This Joe Lockhart op-ed was published in the Times (of course) a couple of weeks ago, but I only saw it yesterday as part of Dahlia Lithwick’s excellent piece about impeachment. Here’s Lockhart’s main argument against impeachment:
Allowing Mr. Trump to lead the Republican Party, filled with sycophants and weak-willed leaders, into the next election is the greater prize. Democrats have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to realign American politics along progressive lines, very much like Ronald Reagan did for Republicans in the 1980s.
Trumpism equals Republicanism as long as Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket. And a real shift to progressivism in America will be delivered by a devastating rebuke of the president and his party, a rebuke that will return control of the Senate and state houses across the nation. Politics is always a gamble — and this is the best bet we’ve had in a long time.
I happened to come across this piece right after looking at the Ballotopedia Senate map. Anyone with even a nodding acquaintance with the politics of the current millenium has to look at that map to see that winning back the Senate will be, at best, a nail-biter. We need to flip Arizona, Colorado and Maine – all do-able with the right candidate – if we are just going to have a 50/50 Senate. Then what? Texas? Beto ran away from Big John Cornyn. Georgia? Stacey Abrams, the best candidate in Georgia in a generation, is not going to challenge Perdue. We might flip Iowa, but that’s doubtful. The rest of the states are looking pretty safe to me.
Assuming that the residents of the red states on the Senate map will be disgusted by Trump and Trumpism, and therefore vote for a party that doesn’t even have the strength to pursue impeachment of the most impeachable President in history, is probably the most insular and stupid thing that I’ve heard come out of DC in a long time. While Joe Lockhart was busy collecting a salary in DC and spinning wank tales, Republicans were busy gerrymandering, vote suppressing and propagandizing in those red states. There will not be a Progressive wave until there’s a Democratic state legislature and governor in most of those states, so the vote suppression can be rolled back. Almost everyone who still calls themselves a Republican is at least OK with Trump being in office (at least he isn’t Clinton!) for a variety of reasons that have nothing to do with their moral compass, and a lot to do with whatever lies Fox is dishing out today.
This has gotten too long but in case it isn’t obvious, my take isn’t that Democrats should avoid impeachment, but rather that they should investigate the shit out of this Presidency until it’s bloody obvious that Trump ought to be impeached. Then, throw it at the Senate and let Mitch McConnell decide how he wants to obstruct justice.
Adam Lang
We know where Joe Lockhart found his nom-de-plume:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RFHlJ2voJHY
Adam Lang
Well, we know where Mr. Lockhart got his nom de plume:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RFHlJ2voJHY
prostratedragon
“Balletopedia Senate map”
I’m sure that members of the dance community are as likely as any of us to be obsessed by the national predicament, but this was more than I expected.
kimp
It is hard to investigate when this administration refuses to comply with subpoenas.. I haven’t heard of a solution to that other than impeachment proceedings. The idea of throwing relevant cabinet members in a jail is a pipe dream, as is stopping their pay. All that is left is impeachment proceedings. We must stand for the rule of law.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I’m following the contempt of congress hearing on Kos on a live blog. It’s pretty entertaining.
Zzyzx
You’re forgetting that Alabama is going to most likely flip back so we need 4 to get to 50. This is why I’m not caring that much about the primary. It’s not like anything they propose will happen.
patrick II
Trump, more than any president I have ever seen, and that includes both Bushes, Reagan, Nixon, and all of their crimes, deserves to be impeached and put into jail. His crimes aren’t a byproduct of something he thinks is good for the country (like Reagan thought Irangate would help fight communist enemies in South America) his crimes are the main product and purpose of his presidency. He is there to get rich (he has failed at everything else) and be a dictator like Mussolini and Putin, whom he admires. His crimes are the main and sole purpose of his presidency. He is the dull minded shark of Presidents, always moving forward towards the smell of graft or he will die.
Another Scott
Relatedly, Nancy at WaMo – How Republicans gerrymandered the Senate:
Thinking outside the box is good.
Admitting DC (and probably PR) as States is good.
Splitting up states is probably a bad idea, but other things can be done (somehow requiring the Senate to do its job, getting rid of the filibuster and other non-democratic norms, for instance). These things would have to be carefully thought out, but ultimately the rules won’t save us. We have to elect sensible people to high office or all bets are off.
And that means preventing the GOP from continuing to pick their voters and excluding everyone else. And that means, as you say, having sensible people in state governments (at least as long as there are no sensible national standards).
Cheers,
Scott.
bbleh
… they should investigate the shit out of this Presidency until it’s bloody obvious that Trump ought to be impeached.
This exactly. Move deliberately. Pursue facts relentlessly, hound him and his administration to death, let the media shriek about impeachment, leave Republican Senators to stew in their own juices, and arrive at impeachment only with much reluctant shaking of heads and leaves-us-no-choice rhetoric.
Republicans got out over their skis when they impeached Clinton, and it did nothing but boost his popularity and get Gingrich censured. Trump is in a far weaker position, but I think the lesson holds: don’t get too far ahead of public opinion.
I think Nadler is playing it almost exactly right. The WH has had to fall back, what, two ditches in a few months? Slow and steady. Bleed ’em and weaken ’em.
