Betty Cracker already posted Stacey Abrams’ (extremely polite!) rejection of the Biden camp’s VP offer. Reaction on political twitter has not been favorable for Uncle Joe…
Remember last week when everyone was all "well of course if they're floating the trial balloon she's already on board?"
Reader, she was not on board. https://t.co/odA2eaYCUR
— Dara Lind (@DLind) March 27, 2019
I'm still staggered by the hubris of them seemingly not even asking her. On brand given how Biden is, but still, good lord.
— Andrés Pertierra (@ASPertierra) March 27, 2019
Right, so he asked and she said no. That’s an even worse look!
— Jasmine Guillory (@thebestjasmine) March 27, 2019
But also, last night:
VP Biden takes the stage at an It’s On Us/Biden Foundation event that could be one of his final public appearances before announcing his 2020 plans pic.twitter.com/uVnFNknGZW
— Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) March 26, 2019
Biden on Anita Hill's accusations against Clarence Thomas: “I wish I could’ve done something … To this day I regret I couldn't give her the kind of hearing she deserved."
— Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) March 26, 2019
Poor, poor Biden, wishing he could help Anita Hill but blocked by the Judiciary Committee chairman [checks notes]…Joe Biden
— Brooklyn Cybele (@brooklyncybele) March 26, 2019
Hill last year: "People were asking, 'When are you going to apologize to her?' It’s become sort of a running joke in the household when someone rings the doorbell and we’re not expecting company. 'Oh,' we say, 'is that Joe Biden coming to apologize?'" https://t.co/QPbXHZXori
— Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) March 27, 2019
Yeah, we’ve all gotten smarter since the Clarence Thomas hearings, been a long time, standards were different then, yadda yadda. But the clumsy attempt to co-opt Abrams looks particularly bad, given what Professor Hill says here.
We have a whole bunch of really exciting, vibrant Democratic candidates with excellent ideas and support. Biden’s got top-rank name recognition, and all our warm memories of his service, not least during the Obama years. If he wants to be important (and useful), he’s got a chance to share his expertise with the up & coming crew. And if — as I suspect — he’s looking for an excuse not to run again, well: If his team can’t handle the ‘exploratory’ phase any more deftly than this, does he really want to test them against actual competition?
Feathers
Or, he asked, she gave him the sort of non-committal and very polite but truly means fuck off and die sort of reply that so many men read as YES, YES, YES!!!
Jerzy Russian
It is time to thank Joe for being the basis of all of those hilarious articles in The Onion and then wish him well as he becomes a private citizen again.
Major Major Major Major
Somebody must want him to run, since he’s number one in the polls by a long mile…
khead
Just gonna leave this right here.
Gin & Tonic
Sorta kinda on topic, was reading a very obscure article about some parts of the old family tree and found that my grandmother was a delegate to the 10th conference of the International Woman Suffrage Alliance in Paris in 1926. I knew she was an activist, and pretty far ahead of her time for Eastern Europe, but I didn’t know that.
B.B.A.
@Major Major Major Major: Name recognition.
Gin & Tonic
@Feathers: Saw the end of that comment and immediately thought of “and first I put my arms around him yes and drew him down to me so he could feel my breasts all perfume yes and his heart was going like mad and yes I said yes I will Yes.”
Barbara
@Gin & Tonic: That is very cool!
Nicole
Joe, repeat after me: “I am very sorry that I treated Anita Hill so disrespectfully. It was wrong of me. I made a terrible mistake.”
SOOOOOO simple. I don’t understand why it’s so hard for him. Oh wait, I do. He’s an XY.
A Ghost To Most
Don’t go away mad, Joe. Just go away.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: That is really cool. My mom was ahead of her time, too, but nothing as cool as that.
Barbara
@Nicole: More like, an admission of guilt on this matter would be an admission that he isn’t actually the person who can unify Democrats, but especially not black women. Think of all those sorority sisters who show up for KH events. I bet they all remember the Anita Hill hearings.
Another Scott
As I said earlier:
Someone wants him to run very badly, and I think it’s more old school political operatives looking for a big paycheck rather than a groundswell of voters calling for him.
I guess we’ll see sometime after Easter (April 21) if the latest breathless rumors are true.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: At this stage a good chunk of that is name recognition. Same for Senator Sanders. That doesn’t mean that he would or wouldn’t be the front runner if he got in, but right now the results you’re seeing are being buoyed by the fact that he’s very well known. And that he gets lots of free press because he’s the former VP.
jk
We’ve reached peak cluelessness from Uncle Joe:
h/t https://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-pol-joe-biden-anita-hill-hearing-20190327-story.html
Don’t forget this jerk lavished praise on Republican congressman and Trump enabler Fred Upton during the 2018 midterm campaign.
#Biden Sucks
Nicole
@Barbara: Which is so stupid, because an apology would make it all go away. Man, pointless pride is a really, really self-destructive behavior. I, as a good Democratic voter, don’t care if politicians positions change, as long as they change in the correct direction. But apparently some politicians just can’t ever admit they royally screwed up. Or… maybe their positions really haven’t changed as much as they’d like voters to think.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: His former staffers want him to run. It’s one thing to be his former Chief of Staff or his former National Security Advisor and now be a Senior Fellow or a Director at the Biden Institute and quite another to be the Chief of Staff or the National Security Advisor or the Secretary of Defense or the Secretary of State.
Ohio Mom
I love that joke, Who’s at the door, Is it Biden coming to apologize?
It says volumes about Hill’s spirit and strength.
BobS
Seems like Stacey Abrams got the same respect he gave Anita Hill.
Gin & Tonic
@WaterGirl: She was a singular woman. Her mother taught her, you never show your enemy your emotions.
Adam L Silverman
Ewww!
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: On this shitty day, it’s nice to be reminded of strong women.
Amir Khalid
I am not entirely surprised. We’ve known all along that Joe Biden is not the most tactically astute presidential candidate ever. He may lead the polls right now on name recognition. But aside from any skeletons in his closet re Anita Hill and his long dalliance with the insurance industry, he will come up against people with stronger policy-fu and a message/public persona better attuned to what Democratic voters want in 2020. It’s hard to see him being able to kindly-uncle his way to the nomination.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Who sits like that?
Adam L Silverman
Oh goody!
A Ghost To Most
@Gin & Tonic:
Impressive. Beats my pro basketball playing granny.
khead
@Adam L Silverman:
If you wannabe my lover, you gotta get with my friends.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Apparently nosferatu do. Or Simon Bar Sinister.
Amir Khalid
@Adam L Silverman:
If that’s true, and it may well be, then Biden’s living inside a bubble — not a good place to find a President.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: The pinky ring is what makes it complete.
Amir Khalid
@khead:
So tell me what you want, what you really really want.
Steve in the ATL
Apropos of nothing, which one of you recommended Sylvain Neuvel’s books? I just read the Themis trilogy and thoroughly enjoyed it, and I am not a big reader of sci fi. So kudos to you, mystery juicer!
