Fourth poll: CNN, CBS, PBS/NPR/Marist & NBC/WSJ showing the Barr strategy, while allowing Trump Admin to control initial dialogue, has utterly failed in lifting the cloud for any voters beyond his base. Maybe that's all Trump cares about, but got to think Barr wanted more impact https://t.co/MDzzvvIQ3X
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) March 31, 2019
What if the media failure was not the Russia *coverage*, but the breathless "THIS IS A TURNING POINT AND AN EXONERATION" TV blather a week ago? https://t.co/DI7LiaG9gW
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) March 31, 2019
Trump won pure indies by 9 pts in 2016 (according to the ANES). These NBC/WSJ numbers represent a significant decline in support among America’s true swing voters. It’s going to be hard for Trump to win re-election if he remains this far underwater (not a foregone conclusion). https://t.co/8fdkgbNwED
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) March 31, 2019
If you want an image of the future: Trump approval with white men is +22, with *young* white men it’s -2. pic.twitter.com/LbbycPsy9p
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) March 31, 2019
Big congrats to everyone who wrote a This Changed Everything take, you were definitely born yesterday https://t.co/nL7xyXFgts pic.twitter.com/hJSCf8X1Pn
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) March 27, 2019
The political press almost seems surprised that people who didn’t like Trump before this weekend are a bit unsatisfied that he was cleared by the AG that looks to the world like was installed for that purpose. https://t.co/9cprsyAd6R
— Schooley (@Rschooley) March 27, 2019
It's actually pretty remarkable that just 3% might be persuaded by Barr's little PR memo. https://t.co/hkU7SYm0qf
— emptywheel (@emptywheel) March 27, 2019
Read it …. and …. make your own conclusions as to how this entire process has been hijacked and is being buried as we speak https://t.co/dXfZiMobFF
— ✨Rey Skywalker ✨ (@Rey_Sistance) March 31, 2019
Periodic reminder that the Russia investigation began when a Trump campaign official, who has since pleaded guilty to a felony and served prison time, blabbed to a bar full of diplomats that he knew how Russia was about to drip leak hacked emails to hurt Hillary.
— Devin Nunes' Mullet (@Zeddary) March 31, 2019
Ohio Mom
I need to get ready for bed, this is a nice note to end the day on. May this trend continue to accelerate.
My favorite aunt remarked to me not long ago that one of the things she misses most about being young is the ability to just fall into bed. Now, she said, there are medicines to take and stretches to do, teeth to floss, the list goes on. On the cusp of old age, I can see what she means. Off to my abulations!
Kay
You have to say “news analysis” in a deep voice to get the full effect of the cloud-lifting
What are the low quality Trump hires doing with that report, btw? Transcribing it in calligraphy? What’s the hold up?
Jerzy Russian
I read some pretty funny papers on the astrophysics preprint server (the posting for April 1 appeared this afternoon). prior to that posting, I was listening to golf on the radio, which I sometimes do when I am feeling frisky. I might need to go to bed early after all of the excitement of the day.
Mike in NC
Media morons seem to be oblivious to the fact that NOBODY has read the actual goddamn Mueller Report.
A Ghost To Most
We are fortunate in our adversaries.
plato
@Kay:
Heh, but did you see that clevah copter photoshop?
peter fucking baker. the other half of fynyt magat team.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Kay: Funny how the garbage Vichy Times never “lifted the cloud” from Clinton when Comey cleared her of illegality.
Jerzy Russian
@Kay: To be fair, they did say a cloud. There are many clouds remaining.
Kay
I was trying to follow the DeVos/Special Olympics controversy and I realized by Day Two I don’t believe a word any Trump hire says so it doesn’t matter if DeVos wanted to cut it some other bottom of the barrel hire wanted to cut it – I all really need to is the proposed budget and I can completely dismiss anything they say.
Is it in there? Yes? Okay then. Done. On to the next horror :)
Today, for example, they were all out there lying about the GOP/Trump health care proposals. But we have a written record! That they wrote! So you just need that and you’re done. Easy, and infinitely less annoying.
plato
Erdogan’s end is beginning?
Kay
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
God, no. It got much, much worse. Look, there was only one way they were going to lift that cloud. Lock. Her. Up.
