senate and presidency now, one more bad senator for six months would not be a tragedy. Wouldn’t want to lose the next Senate, however, for something like this.
PST
By the way, I like Brown a lot too. He’d be a fine president, I’m sure, or a good Joe Biden for President Harris.
A Ghost To Most
@Kay: Some of us are Democrats precisely because we are not team players.
MattF
From 30,000 feet, it’s a measure of Trump’s vulnerability that so many Dems think they have a chance. And I have no problem with giving the other candidates a hard ride. Beto can run, lose, and then chalk it up to ‘gaining experience in the national arena’. I have no problem with that either, as long as he doesn’t become a chronic presidential candidate.
waratah
I thought the most important thing right now was to win the presidency. We need the senate but Trump has been able to destroy so much without congress.
I think Beto can win the presidency.
You all need to pay attention to him now and you will see he is more than the rock star the press has named him, he is a serious politician.
FlyingToaster
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Charlie finds the idea of “sex” embarassing (see the whole A.J. incident).
Jonathan Kraft, probably. Or that guy from the Cape who lost the primary to run against Warren.
david
@Belafon: Cornyn is Senator-for-life. People keep getting this crazy idea that Texas is turning blue or purple. It’s not happening, folks. Scratch Texas off the list. Florida will turn blue well before Texas.
tobie
It’s a dumb decision if Beto loses and a great decision if he wins. We have fractured Democratic field right now because no one is convincing the base as a whole. That’s a problem in my opinion. If Beto is able to inspire a significant portion of the base, that’s a real plus.
Princess
@Ivan X: This is exactly correct. ALL candidates for president have off-the-chart narcissistic tendencies. They are ALL problematic, distorted human beings. Including your favourite. Even her. Even him (especially him). Yeah, even Obama, though he kept it better in check than most (I think he had a sense of honour many of them don’t have).
This is why when you choose a primary candidate, you should not be thinking of finding your Beloved Leader. You should be asking, what is this clown going to do for me and for the most vulnerable in this country? Use their disfunctional neediness to make things better for others. That’s what it’s about.
Sandia Blanca
Baud/Beto 2020!
waratah
@namekarB: no he wants what he runs for and will work harder than any of the others.
A Ghost To Most
Harris/Beto only loses us one Senator. Perhaps Beto can woo the hipsters.
Betty Cracker
@johnnybuck: Great points. I could see Beto taking the starch outta Sanders’ sails and then giving a master class in how to lose graciously and fully support the eventual nominee if he (Beto) doesn’t win. Also agree with the earlier takes that if Beto couldn’t dislodge Cruz, he won’t beat Cornyn.
WaterGirl
I used to read BooMan religiously, but then he seemed to change in 2016 so I look at the titles but often don’t read him. But I opened today’s post about Cohen’s testimony yesterday, and boy do I wish my catholic upbringing wasn’t so strong that I can’t use the swearwords I want to. BooMan’s opening is disgusting. At least I think so. You guys?
khead
Democrats. Herding cats. Etc. What a fucking waste.
Kay
@Raven:
Oh, no! I am NOT reading that book Raven.
Brachiator
Is there anyone who is not running for president?
waratah
@Betty Cracker: Betty it is going to take some time to get all voting problems, machines etc. fixed in Texas. The Republicans have had years to fix it there way.
Kay
@A Ghost To Most:
Right, but it does make it difficult to go in the same direction, which is sometimes necessary to get anything done. So bad with the good, I guess.
A Ghost To Most
rawstory
different-church-lady
Beto-mania was one of those things that made my “overboard-liberal-emotion-therefore-I’m-suspicious” radar go off loud.
Still can’t put my finger on it, but every time some progressive hero sucks all the oxygen out of the room, I start looking for the catch. It doesn’t have as much to do with the candidates as it has to do with blind spots in the rational evaluations skills of the progressive pep squad.
WaterGirl
@waratah:
Quoted for truth.
In this case, there is a reason Beto is a rock star.
