Me, four years ago: The DNC shouldn't rig the primaries to benefit any one candidate over any other one.
Me, now: I'm not saying that the DNC should rig the lottery to put Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Harris on the same debate stage. I'm just not *not* saying that.
— Jonathan "Boo and Vote" Cohn (@JonathanCohn) June 12, 2019
Surprise! Ain’t nobody happy about the results — a phrase which may be Tom Perez’s epitaph. Per the Washington Post:
Former vice president Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the two leading candidates in early Democratic presidential polling, will share the stage later this month as the party holds its first back-to-back nights of debates…
Joining Biden and Sanders on the second night will be Sen. Kamala D. Harris (Calif.), Sen. Michael F. Bennet (Colo.), South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.), former Colorado governor John Hickenlooper, Rep. Eric Swalwell (Calif.), author and spiritual guru Marianne Williamson and technology entrepreneur Andrew Yang.
The group debating on the first night will include Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.), former Obama Cabinet member Julián Castro, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, former congressman John Delaney (Md.), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii), Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), former congressman Beto O’Rourke, Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.).
The DNC had sought to divide the field in such a way that one debate would not appear more important than the other. The announcement Friday drew immediate questions about whether the organization had succeeded.
Night two includes four of the five candidates who are averaging at least 7 percent support in a Washington Post average of national polls over the past month — Biden, Sanders, Harris and Buttegieg. Night one includes Warren, who stands at 12 percent in recent national polls, while all other candidates that night hold less than 5 percent support…
NBC said candidates were divided into two groups, depending on whether they were polling above or below 2 percent. Random drawing from both groups resulted in assignment to either the first or the second night, with a goal of including a mix of higher-polling candidates and lower-polling candidates both nights.
Ill-judged cutoff percentage, IMO. (Of course, were it left to me, getting onstage would’ve required polling at least 3%, so… ) Politico is very excited, of course:
By splitting the Democratic presidential field’s top-tier candidates into two groups and dividing them evenly across two stages for the year’s first primary debates, the Democratic National Committee had hoped to avoid a repeat of the Republican Party’s “kiddie table” spectacle of 2016.
It got a stacked deck, anyway…
Harris and Buttigieg prosper
Most candidates, if not all, had hoped to draw a lectern alongside Biden or Sanders, eager to draft off the early front-runners’ stature — and to emphasize their own contrasts with them.Harris and Buttigieg will get them both…
The staging offers Buttigieg, the 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Ind., an opportunity to make more viscerally the argument for generational change that has been at the center of his rhetoric throughout his campaign.
Harris, meanwhile, will avoid a possible clash with Warren and the prospect of playing third wheel in a fight between Warren and Biden, candidates with a history of clashing…
Warren’s consolation prize
By chance, Warren was left out of the debate featuring most of the other top-polling candidates — an unlucky draw, according to many Democratic strategists.But NBC News’ decision to run her debate on the first night, when viewership is expected to be high no matter who is participating, is a consolation prize for the surging Massachusetts senator.
The first night’s stage will include former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, as well as Sens. Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar. For Warren and any of those candidates, not having to contend with Biden and Sanders could give them more room to stand out…
The debate lineup is a boon to underdog candidates such as Andrew Yang and Marianne Williamson, given the ratings bonanza that some expect it to be. Appearing alongside Biden and Sanders, Yang will have a chance to advocate a universal basic income, while Williamson, a spiritual guru, could appeal to the “deep thinkers” in the national TV audience with her calls for a moral and spiritual awakening…
Speaking of no-hopers, I still don’t understand how Bill deBlasio managed to qualify for this circus, but the Cult of the Savvy is happy, because “physicality matters” and deBlasio is extremely tall. Not making that up. Our Failed Media Experiment, folks!
Incidentally, here are the moderators, per NYMag:
…The first debate, it should be noted, will be hosted by NBC News, so it follows that NBC talent will be moderating the debate. On Tuesday, NBC announced that its lineup of moderators will include Rachel Maddow of MSNBC’s The Rachel Maddow Show, Lester Holt of NBC Nightly News and Dateline NBC, José Diaz-Balart of Noticias Telemundo and NBC Nightly News Saturday, Savannah Guthrie of Today, and Chuck Todd of Meet the Press.
Some activists have been working behind the scenes to ensure that networks put forth panels for the 2020 debates and town hall that are at least 50 percent women and people of color, so the response to the moderator list has been largely positive. The charge for the movement was largely led by the women’s group UltraViolet Action, which spearheaded the #AskForWomen pledge, in which candidates agreed to not participate in any debate that doesn’t include a woman as one of its moderators. (After the pledge’s announcement, the Democratic National Committee set a policy requiring women to be among the moderators at each debate.)…
Were *I* a straight white male, I would strenuously protest having Chuck Todd as my stand-in. Bright side for the network, should Todd be overcome by food poisoning on the crucial night, he can be replaced by an overenthusiastic Labrador Retriever, and tv viewers love dogs!
