Thanks, once more, to commentor Tony Jay:
PRE-BREXIT BLUE-ON-BLUE EDITION
Rum doings on this side of the Atlantic, as the race to succeed Theresa May (the only time you’ll see those three words strung together in any sentence format) as supreme leader of the Conservative Party and (possibly, probably, maybe not, we’ll see how things shake out) Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, descended into ugly levels of sleezy farce. Last week the final round of votes by Conservative Members of Parliament saw unpalatable class-war stereotype Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson sail into the final heat with almost three times as many votes as his nearest rival, Foreign Secretary Jeremy ‘The Big C’ Hunt, much to the chagrin of Johnson’s erstwhile friend and humanoid mole-creature Michael Gove, who had been two votes ahead of Hunt in the previous round and already prepping the release of numerous ‘anonymous’ leaks from his period working with Johnson on the (Lying Like Bastards for) Leave side of the 2016 referendum campaign to discombobulate the owl-faced Heir Presumptive when news of his third place finish (and automatic expulsion from the leadership race) came splatting down like a hammer made of bad faith and broken dreams. Suspicions abounded that Johnson supporters had been sneakily organised to artificially boost Hunt’s tally and ensure that Gove paid the price for back-stabbing Eton’s Shame on the eve of the last leadership election three years ago, but the scandal didn’t gain much traction because, well, what’s wrong with a bit of tactical voting? These are Tory MPs we’re talking about, it’s hardly the worst thing any of them have ever done, it’s probably not even the worst thing most of them did that day.Speaking of which….
In the early hours of Friday morning neighbours of Johnson’s partner, Carrie Symonds, a former Head of Press for the Tory Party with whom he’s basically been living since leaving his wife and family (feel the quality of those ‘values’) were taking delivery of a fast-food order when they were disturbed by a veritable humdinger of a row taking place in Symonds’ flat, during which there was slamming and banging and things being broken, along with the sound of Symonds screaming at her other half to “Get off me!” and “Get out of my flat”, apparently furious with the infamously slobbish Johnson for spilling red wine on her couch and generally being a spoilt bastard who didn’t give a toss about domestic hygiene. Now, anyone worried that poor old Johnson might have inadvertently kowtowed to the feminazi agenda at this point will be happy to know that he gave as good as he got, demanding that Symonds calm down and leave his fucking laptop alone. (PronHub alert!!!) Upon hearing a loud scream and after going down on three separate occasions to knock on the door (no response) the neighbours called the police, who sent around a couple of vans full of armed bastards, but were soon heading back to the station after being assured that all was well and nobody was actually being choked or strangled or beaten to death with a bottle of Penfolds Grange, because, you know, posh Tories, white privilege and forelock tugging go together like cheese and toast in our neck of the woods.
This is where it gets all conspiratorial and familiar. The neighbour who called through the initial complaint had recorded some of the racket and contacted the Guardian to let them know that Boris had questions to answer. Attempts by the Guardian to confirm events with the Police ran into a bit of an Establishment roadblock, though, as the boys and girls in Blue denied any knowledge of the row, despite the Guardian having the address, time, incident reference and Police officer ID numbers. No, Sir. Nothing to report, Sir. Which is kind of against all of the rules laid down for handling Press enquiries. It wasn’t until they provided the licence plates and vehicle numbers of the vans involved and, I don’t know, the star sign and maiden name of whoever was handling dispatch duty that morning, that suddenly the dam broke and confirmation was received. How massively not suspicious in the least, eh?
Now, don’t get me wrong here. People row. That’s who we are, especially when we’re in stressful situations and some entitled walrus spills red wine on the couch/finds you spaffing off to Naughty Butlers clips on your laptop. Even Tories are allowed to have private lives, though, obviously, it would be absolutely hunky-dory if more of them kept children, animals and ritual sacrificial knives out of them. I don’t like it when the Press sticks its sticky little stick of a snout in there grubbing around for scandal, but that’s not what happened here. The Police turning up in the early hours of the morning to check whether the prohibitive favourite to be our next PM was murdering (or being murdered by) his girlfriend is a legitimate news story, and more to the point, not only are concerned neighbours calling the Police to investigate when it appears such fears might be a plausible concern absolutely the right thing to do, recording audio of the incident for use in a potential court-case is smart and would very likely be instrumental in cutting through the obfuscations of your average domestic abuser’s ‘He said/She said’ defence.What civilised person could possibly disagree with that, enquired Major Snark of the 3rd Light Sarcasm Dragoons?
