Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

A tremendous foreign policy asset… to all of our adversaries.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

Those who are easily outraged are easily manipulated.

The willow is too close to the house.

When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Just because you believe it, that does not make it true.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Sometimes the world just tells you your cat is here.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War / The War Con Is On

The War Con Is On

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Folks,

I’m sure that the situation with Iran isn’t your central focus, but I wanted to share an important insight into the current issue – Iran having passed the allowed threshold for storage of low-level enriched Uranium. If I’m incorrect, I’m sure either Adam or Cheryl will pop in.

So Iran announced, and the IAEA annnouced, that Iran had passed the threshold Monday this week. And this sounds scary, it sounds like that pesky Iran is being bad again, and will have to be taught a lesson, now doesn’t it? Well that’s the thing – this is a manufactured event and I’ll explain how. And it just kills me that no media I’ve heard, read, or seen has bothered to explain this development in context that is so badly needed.

Iran was allowed, under the agreement, to store up to 300 kg of lightly-enriched Uranium, while the rest that it produced was to be sold and shipped to overseas buyers. This agreement held, and Iran kept to it, selling it to European and Russian interests. But once the US backed out of the deal and re-leveled sanctions, this forced the other signatories to choose to either support us, or be wrapped up in severe sanctions for trading with Iran. Of course they chose to work with us and cut Iran off while, at the same time, working on some “third way” plan to keep the Iran economy from going into the pits and all the side-effects that would create. So far, this effort to find a way around the sanctions has failed to materialize.

Well, the problem regarding enriched Uranium is that, as Iran warned a few weeks back, since no one is buying that enriched Uranium that their nuclear program legally produces because of the sanctions, their stockpile is quickly building up. They don’t want it, they’d love to sell it, but that market is closed by the sanctions. So our sanctions are now causing Iran to violate the agreement.

It is my understanding (and Cheryl or other experts are welcome to jump in and explain or contradict, etc.) that, in order to stop producing this excess enriched Uranium, they would need to shut down one or more reactors, and they aren’t willing to cut off a major source of already-limited electricity in order to not cross a threshold defined in an agreement that no other signatory is following. So they won’t stop producing this low-level enriched Uranium, and since they can’t sell the output, the stockpile keeps growing.

So the deal is kaput, and there is now casus belli for the US to strike. I hope today’s “emergency” and the big “pro-US” speech on Thursday with all the martial trapping isn’t the start of a new horror.

 

Reader Interactions

41Comments

  2. 2.

    NotMax

    Fixed for formatting flub.

    there is now casus belli for the US to strike

    No, no there is not.

    FYI:

    …European powers have made operational their Instex exchange mechanism, which will allow European and other companies to do business with Iran while avoiding US Treasury Department sanctions.
    [snip]
    The high officials of Instex will be issued diplomatic passports so that the US cannot indict them and seek their extradition. Source

  3. 3.

    Duane

    Thanks Alain. I had not seen one single explanation why this happened. A failing media and Trumpov’s erratic behavior make for a dangerous world.

  5. 5.

    TenguPhule

    So the deal is kaput, and there is now casus belli for the US to strike.

    Except Trump already pulled us out of the deal. So technically not a legitimate casus belli.

    Not that this has stopped the White House from using hair raising language.

  6. 6.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Agree with NotMax that there is no casus belli for the US to strike.

    Iran has gone over the limits by only a little bit, nowhere near enough for a bomb. In terms of getting a bomb, we’re maybe a quarter of an inch from where we were earlier this week. Maybe.

    What Iran was doing with its excesses previously was to blend them down to somewhere near natural. The whole exercise is for Iran to be able to say to their nation that they continue to enrich. At one point, they did sell some to Russia. The US recently revoked the import rules that allowed that, so if the excess is building up, it’s partly because of Trump and Bolton. That hasn’t much been reported.

    The deal is not kaput (unless you’re John Bolton). I’ve seen arguments about whether or not the US could rejoin, but this is a small enough breach on Iran’s part that the EU isn’t even calling for a conference on it. Treaties always have provisions for negotiating small breaches.

    Trump is a coward. He will back away from war. I actually think that’s a good thing. He sent Bolton to Mongolia while he was visiting his very good friend over the weekend. I don’t know what Tucker Carlson’s (Bolton’s replacement) view is on Iran, though.

    The EU is getting a really strong team in. Might be interesting to see what they do about this.

  8. 8.

    TenguPhule

    @Another Scott:

    Is there some sensible reason why they need to do that as well?

    Iran is putting pressure on the other parties to get some relief from the crippling economic sanctions. This is one of the easier and less scary ways to do so.

  9. 9.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    OT but good news.