Adam L Silverman
@plato: Erdogan has been a master at exploiting the grievances, real and imagined, of rural Turks outside of Istanbul and the other cities.
Adam L Silverman
Way OT: I have read the best comment on the Internet tonight. It is in regard to Emily Bett Rickards not returning to the cast of Arrow for its final season:
rikyrah
So, the crazyfication factor believes Barr???
Adam L Silverman
@Kay: I’m not even sure that would do it. If you polled Republicans and conservatives about whether Secretary Clinton should be summarily executed, you’d easily get majority support.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Beto Mania Sweeps Texas
Austin (photo)
Houston (photo)
El Paso (photo)
Muslims for Beto (photo)
Girls for Beto (photo)
Kay
@plato:
Critics. Haters gotta hate, but we’re with you, big guy.
plato
@Adam L Silverman: Butthurt politics is what the thugs like totus, erdogan, duterte and their ilk do best.
mad citizen
It’s just so sad that anyone would say the support the babbling idiot. Maybe next President should throw out the idea of forced emigration of our stupids.
Mandalay
Except it isn’t.
Trump has been more popular (or more precisely, less unpopular) during his second year than his first. He is doing better in the polls now than at this time last year. And every Republican is Congress is shit scared of him.
And Yglesias is full of shit. He brags that “Trump approval with white men is +22, with *young* white men it’s -2.”, yet according to comments to his post, support for Trump from *young* white men two years ago was -20. So Trump is INCREASING his support with young white men. Unfortunately It’s not possible to check either way because Yglesias doesn’t bother to link to the source of the polling data he cites. Still, BJ dutifully reprints the claim as though it’s meaningful.
The problem in this case isn’t fake news. The problem is that the media (e.g. BJ) is babbling about bight shiny snippets of polling data without any clue about their accuracy, or their historical significance.
Kay
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
I might back Klobachur. She’s to the Right of me, but she might be mean enough to beat these people. “Mean” isn’t a negative in this context, I think.
What’s Trump gonna say? “You’re mean to your staff”. She can say “at least I pay mine”. Zing! That counts as a “zing” in Minnesota, btw.
Peale
@Mandalay: yep. I looked at the supporting chart and was like, if trends continue, he’ll be at +22 with white youth by next year.
SFAW
@Mandalay:
Here’s a link to the graph Yglesias put up. It looks like you can filter as much/little as you want. But, yeah, he was at -20 percent two years ago. Nice to see our youngs is learning just as well as the olds.
Adam L Silverman
@Kay: See, you and Rick Wilson DO have something in common!
(emphasis mine)
https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-losing-2020-20190331-qz6zaomkfndxlleg75yhdqyvou-story.html
Redshift
@Kay: I found it infuriating the other day when I heard someone trot out the “they’re just trying to distract from…” about the Special Olympics debacle. No, they aren’t; they’ve tried to defund the Special Olympics every year, and this year it just happened to get noticed before Congress there the whole budget in the trash.
No matter how oddly comforting it may be too think there’s an evil plan and that you’ve figured it out, Trump is not an evil genius, he’s just evil. They don’t have a strategy of cleverly trying to distract us from specific things, they only have a strategy of constantly throwing shit at us so it’s hard to deal with anything.
NotMax
Meh.
James E Powell
@Mandalay:
First, BJ is not “the media” or any part of “the media” so please, stop. Second, the press/media always go ape-shit over snippets of polling data. It is a problem but it is not THE problem. Third, hope you can relax and get some sleep. Mandalay’s Monday is hours away.
Redshift
@Kay: Or as Maddow put it so well a year or so ago, cover the Trump Administration like a silent movie – pay no attention to what they say, only to what they do.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Mandalay:
Well, I guess we’re all doomed then, and Trump will get another four years, right?
James E Powell
@SFAW:
Thanks for the link. I love toys! If that poll is an accurate measure of where voters are at, we have our work cut out for us. Older white males with no college turn out to be almost the whole problem. I think it’s been that way for quite a while now. I do hope the Democratic presidential candidates don’t waste time trying to get their votes. As long as their favorite president in American history is on the ballot, they ain’t goin’ nowhere.
