Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Let me file that under fuck it.

Elections aren’t won by handwringing, cowering, and/or bashing your own candidates.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

He imagines himself as The Big Bad, Who Is Universally Feared… instead of The Big Jagoff, Who Is Universally Mocked.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. Do not congratulate. This is not business as usual.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

You are here: Home / Civil Rights / Women's Rights / A Woman's Place Is In The House / Tuesday Morning Open Thread

Tuesday Morning Open Thread

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Don’t know if this is “correct”, but it’s interesting:

… Barring a shock to the system, Democrats recapture the presidency. The leaking of the Trump campaign’s internal polling has somewhat softened the blow of this forecast, as that polling reaffirms what my model already knew: Trump’s 2016 path to the White House, which was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, is probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate. And that is really bad news for Donald Trump because the Blue Wall of the Midwest was then, and is now, the ONLY viable path for Trump to win the White House…

Much more detail (and an interactive version of that chart) at the link. (Of course, “barring a shock to the system” is a pretty big escape clause, especially with the current smash’n’grab crew occupying the Oval Office… )

Reader Interactions

182Comments

  8. 8.

    Baud

    Ugh. We have to rely on the Midwest again.

    To be fair, the Mountain West states (except Colorado) don’t get enough hate.

  10. 10.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Baud: Caveats for New Mexico with Nevada having some blueness to them. Plus AZ just sent Kyrsten Sinema to Washington.

  12. 12.

    Spanky

    My anxiety levels are not dropping, because Russia. Active measures this go-round.

    Blech.

  13. 13.

    Raven

    @NotMax: My pal from Ft Meyers said the same thing. As far as the fishing part it’s always a crap shoot. I’ve been on the gulf in November and May when it was too rough to go out. You are right though, for what we are paying int may be worth it. If the boat cancels you get your dough back but the rest. . .

  15. 15.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Baud: Yep, and when it comes to Nevada it would have been more accurate to say “Las Vegas” (and I suppose Reno). Good thing cows can’t vote.

  17. 17.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    I just got back from my trip to Xyzzx*, which is about 2/3’s of the way to Vegas. It was windy AF, but I managed to get a good pic(40 exposures @ 15 sec, f/2.0, ISO 1600 stacked).

    *Also a Balloon Juice commenter.

  18. 18.

    OzarkHillbilly

    Donald Trump said he might “intercede” to “clean up” homelessness in San Francisco and Los Angeles, noting that world leaders “can’t be looking at that”.

    I can see it now, Concrete floors and cages, one toilet per hundred, no soap, no toothpaste, no water… Yeah, trump has a solution for homelessness.

  20. 20.

    Joey Maloney

    “Barring massive disenfranchisement, gerrymandering, and ballot tampering…”

    WE R SO FUCKED

  26. 26.

    Paul in Saint Augustine

    If 45 captures the remaining 63 electoral votes and loses 278-260, there’s no effing way he’s voluntarily leaving the WH. His minions will spread through the land claiming the election was fixed. Thursday is a test run for amassing the military, and he’s brazen enough to declare martial law.

  27. 27.

    NotMax

    11 games on my Steam wishlist on special during their Summer Sale.

    Must. Resist.

    (Although the one now priced at 95 cents I might spring for.)

  30. 30.

    OzarkHillbilly

    Facebook’s new policy banning white nationalism from its site has been undercut by the company’s decision to ignore content that does not use the term “white nationalism”, according to an external audit.

    Figures.

  33. 33.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @JPL: His incoherence is a feature, not a bug. No matter what he says they can implement almost any policy and say he promised it.

    I’m pretty damned sure they won’t do a damn thing because that would cost money that should be going into corporate pockets.

  35. 35.

    Jeffro

    Excellent news! Now let’s make sure we flip the Senate too. Imagine what the opposite of Election Night 2016 feels like…that could be Election Night 2020!

    (also loving that relatively darker shade of blue on Virginia…we’re coming for North Carolina next, Repubs!)

  36. 36.

    snoey

    @Baud: Montana might be doable. Bozeman and Missoula are expanding fast – same demographic that would have moved to Colorado 15 years ago is moving there.

  37. 37.

    satby

    @Baud: An election that results in a different CiC gives the military a reason to quit following Drumpf’s stupid orders. Which I bet a lot of the Joint Chiefs can’t wait for. Assuming they’d back him instead of an elected replacement is ridiculous, so he probably thinks that.

    @rikyrah: Good morning ?

  38. 38.

    NotMax

    @snoey

    Yup. People have to realize that eastern Montana has like 17 people, and the university/college towns in the rest of the state tend to skew bluish.

  39. 39.

    Jeffro

    What I did not anticipate was that, at least among Republicans, a threat response can be artificially generated at a mass scale and at a time when a party’s voters should be placated. Despite controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress in 2018, turnout surged nearly as much among Republicans, leading to the highest overall midterm turnout rates we have seen since 1914. Overall turnout ended up at a whopping 50.4%, tempting many analysts afterward to conduct comparisons between 2016 and 2018, a presidential-to-midterm comparison that is usually apparently absurd. Trump and the RNC accomplished this by running a base-centric mobilization campaign focused largely on stoking fear of immigration; a strategy they will replicate for 2020 while adding socialism into the mix.