Mike in NC
Been away from media this morning, but apparently Fat Bastard pulled the plug on his love fest in Vietnam with Little Rocket Man because he was consumed by the Cohen thing. So, no new fake challenge coins will be sold. Sad!
Ocotillo
I am disappointed that Beto is not going to make a run at Cornyn but the odds are, he would not be able to prevail over Cornyn even in a presidential year election. Texas turning purple has this almost mythical quality about it. On the surface, it seems with the increasing Hispanic vote in the state, demographics would catch up.
And it will I think eventually but it will be slower than any of us that post here hope that it will. The thing is, Hispanics in Texas turn out lower than other Hispanics in other states with large Hispanic populations. To further complicate the matter, more of Texas Hispanics identify as Republicans. I am not sure if this is because of expediency in being able to get elected due to people in the state who are predisposed to vote for the GOPer no matter what or if it is something else.
Three of the most exciting, at least from a national perspective, candidates in 2018 of the D side lost. Abrams, Gillum and Beto. I would like to see all three work hard at speeding up their states move to blue.
Finally, the odious Greg Abbott is a very popular Governor down here so he may be harder than Cornyn to beat. Maybe, just maybe Beto could make a run as AG and I am not even sure he is an attorney.
One more finally, has anyone else seen the photo of Beto wearing something like a speedo with stuff written all over his body such as Atheist, feminist amongst other RWNJ bugga-boo words? One showed up on my Facebook feed from a RWNJ and my first thought was it was photoshopped.
A Ghost To Most
@Kay: Will Rogers said something about that, I think.
khead
@WaterGirl:
I still read him. He may get on my nerves sometimes, but he’s fine as long as you understand his view is from a nice Philly suburb.
Constance Reader
Texan here: there’s no way in hell he can unseat John Cornyn, no democrat could.
CliosFanBoy
did you check your spam folder???
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@different-church-lady: me too, he has some blue-dogginess in his record and overdid the social media sharing, IMoldfart’sHO, just as AOC, as tight and disciplined as she’s been in hearings gets overly excited and sloppy when talking to a friendly crowd. But they’re both mostly improvements over the boomlets triggered for Wiener, Grayson and Avenatti (fercrissake) by White Guy Who Angrily Shouts On TeeVee The Things I Angrily Shout AT My TeeVee syndrome
different-church-lady
OT: can I freshen up your Schadenfreude for you?
PST
@A Ghost To Most:
I have a feeling that this was said with a wry, ironic smile, but I’m still going to use it as an occasion to point out that we’ll get the hipsters, who mostly live in the slam dunk states. We need some farmers.
CliosFanBoy
@Ocotillo: it’s fake
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/beto-orourke-pride-parade-photo/
PJ
Yeah, I can’t believe the nerve of this Obama character to run for President when he’s only been a senator for a couple of years and there are already nine other candidates running and everyone knows that it’s going to come down to Clinton and Dodd. He doesn’t have a chance. We need him in the Senate for the next 10 years, then he can think about running for President in 2016.
Baud
@patrick II:
Given that the Republicans haven’t impeached Trump like they did Clinton, you can chalk that up to the usual right-wing masturbatory circlejerk.
Ohio Mom
This is my broken record: look what happened to the Republicans. They had too many candidates. The more moderate ones split the vote and they ended up with beyond the bottom of the barrel.
Say what you will about who the other Republican candidates were, none of them would have installed their children as staff, skimmed money off of every opportunity and given the store away to the North Koreans.
I don’t know what can be done about our excess of contenders, I am just very unhappy about it.
Kent
Former Texan here.
Cruz was widely disliked by the Texas GOP establishment and was a possible get if you draw an inside straight and everything lined up perfectly.
Cornyn is pure Texas establishment GOP. He was a former Texas supreme court justice and goes way back in TX GOP circles. He’s the genial establishment choice and would be a MUCH harder win than Cruz because the entire GOP machinery would rally behind him. His is one of the safest seats in the country.
