At this point Biden's regained most of what he lost after the first debate. Harris has retained ~half her bounce. Warren continues a slow and steady improvement and Sanders a slow and steady decline. https://t.co/Hh90O9EGDw
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 29, 2019
The Biden numbers are objectively, pretty interesting. Again, just a hunch: they seem to indicate a propensity to return to him, even in the absence of tons of positive media attention. He hasn't gotten a lot the past month. He's been basically out of the news the past 2 weeks.
— Mangy Jay (@magi_jay) July 29, 2019
His uptick is basically equal to uptick in voters seeing as most electable. Democrats are scared and every poll where the others don’t lead Trump by Biden’s margin sends them back to Biden. https://t.co/nJ7QnCXqHs
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) July 29, 2019
Trendlines: https://t.co/0315xyrkSp pic.twitter.com/0s3HHrGPVK
— The Bearded Crank (@beardedcrank) July 29, 2019
“But he was only running against Hillary and O’Malley then.” True! But at the moment his coalition is smaller than it was. He has a long-term plan to grow the electorate but most of the 2016 supporters have drifted.
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) July 29, 2019
49% of whites will definitely not vote for Trump compared to 38% who definitely will, but please keep telling us his racism is an election winner pundits. https://t.co/TSkMAskO3q
— Neera Tanden (@neeratanden) July 30, 2019
And on that other topic…
Bookmark this @thefix page if you haven't already, an hourly-ish update on where House stands on calls for impeachment (109 Ds & counting), plus granular, fascinating data:
Average PVI of those districts: D +17. https://t.co/XzVmCryBSj— Paul Kane (@pkcapitol) July 29, 2019
barb 2
Moscow Mitch doesn’t like his new name. Moscow Mitch was used in a rant by Morning Joe — 16 times or so last Friday morning.
Our elections must be protected — and Moscow Mitch is blocking any vote on bills dealing with creating a paper trail for example.
Moscow Mitch — ha ha ha ha ha. I’m listening to a podcast — The Last Word — MSNBC as well as the 11 hour. Replaying the Moscow Mitch rant. Poor turtle got his widdle feeling hurt — so sad?
JPL
@barb 2: Obama made him do it. I hope that Biden has the opportunity to mention that it was Mitch that blocked a bipartisan approach to talk about Russian interference in the election.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
So true.
After Charlottesville the Village said Confederate statues and MS13 would lead the gop to victory in Virginia and they got their asses handed to them.
7 months ago the Village said the caravan and Kavanaugh would lead to a red wave and they were crushed.
Now, like a broken record, the Village is once again saying naked racism is a winner.
And they pay no price for being perennially wrong.
Baud
Hopefully Warren can deliver a blow to Bernie tonight. Lineup:
Baud
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
The.media have ways of making people vote the way they want.
Baud
This doesn’t explain why all the head-to-head matchups are close except Biden’s.
low-tech cyclist
Is it just me, or are Nate Silver and Dave Weigel making a disproportionately big deal out of one poll?
I mean, sure, the Q-poll is one of the best, but with n=579, it’s got a MOE of about 4%. Meanwhile, Morning Consult has Biden going from 38% pre-debate to 31% after, to 33% now.
The moral is: don’t get too excited about any one poll. If multiple polls show the same movement, it’s probably real. No question, Biden HAS recovered some of the support he lost after the last debate. But whether he’s regained all of his lost support, or just some of it, is an open question right now. And of course, the current round of debates will shake things up some more.
Brachiator
Quinnipiac detail
Sanders does well with some Democrats, not so we’ll with others; and these groups overlap. But it will be interesting to see if the other candidates in the upcoming debate will go after Sanders.
Some pundits keep talking about electability. I still think that this matters far more to pundits than to voters, but hack writers can’t let go of this stupidity.
If I were fantasy league Democratic Party strategist, and could make the candidates listen to me, I would tell everyone not named Warren to go after Trump and Bernie hard, since none of them are going to be the nominee.
Warren could freestyle, sell her plans, knock Trump, nibble on Sanders. Attack Biden if she wants. I would prefer that Warren and Harris have a mutual non-aggression pact. Again, this is just my fantasy.