    Good to keep in mind – we absolutely have to go all-out in order to beat the terrified GOP base

  40. 40.

    debbie

    @rikyrah:

    I’ve come to really hate Photoshop (even though I used to use it all the time for work) and how it’s being abused (ProPublica in mind). If Adobe crawls computers making sure licensees are paying and using it properly, they ought to be able to detect when their technology is being abused and then shut it down.

  42. 42.

    Baud

    @satby:

    Outgoing presidents really have no role to play in the inauguration. Their only real responsibility is moving out and helping with the transition. Trump can screw that up. But martial law means nothing. Harren Warris can take the oath of office on inauguration day from anywhere.

  43. 43.

    Jeffro

    … the only massive restructuring I might have to make to this forecast involves a significant upheaval like the entrance of a well-funded Independent candidate such as Howard Schultz into the general election, which our national survey in March shows would likely to pull 5 votes away from the Democrats’ nominee for each one vote it would pull away from Trump. Other potential significant disruptions might be a ground war with Iran, an economic recession, or a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11. Otherwise, the country’s hyperpartisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone.

    As unpopular as Donald Trump is today, and no matter how badly he trails his potential Democratic rivals in head-to-head polls right now, on Election Day Donald Trump will earn the vote of somewhere around 90% of self-identified Republicans. And as 2018 demonstrated, Republicans will increase their turnout rate over 2016. This, combined with a floor for Trump among Independents of around 38% (because of right-leaning Independents) and an infusion of cash that will dwarf his 2016 efforts, Trump has a floor that is at least theoretically competitive for reelection and will force Democrats to compete hard to win the presidency

  45. 45.

    Jeffro

    A note on Florida: As it was in 2018, my model is convinced that Florida is going to break in favor of the Democrats. After 2018, I am less convinced, but that is because I know something about Florida that my model does not know: Florida is really, really old. No state hosts more members of the Silent Generation, and Silents are more conservative, more white, more Republican, and thus less hostile to Trump than their generational counterparts. Not only are seniors realigning to the Republican Party, they are also the nation’s most reliable voters. The other issue with Florida is that as white, non-college educated voters, especially older ones, become more Republican, Democrats become increasingly reliant on the turnout of young and/or Latino voters to make up the difference. As of 2018, Democrats still have not cracked the code on getting either young people or Latino voters mobilized (although I will show you that they made gains in 2018 that were critical to their victories). Until they do, states like Florida, Georgia, and Texas remain highly attractive pitfalls.

  46. 46.

    debbie

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Oh, please. He’s claiming it started two years ago! Having lived in NYC, I can attest, it’s gone on since the 1980s. Trump must never have descended from his personal firmament.

    <a href="

    Tucker Carlson asked Trump why American cities are filthy and have people urinating on the streets. Trump said, "It's a phenomena that started two years ago." (?)The whole answer is something. pic.twitter.com/tGgsg538A7— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) July 2, 2019

    “>Daniel Dale is incredulous.

  49. 49.

    Baud

    @Jeffro:

    And as 2018 demonstrated, Republicans will increase their turnout rate over 2016. 

    This makes no sense.

  50. 50.

    Baud

    @Jeffro:

    No state hosts more members of the Silent Generation, and Silents are more conservative, more white, more Republican, and thus less hostile to Trump than their generational counterparts.

    Makes the whole Boomer v. Millennial fight seem stupid.

  56. 56.

    OzarkHillbilly

    An arctic fox has walked more than 3,500km (2,000 miles) from Norway to Canada in just 76 days, astonishing researchers at the Norwegian Polar Institute.

    The animal, known as a coastal or blue fox, was fitted with a tracking device in July 2017. It left Spitsbergen in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago on 26 March 2018. After 21 days and 1,512 km out on the sea ice, it landed in Greenland on 16 April 2018. Its journey continued to Ellesmere Island in Canada, where it arrived on 1 July.

    “We first did not believe it was true,” said researcher Eva Fuglei, who tracked the female fox.

    The institute said in a research paper titled “One female’s long run across sea ice” that the Arctic fox’s journey was among the longest ever recorded. It was so long, in fact, that researchers initially questioned whether the fox’s collar could have been removed and taken on board a boat.

    “But no, there are no boats that go so far up in the ice. So we just had to keep up with what the fox did,” Fuglei said.

    The collar transmitted data each day for a three-hour period. Moving across sea ice and glaciers, the fox moved at an average of 46.3km per day and on one day travelled a whopping 155km, when it was on the ice sheet in northern Greenland.

  60. 60.

    Betty Cracker

    Our nephew (career military) is being deployed to Afghanistan again. I’ve lost track of how many tours he’s done in Afghanistan and Iraq. On his first Iraq deployment, early in PBO’s first term, he led foot patrols through Baghdad. Now he’s got two small children who don’t understand why he’ll be gone for nearly a year. Lots of bad news coming out of Afghanistan lately. Why are we still there?

  65. 65.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Betty Cracker: And if anything bad ever comes out of Afghanistan to land upon our shores, even if it’s a highly infectious fatal flu virus 50 years down the road, that will be their fault as well.

  67. 67.

    Matt McIrvin

    Bitecofer’s analysis suggests that some elite-centrist fool like Howard Schultz could be a bigger problem than I would have thought.

  69. 69.

    Ken

    @OzarkHillbilly: It sounds funny until you read the whole article, then it’s not. If the reporting is correct (yes, a big if) the Italian authorities have the wrong person in custody, know it, and are going ahead with the prosecution anyway. Ask Amanda Knox how that works.

    (Not that the Italians are unique in that.)