I only need 65,000 unique donors to become the sixth debate moderator, will you please give me a dollar? https://t.co/7i4Ue0iIO6
— Wyeth Ruthven (@wyethwire) June 12, 2019
Baud
Thanks, AL. I thought we were going to talk about John’s pergola all weekend.
Martin
Man, Biden is fucking lucky that Warren isn’t on the stage with him. This is Harris’s big opportunity. She needs to go for it.
But I think this is fine. We’ve already had about a million town halls. We’ll have a zillion debates. We’ll lose a few candidates, the standard to get on stage will go up, we’ll get all the heavy hitters at once pretty soon here.
I 100% guarantee that in hindsight we won’t rue the structure of the debates but the ineptitude of the moderators.
Martin
@Baud: John’s pergola made the 2nd night of debates. Not sure why it wasn’t mentioned in the article.
germy
What I’m wondering is will trump debate the winner of the Democratic primary? Knowing him, he might insist it be hosted by Fox and moderated by Hannity.
germy
@Martin: Pergola/Birdhouse 2020
debbie
Do we really believe the “random” in “Random drawing from both groups resulted in assignment to either the first or the second night, with a goal of including a mix of higher-polling candidates and lower-polling candidates both nights.”?
germy
Anyone want to wager that Chuck Todd’s first question at the debate will be to ask them if they agree Democrats should be cautious about appearing “too progressive and if not why?”
TenguPhule
@Baud:
Still preferable to the primaries.
TenguPhule
@germy:
No, no he won’t. Trump will employ the resources of the federal government to get unlimited campaigning media time on the taxpayer’s dime for self-love rallys before supporters.
HRA
Yes, I also wondered how Bill deBlasio made it to the debates and very surprised Elizabeth Warren is not in the 1st night debate.
I saw Moulton on a early day CNN Town Hall and thought he did well. It would have been interesting to see how he would be in the debates,
No I do not have a preference now like I did for Obama though I do find Kamala Harris gaining in my thoughts. My husband is very impressed with Kamala Harris,
TenguPhule
If anyone finds Hawaii’s missing representative, please don’t return her.
Another Scott
@Martin: +1
Warren can make a splash on the first night. Booker and Beto and Castro and Klobuchar will get more visibility and can duke it out and show whether they have a reason to continue.
Similarly with the 2nd night – Biden and Wilmer can crash, or not.
It’s fine. It’s just the first debate.
The press has no patience and wants everything they cover to be the most important thing ever. It’s not. Time doesn’t need to rush.
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@Martin:
Bougainvillea or wisteria? What say you pergola? The American people deserve a straight answer.
@debbie:
Yes.
joel hanes
Why the fuck am I reading a tweet by someone who apparently still thinks the DNC “rigged” the 2016 primaries?
Baud
@HRA:
She’s on the first night.
joel hanes
@debbie:
Do we really believe the “random”
Yes.
Baud
@joel hanes:
I assumed it was a joke. Otherwise, I agree.
germy
My wife built her own pergola in our backyard, using only long, heavy branches that had fallen into our yard over the years and some rope to bind them together. Climbing vines are now over them. It looks amazing, actually. It covers a small patio we built together and a little breakfast table and chairs. When we sit out there, the birds, squirrels and bunnies all nod their heads in silent approval.
Baud
@germy:
He’ll ask Bernie whether he’s being treated fairly this time.
JPL
@joel hanes: Because someone decided it was time to chat about something other than a pergola.
Major Major Major Major
@debbie: ….why wouldn’t we?
HRA
@Baud:
Now I will have to go and have a few words with my friend for sending “fake news”.
Thank you, Baud
JPL
@germy: That is so cool. If you want, please send Anne a pic.
Kathleen
@germy: Or if there’s any good reason they shouldn’t disavow Obama or demonize Hillary.
Major Major Major Major
That second debate is gonna be lit though.
Kathleen
@Baud: Another winning question from Chuck Todd for Bernie: “Is DNC so terrified of your brilliance, courage and popularity that it ‘s brought Debbie Wasserman Schultz back for the sole purpose of rigging primaries, caucuses and the general election against you?”
Baud
@Major Major Major Major:
Right. Warren will be jumping off the walls that she won’t be part of it.
Major Major Major Major
@Baud: it does give her the opportunity to define herself, and her opponents, without them there, to the degree that such things still matter.
NotMax
A Wednesday and a Thursday at the nether end of June? Bonanza?