The problem here, in the great tradition of the cover-up being worse than the crime, is in how the British Right chose to respond. The next day the story was all over the news, as you’d expect, but never fear, Operation ‘Don’t You Think Political Correctness Has Gone Maaaaad?’ was soon dispatching Johnson’s surrogates all over the airwaves to attack, attack, attack and smear the neighbours in a manner which will be very, very familiar to you Norteamericanos, but which we naïve Old Country types haven’t previously seen deployed in such a hyper-partisan way. They were “left-wing snoopers”, ‘Corbynista curtain-twitchers’, ‘theatrical luvies’ (i.e. pawns of the homosexy agenda), and even compared to the Stasi by one absolute charmer. The Telegraph (for whom Johnson is still a very well-paid columnist) dug up the shocking revelation that the wife of the neighbour had once swore at Johnson in the street, and that he and all of his friends were (brace yourselves) shameless Remoaners. Coverage in Murdoch’s grimy little tabloid shitrag The Sun (spit) was rapidly veering towards an outright denial that anything untoward had taken place, while the tape of the incident was obviously a Fake News construct concocted by Venezuelan secret-police as part of an anti-democratic hit-piece on Sir Boris of Brexit, but then all of Symonds’ other neighbours came forward to back up the initial reporting, which tripped up this angle of attack and caused a back-scuttle of human centipede proportions. Undaunted Johnson’s defenders circled back around to condemning all of the neighbours for ‘spying’ on their man, and no less an authority in neighbourly conduct than the until recently incorporeal shade of long-buried evil known as Jacob Rees-Mogg (nearest neighbour 12.3 miles beyond the Forbidden Wood which encircles his dark estate) went on Radio 4 to declare that the Christian thing to do in the event of hearing a woman screaming at a man to “Get off her” was to turn up the volume on ‘Songs of Praise’, mind your own bloody business, and let the man deal with his woman as God intended.
Now, you’d think that Johnson’s rival for the Tory leadership would be licking his lips and huddled over kitchen tables with his unofficial Cabinet gaming out the best way to exploit this humungous own goal by Team Boris, wouldn’t you? Sadly, you’d only be partly right. Poor old Jeremy Hunt has had his own scandal to deal with. On Thursday the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Phillip ‘Fuck Boris’ Hammond was due to give the annual Mansion House speech to the great and the good of the City of London when, as has become de rigueur, it was interrupted by a very nicely dressed contingent of Greenpeace activists out to draw attention to Britain’s crappy environmental record and the vast, existential threat of global climate change. All well and good, you’d think. Everyone was polite, short speeches were read, and there was even a smattering of applause. How very civilised.
But, uh oh, what’s this? A single Greenpeace protestor in a delightful red off the shoulder number attempted to sneak around the other side of the audience. Presumably she was planning to assault the Chancellor with the very many sharp-edged leaflets she had in her open purse, or perhaps perturb him with an organic courgette in the name of Militant Veganism, but she was stopped in her tracks by Tory MP, junior Foreign Office minister and Hunt campaign official Mark Field, who grabbed her by the neck, slammed her face first into a marble column, and frog marched her out of the door under the shocked, horrified, but ultimately completely static eye of every other fucker there. You can see the footage yourself online, it’s pretty ugly, and will be all too familiar to any woman who’s had to deal with the casual violence of the Furrier Sex. By a happy coincidence one of Field’s roles as a Hunt deputy at the Foreign Office has been to handle Britain’s response to the Chinese Government’s treatment of protestors in Hong Kong, calling for investigations into their officials’ “inappropriate use of force”. Oooh, Alanis would have loved this one.
Now, in comparison to the ‘Johnson Row’ response, Field himself was suspended the following morning and his pitiful whining about “feeling threatened” didn’t last very long, presumably because Hunt got on the phone and told him to apologise and then shut the fucking hell up ASAP. But the media misdirection campaign, ah, that was a different matter and suspiciously similar in tone and theme. Tory MPs and professional mouthpieces for the Second Counter-Reformation (Motto – “It’s a Straight White Conservative Christian Man’s World, Let’s Keep It That Way”) vomited out of the gates with salvos of pre-scripted bullshit. She could have been a terrorist! It was a citizen’s arrest! What about protestors evicted from television studios, eh? Was that assault too, Comrade Journalist? The response of the British Media was also the same. Baffled confusion, stuttering repetition of “With the greatest of respect…” when trying to counter crimson-faced projection and openly disrespectful accusations of media bias. Like red-shirted movie characters confronted with their beloved household pet turned into a rabid flesh-eating zombie, they just couldn’t process the change in the dynamic and huddled up in foetal balls of denial, waiting for the violence to pass and looking forward to the inevitable letter of private apology, handwritten on expensive stationary and without a shadow of a doubt expressing genuine contrition. After all, these people went to the right school and ate at the right restaurants, they couldn’t really mean what they were saying… could they?
