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You are here: Home / Past Elections / 2020 Elections / Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Numbers Gaming

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Numbers Gaming

by Anne Laurie|  July 30, 20195:00 am| 121 Comments

This post is in: 2020 Elections, Impeachment, Open Threads, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome

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At this point Biden's regained most of what he lost after the first debate. Harris has retained ~half her bounce. Warren continues a slow and steady improvement and Sanders a slow and steady decline. https://t.co/Hh90O9EGDw

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 29, 2019

The Biden numbers are objectively, pretty interesting. Again, just a hunch: they seem to indicate a propensity to return to him, even in the absence of tons of positive media attention. He hasn't gotten a lot the past month. He's been basically out of the news the past 2 weeks.

— Mangy Jay (@magi_jay) July 29, 2019

His uptick is basically equal to uptick in voters seeing as most electable. Democrats are scared and every poll where the others don’t lead Trump by Biden’s margin sends them back to Biden. https://t.co/nJ7QnCXqHs

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) July 29, 2019

Trendlines: https://t.co/0315xyrkSp pic.twitter.com/0s3HHrGPVK

— The Bearded Crank (@beardedcrank) July 29, 2019

“But he was only running against Hillary and O’Malley then.” True! But at the moment his coalition is smaller than it was. He has a long-term plan to grow the electorate but most of the 2016 supporters have drifted.

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) July 29, 2019

49% of whites will definitely not vote for Trump compared to 38% who definitely will, but please keep telling us his racism is an election winner pundits. https://t.co/TSkMAskO3q

— Neera Tanden (@neeratanden) July 30, 2019

And on that other topic…

Bookmark this @thefix page if you haven't already, an hourly-ish update on where House stands on calls for impeachment (109 Ds & counting), plus granular, fascinating data:
Average PVI of those districts: D +17. https://t.co/XzVmCryBSj

— Paul Kane (@pkcapitol) July 29, 2019

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Reader Interactions

121Comments

  1. 1.

    barb 2

    July 30, 2019 at 5:12 am

    Moscow Mitch doesn’t like his new name. Moscow Mitch was used in a rant by Morning Joe — 16 times or so last Friday morning.

    Our elections must be protected — and Moscow Mitch is blocking any vote on bills dealing with creating a paper trail for example.

    Moscow Mitch — ha ha ha ha ha. I’m listening to a podcast — The Last Word — MSNBC as well as the 11 hour. Replaying the Moscow Mitch rant. Poor turtle got his widdle feeling hurt — so sad?

  2. 2.

    JPL

    July 30, 2019 at 5:15 am

    @barb 2: Obama made him do it. I hope that Biden has the opportunity to mention that it was Mitch that blocked a bipartisan approach to talk about Russian interference in the election.

  3. 3.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    July 30, 2019 at 5:25 am

    but please keep telling us his racism is an election winner pundits.

    So true.

    After Charlottesville the Village said Confederate statues and MS13 would lead the gop to victory in Virginia and they got their asses handed to them.

    7 months ago the Village said the caravan and Kavanaugh would lead to a red wave and they were crushed.

    Now, like a broken record, the Village is once again saying naked racism is a winner.

    And they pay no price for being perennially wrong.

  4. 4.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 5:25 am

    Hopefully Warren can deliver a blow to Bernie tonight. Lineup:

    Author Marianne Williamson; Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan; Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar; Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana; Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders; Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren; former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke; former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke; and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock

  5. 5.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 5:27 am

    @David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:

    The.media have ways of making people vote the way they want.

  6. 6.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 5:29 am

    49% of whites will definitely not vote for Trump compared to 38% who definitely will, but please keep telling us his racism is an election winner pundits.

    This doesn’t explain why all the head-to-head matchups are close except Biden’s.

  7. 7.

    low-tech cyclist

    July 30, 2019 at 5:35 am

    Is it just me, or are Nate Silver and Dave Weigel making a disproportionately big deal out of one poll?

    I mean, sure, the Q-poll is one of the best, but with n=579, it’s got a MOE of about 4%. Meanwhile, Morning Consult has Biden going from 38% pre-debate to 31% after, to 33% now.

    The moral is: don’t get too excited about any one poll. If multiple polls show the same movement, it’s probably real. No question, Biden HAS recovered some of the support he lost after the last debate. But whether he’s regained all of his lost support, or just some of it, is an open question right now. And of course, the current round of debates will shake things up some more.

  8. 8.

