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You are here: Home / Past Elections / 2020 Elections / Debate Wrap-Up Open Thread

Debate Wrap-Up Open Thread

by Betty Cracker|  July 30, 201910:44 pm| 130 Comments

This post is in: 2020 Elections, Open Threads, Politics, Our Failed Media Experiment

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I wonder who at CNN decided it should be the Delaney vs Warren show. Warren should send that person a fruit basket.

CNN making it Warren vs Delaney: pic.twitter.com/61cC7hVs1T

— Betty Cracker (@bettycrackerfl) July 31, 2019

What did y’all think?

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Previous Post: « Detroit DNC Debate, Night One, Thread Two
Next Post: Ringfenced for Sanitation Debate Recap: The Dark Psychic Forces Promoter »

Reader Interactions

130Comments

  1. 1.

    WaterGirl

    July 30, 2019 at 10:48 pm

    Betty, I laughed out loud and scared the kitties.

    Stop, stop! He’s already dead.

    Perfect.

  2. 2.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 10:49 pm

    I don’t know. It’s hard to get too excited about Warren beating up on Delaney.

  3. 3.

    Yarrow

    July 30, 2019 at 10:50 pm

    I’m glad Marianne Williamson was on the stage because she made me laugh every time she spoke. Comic relief. i’m not glad she was there in general because it’s dumb for her to be a Dem candidate for president and somehow it should have been stopped. But since she’s there at least I got a laugh.

    I watched the first hour and only a bit of the rest First hour was a lot of people yelling. Did not like.

  4. 4.

    seefleur

    July 30, 2019 at 10:50 pm

    Warren (thumbs up etc.) – that is all…

  5. 5.

    misterpuff

    July 30, 2019 at 10:50 pm

    He’s Dead, Jim

  6. 6.

    feebog

    July 30, 2019 at 10:51 pm

    Yeah, she ate Delaney to lunch. And finished his milkshake. I thought Mayor Pete did well tonight. Williamson needs to be in a small South American country leading a cult.

  7. 7.

    WaterGirl

    July 30, 2019 at 10:52 pm

    @Yarrow: I find it cringe-worthy. I wonder… doesn’t she have any friends who can tell her that she is not being taken seriously and will never be taken seriously as a candidate?

  8. 8.

    dmsilev

    July 30, 2019 at 10:52 pm

    @WaterGirl: Apparently, someone edited Delaney’s Wikipedia biography to say that he died today at the hands of Elizabeth Warren. Already reverted, of course.

  9. 9.

    Martin

    July 30, 2019 at 10:53 pm

    It’s not that Warren killed Delaney, its that she said the thing we’re all thinking. It always good to have a candidate that eyerolls at the same time you do.

  10. 10.

    Yarrow

    July 30, 2019 at 10:55 pm

    @WaterGirl: She’s definitely got that self-help guru way of speaking down pat. I can see her in front of a big group at some “think your life better” convention telling everyone to lean into love and believe it and you can be it and so forth.

    I don’t really mind all that so long as everyone understands the game. In some things I agree with her. She said something last time about how Trump won with hate and the opposite of hate isn’t policy or something like that. She’s not really wrong about that. Doesn’t mean she’d make even a marginally okay president. She shouldn’t be on that stage. But she’s not wrong that Trump won by running on hate.

  11. 11.

    Leto

    July 30, 2019 at 10:57 pm

    @WaterGirl: Haha! I lol’d pretty darn loud too! For the love of spam, we really need more of the vanity candidates off the stage.

  12. 12.

    Mary G

    July 30, 2019 at 10:59 pm

    Warren and Sanders got the most time with 17.9 and 17.6 minutes per WaPo. Hickenlooper and the woo-woo lady got the least at 8.8 and 8.9.

  13. 13.

    Omnes Omnibus

    July 30, 2019 at 11:01 pm

    @feebog:

    Williamson needs to be in a small South American country leading a cult.

    Esalen.

  14. 14.

    Nicole

    July 30, 2019 at 11:02 pm

    Favorite tweet and response I saw on Twitter:

    “Is there an official name for Williamson fans, a la ‘Yang Gang’?”

    “People with measles.”

  15. 15.

    Jay

    July 30, 2019 at 11:02 pm

    Screenshot:

    Someone edited John Delaney's wiki lmao pic.twitter.com/Q88cCo78On— Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) July 31, 2019

  16. 16.

    Jeffro

    July 30, 2019 at 11:02 pm

    I thought it was incredibly stupid.

    Anyone who wants to break out of this nonsense, top/mid/bottom tier or no, should think about buying a couple of minutes (2 max) of airtime just prior to the next one, introduce themselves, be friendly, tell the viewers their top 3 priorities as president, remind the viewers that most Dems (and most Dem candidates) agree on most issues, and that if they punch out now, they’ve saved themselves two hours of valuable summer vacation/chill time. “I’m candidate X and I’ll see you after Labor Day – happy summer!”

  17. 17.

    WaterGirl

    July 30, 2019 at 11:03 pm

    @Yarrow: I can completely see her speaking at a seminar like the one you described. I’m not even saying she’s wrong about anything she says. She’s on the wrong stage; t’s the wrong platform for her, and she’s a laughingstock.

    Vanity candidates, go home and win us the senate. Dog knows we need your help!

    ‘Night all.

  18. 18.

    dmsilev

    July 30, 2019 at 11:03 pm

    @Leto: The next debate, in September, has higher thresholds to qualify. Both the donor and polling thresholds have doubled and a candidate needs to hit both criteria, not just one or the other. That should help weed out the dick and the infirm.

  19. 19.

    Leto

    July 30, 2019 at 11:03 pm

    @WaterGirl: Those “friends” are also “consulting” for her, so as long as the Oprah bucks keep coming, nope, they’re not going to say a thing except: you did so well! They love you! They really love you!

  20. 20.

    jl

    July 30, 2019 at 11:04 pm

    Not too interested whether Warren finished Delaney. His run was not going anyplace anyway. I’m a biased Warren supporter, and I thought she put in the best performance, not only in terms of this debate, but again, very good capsule explanations of the rationales behind her policies and the context of her policies. She’s setting herself up for good narrative that goes across the individual debates.

