Here’s a slightly wonky way into a pragmatic reason why the moral catastrophe that is Republican immigration crimes is bad for America’s bottom line, and not just its moral standing.
Changing U.S. demographics can decrease the productive capacity of the economy through slowing labor force participation and population growth. Holding labor productivity constant, slowing participation and population growth lower potential gross domestic product (GDP) and the natural rate of interest. The natural rate could also be lower because of increased saving; however, Americans are saving less than they did 30 years ago. Most likely, changing U.S. demographics are reducing the U.S. natural rate of interest by decreasing potential output.
That’s from a research note out of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. As glossed in the press release from the bank, the authors have found that,
Potential output is the amount of goods and services that an economy can produce when it fully employs its available resources.
If potential output declines, Hong and Shell said, the natural rate of interest declines with it.
“An aging population and slowing population growth limit the supply of available workers in an economy,” Hong and Shell wrote. “Therefore, holding labor productivity constant, a decrease in workers—a higher old-age dependency ratio—reduces the output generated by an economy.”
They continued: “A smaller working-age population means fewer people with a lot of disposable income to consume. These factors decrease an economy’s productive capacity and thereby lower the natural rate.”
So, the thinking goes, Americans are living longer and having fewer children … which means more retirees and fewer workers … which means lower potential output … which means a lower natural rate of interest.
That is: fewer folks being born into the existing US population means lower growth going forward. That means that a growing gap between what the American economy could produce and what it actually can generate. Given that the growing fraction of Americans who are older and all or mostly out of the workforce is supported by the economic activity of those younger working cohorts, that means harder times to come for those least able to make bank on their own behalf, people who in a civilized society would be able to enjoy a respite after their prime working days are done.
So what’s the connection to immigration?
Simple: if domestic babies aren’t going to conceive and birth themselves, then the only way to push America’s labor force that can drive the US output towards its full potential is to welcome younger, ambitious and hard working folks who might want to live and work here.
You know: immigrants. The people on whom the Trump-led Republican adminstration is committing crimes against humanity.*
So, yeah, ICE and CBP and the concentration camps of the American Gulag are a moral catastrophe, a lasting shame for every American.
They’re also dumb, dumb, dumb just on the level of dollars and sense.
Top 0′ the Sunday to y’all. This thread is open for bidness.
*An aside: for various reasons I’ve had to look up population figures for London in the seventeenth and early eighteenth century. Through just about all of that period, deaths exceeded births in that hugely unhealthy city, and yet the the metropolis grew substantially. Without digging deep into my files, here’s a quick example. In the 1670s, about half a million lived in London. Forty years late, that number was up to 630,000. Where did that additional 25% come from? Mostly from internal migration, the countryside pouring into the big city. (And by big, I mean unique. The next largest English city — Norwich! — had a population of about 25,000, if my memory is serving me) and the numbers went down fast from there. Not sure why I bring all that up, but heck, fun facts are fun.
Image: Philip Zec, Women of Britain Come into the Factories, 1941
Cheryl Rofer
I hate to say this, Tom, but they’ve got a solution. Force women into being baby-making machines.
zhena gogolia
Sorry to be OT, but I’m freaking about about the fact that Coats has been ousted because he wanted to protect our elections — and Trump is nominating Ratcliffe — the guy who called Mueller “un-American.” His qualifications: being mayor of Heath, TX (pop. 8000).
Baud
Not with that attitude.
zhena gogolia
Everybody look at the pictures from Russia yesterday — this is our future.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
I thought the lefty Internet wanted more protests.
Kyle
I mean, this isn’t theory – look at Japan. 1st world nations with no immigration slowly fade into irrelevance.
Emma
This administration has screwed the country for several generations.
MagdaInBlack
@Cheryl Rofer:
You beat me to it.
Sab
@zhena gogolia: Is he going to be acting DNI, or do we get to watch 100% of Republican senators vote to approve him?
rikyrah
@zhena gogolia:
Only the best people???
Tom Levenson
@zhena gogolia: Holy fuck.
SiubhanDuinne
@zhena gogolia:
I never heard of Ratcliffe until the Mueller testimony the other day, but of all the Republican questioners on those committees — and the competition here is fierce — he was by far the most horrible. The Presidency, the Senate, the DOJ, the SCOTUS and federal courts, now the intelligence community. They have all, like the rats they are, gone over the cliffe.
zhena gogolia
@Sab:
I would guess the latter.
Isn’t it astonishing that the entire body of Republican congresspeople are traitors?
Baud
@Sab:
I don’t think DNI is a Senate confirmed position.