Major Major Major Major
@B.B.A.: @Adam L Silverman: extremely early polling is actually more predictive than the conventional wisdom holds, even though it is partly name-recognition driven. (And counterexamples don’t actually affect an argument made from statistics that include the counterexamples.)
At any rate, I meant what I said: surely somebody must want this, probably a good portion of the people who say they do.
I can dig up the 538 link if anybody really wants…
Steve in the ATL
@Major Major Major Major: Biden/McAuliffe 2020!
Adam L Silverman
@khead: Also, EWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!
Adam L Silverman
@Amir Khalid: I could be wrong, but when I see him give speeches, I don’t pick the vibe that “I want to do this”. I pick up the vibe of “I sort of, maybe, have to do this”.
jl
@Amir Khalid: Very good point: ‘stronger policy-fu’.
Every candidate has problems and problematic issues in their history. Everybody has done things that royally piss somebody off. Gillibrand, Harris, Booker, all of them. But, the focus isn’t on the problems 24/7, because they have put out at least two or three good strong policy proposals.
What policy proposal has Biden put out? Zero as far as I know. Biden could do something to handle his history with the financial industry and financial industry friendly legislation. For example, he could put out proposals on financial industry policy that shows he understands what the country needs now. He hasn’t. Sadly, his candidacy so far has been nothing but over consulted posturing.
I think Biden had strong support in African-American community because of his history of very strong support of voting rights. Why didn’t he put out a policy on that issue rather than this pathetic attempted stunt with Abrams?
So, will be interesting to see how his poll numbers hold up if he continues floundering like this.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: It is what it is.
jl
And, Abrams’ ‘you don’t run for second place’ is a good line.
TS (the original)
Joe has to realise he is not a republican, the latter can lie about what they did/didn’t say and do & no-one including the media cares. Democrats carry every bad decision they made into every last election they run. President Obama rehabilitated Joe Biden, on his own he has too much baggage.
Amir Khalid
@Adam L Silverman:
As a few of us have noted in these threads, that is a strong counter-indication for a candidacy.
jk
@Adam L Silverman:
I hope that’s the reason. Of all the candidates to choose from, Biden clearly has the worst public speaking skills. I can’t bear listening to any more of his cringe worthy speeches.
Fair Economist
@jl: “I want to be President because only I can fix the problems we have with solutions I don’t have.” Not a good campaign slogan.
Adam L Silverman
@jk: He’s got seriously bad old man voice.
VeniceRiley
@Nicole:
Oooh, gurrrl, you in for some attacks & lectures! I mean, if this place is fair and not at all clique-ish.
I kid! (not really) But I always thought Joe Biden was Obama’s first big mistake. He’s the literal living embodiment of the “economic anxiety” lie.
Major Major Major Major
@Steve in the ATL: finally, a ticket for me!
Shana
@Adam L Silverman: Almost as creepy, OK creepier, than when Hubby and I saw Van Morrison trying to pick up a 20-something woman in Notting Hill in the early 90s. Ick, just ick.
Amir Khalid
@jl:
A lack of policy-fu is also why I don’t really fancy Beto’s chances.
khead
@Amir Khalid:
Yeah, I’m kind of regretting searching for that video. I need it to go away now.
Adam L Silverman
Ruh Roh!
Nicole
@VeniceRiley:
Oh, fine. #notallmen. Sigh.
(grins)
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Quinnipiac just release a poll of NY state and he’s very popular with a 62 – 24 percent favorability rating
Moverover, he has a 48-35 rating among non college whites (link page 4). He’s the only one in positive territory. In contrast Warren is underwater 22-45, as is Wilmer 35-52. All their populist efforts to win this demo over hasn’t worked.
Uncle Joe and his Trans Am are on stronger footing then blogs are willing to recognize. Joe is not my candidate, but the numbers are the numbers.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: I can make a call to a former student who is an NYPD officer and have you cited for jaywalking or something if you’re really jonesing for a ticket.
Fair Economist
@Major Major Major Major: I’d like to see the 538 link, because thinking about it the only times the initial polling was very predictive was if the leader had a killer machine (Reagan ’80, Bush ’00) or if they scared off almost all competition (Gore ’00, Hillary ’16). Huge fields like this are good at coughing up surprises (Carter ’76, Dukakis ’88, Trump ’16).
Adam L Silverman
@Shana: At his age he definitely needed to lift with his knees, not with his back!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Among other things that make me leery of a Biden run, I get: “I owe it to my dead son, and to the Biden name”
Major Major Major Major
@Fair Economist: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-and-bernies-support-isnt-just-name-recognition/
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L Silverman: no thanks, i’d feel awful if they got disciplined for citing a white man.
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
Surely Dolt 45 can dig up a mere $75K from the ’emergency’ funding he’s looting from the Pentagon. “It’s a matter of national security that Moore receive this appointment.” //
eemom
You broke my heart, Joe. You BROKE my HEART.
SiubhanDuinne
Cory Booker is affable and appealing and I like him a lot. He’d probably be around 5 or 6 right now in my ranked group of Dem candidates:
Harris
Warren
Buttigieg
Klobuchar
Gillibrand
Booker
Hickenlooper
O’Rourke
Tous les autres
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: He’s got a seriously bad old man look. It was startling to me how emaciated he looked at that party event in Delaware recently.
All the optics and scuttlebutt are going against him. I hope he steps back and reconsiders…
Cheers,
Scott.
Amir Khalid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
If it’s not Joe Biden who most wants Joe Biden to be President, maybe Joe Biden should spare Joe Biden the buttload of toil and trouble that inevitably comes with a presidential run.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: It’s really no bother, they have to do so many of those to give plausible cover for the rest of their over policing of minorities.
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: I’m looking forward to Catherine Rampell explaining to him how to file his taxes the next time they’re on CNN together.
Adam L Silverman
@Amir Khalid: Perhaps he could consult with one of the infinite Rudys Giuliani?
Redshift
@Major Major Major Major: One thing I get from that article is that I’m impressed with how well Kamala Harris is doing in Iowa, which doesn’t exactly seem like natural territory for her.
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
Now picturing a skit riffing off the number of Stellas at the end of the “I, Mudd” episode of Star Trek.
Major Major Major Major
@SiubhanDuinne:
Hmm.
Warren
Mayor Pete
Hick/Booker/Klobuchar
Gillibrand/Beto/Harris*
Crawling over broken glass
Sanders
*My friends in the SF justice system really did/do not like Harris; I’m trying to have an open mind but it is a bit difficult. Also, her housing plan calls for lots of rent subsidies
@Redshift: me too! (I’m fully open to the possibility that I’m wrong about her! Win me over as the debates approach!)
ETA oh right. Put Biden there right below sanders.
hilts
@jl:
@TS (the original):
Biden feels he’s entitled to be the nominee simply because he was Vice President which I find nauseating given the fact that much smarter and more capable candidates are available.
rikyrah
Denizcan Grimes (@MrFilmkritik) Tweeted:
Meghan McCain tried to school Stacey Abrams on The View today. She’s s not a politician. She is a talk show host who has written two books about her father’s political career.