    Though I think commenters were right that she didn’t have her timing down at the beginning and clock ran out before she finished her pitch. She got the the timing down better later.

    Sanders was very smart not to go against her. I want to see Warren and Harris debate.

  21. 21.

    Mary G

    July 30, 2019 at 11:06 pm

    Warren going for No First Use. Even used the word "preemptively," correctly.WTF, I love Liz Warren now. #DemDebate— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) July 31, 2019

  22. 22.

    zhena gogolia

    July 30, 2019 at 11:06 pm

    @Baud:

    Yeah. I just saw a great clip of Buttigieg addressing the Republicans directly. We need more of that.

  23. 23.

    Leto

    July 30, 2019 at 11:08 pm

    @dmsilev: Yup, and I hope it does exactly that. I know a few people here did, Eric Swallwell who?, but I respect him more for knowing, yup, this is going nowhere, heading back to the House Intel Committee. I get it that it’s still “early” but if you haven’t made the inroads by now, go find something else to do. Cult leader, Governor, state house/senator, federal House/Senator… something productive to help turn this shitshow around.

  24. 24.

    Ohio Mom

    July 30, 2019 at 11:10 pm

    I’ll put on my Pollyanna face and say it’s wonderful and inspiring to hear so many issues discussed from a liberal/progressive viewpoint.

    Healthcare coverage for one. The details of one candidate’s plan over another, who cares?

    No one is suggesting high-risk pools, or tax-deferred private health savings plans, or that it’s people’s own damn fault of they get sick, or letting tne free marlet work its magic by letting plans sell across state lines, or that patients need more skin in time game and should comparison shop, blah, blah, blah.

    Tne Overton Window is being pushed.

  25. 25.

    Omnes Omnibus

    July 30, 2019 at 11:11 pm

    @Mary G: If I can cast my mind back to my Soviet Foreign Policy class in the ’80s, the Soviets said that they would be the first to use nukes. That could be interpreted to mean that they would only use nukes to counter nuke used by the US or it could mean that they would not be the first to use nukes because the US had used them on Japan.

  26. 26.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 30, 2019 at 11:12 pm

    Maya Harris Retweeted Topher Spiro
    Fun Fact: In 2006, Sen. Ted Kennedy introduced a “Medicare for All” bill similar to @KamalaHarris’ new plan. But people out here trying to trademark the phrase & saying she can’t call her plan Medicare for All. ???‍♀️

    IIRC, Kennedy first introduced a Medicare For All bill, based on what we now call a public option, some time in the 90s

  27. 27.

    Jay

    July 30, 2019 at 11:13 pm

    “It starts with the fact that we have to recognize the threat posed by white nationalism. White supremacists pose a threat to the United States like any other terrorist group, like ISIS, like Al Qaeda and leadership starts at the top,” she said.

    Elizabeth Warren Town Hall,
    https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/elizabeth-warren-town-hall-mississippi/h_66180a515503bb1e3775d1b1c4504542

  28. 28.

    laura

    July 30, 2019 at 11:13 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: oh you! I coughed up a kidney laughing…
    I was texting with my cousins and one summed it up swell:
    Recap:

    Nothing much new.

    Marianne Williamson is a whack-a-do.

    Pete was reasoned and the most enjoyable to listen to.

    Bernie wants the kids to get off his lawn.

    Warren has a plan for that.

    6 others showed up, without reason, in my opinion, including Klobuchar and Beto.

    I was put off by a number of the more moderate candidates, who argued against doing much at all really.

    Bernie isn’t a good candidate but he pushed the Overton Window far to the left in 2016, and a number of candidates have taken his positions on and will do better than the angry shouting man would in moving then forward.

    Tomorrow night is Harris, Biden, Castro, Booker, and six others that can drop soon. But won’t. Oh, and Gillibrand is dead to me; see Franken.

  29. 29.

    Steve in the ATL

    July 30, 2019 at 11:16 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: what people? This sounds like a fake complaint.

  30. 30.

    Betty Cracker

    July 30, 2019 at 11:17 pm

    @Nicole: Hahaha!

  31. 31.

    mrmoshpotato

    July 30, 2019 at 11:18 pm

    What did y’all think?

    Glad I didn’t watch the goat rodeo.

    Let me know when we get to Harris and Warren telling Wilmer to fuck off to the forest and take up knitting because the adults are debating.

    ETA: And, yes, that does mean we’d be down to two highly qualified woman and a shouty asshole.

  32. 32.

    satby

    July 30, 2019 at 11:18 pm

    I watched one clip where Mayor Pete was talking about gun violence in schools and Klobuchar is standing next to him grinning like a loon. It struck me as a seriously off affect for the subject. Yeah, she can sit down too.

  33. 33.

    Martin

    July 30, 2019 at 11:19 pm

    @Mary G: The problem with nukes is that their only value is in your willingness to use them pre-emptively. If you aren’t, then someone else will kill you before you can use them. And it’s not even that you intend to use them pre-emptively, it’s that they believe you could.

  34. 34.

    L85NJGT

    July 30, 2019 at 11:19 pm

    I didn’t watch, and had to check wiki to ID Delany.

    I suppose there are some number of stalking horses, or single issue advocates, but if we can’t vote someone off the island after every debate…

  35. 35.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 30, 2019 at 11:21 pm

    @Steve in the ATL: I didn’t watch, but I thought that was a reference to this, letting the old coot know that KH is done pandering to him

    Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ campaign creates ‘I Wrote the Damn Bill‘ stickers

    Cenk Ugyur thinks it was the line of the night!

  36. 36.

    mrmoshpotato

    July 30, 2019 at 11:25 pm

    @mrmoshpotato: *women

  37. 37.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 30, 2019 at 11:25 pm

    twice I’ve flipped on MSNBC tonight and both times Whosits Ryan was talking, this second time to Tweety

    Their event night coverage is so bad: Brian Williams, Tweety, now Centrist Eeyore McCaskill

    ETA: Almost felt bad for Ryan after seeing the clip of him stammering out his would-be zinger at Bernie about yelling

    ETA: Wow, the lighting on Tweety made him look really fucking old

  38. 38.

    satby

    July 30, 2019 at 11:25 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Cenk Ugyur thinks it was the line of the night!

