This isn’t going to be a long post. I know Cheryl is working on a longer one/deeper dive that she’ll publish when she’s finished it, but I figured we should put something up. Right now the news I’ve seen out of Venezuela from today make it pretty clear that Juan Guiado’s Operacion Libertad is long on concept and short on execution. I’m not a big fan of Maduro, but you’re not going to overturn an established government that is being supported by both the Venezuelan military and the Russians – including Russian military contractors. Despite how much the President, the Secretary of State, and/or the Assistant to the President-National Security Advisor (APNSA/NSA) cheerlead for you on Twitter. Moreover, they can’t seem to get their stories straight. The President and Bolton have warned Cuba off of providing Maduro support, while Secretary Pompeo is claiming Russia is keeping Maduro in power. It also doesn’t help if the newly freed political prisoner, Leopoldo Lopez, that you’ve brought to the announcement of your people’s revolution to lend legitimacy decides he needs to seek refuge from the Maduro government in the Chilean Embassy in Caracas.
#BREAKING Pompeo says Maduro was ready to leave Venezuela until dissuaded by Russia pic.twitter.com/s5jEWpG3lY
— AFP news agency (@AFP) April 30, 2019
It also doesn’t help if you can’t be bothered to do the minimal staff work required to make your video statement of solidarity and support to Guiado and the Venezuelan people in Spanish. For Deity’s sake, White House Director of Strategic Communication Mercedes Schlapp is a fluent Spanish speaker, even if it’s Cuban Spanish, not Venezuelan Spanish. Ask her to write the damn statement out in transliterated Spanish and then take the 30 minutes to practice getting it right with her. Strategic communication is why she’s on payroll! You know how I know that? It’s in her job title!
To all the patriotic citizens of Venezuela: pic.twitter.com/qlByCPk7Qj
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 30, 2019
It would also be really nice if the administration could coordinate their messaging on this matter. Coordinating those types of things are actually part of Bolton’s job, but like all the rest of his job that doesn’t involve warmongering, he’s neither interested in it nor good at it.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tells CNN's @WolfBlitzer that it's time for Nicolás Maduro to "leave," adding "He has no answers for the Venezuelan people and the United States is determined to assist the Venezuelan people in restoring democracy." https://t.co/19NDtL2h3Y pic.twitter.com/mzUjviHBiK
— The Situation Room (@CNNSitRoom) April 30, 2019
No answers for the Venezuelan people, but the US is determined to assist the Venezuelan people. What does that even mean? That isn’t a strategic communication, that’s a mixed message that says: 1) We’ve got nothing for you, but 2) You all go for it, we’re here for you. Huh?
https://youtu.be/zAvKZAPhOUU?t=3
There’s really no coup here as Guiado’s doesn’t have the resources. Unless he’s able to flip the military and the police, he may have Venezuela’s constitution and law on his side, but that’s all he has. Sixty-nine people were hurt today, which is, fortunately, not a higher number of casualties. Other than that, it doesn’t appear much of anything is really happening. Guiado’s got nothing to work with here. Maduro knows it and, more importantly, Maduro’s patron Putin knows it. The President can tweet orders at the Cubans, Bolton can preen and posture on video or Fox News all he wants, but there’s no victory here for the opposition he’s supporting.
Things could, of course, get worse…
Erik Prince – the founder of the controversial private security firm Blackwater and a prominent supporter of U.S. President Donald Trump – has been pushing a plan to deploy a private army to help topple Venezuela’s socialist president, Nicolas Maduro, four sources with knowledge of the effort told Reuters.
Lital Leshem – the director of investor relations at Prince’s private equity firm, Frontier Resource Group – earlier confirmed Prince’s interest in Venezuela security operations.
“He does have a solution for Venezuela, just as he has a solution for many other places,” she said, declining to elaborate on his proposal.
The two sources with direct knowledge of Prince’s pitch said it calls for starting with intelligence operations and later deploying 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers-for-hire from Colombia and other Latin American nations to conduct combat and stabilization operations.
Prince’s delusions of grandeur are unlikely to go anywhere. Everyone in the region, as well as everywhere else, knows that Prince is a wholly owned subsidiary of the PRC who bankroll his Frontier Services Group. The last thing anyone wants is to have the PRC occupy Venezuela via their proxy Erik Prince.