All in all, an absolutely terrific week for the Conservative Party and Britain in general, I’m sure you’ll agree. So terrific that it’s overshadowed even the timed-like-clockwork ‘revelations’ of division on the Labour benches over how to handle the last few spasms of Brexit. The sheer scale of the misogyny and the vehemence of its defenders has been so loud everything else has been drowned out. It’s still Boris Johnson’s race to lose, of course. His policy of keeping his head down and leaving the Tory membership to justify his bullshit to themselves without his input has served him well. A double-digit majority of crazy right-wing bellends – still – consider him to be the more trustworthy and capable candidate, but outside the Base Bubble the hits just keep on coming. His former employer (and impeccably connected former Editor of the Telegraph and London Evening Standard) Max Hastings has described him as “unfit for national office, because it seems he cares for no interest save his own fame and gratification”. Jeremy Hunt has emerged from behind his couch and decided that lambasting his rival for “cowardice” in ducking 99% of Press interviews and televised debates while accusing him of attempting to “slink in by the back door” is the way to go. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, the Bank of England, and even bought-and-paid-for pro-American billionaire lobbyist and cork-brained shill for naked capitalism Liam Fox, who is also our International Development Secretary, have all criticised his lies about GAT-24 (transparent bullshit about tariff agreements making the Northern Irish border a non-issue that only the Brextremists even pretend to believe) and labelled his entire Brexit plan “pie in the sky”. The EU have (once again) helpfully reminded the British Government and Media that, regardless of what promises anyone makes, there’s not going to be a renegotiation or even an extension to the October 31st deadline for agreeing a withdrawal deal without a General Election or a new Referendum. Tory Remainers are floating great, big neon signs advertising their willingness to vote against any prospective Johnson-led Government in a No Confidence vote, and even big money Tory donors are starting to mumble that maybe Boris isn’t all dat and shit.
What a wonderful time to be alive. (eyeroll)
Will any of this spike Johnson’s long climb to Absolute Power? Nah, probably not. He’s got the bulk of the Tory membership wrapped around his pudgy little finger and Jeremy Hunt is too much of a bloodless technocrat in the mould of Theresa May to inspire any kind of energised counter-offensive. The man got where he is today by fucking up his ministerial briefs in ways that profit the right people, not by building a constituency amongst the hoi polloi of local Conservative clubs, most of whom have bought hook, line and sinker into the Deep Myth of a ‘clean Brexit’ leading to a White Free State bestriding the Atlantic like a tweet-suited, tea-drinking colossus. It would take something very special indeed for them to lose their faith in Boris’ essential qualities of bumbling failure and self-serving deceit greasing the way to their Brexiteerian promised land.
OTOH, all of this can’t be doing much for Johnson’s other claim to relevance, namely his public personae as ‘Boris’ being a draw for middle of the road floating voters who only go by what the headlines say and can be expected to plump for “that funny blond toff from the telly” over Comrade Corbyn and the New Holocaust Party in any future General Election. What sells to the Church of the Blue Moonies (half of whom are quite open about never wanting a Muslim PM) won’t necessarily go over quite as well to Joe and June Bloggs of Dagenham, however much ‘economic anxiety’ they might have about brown boys in hoodies and women in burkhas. When ‘character’ stops being a selling point in politics all you have left is enthusiasm and policy, and the Tories have to be shitting bricks of jagged obsidian at the prospect of waging an electoral war on that kind of battlefield.
That’s it. Back to your regularly scheduled programme of Trumpian volk-stroking and international willy-waving. We’ll be over here feeing comparable levels of shame and ignominy.
rikyrah
Do they pretend that they are the party of ‘family values’ like the GOP does over here?
Thanks for the 4-1-1, Tony Jay.
Mart
The Lionesses are bringing glory back to England – along with Brexit. God save the Queen!
(Do enjoy your rants.)
Fair Economist
This is hysterical! Better than the political humour columns getting published in the Guardian.
MattF
We’re in Classic Farce territory. Where’s the French housemaid in frilly underwear? Oooh la la!!!
Origuy
Thanks, Tony. At least here in the USA we have a few sane people with a chance at leading the country. Labour doesn’t seem interested in actually being any better than the Tories.
Oh, and it cannot be said often enough: Don’t Buy the Sun!
Betty Cracker
“Corbynista curtain-twitchers” is a keeper! ;)
TenguPhule
@Origuy:
Labour can’t do anything until they form a government.
Does nobody disparaging Labour look at the fucking voting map for MPs? There’s a reason why Corbyn has had to straddle that fence for so long.
Doug R
Ya know, if Corbyn wasn’t actively sabotaging the Remain campaign from within, he’d have a really good chance at being the next PM.
Tony Jay
@rikyrah:
Not to anything like the same extent. There was a point in the early 90’s when John Major’s Tory Government sort of tried to wheel out the morality cannon with their “Back to Basics” policy, but that soon went down under a firehose of Tory sex and corruption scandals.
There’s a reason the stereotype of the Tory MP with stockings and suspenders on under his smart suit and either a Mistress or a rent-boy or both in a subsidised flat around the corner from Parliament is so prevalent. The verisimilitude is so strong.
Keith P.
@rikyrah: iirc they kicked most of the Puritans out.
TenguPhule
@Doug R:
JFC, this is “Butt her Emails” territory now. Look at the British electoral map and you explain where the fuck Labour is supposed to get enough MPs to form a government without any Brexit supporting districts.
Martin
I must confess, the whole PM race reminds me of Monty Python’s Upper Class Twit of the Year sketch.
TenguPhule
@Tony Jay: Also pig’s heads. Allegedly.
Chetan Murthy
*snort*
Paul T
I hardly know what this guy is talking about, but I love the gonzo approach to his journalism. Thanks for posting these.