    So did the Berners at the Guardian, they left that as the top line for an hour after he said it. Hardly the zinger they thought it was.

  39. 39.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    July 30, 2019 at 11:26 pm

    Texas GOP Rep. Mike Conaway is retiring after 15 years in Congress. This is the fifth retirement in two weeks.

    why are they fleeing if things are going so well

    The Broderites keep telling me Dump’s racist attacks are good politics, yet those who are actually on the playing field are cutting and running.

  40. 40.

    mrmoshpotato

    July 30, 2019 at 11:27 pm

    @satby:

    I watched one clip where Mayor Pete was talking about gun violence in schools and Klobuchar is standing next to him grinning like a loon.

    Wow. I don’t have words.

  41. 41.

    Martin

    July 30, 2019 at 11:36 pm

    Reminder that due to the stupid CNN draw, tonight was the white people debate. Tomorrow is the POC debate. It’ll be very different.

  42. 42.

    Jay

    July 30, 2019 at 11:40 pm

    @Martin:

    Early in the nuclear arms race, RAND’s William Brodie came up with the concept/theory of Minimally Assured Destruction.

    150 – 300 kt nuclear warheads, distributed across 1 – 3 platforms, ( missiles, bombers, subs) some deployed, some in hardened shelters, would ensure that after an enemies “First Strike”, enough nukes would remain to completely destroy the enemy with a counter strike.

    As nuke count’s skyrocketed in the 1960’s and it became clear to RAND and Brodie that there was no money in selling an affordable policy that nobody, ( except China) wanted, they switched to Mutually Assured Destruction, where the enemy’s nukes, ( estimated or exaggerated) had to be matched one for one.

    Both the Soviets and the US’s doctrine changed, and changed, and changed as the technologies improved, military balances of power and projection changed, alliances changed. The same for France and Britain.

    Thus the Blue Peacock and the Davy Crockett.

  43. 43.

    waratah

    July 30, 2019 at 11:42 pm

    I laughed when I listened to the closing talks, all those tough centrists that were critical of Democrats suddenly remembered they were on the Democratic ticket.

  44. 44.

    Betty Cracker

    July 30, 2019 at 11:45 pm

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Yeah, I remember they were dropping like flies before 2018 too. ?

  45. 45.

    Yarrow

    July 30, 2019 at 11:48 pm

    @satby: Klobuchar’s smile freaked me out from her opening. She was saying, “Let’s get real” with this grin on her face. Like she was happy delivering bad news. Creepy.

  46. 46.

    Shalimar

    July 30, 2019 at 11:54 pm

    @WaterGirl: I’m not sure this is a bad gig for Williamson. She could write abother book, but what does she hhave to say she hasn’t already said in the previous X books? she could speak at seminars for her fans, but thay is unlikely to gathef more than a few hundeed at a time. With the presidential run, she gets donations from all the people who would potentially but her books, some for up to 1000 times what a boook sale pays the author. It’s an easy marketing opportunity for higher income.

    4-5 years from now, the FEC is going to find most of Williamson’s campaign money went into her pocket and she will have to pay a small fine

  47. 47.

    Aleta

    July 30, 2019 at 11:54 pm

    @WaterGirl: “doesn’t she have any friends who can tell her that she … will never be taken seriously as a candidate?”

    To which she might retort: “This journey isn’t about me becoming anything. It’s about America un-doing everything Trump has done so that we can become who we are meant to be in our solar system. It would be impossible only if I never started to walk my path; because winning lives in the heart not the destination.”
    : )

  48. 48.

    Yarrow

    July 30, 2019 at 11:55 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I have this weird soft spot for Tim Ryan. He seems like such a lump who’s trying so hard and just wants to be one of the big kids. I feel like I want to pat him on the head and say, “Good job, big guy. You did the best you could.”

  49. 49.

    Aleta

    July 30, 2019 at 11:56 pm

    @Shalimar: I think so too. And she could get several more books out of the Journey.

  50. 50.

    Jay

    July 30, 2019 at 11:57 pm

    A group of right-wing trolls are pushing (#)DemDebateSoWhite and it’s being boosted by a handful of accounts created in June/July 2018. These nearly identical tweets were posted within 22 min of each other. #DemocraticDebate #CNNDebate 1/ pic.twitter.com/FQMR7orR03— Caroline Orr (@RVAwonk) July 31, 2019

  51. 51.

    patroclus

    July 30, 2019 at 11:58 pm

    My take is that I sure wish those kids would get off Wilmer’s lawn so he’d stop yelling and gesticulating at me wildly.

  52. 52.

    satby

    July 30, 2019 at 11:59 pm

    @Yarrow: glad it wasn’t only me.

    @zhena gogolia this one? Yeah, that was great.
    A check with my former Berniac niece and nephew found them raving about how great Buttigieg did. Delighted they’re off the Wilmer train.

  53. 53.

    Jay

    July 30, 2019 at 11:59 pm

    This account, created yesterday, is spamming the hashtag (#)DemDebateSoWhite and retweeting Carpe Donktum’s tweets using the hashtag. (Noticing a pattern yet?)It has one follower: Right-wing group Campus Hate Watch. #DemocraticDebate #CNNDebate 3/ pic.twitter.com/5WyAWt5Xl0— Caroline Orr (@RVAwonk) July 31, 2019

  54. 54.

    Lyrebird

    July 31, 2019 at 12:00 am

    @satby: iiuc the expression was because Mayor Pete was saying how old he was when Columbine happened, & people were remembering just how young he is.

    She’s not my top candidate, but I have seen one of her interviews on the subject of gun safety and she came across as thoughtful, solid, & realistic.

  55. 55.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    July 31, 2019 at 12:00 am

    @feebog:

    Williamson needs to be in a small South American country leading a cult.