I think the key takeaways here are:
- Guiado doesn’t have the resources to overthrow Maduro
- Maduro currently has the resources and the backing of Putin
- Putin has a plan
- Erik Prince has a plan
- Erik Prince’s plan is a bad plan
- Erik Prince’s bad plan would put Xi and the PRC in control of Venezuela
- The US doesn’t have a plan
- The US does, however, have the President, the Secretary of State, and the Assistant to the President-National Security Advisor tweeting about Venezuela, which, of course, is what’s really important…
What could possibly go wrong?
Open thread!
Ruckus
I’m going to go with pretty much everything Trump or any of his idiot minions touches.
It’s the safe bet.
Adam L Silverman
@Ruckus: Please see Ann Laurie on the mezzanine level to claim your prize.
MomSense
I was just at the symphony and had my phone off for five hours – and wowza what a news night. I don’t even know where to start.
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
A prize? I do believe that’s the first time in decades. Nearly 7 to be exact.
Adam L Silverman
@Ruckus: It’s a John Cole bobblehead.
Actually we should sell those as a fundraiser.
PeakVT
We should all continue to hold the following two thoughts in our head: 1) Maduro is horrible, and 2) the US should refrain from doing anything about it since there’s no evidence the US is good at interventions.
Sure, some vigorous diplomacy with various Latin American countries encouraging them to explore non-military options would be nice right about now – and possibly even productive – but look at the horde of assholes running this country. That’s not going to happen.
Major Major Major Major
Great bullet point executive summary there.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: Thank you!
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman:
I would give very serious consideration to paying good cash money not to receive one.
Amir Khalid
Spanish uses the same alphabet as English, pretty much. I’m not sure what “transliterated” means in tnis context.
Erik Prince needs to be told to shut up and sit down. Does Trump, or any ranking Trumpista, have the balls/authority to tell him that?
I think the US’s least-bad bet, given its lack of real leverage in Venezuela, is to stand aside and let the situation play out, while making ready to offer any required humanitarian assistance. For obvious reasons I doubt this will be the Trumpenreich’s preferred option. Is there any sense yet of how it will act?
O. Felix Culpa
@Adam L Silverman: I love that idea! Where do I send my check?
NotMax
Did Pompeo (or this underlings) use global replace on dusted off State Department letterhead documents to substitute “Venezuelans” for “Kurds?”
Inquiring minds want to know.
O. Felix Culpa
@Omnes Omnibus: I want one. With pants. Mustard optional.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: What about the second wave of Cole bobbleheads: Tunch, Steve, Lily, Rosie, Thurston, the Willow Tree.
Adam L Silverman
@Amir Khalid: It means just write it out phonetically for proper pronunciation in English, even though you could just write it in Spanish. Because Bolton probably wouldn’t read it if it was in Spanish.
Adam L Silverman
@O. Felix Culpa: Overalls.
O. Felix Culpa
@Adam L Silverman: I’m in, for the whole series.
bemused senior
I am having deja vu all over again. Please reassure me that we aren’t reliving Iran Contra. I watched Ollie North testify to Congress as I was in labor with my second daughter. This alternative timeline we are in is way too muddled.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: I could see going with Rosie, Thurston, and/or the Willow Tree.
Omnes Omnibus
@bemused senior: Let’s start with this: Are you currently preggers?
bemused senior
@Omnes Omnibus: hopefully not. 70 is way too old and they just removed all my lady parts. But given the other improbabilities…
Omnes Omnibus
@bemused senior: Well, that makes less likely that you, at least, are reliving Iran-Contra. I hope that helped.
Adam L Silverman
@bemused senior: We’re not. As far as I know we’re not selling arms to anyone we’re not supposed to be in official terms*. And we’re not doing it by dealing with Iran under the table.
* We are, however, selling weapons to the Saudis, which is legal, but is a really bad idea.
Mike in NC
Trump whisperers are trying to get a US military intervention in Venezuela to steal the oil, but of course he’s a petrified coward. Cue Jarvanka to make the call.
bemused senior
@Adam L Silverman: that we know of.
Cheryl Rofer
Adam and I kicked this one around a bit this afternoon by email. It is a major mess, with Trump, Pompeo, and Bolton playing the parts of Larry, Curley, and Moe, not necessarily in that order, on Twitter.
It looks like there has been some behind the scenes messing around – It seems likely that the US encouraged Guido to make his move. He may have thought that a bold move would bring others along. It didn’t. Bolton was calling some of those others out by name, which seems counterproductive.