[Individual 1] mistermix
@prostratedragon: Ha! Fixed. Thanks
Raven
You should see the roadside stands selling trump shit in Panama City!
dww44
I hold out hope that we still might win that Senate seat in Georgia. Teresa Tomlinson, Atlanta area native and former Mayor of Columbus, home of Ft. Benning, has announced she will oppose David Perdue. I hope that Schumer and others get behind and support her candidacy and not write her off because she isn’t Stacy. David Perdue is neither likeable nor sane, imo. She could win. This state is ready to turn purple and it is apparently more likely if that Dem candidate is a woman whatever the color.
Omnes Omnibus
So, who among impeachment skeptics (at the moment, you can count me as one) is opposed to investigating the living fuck out of Trump and his henchmen?
dww44
@Raven: Well, after all, you are in the Redneck Rivera. I’m sure Betty Cracker could educate us in colorful detail on this fact of Florida Politics,.
snoey
Montana just might be doable.
Bozeman and Missoula are fast growing university towns and attracting lots of people who come for the outdoor recreation and value public lands. Daines doesn’t dare appear in public much.
john b
So is North Carolina off the table just because our legislative districts are gerrymandered out the ass? Have people forgotten that we had a Democratic governor win statewide in 2016?
dww44
@bbleh: Your points are well-taken, but I will point out that the equivalency between Trump and Clinton are, imo, overblown and others elsewhere in the lefty blogs continue to point out that Democrats are taking the wrong lessons from the Clinton impeachment. While he remained popular, Democrats then lost the Presidency and the Congress in short order and we’ve been climbing out of that morass for most of the rest of the 19 years that followed.
Democrats can investigate, but they NEED TO/MUST proceed with all speed. They do not need to bide their time. That way provides even more opportunity for Trump and the GOP to control the messaging, a la how Barr controlled/controls the release of the Mueller report. As a lifelong Democrat, I am so tired of being bested by the GOP and its willingness to do anything to retain power. It’s long past time for us to learn to “kick some butt”.
VeniceRiley
@Another Scott: I think Secession would be easier than dividing multiple states. If the empty states continue to crunch their boots on our necks, we should leave and take our economies with us. Or perhaps the threat will be enough. I do agree adding DC and PR are desperately needed.
Eural Joiner
@bbleh:
Although I agree with you in general, the clock is ticking – and running out the clock, installing a more respectable GOP face and then derailing any public support for any consequences for the most treasonous and crime ridden administration in history is exactly their gameplan.
We have been in a non-shooting civil war with the GOP since 2016. For many the blinders are just coming off.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I agree, it’s going to take another shoe to drop before Impeachment will happen.
oldgold
By the year 2040, it is expected that over 50% of the our country’s population will reside in 8 states.
So, 50% of the country will have 16 Senators, while the other 50% will have 84 Senators!
Not good.
TenguPhule
What more does the House want? For him to literally shoot someone on fifth avenue?
TenguPhule
@VeniceRiley:
There are easier ways to start another civil war.
stinger
Beginning impeachment proceedings seems like the best way to help ensure that Democrats do prevail in the next election. Most Americans are not as aware as we jackals of the administration’s crimes. The publicity from impeachment would be educational for many.
Furthermore, I want to be part of a party that works to protect the Constitution, whether it’s a “political gamble” or not.
Dr Ronnie James DO
@Another Scott: Superdakota and Supercarolina are ideas whose times have come.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@dww44:
Counter point. Quackenbush in California
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Quackenbush
A-hole was insurance commissioner and screwed both quake victims and insurance company for his own gain. The Dems in the state assembly symptomatically when threw the case in public hearings, let Quackenbush’s lawyers defend him until it was so clear Quackenbush was guilty as all hell he resigned and left the state.
Kay
It’s funny because they probably don’t know it. Kushner is a pure nepotism hire. He doesn’t know enough to know what would be a “good deal” or “a bad deal” or whatever, and he’s the president’s son in law, so no one will tell him that.
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus:
So what do we need exactly from further investigations that would satisfy the skeptics of impeachment?
I’m hearing a lot of “they need to investigate more” but not a whole lot about what we’re expecting to find that they couldn’t get as part of an impeachment inquiry. Which as a side benefit would also have stronger legal authority when it comes to actually demanding stuff from the Executive branch.
Right now, it looks like Republicans are going to succeed in running out the clock when it comes to investigations because the House is dithering when it comes to enforcing their requests for information.
JoyceH
If Trump is still on the ticket in 2020, it will be for one of two reasons. Either a) he was not impeached, or b) he was impeached but the Senate refused to convict. Personally I think b) is the option most likely to take back the Senate. Put every Senator on record as to whether that whack job belongs in the White House.
bbleh
@dww44: @Eural Joiner:
Right, the issue is timing: not whether, but when and how. Definitely agree that delay for its own sake would be bad, just as I think impeachment immediately for the sake of immediacy would also be bad.
I think it’s possible that the 2020 elections could overtake the impeachment calendar, but that’s fine with me, as long as the wave crests at the right time. The focus should be to get Trump, and as many Republican Senators as possible, out of office in 2020.
