New Monmouth poll of Nevada:
Biden – 36%
Warren – 19%
Sanders – 13%
Buttigieg – 7%
Harris – 6%First poll in any early state that has Warren over Sanders.
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) June 12, 2019
“Figures lie and liars figure!…”
Lots of manufactured media narratives about other candidates supposedly surging – but actually, Quinnipiac's new poll confirms that the candidate with by far the biggest surge since April is…@BernieSanders.
Biden: -8
Sanders: +8
Warren: +3
Buttigieg: -2https://t.co/ivBOXQGpcD pic.twitter.com/wbhdx4FeQE— David Sirota (@davidsirota) June 12, 2019
Why'd he cut off the March column?
— The Bearded Crank (@beardedcrank) June 12, 2019
— The Bearded Crank (@beardedcrank) June 12, 2019
In other words: When Biden announced, Sanders lost 8 points, which he has since regained. Of course, his numbers could continue to improve… but since March, Elizabeth Warren has gone from 4 points to 15. And she’s trending!
Drake and I have collectively sold 4 million albums in the last year. https://t.co/zHHWH7Gpr2
— Molotov Frappuccino Thrower (@agraybee) June 12, 2019
Overall, I remain taken by surprise at how taken by surprise the Sanders campaign seems to be that Biden is polling in front of them. A lot will change between now and Iowa and polls could be off even then, but they seem to have a lot of wishful thinking in lieu of a strategy.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 12, 2019
Jonathan Bernstein, at Bloomberg:
… As Nate Silver points out, only about 8% of Democrats say they’re definitely supporting Sanders. In other words, it’s entirely plausible that Sanders could fail to reach the delegate threshold in Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina (and possibly New Hampshire). Even if he stayed in, he probably wouldn’t be much of a factor.
Sanders does have some assets, of course. That 8% matches former Vice President Joe Biden’s dedicated voters, and no one else registers as more than a rounding error at this point. If it’s true that any candidate can catch fire and surge in the polls, then Sanders definitely starts a step ahead of everyone but Biden. He also has plenty of money and the capacity for raising more. He remains well-liked by Democrats.
They just probably don’t want to vote for him. What happened to the 43% of the vote he received in primaries and caucuses in 2016? Only a fraction of those votes came from dedicated Sanders fans – that is, people who really thought he should be president. Some of those voters wanted to push the party in a more liberal direction. Some thought they could send Hillary Clinton a message. Some just disliked Clinton. In short, it was clear at the time that a lot of Sanders votes were protest votes, and everything so far in 2020 confirms that he simply doesn’t have that many dedicated supporters…
I think when it comes to the most liberal voters, Noah Berlatsky has it right: “There’s nothing wrong with Sanders. It’s just becoming increasingly clear that, for the 2020 primary electorate, there isn’t anything overwhelmingly right with him either.” Is it possible for Sanders to win? Sure. Is he among the 10 most likely nominees? I don’t think so.
satby
Sirota really turned out to be a complete tool, didn’t he?
Gin & Tonic
@satby: Gotta pay the bills.
Sab
When did Twitter let Dave Weigel back on? I thought he wasn’t white nationalist enough for them?
Amir Khalid
How has Biden been doing in the polling of late?
ETA: Never mind. I can see that’s already been covered.
NotMax
Snort. Guffaw.
James E Powell
Biden & Sanders both have extremely low numbers considering how high their name recognition is.
lamh36
Hey BJ.
So my mom had a great time in Vegas seeing Anita Baker, but man I’m still feeling the jet lag. I need to catch up on sleep, but shoot between working the next 7 days straight and working the past 2 days, and summer grad school classes, I’m tired as heck.
Since I’ve basically been traveling within the past 3 weeks (London, Dallas, Vegas) I’ve mostly been catching up on politics via twitter not much blog commenting. Am I the only one who notices how hostile some of the different candidate suppoting factons are being on social media. Every darn day it’s a new outrage. Lordt help me, it’s exhausting and we haven’t even had the debate yet.
