After watching the Biden campaign thus far + Philly rally yesterday, my takeaway is that his candidacy is like one of those ‘casual’ nice restaurants that you go to b/c they have a big menu and everyone in your group can find something they’ll eat. (1/2)
— amy walter (@amyewalter) May 19, 2019
No one is unhappy (“look, honey they have grilled cheese for the kids and I can get a salad), but no one walks away thinking that was an amazing meal or experience. It’s not risky, but it’s also not totally satisfying either. (2/2)
— amy walter (@amyewalter) May 19, 2019
Someone in the replies to this tweet came up with the ‘Cheesecake Factory Primary (candidate).’ This is… not a bad analogy, IMO. And not to defend the usual objects of Village Idiot coddling, but there’s a lot of people think of the Cheesecake Factory as a nice restaurant, when they need one. White tablecloths, a fat menu with fru-fru drinks, no salad bar. You can schedule an office party or bridal shower there without worrying that your guests will be either appalled or intimidated.
Thing is, I don’t think this is an ordinary, low-stakes, Cheesecake Factory election. But we have (Murphy the Trickster God willing) a good few months yet during which the other candidates can show off their talents, so here’s to a good clean competition…
You know, all analogy/kidding aside, I know lots of people in Philly burbs who are wildly excited by Biden. They’re very reliable voters. They just aren’t the type who go to political rallies, at least not this early, & they barely know Twitter exists.
— Paul Kane (@pkcapitol) May 19, 2019
Soylent Green
— Peter Shulman (@EngancheWorld) May 19, 2019
This may end up being what the "heighten the contradictions and let Trump win" people didn't appreciate. Most people are too busy for constant political action. Constant struggle doesn't turn them into revolutionaries; they just want some rest.
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) May 21, 2019
NB If you say something nice about Biden on Twitter, you get hit by GOP or Russian bots. He’s the one candidate that scares them.
— Stuart Rojstaczer (@StuartEtc) May 19, 2019
Example:
KCNA says Biden “is self-praising himself as being the most popular presidential candidate. This is enough to make a cat laugh.” Also calls him a “fool of low IQ.” Almost like North Korean state media wants to butter up Trump.https://t.co/0JRulOlkcY
— Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) May 21, 2019
Aleta
6 DEAD CHILDREN IS 6 TOO MANY. @RAICESTEXAS
*
Raoul
Joe seems more like Applebees. Ubiquitous. Boring. Mystifying in how widespread it is.
Splitting Image
The biggest problem with Biden winning the nomination isn’t that Biden would be the candidate in the general, it’s that if he wins, it means that none of the other candidates in the primary were able to step up and take it.
This is also true of Bernie Sanders, except that him winning would mean that none of the other candidates were able to step up and win it, including Biden.
If I were to put money on Biden still being in the lead after Iowa, I would also put money on him losing to whoever the non-Biden vote coalesces around when the field thins out.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Leave it to the Village to talk about restaurants.
Uncle Joe is more like a John Hughes movie. He’s not “Sixteen Candles” or “The Breakfast Club” or “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off” – he’s “Uncle Buck”.
You’re channel surfing and there is nothing on and you come across “Uncle Buck” and you stop and say to yourself, “what the hell, I like the goof ball”.
Aleta
That’s good, the quote from Dave Weigel.
But why didn’t they “appreciate” that
“Most people are too busy for constant political action. Constant struggle doesn’t turn them into revolutionaries; they just want some rest.”
The ones saying that could rely on support from their families or on accumulated wealth? So they could overlook the exhaustion of an unpleasant stressful job that doesn’t allow ‘personal days’ ?
I remember in 2016 Sanders was asked how he would accomplish his proposals, and he said (extreme paraphrase): You, the people, will do it. The people will come out and demand it.
The people who don’t have a job, but have $ to come to gatherings and no one at home needing care + people with very flexible jobs and no one at home needing care + students willing to miss lots of classes and had no jobs and no family? It’s not the 60s and 70s anymore.
Yutsano
@Raoul: So…we should get the salad bar then?
