More info here:
With May in the books, another third of the 2019 U.S. corn crop has yet to be planted, according to the latest USDA crop progress report, out Monday afternoon.
“Today’s update from USDA came in on the lower side of estimates for corn and soybean planting, keeping both crops under the gun,” according to Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. “Only Texas was ahead of normal for corn planting, though growers in the western Corn Belt made better progress.”
Corn progress reached 67% as of June 2, up from 58% a week ago but still far behind 2018’s pace of 96% and the five-year average of 96%. Analysts expected a more robust pace of 71%, although trade guesses ranged between 68% and 76%. Five of the top 18 production states still haven’t reached the halfway mark, including Illinois (45%), Indiana (31%), Michigan (42%), North Dakota (33%) and South Dakota (44%).
This strikes me as a really big deal, and while I am one to freak out about things like this, I should note that I am not seeing people who know what they are talking about lose their shit, so maybe I shouldn’t. My concerns are beyond a potential corn shortage, how many farmers will go under because they can’t plant alternate crops like soybeans? Cheeto Benito’s trade war wiped out their market, and that ain’t ever coming back. Just the other day China halted big purchases, and last year Brazil and others (including Russia, which I am sure is just a coincidence) eagerly stepped in and filled the void.
So there is that problem. On top of that, I don’t think people fully appreciate just how fundamental the corn crop to so much of our manufacturing and economy. Beyond the obvious foodstuffs, corn is also a key component in everything from cattle feed to pet food to ethanol for cars to vinegar and on and on and on. Almost every product will be more expensive- including beverages, because in response to the US Sugar program, which places tariffs and sets prices for sugar producers, beverages are made from… high fructose corn syrup. It also factors in to a wide number of industrial products, like the following:
* Industrial products — Soaps, paints, corks, linoleum, polish, adhesives, rubber substitutes, wallboard, dry-cell batteries, textile finishings, cosmetic powders, candles, dyes, pharmaceuticals, lubricants, insulation, wallpaper and other starch products.
* Fermentation products and byproducts — industrial alcohols, fuel ethanol, recyclable plastics, industrial enzymes, fuel octane enhancers, fuel oxygenates and solvents.
Again, virtually every stage of manufacturing will be impacted. This, with Trump’s tariffs with Mexico already jacking up prices for consumers and economists predicting a recession in the near term, and it is scary. Making it even scarier is that this isn’t going to be a one-off. Climate change isn’t going to just stop. The flooding is going to become more and more commonplace- you’d think people would notice that they are having 100 year floods every year, but apparently not.
So again, the whole thing has me concerned. Not that there is any realistic chance we’ll fucking do anything about it. The idiots in those states will still keep electing wingnuts, and they’ll respond by transferring tax dollars from blue states to distressed farmers in the moocher red states (and Trump’s wealthy buddies), and talk about salt of the earth real Muricans and evil liberal coastal elites.
Keith P.
This could be the byline for this blog, along with “FUCK YOU ALL, I’M IN A BAD MOOD!”
Kelly
A very corny thread
https://twitter.com/swiftonsecurity/status/1074810043495796736?lang=en
raven
High as an elephants eye by the 4th of July
gene108
People notice the 100 year floods every few years or weather during each season being noticeably different than it was 20 years ago.
It’s just that a random group of people noticing “this ain’t right” are not going to be able to come with a solution. They (we) need informed leadership to design a solution, which we can’t have, because people keep voting Republican
Dan B
I kept yapping about the Jet Stream for the last month. It was crazy whipsawed by the warming – crazy warming – of the Arctic. This reduces the temperature differential between the Arctic and Temperate zones and slows the Jet Stream. Big temp differential makes a faster and smoother Jet Stream like a faster river runs straighter and a slow river meanders. We had a Jet Stream running south of SoCal and meandering north of Minnesota and Michigan, a meander of nearly 2000 miles! In between the storm systems were epic, dragged along by the Jet Stream.
It looks like the first big impact of the Climate Crisis may be food and the economic costs. Sorry Miami. You may not be the first casualty.
We may be learning how the Netherlands is the biggest food exporter in Europe. Brown thumbs line up for your lessons!