ETA. I’m not deeply concerned with any national poll, but it is clear that Biden is showing early strength.
Baud
I blame Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
Baud
@Brachiator:
That’s either electability or name recognition.
Brachiator
@Baud:
Ah, sanity.
Jim Parish
@Baud: They’re giving Beto two slots?
Baud
For the record, I still don’t think most people are going to start paying attention until after Labor Day.
@Brachiator:
I feel sorry for Hillary.
Baud
@Jim Parish:
Haha. I copied and pasted.
Baud
Actual lineup
OzarkHillbilly
@Brachiator: Por que no los todos?
Oooopps, for @Baud:
Brachiator
@Baud:
Or comfort. People don’t just know his name, they think that they know who he is and trust him.
Electability is an artifact of something else. Fear, maybe. Sexism, maybe. But to me, electability is a fantasy league question, “who do you think the Democrat sitting next to you will vote for.”
If you end up getting elected, you had good electability. Otherwise, it doesn’t mean much.
In the Quinnipiac detail, I think, Trump support among Hispanic voters is 25 percent. This is consistent, and a bit worrisome and sad. Or I may have misread something. I’ve got insomnia again and really have to try to get some sleep.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone ???
OzarkHillbilly
.@Baud: I won’t be paying much attention till they whittle it down to 6 or so.
rikyrah
Sending positive thoughts to Little Imma, Scotian, and the rest of the Jackal Family that might need them???
Baud
@Brachiator:
That’s at the crazificatiom factor. Think of what we could accomplish if white people were at the same place.
TS (the original)
@Brachiator: Biden is riding on Obama’s shirt tails – he had nothing before he became VP & I still don’t see anything special that he did in the 8 years with Obama.
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
Raven
Jesus, Mika is off the fucking hook.
JPL
@Raven: What about now?
raven
@JPL: Mark Meadows and his cowardice.
Brachiator
@TS (the original):
This still gives Biden an advantage.
It’s early, but Warren, Harris and Sanders have to find a way to appeal to black voters and other groups of Democrats.
Baud
We don’t know how to respond, guys.
OzarkHillbilly
@Raven: What’s she going on about?
TS (the original)
@Brachiator:
Definitely agree – Obama carries much weight & Joe can use it. Also gives him much name recognition
satby
@Baud: the NYT is garbage
Edit: and Mag Habs is a dumpster fire.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: by Reid J. Epstein and Maggie Haberman, ’nuff said.
Baud
No surprise to anyone here.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: “This president has done more for this country in 2 years than every President in history has done in 8.” Or so I read on twitter recently.
Ken
@OzarkHillbilly: Are you sure it didn’t say “This president has done more harm to this country in 2 years than every enemy nation has done in 250?”
OzarkHillbilly
@Ken: She didn’t actually identify which “more” she was speaking of.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
Resume padding. It’s not just for grunts.
Ken
@Baud: Tumbrels are a kind of response.
Bobby Thomson
Shit, these pundits are terrible.
Like Kerry and candidate Trump, Biden’s numbers improve when he stays out of the news. The more people see him the less they like him. Simple as that.
debbie
@barb 2:
Well, that’s enough for me to start using it!
Kay
@Baud:
It’s really worrisome though. I know they’ll haul out the big deficit show the moment Trump is out of office and I refuse to go along with that – they’re frauds – but it really is bad. In reality.
We’re going to pay for this. There is no “economy” that will fix this. For it to work their fantasy growth projections had to NOT be a fantasy. The only reason the states that tried this (Kansas, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin) recovered with a better economy is they couldn’t run huge deficits and they all raised taxes after the Brownback experiment. They’re all raising taxes now to pay for 2010-2018. I mean, they’re regressive taxes- fuel and sales taxes and thousands of “fees” but they are revenue. The moment Kasich was out of office they miraculously “discovered” he generated his “surplus” by moving numbers around so immediately started debate on raising the gas tax. And this is with 4% unemployment! It doesn’t get any better than that. It can’t improve and thus raise more revenue. They had to, had to, raise taxes just to do road repairs.
