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You are here: Home / Past Elections / 2020 Elections / Open Thread: Motivation

Open Thread: Motivation

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  2. 2.

    Baud

    Yes, 2020 Dems so far are raising less money than the 2008 Dems, per the Q1 numbers.

    I can also see the sheer number of candidates scaring off some donors who might want to wait until the herd is thinned a bit.

  4. 4.

    Baud

    Sen. Gillibrand raises $3 million in first quarter

    Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) raised $3 million in the first quarter of the year, according to her campaign, a figure that lags behind the hauls brought in by her competitors for the 2020 presidential nomination.

    Gillibrand has more than $10 million cash on hand, ranking her fourth in the Democratic field, her campaign’s communications director, Meredith Kelly, said Sunday. That number includes a $9.6 million transfer from Gillibrand’s Senate campaign account.

    In a memo to supporters on Sunday obtained by The Washington Post, Gillibrand’s campaign said there was “no question” that its fundraising in the first quarter “was adversely impacted by certain establishment donors — and many online — who continue to punish Kirsten for standing up for her values and for women.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sen-gillibrand-raises-3-million-in-first-quarter/2019/04/14/0665dc9a-5ed8-11e9-bfad-36a7eb36cb60_story.html

  5. 5.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud: I can also see the sheer number of candidates scaring off some donors who might want to wait until the herd is thinned a bit.

    /raises hand/
    I think the O’Bros “Unify or Die” fund is dedicated to the winner of the primary

  6. 6.

    Major Major Major Major

    @Baud:

    In a memo to supporters on Sunday obtained by The Washington Post, Gillibrand’s campaign said there was “no question” that its fundraising in the first quarter “was adversely impacted by certain establishment donors — and many online — who continue to punish Kirsten for standing up for her values and for women.”

    That’s not a great look.

  11. 11.

    mrmoshpotato

    Ad at the top is a Dump poll asking if I trust mainstream media.

    *uppercuts algorithm in the nuts*

    And now on to reading this post.

  12. 12.

    WaterGirl

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: You are correct, sir. Whoever wins the primary gets all the Unify or Die fund. Smart idea, if you ask me.

    edit: They make the excellent point that Trump has to spend NOTHING on the primary, so all those millions of dollars he has already will still be in the bank once we have the Democratic candidate.

    And that Democratic candidate is likely to be start at around zero dollars in the bank for the general.

  14. 14.

    WaterGirl

    I think all the comparisons like “this candidate raised 7 million and that candidate only raised 5 million” are silly.

    In my opinion, anyone who can raise millions of dollars – not from big donors — should be taken seriously, whether it’s 4 million or 9 million.

  18. 18.

    NotMax

    Drinking game for the coming week: any time see or hear the word redaction. Ought to be a billion sheets to the wind by this time next weekend.

    ;)

  20. 20.

    PST

    Wow, is it ever snowing here in Chicago. I figured the northern suburbs might get some, but it is almost a blizzard here in the west loop area. Let’s call it a seasonally adjusted blizzard.

  23. 23.

    Zippity

    Julian Castro’s event I was going to today was cancelled because of snow in Chicago delaying his flight. The campaign sent out an email about the cancellation, but I didn’t think to look before I left the house.

    At this point, I’m donating small amounts to multiple candidates to make sure they make the debate stage.

    This is the first presidential campaign for me after becoming a precinct committee person last year. I’m in Illinois, but my County borders Iowa. I’m very surprised that no campaigns have reached out to the local committee people.

  24. 24.

    trollhattan

    @PST:
    That’s just so weird.

    Getting ready to leave and finally, no inner conversation on “Which jacket should I take?”

    Shirtsleeve and shorts season is here!

  25. 25.

    Ohio Mom

    This is more math than I feel like doing but what if you add all of the donations made to all of the Democratic hopefuls together, how much does that come to?

    I’ve bemoaned this before, there is nothing that can be done right now, but I continue to believe we have too many candidates. It spreads attention and funding too thin.

  27. 27.

    trollhattan

    @Ohio Mom:
    And they’re still entering! IMHO we need to put the brakes on and work with the vast wealth of talent already in. Can the rest of y’all run for senate or something?

  29. 29.

    satby

    @trollhattan:

    Can the rest of y’all run for senate or something?

    I agree with this! We potentially lose one Senator, maybe two when the nominations for Pres. and VP are in. We need a Senate majority and a House majority, because just having a Democratic President isn’t going to be able to undo all the Trumpian damage.

  31. 31.

    NotMax

    @Ohio Mom

    Doesn’t faze me a bit. Just because someone(s) entered extra early isn’t enough of a reason to deter others who have concrete proposals/policies to offer, or even excite otherwise apathetic voters. By Labor Day the culling will be well underway; by the first primaries we’ll be down to a handful who have successfully demonstrated the political savvy to run the gantlet.