The deeper dive that I am working on has to do with the general ineptitude of the Trump administration in foreign affairs. They don’t have an ambassador to Venezuela, and not much of a diplomatic mission to Cuba (against whom Trump was railing), so I guess that Bolton has to talk to them through a video that isn’t even in Spanish.
This all stems from Trump’s belief that only he can handle foreign affairs and that he is the greatest negotiator ever. So there is no need for ambassadors. Everything will be resolved by the force of Trump’s great personality. Pompeo is only to happy to agree with him, but he has to extemporize at times, and Trump says anything, so their messages don’t match. Bolton is in some ways the most interesting, because he is actually capable of running a strategy. But I haven’t figured out quite what it is. Today his tweets had the flavor of 1981 Alexander Haig: “I am in control here.” Which may be an indication of what he hopes for.
Zelma
Very good and very scary analysis. Clearly, the people “running” this government (ours) have no idea what they are doing.
I have very dear friends who are in Caracas so I’m really scared for them. Not because of the violence necessarily but because they can’t get needed medicines and only can afford food because of support from children outside the country.
What also worries me is the potential destabilizing effect that the refugee problem is causing throughout the area. There are now 3.2 million Venezuelan refugees in neighboring countries with more probably coming when this is over. That’s over 10% of Venezuela’s population.
This will not end well, even if Maduro goes. Another victory for Putin.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@O. Felix Culpa: I’m sorry, they’re not available with pants.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Omnes Omnibus: The willow tree’s planted too close to the blog as it is.
Zelma
BTW, gas prices are nearing $3 per galleon here in NJ. I gather they are higher elsewhere. Might this bring home to the American public that incompetence costs?
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@Omnes Omnibus:
Solid plan.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Virtually unrelated: I remember how differently the Marines and the Army handled their dickheads on the ground if I-C. The Marines hung North out to dry, while the Army sent James Steele to Germany to command 2ACR. The 2ACR gig put him in charge of one of the speedbump units in the event that the Soviets sent the 177th Armored Mongolian Horde through Fulda and Hof. My battalion was part of their fire support team. Steele may be one retrograde political thinker, but he was easily in the top five most charismatic people I have ever met. FWIW, McMaster was no slouch in that field either.
Kristine
@O. Felix Culpa: Subaru optional.
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
I’ve been around here long enough that a JC bobble head has lost it’s allure. OK it didn’t really have a lot of allure in the first place and I’ve never really had a fondness for dolls of any kind since I worked on Barbie Doll molds as a young teen.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: The Marines tend to be a lot less forgiving. Also, it didn’t help that Peter Jennings named Ollie North the “American of the Week” on Friday and on Monday morning he was on every newspapers front page above the fold as the scandal broke. And the lead story on every nightly news broadcast that Monday night. I always imagine Jennings spending most of Monday wandering around the news division loudly cursing about why no one could have been bothered to clue him in before he did that spot the previous Friday.
Adam L Silverman
@Ruckus: John Cole Funko Pop?
Steve in the ATL
WTF would anyone believe anything pompeo says?
Another Scott
Well, we know that the US Navy won’t be doing much of anything about Maduro, if the ProPublica story is accurate:
As you’ve noted many times, our military – even though it costs a fortune – is overstretched and under-funded for the missions it’s supposed to do.
It looks like the world has mostly divided up into two blocks – one supporting Maduro and one supporting Guaido (with Western Europe on the fence).
https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/which-countries-support-maduro-guaido
As you say, it’s a mess. But the US shouldn’t (and probably can’t) be deciding what happens next. Venezuela’s neighbors and a functional OAS could probably do some good if there was interest in a political solution…
As usual, it’s the people who are going to continue to suffer, and there are no magic fixes.
553 days to go until we can vote the monsters out…
Cheers,
Scott.
Steve in the ATL
@Omnes Omnibus:
I love that idea! Where do I send my check?
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: I fixed whatever that was you did to your comment. Whatever it was, don’t do it again.
Ruckus
@Zelma:
Last week it was $4.20-4.30/gal here in socal. It’s dropped back to just under $4 now that I filled up.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: I thought I fixed it in my edit. (I didn’t close an anchor tag.).
:-)
‘Night all.
Cheers,
Scott.
NotMax
@Another Scott
But- but- F35! Osprey! Invisible planes! Space Force! //
Ruckus
@Steve in the ATL:
Single digit IQ?
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
That would be better than the real thing.