    Brachiator

    July 30, 2019 at 5:48 am

    Quinnipiac detail

    Biden gets 53 percent of black Democrats, with 8 percent for Sanders, 7 percent for Harris and 4 percent for Warren;

    Women Democrats go 34 percent for Biden, 15 percent for Warren, 14 percent for Harris and 10 percent for Sanders;

    Very liberal Democrats go 29 percent for Warren, 25 percent for Biden, 15 percent for Sanders and 12 percent for Harris;

    Somewhat liberal Democrats go 34 percent for Biden, 16 percent for Sanders, 14 percent for Warren and 10 percent for Harris;

    Moderate/conservative Democrats go 39 percent for Biden, 12 percent for Harris, 9 percent for Warren and 8 percent for Sanders.

    Sanders does well with some Democrats, not so we’ll with others; and these groups overlap. But it will be interesting to see if the other candidates in the upcoming debate will go after Sanders.

    Some pundits keep talking about electability. I still think that this matters far more to pundits than to voters, but hack writers can’t let go of this stupidity.

    If I were fantasy league Democratic Party strategist, and could make the candidates listen to me, I would tell everyone not named Warren to go after Trump and Bernie hard, since none of them are going to be the nominee.

    Warren could freestyle, sell her plans, knock Trump, nibble on Sanders. Attack Biden if she wants. I would prefer that Warren and Harris have a mutual non-aggression pact. Again, this is just my fantasy.

    ETA. I’m not deeply concerned with any national poll, but it is clear that Biden is showing early strength.

  9. 9.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 5:48 am

    Support for “Medicare for All,” Sen. Bernie Sanders’ sweeping vision to remake the nation’s health insurance system, has slipped to 51%, down from 59% in March, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll, released Tuesday.

    Building on the Affordable Care Act has more support than replacing it with a national Medicare for All plan, by a 55% to 39% split, the poll found.

    I blame Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

  10. 10.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 5:51 am

    @Brachiator:

    Very liberal Democrats go 29 percent for Warren, 25 percent for Biden, 15 percent for Sanders and 12 percent for Harris;

    That’s either electability or name recognition.

  11. 11.

    Brachiator

    July 30, 2019 at 5:52 am

    @Baud:

    Building on the Affordable Care Act has more support than replacing it with a national Medicare for All plan, by a 55% to 39% split, the poll found.

    Ah, sanity.

  12. 12.

    Jim Parish

    July 30, 2019 at 5:55 am

    @Baud: They’re giving Beto two slots?

  13. 13.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 5:55 am

    For the record, I still don’t think most people are going to start paying attention until after Labor Day.

    @Brachiator:

    I feel sorry for Hillary.

  14. 14.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 5:56 am

    @Jim Parish:

    Haha. I copied and pasted.

  15. 15.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 5:58 am

    Actual lineup

    Marianne WilliamsonOhio Rep. Tim RyanMinnesota Sen. Amy KlobucharSouth Bend Mayor Pete ButtigiegVermont Sen. Bernie SandersMassachusetts Sen. Elizabeth WarrenFormer Texas Rep. Beto O’RourkeFormer Colorado Gov. John HickenlooperFormer Maryland Rep. John DelaneyMontana Gov. Steve Bullock

  16. 16.

    OzarkHillbilly

    July 30, 2019 at 5:58 am

    @Brachiator: Por que no los todos?

    Oooopps, for @Baud:

  17. 17.

    Brachiator

    July 30, 2019 at 6:01 am

    @Baud:

    That’s either electability or name recognition.

    Or comfort. People don’t just know his name, they think that they know who he is and trust him.

    Electability is an artifact of something else. Fear, maybe. Sexism, maybe. But to me, electability is a fantasy league question, “who do you think the Democrat sitting next to you will vote for.”

    If you end up getting elected, you had good electability. Otherwise, it doesn’t mean much.

    In the Quinnipiac detail, I think, Trump support among Hispanic voters is 25 percent. This is consistent, and a bit worrisome and sad. Or I may have misread something. I’ve got insomnia again and really have to try to get some sleep.

  18. 18.

    rikyrah

    July 30, 2019 at 6:04 am

    Good Morning, Everyone ???

  19. 19.

    OzarkHillbilly

    July 30, 2019 at 6:04 am

    .@Baud: I won’t be paying much attention till they whittle it down to 6 or so.

  20. 20.

    rikyrah

    July 30, 2019 at 6:05 am

    Sending positive thoughts to Little Imma, Scotian, and the rest of the Jackal Family that might need them???

  21. 21.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 6:06 am

    @Brachiator:

    Trump support among Hispanic voters is 25 percent

    That’s at the crazificatiom factor. Think of what we could accomplish if white people were at the same place.

  22. 22.

    TS (the original)

    July 30, 2019 at 6:06 am

    @Brachiator: Biden is riding on Obama’s shirt tails – he had nothing before he became VP & I still don’t see anything special that he did in the 8 years with Obama.