TenguPhule
/Sob
Brachiator
Wait. What?
My understanding is this (from BBC News):
So, the Tory candidates and Parliament all have their heads up their British arses and insist on a fantasy. Parliament previously voted down May’s agreement, but also voted that the UK should not leave the EU without a deal.
But
The only deal is May’s deal. The EU will not accept any changes to the deal and has said that they will not renegotiate.
A new general election will not change this. A new referendum will not change this.
The UK could revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU. No leader has offered this as a possibility.
Corbyn has been asked by some of his people to openly and clearly embrace Remain. He has not done so and is unlikely to do so. This may be smart political strategy, but it doesn’t do squat to resolve BREXIT or to mobilize support behind any solution to the problem.
Again, at best Labour seems to be suggesting that they will better preside over a post BREXIT UK than the Tories.
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson is a Bizarro Donald Trump. Jeremy Hunt is a greatly more incompetent Mike Pence.
The UK is phucked.
Tony Jay
@Doug R:
Can we not do this tired old dog and pony act again? There is no Remain campaign, and there won’t be until there’s legislation passed to have a new referendum, and that won’t happen until there’s a Labour Government, and that’s not going to happen until there’s a General Election, and that’s not going to happen unless there’s a No Confidence vote in Parliament, and that’s not going to happen if the Labour Party is tearing itself to pieces over policies it CAN NOT TURN INTO LAW while it’s The Opposition.
It’s like dragging on Nancy Pelosi for not making Impeachment happen NOW or Obama for just not trying haaaarrrd enough to make Single Payer happen back in 2009. Until they have the votes and the Party behind them it’s all just so much genital stimulation and purity posing, not politics.
But that’s just my opinion. YMMV
Baud
@TenguPhule:
Weren’t you going on about LEADERSHIP yesterday when it came to Pelosi?
TenguPhule
@Brachiator:
Labour can’t stop article 50 unless they’re the government.
Labour can’t become the government if they openly state they’d revoke article 50. The electoral map is clear on that. Too many Brexit supporting MP districts.
Immanentize
@Tony Jay: Does the Labour Party stand for remainin in the EU?
I know what Nancy Pelosi stands for and although futile, she works towards those goals.
So, does the Labour Party stand for — and work towards — remaining in the EU?
Brachiator
@TenguPhule:
But Labour hasn’t even suggested what they want to do. They keep saying, “We’re Labour. Trust us.” Lame.
This UK based commenter thinks that Labour is shooting themselves in the foot by not firmly backing Remain.
https://youtu.be/cmmkfYlQJmw
Immanentize
@Baud: Don’t look in that direction for consistency of logic.
TenguPhule
@Baud: Speaker of the House in the USA has a lot more power then Opposition leader in British House of Commons.
And Speaker Pelosi doesn’t have one third of the Democratic House Caucus openly plotting against her to at literally every opportunity to the point of reopening a challenge to her position as Speaker of the House in the middle of Trump’s Concentration Camps.
Tony Jay
@Brachiator:
Well yeah, just sticking a new and even more delusional Tory head on the end of the pike isn’t going to change a thing, but there was reporting last week that the EU’s position was that only a serious change in Britain’s political make-up (such as a General Election or a new referendum) would convince the EU to agree a further extension, and it would take a new Government with a strong majority and/or a new post-Referendum mandate to drop most of the Red Lines and allow the possibility of a new withdrawal agreement. May’s WA is the crapfest it is because it’s as far as the EU could go while accommodating her no-go areas.
Given the choice the EU would much rather Britain ditch the whole thing and serve as unarguable proof that leaving the EU is so incredibly stupid and self-destructive for any member state that it just can’t be done. Believe me, I’d be happy to wear that T-Shirt as long as I get to keep my purple passport.
geg6
@Baud:
Heh. Why, yes. Yes, he was.
TenguPhule
@Brachiator:
If I were Labour’s leaders, I wouldn’t trust the general public with that information either.
I mean, look how Boris Johnson’s popularity is shooting up by him not saying anything and the people there should damn well know what he’s like.
Yutsano
@Betty Cracker: I was wondering if that even translated across the pond.
TenguPhule
@Immanentize: Pelosi is House Speaker with a Democratic Majority. Jeremy Corbyn is Leader of the Opposition and Labour does not have a majority of the MPS in the House of Commons.
One has power. Another one doesn’t. There is a *BIG* fucking difference.
Sloane Ranger
You’ve missed out Boris refusing to to rule out proroging Parliament if needed to ensure UK leaves on 31st October and the intra Labour row about the whip being returned to the Labour MP accused of antisemitism.
Thank God for Trump. He makes our disfunction look less like an outlier.
Immanentize
@TenguPhule: So, he is more like Shumer?
Just end my suspense — Is Corbyn for remaining or leaving the EU?