As La Femme Pelosi says, the main point is to win.
rikyrah
@Omnes Omnibus:
I want the investigations, and I’ll make up my mind about supporting impeachment.
catclub
in 1984 Reagan won 49 states. I seriously doubt that GOP senators won in the 33 elections that also ran.
Likewise for 1972 and Nixon. The senate is a giant impediment to change.
Anybody who thinks the Constitution is not a suicide pact has not been paying attention.
catclub
Getting the GOP out of California obstruction took about 20 years. I suspect the US version will take at least 40. I will be dead by then.
Maybe I will be wrong.
TenguPhule
@bbleh:
As we’ve seen over the last 3 years, the media doesn’t give a shit about attacking Republicans because Democrats are always the ones at fault unless they can both sides an issue, the Republican Senators have no shame and give no shits about any finger wagging made at them and the House leadership still can’t come to an agreement on impeachment despite all of the shit we’ve had to eat over the last 2 years. Its not encouraging to see Congressional Democrats still trying to play nice and be ineffective.
VeniceRiley
@TenguPhule: Oh, I don’t know. We could part friends, have trade agreements and the like. I imagine they’d love to have their Republican supermajority rule like The Handmaid’s Tale’s Gilead. Meanwhile, we could go on with our lives.
Bill Arnold
@Omnes Omnibus:
Talking-points Republicans.
Some gullible Democrats who are fed (sometimes covertly, sometimes by talking heads on fair-and-balanced both-sides media) these talking points.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Speaking of High on their Own Supply, Fox and Friends were arguing that the billion dollar losses in Trump’s tax return shows he is some kind of master businessman ROFL
catclub
@Dr Ronnie James DO: also Supermaine. VT,NH, Maine, not a bird, not a plane, its…
Supercarolinafragilisticexpialadosis
Chief Oshkosh
@TenguPhule: I agree. It’s as though the Democrats are all supply sergeants. They get things done in terms of legislation, but what we really need for these times is a Grant or Patton. Not necessarily nice, but a General who knows how to win.
Juice Box
@Another Scott: Why are we always talking about splitting states? Why not rolling up the unsuccessful, empty states into larger units? We don’t need two Dakotas. We don’t even need one Dakota, stuff them both into Nebraska. Wyoming can become a county or two in Colorado. Utah and Nevada are both growing, but their time could come. Connecticut and Rhode Island are no longer at odds over religion. I’m not sure that I can make a case for combining Alaska and Hawaii, other than “Outremer”. Don’t get me started on South Carolina.
dww44
@oldgold: This is the 2nd time I’ve seen this prediction quoted. Is there a link to the source, and while I can guess some of them, what are the 8 states where 1/2 the population will reside? 8 doesn’t even cover some of those on the coasts, right?
Bill Arnold
@bbleh:
Remember how Nancy Pelosi lost sleep the night after the Barr Senate testimony? ( Nancy Pelosi says she “lost sleep” after watching Barr testimony)
I’m fairly sure (like 60%) that it was in part because she thought that Barr(/Trump) was trying to mess up (rush) the timing of hearings/impeachment. She didn’t talk about it but she can’t talk about things like that.
Luthe
@Another Scott: There is another way: add more Senators. You aren’t abridging any states suffrage, but you are correcting the imbalance.
Kent
@bbleh:
I tend to agree. The House should keep the ball in their court for as long as McConnell is runnning the Senate. All that forwarding articles of impeachement to the Senate would accomplish is giving the GOP control over the narrative and allow them to run a little show trial that totally exonorates Trump and gives him momentum into 2020.
I would also fear the media narrative should Trump happen to be forced to resign. We’d have Pence fluffed up all to hell as a fresh start for the GOP. A Gentleman’s do-over with the adults finally in charge. All he would have to do is appoint a few mainstream Republicans to important positions in the cabinet and the media would be wetting their pants about a new era or new leaf for the GOP.
As I see it, the House should be doing its job to investigate every thread of illegality within the White House and within the various executive agencies and do the work of the American people to continually uncover the fetid corruption that is the Trump Administration. 2020 is coming at us like light speed. Control the narrative. Then if/when Trump is out of office they can all be prosecuted.
Ultimately it doesn’t matter what we think. What matters is what Pelosi thinks. But I tend to think she knows what she is doing.
PaulWartenberg
Democrats right now have more people running for the Presidency than they do running for the 2020 Senate seats. It’s wrong. It’s the same defeatist mindset that allowed the Republicans to go unchallenged. Better to fight in the arena and bring the voters back with legitimate choices for the Senate as well as the White House (AND keeping up control of the House) than to have the Democrats just win the Presidency in 2020 and then cope with a goddamned bastard in Mitch McConnell controlling the Senate.
Omnes Omnibus
@TenguPhule: IMO too many people will view a jump into impeachment hearings as a “first the sentence then the verdict” situation. Also, there are people who view impeachment as a way of undoing an election. While it is not an exact parallel, there were a lot of people in Wisconsin who opposed what Walker was doing but saw the recall as an undemocratic attempt to erase an election result.
But you don’t really believe anything is going to work in any case. Shouldn’t we just skip to guns in the streets since that’s where we are going to end up on the end?
TenguPhule
@VeniceRiley:
History has taught us that Nazis will honor an agreement only as long as it takes for them to muster up enough force to break it with prejudice.