  70. 70.

    tobie

    @Betty Cracker: So sorry for your nephew and his family. I read yesterday that there was a huge explosion in Kabul that killed over 50 people. Went to the Washington Post and couldn’t find a word about it. We don’t even care to report on Afghanistan any longer so why oh why are we still sending troops there?

  72. 72.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Matt McIrvin: I find it rather telling that these analyses always show the “centrist independent” taking more votes from DEMs than they do from the GOP. It’s almost like the DEMs are more centrist than the GOP by a 4-1 margin or something.

    But “both sides”.

  73. 73.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Ken: I know, I read it. The situation is quite sad, but it’s still funny that the prosecutors can’t even get a name right.

  74. 74.

    Betty Cracker

    @JWR: Looks like the little bush that replaced Gabbard escaped being painted red and joining the Third Lady’s murder bush Christmas extravaganza!

  75. 75.

    SFAW

    Barring a shock to the system, Democrats recapture the presidency.

    “Barring Hitlary not going to Wisconsin”
    “Barring the Attorney General finding something ‘incriminating’ at the last moment ”
    “Barring Preznit Shitgibbon issuing an executive order that Demon-Rats must PROVE they’ve lived in America for 100 years before being allowed to vote”

    I am so fucking tired of the sooper-jeenyuses telling me/us anything approaching “it’s in the bag!” I don’t really care if Rachel Bitcofer “got it right” in 2018. If I recall, Sam Wang “got it right” — until he didn’t. And the “barring the rivers flowing backwards” disclaimers don’t really mean much — assume that they will.

  76. 76.

    MomSense

    @Spanky:

    Hey, my couch is a bit small but I’ve got chairs, too. Come sit by me.
    Between Russian measures and the weird way Ivanka is being promoted now, I’m having Ceausescu family flashes. It’s going to be Trump Trump 2020. That’s totally insane I know in all the other timelines save this one.

  78. 78.

    Betty Cracker

    @tobie: I think Ozark and Raven are correct. Last night, Trump offered this demented explanation:

    [“Sir” fetish alert!] If only the general were plain and looked the part less…

  81. 81.

    opiejeanne

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: People live in Xyzzx again? And there’s a lake? On a road trip in the early 60s we stayed in the fleabag motel one night because Dad was too tired to drive the rest of the way to LA. I remember Mom being disgusted by the owner of this empty motel in the middle of nowhere ripping us off on the price. I think they paid $12 for the night. My mild-mannered mother could usually get us a motel room for $8 or $9 o these trips just by making the offer, and $10 was only paid for nicer digs.

    It seems so unbelievable to type those prices while I sit in the Peabody in Memphis, and my “bargain” price after they added everything on will come to $224, and then I was too sick to go to Beale street last night. (bad reaction to lunch)
    It’s a very nice room in a beautiful hotel, but the add-ons were brutal. That’s a lot of extra dough to watch some ducks splash around in a fountain. I usually have moral trouble paying $125 for a night in a room. Hampton Inn tonight and tomorrow, at under $100, before we fly home on the 4th.

  86. 86.

    Another Scott

    @tobie: If one wants international news, one pretty much has to read Reuters or aljazeera. Domestic papers have tiny international bureaus these days and usually just reprint wire stories.

    Finger’s crossed for all the Crackers and everyone else still being sent to Afghanistan. :-(

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  88. 88.

    Baud

    @Betty Cracker:

    it’s tough when a “great-looking, Central Casting” general comes to him and says, “Sir, I’d rather attack ‘em over there than attack ‘em in our land.”

    Sounds familiar.

    We will fight them over there so we do not have to face them in the United States of America.

  89. 89.

    Betty Cracker

    @MomSense: It’s terrible, but I’d like to see that bunch get Ceaușescued. Part of me reacts to your Trump-Trump ticket prediction with “that’s crazy talk!” but we’re so far down the rabbit hole…

    PS: Did you see “Years and Years” last night?

  91. 91.

    MomSense

    @Betty Cracker:

    Yup. I may need to stop watching but I can’t look away. It’s brilliant. Terrifying, but brilliant.

    I’m hoping for either a Mussolini or Ceausescu end for the Dumps. The problem is that their ends were justified by their means and that’s very bad news. All of these freak dictators are so similar. With the Dumps we’ve got the Ceausescu style family power consolidation complete with the missing, abused, and dead children. We are on a very dark path right now.

  92. 92.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    I’m gearing up to go to the gym this morning. I’ve been struggling with drug side effects for several weeks that have kept me from going much of anywhere. But my meds were changed at the end of last week and I’m hoping that puts me on the right path. Sadly the only thing that’s helped so far is to stop eating. Since I am a little old lady, this is not sustainable.

  94. 94.

    opiejeanne

    @Ken: Lol! We just saw the Grant Canal from the Civil War yesterday. I predict less success for a canal to Death Valley.

  95. 95.

    Matt McIrvin

    @OzarkHillbilly: If the votes lost to the Schultz type are mostly in deep-blue states (which I suspect they would be), it may not matter much.

  96. 96.

    Jeffro

    @rikyrah:

    2016 was about how they worked to suppress the Black & Minority vote.
    2020 will be about how they work to divide the Black & Minority vote.

    A clear sign of a president* and a party that have absolutely nothing to run on…and our candidates at every level should note that, LOUDLY, at every opportunity.