Omnes Omnibus
@Steve in the ATL: There is a public radio station in Columbus, Ohio that did pleadge week by announce their hourly goal at the top of the hour and as long as it was met they continued with thrir regular programming. If it wasn’t met, they went to pledge week crap. During the ime I lived there, I don’t think they ever missed their goal.
Adam L Silverman
@Ruckus: I’m sensing a little hostility here.
J R in WV
@Another Scott:
The US Navy and in particular the 7th Fleet, is FUBAR !!!
That is all regarding the military.
Trump and his minions can’t do a damn thing right regarding Foreign Affairs. No Diplomats, no Ambassadors, nothing.
That is all regarding International Diplomacy.
AG Barr committed perjury on camera before the Senate committee he appeared before, even though he had to know there was a document showing he was lying at the time. Stupid~!!!~
That is all regarding current events on Capitol Hill ~!!~
Good night all!!
rikyrah
Erik Prince…yeah, that’s WHAT this situation needs????
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
Not hostility, reality.
Adam L Silverman
@Ruckus: Ends in a lity.
Ruckus
@rikyrah:
Eric Prince – always ready to fuck up any and every thing. For a price of course. Eric is the guy that everyone used to say would fuck up a wet dream. Of course he’s a half step above numbnuts and his minions.
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
Still not the same.
LosGatosCA
I don’t think it’s actually a crisis until Trump asks why we can’t use nuclear bombs in Venezuela.
Although that can be explained to Trump very quickly as car owners will not pump radioactive gas into their cars. So the bombing is bad for business. Can’t steal the oil that way.
Then he’ll go with the bring in the water tankers to waterboard the Venezuelans en masse. You know, the way ‘they could have saved Notre Dame if they listened to me.’
Bolton might go for that. You never know.
My bet is that Trump is as good a strategic planner as Doug Feith, so that leaves every bad option open and every smart option unknowable.
Ruckus
@LosGatosCA:
Now that’s the definition of an absolute sure bet.
Peale
@Mike in NC: yep. I think the logic is Trump better than Bush in Iraq because he’ll take the oil! Better than Obama in Libya because he’ll take the oil! That’s not really logical, I know. I mean, if we go and install our hand picked government in Venezuela, I’m pretty certain taking their oil would destabilize that government. But who says logic has to make sense?
cokane
Venezuela may very well turn out to be the genuine crisis that takes place during the Trump administration. They are just completely unequipped to handle it.
NotMax
@LosGatosCA
There were scattered reports earlier this year that Dolt 45 was supplying Citgo with oil from the national strategic reserve in place of oil from Venezuela. Haven’t seen more than passing mention of that, though, and zero reported data as to whether he’s charging them for it.
cokane
@Cheryl Rofer: News reports from Venezuela are saying that Guaido and co. launched their protest/uprising a day early because of credible threats that he and Leopoldo Lopez would be arrested today. I’m not sure you can blame this on US meddling in any way and it’s not good to regularly go to that well, imo. This is a Venezuelan-led resistance after all. They simply do not have the resources alone to combat a government that has literally bought the loyalty of the military, with things like military control of parts of the oil industry.
eemom
The thing about bobbleheads is that the heads, sooner or later, always fall off. Based on my experience as the mother of two kids who occasionally had bobbleheads.
burnspbesq
@Ruckus:
Isn’t it time for the annual spring shortage while the Mobil and Unocal refineries in Torrance switch over to summer formulations?
Ruckus
@burnspbesq:
Sure, that’s as good a reason as any other. That and that we voted for a pretty nice raise in the gas tax to pay to fix the roads.
Aleta
I believe there are a huge number of Cubans already assisting Venezuela’s military and intelligence. My Venezuelan friends were hoping to leave last year. Food unaffordable, no gas, no supplies, no money to take out of the country. We don’t know if they left or not.
Jay
@Aleta:
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/01/26/world/americas/venezuela-cuba-oil.amp.html
Venezuela’s key problems are not much different than much of the world.
– too many Billionaires, too many poor people and not enough Middle Class,
– Dutch Disease,
– Corruption,
– racism,
– zero sum politics,
– Foreign intervention,
Sound familiar?
low-tech cyclist
Erik Prince’ army is here to stay
Erik Prince’ army are on their way
and I would rather be anywhere else
but here today
(With apologies to Elvis Costello, of course)
DaddyJ
Adam, going by the text of the tweet above this, I take Pompeo’s “He has no answers..” as a reference to Maduro, not to himself or Trump.
JustRuss
I can understand why the ministry of propaganda avoids using the word mercenaries, but do the rest of us have to play along?