Leaving non-Republicans with their lives, rights and property goes against everything the GOP believes in.
TenguPhule
@Chief Oshkosh: I’d settle for a Sherman.
JustRuss
@Another Scott: How about combining states? Do we really need two Dakotas?
jl
For what it’s worth, I generally agree with Individual 1. I don;t think it makes much difference what you call the investigations right now, as long as their are into legitimate issues, and pursued vigorously. I think important to build a very solid case if impeachment is necessary. Reality is that, right now, no evidence at all that the GOP votes are there to convict Trump in Senate, even if he randomly executed a guy in Times Square by gunshot at high noon with a several hundred witnesses. The public perception of putting a doomed prosecution on Senate agenda is real issue that has to be addressed, even if I think it is already a slam dunk that Trump should be impeached, convicted and removed from office on several grounds, some having nothing to do with Russia (or more precisely, Putin and his oligarchy) and obstruction.
I’m still supporting Warren, but I disagree with her that we need to start formal impeachment proceedings right now. IANAL, but I think the equivalent of impeachment investigations can proceed under other names.
I do agree with Warren (and that darned ol’ Joe Biden) that Trump and his flunkies are a grave danger to our democracy. But I agree far more with them on emphasizing grave danger of Trump and Trumpism than other candidates (including BS) who say that the currently perceived politics of 2020 election override action on lawlessness of Trump and his gang.
If you look at joshtpm twitter feed, good evidence that the vile Giuliani is globe trotting trying to gin up foreign meddling into 2020 election in favor of Trump. Maybe that heeds to be looked into. I don’t have time to look into the BS as fast as the Trumpsters can produce it, but looks like the story that Biden had a corrupt conflict of interest in dealings with Ukraine and some role his son had there, is bogus. If so, Giuliani and Trumpsters appear to have ‘collaborated’ with current Ukrainian leadership to produce a smear that is tailored for the election. I’ve read that for some reason, Trump fears Biden most as opponent in 2020 (probably because Biden most likely to ridicule Trump and laugh in Trumps face in debates and elsewhere), so manufacturing smears against Biden make sense.
Omnes Omnibus
@rikyrah: That is what I am saying. Personally, I think he committed impeachable offenses by the end of January 2017.
cmorenc
@Dr Ronnie James DO:
You’ll have a hard time finding anyone in North Carolina, democrats included, who has any appetite for merger with South Carolina, which is viewed as a redneck backwater by most folks up here, and politically is deep-red, whereas NC is actually nearly evenly split (though the Rs currently hold legislative dominance through sheer aggressive gerrymandering).
WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Ksmiami
@Another Scott: I think dissolving the Senate is imperative to our future. It’s a relic of slavery anyway
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus:
Again, what more has to be produced to satisfy the impeachment skeptics? Wisconsin may have been stupid enough to shit in their own plate despite being given the opportunity to exchange it for a fresh one, but the rest of us should at least be given the chance to show we’re brighter then they were.
I’m not the one shying away from the remaining legal tools available. Maybe Pelosi and Schumer have really good plan, but from the outside looking in, their refusal to escalate in response to Trump and McConnell’s “fuck you, what are you gonna do about it?” behavior looks like weakness and all the soft votes that swung our way in 2018 because Democrats promised to bring accountability back to government are watching. Don’t be surprised if many of them go “well shit, I voted but these Democrats are just being belittled by the Republicans and they’re just taking it like a chump. Why bother making all that effort to get to the polls because voting really doesn’t change anything.”
West of the Rockies
I thought 2020 was supposed to be a year where Republicans had a bunch of seats in play for the Senate. Obviously, I am misinformed.
I sure hope Beto and Abrahms reconsider.
zhena gogolia
Great speech by Rep. Raskin:
https://twitter.com/HouseJudiciary/status/1126172572264161283
VeniceRiley
@TenguPhule: But, they don’t have enough people for that. The population is with us. We could crush THEM.
catclub
@dww44: I think it is not hard to work out:
California, New York, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Georgia is the present list.
Up&comers are NC.
Michigan, VA, NJ are next. after that it falls off.
but Texas, Cal and FL are all growing rapidly.
joel hanes
I’m not sure either the United States government nor I personally will survive another twenty months of heightening the contradictions.
However, I do note that the Rs have been fixated on extracting vengeance for Nixon, for the failure of the Bork confirmation, for eight years of a black Democratic President, and for the Democratic Party’s temerity in nominating a woman in 2016.
If we impeach Trump, they will spend decades seeking revenge, even if the Senate does not remove him.
I’m not saying that’s a reason not to impeach, but we should be clear-eyed about the likely consequences, and prepare for them.
catclub
@cmorenc: I will note that since NC is the 9th most populous state, it makes no sense. I think he was taking advantage of the NC/SC and ND/SD parallel. my SUPERMaine idea is much more logical.
Kay
They’ll interrogate women who miscarry on whether they caused it, because that’s how you prosecute people. I’ve been reading radical anti-abortion state laws for about the last 5 years and anti-abortion people have always dodged the practical implications of the laws – how they would work- because if they didn’t dodge there would be more public outcry against them.
But now we’re going to see this in action. The laws aren’t limited to people who seek abortions. They apply to every pregnancy.