Bwah-hah-ha-ha-ha. Maybe as in the quality of cuisine at Bonanza steakhouses*, but not in terms of riches.
Now the question is what steaming turds Dolt 45 will bestow upon the MSM the weekend and days immediately prior, meant to suck up all the oxygen in the room.
*Third-rate ‘shoe leather saloon’ chain from the get-go. #1 – #2 – #3
Jim Parish
@debbie: If you assign five people – the “big five” candidates – randomly into two groups, the odds are about one in three that they’ll be divided four in one group, one in the other. [Think of the assignment as a string of 1’s and 2’s; if, say, candidates A and C were assigned to group 1 and B, D, E to group 2, the string is 12122. There are thirty-two possible strings. Of those, there are five consisting of a 1 and four 2’s, and five more the other way, for a total of ten. So the probability is 10/32 = 0.3125.] So, a result like this is not exactly startling.
waspuppet
When they can’t say “because he’s a man” …
Ruckus
@Another Scott:
This.
Why do we worry about every poll, most of which have no bearing on the outcome?
Why are people worried about who debates who, on one day, over a year from the election?
BS still won’t know his ass from a hole in the ground, Biden will still be Biden, Warren will still be Warren…… Etcetera, blah, blah, blah……
This first debate will not set the tone for the rest of time. It just won’t.
Mary G
Much as I like Booker, Klobuchar, and Castro. I’m betting Warren will stand out of the first debate and increase her rise in the polls. She’s developed her talking to crowds immensely.
Wondering who will start the mudslinging? Somebody’s going to. They can sing Kumbaya as much as they want but one of the 2%-ers is going to be desperate to raise their profile and.get the couple more points to get into the second debate. Tulsi and Tim Ryan are my guesses for the first debate, for the. Indian heritage and being an old person of the wrong sex who’s a radical Soc1alist repectively.
Plato
All these hot takes from the third rate media = game of groans
Baud
@Major Major Major Major:
@Mary G:
True.
zhena gogolia
@joel hanes:
Right. I don’t like his nym either.
Baud
@Mary G:
Biden v. Bernie.
NotMax
@germy
“If you were an ice cream sundae, what flavor would you be?”
(half snark, as it’s C, Todd)
zhena gogolia
@NotMax:
You have all this s–t queued up ready to go?
zhena gogolia
@NotMax:
Ithought it was, “If you were a tree, what tree would you be?”
Steve in the ATL
@Plato:
That kept popping up every time I logged into Balloon Juice a couple of weeks ago
Dan B
@NotMax: My partner says that Trump will be promoting a blockade of Iran (added that it blockades SA, and Iraq), tariffs and border mischief with Mexico, and something something Korea / China so there is no media coverage of these debates because he can’t stand anyone else getting media.
Right?
Jim Parish
@Jim Parish: Umph. Let me revise what I said above; I looked up the actual procedure the DNC used, and a combination with one of the big five in one debate and the others in the other comes up only one time in seven – a little rarer than losing at Russian roulette. Not a big surprise, still.
NotMax
@zhena gogolia
I don’t have a clue who 90% of the people are in tweets AL graces us with, thus choose to ignore them entirely.
jk
@Martin:
I’m very confident in Kamala’s ability to wipe the floor with Biden and look forward to seeing it.
sdhays
Wow, that Politico article. They are practically orgasmic at having all these horses in this horse race. Just reading that snippit made me feel kind of weird.
I hope all the salivating over NOT TRUMP really bothers the ASSet.
TenguPhule
@zhena gogolia:
Baud2020: A willow in Cole’s backyard.
NotMax
@zhena gogolia
That would be telling.
:)
@zhena gogolia
Copyright held by Ms Walters, methinks.
:)
Villago Delenda Est
Warren terrifies the vile parasites of finance. So, naturally, at Schumer’s insistence, Warren is relegated to also ran group.
Baud
@Villago Delenda Est:
You got bit by the Wilmer bug?
TenguPhule
Add a potential Pandemic to Trump’s obscene mistreatment of human beings.
zhena gogolia
@NotMax:
Yep. I can’t remember what tree Kate said she would be.
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
I was also a bit flabbergasted by this uncharacteristic outburst.
Villago Delenda Est
@Baud: Wilmer’s policy choices have never been his problem with me. His utter inability to put together a plan to achieve them, and his fatal inability to play well with others, are why I want him sent on the same rocketship to the Sun as the entire 2016 GOP field.
TenguPhule
@Villago Delenda Est:
Venus is closer, cheaper and can get the same job done.