Every time I have heard Uncle Joe speak, he sounds tired and haggard. I have no idea how he will be able to finish this campaign much less survive the problem. Maybe it’s just me, but he sounds…tired.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Dana Houle has said many times the two worst pundits are Josh Kraushaar and Amy Walter.
I bring this up because even Wilmer supporters admitted Biden had a very good rally in Philly.
BlueDWarrior
I think comparing Joe to a tv show or a band that is a consistently high draw over many years but doesn’t excite the ‘artisinal’ types.
So yeah comparing him to “Big Bang Theory” or Nickelback works at a spiritual level. And it also holds that a lot of people at some point and time liked both things actively.
People really like Joe Biden, and Bernie (or whomever else) is not going to beat him until they start converting Joe voters into thiers.
We got 7 months or so, better get to cracking.
Cacti
@Splitting Image:
I would say, OTOH, that if Biden did hold on to win, it would be because too many people stayed in too long, splitting the not-Biden vote among themselves, a la Trump and the GOP in 2016.
Omnes Omnibus
@BlueDWarrior: Not Nickelback, Bon Jovi.
BlueDWarrior
@Omnes Omnibus: I’ll cede the point…
Doug R
@Omnes Omnibus: Yup Beto is Nickelback.
Aleta
Dawn Landes, “Won’t Back Down” and “I’m In Love With The Night”
Another Scott
I wandered over to the FEC website to see how much money the 2020 Democratic candidates had on-hand as of 3/31.
Why is John Delaney #3 (after Warren), and more importantly, why has he taken out ~ $16.3M in loans for his campaign?!? Is he insane??
Mayor Pete is a miser.
It would be nice to think that Donnie’s nearly $65M spent so far was legitimate, but…. :-/
Of course, Biden isn’t there yet since he got in the race “late”.
TheAtlantic:
I think it will be interesting to see what Biden’s “media strategy” is going to be. I don’t imagine him doing an AMA on Reddit, but is he going to understand the benefits of Obama’s strategy there? Or will he spend his time and money flying around doing meet-and-greets at state party dinners and Old Country Buffets? :-/
I’m far too much of a “lookist”, but Biden looked really, really old in his speech in Delaware. He needs to show some signs of vitality on the campaign trail. Maybe not wind-surfing off Martha’s Vineyard, but something…
We’ll see – it’s still very early.
Cheers,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
@Doug R: Delete your account.
Montanareddog
The Death Valley Red Lobster after the freezer broke down.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@Another Scott: mid life crisis.
He’s worth $100 million and at this rate he’s on track to spend 30% of his net worth for a few thousand votes in IA and NH.
His wife and kids must be thrilled ?
rikyrah
@Aleta:
?????
NotMax
frou-frou
/le pédant insomniaque
@Another Scott
Y’know, no Dem, whomever it may be, is going to walk away with South Carolina’s electoral votes in November ’20, so I tend to glance at any polling from there with a jaundiced eye. With the reshuffling of the primary calendar for 2020, SC is more of an artifact than the wobbly stepping stone it once sometimes was portrayed as being.
Baud
I don’t prefer Biden, but it’s a point in his favor that all the cool kids that hated Hillary really don’t like him.
Chris Johnson
@Baud: That would be for a reason. Many reasons, in fact. These reasons are not at all in his favor.
Hell, at this point Hillary’s Russia hawkishness looks damn appropriate in retrospect. Are we going to think Biden’s campaigning for Republicans is good in retrospect?
Baud
@Chris Johnson:
Not arguing. Like I said, I don’t prefer him. If he had run in 2016, I still would have preferred Hillary. I’m just saying that some of the types of people who don’t want him deserve to have him.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@NotMax: South Carolina is the only state among the early 4 that has majority Black voter base. They’re a pretty important portion of the Democratic Party that needs to be represented early in the process.
satby
@Montanareddog: ???
NotMax
@BillinGlendaleCA
This time around, South Carolina is almost superfluous.