Beto’s best choice for career advancement probably would have been to stay in the house and angle for some sort of leadership position. But that bridge has already been crossed. There is probably nowhere else for him to go in TX politics unless he runs for some lesser statewide office. I’m guessing he is hoping for a VP pick or some high level DEM cabinet position and tossing your hat into the ring is the best way to keep that aspiration alive.
Plato
@Mike in NC:
Abe: what a guy has to do around here to get this fucking nutjob a fucking Nobel so that he gets off my case?
waratah
@Ocotillo: yes I have seen that photo and it is not him.
One of the many attacks that has been ruled untrue by people checking this stuff
Belafon
@Ocotillo: There was a chart out last year showing how Latinos vote. If you needed proof they are not a “race” but ethnicity, it was it: It showed that Latinos voted pretty much coincided with their skin color. The closer to white, the larger the percentate that voted Republican.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@PJ: difference is Obama won that Senate seat, had O’Rourke done so, he’d probably be the front-runner. If O’Rourke does get in the race, and stays competitive against Harris in CA, we’ll see. In any case, we’ll have a better idea of how this shakes out in checks watch about 10,000 hours
Ocotillo
@CliosFanBoy: Thanks for doing my job for me.
retr2327
@different-church-lady: Possibly more than Schadenfreude to it. How will Americans in general, and prosecutors in the SCO, SDNY, and around the country (hint: NY State charges) feel about the proposition (not found in the Constitution) that the President cannot be indicted while in office while Netanyahu is being indicted and tried? Might that cause some to question that proposition?
WaterGirl
@Ohio Mom: There are worse things, this far out, than an embarrassment of riches in terms of Democratic candidates this time around.
We are not the Republicans. So many of their candidates were idiots – I don’t think we can draw any conclusions this far out, related to the number of candidates running.
Plato
Miss Bianca
Isn’t Beto still in Congress, or something? Is there something wrong with *staying* in Congress, if so?
Likewise with Sherrod Brown. Jesus Christ, is there something wrong with staying on as a desperately-needed Democratic Senator, rather than a somewhat-less-than-desperately-needed 57th white guy to run for POTUS?
Kay’s right – Democrats are not team players. Or, apparently, strategic thinkers.
scott (the other one)
@Kay: I have been repeatedly informed that the Democratic Party kneecapped a certain senator from Vermont and anyone else who dared even think about challenging The Anointed One back in 2016. They should just do that again.
(No, really, I’ve seen it on FB, so it must be true.)
Plato
A Ghost To Most
@PST:
Good luck with that. If T’s tariffs haven’t caused them to wise up, even Sherrod Brown wouldn’t work.
Gods, guts, and guns is a helluva drug.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Last night
This morning
MisterForkbeard
@Belafon: Coming to this thread late, I agree with this. No matter how excellent Beto is, he’s unlikely to win a statewide race in Texas because it’s Texas, with all the baggage and suppression that brings. It makes sense that he might want to run for President instead, but…
He’s got less of a chance there. I do think he’s auditioning for a VP pick or a spot in the potential cabinet, though.
Ohio Mom
@different-church-lady: I know what you mean, I have a similar sort of radar.
khead
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Yep. Obama actually won.
Jeffro
@Belafon: me likey that ticket!
waratah
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/02/22/beto-orourke-campaign-strategy-2020-225193
gene108
@PST:
Brown didn’t have any coattails in 2018. His running for Senate didn’t push any other Democrats over the hump for statewide office. I am not sure, why he would magically grow them in 2020.
Plato
Most of the herd would have thinned out by super Tuesday. I don’t see this as a bfd.
A Ghost To Most
@Princess: Beloved leader? No thanks. Competence, strength, and the ability to choose good people to implement your vision. Opportunists need not apply.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I don’t think the big field is a problem unless people get bitter and start in-fighting. There are a couple of candidates beside the obvious One who make me nervous in that regard. O’Rourke’s not one of them.
Ohio Mom
@MisterForkbeard: I don’t quite get that auditioning metaphor. Big stars don’t audition for big roles, at the start somebody high up says something along the lines of “This role has Tom Hanks all over it.” They are not holding open auditions for leading roles.