Ya’ll already know, I’m a Kamala supporter, I want her be the nominee, from the begining, I decided that I was not gonna sit around and support her by trying to malign or demonize or harangue the other SERIOUS Dem candidates…because if Kamala isn’t the nominee some other one will…and Lord knows, Im really not, trying to repeat the primary infighting that continued into the general. I don’t want a repeat of 2016 where factions were created and by the time the general rolled around all the infighting blended into the general…
Because even though I think Chump is beatable, Dems will still need ALL of us to work towards beating him…esp with the white majority likely to vote to keep the status quo. If Biden wins the nomination you can bet the same folks latching on to ANY thing to be outraged about…especially the loudest folks on social media, will be the same folks who won’t be willing to fight to help Dems win because a of the bullshit being thrown just to topple him or insult the folks who support him.
anyway i decided to continue to support my candidate by making sure to showcase her policies and temperament not by tearing down the others with petty and non legit bullshit. I’ll try to spend my time talking up Kamala Harris not talking down or spreading gotcha clip or GIFs or clickbait, because Lord knows, as sure as you can bet, if Kamala comes through in the early primaries, the next “gotcha” GIF will be of Kamala…and it’ll be some of the same folks spreading gotcha shit against other candidates who will be crying the loudest about it all.
At the very least, it’s better to have more choices of good candidates than having the opposite and only have chumps to choose from.
Anyway…let me get to bed.
Have a good night BJ.
Raoul
Oh that Hickenlooper! He’s … uhhh …. lost the 1% he managed to pull in his announcement month. And never gotten it back.
I know this is a whupped horse, but what possesses a person to think they’ll be the Nth person in a race that crowded? Sure, Biden waited, but he’d been the VP of the US for two terms. But the governor of the 21st most populous state? Huh. (Same could be said for really any of the people on that one tweet pic with several dashes across the table. Just picking on this guy because I have some personal interest in CO politics).
L85NJGT
@James E Powell:
I’m sure they do well among 1992 Democratic Party primary voters.
DougJ’s post last night, about the potential stickiness of the suburban voter shift, seemed to have slipped under the radar. If those voters pull Democratic Party primary ballots, both the old white guy campaigns are done.
J R in WV
@lamh36:
Anita Baker, that’s some good taste! And so is Senator Harris!
I’m with you, glad to see Senator Warren pass Bernie Sanders, the second Russian Stooge running in this election. Oops, I broke your rule, sorry. A little sorry. Not much. Really dislike Bernard Sanders. Of course, I may get off because Sanders isn’t a Democrat, he’s just using the Democratic Party.
You rest up, you got a trip to Paris to rest up for!!!
jl
Glad Warren is trending up.
I think there is wild over interpretation of the big swings in both Biden and Sanders numbers. Both are still in solid first and second place in national and most state polls. Biden isn’t booming, and Sanders isn’t collapsing. You can look at the trends at Real Clear Politics.
We’ll see what happens after the debates start and the candidates campaign.
But, I’m very glad to see Warren slowly and steadily moving up.
Jay
@lamh36:
Most social media is a cesspool, and not all of a “Cantidates Supporters” are actually Cantidate Supporters.
lamh36
@J R in WV: Oh I know the feeling bout Bernie. But lordt even Bernie would be better than Chump. So I’ll just keep it moving the next time I see the latest and let him numbers explode on their own, I don’t hunk Bernie is gonna be even close to being the nominee anyway so Ima just put him out of sight out of mind and instead focus on promoting and supporting Kamala anyway I can
Adam L Silverman
@Sab: That’s Dave Neiwert, perhaps the most significant journalist tracking, chronicling, and reporting on domestic right wing extremists for the past 30 plus years.
lamh36
@Jay: Oh I know. I tend not to follow obvious bots. When/if I see bit-like behavior I will block them with the quickness.
No the folks I follow I have been doing so for year now and they have to meet certain criteria before I even retweet or follow them
Jay
@Raoul:
Just because you collect money for a Presidential Campaign, doesn’t mean you have to spend it on a Presidential Campaign.
Support garnered from Influencers and Donors can also be traded for favours/promises from the leading Campaigns, for dropping out and passing on support,
And of course, Nym recognition for future runs.
Hinkelooper has until March 20th, 2020 to switch gears from a Presidential Campaign to a Senate run.
jl
@lamh36: I’m supporting Warren right now, but I am very glad Harris is hanging in right behind. Whether win or lose, she will be a powerhouse for the Dems, shine in the debates. Like Warren she has put well thought out policy up front of the campaign.