Omnes Omnibus
@raven: I remember my grandfather using my 18 month old brother as the measuring tool for “knee high by the Fourth of July.”
Ohio Mom
My cousin’s son and his wife had their first child two months ago. While I am enjoying everyone’s excitement about this first member of a new generation, in the back of my mind I am,”Why would anyone bring a new life into the cataclysm that global warming is bringing?”
Sometimes I think about congratulating all the cousins in the young adult generation who haven’t had babies yet but I don’t think that would go over well.
zhena gogolia
@raven:
Obligatory Alfred Drake:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2qSlQcJ4wk
RAVEN
@Omnes Omnibus: The difference between Wisconsin and Central Illinois?
Raven
Omnes Omnibus
@RAVEN: Probably.
ETA: That part of central Wisconsin is potato country anyway.
John Revolta
John, m’boy, ya gotta look at the big picture here. The farmers that didn’t get their crops in by May 20th, they get a disaster subsidy from, well, us actually. And the smaller farms who can’t weather the storms, as it were, well they’ll just get bought out by the big boys, so win-win, right? And yeah, the price of pretty much everything is gonna go up, but corn futures are through the roof so all the traders are gonna be raking in fat stacks, and it’ll all trickle down like it always does! So, relax bruh!!
Steve in the ATL
If there’s no corn, what are we going to use to ruin our gasoline?
Omnes Omnibus
@Steve in the ATL: Potato-based alcohol?
Mike J
@Steve in the ATL: Dinosaurs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYKupOsaJmk
phein60
I can’t speak for the rest of Illinois, but in the northern part of East Central Illinois, we’re just starting to see large scale planting (around Champaign-Urbana). Not unusual to be this late; the spring was very wet, and farmers are hurrying to get fields planted.
raven
@phein60: My hometown. Oskeewow!
Pharniel
Various Agriculture twitter have been posting farms saying “100% crop loss” and thinking that the Dakotas are hosed, but more southern farmers (such as Illinois) are going to be OK ish.
Still, the pictures of the floods. Just kills me and reminds me of the flooding in ’91 or so.
Another Scott
@John Revolta: Yeah, it’s complicated. ProgressiveFarmer (from May 28):
$8.82 a bushel for soybeans sounds like a great price to me. I would have thought that the price would have collapsed since China stopped buying. There’s obviously a lot going on that makes these decisions much less obvious.
Cheers,
Scott.
scav
A) wish I knew more about the traditional variance and B) I thought modern corn was growing shorter, more energy devoted to seed rather than leaves etc?
Not to dispute any weather oddness and trends.
Another Scott
@scav: On B, that’s my recollection as well. Pictures of great grandpa out in the field with his steam tractor and the corn being about 10′ high, vs the almost puny stuff these days that out produces it by several fold….
Cheers,
Scott.
MagdaInBlack
@Ohio Mom:
Ya know, I think that too, and bite my tongue regularly. ?
I remind myself the view from age 61 is different than the one from age 30.
They’re not as fed-up and cynical ?
Alex
@raven: In Michigan it is just “knee-high by the 4th of July.” Even so, this is concerning. Plowing wet soil can damage yields for years to come, so we may see an increase in no-till this year. According to Michigan Public Radio this morning, there is still time for decent crops of corn and soy if the weather cooperates this summer. So not panic mode yet…
dnfree
@raven: elephant’s eye is from the musical “Oklahoma”. The old saying was knee high by the Fourth of July, but with modern hybrids it is usually much higher than that.
To the main point, I’m from rural far northern Illinois, and we’re freaking out here.
Ripley
It’s been wet as fuck in Iowa this Spring. And last Spring. And the Spring before…
The county Republicans want to fly MAGA flags on the street poles for Flag Day (Trump’s b-day, also) in one of the small towns in the NE corner.
non sequiturs rock!!!
Jager
My famer cousin in North Dakota is still wearing his MAGA hat. My Good Brother in Law, who is in the commodity business, sent him a text that read, “Paul, do you miss Obama yet?”
I don’t think Paul will be buying a new ski boat this year and he hasn’t been to Vegas in 2019. OTH his dad, my Baby Uncle is getting nervous.