AxelFoley
@Brachiator:
Hah! Sanders can forget that shit. Black voters don’t like his dusty old ass.
debbie
@satby:
Still salty, I see. :-)
Baud
@Kay:
Difficult problems. I’m confident the Internet will find fatal flaws in how the Dems handle them.
JPL
If Joe is still viable after the debate, trump will start painting him as the racist. You’re the racist.
frosty
@rikyrah: Thanks for starting the last few days with these positive thoughts for our jackals. It reminds me to do the same.
Kay
@JPL:
He’s not my favorite- which I believe I have made clear but that’s the disclaimer- but I am surprised that Biden is running such a negative campaign. It makes sense to me that people polling below him are aggressive, but I’m a little shocked he’s overtly attacking the others. I think a big selling point for him is his optimism and what seems to me (despite his many faults) a genuine ability to get along with others- I don’t recognize this person.
Brachiator
@Baud:
From racially charged to racially Infused to racially divisive. The NYT is full of shit. Maximum shit. Shitty McShit Shit.
Baud
@Kay:
IMHO it’s an overreaction to his lack of energy. They can’t increase his energy level, so they mask it with negativity.
Baud
@Brachiator:
Right. I wonder if the NYT will ever deign to tell us what side of that divide they fall on.
Mr. Mack
Good Morning Jackals. (I’m not a full fledged jackal yet, I mostly lurk) I’m wondering if some of the Biden support isn’t from disgruntled Republicans, who see him as less scary than Warren/Sanders? Around here, (Tennessee) the folks I talked with don’t hate Biden like they do nearly every other D candidate. Not sure why that is.
satby
@rikyrah: Good morning and echoing your positive thoughts. Wishing comfort for them all.
@debbie: I thought calling her MAGA Habs was too obvious.
satby
@Mr. Mack: Good morning and welcome to commenting more. Biden is old, white, and looks like the kind of politicians people grew up with. Familiar is comfortable to a lot of folks.
Kay
@Baud:
Maybe. I didn’t consider that. I thought it was maybe a reaction to the D base, who, IMO, want someone who will go after Trump. They really do. It would be a mistake to take GOP pundit’s advice and not focus on Trump and they’re wrong anyway- it has nothing to do with ideology. One can be a centrist and really go after him. Klobachur took more shots at Trump than any of the rest of them in that first debate, part of the reason she hasn’t done a lot of policy is she doesn’t have time- she gets like 20 seconds of attention and she spends all of it attacking Trump. Mayor Pete attacks him constantly and really effectively. Democrats want that – Left, Right and Center, and this isn’t the David Brooks primary. It’s the D base primary. Trump is really unpopular. It’s insane not to go after him. No politician in their right mind should listen to this scolding.
Imagine if Democrats had an incumbent who is this unpopular. Every Republican in the country down to city council would be attacking him.
OzarkHillbilly
@Mr. Mack:
Bullshit. You’re just in denial, trying desperately to hold onto that last thread of respectability..
JPL
@Baud: IMHO It’s because he has a weak campaign staff.
Baud
Is Daniel W. Drezner a known wingnut? He savages Warren’s trade plan, but I don’t know if I should treat him as credible.
Baud
@Mr. Mack:
The final exam is tough but I have faith in you.
Barry
@Baud “This doesn’t explain why all the head-to-head matchups are close except Biden’s.”
The power of name recognition and incumbency. Remember, to most people Harris, Warren, etc. are unknowns.
Baud
@Kay:
Maybe. I think Dems want a candidate who has the make-up to go after Trump. I don’t know how much of an advantage it is during the primary to spend time just attacking Trump.
rikyrah
Haven’t folks like me been telling you that the problem they have with Dolt45 is that he won’t talk in Frank Luntz-approved dogwhistles??
https://twitter.com/ZerlinaMaxwell/status/1156016577277390850
zhena gogolia
@Mr. Mack:
My disgruntled Republican friend wants to see Biden/Abrams.