NotMax
Scene we’ll never see (think Chandler Bing voice):
“Really, Chuck? Could you possibly ask a stupider question?”
japa21
@joel hanes: But see, the primaries were rigged in 2016. The fact that they were rigged in Bernie’s favor is irrelevant, particularly since he was given every advantage and couldn’t do anything with it.
sdhays
@TenguPhule: If only Elon would focus on this goal instead of colonizing Mars…
TenguPhule
@NotMax:
Followed by “Hold my beer.”
NotMax
@TenguPhule
Yeah, Venus we can live without. Wouldn’t want to chance the Sun packing up and leaving in disgust.
rk
I’m not watching the debates. I’m voting for Warren in the primaries and the democrat in the election. She is far superior to anyone out there. Rest is all noise. Sometimes choices are very clear and simple.
TenguPhule
@sdhays:
I think Trump could be persuaded to go by telling him that Venus is abundant with Freedom molecules.
TenguPhule
Somebody break out the world’s smallest violin.
The NRA has been reported as being ten million in debt.
Plato
Baud
@Villago Delenda Est:
I was referring to the conspiracy theory.
Nicole
I also can’t figure out how de Blasio got into the debates, unless perhaps a lot of his contributors were donating in rubles.
Baud
@NotMax:
Isn’t Chandler out of work? Maybe we could hire him to do that.
ola azul
@Villago Delenda Est:
Don’t share your nefarious suspicions re: Warren’s landing in the first eve queue, but even if twere true, beware the law of unintended consequences.
If Warren shines (as I strongly suspect she will) on the 1st night and has ample opportunity to introduce herself and her policies and, most important I expect, the depth of her feeling twined with the heighth of her reasoning to the (interested) electorate, expect it’ll redound abundantly in her favor.
Folks might even fall in love.
(Myself, think Warren’s 1st night as the star is a blessing in disguise.)
Steve in the ATL
@TenguPhule: dollars or rubles?
Plato
@TenguPhule:
That’s ten million dollars or roubles?
Steve in the ATL
@Plato: off my corner, ho!
Plato
Drat, the union busting lawyer beat me to it.
Plato
@Steve in the ATL: So now, you are a CR lawyuh too?
NotMax
Ah, if only there had been more than 20 who met the qualifications and the rule for the axe to pare it to 20 was how long one has uninterruptedly been a member of the party.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@Plato: 643.8 Million Rubles
NotMax
@Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
Give or take a kopek.
;)
West of the Rockies
Can Tulsi and Williamson and Bennett and de Blasio just go away right now? Tomorrow could trim Moulton and Hickenlooper and several other couldabeen’s and neverwere’s…
TenguPhule
@Steve in the ATL: Dollars.
TenguPhule
@West of the Rockies: We don’t want her back. If the DNC can drop her off at Goodwill, we’d be much obliged.
Adam L Silverman
@Jim Parish: Tom Perez was assured there would be no math!
zhena gogolia
@West of the Rockies:
Bennet doesn’t belong with the others you name. He’s a serious person. His announcement was delayed by cancer treatment.
Adam L Silverman
Since Tom Perez appears to have given his balls to Nina Turner, perhaps we could get someone who knows what they’re doing running the DNC? Preferably someone who is a Democrat, which Perez is, and has a backbone, which Perez apparently does not.
Adam L Silverman
@Dan B: Actually he’s going to nuke the moon in order to clear the way to Mars.
Adam L Silverman
@Jim Parish: Most revolvers today have only five cylinders. Unless you’re doing this with a .22lr, the numbers will need to be adjusted for Russian roulette.
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
Just enough nukes to carve a yooge “T” onto the surface.
TenguPhule
Tennessee preacher-cop calls for execution of LGBTQ people
SiubhanDuinne
I am excitedly looking forward to BOTH NIGHTS of debates. But then, I’ve said all along that I really welcome our huge, unruly crowd of candidates. Unlike a lot of Dems who think it demonstrates splintering or weakness, I think the fact that we have numbers in respectable double digits signifies our strength and diversity. Except for Wilmer and Tulsi (#brokenglass), I’d be okay with anyone at Table 1 or Table 2 winning primaries and ultimately the Dem nomination. Whoever it is, she will be great!
Plato
DNC chair. Wonder how much that gig pays. And is it worth it?
jk
@Villago Delenda Est:
Don’t forget to leave a seat on that rocketship for Uncle Joe. He supported the Iraq war, he’s always favored banks over consumers, and his treatment of Anita Hill was disgraceful. He’s a gaffe gushering dope and, like Sanders, he’s too fucking old for this job.
TenguPhule
Trump’s War on Intelligence intensifies.
Dorothy A. Winsor
It would take a lot to make me actually watch these debates. I’ll find a live blog someplace and keep track that way.
“Pergola” is a funny looking word.
Martin
@TenguPhule: Who does preacher-cop think should conduct these executions? I’m guessing cop-preacher.