SC primary on Saturday, February 29. Look at what happens three days later, on March 3:
Alabama primary
Arkansas primary
California primary
Colorado primary
Georgia primary
Massachusetts primary
Minnesota primary
North Carolina primary
Oklahoma primary
Tennessee primary
Texas primary
Utah primary
Vermont primary
Virginia primary
Democrats Abroad balloting
daveNYC
@Splitting Image:
That’s making the assumption that there will be a big pool of people who definitely will not want to vote for Biden (anyone but Biden types), and that enough candidates drop out (likely after Super Tuesday) that they can pledge whatever support they have to a single non-Biden candidate. If Biden is doing well, it’s just as likely that one of the other candidates might throw their support to him.
JR
And like the Cheesecake factory, you’d kill for that level of food/representation at a highway stop in the middle of nowhere.
Facebones
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: I think that’s why the Big Bang Theory analogy works. It’s by no means my favorite show, but it’s pleasant enough to kill 30 minutes with when channel surfing.
The people who sneer and say no one THEY know watches it’s not really popular are in a self selecting bubble. Maybe just admit that a lot of people really like Big Bang Biden?
VOR
@Cacti: One problem with the Trump-2016 analogy is that the GOP candidates were afraid to really go after Trump. Heck, the Steele dossier originated as GOP opposition research and nobody used it. The rest of the GOP candidates recognized Trump appealed to the worst xenophobic, misogynist, and racist elements of the overall GOP base. But none of them wanted to offend those reliable Republican votes. I don’t see Biden bringing out the worst in people or other candidates worried they will lose reliable Democratic votes by attacking Uncle Joe.
kindness
Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire matter. They are tiny monoclonal states. Super Tuesday is where the rubber hits the road. I don’t see Bidden or Bernie doing all that well Super Tuesday. The media will spin it in what ever way gets them the clicks. That is our sad reality.
RA
The people who love Biden are the people who would absolutely vote for a woman, just not that woman. They also think that a black woman is exactly what we need, but it is still too soon.
NotMax
@kindness
Iowa + New Hampshire will winnow around the edges. Super Tuesday will run a thresher through the field.
low-tech cyclist
I agree with Wiegel that “heighten the contradictions” isn’t the way to play.
Still, I think of where we’d be if Hillary had won.
1) She’d have been unable to pass jack shit through Congress.
2) The investigations of her would only have ramped up.
3) Mitch would have blocked every last judicial appointment of hers.
4) And probably most of her Cabinet and sub-Cabinet appointments too
5) The GOP would have picked up 5-6 Senate seats in 2018, for a 57-43 or 58-42 majority
(probably wouldn’t have picked up many House seats, but then they already had 240 seats)
6) The media would have been playing up every pseudo-scandal the GOP came up with like it was another Whitewater, Benghazi, or Butter Emails.
7) A Republican would win the Presidency either in 2020 or 2024, and win re-election
8) The window to address global warming before it’s too late would close w/o Dems ever in a position to do anything about it
I’m not terribly optimistic about where we are now, but we’ve at least got a fighting chance.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I am thinking the Trunp-Biden mud fight is going to make the actual Democratic nominee look pristine.
low-tech cyclist
@NotMax:
From 1976 to the present, in both parties, Iowa and NH have narrowed the field down to 2 candidates – and down to just one, if one candidate won both Iowa and NH.
This year could always be different. Patterns always break down eventually. Let’s just say I think it’s premature to expect that this will be the year.
Ksmiami
just my $.02 – as much as I love Harris and Warren I think a lot of people just want a reset to normal and while Cheesecake Factory Joe isnit the most exciting candidate, we are exhausteed snd waving a white flag. After Joe let’s bribg up more younger talent
Matt
Both are happily gobbled up by millions of clueless suburban breeders while actually containing nasty bias towards marginalized groups.
Yeah, the analogy’s pretty good.
JGabriel
@Ksmiami:
After Joe, we’ll get another Republican president. White-flag waving leaders don’t inspire people to vote for their party again. Popular, transformative, presidents are the ones who get their successors elected, like Roosevelt -> Taft, Roosevelt -> Truman, and, god help us, Reagan -> Bush 1.
If we want more than four-eight years with a Democratic president, then we need someone who is either more inspiring or more change-effective – and preferably both – than a white flag.