Tony Jay
@Immanentize:
The Labour Party backed Remain in the 2016 Referendum. After Leave won the Labour manifesto for the 2017 Election said it would honour the Referendum BUT it wouldn’t back a Tory Brexit, instead arguing for a much ‘softer’ version that it would negotiate with the EU if given the chance/it could convince the Tories to accept it. The current Labour policy agreed at the Party conference says the same thing, no Tory Brexit, try to negotiate a better withdrawal deal that meets various tests and if that’s not possible (which it’s not) then there’s the possibility of another Public Vote on whether we leave at all.
In the simplest possible terms the vast majority of Labour members are pro Remain, 2/3 to 3/4 of the Parliamentary Party are pro Remain, and something around that number of Labour voters are pro Remain. If the leadership dumps the policy agreed at the Conference and imposes a pro Remain policy by diktat, there’ll be outright civil war on the Labour benches and the real possibility of a huge chunk of Labour voters going Brexit Party in any snap Election.
What would be the point of doing that? What would be gained by smashing the Labour Party to pieces and handing electoral victory to the Brexit extremists? Politically it’s just nonsense, and the only people to benefit would be those same Brexit extremists and the faction within the Labour Party that has always prioritised ousting the current leadership over everything else.
It’s not nice. It’s even a bit cowardly. But it’s politics, and while there’s a Tory Government wedded at the hip to a hard Brexit it’s the only thing that stands a chance of working.
Mary G
This:
made me laugh while eating lunch, inhale a bit of cantaloupe and almost choke myself. Still worth it because so few things make me laugh these days.
Tony Jay
@Sloane Ranger:
Events, dear girl. I wrote this up earlier in the week before Johnson finally started opening his big, fat mouth and before the latest installment of “OMG Jezza Hatez Joos Bingo”.
Brachiator
@Tony Jay:
I have looked, but have not seen anywhere that the EU would consider renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement. Even UK reporters who cover the EU have not got a hint of this from any EU minister.
A new UK prime minister could request an extension, but there is no hint yet that the EU would consider this. Some nations (France) have suggested that they are tired of the UK’s dawdling.
There is the added complication that the EU doesn’t want newly elected BREXIT MEPs causing mischief.
Again, I have not seen anywhere that a change in the UK’s political make-up would change anything. The EU is starting to focus on what they need to do to protect their union.
Also, the UK has a small window in which to get anything done. A new Conservative PM should be chosen by the end of July. Then don’t MPs take time off to visit with constituents or something. So, this leaves 2 months to have a general election, which presumably Labour would win, form a new government and request an extension past October 31. Would this request for an extension also include a request for a renegotiation?
BTW. As it stands now, the only thing that might be changed is the Political Declaration. I don’t know if there is sufficient wiggle room here to include anything that might hold off disaster.
TenguPhule
@Immanentize:
No. Even less power then that.
Literally all Corbyn can do is point out what the government is doing wrong and call for a general election. That’s it, other then his vote as a member of the House of Commons. He has no other power in government and while he can call for a general election, it requires a majority in the House of Commons to pass.
He’s not for leaving. He campaigned for remain. But he also can’t ignore that Labour as a party promised to honor the will of the people who voted to cut their own throats with Brexit. Of course the catch 22 is that the Tory platform consists of “Whatever Corbyn proposes, we hate it, updated hourly”.
Even the leaders of the EU have figured this out, why do you think they’ve met with the man?
Immanentize
@Tony Jay: Thank you! It seems like both Labour and the Conservatives might smash up over this anyway. I get trying to have every possible way at once, but I am not sure these are the moments most suited to that political pragmatism on the biggest issues of the day. Reminds me of the Democrat/Dixiecrat inevitable break.
Immanentize
@TenguPhule: Why do EU leaders seem to care more for the fate of the UK than UK leaders?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Tony Jay: It sounds like Labour is pursuing a “Republican Lite” strategy…we’ll do the same thing as the Tory’s will do, but just less shitty. It doesn’t work on this side of the pond. Folk will vote for the real thing.
Brachiator
@TenguPhule:
But you would expect voters to choose Labour in a new general election just out of party loyalties?
Do you also expect people here to vote for the Democratic Party nominee even if the candidate refused to say whether he or she supported Medicare for All or infrastructure investment or tax increases on the wealthy?
Keith P.
Sweet jeebus, do those Brits know how to overseason their prose or what?
Baud
Maybe the reason Corbyn has so little power is that he previously failed to exercise LEADERSHIP!
Mart
USA 2, France Nil, 77th minute.
TenguPhule
@Immanentize:
The best ending is that UK abandons Article 50 and things go back to relative normal.
The next best alternative is a break that’s not a complete clusterfuck. The EU leaders understand this.
The Tories have Teresa May and Boris Johnson as their decision makers. Nuff said.
DHD
@Tony Jay: By “It’s politics” you mean “It’s politics in a first-past-the-post parliamentary system”, of course.
Kind of like Justin Trudeau simultaneously declaring a climate emergency and approving an oil pipeline, etc, etc.
It’s not promising for the future of humanity when “the worst political system, aside from all the others” seems to have an inherent bias towards massive hypocrisy.