JPL
@Mr. Mack: Several of the candidates have been painted as socialists, which is a scary word. Since Joe has a known record, it’s difficult to paint him as to far left.
I still think a Biden/Harris ticket would win, and winning is what we need to do.
Kay
@Baud:
I don’t know if you’ve noticed but their coverage of Biden is 100% negative. This is going to be worse than 2016. They flogged the Joe Biden’s son scandal until it became clear it wasn’t taking off. The fact is they still take GOP operatives as sources. They gave that bullshit credibility because it came from Guiliani. The Trump infatuation is parochial for them. They know these people and they admire them. Trump knows them too. He played NY media for 50 years. This stupid game he plays where he pretends they’re mortal enemies and they pretend he’s a threat to the First Amendment benefits both sides of this supposed “adversarial relationship” and has for 50 years.
Bobby Thomson
@Kay: this is the same Joe Biden he’s always been. People overlooked it after 2008 but he’s not the person you thought he was.
OzarkHillbilly
Vox- Why isn’t Elizabeth Warren more popular in Massachusetts?
Why isn’t trump popular in America?
Baud
@Kay:
They’ll flog whoever is in the lead. Hard to believe it can be worse than 2016 though. Their hatred of Hillary was visceral.
Baud
@Bobby Thomson:
Joe stripped of Onion Joe may be a problem.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud:
FTFY.
And I’m off for the day. Have fun.
Mr. Mack
@OzarkHillbilly: Nailed it.
Kay
@Barry:
It’s good to remind ourselves of that. My middle son and his friends were here last weekend and I asked them who they were supporting and the only candidates they are familiar with are Biden and Bernie. I asked about Warren (who I support) and only one answered “don’t know who she is” – the rest didn’t enlighten him. Same with Harris. They’re early twenties. I don’t know for sure but I think they’re Democratic leaners- my son is an actual Democrat- he voted for Bernie in the primary and Clinton in the general- but the rest seemed to be limiting this to “not Trump” so they would potentially be general election D voters, if not primary voters.
Baud
I see the long foretold Great Bison War has begun. Dark days ahead.
Steve in the ATL
@Baud:
Bingo.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I have an opening argument to give. Gonna stick it to the man! *checks notes, sees that I am the man* Never mind!
Barry
@Baud: “They’ll flog whoever is in the lead. Hard to believe it can be worse than 2016 though. Their hatred of Hillary was visceral.”
The guy in charge of CNN admitted that Trump boosted their ratings to incredible levels in 2016, IIRC. Remember, they figure that the poison won’t effect them, since they are in the ‘in’ group.
Also, they spent decades sh*tting on the Clintons, for no good reason except that Bill was a Democratic President. They spent far more time and far more vitriol on two people than they spent on all Republicans combined. They can switch to whomever is the Dem nominee quite easily.
JPL
@zhena gogolia: I want Abrams to stay in GA. I was disappointed that she didn’t run for Senate in 2020, but truth be known, I doubt that Isakson runs again in 2022 given his health issues, so maybe she is biding her time.
Kay
@Bobby Thomson:
I do have a somewhat bad impression of him- I was active in the bankruptcy bill fight, which, you know, we lost so I was horribly bitter, as is my usual with a loss- so I have followed him for a while and still the negativity is new to me. His floor speech on his bankruptcy vote was very dishonest but positive! He pretended it was about collecting child support. Beefed up child support enforcement was the lame concession they got for that shitty law. Not fooling me.
But I’m not that principled. I’d vote for him in a heartbeat just for the judges. I’d canvass just for judges. Keep you eye on the prize :)
Baud
@Kay:
Being against fascism is a principle.
chris
JMG
@Baud: Drezner is no wingnut, but he is a very committed free trader. On the other hand, he praised Warren’s plan to revitalize the State Dept. to the skies.
I remain convinced Biden’s appeal to Democrats is solely his polling status head-to-head with Trump. That in turn reflects a deep desire among the public for a dull President and dull politics they can ignore. It is hard not to sympathize with that desire.
Immanentize
Hi All,. Just a drive by..