Stacey Abrams has 3 degrees and has been in political office for 17 years. Take a seat, Meghan. https://twitter.com/MrFilmkritik/status/1111009226728587264?s=17
Barbara
@rikyrah: Abrams was impressive in the clip I saw and McCain was actually less disdainful and obnoxious than she was the last time Abrams got the best of her.
Adam L Silverman
@rikyrah: But was Stacy at Meghan’s wedding?
Jeffro
@Jerzy Russian:
To say nothing of his detective work in “Hope Never Dies”
(it’s actually an awesome quick read…the author has Biden so dead to rights, you’d think he was a DE native ;)
tobie
@jl: My sense based on nothing but the tidbits I’ve read on BJ is that he is still torn about running and since he can’t decide he’s also not putting out policy statements yet.
Redshift
@NotMax:
He could of he were remotely normal. But he’s incapable of spending money on anyone else, even if it’s for his own benefit, and even if it’s not his money, just our money he’s gotten his getting paws on.
SiubhanDuinne
@Major Major Major Major:
I’m hoping a lot of this will shake out in the debates. Until then, sorry, but I live in a part of the country that knows (or, frankly, cares) fuck-all about rent subsidies in SF. Not saying it’s not an issue for a non-zero number of voters; just saying it hasn’t bubbled to the surface here in Jawja so far.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: No doubt McAuliffe feels that, if and when Biden implodes, he will the be able to occupy the “Biden lane”.
/Cilizza or whomever
hilts
@Amir Khalid:
Biden has a lack of self awareness that I can’t tolerate.
Redshift
@Major Major Major Major: I’m actually just Harris-curious at this point, so my reaction to the article was genuine, not an attempt to push “my” candidate. If I do settle on her as my top choice, though, I’ll try to come up with a good sales pitch.
Jeffro
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
You forgot, “and I just KNOW I could win it in a walk against this clown” and also “I bet that ‘Obama Glow’ will rub off on me and carry me through – he and I were a great team, after all”
Mohagan
@SiubhanDuinne: You stole my list ! ?
Brachiator
@Major Major Major Major:
Slimy shit like this only makes me like Harris more.
I don’t know who these people are or why anyone should give a fuck what they think.
Jeffro
@SiubhanDuinne: Harris/Buttigieg all the way! ;)
(I think Amy Klobuchar’s actually just hoping to be Kamala Harris’ VP at this point, btw)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@rikyrah: I wanna give Twitter Nixon some kind of prize for pointing out that Our Budweiser Princess has “negative self-awareness”
SiubhanDuinne
@rikyrah:
I have never once watched an entire episode of The View. I have seen a few excerpts, many of them involving Meghan McCain. My takeaway? She is a disgrace to journalism, a shanda to her father’s memory, and an embarrassment to us all.
Major Major Major Major
@Brachiator: they are civil/immigration rights and environmental rights lawyers with, now, the state of California. I was sharing that to explain my reasoning, though, since I know she has a lot of supporters here; not to convince pseudonymous malcontents.
hilts
@Another Scott:
Biden got humiliated in two previous campaigns but those defeats haven’t seemed to give him any hesitation.
Biden’s going to need more than one lesson and he’s going to get more than one lesson.
h/t Citizen Kane
Jeffro
@Major Major Major Major:
That is a shame, when the answer is simple: build more. A lot of municipalities and some states are looking at ways to build new or renovate old housing in their areas – lots of possibilities. Public or public/private partnerships.
Ah well, her teacher pay raise proposal is a good one.
Ohio Mom
@Major Major Major Major: What is wrong with rent subsidies? I think I’d rather see subsidies for building new low and moderate income housing but this is not my area.
khead
@Major Major Major Major:
I kinda prefer the Deadspin convention of “getting hit by a bus” as opposed to “crawling on broken glass”. But I get your point.
NotMax
@SiubhanDuinne
More than likely a lousy tipper too.
;)
Major Major Major Major
@SiubhanDuinne: her and Booker’s proposals both have a lot of rent subsidies, which have basically tended to enrich landlords in urban cores at least. Vox has some info including links to opposing viewpoints! https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/2/2/18205913/rent-kamala-harris-cory-booker-poverty
SiubhanDuinne
@Jeffro:
Dream ticket right now, but I don’t like to close out the options.
That’s why I’m sending a few bucks to everyone in my top tier, and hoping for more clarity after the first couple of debates this summer.
Adam L Silverman
They seem nice!
J R in WV
@VeniceRiley:
Venice, you may be shocked, but I really agree with Nicole about Uncle Joe. “Is that Joe Biden coming to apologize?” is a wonderful place to put Uncle Joe. I hated what happened under Biden’s chairmanship in the Clarence Thomas hearings — watching those hearings was actually painfull!. Doctor Hill was treated with disrespect in an arena where she deserved at least respect.
Don’t know if that means I have agreed with you too. Don’t care either.
Mandalay
@hilts:
I have no idea where that notion comes from, but this claim from Biden stinks of entitlement and delusion:
He can certainly claim to be the most experienced (having been a politician since 1973), but that doesn’t come close to making him the most qualified.
tobie
The only candidate who has excited me thus far is O’Rourke. I like the way he uses language and frames issues with an emphasis on broader principles. I like that he can exude optimism while still expressing resolve in the fight for justice. I like that he brings up immigration as America’s greatest asset at every rally, and I like that he’s bilingual. Rhetorically the only other candidate who has this skill IMO is Buttigieg. I appreciate that Amy Klobuchar has a record of legislative accomplishment that none of the other Senate candidates rival. Booker would be next on my list. I’ve seen Harris speak live twice and wanted to be wowed but wasn’t. My views of Warren are so different than anyone here on BJ that I’ll only say that I don’t think many of her proposals are wise.
Brickley Paiste
I remember watching the Thomas confirmation hearings. I had zero interest in politics then (and was much happier) and because of that had zero knowledge of even the fundamentals.
But I remember watching Biden just destroying her and thinking “Wait, that (D) after his name means hes a democrat. I thought they were on the side of working people and fundamental fairness and all that. Huh. Go figure.”
Now that I think about it, I think watching that hearing is what moved me towards activism.
SiubhanDuinne
@NotMax:
I can totally see her in a four-star restaurant, snapping her fingers and braying “Oh, garçon!!”
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Via Pierce: Trump’s Chicago building is a bust. So proud of my hometown (or at least the urban center to which my hometown was a bedroom community)
they can’t get a tenant to occupy the space that overlooks the river, fercrissake
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: Well, they sound like very fine people, I don’t see what all the fuss is about…
Also, shouldn’t DOJ be focusing on the Humanitarian and Security Crisis at the Southern Border, instead? I hear we’re just about to be overrun down there.
How that particular court clerk continued typing without collapsing in hysterical laugher, I’ll never know…
NotMax
@<a href="https://balloon-juice.com/2019/03/27/election-2020-open-thread-say-goodnight-joe/#comment-7239124:<SiubhanDuinne
And pronouncing it “garkon.”