  23. 23.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 6:08 am

    @rikyrah:

    Good morning.

  24. 24.

    Raven

    July 30, 2019 at 6:14 am

    Jesus, Mika is off the fucking hook.

  25. 25.

    JPL

    July 30, 2019 at 6:18 am

    @Raven: What about now?

  26. 26.

    raven

    July 30, 2019 at 6:19 am

    @JPL: Mark Meadows and his cowardice.

  27. 27.

    Brachiator

    July 30, 2019 at 6:19 am

    @TS (the original):

    Biden is riding on Obama’s shirt tails – he had nothing before he became VP & I still don’t see anything special that he did in the 8 years with Obama.

    This still gives Biden an advantage.

    It’s early, but Warren, Harris and Sanders have to find a way to appeal to black voters and other groups of Democrats.

  28. 28.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 6:19 am

    We don’t know how to respond, guys.

    Democrats Know Trump’s Playbook on Race. They’re Not Sure How to Respond.

    NYT > Top Stories / by Reid J. Epstein and Maggie Haberman/ 9min

    The president’s racially divisive attacks on Democrats of color might have been crippling for previous presidents, but many in the party are not convinced they will benefit in 2020

  29. 29.

    OzarkHillbilly

    July 30, 2019 at 6:28 am

    @Raven: What’s she going on about?

  30. 30.

    TS (the original)

    July 30, 2019 at 6:28 am

    @Brachiator:

    This still gives Biden an advantage.

    Definitely agree – Obama carries much weight & Joe can use it. Also gives him much name recognition

  31. 31.

    satby

    July 30, 2019 at 6:32 am

    @Baud: the NYT is garbage
    Edit: and Mag Habs is a dumpster fire.

  32. 32.

    OzarkHillbilly

    July 30, 2019 at 6:32 am

    @Baud: by Reid J. Epstein and Maggie Haberman, ’nuff said.

  33. 33.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 6:48 am

    No surprise to anyone here.

    Trump’s lofty forecasts have not yet been realized. What we’ve been achieving is the more-or-less same trend growth since 2010. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has led the USA to trillion dollar annual deficits; the national debt continues to swell. No one can make the claim — at least not with a straight face — that the TCJA has paid for itself as promised.

    On the whole, left the country’s balance sheet in worse shape than it had been prior to its passage, without a whole lot to show for it. The TCJA has, in every way, been an economic nothing-burger.

  34. 34.

    OzarkHillbilly

    July 30, 2019 at 6:53 am

    @Baud: “This president has done more for this country in 2 years than every President in history has done in 8.” Or so I read on twitter recently.

  35. 35.

    Ken

    July 30, 2019 at 7:00 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: Are you sure it didn’t say “This president has done more harm to this country in 2 years than every enemy nation has done in 250?”

  36. 36.

    OzarkHillbilly

    July 30, 2019 at 7:01 am

    @Ken: She didn’t actually identify which “more” she was speaking of.

  37. 37.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 7:02 am

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Resume padding. It’s not just for grunts.

  38. 38.

    Ken

    July 30, 2019 at 7:08 am

    @Baud: Tumbrels are a kind of response.

  39. 39.

    Bobby Thomson

    July 30, 2019 at 7:11 am

    Shit, these pundits are terrible.

    Like Kerry and candidate Trump, Biden’s numbers improve when he stays out of the news. The more people see him the less they like him. Simple as that.

  40. 40.

    debbie

    July 30, 2019 at 7:13 am

    @barb 2:

    Well, that’s enough for me to start using it!

  41. 41.

    Kay

    July 30, 2019 at 7:13 am

    @Baud:

    It’s really worrisome though. I know they’ll haul out the big deficit show the moment Trump is out of office and I refuse to go along with that – they’re frauds – but it really is bad. In reality.
    We’re going to pay for this. There is no “economy” that will fix this. For it to work their fantasy growth projections had to NOT be a fantasy. The only reason the states that tried this (Kansas, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin) recovered with a better economy is they couldn’t run huge deficits and they all raised taxes after the Brownback experiment. They’re all raising taxes now to pay for 2010-2018. I mean, they’re regressive taxes- fuel and sales taxes and thousands of “fees” but they are revenue. The moment Kasich was out of office they miraculously “discovered” he generated his “surplus” by moving numbers around so immediately started debate on raising the gas tax. And this is with 4% unemployment! It doesn’t get any better than that. It can’t improve and thus raise more revenue. They had to, had to, raise taxes just to do road repairs.

  42. 42.