I mean, it’s not like anyone who is running hasn’t already thought of what kind of VP they will need and it’s not like they have no awareness of Beto’s existence.
pamelabrown53
@Belafon:
I think a Harris/Beto ticket could be dynamite! Just hope Wilmer isn’t our nominee.
A Ghost To Most
@Ohio Mom: The metaphor is imperfect, but the phenomena is common enough. Running is a way to raise your name recognition, for a VP slot or other. I believe, without proof yet, that Hickenloooper is really running for Cory Gardner’s seat.
Haroldo
@FlyingToaster:
Thanks. I had forgotten that. (I hadn’t forgotten the particularly poorly run Coakley campaign, nor the subsequent trajectory of Cosmo Boy, tho’.) Still…..I would miss Warren as Senator and would not be happy with the possibility of Baker’s mischief making.
A Ghost To Most
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: That’s why having Beto in the race is useful, to peel off wavering BernieBros.
Zifnab25
Texas resident.
Can confirm that this is a giant missed opportunity for Democrats.
Zifnab25
@gene108:
Beto’s ’18 campaign was a huge factor in pulling voters to the Dem side of the aisle in county races.
His team organized the GOTV in the big cities, united a bunch of smaller DNC and Berniecrat affiliated groups, and gave Dems a huge fund raising advantage in a traditionally GOP friendly off year cycle.
It’s a BFD that Ft. Bend and Tarrant went blue, particularly relative to Wendy Davis’s performance in 2014.
WaterGirl
Penetration at all levels. I am guessing this isn’t the only questionable money that is undermining University systems in the US.
kindness
My impressions of Beto are good but a man who was a Congressman for 1 term and failed in his next attempt to win higher office is not someone who should be running for President, imho. Sorry but that is just too much glue sniffing for me to OK.
What is the end goal here? There is only one national office and many Texas offices. Or does Beto actually just want to sit on couches in Green Rooms or become a pundit?
Fair Economist
O’Rourke probably has a better chance of winning the Presidency than of beating Cornyn, even if it’s not that high. More to the point, if he loses in the primary it’s still a net boost to his future political prospects (e.g. Texas Governor), while losing against Cornyn will damage them. The non-trivial chance of a VP slot gives yet another reason to try for the Presidency. It makes sense for him to go for President.
Personally, I’m glad he’s running for President. More white males means more splitting of the misogyny and racism votes (even if he doesn’t appeal to them intentionally like some others do) and another moderate candidate helps split the moderate vote. He’ll draw a lot of votes from Sanders and Biden (if Biden runs) – and that’s a good thing! I don’t think he’ll pull much support from Harris or Warren – and that’s good too.
Fair Economist
@kindness:
Abraham Lincoln would like a word with you.
Incidentally, O’Rourke was in Congress 3 terms. It was Lincoln who only had one term.
John S.
I like Beto as a politician, but good luck winning a primary. Any Democrat running against him won’t have a hard time pointing to his voting record as being wildly underwhelming.
schrodingers_cat
BS supporter M^2 has a sad because Beto is running. Is Rose twitter melting down too?
schrodingers_cat
@Belafon: The dream team! And the contrast with the Orange and the pasty white will striking.
JoeyJoeJoe
@kindness: He was first elected in 2012, so three terms. He also unseated an incumbent in the primary to do so. Not to mention that he did better in a statewide race than any Democrat since 1994 (the last year democrats won statewide) with the possible exception of John Sharp, who narrowly lost the LG race to Rick Perry in 1998. If Sharp had won, it’s possible that W wouldn’t have run for president, since Sharp would have replaced him as governor.