Kay
@Redshift:
DeVos wants to cut tons of public education funding. I was pleased they noticed Special Olympics because without it no one would have paid any attention at all. Remember when they all went crazy over Meals on Wheels? It’s one of those. They could knock 20 million people off Medicaid and not a word, but harm a hair on the head of Meals on Wheels and it’s a national emergency. It’s not a rational priority or focus but it’s useful.
Kay
@Adam L Silverman:
My youngest is (now) a Lefty and he sends me unflattering things about Klobachur to put me off her, but I wasn’t ON her until I started to think about it and then I thought “well, is mean bad given how horrible they are?” No. It is not.
It also appeals to me because it’s so funny given the whole “likeability” thing female candidates get. Just fuck that. Yeah, she’s mean. So what?
Amir Khalid
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
The pictures are nice. They convey no actual information about Beto’s level of support, mind you, but they are nice.
SFAW
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
Please endeavor to become less of a smug/scoldy/”you’re-an-Eeyore!!” asshole before you get too much older.
Mandalay was calling bullshit on Yglesias’s “analysis,” not saying WASF.
Jay
@Kay:
She’s not mean, she’s assertive and demanding.
Mean is calling people names or dismissing them.
SFAW
@Amir Khalid:
Sell the sizzle, not the steak?
SFAW
@Jay:
You wouldn’t happen to be a press secretary, or in marketing communications, would you?
SFAW
@James E Powell:
It was a little distressing to see that “Independents” in that demo supported Shitgibbon fairly strongly.
Kay
WikiLeaks
Verified account
This made me laugh out loud. We have to find them fucking hobbies. Like that’s my job!
NotMax
OT.
Hoist the conspiracy flags.
One of Russia’s richest women killed in German plane crash
Uncle Cosmo
@Adam L Silverman: Too bad there aren’t enough officers loyal to Ataturk’s secular Turkish state left in the Army to drag that Allahbothering sonofabitch out of his office & string him up.
Kay
@Jay:
I’m okay with mean. Mean may be necessary. What a relief, too. She can just be “fuck off, here’s the infrastructure offer, take it or leave it”. Trump’s scared of Pelosi and she’s a person who uses the word “tinkle”. Wait until he meets Amy. She’ll take his head off.
(((CassandraLeo)))
@Kay: Website that contributed to Individual-1’s “victory” casts about for any other possible factor to blame. They, FTFNYT, and Comey should form a club.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@SFAW:
I’m sorry, I’m just freaked out that “Trumpism” is going to become the norm. A lot of innocent people are getting hurt and it feels like the world is going to fall apart any day now. I just want Trump and all of his enablers to go the hell away
Lalophobia
@Kay: I think what matters is who she’s mean too. I mean…isn’t Kobachur not exactly one to go all fire and brimstone against the folks across the aisle or have I got the wrong impression of her?
Jay
@SFAW: @Kay:
I got woke to mysogeny and they different verbage use to “describe” the actions and conduct of women, compared to men, a long time ago.
There’s a big difference between tough, ( which Insane Clown POSus thinks he is) and mean, ( which Insane Clown POSus is).
One is a strength, the other a weakness and crippling vulnerability.
Kay
@(((CassandraLeo))):
I’ve been reading the various anti-Clinton/pro-Trump factions in the Wikileaks-adjacent category of the internet. There’s a lot of infighting. It’s delightful to watch. And now to have the Wizard of Oz speak – Wikileaks itself- and with such a bizarre theory!
Maybe it’s just Julian Assange behind the curtain. Men “stripped”of romance by greedy, materialistic females is in his wheelhouse, I think.
We’re stuck with these assholes. We may as well enjoy the parts we can.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Sort of reminds of how angry the Washington press was that the Starr report on Clinton wasn’t considered a slam dunk for Impeachment by the public.
Jay
@Kay:
Wikileaks is making common cause with the PUA’s, MGTOW’s and Incels, now that White Nationalism’s been banned by The Book of Faces.
aliasofwestgate
Heya, everyone. I’m kinda hesitant about asking for some help. Because my Mom has been in and out of the hospital since November, and at the moment she’s in a rehab facility until she’s ready to come home. I’m working towards getting some new equipment for the house, which even with Medicare and her supplemental insurance is going to be costly. Also well beyond both of our means. I have a ko-fi, which is similar to a Patreon.