:)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@SiubhanDuinne: someone said on twitter, I think a few someones have made similar jokes: Megan McCain is the phrase, “I’d like to speak to your manager” given human form
Omnes Omnibus
@Mandalay:
I hate to break it to you, but every person who has ever run for president thinks that way.
Jeffro
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I’d kill to see a story like this – just one! – replace the endless trumpov-voter interviews and ‘heartland insights’ we have been subjected to ever since the guy with fewer votes conned his way into the WH. Just flat out talk about what a loser he is and how toxic his ‘brand’ (blech) is.
Adam L Silverman
@tobie:
Please see Ann Laurie on the mezzanine level for your reeducation camp assignment.//
NotMax
@Jim, Foolish Literalist
Premier location for a North Korean consulate. //
tobie
@Adam L Silverman: I really hope AL gets her wish and gets to keep her senator.
Brickley Paiste
@tobie:
Ooh, this is interesting. Could you say what you dislike about her policies and let me know where you are in the democrat/left spectrum?
I’ve heard lots of not even veiled misogyny thrown her way and other personal attacks thrown her way by the left, but I haven’t really heard any substantive criticism.
Brachiator
@Major Major Major Major:
Thanks for the clarification. I bristle at any kind of “these people don’t like her…” Maybe you intended something else, but I still would ask why I should care and also strongly suspect their motives. What does their like or dislike have to do with her qualifications?
And there is a false appeal to authority. You may respect their judgments, but there is no reason why anyone else should.
ETA. On other matters, thanks for the Vox link.
SiubhanDuinne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I’m not sure why they ever called that movie “Heathers.” From all I can gather, it should have just been called “Meg[h]ans” and set adrift on an ice floe.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: I’ll have a post on this tomorrow depending on how my day goes.
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: What did you do?
Matt McIrvin
I don’t want Biden to be the nominee, but keep in mind that if he doesn’t run, Bernie Sanders is next in line and would be the overwhelming early favorite. I think it’s still an open possibility that Sanders manages to eke out a nomination from everyone else mutually destructing in a divided field, because he’s the one guy with an intensely loyal base who actually hate all the other candidates. I also suspect he’d be crushed like McGovern in ’72, though I hope I’m wrong and I do have a poor track record of sniffing out electability.
NotMax
@SiubhanDuinne
What’s the first syllable of Ivanka? “I.”
What’s the first syllable of Meghan? “Me.”
Co-inky dinks?
:)
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
As hateful as those photos are, they should be included in Dem ads for 2020. “This is your GOP.”
Amir Khalid
@SiubhanDuinne:
I think there may be restaurants in America where calling a waiter “Boy!” (that being the English for garçon) gets you thrown out.
VeniceRiley
@J R in WV: Joe Biden didn’t apologise to Anita Hill and you didn’t apologize for calling me a homophobe. You’re Joe Biden. I don’t care either. I’d rather you forgo tagging me in reply from this point forward.
J R in WV
@Amir Khalid:
I don’t think Joe Biden can survive a long presidential campaign, starting with a hard run primary season. He’s much older than his age, if you see what I mean.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: Yep.
Major Major Major Major
@Brachiator: as my opinion was an outlier, I felt the need to briefly say why I held it.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
a troublingly distinct possibility, IMHO
It might also provoke a Bloomberg indie run, if Billions has time to get his name on the ballot in the face of the Wilmerdammerung
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
Sloppy coding on my part. A bi gezunt.
Ruckus
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
And who is being polled? And who is taking the polls? And what and how are they asking the questions?
The big thing is to understand that statistics uses raw data to tell a story. And that story is, most of the time, the story that the teller wants you to hear. Data can be manipulated, that’s the entire point of statistics in the first place. Sure there are people who will give you all the info so that you stand a better chance of see what it means but statistics is not a cut and dried process.
Steeplejack
@Gin & Tonic:
Cool. What country was she from? I ask because it must have been mind-blowing to go to Paris from anywhere in the 1920s.
hilts
@Matt McIrvin:
I’m not losing any sleep over Sanders. He’s facing a lot of genuinely appealing alternatives unlike 2016, so I don’t expect him to advance very far this time around.
Jay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
What kinda salon, Pearls of the Orient?
NotMax
@Steeplejack
Worked out quite well for Josephine Baker.
:)
More prosaically, was practically de rigueur for artists, writers and the debutante set.
Ruckus
@Major Major Major Major:
Is there another way to fix the problem that she is talking about other than rent subsidies, at least in any kind of reasonable timeframe? I’m asking because it seems as a DC politician this would, while difficult, be the fastest way if it is even possible. Too much local BS in the way to over come any other way would be my impression.
tobie
@Brickley Paiste: My gender is unclear from my screen name but I am a woman, which doesn’t mean that I’m immune to misogyny but makes it a little less likely.
My concern regarding Warren’s wealth tax comes from the fact that it failed to generate revenue in most of the developed world and most developed countries have repealed their version of the wealth tax. France, Germany, Luxembourg, Sweden all found that it led to massive capital flight, undervaluation of non-liquid assets and/or offshoring of non-liquid assets. Switzerland is the one country that’s managed to maintain a wealth tax but they lowered the rate to 0.5% (or possibly less) which is a lot less than Warren’s proposed 2%. Then again, their tax structure is also different since the Swiss pay most of their taxes to their municipality or canton, not to the federal govt.
I think today’s ag proposal is kind of a grab bag. In one page it talks about breaking up seed and chemical companies, ending contract farming, barring foreign ownership of agricultural land, and changing the entire farm equipment system, all held together by the line that corporations are gouging working folk and we’ve got to bring them to heel. I’m as concerned as the next person about agricultural consolidation and the fact that 99% of the world’s crop seed comes from 3 companies but then take the time to address one or the other issue in all their complexity.
Warren’s best when she does that. So, to end on a positive note, I like her plan for universal childcare. It’s good for working moms. It’s good for kids. It’s a great longterm investment in people.
Major Major Major Major
@Ruckus: Warren’s housing proposal tackles the problem on a number of fronts that are more effective in the short and long term.
hilts
@Mandalay: @Omnes Omnibus:
Vintage over-the-top bloviating bullshit from Biden in 1988
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1j0FS0Z6ho
Many of the claims he made in this video were inaccurate
https://www.apnews.com/cd977f7ff301993f7976974ba07c5495
Amir Khalid
@Matt McIrvin:
Bernie the non-Democrat may think that. But all his candidacy has for a supporting case is a good showing in what are still only name-recognition polls. I expect that to change over time, as Democratic voters get to examine candidates more closely on merit.