SiubhanDuinne
@Sab:
Apparently Trump will announce an acting director soon. Ratcliffe will go through the Senate
rubber stampconfirmation process.Sab
@Baud:Sigh. I was hoping to have another thing against Rob Portman.
Baud
@SiubhanDuinne:
I guess I’m wrong.
opiejeanne
@zhena gogolia: isn’t it astonishing that everyone doesn’t recognize this?
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
I thought I remembered Coats being confirmed.
Patricia Kayden
@Cheryl Rofer: That would just push up the number of illegal abortions or women leaving red states to procure abortions.
zhena gogolia
@opiejeanne:
They’re uncomprehending sheep. They’re having barbecues. I know — I live among them.
PsiFighter37
@Baud: It absolutely it.
Kamala Harris is on the Senate Intelligence Committee, so it should be a good one.
PF37 +3
SiubhanDuinne
@Baud:
Wikipedia says it is. You gonna argue with Wikipedia?
SFAW
@zhena gogolia:
Five years ago, maybe. Now? As the kids say: “Not so much.”
Baud
@SiubhanDuinne:
Maybe I’ll modify Wikipedia.
SFAW
@Patricia Kayden:
You mean Gilead?
ETA: And I think it would probably be “attempting to leave,” with guards at the border. No, I’m not kidding as much as I’d like.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
They comprehend. They just hate you more than they care about the United States.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: It is. See page 42.
SiubhanDuinne
@PsiFighter37:
That will make it TV Worth Watching, but won’t change the outcome.
Although I fully expect something to arise in the hearings or leaked from opp research on Ratcliffe that will cause Susan Collins to chew her lower lip in concern for a day or two.
Sab
@Baud: I googled it. It’s a confirmable position.
Litlebritdifrnt
So that means Twitler stealing a GOP Rep from Congress leaves another open seat or does the Governor get to appoint someone. Just curious.
Baud
@Litlebritdifrnt:
Usually, House members are replaced by special election. But I’m probably wrong on that too.
JimV
Wait, what? We need an ever-expanding population so we can make and sell them more schlock and keep our economy and the stock market growing? Our (world) population already consumes renewable resources about three times faster than they grow. I for one would rather have a sustainable economy, not a pyramid scheme.
Yes, we should accept immigrants who need asylum and those who soon will be fleeing the equatorial regions due to climate change, but the economic gospel of growth has got to be abandoned. Because things that can’t go on forever won’t.
The Dangerman
@zhena gogolia:
You forgot he slobbed Trump’s knob in his qualifications. How that prevents another 9/11 is a mystery.
Omnes Omnibus
@JimV: I’m sorry; are you arguing that the only immigrant allowed should be refugees?
Sab
@Omnes Omnibus: It figures one of our resident lawyers would go beyond google and wikipedia looking for better authority.
Makes the rest of us look bad //.
Omnes Omnibus
@Sab: I can’t help myself.
Kay
Hmmm. Interesting. That’s kind of a big boost for the pro-impeachers, I think.
patrick II
It would seem that the necessity of increasing population for economic success is in conflict with the idea that overpopulation is a major driver of climate change and more generally negative impact on the environment such as species extinction due to loss of habitat. Perhaps the solution is not an economic system that constantly requires more people but one that can remain successful and stable without needing population growth.
Litlebritdifrnt
Again I urge anyone who has the ability to watch “Years and Years” it is a terrifying look at what we are all facing if we don’t do something NOW.
SiubhanDuinne
@Baud:
Not saying you’re wrong, Baud. My sense (unconfirmed by Wikipedia) is that each state makes its own rules. In some states, the governor would appoint a replacement right away, to serve out the full unexpired term; in others, would appoint a replacement but call a special election to take place before the next general; and in still others, would call a special but leave the seat vacant in the interim. I think it also may depend on timing.
schrodingers_cat
@Omnes Omnibus: Nativism and xenophobia, its not just for RWNJs. Tribune of the masses from Vt, is one of the most anti-immigrant senators out there. He has moderated his stances, or at least paid lip service to DACA, since he started running for President.
JPL
@zhena gogolia: Look on the bright side, Nunes was rumored to be the successor. Ratcliffe reminds me of Michael Scott from The Office. Trump only picks the best kiss my ass folks.
Jay
motherjones.com/crime-justice/2019/07/inside-the-courtroom-where-every-asylum-seeker-gets-rejected/
debbie
@zhena gogolia:
Do you buy that the opposition leader had a”serious allergic reaction” in jail?