    You know that never ends well.

  56. 56.

    Ohio Mom

    July 31, 2019 at 12:01 am

    @Yarrow: Somebody must have told her she needs to be warmer and fuzzier, and more approachable. Hence the smiling.

    But that’s not who she is and she can’t pretend otherwise at all convincingly. She’s the tough cookie who gives speeches in snow storms.

  57. 57.

    Irony Abounds

    July 31, 2019 at 12:03 am

    @Lyrebird: She’d make a fine President. She just doesn’t have much charisma and as stupid as it may be to judge anyone by their appearance she just doesn’t look like a President (not that Trump does, but he seems to be an exception to every god damn rule ever made).

  58. 58.

    janesays

    July 31, 2019 at 12:06 am

    The good news is that, as of right now, only 7 people will qualify for September’s debate on ABC with the more stringent qualification criteria (2% or higher in at least 4 major polls AND at least 130,000 unique donors)…

    Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Harris, O’Rourke, Sanders, and Warren. Klobuchar is still 10,000 donors shy, and Castro and Yang both need to hit 2% in at least one more poll. None of the other candidates meet either criteria yet.

  59. 59.

    satby

    July 31, 2019 at 12:06 am

    @Lyrebird: so instead of contemplating the reality that school gun slaughter has been going on since a presidential candidate was in high school and we’re on a second generation of children doing active shooter drills Klobuchar was gloating over what she thought was a slip up by the young guy reminding people he was young? Yeah, that’s not actually better.

  60. 60.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    July 31, 2019 at 12:07 am

    @jl: Warren’s problem at the start was she started into a canned story as part of her answer, that was a mistake. Note to candidates: avoid the story about little Timmy being sick and how your program would help, you don’t have the time to tell it(and it really does sound canned).

  61. 61.

    namekarB

    July 31, 2019 at 12:08 am

    My vote is for Mom In Chief. I love her School Teacher manner.

  62. 62.

    eldorado

    July 31, 2019 at 12:13 am

    That should help weed out the dick and the infirm.

    not sure if typo or perfect

  63. 63.

    Lyrebird

    July 31, 2019 at 12:13 am

    @satby: I guess “gloating” is not what I saw when I saw that clip, but I am not a pro face reader, not trying to argue… I agree what @Irony Abounds said about her not being super charismatic is right on.

    When I saw the clip I thought she was thinking “oh shit I am supposed to be smiling and I bet the moderators are not going to let me even talk about my substantive plans on reducing gun violence are they” YMMV, I just remember how much hell people put HRC through about a rueful laugh that got interpreted as not caring about an assault victim.

  64. 64.

    LarryB

    July 31, 2019 at 12:14 am

    @Yarrow: In general, I’m with you about Marianne: She’s an embarrassment. However, her close was powerful, approaching hieratic levels of oratory. For the first time I understand how she makes a living as a motivational speaker. You should have stuck it out.

  65. 65.

    satby

    July 31, 2019 at 12:19 am

    @Lyrebird: maybe my complete lack of familiarity with her is giving me a wrong impression. But for a first impression, it was a negative one. Not the subject for happy face.

  66. 66.

    Aleta

    July 31, 2019 at 12:20 am

    I think Williamson could do something valuable though. After 2016 an alternative health person said to me something Sarandon-like, “Maybe this is what had to happen” etc. If MW convinces some of the ones who didn’t vote last time, because they think they don’t need to engage on “the political plane,” that it’s a spiritual act to vote against Trump —- then she might influence people no other candidate could. She seems committed enough to keep talking about voting after the primary ends.

  67. 67.

    dmsilev

    July 31, 2019 at 12:21 am

    @eldorado: I’d love to claim it was deliberate, but alas just a typo.

  68. 68.

    jl

    July 31, 2019 at 12:25 am

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: True. Surprised she didn’t learn from O’Rourke in the first debate, who tried to do the same thing, with apparently less practice and discipline than Warren, and he couldn’t turn it off until the debate was more than half over.

  69. 69.

    Jay

    July 31, 2019 at 12:32 am

    Makes sense given that armed right-wing militia members came last week to #bloomington market & that a white supremacist just massacred attendees at a Garlic Fest in California. @MayorHamilton #localfood https://t.co/pyFPeyr02r— IU on Strike (@IUonStrike) July 29, 2019

  70. 70.

    Cacti

    July 31, 2019 at 12:33 am

    @satby:

    So did the Berners at the Guardian, they left that as the top line for an hour after he said it. Hardly the zinger they thought it was.

    It’s a cult.

    Of course they thought it was brilliant.

  71. 71.

    TS (the original)

    July 31, 2019 at 12:39 am

    @Yarrow:

    Like she was happy delivering bad news. Creepy.

    Must have been watching trump too often – he loves delivering bad news & is very creepy.

  72. 72.

    Jay

    July 31, 2019 at 12:40 am

    10 years. 180 school shootings. 356 victims.

    Since 2009, at least 177 of America’s schools experienced a shooting. These tragedies are as diverse as our nation, but the depth of trauma is hard to convey. There is no standard definition for what qualifies as a school shooting in the US. Nor is there a universally accepted database. So CNN built our own. We examined 10 years of shootings on K-12 campuses and found two sobering truths: School shootings are increasing, and no type of community is spared

    https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/07/us/ten-years-of-school-shootings-trnd/

  73. 73.

    Jay

    July 31, 2019 at 12:45 am

    Texas Republicans both in public and private are legitimately freaked out about 2020. Part of that is a plea for more resources but a big part is genuine fear about where the state is going. https://t.co/IFw00vMcCk— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) July 31, 2019

  74. 74.

    Jay

    July 31, 2019 at 12:49 am

    A panel of CNN anchors demanding that presidential candidates justify *not* wanting to nuke anybody is a nearly perfect snapshot of 2019 America.— derek davison (@dwdavison) July 31, 2019

  75. 75.