Steve in the ATL
@phein60:
Good lord—I never knew there were so many parts of the Illinois. As an Evanston native, my understanding of geography was “north side” and “rest of the state”.
mad citizen
There have been stories about this here in Indiana, but no one seems to be freaking out about it. It does seem to me like spring comes later and fall comes later, and it’s technically still Spring, so there is that. Hoping they can get going during this fairly dry week.
One think you didn’t mention–I think I have this right–is that if there is a shortage or high-priced feed corn, don’t the beef ranchers liquidate more of their stock, driving been prices lower? Well-done burgers for MAGA-land!
MomSense
My grandfather managed four plantings a summer. I don’t know how he did it but I did enjoy running through the rows. The corn was so much taller than I was.
Another Scott
In other news, VW working on ways to keep you from vomiting in autonomous cars.
Yay future!!1
Cheers,
Scott.
NotMax
@Raven
Nipple high by the 4th of July.
;)
JGabriel
John Cole @ Top:
I think it probably would be a bigger deal under normal circumstances, but, as a result of China (and other states) directing a lot of their purchasing to other countries in response to Trump’s trade war, I suspect we won’t see much of an actual shortage here in this country.
Edited to Add: We also tend to overproduce most crops by a large amount, particularly grains, even after taking sales to foreign countries into account.
But that’s all speculation from me based on general reading. I hope some people with actual agricultural knowledge and/or experience weigh in.
Ken
I always mentally translate that as “guys who are paid to guess, guessed wrong”.
Adam L Silverman
This is from an email with someone I know regarding the national security threats of climate change.
Gravenstone
Oh yeah. Anecdata, but here in east central WI, I would estimate there are less than 20% of the fields planted, including those in my immediate vicinity. There are a shit ton of farmers who are looking at either no crops, or rolling the dice and trying to get a crop in, knowing they won’t harvest until late October or November – if at all.
Gravenstone
@JGabriel:
Shortage of consumable crops is just one aspect of it. No crop = no cash. The bigger agribusiness sorts can likely absorb that for a year or three. Smaller farmers (“smaller” being relative) may be looking at liquidating land or other real property to bridge the gap until next year. Assuming next year is any better.
Omnes Omnibus
@Gravenstone: East Central WI? Shawano?
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: The Navy has been thinking about these issues for at least 10 years now. They should be doing more, of course.
Cheers,
Scott.
JanieM
Think how much healthier we’d be as a nation if we stopped ingesting so much high fructose corn syrup!
Steve in the ATL
@Adam L Silverman: I look forward to “64 40 or fight!” in our next skirmish up north
Gravenstone
@Omnes Omnibus: A couple counties south.
LivinginExile
Quite a bit of the corn that is planted won’t be yielding what it normally would. A lot of drowned out areas that have been underwater for to long..
Omnes Omnibus
@Gravenstone: Got it.
JGabriel
@Gravenstone:
True. But I’m having difficulty feeling much sympathy for farmers who, by largely voting Republican, spent the past 40 years voting against doing anything to prevent or ameliorate climate change when we still could.
The people who spent the past five decades electing travesties like Nixon, Reagan, the Bushes, and Trump are getting what they voted for. To quote the kind of biblical cliche conservatives like throw out there when other people are suffering: They’re reaping what they sowed.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: I’m aware.
NotMax
Isn’t everyone switching to growing kale? //
Mike in NC
@Another Scott: So it’s not just most of the CIA and FBI, but the CNO himself is a traitor!?!
mrmoshpotato
@Steve in the ATL:
You’re from our biggest suburb?
Dan B
@Adam L Silverman: Security will be an issue when survival is threatened. Drought in Honduras and El Salvafor has added to migration pressure. Subtropical (dry) regions will expand around the globe. High rainfall will occur in some years followed by drought and/or heat. Northern India and Pakistan are experiencing heat that is 5 degrees farenheit above already insufferable heat. And I don’t believe that Canada and Russia will increase agricultural yields significantly. Quality soils are limited in these regions. I don’t believe the analysis has taken thus factor into account. Also if early Spring and late Fall temperatures do not increase it will be difficult to brong crops consistently to harvest. And predictions for much warmer winters bode ill for pests and diseases. British Columbia and the PNW were looking good for people escaping an arid US Southwest but the massive forest fires are truly ominous.