    “If they had anything to offer you, America, they’d tell you and tell you honestly. But all they have are lies, voter suppression, Russia-assisted disinformation, fear, and division.” – here you go Dem candidates, take it, use it, it’s yours.

  98. 98.

    MomSense

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    I’m really sorry to hear this. Have you tried broth? I know that sounds crazy but if you make a good broth with lots of vegetables (and apple peels) it makes a soothing drink that can help you to eat some solid food. I used to make it for my friend and it worked well. She even had it for breakfast. Miso broth also works well and gives you some nutrition.

  99. 99.

    Jeffro

    @Baud: I think her point is that Republicans’ turnout rate for the midterms was notably higher than in previous midterms. The reason Dems won was that ours was way, way higher than usual.

    The GOP base has demonstrated that they can be motivated by these rank appeals to fear and hate mongering, so she’s expecting that for 2020 they will respond at an even higher rate. It sounds sensible to me.

  100. 100.

    Jeffro

    @OldDave: I’m quoting from the same article Annie tweet-cited (the one by Ms. Bitecofer) at the top of this post. You can click on the link in the tweet.

    It’s a fascinating article but whether we think it’ll be close or a Dem blowout, the result is the same. We have to go all. out. in 2020.

  101. 101.

    germy

    If the Democratic primary field was a university history department:

    http://notesironbound.blogspot.com/2019/06/if-democratic-primary-field-was.html

    Joe Biden is the old professor still teaching off of notes he typed up in 1975 and who gets handsy at the holiday party after one too many scotch and sodas. His colleagues have been privately asking themselves for years why he hasn’t retired yet.

    Bernie Sanders is the old Marxist scholar who doesn’t show up to all of the faculty meetings, but when he does he’s salty and still holds grudges established in 1983. While most of his colleagues are ambivalent to him, the grad students and adjuncts like him because he’s one of the few tenured people to actually bring their concerns to the faculty.

    Kamala Harris is the hotshot rising associate professor known for showing up to job talks and destroying weak candidates with withering questions. She also suddenly became a transnational historian once that became a popular topic and abandoned her dissertation on diplomatic history.

    Elizabeth Warren is the established full professor who is still putting out highly regarded research while having a high reputation as a teacher. She also has managed to take Professor Sanders’ side in faculty meeting disputes without alienating her colleagues.

    Beto O’Rourke is the young, run of the mill assistant professor who thinks he is above his current department, and tries and fails every year to land a job at a more prestigious university.

    Tim Ryan thinks his obsession with grade inflation is the reason that his class enrollments are low, not the fact that he is an insufferable ass who lacks empathy for his students.

    Amy Klobuchar is the professor who has racked up a lot of publications but has never mentored a graduate student on through their dissertation, despite taking on several of them in their first year at the school. When asked about this her former advisees, who always take on a different advisor or drop out, go silent. Junior colleagues pray that she’s not on their tenure committee.

    When Tulsi Gabbard comes up in conversation her colleagues sigh and point fingers over who was responsible for hiring her.

    Pete Buttigieg is the Type A personality assistant professor who got hired while he was still ABD at an Ivy League university. He was the golden child of his well-known advisor, but he mysteriously hasn’t published anything yet.

    Julian Castro is the new hire that nobody talked about when he arrived but had the fattest binders when he applied for tenure.

    Cory Booker is the professor who is constantly talking about himself. This draws a core group of impressionable students who don’t understand why the other professors roll their eyes when they express their admiration for him.

    Marianne Williamson is the professor who burns incense in her office and invites grad students over to her home to try edibles.

  102. 102.

    opiejeanne

    @RAVEN: This has been one hell of a trip and I love the story about how the ducks got there.

    I like Memphis. I like the people.

  103. 103.

    Jeffro

    @MomSense:

    Between Russian measures and the weird way Ivanka is being promoted now, I’m having Ceausescu family flashes. It’s going to be Trump Trump 2020. That’s totally insane I know in all the other timelines save this one.

    It actually makes plenty of ‘sense’ given what we know about trumpov’s utter lack of shame, his need for legal cover, the family’s need for continued grift, and the GOP’s utter surrender of whatever principles it once had.

    As I mentioned yesterday, all it’ll take is a high enough payoff to (and/or enough blackmail material on) Pence.

    I still think it’s more unlikely than not, but the chance of this happening is certainly not in single-digit percentages.

  104. 104.

    raven

    @opiejeanne: My only trip there was the Illini-Bama Liberty Bowl, Bear’s last game. We froze our asses off and go drunker than grandma’s old yella hawg!

  107. 107.

    opiejeanne

    @raven: My grandma had chickens and they didn’t drink. I’m not sure how your grandma’s old yells hawg got drunk but it don’t sound a’tall purty.

  108. 108.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    @raven: @Immanentize: Thanks for the good wishes.

    @MomSense: I haven’t tried broth. Thanks.

    I’m all right in the sense that I don’t have a disease or anything. A new drug just knocked me off balance.. I saw the Nurse Practitioner yesterday and she was very encouraging but she said this will take time. Patience is not my strong suit.

    Thanks for letting me whine.

  110. 110.

    rikyrah

    Just watched the trailer for the new Scream reboot, done by Queen Latifah, and it has Mary J and Keke Palmer in it. I don’t do horror, but, I have always made an exception for Scream. I’m in. It’ll be Monday, July 8th on VH1.

  115. 115.

