I would like to see more opinion polling on the issues the country faces. There are, of course, the inevitable polls on the horse race, but they tell us (and the politicians) little about the issues that are important to people and how they want their government to deal with them.
Our President continues to damage the country in a multitude of ways. The Republican Party stands by with its program of appointing conservative judges and passing tax cuts for the rich.
Impeachment – the bringing of charges against the President – must originate in the House. Hearings to support a vote of impeachment will take time, and it appears that there is not yet majority support in the House for impeachment. Nancy Pelosi has publicly favored waiting for the 2020 election rather than impeachment. There is some sense to that stand, but Donald Trump is damaging the country right now.
What can be done to stop or slow down the damage? And what needs to be done to build votes to remove Trump from office?
Nancy Pelosi seems to be trying to triangulate between “the Squad” – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, and Ayanna Pressley – and the conservative wing of the House Democratic caucus, some of whom were elected in 2018 in districts that went for Trump in 2016. Criticizing the Squad to an unfriendly interviewer, however, leaned too far in the direction of protecting the conservative wing from what they might consider radical thought.
As an Australian I find it odd that Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, Pressley and Tlaib are seen as the “far left” when they’re just fighting for things that, well, pretty much every other developed country has had for years.
Just my two cents.
— Elle De Sylva ??? (@elle_desylva) July 21, 2019
Understanding why those districts flipped, however, and how broad support for the ideas of the Squad may be, would seem to be a good idea. My impression – largely from social media, which may not be indicative of the country at large – is that people want to see the corruption and incompetence of the Trump administration called out and policies advanced to turn back from the extreme inequalities Republican policies have inflicted on the country.
I’m not seeing much in the way of polling on those questions.
Should Democrats explicitly call out racists and demand healthcare for everyone? Are people okay with tax increases, particularly on the rich? How many see women of color as the future of the party? How many support the strategy of the House passing bills to make a point, even if the Senate won’t pass them? How many think we should impeach the President? Is there any point in trying to win those Trump voters so frequently interviewed in Midwest diners? Who are the voters who voted for Obama and then Trump, and why? Why did those districts turn around to elect conservative Democrats? Should Democrats call out the crimes Trump has been accused of?
There are a great many more questions. How they are phrased is important. Joe Biden, and perhaps Nancy Pelosi, seem to believe that bipartisan action is what people want. If you ask people whether they think bipartisan action is desirable, they’re likely to say yes. You might get a different answer if you ask whether they think that the current Republican Party is willing to work with Democrats to pass particular legislation.
How many think that the Republican Party needs to be rebuilt from the ground up? Fair is fair, after all the Republicans who are telling Democrats how to run their campaign.
It seems to me that there is a movement away from Trump. On Twitter, the responses to Trump’s tweets are becoming more and more negative. Polls immediately after his racist remarks about the Squad showed large majorities opposed to that racism. Here’s some polling that seems to say that more Americans support the Squad than support Trump.
And here’s a Twitter thread that draws on actual experience in defeating David Duke. The advice is to run explicitly against the racist. Policies are secondary. The whole thread is worth reading. It starts off with a description of the campaign against Duke and the conventional advice from the conventional consultants, which is very like what Pelosi seems to be guided by.
Don’t try to flip those folks in MAGA hats in the diners so beloved of interviewers. Drive up turnout among folks who stayed home in 2016.
25/ Then there is almost no way to know what would get you to make up your mind…I doubt it's a plan to deal with Wall Street though, or infrastructure, or tax policy…
— Tim Wise (@timjacobwise) July 21, 2019
27/ And what I know for a FACT is that this message–that Trumpism is a threat to everything we care about and love about this country–is what will inspire the Dem base to vote…and THAT is what this election is about…
— Tim Wise (@timjacobwise) July 21, 2019
32/ He is a white nationalist. He is an authoritarian. He and his cult are a threat to the future of the nation and world because of their hatreds. His movement betrays the country's promise. THAT is the message that will drive turnout. Not debates over marginal tax rates…
— Tim Wise (@timjacobwise) July 21, 2019
Looks to me like this is the way forward. The presidential candidates, particularly Elizabeth Warren, are coming up with a great stock of policies. They’re essential, but not what the party should lead withdemoc
Pelosi could help by, say, one needling statement (NOT tweet) every day pointing out Trump’s racism, dishonesty, incompetence, pettiness – there’s a lot of material there that polling could supply and reinforce. That would have the added advantage of upsetting Trump. Not to fight with him, just to let people know she’s on the job and to keep Trump off balance.