Aleta
OT
You can see some of Nick Miroff’s photos here:
https://twitter.com/NickMiroff
Matt McIrvin
@Amir Khalid: I have on the authority of Twitter that “he’s not a real Democrat” is an invalid argument, as proven by spelling it “hE’s NOt a ReAl DeMoCRaT”. See, refuted.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@tobie: I think Warren has good ides, especially about corporate governance, but the wealth tax seemed off to me from the start, an open invitation to crooked valuations, hidden assets, all kinds of crazy shit, especially when we have so much trouble enforcing existing tax law, and people who know more than I do say it’s unconstitutional, and that decision wouldn’t be made by Laurence Tribe, but by John Roberts and Schlitz Kavanaugh
Aleta
@Aleta:
A story from El Paso today
https://www.texasmonthly.com/news/customs-and-border-patrol-head-says-breaking-point-has-arrived-at-texas-border/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Web%20Social&utm_content=cpbconference
Omnes Omnibus
@hilts: I am a little confused. Are you trying to suggest that you don’t particularly care for Biden as a candidate?
tobie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: ‘Schlitz Kavanaugh’…you should copyright that. I’ll try to give credit if/when I use it.
Ruckus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
In my travels and careers I’ve had to rent retail space for my business. I considered location, location, location and never had to think about who was the property owner, as in would that property owner cause my business to suffer and possibly never get off the ground. If there was any involvement with the Trump name involved in any way, that would be my first through the 27th concern. My 28th concern would be, how fast can I run away. And this was long before he even ran for president.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@tobie: I got it from Bill Maher, i have to admit
NotMax
@Major Major Major Major
As an aside, have an in-law who works in the city department which signed on to and promotes the ‘poor door’ policy. When discussing it with him, found the majority of his justifications/defenses half-baked, and then he instantly shifts to “Let’s just talk about something else, okay?” if I deign to ask “How is this fundamentally any different in practice from Jim Crowism?”
Amir Khalid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Wilmerdämmerung: the Twilight of Wilmer?
(A warning: any reference to Wilmer as a sparkly vampire will be met with groaning.)
VeniceRiley
@tobie: I like Warren. In an ideal world without the landill of corporate money, I would imagine any rough policy edges/unintended consequences would be sanded down in the legislative committee process for any of her swing -for-the-fences ideas. Kinda like the founders envisioned. Such a result would be glorious indeed. And if anyone knows how to do a wealth tax that would punish capital flight, it’s her. She’s not my pick, but she is number 2 for me so far.
NotMax
@Amir Khalid
Republicans do lines. Democrats do Brownian motion.
;)
Major Major Major Major
@NotMax: republicans fall in line, democrats fall apart.
NotMax
@Amir Khalid
Moroseferatu?
(commence groaning)
SFAW
@NotMax:
Dass war (Nicht)Max Schreck-lich.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: Uncle Joe needs to learn to say Fuck’em.
NotMax
@Major Major Major Major
How did the food illness + flight back to the home of pizza and bagels work out?
Mandalay
@hilts: Yep, that’s Biden. He’s a blowhard, a bullshitter and an asshole. Fuck this “Uncle Joe” shit.
Ruckus
@Major Major Major Major:
OK.
I’m just asking because it seems that a lot of time there are loopholes in most any way to get help to the less fortunate in that they often don’t take into account that money is the easiest and fastest way, even if it is not the best way to really solve the issue. And of course the premise is that the money is available and spendable, which it often is not.
IOW I’m not arguing for Harris’s ideas, right now I like her for the way she comes across, her personality. She’s not my first choice, and if Warren was a bit younger, Harris would move to third place. And yes I’m being agist. Warren and I are less than a month apart in age and that makes me just a bit less ready for that right now. This could change and we have a long time and many miles to travel.
Ladyraxterinok
@Major Major Major Major: My 49YO son in IA is a dem but definitely not a political junky. When I asked his preferences, he said Biden and Bernis were ok and he didn’t recognize the names of other candidates whose names I mentioned,
I think his attitude explains why Biden and Bernie are high in polls–they’re the only names most of those responding recognize.
Fair Economist
@Omnes Omnibus:
But they don’t *say* it that way. A very important part of politics is saying things smoothly, and knowing when *not* to say something, and Biden is rather poor at that for a top level Democrat. (The media lets Republicans get away with a lot more.)
Jay
@Ruckus:
“Scott’s latest posts on performative cruelty and Trumpism/Republicanism (a distinction increasingly without a difference) reminded me that I’ve been meaning to write about Kathryn Edin’s and Luke Shaefer’s great ethnography of extreme poverty in contemporary America.
$2.00 A Day follows the lives of a diverse group of American families living on less than two dollars per day cash income per family member. At any one time, millions of Americans are in this category. People in this situation have been devastated by “welfare reform,” the now nearly a quarter century old package of federal legislation that shredded the social safety net for the very poor in particular.”
http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2019/03/2-00-day
“The reason the $2-a-day poor do so anyway is that the practice of substitution doesn’t work for them. They have no cash to spend on food in the first place. Meanwhile, the need to pay the light bill, or even get the kids new socks and underwear, can seem more compelling than the need to eat in a couple of weeks’ time. What’s more, it’s easier for a family with nothing to get food from another source—such as a food pantry—than to acquire those other things from charities. This is why food stamp “trafficking,” though rare among the poor more generally, is common among the $2-a-day poor.”
Omnes Omnibus
@Ruckus:
Are you saying this guy was her prom date?
hilts
@Omnes Omnibus:
I don’t trust Biden’s judgement on full rest in non stressful situations so I sure as Hell wouldn’t trust his judgement if he were sleep deprived and dealing with a major crisis. I’ve always considered him a joke and find it incredible that he’s advanced so far in politics given how inarticulate and vacuous he is.
# Say No to Clueless Joe
tobie
@VeniceRiley: Whoever is the candidate will need to campaign not just for the White House but for the Senate, and every Democratic Senate candidate will have to work their tail off for the whole ticket. No Democratic President should have to ever face Mitch wall-of-obstruction-and-destruction McConnell again. I so want that man to see the door.
Jay
@NotMax:
They still do cocaine?
Mary G
Here is a non-political long read I enjoyed in the LA Times, about Hispanic peoples’ love of Vicks VaPo Rub.
My Guatemalan housemates are examples. They try it first on almost any ailment. One of my cats started sneezing, and took violent exception to it after smelling the jar thinking to get a treat. (No housemates were harmed.) There is a picture near the end of the article of a Chihuahua with amazing eyebrows.
Redshift
@jl:
Ironically, I’m pretty sure it was Joe Biden I saw on Letterman back in the day, letting him in on the little secret that “no one runs for vice president.”
VeniceRiley
@tobie: Yeah agree. You know who had (has) the fundraising and party leadership, worldwide serious connections, gravitas ability to do all that? Hillary. Too bad Wilmer & Vladimir & Trump & the insane sexist asshole media had to fuck her up. Debbie should have butched up and barred Wilmer from running. I’ll never forgive him for ending survivable Earth in service to his ego. I’ll never forgive anyone that had a hand in it. it’s that serious to me.
hilts
@Mandalay:
From your lips to God’s ears. I hope there are millions of voters across America who share your sentiments so we can send Biden off into the sunset as quickly as possible.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Jeffro: Build more is a good long term solution, where you have land to do so; however there needs to be short term solutions. Also when they do “build more” it’s high end housing.