    HUGE CENSUS NEWS — the Government just advised that the decision has been made to print the the census questionnaire WITHOUT the citizenship question. We won.— Daniel Jacobson (@Dan_F_Jacobson) July 2, 2019

  10. 10.

    TenguPhule

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    the Government just advised that the decision has been made to print the the census questionnaire WITHOUT the citizenship question.

    Given this government’s track record, I’ll put off celebrating until after the things are printed and triple checked to make sure they didn’t sneak it in without saying anything.

    Trump’s people lie all the fucking time.

  11. 11.

    oatler.

    BLOOD! BLOOD! BLOOD!
    wait, what are we doin’ here? I passed out after The Partridge Family rerun at noon.

  14. 14.

    TenguPhule

    @NotMax:

    The high officials of Instex will be issued diplomatic passports so that the US cannot indict them and seek their extradition.

    I wish I was more confident that our law enforcement and military would still honor those instead of quietly disposing of them and citing that incarceration is nine-tenths of ownership..

  15. 15.

    rikyrah

    @TenguPhule:

    Given this government’s track record, I’ll put off celebrating until after the things are printed and triple checked to make sure they didn’t sneak it in without saying anything.

    Trump’s people lie all the fucking time.

    You are right.

  16. 16.

    rikyrah

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    They have to do the Census printing. It’s a very involved process. They will have to count more people with fewer offices – all by GOP design, BTW. They put that fix in in 2014.
    2014.

    THEY have been planning on sabotaging the Census since 2014.

  18. 18.

    TenguPhule

    Texas migrant facilities are ‘dangerously overcrowded’, report shows

    Meanwhile in the concentration camps.

    New images of child and adult migrants in “dangerously” overcrowded US border patrol facilities in Texas have been released as part of a report from government auditors. Meanwhile, the US House oversight committee will hold a hearing next week on the treatment of immigrant children.

    The report released on Tuesday by the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Inspector General warns that facilities in the Rio Grande Valley in southern Texas face “dangerous overcrowding” and require “immediate attention”.

    One image shows a man squashed in a crowd pressing a cardboard sign to a cell window with the word “help” written on it. He is one of 88 men in a cell meant for 41.

    “During the week of June 10, 2019, we traveled to the Rio Grande Valley in Texas and again observed serious overcrowding and prolonged detention in border patrol facilities requiring immediate attention,” the report says. A previous report issued in May had also warned about “dangerous overcrowding” at facilities in the El Paso facilities.

  19. 19.

    jl

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: That is good news.
    I wonder why they folded. Some legal analysis I read opined that the SOTUS decision seemed to be written so the Trumpsters could huddle for a day and come up with a passable cover story. Maybe they just had no plan B (wouldn’t be surprising).

    Edit: or lower court revisit of facts would force dirty stuff into record that majority of SCOTUS could not ignore.

    Maybe some flunkies didn’t want to get caught up in Trump’s bluster about delaying the (very expensive, I had no idea how expensive!!!) census. So, now they can just say to Trump that it’s too late, the Deep State printed them. Trump will be happy since something he can complain about at rallies.

  20. 20.

    Steeplejack

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I don’t know what Tucker Carlson’s (Bolton’s replacement) view is on Iran, though.

    I saw several tweets saying that Carlson counseled Trump against military action against Iran (for whatever that’s worth).

  21. 21.

    TenguPhule

    Donald Trump threatens new tariffs on $4bn of EU products

    Donald Trump has threatened fresh tariffs on $4bn (£3,2bn) of European products including cheese, scotch whisky and olives, ratcheting up pressure on the EU in a long-running row over aircraft subsidies.

    The US trade representative’s office released a list of 89 additional items – including olives, Italian and Dutch cheese, Scotch whisky, Irish whiskey, pasta, coffee and ham – that could face tariffs. These join products worth $21bn that were announced as potential targets for tariffs in April, which included roquefort cheese, wine, champagne, olive oil and seafood such as oysters. The latest list also includes a number of copper products and other metals.

    The move came days after a truce was reached in the trade war between the US and China.

    We are going to be in an economic trade war with literally every other nation on the planet before this ends.

  22. 22.

    NotMax

    re: census

    [Potentially] …16 states will see a shift in congressional reapportionment in 2020, according to a new report by Election Data Services. The biggest seat gains will likely be seen in Florida and Texas. Texas is likely to gain three congressional seats, which would give the state 39 seats in Congress. Florida is expected to gain up to two additional congressional seats, bringing its total delegation to 29 starting in 2022. Many states that are taking in large numbers of Americans from other parts of the country – Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Montana, and Oregon –will also gain at least one seat.

    The estimates also signal likely seat losses for the Midwest and the Northeast. As a result of population decline and slower rate of growth, Election Data Services projects that Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia will lose at least one congressional seat, with New York potentially losing a second, as well. California and Minnesota are borderline cases, with each facing the possibility of losing up to one seat. Source

  24. 24.