    AxelFoley

    July 30, 2019 at 7:19 am

    @Brachiator:

    This still gives Biden an advantage.
    It’s early, but Warren, Harris and Sanders have to find a way to appeal to black voters and other groups of Democrats.

    Hah! Sanders can forget that shit. Black voters don’t like his dusty old ass.

  43. 43.

    debbie

    July 30, 2019 at 7:21 am

    @satby:

    Still salty, I see. :-)

  44. 44.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 7:24 am

    @Kay:

    Difficult problems. I’m confident the Internet will find fatal flaws in how the Dems handle them.

  45. 45.

    JPL

    July 30, 2019 at 7:29 am

    If Joe is still viable after the debate, trump will start painting him as the racist. You’re the racist.

  46. 46.

    frosty

    July 30, 2019 at 7:34 am

    @rikyrah: Thanks for starting the last few days with these positive thoughts for our jackals. It reminds me to do the same.

  47. 47.

    Kay

    July 30, 2019 at 7:37 am

    @JPL:

    He’s not my favorite- which I believe I have made clear but that’s the disclaimer- but I am surprised that Biden is running such a negative campaign. It makes sense to me that people polling below him are aggressive, but I’m a little shocked he’s overtly attacking the others. I think a big selling point for him is his optimism and what seems to me (despite his many faults) a genuine ability to get along with others- I don’t recognize this person.

  48. 48.

    Brachiator

    July 30, 2019 at 7:38 am

    @Baud:

    Democrats Know Trump’s Playbook on Race. They’re Not Sure How to Respond.

    NYT > Top Stories / by Reid J. Epstein and Maggie Haberman/ 9min

    The president’s racially divisive attacks on Democrats of color might have been crippling for previous presidents, but many in the party are not convinced they will benefit in 2020

    From racially charged to racially Infused to racially divisive. The NYT is full of shit. Maximum shit. Shitty McShit Shit.

  49. 49.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 7:40 am

    @Kay:

    IMHO it’s an overreaction to his lack of energy. They can’t increase his energy level, so they mask it with negativity.

  50. 50.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 7:44 am

    @Brachiator:

    Right. I wonder if the NYT will ever deign to tell us what side of that divide they fall on.

  51. 51.

    Mr. Mack

    July 30, 2019 at 7:47 am

    Good Morning Jackals. (I’m not a full fledged jackal yet, I mostly lurk) I’m wondering if some of the Biden support isn’t from disgruntled Republicans, who see him as less scary than Warren/Sanders? Around here, (Tennessee) the folks I talked with don’t hate Biden like they do nearly every other D candidate. Not sure why that is.

  52. 52.

    satby

    July 30, 2019 at 7:47 am

    @rikyrah: Good morning and echoing your positive thoughts. Wishing comfort for them all.

    @debbie: I thought calling her MAGA Habs was too obvious.

  53. 53.

    satby

    July 30, 2019 at 7:49 am

    @Mr. Mack: Good morning and welcome to commenting more. Biden is old, white, and looks like the kind of politicians people grew up with. Familiar is comfortable to a lot of folks.

  54. 54.

    Kay

    July 30, 2019 at 7:50 am

    @Baud:

    Maybe. I didn’t consider that. I thought it was maybe a reaction to the D base, who, IMO, want someone who will go after Trump. They really do. It would be a mistake to take GOP pundit’s advice and not focus on Trump and they’re wrong anyway- it has nothing to do with ideology. One can be a centrist and really go after him. Klobachur took more shots at Trump than any of the rest of them in that first debate, part of the reason she hasn’t done a lot of policy is she doesn’t have time- she gets like 20 seconds of attention and she spends all of it attacking Trump. Mayor Pete attacks him constantly and really effectively. Democrats want that – Left, Right and Center, and this isn’t the David Brooks primary. It’s the D base primary. Trump is really unpopular. It’s insane not to go after him. No politician in their right mind should listen to this scolding.
    Imagine if Democrats had an incumbent who is this unpopular. Every Republican in the country down to city council would be attacking him.

  55. 55.

    OzarkHillbilly

    July 30, 2019 at 7:51 am

    @Mr. Mack:

    (I’m not a full fledged jackal yet, I mostly lurk)

    Bullshit. You’re just in denial, trying desperately to hold onto that last thread of respectability..

  56. 56.

    JPL

    July 30, 2019 at 7:51 am

    @Baud: IMHO It’s because he has a weak campaign staff.

  57. 57.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 7:52 am

    Is Daniel W. Drezner a known wingnut? He savages Warren’s trade plan, but I don’t know if I should treat him as credible.

  58. 58.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 7:53 am

    @Mr. Mack:

    The final exam is tough but I have faith in you.

  59. 59.