    Kay

    WASHINGTON ― President Donald Trump has hijacked what for decades had been a nonpolitical Independence Day celebration on the National Mall, packing his ticketed-event speech with political appointees and Republican donors.
    The Republican National Committee has been offering major donors tickets to Trump’s speech, as have political appointees at the White House and executive branch agencies.

    They cordoned off reserve seating exclusively for Republicans and Republican donors.

    Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a New York University history professor and expert on fascism, said Trump’s need to display military hardware is a feature of authoritarians throughout history. “He needs to colonize our lives. He needs to colonize our public spaces,” she said, adding that it was “dismaying” that the Pentagon this year failed to thwart Trump’s impulses. “The military has been domesticated. I think the will to resist him has evaporated.”

    It’s good that there will be blanket coverage of this Tribute to Dear Leader rally. We’ll be able to see which fancy people are willing to publicly debase themselves this way.

  117. 117.

    germy

    WaPo:

    Trump paints a dark picture of homelessness in U.S. cities: ‘We may intercede’

    The president made the remarks in an interview he taped in Japan with Fox News host Tucker Carlson, after Carlson said Japan’s cities are clean and free from graffiti and “junkies.”

    Uh oh. Any other president pledging to tackle homelessness would be good news. More aid, housing assistance, etc. But this guy? Probably firehoses and mass roundups and incarceration.

  118. 118.

    Cacti

    After the theft of 2016, we should take nothing for granted re: the electoral college. Don’t let it be close enough to steal anywhere.

  119. 119.

    Kay

    The generic congressional ballot concerns me. The gap should be bigger than 6. I supported Pelosi in not impeaching because I think House Democrats are not majority liberals, although there are more liberals than before, and she didn’t have enough support for impeachment but I’m afraid they’re seen as ineffective more broadly in holding Trump accountable, which is a bigger problem. They have to enforce their demands. They can lose in court if it comes to that, but they have to fight. Maybe this isn’t applicable in high level politics, but I have found in my work that I can lose- my people will forgive me for that- what they won’t forgive me for is not fighting, if it comes to that. We’re there. They have to enforce demands.
    If presidential campaigns didn’t start so early a narrower gap in the generic ballot would be a clear warning sign that Democrats in Congress aren’t reaching voters. Pelosi has to fix that.

  123. 123.

    germy

    Trump told Tucker Carlson that his instinct is to withdraw the US from Afghanistan, but it’s tough when a “great-looking, Central Casting” general comes to him and says, “Sir, I’d rather attack ‘em over there than attack ‘em in our land.”— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) July 2, 2019

    TFW you have a coherent non-interventionist mindset (that is easily swayed by a studly general). https://t.co/LDhz8Pkpy5— Centrism Fan Acct ? (@Wilson__Valdez) July 2, 2019

  124. 124.

    Kay

    @rikyrah:

    I’m sure they’re terrified of him given that he apparently can’t get a tax return or compel anyone to appear. The border agents weren’t accepting the authority of members of Congress who were there yesterday- ordinary front line employees were blowing off House members standing in front of them. They think they’re untouchable.

  125. 125.

    Plato

    No impeachment proceedings. No opposition to Trump's border bill.No investigation of Trump rape charges.No fuss about Trump's tax returns.There's a clear pattern emerging from Pelosi and House Dem Leadership. https://t.co/v2W4apTn9m— Ezra Levin (@ezralevin) July 2, 2019

    So much noise was made about the thug’s tax returns and russian collusion. The dems lost their framing with their dithering.

  127. 127.

    germy

    Only the best donors for the July 4th celebration.

    Again, I predict some really good investigative reporting on Trump's graft will come out of simply making a list of who shows up to the VIP section. https://t.co/Zu0pNzS8KQ— emptywheel (@emptywheel) July 1, 2019

  128. 128.

    rikyrah

    I searched around the internet, and couldn’t find stories of any indictments from the NY AG’s office. So…what happened that sent Dolt45 on a tear about AG James yesterday?

  129. 129.

    Kay

    @germy:

    Ugh. A whole day spent lauding Donald Trump. I’m sure it’s worth it- tens or hundreds of millions in regulatory capture and political influence and federal contracts- but it’s humiliating. It is good he’s forcing them to appear publicly and vow allegiance to him, though. At least we’ll see which ones made the trade.

  130. 130.

    rikyrah

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Schulz would have to put his own money in. Building an organization from scratch in a lot of states takes work. Here’s the thing, Ross Perot, though a nut, had a personality. Schulz has none of that.

  132. 132.

    Betty Cracker

    @Kay: In 12 days, Mueller will appear in a publicly televised hearing. This can be the reset the House Democrats need. This is a good time to make the investigation about the ongoing threat to national security posed by Trump’s refusal to take election interference seriously (he just handed us fresh ammo with the “wink-wink don’t interfere” moment with Putin). Broaden it to encompass the clear and present danger posed by Trump’s unprecedented corruption, with fresh ammo on that score provided by his sleazy, unqualified family running foreign policy. Like you said, show some fight.

  133. 133.

    chopper

    @germy:

    and of course all this means is the military brass can get any idea they want past the guy if they just pick General Chad Sexington to deliver the briefing.

    john bolton is probably getting facial reconstruction surgery as we speak.

  134. 134.

    SFAW

    @Kay:
    Josh Marshall had an interesting comment re: turning his “May Day Parade” — interesting if he has Vladi and the rest of the Politburo attending, and interesting to see who gets Photoshopped out of the picture — into a political rally might violate a faw or two, since there will be Government property involved. (I assume the Hatch Act was part of that.)