Also, i would love it if Dolt 45’s contingent would abandon him. Sooo much less stress on my family would be nice. Especially considering Mom is an immigrant. Which is also part of why a bunch of the charities i applied to said ‘nope’, even if she’s legal the ones we could apply to wouldn’t allow it for even a Permanent Resident. But that’s a rant for another day. Mostly i just want Mom home again, and so does our dog, a goofy minpin/JRT mix called Lady.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Jay:
Really? Zuckerbot is finally doing something right for once? When did I miss this?
Kay
@Lalophobia:
I don’t think she has to go all fire and brimstone across the aisle. Trump doesn’t run on policy. Let’s not kid ourselves. This is not going to be an election about Donald Trump’s infrastructure plan vs Klobachurs plan.
He attacks people, personally. She might be good at fielding that and hitting him back. Think small. Small, petty and personal. She can broaden it out after she beats him, and she will. Minnesotans are “good government” people.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Kay: Is Wiki leaks claiming there are that many child molesters in this country like Assage?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: The EU been passing laws right and left and the intertubes be a-howling
Kay
@Jay:
This is anecdotal but there’s a correlation between “male Trump supporter” and “sputtering mad over paying child support” in this county, anyway. Only The Best People.
I saw one of his low quality prospective hires skipped on a child support order and I thought “there it is!”
Jay
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
Two days ago, but of course, it’s full of holes that big enough to drive a blitzkrieg through,
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.wired.com/story/facebook-ban-white-nationalism-separatism-hate-speech/amp
SFAW
@Kay:
One can only hope.
A couple of months ago (I think), I commented here that I had wished Hillary had responded appropriately when Fuckhead was stalking her on the debate stage. I think my “responded appropriately” was along the lines of Hillary turning to him and saying “Back the fuck off, asshole, or I’ll beat you so hard you’ll be crying for yer momma!” [Or some similar testosterone-fueled throwdown.] *
Hillary would never do anything like that, of course, but part of me hopes that Klobuchar would.
*Which makes me think of the line from Diner: “I’ll hit you so hard, I’ll kill your whole family.”
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Kay: Trump had it easy in 2016, he just had to make Hillary defend everything Bill Clinton and Obama did. Now that Trump ss president harping on Warren(assuming she is the nominee) record’s just going to make Warren look like the Shadow President and Trump a wimp.
SFAW
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
I don’t really disagree with any of that. But it’s probably better to state that, than to portray Mandalay’s comment as an Eeyore-ism.
Jay
@aliasofwestgate:
E-mail a front pager with info on where you are and what you need in detail and why, a bleg,
That way the jackaltariate brain trust and aid organization can go to work on your behalf.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@SFAW:
I suppose I just didn’t like what Mandalay was saying (Trump is becoming more popular, slowly) and I reacted poorly, admittedly. I just want this nightmare to end.
NotMax
@Enhanced Voting Techniques
One of the main reasons became a loyal user of Ixquick (now StartPage) as a search engine, after the late and still lamented Scroogle’s demise, is because it is based in the EU.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Yeah, so many people on my Tumblr dashboard are complaining about the evil EU.
@Jay:
Oh, good one!
Suzanne
@Kay:
Not just your county.
Not to mention, the courts are biased against men, as my coworker would tell you.
SFAW
@NotMax:
AltaVista, baby!!!
[See if you can guess who one of my former employers was.]
(((CassandraLeo)))
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: …wait, Tumblr still exists? I assumed it would take a week, tops, after they banned porn for the entire site to collapse into a black hole.
@Kay: If they’re going to fight each other, I agree; let’s get out of their way.
West of the Rockies
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
We’re all a bit freaked out by Trumpism. Trumpism has made us face a scary-ass reality: a certain percentage of our fellow citizens are racist, misogynistic, science-denying troglodytes. Hooray for toxic masculinity in all its shapes, sizes, and colors!//
NotMax
@SFAW
Dogpile!