  33. 33.

    guachi

    I can see many people holding back large donations. Give enough to keep your favored candidate(s) competitive then give more if they stay in.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dem 2020 nominee raises twice whatever the previous record is once the nominee becomes apparent

  39. 39.

    B.B.A.

    @Baud: Gillibrand’s hard-line feminist stance was appealing to those of us who were tired of a party that only polices sexual misconduct when it’s convenient (see: Clinton, Bill)… but then it turned out when it came to her own staff, she’s just as hypocritical as everyone else. That neutralized her only advantage over the rest of the pack, and in particular there’s no concrete reason to support her over Harris.

  41. 41.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    unify or die fund

    Donald trump had $129 million in cash at the end of 2018. He raised $6 million in TX in one day last week. They’re already campaigning on facebook, I gather

  42. 42.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud: In a memo to supporters on Sunday obtained by The Washington Post, Gillibrand’s campaign said there was “no question” that its fundraising in the first quarter “was adversely impacted by certain establishment donors — and many online — who continue to punish Kirsten for standing up for her values and for women.”

    Jeff Weaver works for Gillibrand this cycle?

  43. 43.

    John Revolta

    @MattF:

    He reportedly faced an additional charge of resisting an officer without violence and was released on a $2,000 bond.

    So much for yer “Civil disobedience”, libs!

    P.S. Lovely assortment of Florida Man stories down the page there.
    Cripes.

  46. 46.

    zhena gogolia

    @WaterGirl:

    Did you watch Pete? He’s got that je ne sais quoi. And no, I don’t mean he’s a white male. There are plenty of other white males running who do not have it.

  48. 48.

    WaterGirl

    @satby: I’m guessing that it was the mayor from Texas? He was seriously good and very effective, I thought.

  49. 49.

    WaterGirl

    @zhena gogolia: Yep, just finished watching. He certainly does have that, and I don’t think it’s related to gender or race. Some people have it, most of us don’t, not to that extent.

  50. 50.

    satby

    @zhena gogolia: I’m telling ya! I doubt he’ll go past the first few primaries because he is young, but he gets it and I hope he’s on the national stage a long time. And unlike the execrable Wilmer, Pete is a bone deep Democrat and will be a huge support to whoever the nominees are.

  52. 52.

    chris

    Hadn’t thought of the crowded field this way.

    I think the small primary field really hurt Hillary in the short and long term. I'd wager if Warren and Biden both announced in 2015 and competed in the primaries, Hillary would have still come out on top but with fewer battle scars.— Bernie Dennler (@TheOtherBernie) 14 April 2019

  53. 53.

    JPL

    @satby: It was a really good speech. My friend went to high school there, before moving to Michigan. She’s a big fan of his.

  54. 54.

    wmd

    Warren has 135k donors, average $44 for what it’s worth. I’ve given above the mean to her campaign.

    Sanders can pay for a lot of rallies already. Let’s hope he brings local politicians along for the ride. Otherwise his revolution is not just dead but putrifying.

    Actblue is giving us some financial clout. We still do have bundlers – Balloon Juice is a fair sized one. I did it on a small scale in 2016 and 2018 elections trying to get Bernie supporters donating to down ticket races – personally raised over $3500 with bernforCandidateX pages and minor social media mentions ($3000 to Tammy Duckworth from one recurring donation).

    I’m not clear on how I’m going to market 2020 fundraising. I’m certainly going to be doing it and it will almost universally go to good democratic candidates.

  55. 55.

    satby

    @WaterGirl: Pete does what Molly Ivins always talked about, relating the policy decisions made by politicians to how it directly affects your life. How the balance of one vote on the Supreme Court gave him the right to marry, for example.
    But, just under 8k watched the livestream. Much as I like him, he’s unlikely to go far in the primaries. He’s adding depth to the conversation and doing some great reach out that other candidates can build on though.

  57. 57.

    (((CassandraLeo)))

    @germy: I think there’s a reasonable case to be made for requiring every candidate for public office, from president down to dog catcher, to release at least five years of tax returns. (I’m open to the same idea for judges, but haven’t decided for sure on that one yet.) I think it would be difficult to get that passed in Congress, since it would require them to enact a law reducing their insulation from public scrutiny, but I think it would make it much easier to identify potential conflicts of interest if we had a clearer picture of what they stand to gain. As it stands, there’s a lot we don’t know about many of the people representing us. Tax returns won’t demystify all of that, but they’ll certainly remove one potential source of surprises.

    (I’m also not sure on the potential legal issues with a potential federal law affecting candidates for state and local office, so this might be a reform that would need to be passed piecemeal.)

  58. 58.

    Just One More Canuck

    Was Kamala trolling BS by releasing her tax returns the day before him? if so, I like it

  61. 61.