    I’m sure Traitor Turtle will get on the horn with the Traitor-in-Chief and tell him that now he’s “gone too far.”

  135. 135.

    germy

    @chopper: What if the GOP nominates General Chad Sexington for president in 2024? Can you see the campaign signs? “Chad 2024: Cut Out The Middleman”

  136. 136.

    germy

    @Betty Cracker: How do you think he’ll react to Gym Jordan and the others, who have sworn to cut him to pieces on the witness stand? I like to think he’ll snap back, but I honestly don’t know.

  137. 137.

    rikyrah

    I think the title is bullshyt, the editorial is milquetoast.
    We don’t have an immigration crisis. We have a racism put into policy crisis, by an Administration bound an determined to hurt non-White people. A border patrol that is out of control, and needs to be completely cleaned of personnel. And. I don’t see or hear from one phucking Republican office holder about what’s happening in these camps.
    This entire op-ed just did nothing for me.

    The Immigration Crisis Is Corrupting the Nation
    Border agents who demeaned migrants on Facebook have exacerbated a grim situation.

    By The Editorial Board
    The editorial board represents the opinions of the board, its editor and the publisher. It is separate from the newsroom and the Op-Ed section.

    July 1, 2019

    Last year, as part of an effort to carry out President Trump’s promise of “extreme vetting” of visitors to the United States, the Department of Homeland Security began collecting social media account information from millions of people seeking to cross the border.

    After all, a radical online could be a radical offline.

    That’s why the stream of posts ricocheting around a 9,500-member Facebook group, comprising current and former Border Patrol agents as well as some people with no apparent connection to the Border Patrol, is so troubling. Members of the group, as documented by ProPublica this week, “joked about the deaths of migrants, discussed throwing burritos at Latino members of Congress visiting a detention facility in Texas on Monday and posted a vulgar illustration depicting Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez engaged in oral sex with a detained migrant, according to screenshots of their postings.”

    Of a 16-year-old migrant from Guatemala who died while in Border Patrol custody in May, a member of the group wrote, “If he dies, he dies.”

    Customs and Border Protection said on Monday that it had informed the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general about the posts and had started its own investigation. The National Border Patrol union decried the posts as “inappropriate and unprofessional.”

    ……………….

    In a larger sense, the Border Patrol Facebook posts reveal a worrying mind-set among some of those charged with administering the harshest crackdown on migrants and asylum-seekers in decades. “These are clearly agents who are desensitized to the point of being dangerous to migrants and their co-workers,” Representative Joaquin Castro, who heads the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, told ProPublica.

    The realities of that crackdown have created conditions that Americans would condemn if they were in another country.

    While lawmakers refuse to compromise on emergency aid for the humanitarian needs at the border, “children are held for weeks in deplorable conditions, without access to soap, clean water, showers, clean clothing, toilets, toothbrushes, adequate nutrition or adequate sleep,” groups supporting the children wrote in a recent court filing. A judge on Friday ordered Customs and Border Protection to allow health workers into facilities where children are being held to ensure that conditions are “safe and sanitary.”

    ……………

    Only a callous person could find mirth in the misery at the border. And only a desensitized nation could continue to permit the separation of children from their parents — and detaining all of them in atrocious conditions — as a morally acceptable form of deterrence.

    WHO is desensitized. Certainly not me, or anyone here. We’re absolutely phucking furious!

  138. 138.

    SFAW

    @chopper:

    john bolton is probably getting facial reconstruction surgery as we speak

    One hopes that the “surgeon” gets his “facial reconstruction” tools from Hillerich & Bradsby.

  139. 139.

    SFAW

    @germy:

    How do you think he’ll react to Gym Jordan and the others, who have sworn to cut him to pieces on the witness stand?

    Jordan and the other morons need to have an IQ higher than room temperature to be able to do that. They don’t. They’ll just preen for the cameras and their base, make up some bullshit “facts” about which to “grill” Mueller, and Mueller will remain as calm as Hillary did.

  140. 140.

    Betty Cracker

    @germy: I have no idea, but Mueller seems like a “just the facts, ma’am” type of dude, and Jordan, Gohmert, et al, will be spouting absurd conspiracy theories that anyone outside their base regards as pinwheel-eyed nonsense. So I’m optimistic about the chances of Mueller coming off as a professional and the GOP lot presenting as Trump-addled fools.

  141. 141.

    SFAW

    @SFAW:

    might violate a faw or two,

    Or even a LAW or two.

    What a maroon. I can’t even (credibly) claim I fat-fingered it.

  142. 142.

    chopper

    @SFAW:

    “oh no, he died on the operating table! at least we can harvest the tusks for some decent scrimshaw.”

  143. 143.

    SFAW

    @Betty Cracker:

    Louie certainly increased his street cred by calling Mueller an “anal opening” the other day. Better an asshole than a bald, stupid, ugly piece of shit like Gohmert.

  145. 145.

    Nicole

    @rikyrah:

    So…what happened that sent Dolt45 on a tear about AG James yesterday?

    As best I could tell, Apricot Pol Pot suddenly remembered his “Foundation” had been shut down and went on a tear about it, accusing the AG office of… wait for it… witch hunts. In other words, it was a day of the week ending in “y.”

  146. 146.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @germy: @Betty Cracker: How do you think he’ll react to Gym Jordan and the others, who have sworn to cut him to pieces on the witness stand? I like to think he’ll snap back, but I honestly don’t know.