NotMax
@Adam L.Silverman
Revive the pepperbox?
;)
Jeffro
@West of the Rockies: The DNC should have just said “the top eight candidates” via whatever mix of measures (donations, polls, number of supporters). Thank you very much for playing, candidates #9-23, we will be sure to keep you in mind when it’s time to pick a Veep and/or Cabinet.
Whatever. No one is paying attention, nor should they, until after Labor Day.
O. Felix Culpa
@West of the Rockies:
Actually, not a bad guy. He should run for Senate to replace Cory Gardner, though. He’d have a decent chance of winning. I don’t get the ego of these multitudes of not-terrible and yet not-terribly-distinguished white guys who think THEY have the magic something that should make them preznit.
Villago Delenda Est
@Baud: Ah. OK. Well, I don’t trust Chuck; he IS a Senator from New York, and Warren does scare the living bejesus out of the parasites of Wall Street.
O. Felix Culpa
@Plato:
No.
Gin & Tonic
I read where the State of NY has eliminated religious exemptions to vaccination. Good. Now the only way out is a medical exemption (i.e. immunocompromised.)
Gin & Tonic
@TenguPhule: Maybe I’ll send them a penny. Every bit helps. I’m sure they’ll appreciate the donation, no?
Dan B
@Adam L Silverman: If Mrs. Charles Lamb gets to Trump nuking the moon might become reality.
She was the corporate raider’s wife who wanted to detonate an A Bomb over Lake Erie for the sesquicentennial festivities. The mistake over the lake…
But what’s so wrong about a little, or biggliest evah!, blockade?
chopper
you know what we haven’t had in a while? a TBU.
Dan B
@TenguPhule: It’s the fault of the qu**rs that keep pushing Pride Month down our throats! They must be stopped so we don’t have to think about them forcing their perversions down our throats!
Jim Parish
@Adam L Silverman: “Without mathematics, there’s nothing you can do. Everything around you is mathematics. Everything around you is numbers.”
–Shakuntala Devi
(I only know that quote because I play a lot of Civilization VI.)
jl
One thing is clear, there was no excellent way to arrange the debates 1A and 1B that would please many people.
I agree with some commenters above that the networks will flack the heck out of the first debate, I think Warren will far outshine the others in 1A for those who watch the whole thing, and probably (only ‘probably’ since it’s hard to tell what the media will do) be more prominent in the news coverage of the debate, which far more people will see.
Another good point is that the strongest progressives on pure policy (Harris, Sanders and Warren) will be represented both nights. Hopefully Harris can fill in some details and explanation to go with Sanders just repeating things he’s said many times before. And Harris will be at one, and Warren will be at another, and I think each is essential for a good debate.
I don’t have time to read every comment carefully, but two things to remember. First there will be six (6) debates before 2020. Wiki says only four (4), Warren, Buttigieg, Harris and Sanders are known to have already qualified for all of the first three. So we are guaranteed to see a lot more of Warren and Harris.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Dear Algebra,
Please stop asking us to find your X,
She left, you know Y.
Jay
@Dan B:
Is that projection, a wish, or just fantasy?
Sab
@Mary G: Tim Ryan is my Congresscritter. I can’t stand him because he used to be anti-abortion and has an A rating from the NRA, but he’s actually quite bright, a good debater and pretty far left on most issues. I am looking forward to Warren being on the same night with him.
James E Powell
Who the F are these people? I’m a Democrat. I think about strategy. And I think all this bullshit about what night candidates appear on for the first of what promises to be too many debates is like the people who grade the NFL draft right after the picks. They don’t know dick about diddly, but there are always some shitheads in the press/media whose chosen narrative needs the support of some unnamed sources.
TenguPhule
@Jay: Delete your account. //
plato
Procopius
@jl: I’m so old I remember when a debate was between two teams, or maybe two individuals, and there was a Resolution posted before hand, which one team was trying to “prove” and the other was trying to “contradict.” The Lincoln-Douglas debates come to mind. I know language changes over time, and I’m just being reactionary when I object to the language of my childhood being used in alien ways, but I can’t even.
TenguPhule
@Gin & Tonic: But now we have to worry about Mumps. Because Trump’s goons haven’t connected the dots between overcrowded detention facilities and communicable diseases.
jl
Sorry, I forgot item two, which is my view of what this first dog and pony show will be. So, internet says for average hour show, 42 minutes taken up with commercial breaks. Then suppose the media news divas asking questions will take between 10 and 30 percent of the remaining time preaching, tendentiously presuppositioning, and asking questions, So, over 2 hours, each candidate gets to talk for 6 to 8 minutes.