PaulWartenberg
people forget we had a relatively crowded Democratic field in 2008, and got Obama out of it (and shaddup BernieBros Obama was GREAT). What will happen as usual is the field will whittle itself down pretty quick to the contenders and remove the pretenders, which may include Beto because outside of Texas his profile is still pretty meager. The only thing I’m worried about is that Bernie will outstay his welcome (yes, I am not a fan) and make life miserable for Harris/Warren to where it fcks up the November vote. /headdesk
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@schrodingers_cat: Michael Moore?
schrodingers_cat
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: MisterMix.
dollared
@Kay: I have been wondering about Trump’s 48% approval in Ohio, recently reported from Gallup. Do you think this means that even if Sherrod wins the Dem nomination, he can’t carry Ohio? To me that 48% number is just amazing.
MisterForkbeard
@Ohio Mom: It’s more that Beto gets a chance to show his stuff on the national stage and build a group of followers. That makes choosing him as VP more attractive should he fit other requirements a nominee would have. That’s all. :)
geg6
@Ohio Mom:
It’s simply not true that stars don’t audition for roles. They most certainly do. In fact, I was watching something the other night (can’t remember what) that showed the audition for a star (can’t remember who) for a role in a movie. And it wasn’t a star before he/she became a star thing. And, depending on what the lead role is, there have been open auditions for lead roles.
Plus, politics isn’t Hollywood or vice versa.
WaterGirl
@kindness: Try again. Three terms in congress and he left to run for the senate. Beto, a Democrat, came within 2 points of Cruz. You dismiss Beto — and the other two stars who lost — at your peril.
edit: for you to be able to say this:
“Or does Beto actually just want to sit on couches in Green Rooms or become a pundit?” shows that you know nothing about Beto O’Rourke.
Another Scott
@Baud: Supposedly Biden’s family is screaming at him that he needs to run. Supposedly Biden is trying to figure out if there’s a path to the nomination for him.
Maybe Beto deciding to run (if he does) will close the door on Biden (the vote-for-the-well-known-white-guy demographic). If so, that would probably be a good thing. (Biden has shown several times that he can’t win a national campaign for President.)
I agree with the analysis above that beating Cornyn would probably be very difficult (since Cruz is so disliked). But Donnie and his enablers are a wild-card (will they implode and take people like Cornyn down with them?).
It’s hard to predict what will happen (especially in the future). Democrats have historically dumped candidates that didn’t succeed their first time (or they ultimately didn’t win). If Beto decides to run for the nomination and loses, as I think he very well might, and doesn’t get picked for VP (as he very well might, though who would Harris want? She’d probably want Warren to stay in the Senate…), then it might hurt his future prospects. But I’m sure he’s gaming all this out already…
Interesting times ahead.
Cheers,
Scott.
(“Stay home, Joe!!”)
burnspbesq
@retr2327:
OLC opinions are binding within DOJ.
Uncle Cosmo
@Plato: The Japanese shoulda nominated him for an IgNobel – he woulda won in a shambling lurch & probably woulda never known the diff – & there are all sorts of delectable scenarios to spin around assembling a delegation to present him with it…
johnnybuck
Heck, that’s probably the best thing he’s got going for him right now. Outside of Harris, they all seem like re-treads one way or the other. I suspect that a relatively young, handsome, earnest white face can probably go pretty far in the era of Trump. This seems more like Jimmy Carter in 75 to me.
and if he’s running it aint for VP. I think it’s a mistake to underestimate his potential.
PaulWartenberg
It sounds like Biden is worried if he jumps into the race he may interfere with someone else’s chances to corner the Moderate/White Male vote like Brown or Beto (even though both are pretty progressive compared to the GOP). He has to remember he’s already made two attempts at the party ticket (1992 and 2008) and came away very short both times. He has the obvious work experience and best-looking resume, but he also knows for Democratic campaigns that counts less than the charisma and the agenda (Bill Clinton, Obama).
Personally, I don’t think Biden should run. He’s best right now as a backroom mentor and party cheerleader, someone who can add political gravitas to the eventual winner.
J R in WV
After a few of y’all mentioned getting an email “Dear Sisters and Brothers:” from Russian Stooge Bernard Sanders, I checked my spam filter for one of my very own notes from Comrade Sanders, and sure enough I found it.