    I’ve had somewhat low expectations about Mueller, first of all because he’s a reluctant witness (and enamored of his own non-partisan rectitude) and also because the format of alternating questioning will slow any momentum to build the narrative for those who’ve ignore the report, but I think Jordan doing his methed-up Chuckie doll thing, ranting about Strzok and Page against the blank stare of Sam The Eagle may not make for great television, outside of that Audience of One

  149. 149.

    Immanentize

    @Nicole:
    He probably wanted to pay for some outlandish thing at his “Be Worst!” Party on Thursday, went to get some cash from the foundation and learned (again) that particular slush fund is closed.

  151. 151.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Immanentize: IANAL but given that he focused on James, is it unreasonable to think some new subpoenas were issued, or they lost a closed hearing on some evidence or other?

    Also: He lived in NY state for the better part of a century and seems to think that the NY AG is appointed by the governor.

  152. 152.

    rikyrah

    @Kay:

    It’s good that there will be blanket coverage of this Tribute to Dear Leader rally. We’ll be able to see which fancy people are willing to publicly debase themselves this way.

    We went from the President having a picnic for Military families at the White House to THIS.
    UH HUH
    UH HUH

  153. 153.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @germy: Damn, that’s good, giving me flashbacks to graduate school. I would only add that Professor Bernie would also have a persistent preoccupation with upgrading his parking assignment, and would harass dept administrative staff about it at least once a week

  154. 154.

    Immanentize

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: There is a diary at the GOS that makes the same point. I was just mocking the guy.

    It could be anything — Maybe someone got a target letter. Maybe some particularly tasty but of discovery was delivered. Maybe indictments are ready for July 5.

    We will know only after the attorneys for the Trump Cartel know.

    ETA. Yes, the AG is elected in NY and most states. Maybe we should do that in the US too. Or, the AG could’ve made part of the judicial branch with no change to the Constitution…. Just a big fight.

  155. 155.

    Immanentize

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:
    That is so true. I can’t remember right now who said it — the father of the U.C. system maybe? Paraphrase:
    “To be a successful University president you must guarantee three things: Sports for alumni, sex for students, and parking for faculty.”

    Yep, it was Clark Kerr.

  157. 157.

    Bumper

    @raven: If you’re still in this thread, I thought you might be interested in this area for fishing. Somewhat near your old stomping ground at Fort Lewis. Lots of fishing, beautiful weather in the summer. Peaceful.

  158. 158.

    trollhattan

    @Betty Cracker:
    After Trump’s second term we get puppet President Pence to provide Trump’s third term. Yeah, I slept real well after that.

    The amazing Emma Thompson, of course, offering his election strategy in real time.

  159. 159.

    Fair Economist

    What worries me about that map is that pretty much all the must win Senate states are grey or mixed. I agree the odds are very much in favor of winning the Presidency but the Presidency without the Senate does not let us fix the country, and if we do not win the Senate in 2020 it will be nearly impossible to win it for a decade.

  160. 160.

    trollhattan

    Programming note: noon, Best Coast time, our women take on their last major impediment to a fourth WWC.

    I need to find a downtown joint with a big screen for a two-hour lunch. Provided situations don’t conspire against that.

    Go Oosa!

  161. 161.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Fair Economist: it seems like Dems, including the candidates, are just accepting the fact of McConnell as Majority Leader. As a pragmatist (often pessimist) I agree it’s a high probability, but the lack of focus/fight when it comes to the Senate is odd.

    The wheels are already falling off of John Hickenlooper’s vanity campaign. Maybe he just really, really, really didn’t want to be in the Senate. HRC and BHO didn’t particularly enjoy it, apparently, but what he and the other White Mediocrities were/are thinking…

    BC News Politics @ ABCPolitics
    NEW: At least five key aides to John Hickenlooper have confirmed they’re leaving his campaign or intend to do so in the coming weeks.

    his finance director is moving over to the O’Rourke campaign, which is a….. an interesting choice

  162. 162.

    Kay

    @Betty Cracker:

    Maybe they have to decide- follow the Russian thread (which leads to impeachment) or follow the corruption thread. Right now they’re doing neither. The whole justification for not pursuing impeachment was that was supposed to allow them to focus on other things. Now we’re back to the Russia hearings?

    They can’t do this:

    On May 17, Treasury refused to comply with a subpoena to hand over Trump’s tax returns.
    It’s now July 1 and House Democrats have taken no further action.

    It was foreseeable that Trump’s low quality hires would refuse to comply with the law. They can’t make a demand and then not have a plan to try to enforce it. They would have been better off not making it. They made a specific promise to get the returns. I didn’t say it was important- they did. This is what we gave up impeachment for? Nothing? They made a political decision to forgo the constitutional remedy for breaking the law while in office and that didn’t even work for them politically?

  164. 164.

    rikyrah

    @Kay:

    They can’t do this:

    On May 17, Treasury refused to comply with a subpoena to hand over Trump’s tax returns.
    It’s now July 1 and House Democrats have taken no further action.

    It was foreseeable that Trump’s low quality hires would refuse to comply with the law. They can’t make a demand and then not have a plan to try to enforce it. They would have been better off not making it. They made a specific promise to get the returns. I didn’t say it was important- they did. This is what we gave up impeachment for? Nothing? They made a political decision to forgo the constitutional remedy for breaking the law while in office and that didn’t even work for them politically?