I know I’d feel a lot better if we heard more of this from her.
rikyrah
HMMPH
What drove the New Yorker’s Jane Mayer into Al Franken denialism?
In a startling turn, the ordinarily terrific reporter Jane Mayer veers deep into Al Franken truther territory
AMANDA MARCOTTE
JULY 22, 2019 8:00PM (UTC)
The Moar You Know
So would I. The last time I can recall seeing such a thing was when Bush Jr. was president, and issues were just so…passe, you know. The “war on terror” that wasn’t and all that was the in thing. Sure would like to know what my fellow citizens think about most of the country being broke, personally.
Betty Cracker
I read the entire Tim Wise thread earlier, and he makes a convincing case. I agree with what he says about people who call Trump’s outrageous bullshit a distraction. That said, I’m not sure how closely the experience in Louisiana with Duke tracks with our current national circumstance: a racist, sexist, xenophobic demagogue already sitting in the White House. I hope our candidate makes both arguments — that Trump is an existential threat and that Republican Party is too because it enables Trump to enact a plutocratic agenda.
Omnes Omnibus
I have been saying that here for at least two years.
ETA: Both people who stayed home because they because they thought it wouldn’t make a difference and (especially) those who wanted to vote and were prevented from doing so by voter suppression tactics.
CatFacts
Anyone have reliable information on the new immigration policy that would allow ICE to deport residents from anywhere in the U.S. without much judicial review? Apparently, it’s expanding their powers from the already-huge 100-mile border zone to the rest of the country, and could target people who have been residents here for 2 years…
laura
Polls or no, there’s nothing stopping leadership from leading, except a reluctance to lead. Calling out the racists would be a good step, it is the right and the moral thing to do. Then, let the chips fall where they may.
Also, I hope Al Franken runs for Senate again. Got to meet him twice back in the Air America days and when I confessed that one of my two regrets in life was passing on tickets to the Last Waltz, he reassured me it was a deeply stoopid and regretful thing to do.
p.a.
Props to any Dems who clearly, loudly, point out Drumpf’s dementia and the fact that the country is probably being run by animated cream cheese sculpture Mike Pence and whoever is this week’s presidential CoS. Will have the added bonus of driving Drumpf berserk and muddying whatev his relationship is with Pence.
Betty Cracker
@CatFacts: ThinkProgress has an article about it here.
rikyrah
We need OUR voters…especially those who were voter suppressed in 2016
Ksmiami
Fight the fuckers if it comes down to violence so be it- there can be no living with these morons anyway
Another Scott
@CatFacts: Reuters:
It should get slapped down quickly by a judge. But we know Donnie will keep trying, or at least keep talking about it in an attempt to scare everyone into thinking he’s trying.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
The Moar You Know
@CatFacts: Nothing save the obvious: it’s yet another attempt at hostage-taking by the GOP. Trump wants to make Pelosi grovel, the budget is coming up for negotiation, and he knows the plight of immigrants is a huge weak spot for Dems. He’s hoping to at least avoid another round of public humiliation like he got last time.
Grind your teeth because they are going to hurt a lot of people, but giving into their demands will only make it much worse.
schrodingers_cat
I am tired of folks bashing Pelosi non-stop for every ill that Orange T inflicts on us.
CatFacts
Thanks, everybody!
MJS
@Betty Cracker: That Tim Wise thread kind of pissed me off because we’re still 7 months away from the first primary. As sure as Trump tweets from the toilet, if all the Democratic candidates were doing right now was ripping Trump, the media would be advancing the “Democrats have no plans” narrative. The point now is for the candidates to draw distinctions between themselves and the other Democratic candidates. Hence all of Warren’s plans, and the plans and policies being espoused by the other candidates. Yes, candidates should also be ripping Trump, and many if not all of them are. But they first have to win the nomination, and unlike idiot Republicans, Democratic voters want to know what the candidates are actually going to do if nominated. Wise’s comparison with the Duke campaigns completely ignores the difference between a primary election and a general election.
schrodingers_cat
@MJS: I have no time for people who are focusing their ire on Ds and not Orange. Focus people, focus.
Suzanne
@Omnes Omnibus: And you have been correct for at least two years.
The coalition:
1) Minorities and immigrants
2) Young people
3) Urban dwellers
4) College-educated white people
Run up the score there.
Spider-Dan
The problem I have with Wise’s assessment is that Hillary did a pretty good job of NOT treating Trump like Romney; she spent relatively little time going after him over tax cuts or health care, and more time going after him as a deplorable. And we all saw what happened: even without Comey, the election would still have been a nailbiter.
schrodingers_cat
@Suzanne: Orange won college educated white men, narrowly.