    Jay

    July 31, 2019 at 12:54 am

    The King proclaimed, "WHO WILL BE THE NEXT TO JUMP ON TOP OF THIS SWORD?" then Matt Gaetz loudly shouted, "I WILL!" https://t.co/5Pt0i8KObL— Goad Gatsby (@GoadGatsby) July 30, 2019

  76. 76.

    Martin

    July 31, 2019 at 1:00 am

    @Jay: I did modeling on nuclear proliferation in college. There’s two problems:

    1) Every party starts with the same assumptions:
    a) I’m the rational actor, and I would never initiate a strike, but my enemies are irrational and I must assume they will strike first
    b) The enemy has more capability than I can measure
    c) Because I will only ever be a 2nd strike nation, I have to assume that part of my arsenal will be destroyed, therefore I need more than I think I need

    So you set the policy and decide that you need 20% more weapons than your enemy. You estimate their capability at 100 warheads, so you build 120. Your enemy, running the same calculation measures your 120 and adds 20% taking them to 144. you remeasure at 144, add 20% and end up needing 172. That’s the proliferation part of things.

    2) No party wants to use these, so the way to solve it is to present enough of a threat to your enemy that there is no upside for them to use them. You play into their 1a assumption. That’s deterrence, as so neatly stated by Dr Strangelove:

    Mr. President, it is not only possible, it is essential. That is the whole idea of this machine, you know. Deterrence is the art of producing in the mind of the enemy… the fear to attack. And so, because of the automated and irrevocable decision making process which rules out human meddling, the doomsday machine is terrifying. It’s simple to understand. And completely credible, and convincing.

    It doesn’t matter if there was money behind the idea or not – everyone always comes to the same conclusion. The assumptions necessarily create a race to the bottom. But of course the US is wiling to strike first. We’ve always been willing to do that. That’s the whole function of ballistic missile submarines. They can sit undetected off your coast and destroy your cities before you have a chance to give the counterstrike order. If we didn’t believe in first strike capability, those things wouldn’t exist – and the reality is that we have loads of them.

    Not striking first is obviously the correct and moral answer, but if that’s the answer, then the entire nuclear arsenal and US nuclear policy is pretty much pointless and the whole enterprise needs to be reconsidered. I’m good with that, but I don’t think you can say ‘won’t strike first’ and then walk triumphantly off the stage. It just leaves you with a huge new problem to solve if that’s your position, and I think you should at least acknowledge that.

  77. 77.

    Major Major Major Major

    July 31, 2019 at 1:02 am

    In my opinion Bernie would do better in debates if he shouted less, storing up his energy for a single high-powered sonic attack at the end of the debate

    — pixelatedboat aka “mr tweets” (@pixelatedboat) July 31, 2019

  78. 78.

    Martin

    July 31, 2019 at 1:11 am

    @Major Major Major Major: So does he evolve into Voltorb?

  79. 79.

    Vhh

    July 31, 2019 at 1:15 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: er, think you r missing a negative there in 1st sentence that is belied by 2nd. Soviets claimed they would not use nukes first.

  80. 80.

    Jay

    July 31, 2019 at 1:15 am

    @Martin:

    Thing is, you have mobile launchers. Maybe they won’t find them all, ( aka, the failed Scud Hunt, and that was a desert). You have nukes in hardened shelters that take a direct hit to kill. You have nukes airborne, flying CAP. You have nuke in subs on patrol.

    And you don’t need 6,800 nukes, ( peak arms race), to kill the whole world, you only need 50-150 or so.

    Between the USAF, the USN, the Brits and France, at peak arms race there were 892 nukes ranging from 10kt to 50kt aimed at Moscow alone.

    So China spent about $480 billion building maybe as many as 300 nukes, and spent the $248 trillion they saved and built factories, highways, high speed rail, modern cities, education and other infrastructure.

    The US is going to spend over $21 trillion just disposing of the excess from the Cold War, and that’s just a drop in the bucket.

  81. 81.

    James E Powell

    July 31, 2019 at 1:18 am

    @janesays:

    The good news is that, as of right now, only 7 people will qualify for September’s debate on ABC with the more stringent qualification criteria

    The bad news is that it will be on ABC. We need to put an end to these things. They are not doing Democrats or democracy any good.

  82. 82.

    Martin

    July 31, 2019 at 1:20 am

    @Jay: Oh, no argument with any of that. We’ve blown a stupid amount of money on things that provide very little in the way of future economic growth. I agree that we could reduce the stockpile 90%, keeping the most effective options and disposing of the rest.

  83. 83.

    Major Major Major Major

    July 31, 2019 at 1:20 am

    @Martin: snrk

  84. 84.

    Jay

    July 31, 2019 at 1:25 am

    @Vhh:

    It varied as the technology changed, the tactical and strategic conditions changed and the geopolitics changed.

    In the early days of the Cold War, the Soviets thought they could survive a nuclear war, so their strategy involved preliminary strikes to neuter The West’s advantage.

    Midway through the Cold War, the Soviets reasoned that a nuclear waste contaminated battlefield would severly muck up their doctrine of massed firepower and rapid mobility deep strikes punching through the Fulda Gap, so they changed doctrine.

    Both the US, the USSR/Russia, France and Britian have had various policies, at various times to engage in “First Strikes”, ranging from “first use” of tactical weapons as a “deterrent” and “de-escalation”, to all out nuclear war.

  85. 85.

    Gretchen

    July 31, 2019 at 1:26 am

    It’s making me nuts that Bernie’s bros think that Medicare for All is obvious. Medicare now doesn’t cover a lot of things – drugs, dental, optical. Many people buy private supplemental insurance to cover the gaps in Medicare. But the M4A folks just handwave past that – their Medicare will cover all that stuff, for everybody, and it will pass Congress easily, and there won’t be any Republican obstruction of it like there was for Medicaid expansion, and anyone who thinks maybe we should keep the old system in place until we’re sure the new system is working is just a capitalist shill. This is a big change, there are a lot of moving parts, people will get badly hurt if we make miscalculations, and these folks are just angry that we don’t want to go full speed ahead.