JPL
@debbie: Well I guess falling out a window wasn’t plausible .
joel hanes
fewer folks being born into the existing US population means lower growth going forward
and thus, less climate change, all other things being equal.
I don’t know how to change the belief that we must have economic growth at all costs, but it’s going to kill us all if it doesn’t change.
Jay
James E Powell
@joel hanes:
Unfortunately, it is the root assumption of nearly every American who buys a house.
debbie
@zhena gogolia:
My heart kinda sunk when I heard that, but I’m going to hold off on despair for now.
schrodingers_cat
@Litlebritdifrnt: How have you been? Hopefully your husband’s immigration application woes behind you now.
You sound so much happier since you moved.
Jay
@joel hanes:
Population growth is a key driver of economic growth.
( not all economic growth is bad or a driver of global warming)
Births are one means of recruitment, but birthrates are down because of the economic conditions of the precariate.
Immigration is another key driver, but that too is being choked off in the US by political and economic policies.
If the situation continues, then the US will suffer the Japan Syndrome.
JoeyJoeJoe
@SiubhanDuinne: I believe that for the House, while states can decide their own schedule for a special election, there must be an election; house members cannot be appointed. Senators can be appointed, though.
JoeyJoeJoe
Also, Ratcliffe’s district is super Republican now. Trivia: Sam Rayburn used to hold this seat, though the lines were very different back then. It’s apparently the only Texas district that swung towards the Republican nominee in 2016 relative to the nation.
zhena gogolia
@debbie:
I have no idea.
I speak Russian but I have no special knowledge of these things. I’m just worried.
joel hanes
This is the worst timeline.
joel hanes
@Jay:
If the situation continues, then the US will suffer the Japan Syndrome.
And if the alternative to Japan Syndrome is that 50% of the macroscopic species on earth go extinct within the next 100 years, does Japan Syndrome still look so scary to you?
Climate change is an existential threat. If you’re not terrified and willing to make tradeoffs to avert it, you’re closing your eyes to a situation you do not wish to acknowledge.
Miss Bianca
@JPL: I predict that I, for one, would have a severe allergic reaction to being defenestrated.
Omnes Omnibus
@Miss Bianca: Blunt force trauma, severe allergic reaction. Whatever….
debbie
@Omnes Omnibus:
Shades of Steve Biko all over again.
Ruckus
One of the issues that my father and I both had while running our business that ran for 33 years was always labor. It was a craft business, the basics could be learned in school but what to do with your hands had to be learned over time. The public high school shops were useless so industry apprenticeships were common. They are somewhat common today and an apprenticeship in Washington state has a program that lists approx 10,000 hrs of on the job training for a tool and die maker, that’s 5 yrs. At the end of that you’d expect to earn $24/hr or $48,000/yr. Not a horrible wage but not outstanding either.
So even without taking the income into account how do we get people to do craft work? It’s not a clean office, there is a level of danger, but we need people to build things or we buy them made somewhere else. And I wonder if it’s actually different in most lines of work.
Just a slightly different angle on the same issue, people to do the work.
Also, white people have never been in short supply of the ability to cut off their own noses or genitalia to spite someone they consider lesser than themselves.
Ruckus
@zhena gogolia:
SATSQ
No.
Jay
@joel hanes:
If your population grows, your economy and innovation grows.
You don’t have to have a baby boom,
The US is currently in the position that they can import that population growth.
If the current trends continue, in a couple of generations you won’t be able to.
joel hanes
@Jay:
Got it. You’re not yet terrified enough to be willing to make hard tradeoffs. Well, most of the world is with you, so you’re in good company.
At present, economic growth means increased environmental impact.
Procopius
I don’t know where I read it, but that was the case for all cities until the germ theory of disease was accepted and means of public hygiene were developed. Even in the 14th Century, when the overall population declined (Black Death) there was a flow from the countryside to the towns. Cities are really quite fragile. If the Hudson tunnel collapses, which is expected to happen any time now, how are they going to bring enough food into New York to prevent starvation? Thanks so much, Chris Christie and Andrew Cuomo. Of course it’s much too expensive to build a new tunnel.
Procopius
@JimV:
You’re going to get one, and it won’t be pretty. Mother Nature doesn’t care! Even now, crops are not going to be good in America this year. I don’t know if it’s going to amount to famine yet, but that is surely coming, along with water wars.
Jerrilynn McNair
Watch Arizona. This is a destination for retirees. Sheriff Joe effectively chased away immigrants. This state is where there is a real worker shortage now. It will only get worst and the coming census might paint a dim future for the state.