Early national polling doesn’t mean much, but one of the few things it indicates is that Warren and Harris solidly in the top five. And those two are necessary to create really great primary debates. I guess I should make a donation to Harris too.
jl
@Jay: Some are probably auditioning for jobs in a new Democratic administration too.
Jay
@lamh36:
Because social media is such a cesspool, even “rational” people can become “triggered” and respond differently than they might normally do.
A lot of Democratic commenters on social media, came to loathe Wilmer, because of the packs of social media account attack dogs, some who were and wern’t Bernie supporters.
Some people get too caught up in arguing with trolls, rather than blocking or banhammering, and it effects what they then write online.
Jay
@jl:
That’s part of that “favour” thing I was talking about.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@jl:
he just lost 9 points in Ann Selzer’s gold stardard poll for Iowa. 3 years ago he got 49% of the vote in Iowa, now he’s down to 16%. Objectively, if it was anyone else, it would be called a collapse.
Jay
So East West Market in Vancouver, B.C. has a novel way of getting customers to remember their reusable bags,…..
If you forget your bags, and need a bag, you get to leave with large branded bags from:
– Into the Weird Adult Emporium
– The Colon Cares Co-op
– Dr.Tewes Wart Ointment Wholesale
https://www.unilad.co.uk/news/supermarket-uses-embarrassing-plastic-bags-so-customers-will-remember-their-reusable-ones/
Mandalay
@Raoul:
At this point four years ago Trump hadn’t announced he was running, and this is what James Fallows said about him in 2015:
Fallows is no dummy, and he certainly wasn’t alone in treating Trump’s candidacy as a joke.
It’s highly unlikely that Hickenlooper will win the nomination at this time, but it’s not impossible, and certainly less absurd than thinking Trump would win at this stage 4 years ago.
And it’s good to have folks like him and Biden in the race, if only to explicitly reject some of their DINO views.
TomatoQueen
CoffeeBoy, per several snorts on fakeBook, is “suspending his campaign for now.”
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Trumpian.
attack the media, scream about “conflicts of interest”, declare the polls to be fake.
In reality – because Warren and Pete are rising and Sanders is sliding, he’s received very little attention by the general media.
Jay
@TomatoQueen:
Covfefe Boy?
The guy who murdered the Seattle Supersonics?
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
I love Elizabeth Warren, but I don’t want another president who takes office after 70. I’m really pulling for Harris.
frosty
@Jay: Would you please learn to spell “candidate”? I like your comments, but the extraneous t is distracting.
FlipYrWhig
Remember when a somewhat idiosyncratic Senator challenged the “establishment candidate” and improbably placed second with encouraging enough numbers that he decided to run again?
Am I describing Sanders 2020 or Santorum 2016?
FlipYrWhig
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Maybe THIS is finally the year when “Oh, but the polls don’t reach cell phones, so really the liberal Democrat is doing much better” will ACTUALLY be true.
Jay
ola azul
Obama Team Frustrated by Biden’s Appeals to Bipartisanship
No, they fucking well don’t, Joe. Not sure which is worse: If Biden actually believes this truckling horseshit, or if he’s just using nostalgia-for-never-was as a cynical ploy to reassure and placate the frightened with illusory Tip-n-Ronnie fairy tales of a return to normalcy. Think it was Adam who recently made the point that you can’t return to the once-was when the apple cart is already been violently overturned. Ain’t gonna happen, and it’s selfish political malpractice to pretend that you can. Assuming you don’t, you know, lose b/c you’ve demoralized the most energetic and engaged voters with your “can’t-we-all-get-along-with-traitors-and-those-who-love-them” shtick, you hobble the Democratic agenda needlessly, and you misinform the electorate about the very real dangers that exist and long predate Trump.
Was this doddering oaf asleep for the entirety of Obama’s two terms? Does Biden not recall Yertle’s immediate reaction to Obama’s presidency: to do all w/in his power to make Obama a one-term president? Or how the ACA was repeatedly made worse by reaching across the aisle with Republicans, in the hopes of gaining GOP support, and then not fucking one of ’em voted for it?