  86. 86.

    hitchhiker

    July 31, 2019 at 1:30 am

    Didn’t watch, but I did scroll twitter with one eye on the baseball game. Seems like people were pissed at the format, annoyed with Jake Tapper’s questions, impressed that Williamson brings a “spiritual” vibe that feels authentic, and happy that Liz Warren did fine.

    This feels wrong to me — all this effort and angst and showmanship when it’s already obvious how it will play out. There will be six or seven of them in the fall. The voting will start after the holidays. trump will continue to be horrifying. We may or may not see impeachment hearings; we’ll definitely see more corruption and incompetence exposed.

    And then sometime in the spring we’ll have a candidate, and I will need a xanax prescription to see me through the general election campaign.

  87. 87.

    Jay

    July 31, 2019 at 1:35 am

    Williamson: have you ever heard the tragedy of darth plagueis the wise? I thought not. It’s not a story the Jedi would tell you— Alexandra Petri (@petridishes) July 31, 2019

    Calling entrenched ignorant bigotry a “dark psychic force,” like it’s something from Sauron as opposed to an ugly and entrenched human characteristic, badly misreads it.— UAEApprovedHat (@Popehat) July 31, 2019

  88. 88.

    Mohagan

    July 31, 2019 at 1:39 am

    @Yarrow: Wow, you are really nicer than I am. I find him really annoying and just want him and his Republican-lite talking points to go away.

  89. 89.

    Mandalay

    July 31, 2019 at 1:43 am

    The NYT never fails to disappoint. Their headline about the debate could have been written by FoxNews:

    Sanders and Warren Battle Accusations of ‘Fairy Tale’ Promises as Intraparty Rift Flares

    The article itself describes how Warren and Sanders united during the debate to headstomp the whining sub-one percenters. The journalists who wrote that article probably want to headstomp the asshole who wrote the headline.

  90. 90.

    Bobby Thomson

    July 31, 2019 at 1:46 am

    @Steve in the ATL: you must not spend much time on the internet. Wilmer’s people have been yelling like stuck pigs after a Harris put out a plan that literally is Medicare for all. Hoisted on their own deceptive branding petard.

  91. 91.

    Bobby Thomson

    July 31, 2019 at 1:46 am

    @Steve in the ATL: you must not spend much time on the internet. Wilmer’s people have been yelling like stuck pigs after a Harris put out a plan that literally is Medicare for all. Hoisted on their own deceptive branding petard.

  92. 92.

    opiejeanne

    July 31, 2019 at 1:47 am

    @hitchhiker:

    sometime in the spring we’ll have a candidate, and I will need a xanax prescription to see me through the general election campaign.

    I think many of us will.

  93. 93.

    Jay

    July 31, 2019 at 1:54 am

    If this leak is accurate, it means that the UN will announce in August that the world's land has already more or less reached the level of warming the UN summit in September is designed to merely strategize a way to possibly prevent. https://t.co/AaDS0sARz7— David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) July 30, 2019

  94. 94.

    opiejeanne

    July 31, 2019 at 1:59 am

    @Jay: That is very poorly worded. I did understand what he’s trying to tell us, but it was a harder slog than it needed to be.

    I have been telling people to plant trees. Lots of trees.

  95. 95.

    Jay

    July 31, 2019 at 1:59 am

    Sith woo?

    pic.twitter.com/xN3vXtzocb— Gillian Brockell (@gbrockell) June 24, 2019

  96. 96.

    Jay

    July 31, 2019 at 2:06 am

    @opiejeanne:

    There’s a big UN Conference coming up to discuss ways to prevent a 1.41C rise in Continental temps over the next decade.

    The leaked IIPC Panel report on Climate Change says we got there last month.

    If you click on the tweet, you see the IIPC leak that makes it pretty clear.

    When somebody subtweets a tweet, or includes a graphic, you have to go to the tweet as only front pagers can post the full tweet as it appears.

  97. 97.

    wasabi gasp

    July 31, 2019 at 2:10 am

    Warren had some very good moments, but she also revealed a disasterous weakness: her complete inability to defend taxes. That’s a massive vulnerability.

  98. 98.

    Omnes Omnibus

    July 31, 2019 at 2:11 am

    @Vhh: That is correct. Gah! Look, if you people would just read what I meant to type not what I actually typed in situations like this, it make my life much easier. Thank you in advance.

    Best regards,

    Etc.

    ETA: Yeah, I had to fix a typo in this comment as well. I think I need to hire staff for my blog commenting.

  99. 99.

    Jay

    July 31, 2019 at 2:12 am

    @opiejeanne:

    Might not help. Trees are both carbon sinks and carbon producers, and in some places, due to Global Warming, the forests are producing more atmospheric carbon dioxide, than they are sequestering.

  100. 100.

    opiejeanne

    July 31, 2019 at 2:16 am

    @Jay: I did that, went to the link. That’s how I figured it out, but that was a convoluted sentence in the first tweet.

  101. 101.

    TriassicSands

    July 31, 2019 at 2:16 am

    @feebog:

    Williamson needs to be in a small South American country leading a cult.

    She’s in a large North American country with a classic South American authoritarian government…leading a cult. I guess once one’s ego gets big enough running for president becomes mandatory. I suspect there’s more money in leadIng a North American cult.

    Anyway, once she’s president, she’s going to smother the world in love, which will warm hearts and cool the planet. What’s not to like?*

    * Apart from everything.

  102. 102.

    opiejeanne

    July 31, 2019 at 2:21 am

    @Jay: Then what are we supposed to do?

    I need to at least replace the trees that have died on my property. We’ve lost at least 10 in 9 years, some due to strange weather patterns such as a three year drought followed by two years of record rain, birch trees bent down and broken by heavy snow, a birch beetle infestation in our neighborhood that we managed to stop in our yard after losing 4 pretty birches to them. We had a lot of birches when we moved here: a line of them across the front of our property and a line across a third of the back.

  103. 103.

    opiejeanne

    July 31, 2019 at 2:22 am

    @Jay: This is a very annoying habit you have.