Omnes Omnibus
@hilts: I am just surprised by the level of vitriol being thrown at a person who (if he runs) is unlikely to make it past Super Tuesday.
NotMax
@Omnes Omnibus
First thought, mistakenly, was the link would lead to this fellow.
;)
Inventor
@Adam L Silverman: O’Dell and Cook must be the least popular in the group. They didn’t even merit nicknames.
hilts
@Fair Economist:
Well, that’s a bit of an understatement. I’ve watched Biden for years and he’s consistently been a terrible public speaker. I just wish he’d cut short this fucking Hamlet bullshit and announce he’s running already. I’m fed up with this slow rollout routine.
VeniceRiley
You know what would be comedy gold? If Biden annouced and the hour later Hillary and Stacey announced as a joint ticket, and promised to make Anita Hill AG. That would be all the popcorn in the world. I’d vote for that.
rikyrah
This is crazy
Prosecutors say Avenatti wanted in on NY sex-slave case https://apnews.com/85c0159783bb49258fd58d88614d4c24
tobie
@VeniceRiley: I hear you. The wound is still very raw for me, too. The only thing that makes me feel a bit better is that Nancy Pelosi is kicking ass. How many times have people written her political obituary? Well, she’s beaten all the odds and proven to be the most formidable foe the Republicans have had to face. If not for her, Gawd knows where we’d be right now.
Mike in DC
1st debate is in June. The 3rd debate will effectively cut the number of viable candidates to 10-12. I expect that the frontrunners will be hit hard beginning no later than the 2nd or 3rd debate. Also, the primaries are frontloaded, and there are very few delegates up for grabs after April. So I expect that there will be no repeat of 2016, unless there’s truly a mixed bag of results through March 2020.
NotMax
@Mike in DC
Expecting Super Tuesday to be immediately followed by Dropout Wednesday.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@NotMax: Yup.
hilts
@Omnes Omnibus:
It’s Biden’s monumental goddamn motherfucking arrogance that I don’t particularly appreciate.
Here’s a guy who’s 77 goddamn years old (way too old like Sanders) who thinks just because he was Obama’s veep we should simply fucking hand him the nomination.
There’s also the sexism implicit by his entry into this race. Here we have 4 accomplished, qualified female candidates Warren, Harris, Klobuchar, and Gillibrand but our Uncle Joe just doesn’t think they pass muster. I’m a 50 something white male and I’m convinced that these women are smarter than Biden, would have better judgement than him, and they’re obviously head and shoulders above him in terms of their public speaking skills. These women have gravitas that Biden wouldn’t have in a million fucking years. I find it hard to imagine a female politician aged 77 and as consistently bumbling and buffoonish as Biden would get a pass from the pundit class the way that Uncle Joe has through his entire career and I resent this odious double standard.
Ladyraxterinok
@Omnes Omnibus: We have 2 problems– many whites think black people are lazy and stupid, so if a black man was a 2 term president, then anybody could be president AND 2 an obviously incompetent man is prez and praised by media, so if he can do it then I sure can
Major Major Major Major
@NotMax: I was just going back to SF. Where I still am! NYC on Friday finally. And it went fine, but I really didn’t start feeling confident I could make it until I was actually on the plane, so it was close. Got a lot of sleep at the right times though, and the jet lag has been surprisingly gentle.
I’ve been taking melatonin though so that could be part of it.
Plato
Fuck bob mueller.
WaterGirl
@Jeffro: I started reading that on the train on the way back from Christmas and then promptly forgot about it. It was fun and well done, I thought. Will have to pick it up again.
Jay
@rikyrah:
Bad lede,
What the body says, ain’t what the headline claims.
Avenanatti may, or may not, be engaged as a lawyer for Bronfman in the nxivm cult case.
Ladyraxterinok
@Ruckus: IMHO in the recent pics of her I’ve seen, Warren looks like she’s
aged significantly. Worrying
Jay
@rikyrah:
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.vulture.com/amp/2019/03/michael-avenatti-nxivm-case-clare-bronfman.html
Omnes Omnibus
@hilts: Hey, knock yourself out. I am opting for the not shitting on any actual Democrat who is running approach. At this point, I see two candidates who have the one thing that I think is vital for our candidate – charisma out the ass. And they are Harris and O’Rourke. Of the two, Harris seems like the best bet this far out, but I am not making my mind up yet. In the spring of 2007, Edwards seem like a good bet and look how that turned out.
WaterGirl
It’s storming here and the thunder is making my windows rattle, which I have never experienced before in my decades in this house. I wonder what’s up.
Ruckus
@Jay:
Did you mean to respond to me?
Anyway, I’ve never lived on $2/day. I’ve lived close to that, in this century. So I can’t say I know how hard that is, but I can imagine without much if any trouble what it’s like to really not know where I’m going to live or where meals more that a day or so out are going to come from or what the possibility is of never finding out. I don’t really think I need a lecture on being poor.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Completely agree about charisma. I think Buttigieg has something in the same neighborhood as charisma, though I haven’t been able to come up with a good word for it.
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
Warren and I went to high school more than a few miles apart, we really weren’t really able to date, as we hadn’t met at the time.
NotMax
@WaterGirl
Presence? The neighborhood next door to charisma.
Jay
@Ruckus:
I was pointing out that rent subsidies, could have a big impact, not just for landlords.
Socialized “free” bucks would have a much bigger impact in the US if the Pentagon didn’t suck up a huge chunk of it.
Does New York still have that building code that allows the Rich not have to mix with the proles by dumping the proles out into the alley via a seperate entrance?
Mike in Pasadena
Although this is a dead thread, watched Stacey Abrams on the View this morning. She was really impressive. Well- spoken, articulate, quick on her feet, just, well, damn. She’s really got it together.
Mary G
@Ladyraxterinok: There is a video of her going around Twitter this week. She’s running to catch a train, faster than the 20 and 30 somethings with her. I also have no doubt her medical history will be much better than Twitler’s.
Ruckus
@Ladyraxterinok:
I know that all of us age differently so comparing myself to her based upon DOB could be a bit of a stretch.
But. Most people have issues starting about mid 60s. Some of those issues are minor at best/worst but many are not at all. President is a very stressful job, unless you spend all day on the shitter and don’t give a damn if anything other than press might be important, as the current occupant does. President Obama was 47 when he took office. That would be 24 yrs younger than Warren would be – 71. Look at a current picture of him. He’s aged more than most have in those 8 yrs. How do you think she’s going to look in 2 yrs, let alone 10? I like her for the most part and I like a lot of her ideas but if she’s 71 taking office and makes 2 terms she’ll be 79.
I’ll stop here and let that sink in.
WaterGirl
@NotMax: That’s not exactly it, but it’s not bad. It helped me think of another word – I find Buttigieg compelling. He has a compelling message, and I think he’s a compelling messenger.
Not quite charisma, but it speaks to an emotional connection, so it’s not just about policy, which is also true of charisma. Buttigieg is in my top 3 for sure.