    Barry

    July 30, 2019 at 7:55 am

    @Baud “This doesn’t explain why all the head-to-head matchups are close except Biden’s.”

    The power of name recognition and incumbency. Remember, to most people Harris, Warren, etc. are unknowns.

  60. 60.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 7:57 am

    @Kay:

    Maybe. I think Dems want a candidate who has the make-up to go after Trump. I don’t know how much of an advantage it is during the primary to spend time just attacking Trump.

  61. 61.

    rikyrah

    July 30, 2019 at 7:58 am

    Haven’t folks like me been telling you that the problem they have with Dolt45 is that he won’t talk in Frank Luntz-approved dogwhistles??

    https://twitter.com/ZerlinaMaxwell/status/1156016577277390850

  62. 62.

    zhena gogolia

    July 30, 2019 at 7:58 am

    @Mr. Mack:

    My disgruntled Republican friend wants to see Biden/Abrams.

  63. 63.

    JPL

    July 30, 2019 at 7:59 am

    @Mr. Mack: Several of the candidates have been painted as socialists, which is a scary word. Since Joe has a known record, it’s difficult to paint him as to far left.
    I still think a Biden/Harris ticket would win, and winning is what we need to do.

  64. 64.

    Kay

    July 30, 2019 at 7:59 am

    @Baud:

    I don’t know if you’ve noticed but their coverage of Biden is 100% negative. This is going to be worse than 2016. They flogged the Joe Biden’s son scandal until it became clear it wasn’t taking off. The fact is they still take GOP operatives as sources. They gave that bullshit credibility because it came from Guiliani. The Trump infatuation is parochial for them. They know these people and they admire them. Trump knows them too. He played NY media for 50 years. This stupid game he plays where he pretends they’re mortal enemies and they pretend he’s a threat to the First Amendment benefits both sides of this supposed “adversarial relationship” and has for 50 years.

  65. 65.

    Bobby Thomson

    July 30, 2019 at 7:59 am

    @Kay: this is the same Joe Biden he’s always been. People overlooked it after 2008 but he’s not the person you thought he was.

  66. 66.

    OzarkHillbilly

    July 30, 2019 at 8:00 am

    Vox- Why isn’t Elizabeth Warren more popular in Massachusetts?

    Why isn’t trump popular in America?

  67. 67.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 8:02 am

    @Kay:

    They’ll flog whoever is in the lead. Hard to believe it can be worse than 2016 though. Their hatred of Hillary was visceral.

  68. 68.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 8:03 am

    @Bobby Thomson:

    Joe stripped of Onion Joe may be a problem.

  69. 69.

    OzarkHillbilly

    July 30, 2019 at 8:04 am

    @Baud:

    Their hatred of Hillary IS visceral.

    FTFY.

    And I’m off for the day. Have fun.

  70. 70.

    Mr. Mack

    July 30, 2019 at 8:04 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: Nailed it.

  71. 71.

    Kay

    July 30, 2019 at 8:05 am

    @Barry:

    It’s good to remind ourselves of that. My middle son and his friends were here last weekend and I asked them who they were supporting and the only candidates they are familiar with are Biden and Bernie. I asked about Warren (who I support) and only one answered “don’t know who she is” – the rest didn’t enlighten him. Same with Harris. They’re early twenties. I don’t know for sure but I think they’re Democratic leaners- my son is an actual Democrat- he voted for Bernie in the primary and Clinton in the general- but the rest seemed to be limiting this to “not Trump” so they would potentially be general election D voters, if not primary voters.

  72. 72.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 8:08 am

    I see the long foretold Great Bison War has begun. Dark days ahead.

  73. 73.

    Steve in the ATL

    July 30, 2019 at 8:09 am

    @Baud:

    Joe stripped of Onion Joe may be a problem.

    Bingo.

    Now if you’ll excuse me, I have an opening argument to give. Gonna stick it to the man! *checks notes, sees that I am the man* Never mind!

  74. 74.

    Barry

    July 30, 2019 at 8:12 am

    @Baud: “They’ll flog whoever is in the lead. Hard to believe it can be worse than 2016 though. Their hatred of Hillary was visceral.”

    The guy in charge of CNN admitted that Trump boosted their ratings to incredible levels in 2016, IIRC. Remember, they figure that the poison won’t effect them, since they are in the ‘in’ group.

    Also, they spent decades sh*tting on the Clintons, for no good reason except that Bill was a Democratic President. They spent far more time and far more vitriol on two people than they spent on all Republicans combined. They can switch to whomever is the Dem nominee quite easily.

  75. 75.