And why is it always Democrats’ responsibility to “reach across the [Overton window] aisle” ever rightward? Don’t never hear the press much less Republicans mewling about Republicans working with Democrats. Joe’ll work the refs *for* Republicans. Go Joe!
When Republicans have the numbers, they wield power to enact their agenda w/o apology. (That it’s nasty, brutish and self-serving is a feature notta bug for them.)
Would very much like to see Dems become comfortable with the idea of wielding power when they have it. Use it. Or lose it.
Think the biggest beef I got with Biden (again, stupid or lying; why not both!) is he likes to pretend that Trump is an aberration. He is not. Trump is the culmination, the apothe-fucking-osis of 40 years of insular, fact-free movement conservatism. That Joe either don’t know this or affects not to know it is, for me, purty damning.
I, too, am heartened to see Warren trending upward. Am hopeful Harris does, too. Would be over-the-moon ecstatic if either were to win the nom. Fatuous retreads who don’t know the 80s are over and Republicans Daddys ain’t your friend are inimical to the Dem agenda, and, these days, democratic governance itself.
Fuck Joe. Some peeps run cuz they wanna do something, some run cuz they wanna be somebody. Rooting for injuries and derailment on the Biden train, which, given his penchant for hemmhoraging gaffes, seems likely.
We can do so, so much better.
Amir Khalid
@frosty:
Please don’t nag Jay about his spelling. It gets him all upset, and makes him wonder why you don’t love him anymore.
NotMax
@Amir Khalid
Not to mention brings on a blizzard of a’p’o’s’t’r’o’p’h’e’s.
;)
Plato
@NotMax: As apposed to a blizzard of ;)’s ?
;)
Yutsano
@Amir Khalid: Are we back to the delicate fees-fees thing again?
JWR
Given my inability to keep up these past several weeks, (and I’m pretty sure it’s come up), I have to ask what I think is a reasonable question, that being: Which candidate *cough* Biden *cough*, do you think would be most likely to pardon Trump?
NotMax
@plato
Let a
smile;) be your umbrella…Jay
Plato
@NotMax: smile is simile for umbrella?
;)
ola azul
@ola azul:
If Obama, one of the the most charismatic politicians in our history, was unable to overcome Republican obstructionism and persuade Republicans to work with him, despite working tirelessly (and I would argue holding the bipartisanship candle far too long), Joe “ReflectedGlory” Biden thinks he can pull it off when Obama could not — why, exactly?
If Biden actually believes this to be true, that Republicans know better and are eager to work with Dems once Trump is gone, and he believes it *in spite of* its being categorically untrue for his far more politically talented predecessor, then what Biden’s saying, at bottom, is his “good friends across the aisle who know better” (according to Joe) are spiteful racist fucks (hard to argue with that), but once they got some a that magic white-guy special sauce back in office, things’ll get back on track licketty-split. From the GOP’s perspective, chummy ol’ Joe’s gotter half-right. Only problem is Biden’s a white guy *and* a Democrat.
“Mr. Biden, former President Bill Clinton on line one. Say he’s gotta newsflash for you.”
I fears Biden’s a political animal whose instincts are extinct.
NotMax
@Plato
Late night sing-along.
Yutsano
@ola azul: Biden was a Senator when the Gingrich infection seized the House. That was when masks really started to come off for who the Republicans really are. He couldn’t possibly be that stupid to think that the bipartisan past is going to return.
At least I hope not.
Plato
@NotMax:Insert thumbsup pic.
Srsly, how do people insert pics here?
Jay
@Plato:
Front pagers can post photo’s,
Us Jackal’s, links to online photo’s,
Or just imogees.
Jay
@ola azul:
Way too soon in the process to get worked up about any one Candidate.
@Yutsano:
Some suggest that Biden suffers from Beltway Disease,
Some suggest he’s working the “good old days Centerist nostalgia” in a time of Dolt 45.
ola azul
@Yutsano:
Perhaps you’re right, but as I sez earlier: not sure which is worse, that he actually believes it (i.e. never-learns never-leads Hyde-Amendment-supporting plodding oaf angle) or that he pretends to believe it (i.e. cynically misleading the electorate for selfish short-term gains but ultimately self-defeating long-term hobbling of the Dem agenda)?
Am inclined to believe it’sa bitta both.