On the other hand, the USA is there to remind us that it could always be worse.
TenguPhule
@Brachiator:
I would hope that British voters, confronted with a choice between “Certain doom” and “Obviously trying his best” to make a rational decision. But then I see that Boris Johnson is probably going to be PM. so –\_(&_&)_/–
Yes.
Mart
Hell of a goal by France on a set play.
TenguPhule
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Labour’s domestic agenda is miles apart from the Tories.
TenguPhule
This season of the Handmaid’s Tale is bloody awful.
Immanentize
@Baud: You tickle my funny bone.
Kent
I really know nothing about all this. But it seems the most likely scenario anymore is a catastrophic crash-out followed by recession and conservative defeat. Then eventual re-joining of the EU as either a full member or Norway-style member in a couple of years after saner heads finally take power.
Plenty of countries have joined the EU over the years. I don’t see anything in the rules that says a country can’t come back and re-join after they have learned their lesson hard and good. And I think that’s what it is going to take with this crop of Brits.
Steeplejack
@Mart:
No spoilers for people who can’t watch the match! Soccer thread downstairs.
Tony Jay
@Brachiator:
The EU have indeed been crystal clear and rock solid in stating that this withdrawal agreement is not going to be reopened or changed as long as THIS Government with THESE negotiating red lines remains in power. There have been plenty of statements and pronouncements from the EU’s representatives to the effect that while they would much prefer to negotiate on different terms, they can and will only negotiate with the UK Government. Respecting national sovereignty in deed, not just word.
A different Tory leader wouldn’t change any of that because it’s the same Government with the same inability to get anything through Parliament, and they’re realistic that any post-May leader is only going to be more of a Brextremist so even hinting at the possibility of renegotiation is a definite diplomatic no-no.
A new General Election or a new Referendum changes everything. It’s a brand new Government with (hopefully) a different view on what kind of withdrawal deal Britain would seek. It’s either hardcore Tory/Brexit Party and a No-Deal disaster, or it’s a Labour Government (possibly in Coalition with the SNP and/or the Lib Dems) and a completely different democratic mandate that the EU is not going to shit all over. There’ll be an extension and an attempt at renegotiation on rational terms with the promise at the end of it of a Public Vote with revoke Article 50 as an option.
Or there won’t be. The other EU states can’t reach consensus on agreeing an extension. It’s No Deal or Revoke. Anything but a Tory/Brexit Government and it’s Revoke. I’ll take that. I’d be fine with that.
prostratedragon
Opening of A Shot in the Dark, with “The Shadows of Paris”. (Yes, that is George Sanders/”Addison DeWitt”.)
?BillinGlendaleCA
@TenguPhule: As far as Leave/Remain goes, it isn’t.
Doug R
@Tony Jay: Does this sound like someone who wants to remain?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/19/labour-mps-warn-corbyn-not-to-commit-to-second-brexit-referendum
Brachiator
@TenguPhule:
Please send me some of the drugs you are taking. The high must be incredible.
Mart
@Steeplejack: oops, did not see it with the cross post.
Tony Jay
@Immanentize:
Yes. Exactly. That’s the analogy I’ve been considering. The tectonic plates are shifting under the British political system as we speak, and this would be so much easier to deal with if Cameron’s stupid fucking Referendum balls-up hadn’t handed the forces of White Power a massive political victory that could destroy the country before anyone else gets a chance to weigh in.
Immanentize
@Tony Jay: I am sorry for your plight. Why must we be so burdened these days?
Ladyraxterinok
@Tony Jay: Well, maybe call up Manning Coles’ Tommy Hambledon? Or Leslie Charteris’ the Saint? They solved UK’s problems quite well.
Immanentize
@Tony Jay: Could B. Johnson oddly lead the country to a “revoke 50” (start again from his pitch)?
TenguPhule
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Brexit is a special type of insanity that unfortunately must be given at least the token appearance of consideration because its supporters are complete morons who unfortunately vote regularly and exist across party lines..
Mary G
O/T but happy news:
And yes, I know polls mean nothing this far out.
TenguPhule
@Kent:
Problem is that it requires no objections from any current members.
Ireland at the very least will probably have something to say on that matter.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@TenguPhule: That’s the same rational for “Republican Lite”.
Tony Jay
@Doug R:
It sounds like someone who wants to put off the day the Party auto-asphyxiates itself until AFTER the Tories split and becoming a cheerleader for Remain actually means something.
There are plenty of Remain cheerleaders in Parliament. Other than demanding that Corbyn clap louder, what exactly is their plan? I’ve yet to hear one that isn’t magical thinking more akin to Wilmer’s “millions of people marching for change” faff than anything realistic.
Tony Jay
@Immanentize:
Because some people are getting rich(er) off it, and a lot of other people like being told it’s all the fault of ‘those’ conveniently different looking and powerless people.
Britney was a prophet. Because we did. We did it again.
Brachiator
@Tony Jay:
Again, I don’t find anything, anywhere that suggests that the EU is open to any changes to the Withdrawal Agreement by a new PM or by a new government and new PM.