    JPL

    July 30, 2019 at 8:13 am

    @zhena gogolia: I want Abrams to stay in GA. I was disappointed that she didn’t run for Senate in 2020, but truth be known, I doubt that Isakson runs again in 2022 given his health issues, so maybe she is biding her time.

  76. 76.

    Kay

    July 30, 2019 at 8:22 am

    @Bobby Thomson:

    I do have a somewhat bad impression of him- I was active in the bankruptcy bill fight, which, you know, we lost so I was horribly bitter, as is my usual with a loss- so I have followed him for a while and still the negativity is new to me. His floor speech on his bankruptcy vote was very dishonest but positive! He pretended it was about collecting child support. Beefed up child support enforcement was the lame concession they got for that shitty law. Not fooling me.

    But I’m not that principled. I’d vote for him in a heartbeat just for the judges. I’d canvass just for judges. Keep you eye on the prize :)

  77. 77.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 8:41 am

    @Kay:

    Being against fascism is a principle.

  78. 78.

    chris

    July 30, 2019 at 8:42 am

    I recently had the opportunity to visit an Arctic research station. One day we traveled four hours by speedboat to a stretch of exposed permafrost. The ongoing thaw had created a bizarre landscape: spongy terraces, hillocks of soil, disintegrating cliffs & scalloped walls of ice pic.twitter.com/zsezWheIr6— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) July 29, 2019

  79. 79.

    JMG

    July 30, 2019 at 8:43 am

    @Baud: Drezner is no wingnut, but he is a very committed free trader. On the other hand, he praised Warren’s plan to revitalize the State Dept. to the skies.
    I remain convinced Biden’s appeal to Democrats is solely his polling status head-to-head with Trump. That in turn reflects a deep desire among the public for a dull President and dull politics they can ignore. It is hard not to sympathize with that desire.

  80. 80.

    Immanentize

    July 30, 2019 at 8:48 am

    Hi All,. Just a drive by..
    The Immp is miserable but better. They took out his NG tube (the one that goes in the nose and down the throat/esophagus). Huge relief. The new connection is not leaking and they are introducing nutrients, although nothing by mouth except 1 oz sips of water every hour. Progress is measured in amount of farts, which suits him.

    Sitting around at a hospital with a loved one in distress is one of the most exhausting things a human can do.

  81. 81.

    Betty Cracker

    July 30, 2019 at 8:49 am

    @Baud: Drezner is a Republican, so caveat emptor.

  82. 82.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 8:50 am

    Not linking, but fyi.

    Ben Carson says as a pediatric neurosurgeon, he hesitated to send children back to ‘infested’ homes in Baltimore

    Washington Post: Breaking News, World, U… / 18min

  83. 83.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 30, 2019 at 8:50 am

    Dan Lyons @ realdanlyons
    GOP rallies around Trump 9/11 role. “While Obama and Biden were cowering in fear on Air Force 1, Mr. Trump was on the ground with first responders searching for survivors and pulling people to safety,” Jim Jordan says. “I remember seeing him on TV, running toward the danger.”

    the cult is just…. I don’t even know what to say. This guy’s mental images come from those McNaughton paintings

  84. 84.

    Immanentize

    July 30, 2019 at 8:51 am

    @JMG:

    I remain convinced Biden’s appeal to Democrats is solely his polling status head-to-head with Trump.

    I think this might also be Nate Silver’s hypothesis about why Harris has lost half her post-debate bounce.

  85. 85.

    Immanentize

    July 30, 2019 at 8:53 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: is Gym Jordan that stupid?

  86. 86.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 30, 2019 at 8:54 am

    @Kay: – but I am surprised that Biden is running such a negative campaign

    it’s been concern of mine for a while, a combination of the entitlement of the lifelong Senator– I think they all think they should be/have been President– and his redirected grief about his son, those things would turn him bitter if didn’t get the nomination.

  87. 87.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 30, 2019 at 8:55 am

    @Immanentize: don’t you fancy law talkers say in Roman, res ipsa loquitur?

  88. 88.

    zhena gogolia

    July 30, 2019 at 8:56 am

    @Immanentize:

    Oh, God, it’s agonizing. I’m glad there’s progress.

  89. 89.

    Cheryl Rofer

    July 30, 2019 at 9:00 am

    Lol, #MoscowMitch is getting ratioed good.

    I spoke on the Senate floor today about my extensive record of standing up to Russia, election security, and why we won’t let some Democrats exploit this crisis to push unrelated partisan priorities that have been on their wish list long before 2016.https://t.co/EAvjf3RwGX

    — Leader McConnell (@senatemajldr) July 29, 2019

    The Twitter ratio is between replies and likes (or likes + retweets. The numbers don’t show up in this representation of the tweet, but at the moment they are
    replies: 15,646
    retweets: 656
    likes: 1986
    with the replies increasing much faster than the others. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this high a ratio.