Citizen Alan
Lockhart’s nonsense is particularly stupid when you consider that Fat Bastard is proud to be a “reality show President.” As anyone who has ever watched Survivor and Big Brother knows, every season, contestants who think they’re clever spend most of the season trying to figure out who is so awful that they’re guaranteed to win if they just take the awful person with them into the finals. And every season, the awful person wins because the voters see right through that strategy and are more disgusted by the cravenness of the first contestant than the awfulness of the second.
TenguPhule
@VeniceRiley:
Unfortunately organization counts for a lot. Sadly, we suck at it when it comes to that kind of resistance.
TenguPhule
@Kay:
To think we’d all live to see the day a Handmaid’s Tale stopped being fiction.
The Moar You Know
@VeniceRiley: Serious question: who gets the nukes? If they keep even one the next step, once their economy does what it will inevitably do once all their free tax revenue from the blue states goes away, is hostage-taking. And we will be the hostages.
Secession is idiotic.
TenguPhule
@joel hanes:
Country isn’t big enough for American Democracy and Republicans. There can be only one.
TenguPhule
@West of the Rockies:
That was before it became clear just how much Republicans have weighted the scales.
Immanentize
@catclub: Only slightly know fact — when Texas was first accepted into the Union in 1845, it was agreed by Congress that it could split into 5 different states at a later date. Mostly this was due to the population requirement and the hope/recognition of future growth and westward expansion.
There is a reasonable debate whether that clause and allowance survived the civil war and Texas’ readmittance into the Union in 1870.
Kent
@Omnes Omnibus:
I personally think Trump has committed more impeachable offenses in 2.5 years than all 43 other presidents combined.
That said, there is a certain strain in the left that says “politics be damned, he must be impeached at all cost no matter the consequences” which I find to be the same type of holier than though mindset that gave us the the Green Party in 2000 and 2016 and the idea that Bush/Gore and Trump/Clinton were moral equivalents.
It’s ALWAYS about the politics, whether we are talking about the present day, or the Cataline Conspiracy in 63 BC Rome. Without politics, all that is left is armed insurrection or civil war.
tobie
@West of the Rockies: Bullock should aim for the Montana Senate seat IMO; Hickenlooper should challenge Gardner in Colorado; and one of the Castro brothers should rise to the challenge and take on Cornyn. I’m not sure why both declined to challenge Cruz,but I suspect it has something to do with not tarnishing their brand.
TenguPhule
@Kent:
Without rules and accountability, you don’t have workable politics.
Kent
@tobie:
I don’t know about Bullock and Kickenlooper, but the Castros have more of a constituency outside of TX than inside. I say this as a 14 year resident of the state. San Antonio is kind of an isolated island of Hispanic history and culture in a sea of GOP rednecks. I’ve never seen San Antonio politicians gain much traction outside of Bexar county. I don’t think either of them would have done remotely as well as Beto against Cruz.
rikyrah
Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) Tweeted:
BREAKING: The @NYSenate PASSES the bill authorizing state authorities to release tax returns – including Trump’s – if requested by House Committees by a margin of 39-21.
Background @CourthouseNews ⬇️ https://t.co/gPCHYHjgWb https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1126176120980766720?s=17
rikyrah
“Heartbeat” laws and other forms of abortion bans are written to subjugate women of color disproportionately, as well. You will see more black women going to prison in Georgia because of this new law, which I’m sure won’t bother Brian Kemp. Fewer votes to suppress, after all.
— Jamil Smith (@JamilSmith) May 8, 2019
rikyrah
Go Tyra ???
Tyra Banks was the first black woman to grace the coveted Sports Illustrated Swimsuit edition in 1997 solo, and now she’s doing it again for the 2019 cover. The black is not cracking! pic.twitter.com/szVDY331Rv
— Michael Blackmon (@blackmon) May 8, 2019
rikyrah
Our democracy is not for sale. We must stop the flood of dark money from drowning out the voices of everyday citizens.
That’s why I just introduced a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United and restore power to the American people. pic.twitter.com/YNYzb35uSf
— Adam Schiff (@RepAdamSchiff) May 8, 2019
rikyrah
BREAKING: The @NYSenate just passed my bill to allow state prosecutors to bring charges, DESPITE a PRESIDENTIAL PARDON. The rule of law matters & the pardon power should not be perverted to undermine it. @IndivisibleTeam @MarchForTruth17 @MillenPolitics @NewYorkStateAG
— Todd Kaminsky (@toddkaminsky) May 8, 2019
bemused
@TenguPhule:
For years I kept yelling at the cable news show hosts when there was an anti-abortion legislator on and no one asked the legislator what the punishment for the woman should be if abortion was illegal. Finally one, Chris Matthews, asked that question and the legislator definitely didn’t want to answer and skirted around it.
Kent
@rikyrah:
I’ve never understood why white southern racists are so eager to prevent black and Hispanic women from getting abortions. Aren’t they the same people who are worried about demographic extinction of the white race? All those black and brown babies that they’re going to have to spend tax dollars educating and then ultimately seeing vote?