The Immp is miserable but better. They took out his NG tube (the one that goes in the nose and down the throat/esophagus). Huge relief. The new connection is not leaking and they are introducing nutrients, although nothing by mouth except 1 oz sips of water every hour. Progress is measured in amount of farts, which suits him.
Sitting around at a hospital with a loved one in distress is one of the most exhausting things a human can do.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: Drezner is a Republican, so caveat emptor.
Baud
Not linking, but fyi.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
the cult is just…. I don’t even know what to say. This guy’s mental images come from those McNaughton paintings
Immanentize
@JMG:
I think this might also be Nate Silver’s hypothesis about why Harris has lost half her post-debate bounce.
Immanentize
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: is Gym Jordan that stupid?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
it’s been concern of mine for a while, a combination of the entitlement of the lifelong Senator– I think they all think they should be/have been President– and his redirected grief about his son, those things would turn him bitter if didn’t get the nomination.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Immanentize: don’t you fancy law talkers say in Roman, res ipsa loquitur?
zhena gogolia
@Immanentize:
Oh, God, it’s agonizing. I’m glad there’s progress.
Cheryl Rofer
Lol, #MoscowMitch is getting ratioed good.
The Twitter ratio is between replies and likes (or likes + retweets. The numbers don’t show up in this representation of the tweet, but at the moment they are
replies: 15,646
retweets: 656
likes: 1986
with the replies increasing much faster than the others. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this high a ratio.
Immanentize
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Maybe in this case, homo loquitur tantum sibi
MomSense
@Immanentize:
We are all with you in spirit, rooting for Immp and hoping he feels a little better every day.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
That’s funny. I distinctly remember seeing Trump applauding the terrorists.
Kathleen
@Immanentize: You’ve had more than your share of enduring that. Having to watch your child suffer has to be especially difficult. My daughter will be 46 next month but she’s still my baby and I would lose my mind if something happened to her. Take good care of yourself.
Betty Cracker
Power tool aficionados: I used wood filler to patch a deep hole my (subsequently fired for incompetence) shower installation contractors gouged in a baseboard in our bathroom. The wood filler was the kind you mix up and apply, and supposedly you have 10 minutes to smooth it over. Well, mine clabbered up on me in about 5 minutes. The hole is filled, but it looks like a handful of gravel. I don’t have a sander, but I could use one, so I thought I’d buy one for this and future jobs. Any recommendations on type and brand? It doesn’t have to be battery powered.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: d’oh! sorry– that’s a parody tweet. In my defense, it’s very early and Jordan is a complete moron.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Hard to tell these days.
Elizabelle
@Betty Cracker: Yea! Glad to hear you fired the contractors.
Good luck with the sander. No clue there.
Betty Cracker
@Elizabelle: Yep, we fired them, and I am working on a service review that will redefine “scathing.” :)
Elizabelle
@Immanentize: Immp is in my thoughts. Hope the cancer is gone, gone, gone and that he will be feeling exponentially better soonest.
ETA: You are too! How do you occupy yourself while waiting at the hospital? Do you and Immp need any good reading or audio suggestions? I am fresh out, but the jackals could help out there.
Elizabelle
@Betty Cracker: You must share it here.
Quinerly
@Immanentize: thanks for checking in. Sending hugs to you both.
CaseyL
@Immanentize: Thanks for checking in!
Glad Immp’s in good, or at least improving, spirits. “Measuring progress in farts” would make a great T-shirt :)
Kelly
@Betty Cracker: I’m still using my Dad’s Makita orbital sander. He passed away in 1992 and he’d had it a while then. Makita makes good tools.
smintheus
@low-tech cyclist: Yes they are making too much out of the Q poll, which has a small Dem sample size. Btw the MoE for the Dem primary results part of the Q poll is not 4% but 5.1% because of that small sample.
smintheus
@Betty Cracker: DeWalt makes good sanders also. Small jobs I usually do by hand, though, partly because my old house doesn’t have many outlets.