  104. 104.

    cs

    July 31, 2019 at 2:38 am

    @Gretchen:

    I’ve actually seen what M4A would look like. Normally, Medicare is almost entirely for the 65+ crowd. But there’s one exception: people with chronic renal failure can get on Medicare at any age. A very close friend of mine in her 30’s did so, after suffering through enormous bills and bankruptcy. It changed her life. No, the coverage wasn’t perfect, but it was close enough. Medicare paid for dialysis. It paid for the eventual transplant. Medicare paid for ailments unrelated to the kidney problems. With an affordable Part D plan from Blue Cross tacked on, the drugs were not a worry.

    Sure, it’s not perfect. But M4A would get us 90%+ of the way there. And with less disruption due to leveraging existing rules & bureaucracy.

  105. 105.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    July 31, 2019 at 2:50 am

    @opiejeanne: Ah, you noticed that as well.

  106. 106.

    TriassicSands

    July 31, 2019 at 3:05 am

    @cs:

    To make Medicare an adequate model for universal health care it needs some significant improvements. Right now, a supplemental plan is needed to make Medicare good insurance. Without a Medigap plan people can still face bankruptcy.

    Medicaid is better insurance (although there are significant variations from state to state). But in Washington State, where I live, it was better insurance than Medicare as long as you could find doctors who would accept it. However, Medicaid pays doctors and hospitals less than Medicare, which pays less than private insurance. That issue would have to be dealt with and it wouldn’t be easy.

  107. 107.

    TriassicSands

    July 31, 2019 at 3:07 am

    @wasabi gasp:

    …her complete inability to defend taxes

    It’s almost impossible to defend taxes in this country. Most people have grown up being fed a steady diet of anti-tax propaganda.

    Renowned SCOTUS Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes once said*: “Taxes are the price we pay for civilized society.”

    Not in America. The propaganda says taxes are government abuse. They’re too high on everyone and, amazingly, when given the opportunity to raise taxes on their state’s wealthiest residents in both right wing Alabama and liberal Washington State, voters in both states rejected the taxes by 2 to 1. Worse, poor people voted against the taxes in greater percentages than the rich. There seems to be a general believe (fantasy) that someday everyone will be rich. The opposite is more likely.

    Americans have come to believe that putting expenditures on a credit card is better than paying with taxes. That way someone in the future will have to pay the bill (plus interest). It seems pretty obvious that most Americans don’t care at all what they leave to future generations whether it’s a burning planet or massive unpaid bills.

    Of course, Republicans are the most hypocritical about this, but Democrats are not immune.

    Washington State has the most regressive tax system in the country. But when gubernatorial candidate former King County Executive Ron Sims proposed a progressive income tax, he probably killed any chance he had of wining the nomination (against Christine Gregoire). The idea was to reduce other more regressive taxes (especially the sales tax) and replace them with an income tax. Mention an income tax in this state and the majority of voters freak out. No matter how many assurances they are given that the income tax will replace other taxes, average Washingtonians are convinced the income tax will be added on top of existing taxes. You can’t fix stupid — something at the root of most of our political problems today.

    * I’ve heard that quote attributed to Holmes for decades and I assume he said it. However, it’s surprising how many famous quotes were never uttered by the supposed utterer. Regardless of who did or didn’t msay it — it’s true.

  108. 108.

    Chetan Murthy

    July 31, 2019 at 3:30 am

    @TriassicSands:

    However, Medicaid pays doctors and hospitals less than Medicare, which pays less than private insurance. That issue would have to be dealt with and it wouldn’t be easy.

    I agree with much of what you write, except this. Let’s get down to brass tacks: doctors in America are still vastly overpaid compared to their peers in other OECD countries. Vastly. They’re going to experience downward income mobility, or we’re not going to fix our health care system. And so, sure Medicare pays less. But when most private insurance withers away (because people opt-in to Medicare-for-all) doctors will have a choice between going cash-only, or accepting Medicare. And they’ll accept Medicare.

    BTW, my father was a cardiologist who did a tidy, tidy business only accepting what Medicare paid. For some of his career he didn’t even bother billing his patients for the other 20%, b/c hey, too much damn trouble, and Medicare paid enough, eh?

    Also, while you’re right about the copays and top-up insurance, why wouldn’t people be able to buy that in the imagined future where we can buy-in to M4A? I mean, that seems pretty reasonable, no? top-up insurance exists today, and it’ll exist in that future, too.

  109. 109.

    Chetan Murthy

    July 31, 2019 at 3:35 am

    @Chetan Murthy: Oh hm, maybe you mean that that Medigap insurance itself would need to be subsidized, or the poorest folks wouldn’t be able to afford it? I’m sure you’re right. And I’m expecting that our lawmakers will solve it. Or at least, that if they can get M4A (even buy-in) thru, they’ll have enough votes to be able to fix these sorts of gaps.

  110. 110.

    Steeplejack

    July 31, 2019 at 3:50 am

    @TriassicSands:

    I have concerns about Williamson’s proposed crystal tariffs.

  111. 111.

    Steeplejack

    July 31, 2019 at 3:58 am

    Andrei Tarkovsky’s glacial but interesting Solaris (1972) on TCM now in super wide screen. Don’t think I’m up to it tonight.

    I lay down at 8:00 p.m. for a brief rest and zonked out until 2:00 a.m. So now I’m up and at ’em! But I missed the debate, so there’s that.

    Eagerly awaiting 77 Sunset Strip at the hour.

  112. 112.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    July 31, 2019 at 3:59 am

    @Steeplejack: You’ll just have to settle for American Made Crystal.

  113. 113.

    James E Powell

    July 31, 2019 at 4:02 am

    @TriassicSands:

    I’ve heard that quote attributed to Holmes for decades and I assume he said it. However, it’s surprising how many famous quotes were never uttered by the supposed utterer.

    Holmes wrote a similar line in a dissent. As the Quote Investigator’s research shows, there are multiple quotes stating the same thing, that paying taxes is necessary for civilization.

    But you are correct, nearly everyone alive been raised in a country where everyone demands more and better government expenditures and reduced taxes. Because taxes just go for wastefraudandabuse and free stuff for undeserving people of color.