    Fair Economist

    @NotMax: I’d be happy if they pushed a “fake census” meme. That would give us an excuse to redo it.

  26. 26.

    Dopey-o

    @jl: it’s not a total loss for trump’s attack on the census. he’s already put the fear into immigrants’ hearts. There is no telling how many will receive their census forms and decide that their safest move will be to toss the forms into the trash.
    Not a big win, but remember that rome wasn’t burned in a day.

  27. 27.

    rikyrah

    @jl:

    Edit: or lower court revisit of facts would force dirty stuff into record that majority of SCOTUS could not ignore.

    remember, they had found the literal smoking gun on the dead man’s hard drives.

  31. 31.

    daveNYC

    Reactors consume enriched uranium. It’s their fuel. Iran was making noise about this to put pressure on Europe to finally do something about their promise to create a workaround on the sanctions. Unfortunately the workaround doesn’t seem to do anything to help Iran sell oil, so… whelp.

    Frankly, there was a deal with Iran and the US broke it to the point that they’re getting nine of the benefits. Can’t blame Iran for deciding to no longer be bound by the terms.

  32. 32.

    Jay

    Recently released records show Portland Police Bureau targeted counter-protesters, ignored armed alt-right demonstrators at “Patriot Prayer” rally

    PPB communications logs show concern for alt-right leader Joey Gibson’s safety, little attention to threat posed by armed “patriots”

    muckrock.com/news/archives/2019/apr/24/pbb-patriot-prayer-logs/?

    MuckRock user Brian Waters obtained communication logs from the Portland Police Bureau from the day of the rally. The logs show police frequently overlooking armed and violent demonstrators with Patriot Prayer or the Proud Boys, while explicitly targeting counter-protesters with anti-riot measures like flash grenades and pepper spray, injuring many.

    The PPB has been under scrutiny for its handling of white supremacist and right-wing rallies in the city, with accusations of excessive force on left-wing protesters and overt friendliness toward right-wing ones, including those with known histories of violence.

    Patriot Prayer leader Joey Gibson reportedly switched the location of the rally from a federal plaza near the district court to a public park near Naito Parkway, so that his group could carry concealed weapons.

    Days before the rally, the PPB issued a statement saying attendees carrying firearms must have an Oregon Concealed Handgun License and must keep their weapons concealed at all times. But the logs show that PPB repeatedly noted demonstrators with Patriot Prayer and the Proud Boys carrying visible firearms without apprehending them, putting other attendees – especially counter-protesters – at risk.

  33. 33.

    Cermet

    @Another Scott: First off, by international treaties that we and many, many countries signed (including Iran) many decades ago, ANY such country can enrich fuel up to 20% (about – too lazy to goog;e that exact value.) This is required for high efficiency reactors typical of the amerikan design, if I recall correctly. Obviously, this isn’t necessary but certainly they can under the original treaty. Since we violated the latest agreement (not a treaty unless our senate had ratified it – again, not sure but I don’t recall we did) then we as an agreement, they need not follow it thanks to the orange fart cloud.

  34. 34.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @TenguPhule: Tengu, you clearly aren’t thinking down to a Trump official level; sneaking something in demands effort out of them. Telling Trump the put the question in, not bothering to print the census and then using the budget for the census on hookers and blow is more how these guys work.

    It’s like the child abuse – creating hellish prisons for kids it the laziest thing they could do.

  36. 36.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Cermet: Ummm, no. Typical fuel enrichment levels for pressurised-water reactors is about 3.5% or a little higher.

    I’m not sure the Iranians actually manufacture their own fuel for the single power reactor they have at Bushehr — it was completed by Rosatom, the Russian nuclear power plant builders and they usually offer a turnkey solution for purchasers with a low level of nuclear engineering capabilities like Iran, supplying fresh fuel bundles and dealing with spent fuel.

    20% enriched fuel (actually about 19.5%) hits a sweet spot in terms of burnup versus isotope waste residues for research reactors requiring a high neutron flux. A lot of older research reactors around the world used to use higher-enrichment fuel (up to bomb-grade, pretty much) but they’ve mostly been shut down or converted to work with 20%-enriched fuel as a proliferation limiting exercise. The Iranians have fueled at least one of their research reactors with natively-produced 20%-enriched uranium fuel after it was converted to work with the lesser-enriched fuel elements.

    Note that a research reactor only uses a few tens of kilos of fuel if that whereas a full fuel load for the Bushehr power reactor would be a hundred tonnes or so of fuel bundles.

  39. 39.

    Aaron

    I think the phrase you are looking for is “low enriched uranium” rather then ‘lightly enriched’.
    LEU can be up to 20% enriched.
    Highly Enriched Uranium is enriched at 90%+

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