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Kent:
Bigotry isn’t often rational. They don’t think that far ahead and believe they will always be in control
bemused
@Kent:
I’ve never understood that either but no one claims white racists are logical other than white racists.
janesays
The way McConnell obstructs justice after the House votes to impeach Trump is by not even bothering to hold a trial in the Senate. There’s nothing in the Constitution which requires him to actually hold a trial once someone is impeached. The only firm statement the Constitution makes about the Senate’s role is that they are the only body who has the legal authority to conduct a trial, not that they are required to do so when an impeachment ruling is referred to them by the House.
So far all the talk about making individual GOP senators have to own their vote to exonerate Trump, it’s never gonna happen, because McConnell will make sure they never have to cast that vote in the first place. And if you don’t believe he’d actually do that, remember that this is the dude who interpreted the Constitution’s “advise and consent” language about the Senate’s role in confirming SCOTUS justices to be a suggestion, not a requirement.
So we impeach him in the House, then the whole thing comes to a crashing halt in the Senate with Trump suffering no meaningful consequences other than a real stern scolding, and a majority of the country says, “Gee, that was a colossal waste of time.” Yeah, that seems like a great plan.
All that said, I do think we should keep impeachment on the table, and I do think there is a potential “right time” to actually formally begin the impeachment process – as soon as 60% of the country wants Democrats to do it. Which is about triple the percentage of the country that wants impeachment right this minute.
dww44
@TenguPhule: I think the time is long past that we stopped giving 2 hoots or a holler about how the GOP will react to any given action by Democrats. They are always going to rant and scream (see the GOP Reps speaking in the judiciary hearing today) and accuse Democrats of being guilty of the same actions they almost always deploy without admitting that that’s what they do. Placating and/or forestalling GOP pushback only makes us look weak. The American public is no longer offended when the GOP engages in rule and norm breaking. It’s normal and expected. They want to see if and when Dems become more effective in pushing back.
tobie
@Kent: Thanks for insights from Texas. It’s not something I would know from Maryland!
Captain C
@TenguPhule: They want more than 49% of the country to be at least somewhat in favor of impeachment. Right now, over half the country thinks he’s a criminal, but apparently is still opposed to impeachment as a remedy. (No, I don’t know why.) The more shit comes out with investigations (and it will come out), the more the needle will move towards impeachment, until the Democratic House leadership is in a position to say, “Well, the people are demanding it. Hearings start Monday.” This may not take too long, but it does require the effort.
Captain C
@Kay:
As long as he lives in luxury and can convince himself he has power and is important, he won’t care either.
artem1s
@Another Scott:
I’d rather see the US move to eliminate all current state designations. That would put a complete US redistricting into play and help the issue of there not being enough House Reps for the current population too. Nationalizing our legal and election structures should be a long term goal, IMO. The current state structure was designed to preserve slavery and laws upholding slavery. If we truly want to engage in any kind of reparations, desegregation and equity in this country, we need to eliminate the first and most powerful symbol of slavery and racism – states rights over constitutional (human) rights. The states don’t deserve constitutional protection any more than a corporation does. states and corporations aren’t people, FU Mitt RMoney.
oh and it would have the added benefit of making the electoral college obsolete.
janesays
What’s the point of an impeachment that will amount to nothing more than a symbolic slap on the wrist if we’re not even going to get the moral victory of at least knowing the public is on our side in the effort?
Bottom line… exactly what do we get out of it? In real, concrete terms? Because if all we’re gonna get is the ability to put it in the record books that he was impeached but not convicted while a majority of the public was opposed to the whole process, I fail to see how that’s in any way a win for us.
We impeach him as soon as impeachment is gonna be a win for us in the court of public opinion. Because that’s the only win we’re ever gonna be able to get out of it, and if we can’t even get that, then it’s completely pointless.
MuckJagger
If that “flipping the Senate” scenario depends on Susan Collins losing, that’s one hell of a reach. She’s still massively popular among Republicans and independents. The war chest fundraiser won’t hurt, but it will be a *very* steep climb.
rikyrah
Trump red line failing despite urgency to keep finances opaque
Rachel Maddow shares details from a new blockbuster report from the New York Times about what Donald Trump’s taxes show about the bleak state of his business affairs from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, and notes that Trump’s best efforts to keep his finances secret are not likely to block every possible avenue of their release.
Kent
@tobie:
San Antonio is a world unto itself. The city has a very old Hispanic upper class or aristocracy that goes back centuries and from which much of the political class is drawn. These are people who trace their roots to old Spanish aristocracy, not recent Mexican immigrants. The Castro’s aren’t quite from this world. I think their grandparents came to San Antonio from Mexico in the 1920s. But they are sort of from it. San Antonio also has a very large upper-class Mexican population. There are large very upscale subdivisions along the northern side of the city that are mostly wealthy Mexican nationals who are moving up to escape the drug violence and put their kids in better schools and such. So you see lots of $70,000 black Cadallic Escalades with drivers and Mexican plates, and maids in uniforms out walking kids in strollers. That sort of thing.
You just don’t ever see state-wide politicians coming out of San Antonio. Mostly they are out of the Dallas/Fort Worth or Houston areas, especially Democrats. Not sure why that is. I think San Antonio is a fairly inward-looking city.
Omnes Omnibus
@janesays: Well, we did have Betty Cracker arguing a week or so ago that if we don’t try to impeach Trump that we can no longer claim that we are a nation of laws.