Even if the shit show were commercial free, each candidate would talk for 8 to 11 minutes.
OK, so now say at least five topics, so between 1 and 2 minutes on each topic.
If they are going to have opening and closing statements, that means even less time.
So, we’ll be lucky if they don’t resort to GOP primary gimmicks like a show of hands on several issues.
Nothing much more than a couple of soundbites will come out of it, whether you watch the whole thing or just see the news highlights. And the news highlights will boil down to which candidate’s soundbites will be chosen.
The thing is going to be a glorified group soundbite and photo op availability.
Maybe a good political consultant will be focusing on getting the candidate to just get out one of the best soundbites, and hope it makes the news?
NotMax
@Jim Parish
Cue up Tom Lehrer. Or even Tom Lehrer.
NotMax
@Procopius
So old can remember when a podium was something one stood upon, not stood behind.
;)
Jim Parish
@NotMax: I teach a course in the history of mathematics every spring. When I get to the development of non-Euclidean geometry, I always sing a couple of lines from Lobachevsky.
Jay
If you are wondering why Blackburn blocked the FIRE Act,
She was on the Treason Tribble Transition Team, and:
https://www.alternet.org/2019/06/why-marsha-blackburn-fell-on-a-grenade-for-donald-trump/
ola azul
@Procopius:
De-bait: Both-sidesing hot-takes about who’s up and who’s down by chattering televised nitwits, ghouls, kept-men and provocateurs who think criminality corruption and treason is HI-larious, yo!
ola azul
@NotMax:
Mind you don’t rile Hannibal Lectern.
MomSense
I wish you could all come hang out in my living room right now. We’ve got snacks, a dog, and the best live music.
I signed up to host a debate watch party for the Harris campaign.
schrodingers_cat
@Jim Parish: I may have asked you this before, but what book do you use?
Mnemosyne
So I appear to have picked a hotel that is across the street from a park that is Ground Zero for Portland’s homeless problem. Yikes. I think this is worse than the last time I was in San Francisco. ?
O. Felix Culpa
@plato: One of the congresscritters (D-wonderful) from my state told us that sometimes T administration people give them reports in wingdings in response to Congressional requests for information. Could you imagine if the Obama administration, etc.
Martin
@jl: Yeah, honestly they need to limit this to one topic. Election reform, or healthcare, or some top tier party issue with the moderators able to explore the topic space. Next debate tackle a different one. As the field thins, they can switch to 20 questions.
Jay
https://www.revealnews.org/article/inside-hate-groups-on-facebook-police-officers-trade-racist-memes-conspiracy-theories-and-islamophobia/
Jim Parish
@schrodingers_cat: Eves, An Introduction to the History of Mathematics, 6th edition. It’s a little bit outdated, but we barely make it into the 20th century anyway, so…
West of the Rockies
@O. Felix Culpa:
I did not give a yooge amount of thought to my comment… Mostly I was making the point that of the 20+ people running as Dems, half aren’t very realistic candidates. Bennett, Hickenlooper may be serious people and worthy of serious consideration. Williamson? de Blasio? Nah…
zhena gogolia
@Mnemosyne:
My husband is there right now and has been complaining of the same thing.
I’m sorry he’s too shy to come to the meetup!
Brachiator
@jl:
Wilmer is going to sound bite the shit out of the debate.
And however the debates turn out, more news media time will be given to Trump’s Twitter reactions.
SRW1
The DNC should have consulted FIFA about that drawing lots thing so that favorites don’t meet in the preliminaries.
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: Terribly designed weapon.
Jay
@Mnemosyne:
You’ll be out of Portland by the weekend of the 29th right?
Patriot Prayer and other Nazi’s are currently planning a violent riot and street actions for that weekend.
Mnemosyne
@zhena gogolia:
The hotel clerk gave me a heads-up when I called about something last week. It sounds like it’s a relatively recent problem, but yikes!
I think that all of the ongoing construction/remodeling is not helping. It gives people places to hang out that they wouldn’t normally have available to them.
MomSense
@Mnemosyne:
Sounds like my workplace.
Hope you are enjoying it nonetheless.
Mnemosyne
@Jay:
Yep, I leave on Sunday. My cohort is folks who are in town for Pride Weekend.
Procopius
@Another Scott: 508 days is a long time. [not really sure my count is exactly right, but it’s still a year and a half].
Brachiator
@MomSense:
Very cool. I hope you will have time to post some of your observations, and those of other debate watchers.
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L Silverman: huh, good to know.
MomSense
@Brachiator:
That’s a good idea. I get text messages from the campaign just about every day – a real person not automated.
Matt McIrvin
@Jim Parish: I think you need to give every possibility an additional weighting factor accounting for the number of different ways to assign the other 15 candidates into the two groups. That would be n!/((k!) (n-k)!) where n=15 and k=the number of minor-candidate slots on the first night.