  90. 90.

    Immanentize

    July 30, 2019 at 9:00 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Maybe in this case, homo loquitur tantum sibi

  91. 91.

    MomSense

    July 30, 2019 at 9:01 am

    @Immanentize:

    We are all with you in spirit, rooting for Immp and hoping he feels a little better every day.

  92. 92.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 9:04 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    That’s funny. I distinctly remember seeing Trump applauding the terrorists.

  93. 93.

    Kathleen

    July 30, 2019 at 9:13 am

    @Immanentize: You’ve had more than your share of enduring that. Having to watch your child suffer has to be especially difficult. My daughter will be 46 next month but she’s still my baby and I would lose my mind if something happened to her. Take good care of yourself.

  94. 94.

    Betty Cracker

    July 30, 2019 at 9:13 am

    Power tool aficionados: I used wood filler to patch a deep hole my (subsequently fired for incompetence) shower installation contractors gouged in a baseboard in our bathroom. The wood filler was the kind you mix up and apply, and supposedly you have 10 minutes to smooth it over. Well, mine clabbered up on me in about 5 minutes. The hole is filled, but it looks like a handful of gravel. I don’t have a sander, but I could use one, so I thought I’d buy one for this and future jobs. Any recommendations on type and brand? It doesn’t have to be battery powered.

  95. 95.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    July 30, 2019 at 9:16 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: d’oh! sorry– that’s a parody tweet. In my defense, it’s very early and Jordan is a complete moron.

  96. 96.

    Baud

    July 30, 2019 at 9:18 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Hard to tell these days.

  97. 97.

    Elizabelle

    July 30, 2019 at 9:24 am

    @Betty Cracker: Yea! Glad to hear you fired the contractors.

    Good luck with the sander. No clue there.

  98. 98.

    Betty Cracker

    July 30, 2019 at 9:25 am

    @Elizabelle: Yep, we fired them, and I am working on a service review that will redefine “scathing.” :)

  99. 99.

    Elizabelle

    July 30, 2019 at 9:26 am

    @Immanentize: Immp is in my thoughts. Hope the cancer is gone, gone, gone and that he will be feeling exponentially better soonest.

    ETA: You are too! How do you occupy yourself while waiting at the hospital? Do you and Immp need any good reading or audio suggestions? I am fresh out, but the jackals could help out there.

  100. 100.

    Elizabelle

    July 30, 2019 at 9:28 am

    @Betty Cracker: You must share it here.

  101. 101.

    Quinerly

    July 30, 2019 at 9:33 am

    @Immanentize: thanks for checking in. Sending hugs to you both.

  102. 102.

    CaseyL

    July 30, 2019 at 9:54 am

    @Immanentize: Thanks for checking in!

    Glad Immp’s in good, or at least improving, spirits. “Measuring progress in farts” would make a great T-shirt :)

  103. 103.

    Kelly

    July 30, 2019 at 10:00 am

    @Betty Cracker: I’m still using my Dad’s Makita orbital sander. He passed away in 1992 and he’d had it a while then. Makita makes good tools.

  104. 104.

    smintheus

    July 30, 2019 at 10:02 am

    @low-tech cyclist: Yes they are making too much out of the Q poll, which has a small Dem sample size. Btw the MoE for the Dem primary results part of the Q poll is not 4% but 5.1% because of that small sample.

  105. 105.

    smintheus

    July 30, 2019 at 10:20 am

    @Betty Cracker: DeWalt makes good sanders also. Small jobs I usually do by hand, though, partly because my old house doesn’t have many outlets.

  106. 106.

    UncleEbeneezer

    July 30, 2019 at 10:24 am

    @Steve in the ATL: To quote TOOL’s song Hooker With A Penis (a response to fan claims that they had recently sold out):

    Well now I’ve got some bad advice for you, little buddy.
    Before you point the finger you should know that I’m the man,
    And if I’m the man, then you’re the man, and he’s the man as well
    So you can point that fuckin’ finger up your ass.

  107. 107.

    Mary G

    July 30, 2019 at 10:26 am

    @Immanentize: Yes, it’s grueling, sitting in the hospital watching and waiting. Sounds like a bit of progress happening.

  108. 108.

    laura

    July 30, 2019 at 10:30 am

    @Immanentize: the only thing worse than sitting in the hospital bearing witness to a loved one’s suffering, is not being able to be there. Wishing Immp continued improvement and comfort to you.

  109. 109.