First, they lied when they said I was receiving the email because I signed up for Stooge Sanders’ campaign 4 years ago – never, never, never.
So I clicked on a sign-up link, and gave them my first name “FuckSandersforaRussianStooge” and declined to donate any money.
Then I replied to the email, and wrote them this:
Then I immediately received a polite auto-reply about how to donate by sending a check, or a link to Act-Blue. I’m thinking of writing Act-Blue about their sponsoring a candidate who isn’t a Democrat, or even American, particularly. Not a good thing, and I contribute a shit-ton to actually really liberal Democratic candidates nation-wide. As opposed to the Russian Stooge Sanders, not liberal, not Democratic, just greedy.
WaterGirl
My feeling is that everyone is welcome to run as a democrat, even though I hate Wilmer and the idea of him possibly winning the nomination makes me sick. Better to run as a Democrat than as an Independent who would split the vote. Fuck the coffee guy and all the other rich guys who are willing to subvert democracy and knowingly throw the election to the Republicans just to make sure that their rich guy advantages are preserved.
With this crowded field, I think small donor money will talk. We probably have 2 fundraising cycles before the debates start in June, and I think if you can’t show your fundraising chops by that point, the field will winnow itself.
I can’t see the point of hating on any Democratic candidates – except the ones who are running as democrats but aren’t truly democrats. Wilmer was handled with kid gloves last time, but not this time. Just like it’s a waste of time to try to get the so-called “white working class” aka racist vote, I think it would be a waste of time to go easy on Wilmer in the hopes that his acolytes won’t get pissed off and stay home or vote for the other party. Fuck them, it’s foolish to believe they are on our team. I say don’t worry about them and try to get new voters and people who rarely vote. My two cents.
Dupe1970
He was unlikely to beat Cornyn. Cruz was his best bet.
Michael Cain
@Eolirin:
Collect the money first. March 3, California and Texas both up, on the order of 800 delegates between the two. $10M+ to be competitive in both, plus something in the other states on that day. Any candidate who hasn’t raised several million dollars by Aug/Sep this year might as well bow out.
sgrAstar
@kindness: beto was in Congress for 3 terms. Google is your friend.
lee
@Belafon: Nailed it.
I was hoping the twin (never can remember which is which) was going to challenge Cornyn for his seat. But he is running for President.
lee
@Zifnab25: You think Beto, who lost against one of the top 3 hated politicians in the US, would be able to beat milqtoast Cornyn?
I’m not too sure about that.
retr2327
@burnspbesq: As you’ve phrased it, that’s probably correct, but arguably less conclusive than it appears. See Walter Dellinger, Indicting a President is Not Foreclosed: The Complex History, arguing, inter alia, that:
Can a sitting president be indicted? Often, in answering this question, commentators point to Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) opinions answering in the contrary. To whatever extent the writer agrees or disagrees with the opinions’ conclusion, the government’s position on the matter is usually presented as a long-standing and clear “no.”
The reality is more complicated. The United States has addressed this question six times in both internal memos and briefs filed in litigation. And a review of these documents shows that it is far from clear what criminal prosecution steps are (or should be) precluded—and that there is no “longstanding policy” against indictment of the president. Consider the 1973 OLC memo stating that a sitting president should not be indicted. Far from being authoritative, it was essentially repudiated within months by the Justice Department in the United States’ filing in the Supreme Court in United States v. Nixon.
At Lawfareblog.com
It’s also true that for many years, the confirmation of a judicial nominee required blue slips from that state’s senators . . . . Certainly a very different issue, but nonetheless an example of how what was thought to be a settled and unassailable policy (not law) is subject to erosion or outright abandonment. The DOJ presumably takes its policies more seriously, but still, a policy is binding until it isn’t. And this particular policy is generally described as stating that a sitting president “should” not be indicted, not that he “cannot” be indicted, for what that’s worth.
jk
@Fair Economist:
@WaterGirl:
Beto would have a slim chance against big John Cornyn but he has an even slimmer chance to win the Dem nomination for President. He’s revealed himself to be a selfish prick. Mistermix is correct, Beto should be thinking about what’s best for the Democratic party and not letting his enormous ego get the best of him. Plus, his resume is too damn thin to be President.