;)
Suzanne
@Kay:
What’s scarier is that they do not want you to find them hobbies. They want you to find them sex partners.
Social Darwinists don’t seem to realize that they are being naturally selected out of passing on their genes due to their terrible personalities.
Jay
@SFAW:
Tip for all female Democratic Party debaters,
Every guy on earth loves, loves, loves a good nutsack shot,
When it’s not him,
And when it’s deserved.
feebog
@Kay:
I’m not ok with mean. A Boss who abuses her staff is not the kind of person I am looking for in a President. Harris and Warren are both hardened politicians who can take it and dish it out. At the same time they come across as approachable and warm people. I would prefer a female candidate, but we can do better than Klobachar.
SFAW
@Jay:
I was about to say “My research indicates otherwise,” but then realized I have done no such research, thank FSM.
Jay
@SFAW:
It’s a staple of physical comedy and the yute’s these days are putting live shots up on You Tube.
Peale
@Kay: I beginning to just get overwhelmed with trying to pick someone at this point. This is going to be a mobilizing election so I’ll probably back the candidate who has won before by effectively mobilizing groups even when he or she didn’t need them to win. For Klobauer, I’d like to know if while running for Senate she did anything to improve the turnout of African Americans, Somalis and Hmong. If she didn’t do much, I’ll move on. It’s kind of a superficial standard and could lead to adverse results. I guess I could see myself ending up supporting Tulsi Gabbard if she was seen going door to door in Florida registering voters from a list of newly enfranchised felons.
Aleta
@Kay: fear-based war on that feminist lawyer who turned candidate started back in … when, like 1993 ? Or was it when birth control and abortion rights and equal opportunity started making higher up jobs accessible.
“stripped of romance and children” while forced into childcare …
Mike J
Argh, the worst day on the internet has started.
NotMax
@Jay
Obligatory.
:)
Jay
@feebog:
So far, after months, nobody who has claimed “abuse” has come forward to put their names to the allegations.
West of the Rockies
I just encountered a GIF of Ron Weasley lifting a Shrieking Mandrake from its pot: damn thing looks exactly like a nekkid, dirty baby Trump. I’d include it here, but my link-fu is weak.
Jay
@Mike J:
Blech to you too, it’s still sunday here, so I’m bending over backwards here,…..
rikyrah
@Mandalay:
The thing is…as maddening as it is…we don’t have a national poll. We have 50 state polls. Last Gallup had him.
States where his approval rating is above 50%= 102 Electoral College votes
States where his disapproval rating is above 50%=202 Electoral College votes
The Democrat has to find 68 to get to 270.
Dolt 45 has to find 168.
Once again, for the bleachers …
The number of regular Democratic Party voters denied the franchise due to Voter Suppression in those questionable states, was 2-3 times the size of Dolt45’s “margin of victory” in those states. And all three flipped hard in 2018.
SFAW
@Jay:
Then I better head over to YouTube and tell all them yutes to get offa my lawn.
Back in MY DAY, we NEVER would have used kicking some guy in the nuts as a way to get cheap laffs.
And have I told you how I had to walk to school, 20 miles each way, uphill in BOTH directions, in blinding snow in June? Well, sonny, pull up a …..
*sound of snoring*
oldgold
Yesterday I attended a forum featuring both Warren and Klobuchar. They were both impressive.
Warren came across as whip smart and full of energy, but a bit distant in a professorial way.
Klobuchar exuded a reassuring mixture of calmness and strength that was very well received by the crowd of approximately 800 midwesterners.
plato
It’s official.
Jay
@SFAW:
So you were around before Chaplin or the Trois Stooges?
Wow, you are old,…..
So old.
Jay
@rikyrah:
Yup,
???????
SFAW
@Jay:
Well, I am old. But not as old as Chaplin, or Curly, or Groucho. But, old.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Amir Khalid: I posted the latest poll, just yesterday. (link).
He leads among first time candidates. Not bad for someone who’s only been in for 2 weeks.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: To paraphrase John Lennon….