Closing the computer now, hoping for sleep, even with the rattling windows and everything that is weighing on me. ‘Night all.
Ruckus
@Jay:
OK, wasn’t sure about the start of your comment, seemed to be going to someone else. Hadn’t read all the thread, been on the phone for a while with a friend whose dad is 92 and not really capable of adulthood on his own any longer. It’s a bit of a sticky wicket given his personality.
Emma
@Mary G: I have a big container of it next to my bed. So does everyone in my family. El Vivaporru is sacred! BTW, the most current American version smells slightly different. We drive about an hour to get to a Cuban pharmacy to get the right stuff.
hilts
@Omnes Omnibus:
I’m laying off all the candidates except for Biden because I think he’d be a disastrous nominee, I find his personality deeply obnoxious, and we have many better options.
normal liberal
@WaterGirl:
I’m an hour west of you, and thinking about which tree falling over would do the most damage. It’s the exciting part of climate change…
Amir Khalid
I am waiting impatiently for the late-night (afternoon, for me) open thread.
SectionH
.
Redshift
@Mike in Pasadena: Definitely check out the interview with Abrams on Chris Hayes’ “Why is this Happening” podcast. (You don’t need podcast software, just search for the website and you can play it there.) She’s very impressive, and really fun.
ola azul
@Omnes Omnibus:
Perhaps. But then, who knows? Thinking back on ’16 and the big Repub field, this was precisely the reasoning employed re: Trump when he first entered the race. And yet, Trump got the nod, shocking all, including himself.
Can I see a scenario in which Dems cannot reach consensus on *anyone* in their impressive field b/c we’ve all got our personal favorites — and then a dundering clod like Joe Biden benefits by default, especially by the suits, as a cringeworthy flight to safety?
Why, yes. Yes, I can. So if you’re right, no harm done. But if you’re mistaken?
This, to me, is one fount from which the vitriol arises. Among many. And were Biden to bumble into the Dem nod as Trump did the Repub, imo, it would be disastrous — both politically and policy-wise. A hide-bound unself-aware gaffe-prone dinosaur is, I’ma thinking, decidedly not the look Dems wanna project in this of all years. A Biden campaign would have, again imo, an exceptionally depressive, demoralizing impact upon the energized electorate we presently have and need to turn out and win.
Don’t reckon Joe understands that most of the good feeling he presently enjoys derives almost en toto from the reflected glory of serving faithfully beside a very popular Dem president. Also don’t think Joe understands that his name-recognition and the aforementioned service in the Obama admin represents more’va ceiling than a floor in his support.
Like Bernie, I wish they would both take a bow and sit this one out, but the dream of being president must be one helluva drug.
Wasn’t it Billy Shakes who had Hamlet opine while hiding behind the arras and observing Falstaff cavorting with Mistress Quickly: “Is it not strange that desire should so long outlive performance?”
NotMax
@Amir Khalid
Mid-evening for us in the Aloha State. Curiosity duly piqued.
Jay
@Ruckus:
Sorry Ruckus,
Even second hand helping people, even by just listening, with those sort of problems is draining.
Take care of your friend.
sgrAstar
@M4: it would be >>>> useful if you could tell us *why* your friends don’t like Harris.
Thx.
Amir Khalid
While I wait, let me just share that I have found myself in a comment war on YouTube that has gone on a bit longer, and to less point, than I would like. The video was of a young music fan — in his twenties, I think — enjoying his first enounter with Johnny B. Goode. I had thought it would be uncontroversial to quote the legendary musician Stevie Wonder calling Chuck Berry the true king of rock’n’roll. I mentioned that Elvis Presley was a singer who became rock’s first big star by copying black artists; that Elvis didn’t write songs, wasn’t a noted instrumentalist, and is generally not considered a great musical innovator.
I did not expect to be accused of prejudice: championing Chuck Berry over Elvis because I am not white. I’m kind of glad I didn’t mention that I think Chuck was a way better looking dude than Elvis.
Omnes Omnibus
@ola azul:
Then Biden gets the nomination and we all crawl over broken glass to vote for him.
ola azul
@Omnes Omnibus:
Well, ya. That’s a gimme. You will. I will. Expect most everyone here will.
Am far, far less sanguine that alla peeps we need to pull that off will, which is the upshot of what I’s driving at.
Whence comes the vitriol, you wondered. Perhaps imperfectly, but that’s what I’s try’nta address. Not sure the preemptive hostility will prevent Biden from entering the race, but given his antiquated and unimpressive-if-not-objectionable record, it ain’t unjustified. Who knows, might even work.
hilts
@ola azul:
I concur. I believe we have a very impressive roster of candidates and your horrific scenario of Biden winning the nomination gives me nightmares.
Biden’s selfishness and sense of entitlement is driving me crazy. I wish Obama or some other Democrats could stage an intervention with him and tell him that his time has passed and he needs to step aside.
ola azul
@hilts:
Most succinct encapsulation re: a Joe-run I’ve heard:
The very people who should be advising Joe not to run are precisely the ones promoting the idea.
Joe’s like the punchy boxer whose head’s been stove in one too many times, but his rapacious family keeps spinning pretty little fables and nursing his nostalgic dreams of being a contender, mostly to cynically wring the very last dollar out of what remains of his husk of ability.
I really, really really don’t want Joe to fumble into the Dem nod, and just onna human level, I don’t wanna see Joe embarrass himself and be shorn of dignity by entering a race in which time has clearly (and thankfully) passed him by.
sukabi
Jay
@ola azul:
Rocky XVIII?
SectionH
@Amir Khalid: YouTube comments? Srsly? DON’T DO THAT! Just, no. Srsly.
Chuck Berry IS at least A king of rock n roll. Elvis popularized it with white kids. I was a generation or more behind Elvis, and mostly despised him – unfairly, tbh – because of who his fans were. Even then. Hint: racist assholes… same as it ever was.
The Be-attles weren’t imitating Elvis… ;->
The actual S.A. of either of those guys is ~0 for me.
ola azul
@Jay:
Ha! If Joe enters the race, I expect the vocal base to try’n knock the hair-plugs right outta his head.
(And no one wants to see that!)
Chris Johnson
@Major Major Major Major:
Does it now? I can see how in California that could be alarming, and it obviously doesn’t try to directly fight rent-seeking behavior on the part of landlords, but I’ve seen a lot of rent subsidies in the form of Section 8 housing and that can be pretty functional. Harris has been improving for me: maybe the Dem field is sort of cross-pollinating ideas for the betterment of all. It seems as if new kinds of consensus are turning up, and I think ‘new kinds’ is a recipe for doing better in elections, even against the huge amount of outright cheating we’ll see.
Chris Johnson
@Matt McIrvin:
No, I don’t think so. I’ve taken some serious heat around these parts for being exactly that intensely loyal Sanders partisan and pretty much exactly that sort of person, but he is not anything like what he was relative to the rest of the Dem roster, back in the day. I was most intensely on his side early on like the NH primary when I worked for him and donated hundreds (not thousands) of dollars.