Omnes Omnibus
@jk: Which people do have a right to run in your opinion?
jk
@Omnes Omnibus:
How about viable candidates such as Warren, Harris, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Booker, Inslee, or Hickenlooper?
The fact that Beto made the Senate race against Cruz interesting for a few months is not enough reason to support him in a Presidential campaign.
Beto is not in the same league as Warren, Harris, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Booker, Inslee, or Hickenlooper.
You Beto for President zombies are out of your stupid goddamn motherfucking minds.
Rommie
Remember that Super Tuesday really is super for 2020. Perhaps Beto thinks he can hold his own in NH and NV beforehand, and then score big in TX and OK, and get something out of CA and the other states. Anyone running has to be viable after Super Tuesday, and then the real race begins. He might feel he can make that shorter list.
Omnes Omnibus
@jk: What makes you think I am supporting Beto? I haven’t made my choice yet and I am happy that we have an actual deep bench.
Oh yeah, fuck you, asshole.
Amir Khalid
@jk:
Isn’t that the whole purpose of the primary season: to determine who is the most viable candidate, and make them the nominee?
jk
@Omnes Omnibus:
The bench is deep enough so that Beto is not needed in the presidential race.
If you actually believe that Beto is as qualified as the already declared presidential candidates currently serving in the Senate you are a goddamn moron.
Fuck you too asshole.
jk
@Amir Khalid:
Look at Beto’s resume and then look at those of Warren, Booker, Harris, Klobuchar, and Gillibrand. He’s not in the same damn league as any of them.
Amir Khalid
@jk:
If Beto is out of his depth compared to other candidates, I am confident that Democratic voters will notice that and not pick him. ETA: He should get to take his shot like any other candidate. The process is there for a reason, and it should be allowed to serve its purpose.
Johnnybuck
@jk: Fuck off Bernie bro
cokane
I actually don’t think Beto’s move is that dumb. Cornyn is going to be a helluva harder to beat than Cruz. Beto has some weird national buzz, and has a legit argument at being a strong-polling guy on the ticket either as the main or the VP. Seriously, his odds for beating the Senate #2 and well loved in Texas Cornyn was not strong.
I do think it would have been better overall for the party and the election chances if he went for Senate, but from a personal standpoint, this is the right move for him.
cokane
@Belafon: ah i see someone already covered this, but yeah, everything here is spot on.
ProfDamatu
@Belafon: I have to agree. I also suspect that if Beto ran against Cornyn and lost by more than his margin against Cruz (extremely likely), that might well end any chance he might have had to get to higher office. Having said that, I’m far from convinced that running for President is a good move, either.
I’d tell Beto that there’s no law that says every politician has to run for an office at every available opportunity. Sometimes, there’s just isn’t any office available for which you have a reasonable chance of success. How about campaigning for others, maybe pushing for a cabinet post should Dems take back the White House?
ProfDamatu
@jk: So the better play is for him to run against Cornyn and get his clock cleaned compared to his showing against Cruz? Come on! There’s just not any upside to him running for that Senate seat, and the downside is significant.
I personally don’t think he’s ready to run for President, in terms of being a good candidate to do the job (I’d like to see him get some more experience), but IMO it would just be stupid for him to run as the sacrificial lamb against Cornyn. Sacrificial lambs tend not to have much of a future in politics, and although he’s more promise than substance at this point, I still think it would be moronic to throw that away by running him for a statewide office in Texas. Like has been mentioned upthread – 1994 was the last time a Democrat won a statewide office in Texas, and it’s going to be longer than people think before the state begins to turn purple, much less blue.
Dave W.
@Wyatt Derp: Republicans had 17 candidates for president in 2016, and wound up with one of the worst-qualified of all of them as their nominee. Yes, they managed to pull out the general election, with some help from Comey. But it’s really not a recommendation for that kind of process if you want to be able to actually govern if you win.