    FlipYrWhig

    @Major Major Major Major: Sanders is doing that thing that Chapo and Chapo-envying and Chapo-adjacent bros do where you blame various bad things on the nefarious Neera Tanden. He’s such a dick and he surrounds himself with even bigger dicks. If it hadn’t been an actual politician’s name before we could call it the Dick Army.

  62. 62.

    WaterGirl

    @satby: I don’t think we can know that yet — not until the debates in June. As long as you make it to the debate stage for the first debate, I think you have a real shot. More voters than just people like us will be tuning in.

    (I know there will be two initial debates because of numbers, but you know what I mean by first debate.)

  63. 63.

    MisterForkbeard

    @John Revolta: I think he’s actually right.

    The small primary field meant that the race became “Hillary” vs. “Not-Hillary”. We were especially unfortunate in our Not-Hillary, as Bernie wasn’t wise enough to direct his people the right way and a lot of his people and movement were more “anti-establishment” (which means – “everyone in office including Democrats are awful”) than “pro-Bernie”, and it fed a LOT of people on the middle who were otherwise sort of shrugging their way through the election.

    If there had been other, more plausible candidates that the guy who couldn’t even describe how he’d perform one of his central planks when confronted or whose plan for dealing with a Republican Senate was “they’ll give in because everyone loves me”, it would have kept the primary and a bunch of voters focused on the shit that mattered rather than turning into a “let’s beat up on Hillary parade”. It may also have shut down the already non-sensical “Hillary rigged the whole thing!” narrative before it started.

  64. 64.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Just One More Canuck: No, but I do think it’s going to be a nice contrast between her and Bernie. Bernie’s the one who claims to be pure and incorruptible and his ardent followers insist on calling her fake and corporatist, so this kind of thing is really a stick in their eye.

    Not sure if they’ll notice, though. They’re awfully invested in their Bernie, Pure As The Driven Snow And Everyone Else Is An Establishment Monster idea.

  66. 66.

    John Revolta

    @MisterForkbeard: I figured out this line of thought, but I think it’s wrong. Clinton was far and away the frontrunner in ’16 and would basically been everybody’s main target. I don’t think it would have changed the primary’s outcome but it would’ve given her more chances to misstep and made the general that much harder.

  67. 67.

    Ohio Mom

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Trump’s campaign needs to raise big amounts because a fair amount gets immediately skimmed off into the Trump Family coffers and isn’t available for normal campaign expenses.

    And that’s *with* us taxpayers being stuck with whatever bills they’re able to finagle in to the government’s accounts payable column.

    @chris: Looking back, I am irritated that hardly anybody ran against Hillary — for the reason you quoted, that it would have helped Hillary in the long run. And it also would have helped Biden and Warren.

    Biden might have finally gotten running out of his system (I know, the timing of Beau’s illness and death interfered). Warren would have honed her campaigning skills and moved the conversation leftwards, potentially drowning out Bernie.

    I didn’t want to believe the cynics who sneered, It’s Hillary’s turn, but I should have.

  70. 70.

    WaterGirl

    The city said all the yard waste bags had to be out on the curb by 6am on Sunday, so I put out the bags at the end of the day on Saturday. It has been raining for more than 12 hours now, and the 10 paper bags are crumpled heaps of mush. They had predicted the rain, but who’s gonna get up at 5am to put yard waste bags out on the street? (Spoiler alert: not me)

    I have no idea how they will pick them up and load them into the city truck; I just hope they don’t leave the mess on the site of the lawn because they are wet. It’s their own damn fault — they should have had an alternate rain date or said what to do if there was rain in the forecast!

  71. 71.

    Gvg

    @WaterGirl: it has occurred to me that Trump has probably diverted a lot of those funds already to his own pocket. He isn’t wise enough to actually save the money for when he needs it. Those rally’s for instance and excuses to pay his own companies. It’s probabaly illegal but he can’t seem to learn that.

  72. 72.

    MomSense

    @John Revolta:

    I don’t agree with the idea that more candidates is helpful. She was running essentially for Obama’s third term. Same for HW in 88. A lot of candidates and a contentious primary are not helpful if you are following a two term president of the same party.

  73. 73.

    geg6

    @zhena gogolia:

    What am I not seeing? I find his holier than thou act on the topics of religion, white working class and midwestern “values” distinctly non-inspiring. I don’t get why everyone seems to be falling all over this guy. I just don’t.

  74. 74.

    Miss Bianca

    @geg6: I’m not exactly down on him, but I must confess that I’m not feeling Buttigieg-mania myself. Satby seems quite taken with him – but she actually knows him. (Sort of, anyway, it seems). I can’t help but think that that would make a difference.

  75. 75.

    J R in WV

    @satby:

    “But, just under 8k watched the [Pete’s] livestream.”

    So, mostly all Balloon-Juice Jackals, then !

  76. 76.

    JR

    Nothing against Mayor Pete, but it’s just that . He has no federal or state-level experience. I would be stunned if he places in a primary.

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