Wapiti
@MJS: Agreed. While it may be the right think to attack Trump and the GOP as racists, that’s not what the primary is about. The primary candidates need to be making their cases to the primary voters – then after the nomination, turn towards the center and start the attacks. Until then, non-candidates should be on the attack.
Cheryl Rofer
@Spider-Dan: But we don’t have the counter example: what would have happened if Clinton had gone after Trump on the policies. Would that have been better or worse? We just don’t know.
@MJS: As I said up top, we need the policies, but they aren’t enough. And you are right that now is the time for the candidates to be hashing out the policies, which they are doing. That’s why I suggested that it should be Pelosi (for now) delivering the zingers to Trump.
Mike in NC
Fat Bastard’s racism and disdain for our Constitution needs to be hung around his neck like the proverbial albatross.
Have yet to run into anybody who voted for Obama and then Trump. I’d expect to run into Bigfoot before that happened.
MJS
@schrodingers_cat: I may be misunderstanding you, but I took Wise’s reference to “it’s not about marginal tax rates” to be swipe at Warren and anyone else who isn’t ripping Trump 24/7. I think there’s plenty of opportunity to point out Trump’s unfitness for office AND for the candidates to describe their plans and policies. Debates that are nothing but consecutive nights of 10+ candidates pointing out Trump’s failings, regardless of what the question is, will lead to a media narrative of “Dems have no plans.”
CatFacts
If Politico is to be believed, Pence’s sudden cancellation of his trip to NH a few weeks ago had nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with the fact that Pence was scheduled to visit an opiod treatment center run by a guy who was in the process of being busted by the feds for dealing. Oopsie!
Zelma
It was very difficult to go after Trump on policies as he didn’t really have any. And he still doesn’t. Except anti-immigration. I know that folks talk about how the Democrats in 2018 ran on health care and other policies. But I think it’s pretty clear that it was Trump himself who drove the turnout. And he will drive the turnout in 2020 too.
Granted the actions of Trump’s administration have been horrible and that should be pointed out early and often. BTW, I was going to say “policies” rather than “actions,” but I decided that was not the right way to frame the issue. It’s the actions that will resonate with voters. “Policy” is too abstract.
schrodingers_cat
@MJS: I was criticizing Wise, I agree with you for the most part.
Betty Cracker
@MJS: Agree with your points, but I didn’t read Wise’s comments as a slam on what Dems are doing now. Maybe that’s a fair interpretation of what he meant, but it didn’t land that way with me.
Suzanne
@schrodingers_cat:
He didn’t win college-educated white women.
sukabi
The thing about issue focused polling is that there couldn’t be the weaseling about how the country is divided on this or that. the focus on ideology rather than actual substance maintains the status quo and lets the looting continue.
Cheryl Rofer
@Betty Cracker: @MJS: This is precisely why I’d like to see more polling on how the electorate feels about our would-be autocrat. How many are down with a Nazi replay? How many want Trump out ASAP? How many want to jump ahead to democratic socialism? And so on.
Laurent Castellucci
“And what I know for a FACT is that this message–that Trumpism is a threat to everything we care about and love about this country–is what will inspire the Dem base to vote.”
How does he know this for a FACT? His evidence is that the results from a race thirty years ago can be interpreted in a way that confirms what he already wants to believe.
Look, I happen to be on the “trying to win back Trumpers is useless” side of things, but the Wise piece just seems like a lot of hot air.
As others have pointed out, he seems to think Hillary didn’t point these things out and that the media reported on it fairly. He seems to be attacking the Dems for not being all anti Trump all the time and that if they are they won’t be attacked by the media constantly for having no plans.
I do think Trump’s awfulness is something that needs to be targeted, but his overconfidence in his gut feelings doesn’t actually inspire trust.
Cheryl Rofer
@Laurent Castellucci: Gut feelings are what Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, the candidates, and we are working on. That’s why we need polls.
Princess
With respect to Tim Wise — what’s he’s describing is basically Hillary’s 2016 campaign. And that didn’t turn out…well enough. Two years later, I can remember what Trump stood for — MAGA, anti-trade, anti-immigrantion. I still remember what Bernie stood for — healthcare, free college, break up the banks. I could not tell you what Hillary’s three big ideas were and I supported her enthusiastically in the primary and in November. Her campaign was 90% attacks on Trump and 10% appeals to suburban women on narrow issues. And enough people stayed home or went third party (or were disenfranchised, but we can count on that happening again) that we lost. I fully expect 2020 to see higher GOP turnout as evangelicals who weren’t sure he hated women enough flock to vote for him now they know he does. Sure, we need to hammer an anti-Trump message. But we also need a leader who is able to communicate simple, exciting, motivating ideas to Democrats and Independents.