But that number is larger if the split of the big 5 is more even. There are 3003 possibilities for the other 15 if the big 5 are all on the same night; 5005 possibilities if the big 5 are split 1 and 4; and 6435 possibilities if the big 5 are split 2 and 3. So that makes the probability of a 1-4 split… hmm, not very different from what you calculated, anyway, since the 1-4 split is the most average case.
Brachiator
@Jim Parish:
Nobody told me that there would be math in this thread.
Adam L Silverman
@plato: Definitely an accidental death. Nothing suspicious at all.
Jim Parish
@Matt McIrvin: In any case, that calculation is moot, because that’s not how the DNC did it. They split the candidates into two groups according to polling averages, allotted the ten more popular candidates evenly and the ten less popular evenly. So the question is what fraction of the top-ten allotments split the top five one-and-four, which (if I calculated correctly) is about one-seventh.
Adam L Silverman
@Procopius: I think they should just put them all in a cage, drop a bunch of weapons in the center, and whomever emerges gets to take on the President. And the presidency is decided the same way. Two go in, one comes out.
Adam L Silverman
@jl:
You’ve obviously never watched the Rachel Maddow show. The other night she had Kamala Harris on and did the first 45 minutes as a deep dive into the name Kamala. Then a commercial break. And then she started her interview.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: She’s also tied to that nebbish who Butina was sleeping with.
Jay
@Brachiator:
There was math in the pergola thread, as well.
Adam L Silverman
@Brachiator: I would pay good money to see him, in that horrendous Brooklyn accent, a roast turkey with chopped liver and schmaltz on marble rye with a cream soda. Every time I talk all I can think is “it’s the old guy from Brooklyn at the deli who yells because he’s hard of hearing and he’s finally going to order”.
plato
@Adam L Silverman: It’s all a blackout death.
Aleta
Tom Lehrer – Wernher von Braun – with intro
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: It all depends on caliber and the make of the revolver. Five and six shot revolvers are standard. The bigger the revolver, including the larger the barrel, the more likely you are to have six or more chambers in the cylinder. With the exception of .22lr, .22 WinMag, or .17 lr or .17 HMR, which are very small bullets, so you almost always see an eight shot minimum cylinder regardless of the size of the gun.
plato
frank fucking gardner – ‘security expert’ of bbc.
Opener
Closer
Matt McIrvin
@Jim Parish: I see, so it’s really about sorting ten candidates into two equal groups, rather than 20.
I get just under one-fifth, then. There are 2 ways to sort 10 candidates to get all of the big 5 on one night, 50 combinations that split the big 5 1-4, and 200 that split them 2-3, so the probability of a 1-4 split is 50/252. That’s assuming the ordering of the candidates within a group doesn’t matter, and maybe that’s not how they did it…
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
One less shot than cylinder capactity, you are supposed to carry with the closed hammer on an empty chamber. That way a fall, a strike on the hammer, and nobody get’s shot.
So 6 chambers, 5 shots.
Of course, if you are shooting, you can reload with 6.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay:
Really not an issue with most modern revolvers.
Aleta
This well-scrubbed day ought to be no worse than any—
Will it? Far to the east, down in the pink sky, something has just sparked, very brightly. A new star, nothing less noticeable. He leans on the parapet to watch. The brilliant point has already become a short vertical white line. It must be somewhere out over the North Sea . . . at least that far . . . icefields below and a cold smear of sun. . . .
What is it? Nothing like this ever happens. But Pirate knows it, after all. He has seen it in a film, just in the last fortnight . . . it’s a vapor trail. Already a finger’s width higher now. But not from an airplane. Airplanes are not launched vertically. This is the new, and still Most Secret, German rocket bomb.
“Incoming mail.” Did he whisper that, or only think it? He tightens the ragged belt of his robe. Well, the range of these things is supposed to be over 200 miles. You can’t see a vapor trail 200 miles, now, can you.
Oh. Oh, yes: around the curve of the Earth, farther east, the sun over there, just risen over in Holland, is striking the rocket’s exhaust, drops and crystals, making them blaze clear across the sea. . . .
The white line, abruptly, has stopped its climb. That would be fuel cutoff, end of burning, what’s their word . . . Brennschluss. We don’t have one. Or else it’s classified. The bottom of the line, the original star, has already begun to vanish in red daybreak. But the rocket will be here before Pirate sees the sun rise.
The trail, smudged, slightly torn in two or three directions, hangs in the sky. Already the rocket, gone pure ballistic, has risen higher. But invisible now.