Joe Biden: Leading from behind since forever, but now with a shiny-new hunker-in-the-bunker “did-I-win-yet?” prevent defense.
Cannot fucking wait for this gladhandling dolt to (hopefully) implode like a bloated red giant and collapse into a black hole of “who-gives-a-fuck?” oblivion.
rikyrah
@lamh36:
I hear you, lamh??
J R in WV
@ola azul:
Hey, Ol’ Blue, haven’t seen you for a while. A good thoughtful couplea paragraphs. Unca Joe lost me when he screwed Anita Hill and all the other women who wanted to speak about being harrased by Clarence Thomas.
Bernie Sanders lost me when he spent his honeymoon in Soviet Russia and came back home telling everyone how lovely the worker’s paradise was. That’s so, so stupid. I knew real Marxists and Trotskyites who went to Soviet Russia and came back turned into Democratic organizers. Not Bernie. He came back a Soviet Stooge, and was converted to a Russian stooge even before Vladimir Vladimirovitch Putin was in charge.
Last thing we need is two Russian stooges in this race, so the sooner and more embarrassing it is for Bernie, the better off we all are. So glad to see Senator Warren taking second place from Sanders, with Kamala Harris right there, in case anything untoward occurs in Warren’s campaign.
You take care, Blue, and tend to your loose wild apostraphes and such. Stick around, it’s about to get interesting in the big house in DC.
rikyrah
@ola azul:
????
Merrick Phucking Garland says hi, Uncle Joe??
ola azul
@Jay:
Not for me.
Emphatically don’t want Bernie, nor Tulsi, nor Biden (reasons differ, but endpoint same).
Been impressed (greatly) by Kamala n Liz.
Disagree, fundamentally, with the position that it’s too early. (Would cite the early oxygen Trump got; think if that tyrant baby campaign hadda arrived still-born steadda been allowed to trammel the midget punk all-star cast of Republican weaklings and cowards virtually uncontested.)
If Biden establishes himself as the “flight to safety”, which is seemingly his cynical maundering message, am fearful the baker’s two-dozen others running will cannibalize e/o’s numbers and Joe, like Trump, will indirectly benefit onna totally bullshit “electability” argument. (Which is consistently wrong.)
If Biden wins the nom, will support and vote for him, course. Just saying: We can do so, so much better. And hope we do.
Scotian
I recall one of the main reasons I felt HRC needed to be the nominee in 2008 over BHO was because she got what the GOP had become, whereas he didn’t. That Biden is unable to treat the GOP like the cancer it has become to the American political systems and culture these past 40 years is a very bad thing. As so many noted, Trump isn’t an aberration, he represents just how far the party has fallen from any principled beliefs. Their ONLY belief is only they have the right to govern, and any and all things they do to ensure it and block any time Dems hold any power is only the right thing to do
And since Trump is giving them/GOP the judiciary so that Federalist society activist judges can further that control that makes him just fine to the party, both leadership and voters. I truly weep for this reality and pray that in the end the GOP takeover finally shows the disengaged middle that stopped voting ” because both parties are the same” aka the Nader argument just how much that is not true and how the GOP is against them and their basic political and social interests
Else I think Gilead is not likely to stay fiction.
I won’t be here to see it, I just hope 2020 is the beginning of the great awakening on this front, and Biden is not the torchbearer for such. Sanders of course isn’t either, he is nothing but a toxic invader of the Dems when he needs their collective power, all other times he glories in being what he is, an independent gadfly on the body politic.
ola azul
@J R in WV:
Am deeply, abidingly, all-encompassingly envious of your swordfish dinner tonight.
(Boughtta 32-foot-diameter sea anchor this spring offa guy who was heading out to Peru — think it was — to longline for swords. Had only deployed it once — looks great.)
tobie
I’m still with Beto and Booker. Beto’s policy proposals on immigration, electoral reform, climate change and reproductive rights have been superb — detailed, comprehensive, and what you might call ‘intersectional.’ He gets that no issue exists in a vacuum. Today he issued his LGBTQ policy and I very much liked his emphasis on the immigration, healthcare, and criminal justice angles of the issue. Bonus points to him for involving the trans activist he met in March in Detroit in the crafting of the policy. I was touched by this video at the time and glad he stayed true to his word. It’s something I could also imagine Booker doing, which is why he remains a close second on my list.