    I always think of the morons who didn’t mind George W Bush turning a budget surplus into a deficit with large tax cuts for rich people because they got a check for $300.

  114. 114.

    Mike in NC

    July 31, 2019 at 4:19 am

    Before turning in last night I sampled some Norweigian Aquavit at one of the cafes onboard. Man that stuff is powerful. Slept like baby and had weird dreams about the places I hadn’t worked at in ten years. We’re about to leave the English Channel to turn north into the Irish Sea.

  115. 115.

    Steeplejack

    July 31, 2019 at 4:23 am

    @Mike in NC:

    Sounds cool. Destination?

    There is something attractive about the idea of an organized, “non-adventure” vacation. Hope you continue to have a great time.

  116. 116.

    mrmoshpotato

    July 31, 2019 at 4:33 am

    This is the wrong answer https://t.co/zZDV8DNP7L— Zerlina Maxwell (@ZerlinaMaxwell) July 31, 2019

    I hope she had fun running for President.

  117. 117.

    Steeplejack

    July 31, 2019 at 4:51 am

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:

    How do you while away the time when no one else is on here? I guess you multitask with photo processing?

    I’ve got an appointment for minor surgery at 10:00 today. Hope I don’t end up tired and sleepy for that after being up in the middle of the night.

  118. 118.

    janesays

    July 31, 2019 at 4:59 am

    @Gretchen: I mean… even if you do fully support an M4A policy that completely wipes out the private insurance marketplace, the likelihood of actually being able to get such legislation passed in the next Congress is pretty close to nil.

    If we couldn’t get a damn public option when we had 60 votes in the Senate and 256 votes in the House, we sure as hell aren’t getting an M4A bill that totally eliminates private insurance for over 150 million Americans passed with (optimistically) 51 votes in the Senate and 245 votes in the House.

  119. 119.

    janesays

    July 31, 2019 at 5:09 am

    @mrmoshpotato: Eh, let’s not kid ourselves. Klobuchar’s already out of the race, along with everybody else not named Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, or Booker, whether they realize it or not.

  120. 120.

    Mike in NC

    July 31, 2019 at 5:14 am

    @Steeplejack: Dublin, Liverpool, Belfast and then several stops in Wales and Scotland.

  121. 121.

    Steeplejack

    July 31, 2019 at 5:18 am

    @Mike in NC:

    Sounds good. Enjoy it all!

  122. 122.

    Procopius

    July 31, 2019 at 6:04 am

    @Martin: The problem with Dr. Strangelove’s answer was that while the Doomsday Machine was terrifying and should have been perfect deterrence, it was also secret. I was never able to watch enough of the movie to hear what the reply was when that was pointed out.

  123. 123.

    Steeplejack

    July 31, 2019 at 6:24 am

    @Procopius:

    That came close to the end, when the disaster was irretrievable. By then they were on to sheltering in mine shafts and repopulating the earth later with hot babes.

  124. 124.

    schrodingers_cat

    July 31, 2019 at 7:42 am

    I guess I am the only one not feeling all the Warren love everyone seems to be experiencing. Her speaking style is just not doing it for me. I don’t agree with all her policy prescriptions either. FWIW I also think her political instincts are not that great. M4A is BS led trap that she seems to have fallen into. Just like she fell into the Pocahontas trap laid by Orange T.

  125. 125.

    Jinchi

    July 31, 2019 at 8:16 am

    @Martin:

    That’s the whole function of ballistic missile submarines. They can sit undetected off your coast and destroy your cities before you have a chance to give the counterstrike order.

    I don’t understand why you think they’re incompatible with a No First Use policy. They are in a perfect position to launch a counterstrike if the US mainland suffered a decapitating attack. An adversary like the former Soviet Union could never be certain they would survive even if they pulled off a successful first strike.

  126. 126.

    Geeno

    July 31, 2019 at 8:19 am

    @Procopius: Strangelove yelled at Premier Kissov (or was it the Russian rep in the War Room?) “BUT IT ONLY WORKS IF EVERYONE KNOWS ABOUT IT!!”. The response was that it was going to be announced at the Party Congress next month.

  127. 127.

    Michael Cain

    July 31, 2019 at 9:26 am

    @dmsilev:

    The next debate, in September, has higher thresholds to qualify. Both the donor and polling thresholds have doubled and a candidate needs to hit both criteria, not just one or the other. That should help weed out the dick and the infirm.

    CNN says they will apply the same standard for their Sep 4 climate change town hall. Fivethirtyeight.com is projecting that Inslee won’t be included. The DNC will be pleased.

  128. 128.

    artem1s

    July 31, 2019 at 9:45 am

    @Gretchen:

    Medicare now doesn’t cover a lot of things

    and that doesn’t even take into consideration the 100 thousand things that conservative christians are going to want excluded from basic coverage if we ever went to medicare for all.
    Wilmerites don’t care about the women who will still have to pay for their birth control and reproductive care out of pocket.

  129. 129.

    J R in WV

    July 31, 2019 at 5:10 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    “Cenk Ugyur thinks it was the line of the night!”

    Cenk Ugyur named his son “Prometheus Maximus Uygur” which is child abuse from my perspective. He can call himself progressive till the cows come home without affecting my opinion of him…

    So few people grow out of being an ass once they have established that ass-ness into their 30s or so. He was a Bernie-bro nearly until election day 2016 — done with him.

  130. 130.

    J R in WV

    July 31, 2019 at 5:23 pm

    @Martin:

    But of course the US is wiling to strike first. We’ve always been willing to do that. That’s the whole function of ballistic missile submarines. They can sit undetected off your coast and destroy your cities before you have a chance to give the counterstrike order.

    Martin, I agree with lots of what you have to say, but I believe here you are seriously off track. My understanding is that the submarines are intended as a second strike force which will survive any first strike on the US or NATO allies. Assuming Trump hasn’t destroyed NATO as of the commencement of nuclear hostilities.

    Also, I suspect a first strike force would be aimed at military and political targets like the opponent’s nuclear forces and their military and political infrastructure, not at cities. I would hope so, anyway, as a person with empathy.

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