    UncleEbeneezer

    July 30, 2019 at 10:31 am

    @Kay: The simplest explanation is that Kamala ruffled Biden’s feathers and that he wants to start taking the gloves off to show his fighting nature. Remember this is an old white dude who probably thinks he’s earned the nomination and likely things his frontrunner status is due to his own excellence rather than familiarity/Obama-coattails. His reaction to Booker on the issue of his old Segregationist buddies indicates that Booker/Harris really struck a nerve. I can see him being really pissed that these upstarts are questioning his history and sincerely challenging him. Also, there’s also been a ton of Hillary-didn’t-fight-hard-enough! bullshit from the media and Left for the past 3 years, that it’s likely he believes that too.

  110. 110.

    Matt McIrvin

    July 30, 2019 at 10:39 am

    The thing about Trump’s racism is that it seemed like a loser before and he still won. Even if it repels the median American, it’s still a winner if it turns out more of his supporters in a few key swing states than it does of his opposition. So preventing that should be the focus.

  111. 111.

    The Moar You Know

    July 30, 2019 at 10:42 am

    Any recommendations on type and brand? It doesn’t have to be battery powered.

    @Betty Cracker: DeWalt orbital. Something exactly like this:

    DeWalt Corded Orbital Sander

    I build guitars in my non-existent spare time and I tend to beat the shit out of sanders – these work well and hold up nicely. And are cheap!

  112. 112.

    Jerzy Russian

    July 30, 2019 at 10:49 am

    @Betty Cracker: You might to start out with a belt sander if your lump of gravel sticks up higher than the surrounding baseboard. Once the hump is ground down, switch to an orbital sander. My belt sander is a Ryobi, and I think the orbital sander is a DeWalt.

  113. 113.

    Jerzy Russian

    July 30, 2019 at 10:52 am

    @Immanentize: Thanks for the update. Waiting is hard, hopefully you have something to take your mind off things.

    Progress is measured in amount of farts, which suits him.

    Please tell me there is a fartometer machine. Given that I have been 12 years old for the last 40 years, I would be interested in hearing more about such a machine.

  114. 114.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    July 30, 2019 at 11:08 am

    @Jerzy Russian: I think this would be an excellent application for the latest generation of AI. For instance, knowing how to decide whether to classify something as one long fart or 10 small ones. Academic types could probably get at least a couple of journal papers and conference presentations out of it.

  115. 115.

    Betty Cracker

    July 30, 2019 at 11:38 am

    Thanks for the sanders recs!

  116. 116.

    StringOnAStick

    July 30, 2019 at 12:20 pm

    @Betty Cracker: You can rent tools too, in case you don’t want to buy either a belt sander or an orbital sander. I’ve got an orbital Makita and while I bought it for just one specific job (not knowing I could rent!) I’ve found it to be super handy for so many things. I’m probably using it outside it’s proper use parameters but I pay attention if it feels like it is getting hot. I don’t think I would use a belt sander as much so I don’t have one, which is how the orbital one gets abused sometimes.

  117. 117.

    StringOnAStick

    July 30, 2019 at 12:23 pm

    Has anyone seen a comment from Scotian recently? I’ll check back later.

    I’m going back to work tomorrow on my 4 week old new knee and my 20 week old other new knee. Given what I do (dental hygienist, which is another name for “work at frantic levels for 8 hours straight then go home and collapse), the next few weeks are going to be very hard, just like they were after the first knee replacement. Thankfully I only work 2 days a week or I would have just quit and looked for a new job another month from now.

  118. 118.

    Searcher

    July 30, 2019 at 12:35 pm

    I assume people are just really, really desperate to never have a Gen X President. If we can just keep electing Boomers+ for a little bit longer, you’ll have some nice, mature, 40- or 50-year-old Millennials to take the reins in 2028 or 2032.

  119. 119.

    SiubhanDuinne

    July 30, 2019 at 1:27 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    Thanks for the sanders recs!

    Wait, people on this blog are supporting bernie now?

  120. 120.

    frosty

    July 30, 2019 at 7:34 pm

    @Betty Cracker: All my tools are DeWalt now. Burned out too many Black and Deckers. OTOH my Craftsman drill from the 70s finally gave up the ghost last year.

    TBH, any of the non-budget brands are good. DeWalt used to be from Baltimore (so was B&D) so that swayed my choice.

    ETA for sanders: I like the quarter-sheet orbital. Get one that lets you plug a shopvac into it in lieu of the dust bag, in case you get a big messy job down the line.

  121. 121.

    frosty

    July 30, 2019 at 7:46 pm

    @StringOnAStick: @Betty Cracker:
    I have a belt sander, too, which I rarely use. It’s an excellent tool for screwing up your work piece in less time than it takes to say “Oh, shit!”

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