    I can’t agree with you more, Kay.

    Send folks to arrest them. I have no problem with that.

  165. 165.

    James C.

    Hello everyone,

    I’m a lurker here, and I hate to make this my first post, but I have a pet dilemma. Yesterday I rescued an orange tabby kitten from a highway near my home (I live in central Ohio). A sibling had already been hit and killed. He’s a little shy, but healthy and quite happy. Problem is, I’m really not able to handle the responsibility right now. All of the local cat rescue is saturated with kittens, so they won’t take him. I’m heading out of town for a couple weeks later this month, and I just don’t know what to do. Is there are cat fancier out there who wants to adopt lil’ buddy? Best wishes to all of you.

  166. 166.

    Kay

    @Betty Cracker:

    I don’t think the D base would care if they pursued impeachment or corruption – I think the impeachment fever is an online thing. But they have to do something with a majority or they can’t campaign against Trump to keep it and the D base very much want them to campaign against Trump. They want them to attack Trump. They don’t care how they do it.

    I used to think I had to explain what I was doing to my people. But that’s ego – they don’t care. They want me to figure it out and leave them out of it. That’s why they pay me- so they don’t have to figure it out. They check out completely during explanations, in the same way I check out when the tech person starts explaining. I’m not interested in the details of his job. I want him to be the expert. I have other things to do.

  167. 167.

    rikyrah

    @Kay:

    But they have to do something with a majority or they can’t campaign against Trump to keep it and the D base very much want them to campaign against Trump. They want them to attack Trump. They don’t care how they do it.

    clap clap clap clap

    T-R-U-T-H

  168. 168.

    Immanentize

    @Kay: @rikyrah:
    Hey, Judgers and Nervous Nellies! You were heard even from an almost top 10K blog! The House just sued for Trump Tax returns.

  170. 170.

    Origuy

    @Paul in Saint Augustine: No matter what Trump does or doesn’t do, on January 20, 2021, the Secret Service is going to start treating him like an ex-President. I doubt the people who are guarding him every day are going to be sorry to see him go. Except for the person with the nuclear football, there won’t be a lot of military in the White House that day.

  171. 171.

    rikyrah

    @Kay:

    @Betty Cracker:

    I don’t think the D base would care if they pursued impeachment or corruption – I think the impeachment fever is an online thing. But they have to do something with a majority or they can’t campaign against Trump to keep it and the D base very much want them to campaign against Trump. They want them to attack Trump. They don’t care how they do it.

    There is SOOO much corruption. WHY aren’t we seeing the head of whomever is over those Concentration Camps being hauled in front of Congress?

  172. 172.

    Tenar Arha

    @James C.: The blog is currently being redesigned but there should be links on the laptop version of the site on the top right of the page. Email pics of the kitten & your pet bleg to Anne Laurie &/or TaMara &/ Betty Cracker &/ well you get the picture.

    They’ll undoubtedly post it ?. We love the pet posts & people will always chip in even for transport. (Including vet checks if the kitten needs one?)

  173. 173.

    SWMBO

    @Betty Cracker: The Soviet Union stayed in Afghanistan until their economy and military were decimated. I suspect Putin wants us there for much the same effect.

  175. 175.

    Rand Careaga

    There is SOOO much corruption. WHY aren’t we seeing the head of whomever is over those Concentration Camps being hauled in front of Congress?

    Ummm…because he’d ignore the subpoena.

  176. 176.

    catclub

    @RAVEN: The problem with that date is, if you get a letter on retirement, it might have been signed by
    Trump. If no letter, nevermind.

  177. 177.

    J R in WV

    @Kay:

    I’m not understanding why state officials don’t get child abuse search warrants, take a judge with to sign arrest warrants depending upon what is found with the search warrants, show up with armored vehicles and child protective service workers, take all employees working into custody if the kids aren’t clean, healthy, responsive and well fed.

    Seize all the documents, separate everyone and interview them, and arrest people for inconsistencies in their testimony. Stop fooling around with these monsters. Child abuse is a state crime, for crying out loud.

    ETA: If documentation is not sufficient, warrants for kidnapping on these folks…

  178. 178.

    Jay Noble

    @J R in WV: EXACTLY!!! The Congressional Delegations could do this too, I think. Beyond that it’s time for the protesters to storm the gates livestreaming the wholle time and rescuing those people.

  179. 179.

    SWMBO

    @J R in WV: How about fraud under RICO for taking money from the government and not upholding the contract? How about not only child abuse and kidnapping but trafficking as well. Cruella DeVos has made a few coins selling these kids through her adoption agency.

  180. 180.

    J R in WV

    @James C.:

    Hi lurking James C. I just got home from running errands, and haven’t read the comments. I’m in SW WVa and while not in the market for a kitty, we could be a family of last resort.

    If someone closer can help, that would be best… we have two cats and a dog, and may have a couple more dogs soon…

    Best of luck, and thanks for saving the little kitty… you must be a good person to do that!!

  181. 181.

    Peter VE

    Of course, the blonde in the little black dress goes in the middle, everyone gazes adoringly at her, and the minority women are pushed to the edge. What exactly is the message here?

  182. 182.

    frosty

    @catclub: Private consulting engineering company, ni Trump letter.

    My Eagle Scout card was “signed” by LBJ (fuck LBJ). One year later and it would have been Nixon (fuck Tricky Dick) which would have been worse.

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