We’ll see how he does once there are competing plans and on the debate stage.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Elizabeth Warren making hay in Iowa (photo)
Amy Klobuchar packing them in Drump country (link)
aliasofwestgate
@Jay: Thanks. I’ll have to figure out what to say for it. It was hard enough to ask as it was just in the comments.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@?BillinGlendaleCA: To quote Toni Tennille, “love will keep us together” (photo)
?BillinGlendaleCA
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Heh, Love Stinks.
(((CassandraLeo)))
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: How odd. I have it on good authority that love will keep us apart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuuObGsB0No
Jay
@aliasofwestgate:
Asking is the hard part,
Sometimes we all need help.
This is a good place for help.
Think about what you need for help, there are people here who can help.
Breathe deep, breathe easy,
Kay?
Repatriated
@(((CassandraLeo))):
That’s the price of love. Can you feel it?
https://youtu.be/CXzs47qy2Pk
piratedan
@Repatriated: i dunno, in this day and age, I kind of feel like this one is more appropriate….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qgFGqJz9yc
Repatriated
@piratedan: Seems to be starting a reprise of last week’s ’80s music thread :)
How about some ’90s then?
Digital Love Thing (Happyhead)
https://youtu.be/WNQG8qCdZC8
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Repatriated: “Love is a battlefield” ~ pat benatar
trnc
@Kay:
I’m very interested in seeing this. At this point, the only direct interaction I’ve seen between Klobuchar and a republican is when she politely accepted a fake apology from Kavanaugh after the alcoholic called her an alcoholic. I haven’t tried to find old candidate debates between her and republican candidates. Was she more on fire for those?
Amir Khalid
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
Now, if onlr Beto were running exclusively against other first-time candidates…
Matt McIrvin
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
With young white men.
Looking at the overall trends, IIRC, it’s more complicated: he gained a huge amount of approval during the 2016 lame-duck period by winning the Presidency (you can only see that by looking at personal-approval numbers, which are catalogued on RCP, used to be on HuffPo before they fired everybody), bringing him up to around 45% approval and, very briefly, net positive approval. That is, Trump did have a “honeymoon”, it was just a really pathetic one. Then he lost a few points of it through 2017, and gained some of it back after the tax bill passed, but that rise plateaued about 11 months ago. Whenever it goes up it seems to be, for the most part, already Republican-leaning people who probably voted for him anyway deciding he’s OK, which says to me that the approval ceiling is not going to be high.
The thing I find sobering is that he had shockingly low personal approval in 2016 when he won. He seriously had about a 35-60 approve-disapprove, and still got elected President. If you were to just naively extrapolate from that by reasoning that, say, Trump just gets a magic 13-point bonus, you’d conclude that if the election were held today he’d beat any Democrat in a landslide. My God, he’s just underwater 42-53? Add the magic Trump bonus and he wins 55-40! That’s only a few points under Reagan ’84!
But of course that’s not how it works. A lot of that was, of course, that for whatever combination of reasons, Hillary Clinton had become about as personally unpopular. So the big question is whether they’ll be able to do the same thing to anyone we nominate or if we can head it off somehow.
Matt McIrvin
…anyway. Mandalay’s right that there’s no visible drop in Trump’s popularity; the big story is that his numbers are very, very flat. They’re flat at a medium-bad level, and it’s actually worse if you look at active *disapproval*; he’s the first modern President to have above 50% job disapproval for most of his first two years. But they’re not so bad that you can look at them and predict certain doom for him.
You know who else had weirdly flat popularity numbers? Obama. But they were at a somewhat higher level. It may be that modern political polarization just means that these numbers don’t vary much under most situations.
Shalimar
@Peale: Any standard that possibly leads you to support Tulsi Gabbard needs reevaluating. The last thing we need right now is someone with experience as a cult leader.
Matt McIrvin
@Peale: You can drive yourself insane trying to game out the general election before the primary (heck, look at the wall of text I wrote just a couple of comments above that basically concluded we don’t know anything). I have my own ideas about electability, but I also know that I don’t know jack; Dukakis and Kerry were both floated as “electability” candidates.
At the moment I’m leaning strongly toward Warren just because I like Warren the most as a potential President. I suspect she might not be that good at running for President, but if she isn’t, we’ll likely know that during the primary period and I’ll have to vote for somebody else in November 2020. And I could be wrong. My skills as an amateur political strategist are not great.