Rapid and erratic change is tough. And our tendency to be oblivious to large scale patterns is an added hurdle. How many jackals are well versed in the coincidence of destabilizing droughts encirclong the globe in the subtropics? And we are a very well informed bunch.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax: And avocado toast! That grows in the fields, right?
Tenar Arha
John @ top
Fair warning but the Twitter tag #noplant19 gives a snapshot of what’s been written in crop reports.
Jackie
@JGabriel: Amen!
Aleta
@Another Scott: Do you really have pics of your great grandfather on a steam tractor in a corn field? That’s pretty cool. My father used to drag us to see the screaming steam tractors and threshing machines at a place where they had a parade.
My cornfield story is playing hide and seek in the rows at my friend’s farm; but my partner’s is better. When he was 4 years old his mother would send him off on his own to visit the neighbors on the next farm over. She’d set him down at the edge of their corn field. Put him in a row, told him to stay in that row and just keep walking, don’t stop until you come to the neighbor’s house. He remembers walking forever under this towering corn. When it was time to go home, they set him down in the same row and off he went.
smedley the uncertain
@Raven: Aye, but when do you plant? When the leaf on the oak is the size of a mouse ear.
satby
@JGabriel: Rural areas may vote Republican, but Illinois is a blue state. “We” haven’t voted for Republicans for President since Bill Clinton.
smedley the uncertain
@Omnes Omnibus: Excellent Vodka…
LosGatosCA
Look at the bright side – all the methane gas released from the frozen tundra in Russia will reduce the need for the excessive corn crops in the US. Plus the huge possibility of massive release of frozen bacteria and viruses that humans may have lost any immunity for.
So perhaps the human overpopulation problem will be solved as biological assaults and famine balance the books of the human destruction of multitudes of species.
It’s not all downside.
chopper
out by where i grew up in northern illinois nothings been planted due to the insane rains. my mom jokingly asked me the other day if i knew anybody with rice paddy experience.
LongHairedWeirdo
You know, I hate to say this, because I honestly have no opinion on prospective diarrheal implications of the corn crop. Still: you need to check out whether there are non-GOPpies who are concerned about this. Remember, these are the people who said aluminum tubes that couldn’t be used for centrifuges could *only* be used for that purpose; that mobile structures that were impossible to use for bio/chem weapons, but could be use to generate hydrogen for weather balloons couldn’t be *anything* other than mobile weapons labs, etc..
(Some people say they lost all respect for Colin Powell for seeing him give the UN presentation. I didn’t – he was trying to be a good soldier, knowing he was facing a foe too big for him, and did what he could. The *moment* he said those were clearly mobile weapons labs, after I’d already seen that they couldn’t have undergone the chemical treatments needed to handle them safely, if they were mobile weapons labs – that’s the first time I saw him tell a shitbird lie, and *that* is when I lost all respect for him. Sorry, Mr. Powell – stand up to Trump, and you might win some back. But you gotta stand up for him like a man, like the frickin’ *GENERAL* you are… not like some two bit wannabe lickspittle. Sorry – you don’t deserve that prima facie, but you sure as hell do ex post.)
something fabulolus
@Steve in the ATL: Wut?!?! Former Evanstonians, unite! Or, act collectively for the common good! Or something!
JimV
@Ohio Mom–I’ve been biting my tongue on that issue for the last twenty years or more. In 1900 the whole world had about 1 billion people; when I was born after WWII, about 4 billion; in 2000, about 6 billion. Less than 20 years later, we’ve added more people than existed in 1900. This cannot go on, and is the ultimate source of most of our problems, including climate change, it seems to me. But what can you say? People want to have children, it’s like a basic evolutionary drive. (Science fiction pointed out the problem in the 1960’s and 1970’s, with John Brunner’s “Stand on Zanzibar” and Larry Niven’s child lottery but has been quiet on it pretty much since.) (Yes, the rate has slowed down, but it looks like not enough to keep us from going off the cliff.)