I would still suggest that there are three ways under the Constitution to remove a president from office. The first is impeachment. The second is the 25th Amendment. Finally, there is the next election.
TenguPhule
@janesays:
The point is that its the last remaining Constitutional check available to the Democratic House. Either we use now or it ceases to ever be viable and we can all admit that the US Constitution is gone and get on with the collapse of the Federal government’s legitimacy.
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus:
25th is fantasy less believable then a civil insurrection.
Betting all our marbles on the next election is gambling against a marked deck.
TenguPhule
@janesays:
At which point McConnell is guilty of obstruction of justice. Lock him up.
TenguPhule
@Captain C: I don’t think we have that kind of time. I think its an ACA moment. The Democrats have to push this through, regardless of popularity because its the right thing to do under our Constitution. And if it fails, then we can finally stop pretending that there are any remaining legal remedies to dealing with the GOP Nazis and plan accordingly.
Kent
@TenguPhule:
Running a show trail in which you control the narrative and then voting to exonorate Trump is not obstruction of justice in any legal sense.
Harbison
The democratic “leadership” has utterly failed to come to grips with the problem.
Set aside, for a moment, the colossal stupidity of Nancy Pelosi offering up the scoop that “Trump is not worth impeaching.”
Democrats “leadership” is operating under the assumption that Trump is going to lose the presidency in 2020. These are the same morons who believed that Clinton was going to coast to victory in 2016.
What they don’t realize, and which Josh Marshall has started to highlight over at TPM, is that 2020 is going to be 2016 on steroids. Giuliani/Trump are not really trying to hide how they are enlisting support of foreign governments to dish dirt on political opponents. The Ukraine gambit is just the one that we sort of know about. You can be damn sure that every oligarchy, dictatorship, craptocracy that can offer intel or unleash herds of bot armies that can be bought off with favors/arms/whatever is going to be contacted over the next 18 months. It is happening now. What Trump/Cambridge Analytica/the Russians did in 2016 is nothing. Imagine what can be accomplished with those efforts plus the power/cover of the presidency.
I have no idea whether US cyber-security is up to the task of fending off the coming activities. I suspect that, unhampered by Trump and his appointees they would be, but operating in the real world, I just don’t know.
US technology companies are not going to do anything that has a real impact. Zuckerberg lied to congress and everyone else about what Fuckfacebook knew and when Fuckfacebook knew it and he doesn’t give a shit as long as the profits keep rolling in.
These are radical dangerous times that call for radical dangerous solutions.
Yes, right now an impeachment vote in the Senate will fail. But, at a minimum, there needs to be ongoing hearings to educate the American public about what Trump did in 2016, how he has broken various laws and committed fraud for decades, and investigation and exposure of what is happening right now. There is some investigation taking place now and perhaps the groundwork is being laid, but it seems to me that the pace is much more relaxed than it should be.
TenguPhule
And here we go. Trump goes full Nixon.
sherparick
@dww44: Well, that new Georgia Abortion law which basically criminalizes miscarriages, should start getting every woman who is not a Christianist handmaiden in Georgia fired up to vote out the Republicans at every level. Ohio is about to do them one better and make birth control a felony and forced reimplantation of an embryo into the uterus in cases of ectopic pregnancy. https://americanpregnancy.org/pregnancy-complications/ectopic-pregnancy/
https://www.statenews.org/post/ohio-legislature-considering-abortion-bill-more-restrictive-heartbeat-bill
germy
TenguPhule
@sherparick:
Sadly not enough for a majority.
Gravenstone
@Dr Ronnie James DO: Yep, start consolidating some of these vast empty states. Four corners area? Nope, just the geographical middle of one giant plot of land with more livestock than human occupants.
germy
https://www.dailydot.com/layer8/jacob-wohl-press-conference/
germy
rikyrah
@TenguPhule:
Uh huh
Uh huh
rikyrah
@sherparick:
WOULD ALSO BAN EFFECTIVE METHODS OF BIRTH CONTROL!
UH HUH
Like we haven’t been telling folks this.
rikyrah
Uh huh
Criminals abound.
More of Rudy’s Lawlessness Abroad
AFP/Getty Images
By Josh Marshall
May 8, 2019 12:22 pm
germy
Omnes Omnibus
@TenguPhule: Remind me how Articles of Impeachment are going to be more effective than voting the fucker out and then prosecuting his orange ass. We know the Senate is vanishingly unlikely to convict.
janesays
@Omnes Omnibus: 25th Amendment is even less likely to succeed than impeachment, since you would need Mike Pence and a majority of the Cabinet to invoke it and then 2/3 of BOTH houses of Congress to uphold it.
We’re stuck with this orange turd until (at least) January 20, 2021, unless he dies before then.
Wapiti
@Chief Oshkosh: … what we really need for these times is a Grant or Patton. Not necessarily nice, but a General who knows how to win.
I think that we are in these times in part because Grant gave Lee a really sweet, sweet deal at Appomatox, where in exchange for surrender, the Federal government would allow the surrendered men and officers to return to their homes and face no further accounting. Which meant that the traitor Lee wasn’t hanged as a traitor, nor were generals like Forrest – so Reconstruction was doomed, and Jim Crow ordained. And that leads directly to the modern racist Republican Party.
janesays
@TenguPhule: Will never, ever happen.