UncleEbeneezer
@Steve in the ATL: To quote TOOL’s song Hooker With A Penis (a response to fan claims that they had recently sold out):
Mary G
@Immanentize: Yes, it’s grueling, sitting in the hospital watching and waiting. Sounds like a bit of progress happening.
laura
@Immanentize: the only thing worse than sitting in the hospital bearing witness to a loved one’s suffering, is not being able to be there. Wishing Immp continued improvement and comfort to you.
UncleEbeneezer
@Kay: The simplest explanation is that Kamala ruffled Biden’s feathers and that he wants to start taking the gloves off to show his fighting nature. Remember this is an old white dude who probably thinks he’s earned the nomination and likely things his frontrunner status is due to his own excellence rather than familiarity/Obama-coattails. His reaction to Booker on the issue of his old Segregationist buddies indicates that Booker/Harris really struck a nerve. I can see him being really pissed that these upstarts are questioning his history and sincerely challenging him. Also, there’s also been a ton of Hillary-didn’t-fight-hard-enough! bullshit from the media and Left for the past 3 years, that it’s likely he believes that too.
Matt McIrvin
The thing about Trump’s racism is that it seemed like a loser before and he still won. Even if it repels the median American, it’s still a winner if it turns out more of his supporters in a few key swing states than it does of his opposition. So preventing that should be the focus.
The Moar You Know
@Betty Cracker: DeWalt orbital. Something exactly like this:
DeWalt Corded Orbital Sander
I build guitars in my non-existent spare time and I tend to beat the shit out of sanders – these work well and hold up nicely. And are cheap!
Jerzy Russian
@Betty Cracker: You might to start out with a belt sander if your lump of gravel sticks up higher than the surrounding baseboard. Once the hump is ground down, switch to an orbital sander. My belt sander is a Ryobi, and I think the orbital sander is a DeWalt.
Jerzy Russian
@Immanentize: Thanks for the update. Waiting is hard, hopefully you have something to take your mind off things.
Please tell me there is a fartometer machine. Given that I have been 12 years old for the last 40 years, I would be interested in hearing more about such a machine.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Jerzy Russian: I think this would be an excellent application for the latest generation of AI. For instance, knowing how to decide whether to classify something as one long fart or 10 small ones. Academic types could probably get at least a couple of journal papers and conference presentations out of it.
Betty Cracker
Thanks for the sanders recs!
StringOnAStick
@Betty Cracker: You can rent tools too, in case you don’t want to buy either a belt sander or an orbital sander. I’ve got an orbital Makita and while I bought it for just one specific job (not knowing I could rent!) I’ve found it to be super handy for so many things. I’m probably using it outside it’s proper use parameters but I pay attention if it feels like it is getting hot. I don’t think I would use a belt sander as much so I don’t have one, which is how the orbital one gets abused sometimes.
StringOnAStick
Has anyone seen a comment from Scotian recently? I’ll check back later.
I’m going back to work tomorrow on my 4 week old new knee and my 20 week old other new knee. Given what I do (dental hygienist, which is another name for “work at frantic levels for 8 hours straight then go home and collapse), the next few weeks are going to be very hard, just like they were after the first knee replacement. Thankfully I only work 2 days a week or I would have just quit and looked for a new job another month from now.
Searcher
I assume people are just really, really desperate to never have a Gen X President. If we can just keep electing Boomers+ for a little bit longer, you’ll have some nice, mature, 40- or 50-year-old Millennials to take the reins in 2028 or 2032.
SiubhanDuinne
@Betty Cracker:
Wait, people on this blog are supporting bernie now?
frosty
@Betty Cracker: All my tools are DeWalt now. Burned out too many Black and Deckers. OTOH my Craftsman drill from the 70s finally gave up the ghost last year.
TBH, any of the non-budget brands are good. DeWalt used to be from Baltimore (so was B&D) so that swayed my choice.
ETA for sanders: I like the quarter-sheet orbital. Get one that lets you plug a shopvac into it in lieu of the dust bag, in case you get a big messy job down the line.
frosty
@StringOnAStick: @Betty Cracker:
I have a belt sander, too, which I rarely use. It’s an excellent tool for screwing up your work piece in less time than it takes to say “Oh, shit!”