J R in WV
@ola azul:
Overdid it in the over. With good salsa on it, a little lime a little olive oil, crushed garlic. It was still moist, tasted was good, a little too long so it was brown on the bottom.
Was also roasting potatoes, wanted them ton be crisp, and they were… a timing issue. The salad and wine were tops. I enjoyed dinner wife is sleeping well, I’m sleepy here at the laptop/table, but when I lie down, all alert again… glad to have B-J for something to read and type.
Careful with the sea anchor, don’t pull a piece off the boat with a bigger one.
Take care, ol blue. I’m gonna take another swing at sleep, things have cooled down, I had a class of milk, and then a dram of bourbon.
ola azul
@J R in WV:
Ha! (Funny you should say. Yer an old swabbie, if memory serves, ya?) Anyways, tis good advice — them things is sure known to wreak havoc inna heaving sea on rinky-dinkitude fittings.
Cut a 20 x 20 x 1/2 plate, then had two 14-inch cleats welded on, slapped on two coverings of Ice’n-WaterShield on underside, then slathered on the 5200 fast-cure, place plate where thought it’d answer best, n sunk six 1/2″ x 8″ ss thru-bolts, and four 5/8″ x 8″ thru-bolts thru the whole mess (1/2″ plate, 2″ f/g n deck, 3 1/2″ deck joists, 1/2″ backing plates).
Hardest part is ain’t nothing straight onna boat, specially at the foredeck near the anchor pulpit, so hadda devise levering system to make 20 x 20 cleat plate bend, if not to my will exactly, at least nestle like the new moon in the old moon’s arms to the camber of the deck. They’s cuddling like lovers now.
Tx. for welcome; ain’t far behind for the land a nod, myself.
tobie
This is a great thread on fake personae generated on the computer to saturate social media.
Raven
@ola azul: wtf-k?
WaterGirl
@Scotian: Much respect to you. You are still so engaged with the world, not to mention that I am amazed that you can settle down enough to write so beautifully in spite of what you are going through. You know that you will be missed here, and I am no less certain that you will be terribly missed in your real life. love and hugs to you.
Scotian
@WaterGirl:
My life since childhood has had a strong political element thanks to the family I was born into plus which relatives I grew up closest to. As my father used his lifetime in the dog show world as a focus to manage his terminal cancer I am using politics as one of mine.
Besides, while the cancer is eating up my innards so far my brain is clear, so might as well make what good use of it while I can, right? This who I am, and how I have always tried to live my life, so I see no reason to stop just because I have one of the ugliest kinds of cancer going. I know my time is limited, but what else can I do with it other than what I am? I can’t beat the cancer, but I also can’t let it beat me from staying true to being me.
Dupe1970
@James E Powell: Bingo!
Miss Bianca
@Scotian: Dead thread and all, so not sure you will see this, Scotian, but still….
Somehow I missed the news that you were so unwell. I am so, so sorry to hear it. Thanks for hanging in here with us on your journey to the undiscovered country (sorry, am in the midst of “Hamlet”, so Will’s words on mortality are all that come to mind right now.)
J R in WV
@Scotian:
You may find that your drive to continue in your personal activity keeps you going longer than expected by your doctors. My mom was diagnosed with terminal COPD (from a long long habit with Pall Mall smokes) yet had two grandkids show up about the same time.
Doctors told dad and I not long after her move back home from Florida that she probably had 6-9 months left. She died 5 years later in my father’s arms at 5 am in their bedroom. After seeing those grandkids several times.
So you work your ass off, keep busy with stuff that’s important to YOU — not house cleaning, but writing and thinking about what’s important, has always been important. Maybe you will still make it to see Trump under arrest, cuffed and led away. Maybe not, but it gives you something important to work towards personally.
Best of luck. Keep in touch. We care!
Scotian
@Miss Bianca: @J R in WV:
Thanks to both of you, it is appreciated. JR, even if it doesn’t make it any longer, it will make the quality of that time better, but I will take whatever I can get.
Miss Bianca, I’ve always valued this community for the way it accepted my writings, but also for the very real community spirit it has shown to so many in my years here. I would not be sharing here otherwise, but this is as much of an online family as I have, and believe you me I appreciate more now than ever.