Cheryl Rofer
I think that Wise’s analogy to beating David Duke is a good one. During the 2016 campaign, the public didn’t know Trump as the autocrat and racist that he has shown himself to be. It was there in the record, but most people don’t consult the record. And we don’t know how the election would have turned out if Clinton had run a different sort of campaign.
I think that Wise identifies the essential issue: turnout. The argument that we have to save the country from Trump, now that we’ve seen him in office, will be persuasive. And yes, good policies too. But at the moment, we’ve got to get the country back first. And Trump has a lot of liabilities.
Again, polling would help to clarify the relative importance of the various factors.
rikyrah
I agree with Wise and this thread
PJ
@rikyrah: Either the writer you’ve quoted didn’t read the Mayer piece, or deliberately distorted what she reported – the fact is, there never was any corroborating evidence for the other seven accusers, and when taken at face value in their own words, they turn out to be BS – he looked “as if he was going to kiss me”, he “squeezed my waist” during the photo I requested we take together, where I put my arm over his shoulder, etc.
The one other important thing from Mayer’s article is that is shows that Schumer is great at beating down members of his own party in service of Roger Stone, while his performance over the last two and a half years has shown that he is, at best, milquetoast when confronting Trump and McConnell. If anyone credible primaries him, I will be donating lots of money to them.
James E Powell
@schrodingers_cat:
Do you think he will win them in 2020? I am a college plus educated white male from the kind of suburb where Reagan is worshiped just below Jesus and Jack Nicklaus. My anecdotal read on my demographic in 2016 was that nearly all of them were so conditioned by the 20+ year smear campaign against Hillary Clinton that they just could not bring themselves to vote for her.
I don’t have any sense of how my demographic is responding to the fact of Trump in the White House because I stopped speaking to nearly all of them. I do wonder if they are okay with all this.
Tenar Arha
@Cheryl Rofer: Polls are definitely important tools. I’m almost positive that this blind spot though is based on the obviously inadequate political reporting we do manage to get from the heavily weighted for GOP framed media. Which is why I come around that decent polling would be great because the useless Cilizzas of that world sometimes actually pay attention to that instead of their just-so narratives.
But I cannot get out of my head that Dems seem lost/confused even though the 2018 election was only 8.5 months ago. I mean an election where there were 41 (?) flipped seats, & people like Ayanna Pressley, Katie Porter, Sharice Davids, & Lauren Underwood all winning. These women all seemed to run on a combo of generational change, holding the government accountable, & trying to get stuff passed to help their constituents. Basically the campaigns all seemed to be based around changing out unresponsive representatives for responsive ones. I admit it confounds me sometimes that this seems unclear to Democratic politicians.
FelonyGovt
I agree that it would be good to see polling, and that (hopefully) many Americans are disgusted by Trump’s racism, misogyny, corruption, etc.
I also think that many Americans are just tired of him. Tired of hearing him, seeing him, reading his tweets, dealing with his outbursts and drama. That’s why we need to nominate someone who is dignified, intelligent, well-spoken. Pretty much any of our candidates except Bernie.
Cheryl Rofer
@Tenar Arha: Could not agree more.
Chip Daniels
Trump has no policy, really about anything except race.
There isn’t any coherent policy regarding the economy, justice, foreign policy, the environment, or anything else.
The only policy is What Favors White Folks, and What Doesn’t.
So yeah, lets make it about policy, his policy of white supremacy.
Haroldo
@Tenar Arha:
Strong concurrence.
O. Felix Culpa
I agree with the need for quality polling data. Without that, we’re just speculating about what Democrats and voters at large actually want. The activists I associate with mostly want out and proud liberal policy and strong refudiation of Trump’s racism. They can’t wait to get to the polls to vote the bastid out. But we don’t know what appeals to and MOTIVATES non-activists to get their butts to the polls. We can guess and we like to think that other people think like us, but without data, we don’t know. This is not an election we can afford to lose. We need effective messaging based on knowledge, not guesswork or our own biases or the “wisdom” of the Midwest diner.
Dan B
I’m thinking of Frank Luntz and the effect his polling had on the GOP. He combined polling and focus group reactions to craft communication strategies to pitch GOP adjacent voters to believe they were being heard and it motivated the base to get out to vote. The Dems could do the same but seem to not care. Progressives could fill that void.
smintheus
You’re criticizing Elizabeth Warren’s approach when in multiple polls she leads Trump in head to head match ups? And fwiw I don’t see her shying away from calling Trump a racist.