What happened? First, he is no longer the only socialist or hard-left person in all of Washington DC, but there’s more. He’s taken NRA money and has been really slow to respond to the mind-boggling list of school/public shootings because he’s playing to his Vermont base that’s got more rural hunters etc. than usual. His response to ICE, as in abolish ICE and get rid of what is shaping up to be American stormtroopers beyond anything we’ve seen: he did really badly on that.
And though I don’t see much support for this viewpoint outside Balloon Juice, I think he was getting pushed by Russia and didn’t want to believe it. I think the penny finally dropped when he booted Tad Devine, whom I’m real suspicious of (what a track record!). And I feel personally betrayed by that because the guy was carrying forward narratives that had no support back in the day, narratives that deserved better than blundering around crying out for justice whilst getting propped up by Boris Badenov.
But I’m trying not to dump on non-Republican candidates so I’ll stop. It’s too easy to get angry these days.
Chris Johnson
@tobie:
What if there are other valid reasons for applying a wealth tax, such as punitive justice or the correction of systemic effects?
It seems pretty obvious to me that accumulations of capital make and control other capital in a feedback loop, causing it to cluster around certain people over no kind of merit or worthiness at all. It’s a simple mechanical function having to do with access and I’ve seen the behavior even in really abstract simulations. Even in the complete absence of merit or even meaning, you get these pockets of runaway wealth as a simple mechanic of the circulation of money. I realize not everyone has run such simulations but it’s a very simple experiment and rather counterintuitive.
On top of that, Balzac was not fooling when he said that behind every great fortune is a great crime: when you talk about wealth remember you’re talking about people like industrialists who’ve been recently called out as historical Nazi supporters. Look at who’s running the country right now and their attitude towards great crime. There is absolutely nothing wrong with pushing for wealth tax purely to moderate the wealthy’s desire to commit great crime: to do otherwise is like trying to do things in order to make Republicans like you and call you bipartisan. It’s a sucker’s game. To fret about capital flight is like getting made at banks for being robbed: these are all criminals in intention and action, on so many levels, and you can’t bargain for their permission. Ya gotta have rules, and they will never want rules. Wealth tax is good for them and society. Imagine the alternative.
Another Scott
@?BillinGlendaleCA: A colleague at work’s parents have a home in Silicon Valley – maybe 5 minutes from Apple and all he other tech giants. He said it’s a modest 2-3 bedroom place (I’ve forgotten the details) that is 50+ years old. It said it is appraised at $2.3M.
Subsidies won’t help in a market like that. It’s pathological. It would suck up a vast amount of money to help only a few people.
More supply is the only answer in places like that, and getting more supply is a huge problem (not enough land, too much money chasing too little land, people in 1500 sq ft homes not wanting to live next to apartment towers, etc., etc.)
There should be a baseline housing deduction in the tax code, but making it fair would be very difficult. $1500 a month is cheap/modest here in NoVA, it would buy a mansion in rural Mississippi.
Dunno how, but it’s something that Congress should address.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chris Johnson
Found the simulation: https://lucasvw.github.io/main/2017/06/22/money.html
Exponential wealth distribution happens in the complete absence of meaning, much less merit.
THEN you add crimes, which the rich are more easily able to do (and rewarded for) and that’s how you get to where we are.
You can get rid of the near-zero portion of the curve pretty effectively with wealth tax at astonishingly low percentages: 2% or even 0.5% is by no means insignificant. I suppose that’s assuming we don’t tax and then use the money to raise armies to conquer countries and give the spoils back to the most wealthy again, but in the computer model if you take a % from the richest each step and give it directly to the poorest, it pushes up the middle of the distribution strikingly and wipes out that ‘tail end’ that’s hovering around destitution.
Captain C
@Adam L Silverman: Not only IOKIYAR, but I suspect the new argument will be that Rethugs shouldn’t even have to pay taxes at all, so Moore should get more money back because reasons.
Just One More Canuck
@Adam L Silverman: they were Separated at Birth
Bobby Thomson
Called it. It was obvious from the reporting if you read through the lines they hadn’t cleared this with her.
Shalimar
@Gin & Tonic:
Wanna-be players in strip clubs?
Uncle Cosmo
@Ruckus: I realize this thread is among the not-even-crawling-dead, but as a statistician I had to respond to this:
So far, so OK, but –
Um, no. That’s not statistics. That’s the abuse of statistical methods.
Um, no it is NOT. “The entire point of statistics” is to process & analyze data that is incomplete and noisy to extract a clearer understanding of what is actually going on beneath/behind them.
Robert Heinlein (in the persona of Woodrow Wilson Smith bka Lazarus Long, a 2000-year-old coot even more crotchety than you) famously remarked that the second best way to lie is to tell the truth, but not all of it. Statistical malpractice – for that’s what you’re complaining about – often consists of obtaining misleading “results” that tell the desired story while concealing the incorrect &/or unethical means used to obtain them. E.g., a borderline-unethical pollster like Rasmussen will concoct a “turnout model” that overweights Rethuglican respondents to drive a GOP-ascendant narrative … & (curiously enough) “refines” those weights as the election nears in order to retain a figleaf of impartiality for future customers. For Raz, every poll is a push-poll opportunity – & a push-poll isn’t a statistically-sound survey at all, but a campaign document.
I tell you this: The truly statistically sound & impartial surveys are the ones done for campaigns (or parties or corporations) who are eager (or desperate) to know the actual state of affairs. And those results (along with the methods used to obtain them) are kept very close to the vest.
Long ago I was given (it’s still somewhere in my files) a copy of the results of a survey done for a campaign in the early 1970s by a nationally recognized survey firm. One of the terms of service was that if the campaign released ANY of the survey results, the firm reserved the right to make ALL of the survey public – the questions & answers & the methodology used to select the sample. The survey company refused to allow the customer to cherry-pick its results for public consumption & thereby call into question its competence. I personally have no doubt that campaign organizations are still commissioning competent, no-holds-barred polls because they need to know what is actually happening within the electorate – but you & I won’t see them until long after the fact, if ever. Instead we get to see the warped products of pushme-pollyou doolittling borderline-unethical outfits blowing smoke, throwing sand, & hoping to sell a bigbadwolfish narrative benefiting the client in the sheep’s clothing of scientific accuracy.
Statistical practice is not the problem. Statistical maipractice owing to ignorance, stupidity, or (more likely) deliberate dishonesty, that is the problem.
Brachiator
@Uncle Cosmo: Again, recognizing that this thread is probably deader than dead:
Great points! I hope you bring this up again in another thread, because the points need to be emphasized again and again.
Another Scott
@Uncle Cosmo: Indeed.
One of the things I learned in College was that doing good polling of the country is really, really hard. The NORC’s GSS is an example of polling done very well. E.g. once they decide on a person to survey, they will move heaven and earth to try to get that person to participate.
Well done opinion surveys give actual, meaningful information.
E.g. In 2018 – 27% of Democrats (increasing since 2002) and 11% of Republicans (flat) say the Bible is a “Book of Fables”.
Cheers,
Scott.