Oughtn’t he to be doing something . . . get on to the operations room at Stanmore, they must have it on the Channel radars—no: no time, really. Less than five minutes Hague to here (the time it takes to walk down to the teashop on the corner . . . for light from the sun to reach the planet of love . . . no time at all). Run out in the street? Warn the others?
Pick bananas. He trudges through black compost in to the hothouse. He feels he’s about to shit. The missile, sixty miles high, must be coming up on the peak of its trajectory by now . . . beginning its fall . . . now. . . .
Trusswork is pierced by daylight, milky panes beam beneficently down. How could there be a winter—even this one—gray enough to age this iron that can sing in the wind, or cloud these windows that open into another season, however falsely preserved?
Pirate looks at his watch. Nothing registers. The pores of his face are prickling. Emptying his mind—a Commando trick—he steps into the wet heat of his bananery, sets about picking the ripest and the best, holding up the skirt of his robe to drop them in. Allowing himself to count only bananas, moving barelegged among the pendulous bunches, among these yellow chandeliers, this tropical twilight. . . .
Out into the winter again. The contrail is gone entirely from the sky. Pirate’s sweat lies on his skin almost as cold as ice.
He takes some time lighting a cigarette. He won’t hear the thing come in. It travels faster than the speed of sound. The first news you get of it is the blast. Then, if you’re still around, you hear the sound of it coming in.
What if it should hit exactly—ahh, no—for a split second you’d have to feel the very point, with the terrible mass above, strike the top of the skull. . . .
Pirate hunches his shoulders, bearing his bananas down the corkscrew ladder.
Across a blue tile patio, in through a door to the kitchen. Routine: plug in American blending machine won from Yank last summer, some poker game, table stakes, B.O.Q. somewhere in the north, never remember now. . . . Chop several bananas into pieces. Make coffee in urn. Get can of milk from cooler. Puree ’nanas in milk. Lovely. I would coat all the booze-corroded stomachs of England. . . .
Bit of marge, still smells all right, melt in skillet. Peel more bananas, slice lengthwise. Marge sizzling, in go long slices. Light oven whoomp blow us all up someday oh, ha, ha, yes. Peeled whole bananas to go on broiler grill soon as it heats. Find marshmallows. . . .
In staggers Teddy Bloat with Pirate’s blanket over his head, slips on a banana peel and falls on his ass. “Kill myself,” he mumbles.
“The Germans will do it for you. Guess what I saw from the roof.”
“That V-2 on the way?”
“A4, yes.”
“I watched it out the window. About ten minutes ago. Looked queer, didn’t it. Haven’t heard a thing since, have you. It must have fallen short. Out to sea or something.”
“Ten minutes?” Trying to read the time on his watch.
“At least.” Bloat is sitting on the floor, working the banana peel into a pajama lapel for a boutonniere.
Pirate goes to the phone and rings up Stanmore after all. Has to go through the usual long, long routine, but knows he’s already stopped believing in the rocket he saw. God has plucked it for him, out of its airless sky, like a steel banana. “Prentice here, did you have anything like a pip from Holland a moment ago. Aha. Aha. Yes, we saw it.” This could ruin a man’s taste for sunrises. He rings off.
“They lost it over the coast. They’re calling it premature Brennschluss.”
“Cheer up,” Teddy crawling back toward the busted cot. “There’ll be more.”
Good old Bloat, always the positive word. Pirate for a few seconds there, waiting to talk to Stanmore, was thinking, Danger’s over, Banana Breakfast is saved. But it’s only a reprieve. Isn’t it. There will indeed be others, each just as likely to land on top of him. No one either side of the front knows exactly how many more. Will we have to stop watching the sky?
Matt McIrvin
@Aleta: Thinking about Poisson distributions?
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Theoretically not a problem with any modern firearm,
And yet, bozo’s get shot by their own weapons falling, crossing fences, dropping their gun, by their toddlers, by their dogs.
The only true safety is an empty chamber.
cokane
Might just be my relentless optimism, but I think it worked out pretty well for Warren. The first night and the only big name on the stage. She’ll likely outshine anyone else that evening.
tobie
I think the roster for night one has the policy heavy weights in the race. Beto has issued fewer policy proposals than Warren but the ones he has on immigration, electoral reform, and climate change are far more detailed. And then you have Inslee’s expertise on climate change, Castro’s on immigration, Booker’s on gun control, and Klobuchar’s on infrastructure and addiction–all this could lead to a really interesting discussion that highlights what Democrats want to do to address problems in the US and abroad. Night two may turn out to be more of a slugfest.
Ramalama
@MomSense: Please tell me if someone shows up wearing a cape. That would make it perfect.
john fremont
@TenguPhule: It will Clint Eastwood redux, Trump will yell at a chair!