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus:
For starters, the public can get an education in how a federal impeachment process is supposed to work. Second, it rallies and unites the Democratic party. Third, knowing that Senate Republicans will be complicit has a different impact when actually seeing them do it. Make them mark themselves as Kain.
Fourth, it sets the stage for Plan B in the event Trump’s ass doesn’t get thrown out at the election and the nation descends further into lawlessness.
janesays
@Kent: He was responding to my theoretical scenario in which McConnell doesn’t even bother to hold a show trial, since he’s under no Constitutional mandate to hold an impeachment trial at all.
janesays
@TenguPhule: And Plan B is?
TenguPhule
@janesays: The Hard Way.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Omnes Omnibus: If we use the metric of relying on whether an action of the House will pass the Senate before undertaking it, the House will be doing very little of anything. H.R. 1 was never going to pass the Senate, should the House have considered it?
Omnes Omnibus
@janesays: I know the 25th is off the table. I only mentioned it because it is a method of removing a president that is mentioned in the Constitution.
Omnes Omnibus
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I would say that there are times where the political gesture is worth it. Maybe I am scarred by the way that the Walker recall sucked up money and energy that would have been better spent on the election that happened the following year.
I also think that if the investigations shift public opinion such that a Senate vote not to convict would generate outrage, then it may well change my view.
Omnes Omnibus
@Harbison: Again fucknut, who is arguing against investigations?
artem1s
this sounds like an awful excuse to not pursue impeachment. I’m the first one to admit that impeachment without removal by the Senate will probably be the result. And Dolt45 will laugh and mock everyone after the fact if all he gets is a slap on the wrist. But I also think this is the only opportunity our country and rule of law may have of reversing the awful decision to pardon Nixon. Ford clearly sent the message that the GOP is fine with The President being above the law. I’d like the Dems to send the clear message that they are not fine with that being the norm. I don’t think pursuing impeachment will cost the Dems the WH or the Senate. But NOT pursuing justice against the most clearly corrupt WH administration in a century or two, will mean the Dems will lose the ‘both sides do it’ argument forever.
the investigations may not get us all the way there, but if the Dems don’t keep the obvious corruption front and center in the news for the next year, we won’t retake the Senate or the WH, IMO. The GOP needs to be embarrassed and terrified they will lose their office and possibly land in jail if they don’t separate from this jackass and his family. the more the legitimate GOP legislators distance themselves the more the grifters will latch on and the worse he looks and the worse his administration gets at keeping the country going.
Unfortunately, it is going to take a catastrophic failure of some sort to get thru to the average GOP voter. Just like the collapse of 2008. Impeachment or no impeachment, a progressive, competent Democratic candidate is never getting the vote of the WWC – unless there is a financial crisis. appeasing these people is a fantasy. GOP voters and independents will only vote for a non-GOP candidate if they are pissed off enough about their 401K just like with W. so let’s appeal to our real base and show them Dems aren’t afraid of seeking justice even when it means pissing off powerful wealthy voters.
Doug R
M J Hegar, who overperformed by 20 points and ALMOST won is taking on Cornyn in Texas:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIYHz6fPAgo
J R in WV
@Eural Joiner:
We have been in a non-shooting civil war with the GOP since
20161968. FTFY…And, also, not so non-shooting as all that. Bobby Kennedy, Rev. Dr. King, Kent State, Jackson State, etc, etc. Dylan Roof in Charleston SC… Whoever it was yesterday in Colorado. I try not to know those names, and mostly I have forgotten them. The names don’t matter, but the fact that all of them are RWNJs does matter.
dww44
@artem1s: Thanks for your comment. It’s a good one and, IMO, it’s the proper one vis-a-vis impeachment or no impeachment.
J R in WV
@joel hanes:
And why would you think they would feel stronger about their need for vengeance if Trump is impeached than they already feel right now? Because they want Democrats all to be either in re-education camps with poison gas showers or to just be dead already right now.
How is that going to be worse if Trump is impeached?
J R in WV
Furthermore: “Unfortunately, it is going to take a catastrophic failure of some sort to get thru to the average GOP voter.”
I think Trump has already take care of the catastrophic failure. The price of fuel for autos and home heating will skyrocket when the Straits of Hormuz are blocked by Iranian military speedboats armed with short range missiles and mines to drop into the main shipping channel.
And tomato sauces like salsa and ketchup will be unavailable because of the tariffs on Mexican farm produce.
And we can’t fight yet another war in the Middle East because our tanks and aircraft haven’t been maintained properly for years… nor have our 7th fleet warships, nor the troops, airmen and sailors. Another war with a powerful state would be a much worse catastrophe than Iraq or Afganistan. And then Trump would say, “Why don’t we just bomb them into obliteration?” with nukes!
janesays
@TenguPhule: It’s not viable now! It’s a completely toothless process that doesn’t actually change anything! He still gets to be president after he gets impeached, and there’s a good chance he even gets to serve a second term as well!
janesays
@TenguPhule: What does that even mean? The Hard Way? Armed insurrection? Against all the crazy people who have most of the guns? Yeah, that’ll work out real well for us.