The Brits seem to be the tail attempting to wag the dog. All of the machinations to secure a general election and have Labour oust the Tories doesn’t really seem to be relevant to the Withdrawal Agreement.
Also, no one knows whether Corbyn would revoke Article 50. Yes, he campaigned for Remain, but he seemed to be a strong Euroskeptic.
But who knows? The leadership will have 2 months to try to pull themselves out of a disaster. We will see what happens.
Bupalos
A fastastic work, in the key of limey-minor.
SRW1
@TenguPhule:
The UK is split right down the middle and you know how readily folks admit cardinal mistakes.
Besides, the EU is probably better of with this squabbling tribe doing its squabbling outside of the EU. I also suspect the squabbling will continue for years to come. With the only difference that the squabbling will be over who’s fault the consequences of Brexit are instead of Brexit itself.
Yarrow
Saw this tweet a few days ago. Don’t think it would happen, but interesting to think about. Apparently May hinted at it.
I do think the Tory working majority is very narrow. They just lost an MP in Wales who was unseated via petition. By-election is August 1st. Also, they need the DUP, which means the Irish backstop is key, and that is not going to be in place in a hard Brexit.
Tony Jay
@Ladyraxterinok:
On the one hand, those boys are a bit too old school tie for my liking, on the other hand if some husky bearded bloke in armour clip-clopped into view, pulled a sword from a stone and put it straight through the heart of Brexit and the toxic faux-populism it represents, sod it, I’d go full on monarchist right there and then.
Barney
Plus: during his time as Foreign Secretary, Johnson, the most undiplomatic MP there is, was the subject of a fly-on-the-wall BBC documentary. They recorded him calling the French ‘turds’. When Number 10 heard about this, they pressurized the BBC into cutting that from the doc. But now the Daily Mail has revealed it.
And the awful thing is that the Telegraph is probably right to say “Calling the French ‘turds’ will just make Tory members love Boris all the more“.
Tony Jay
@Immanentize:
Vanishingly unlikely. His base in the Party is convinced that sticking two fingers up to the EU will lead to the restoration of the Empire and their elevation to some kind of ‘most favoured race’ status. OTOH, if you mean could his Premiership shatter the Tory Party and lead to a situation where Labour revokes Article 50, that’s possible.
MisterForkbeard
@Mary G: Good to see Harris within 1% of Bernie, though. That warms my heart. Hopefully she can keep the upward movement, though of course she’ll lose some of this bounce over the coming days.
chris
Superb, Tony Jay! But “owl-faced?” Their solicitors, you will be hearing from them. And mind how you go if you’re out after dark.
Yutsano
@Tony Jay: I’mma gonna let you finish, but over here on the other side of the pond The Chairman of Rexxon has words. Bug, beautiful words.
(((CassandraLeo)))
@MisterForkbeard: Fortunately, there will be numerous other debates, and she’s lethal in these. She filleted Biden with surgical precision and I’m sure she’ll be just as impressive in further debates. She’s the real thing – probably the most talented politician in the Democratic Party since Barack Obama, apart from a certain representative from the Bronx who’s unfortunately still too young to run for President.
Thanks for the write-up, Tony. Hilarious as always.
Mandalay
@Brachiator:
Speaking of which….
Steve in the ATL
@MisterForkbeard: @(((CassandraLeo))): remember, lawyers are the best people!
Barr and the SCOTUS 5 are the exceptions that prove the rule.
Tony Jay
@Brachiator:
Of that we can be sure. 8-)
Another Scott
@Origuy: From your link.
Yet another example of what a horrible man he is.
Grrr….
Cheers,
Scott.
Tony Jay
@Another Scott:
Yeah. As a born and bred Liverpudlian I already had reason to despise Johnson, he didn’t need to go the extra mile.
Barry
At this point we need the formerly Great Britain to Brexit, collapse, lose Scotland and North Ireland, and to be taken by the EU as an absolute colony. Purge the Corbynites, and put the rest of Labour in charge of a Tory recycling operation (code named ‘Solyent Green’).
Scotland can take the formerly Great Britain’s place in the EU; North Ireland can be assimilated by Ireland (operation ‘The Fields Need Fertilizing’).
Barry
@Immanentize: “Could B. Johnson oddly lead the country to a “revoke 50” (start again from his pitch)?”
From what I’ve gathered, a revocation of Article 50 has to be permanent and not just a delaying tactic.
OzarkHillbilly
@Steve in the ATL:
Ha! My experience is they share more qualities with hyenas than humans. And yet I have several very good friends who are lawyers. That probably says something unsavory about me.
Oh, and before you ask, none of them ever represented me in court. They were too smart for that.
J R in WV
@Tony Jay:
Dear Tony J:
Can you, or anyone, explain where Boris’s actual given name “Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson” originates, and what the de Pfeffel parts mean?
I think part of his ancestry is Turkish, but de Pleffel doesn’t have that Turkish ring to it.
Thanks in advance!! And also thanks for all the fascinatingly distracting commentary too !!
Another Scott
@Tony Jay: I thought it was interesting that there was this news today, also too:
But a hard Brexit will get the UK great deals with anyone it wants on November 1, 2019, right!?? I mean, how hard can it be?
(sigh)
Great writeup, and your comments in response to questions are always very enlightening. Thanks very much!
Cheers,
Scott.
J R in WV
@Doug R:
And this is going to mean something specific to people in Britain>???? How what? I mean WTF?? Wilson’s been dead for decades, and wasn’t such of a much when he was alive… Whut the Fuck!??
G.B. is about over, then, innit?
J R in WV
@Tony Jay:
But wait. Wouldn’t the husky bloke have to be Prince Charles, or at least Prince Harry or Prince Willy? They’re the heirs in line for the throne. If it was a Stuart with a tartan… what then????
[I confess, I don’t actually know the junior princes’ names cold, and think it’s funnier with just my best guesses on the names…]
But still, what then?
ETA fix wild apostrophe…
Tony Jay
@J R in WV:
The Pfeffel part is from his grand-mother, a very posh descendant of German minor-nobility. Johnson’s heritage is basically a slap in the face to everything his xenophobic supporters are supposed to believe, but when did a gentle assange of hypocrisy spread across the crusty bread of bigotry ever put off a hungry, hungry wannabe fascist?
Fair Economist
@Barry: Article 50 revocation isn’t binding. Britain could revoke Article 50, and then immediately re-invoke it, restarting the 2-year exit period. Now if Britain actually exits, the EU could, and probably would, require a commitment period as a condition of re-admission.
@Another Scott: An irony of the EU-Mercosur agreement is that Argentina was the only country of any significance that Britain had gotten an agreement-in-principle for a free trade agreement post-Brexit that didn’t already have a free trade agreement with the EU. And now it’s got one with the EU, along with the other Mercosur nations, and that agreement would put some (mild) constraints on any future agreement with Britain.
Tony Jay
@J R in WV:
Good fellow, he (or she) could be a one-legged stuttering juggler from a one-surname island deep in the Under Hebridean Faerieland, they kill Brexit they get my vote.
Tony Jay
@Another Scott:
I know. It’s just ludicrous. The British Media is so invested in the Eurohate and/or terrified of getting on the wrong side of the Tories that they relentlessly edit out all the global events that – should – be very important in respect to Brexit, but since they underline how stupidly disastrous it is on every level…. bucket of squirrels time.
I need more beer.
TenguPhule
@Barry: So your ideal Britain is Cambodia during the junta then.
J R in WV
@Tony Jay:
Ah ! well now I understand. I’ve read about minor nobility in Germany, apparently if you owned the farm you got to be a von Whatever. Not quite Lord Dunsany, but whatever.
Don’t the Tories Lurve them some nobility? Seems like it from this distance, anyway.
SRW1
@Fair Economist:
.
There is the slight complication that the European Court of Justice declared in its verdict that a revocation of A50 has to be ‘serious’. What you are suggesting would be the very opposite of serious. The response of the EU would likely be that as the revocation obviously wasn’t serious, neither can it have been effective, the two year period therefore is over and you can now eff right off, dear Britain.
When you read comments on the websites of German national papers, the tone vis a vis Britain is already pretty acerbic. Playing this kind of game would be bound to make it outright hostile.
Amir Khalid
The only British institutions I really trust are The Rolling Stones and Liverpool Football Club.
Steeplejack
@Amir Khalid:
The Rolling Stones?! They have reduced themselves to being the world’s greatest Rolling Stones tribute band.
Barry
@TenguPhule: @TenguPhule: Not ideal, but necessary.
Amir Khalid
@Steeplejack:
Reaction #1: Hey! That’s my line!
Reaction #2: Also true of Britain as a whole.
Tehanu
@Ladyraxterinok: Oh, I love Tommy Hambledon! Didn’t know anyone else still knew about those books, not to mention The Far Traveller.
Steeplejack
@Amir Khalid:
Reaction #2: Also true.
Msb
I wish this wasn’t as true as it is funny. I sometimes thing the Brits are in more trouble than the Americans, because their political system is utterly unable to handle this issue.
Labour, well, Corbyn, is making things worse by refusing to take a firm stance, and winking at anti-Semitism in its ranks.
Tony Jay
@Msb:
Oh bloody hell.
Okay, fine, it’s all true. Just like it’s true that Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election because she’s an elitist snob who only ever spoke about what she was going to do for minorities, ignored the problems of the average American, dismissed anyone who questioned her as ‘deplorable’, cheated her way through the Democratic primaries, made secret speeches to Wall St in which she processed her loyalty to the rich, got American diplomats killed through incompetence, lied about it and then destroyed the evidence which existed on an illegal server she used to avoid legal oversight.
How do I know this is true? Why because even the Liberal Media told me it was over and over and over and over again. Surely if it wasn’t all true then the newspapers and TV News would have been full of people defending her, wouldn’t they? Since they weren’t, it’s QED, innit?
We’re fine with that logic? Yeah?
Snark Mode Off.