[Little boy sweeps arm through Magna-tile building he & Little Girl just built]
LB: You know why our building fell?
LG: You knocked it over
LB: No, it’s because we need a plan
LG: [skeptically]: And you have a plan?
LB: I have lots of plans!Pause
LG: I’m going to do a puzzle
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) August 6, 2019
Sorry, repeating WE WILL BREAK ALL THE THINGS is not a plan. Not a plan that’s liable to succeed, anyways…
New HuffPost/YouGov poll on the second debates: Elizabeth Warren had another very good night. https://t.co/uKNroKIBt9
(Now the question is: will that help her to strengthen her standing in the primary, either temporarily or in the long term?) pic.twitter.com/YvyGLy2ADu
— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 5, 2019
Two nuggets jump out at me in the new Q poll on 2020 Democrats:
• Warren has lapped Sanders with “very liberal” voters — she gets 40% to Bernie’s 20%
• Harris is at 1% with black voters ?? https://t.co/DodRyOpKI3
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) August 6, 2019
I’ll vote for the eventual nominee, but this is why I’m hoping that will be either Warren or Harris.
I’d be fine voting for Klobuchar or Gillibrand, too, but right now it doesn’t seem like their chances are good. (And of course it would gravely affect my blood pressure to vote for Gabbard or Williamson, but they’re not candidates, they’re spoilers promoted by foreign powers and useful idiots.)
Side issue: Maybe Beto O’Rorke can be Warren’s VP candidate / ‘anger translator‘?
I think a lot of people have been waiting to see a candidate as angry as Beto is right now.
— Matt Pearce ? (@mattdpearce) August 5, 2019
This is a good point that only white male candidates like Beto have the ability to display anger and remain viable candidate. This is not a criticism of Beto. https://t.co/GuHfdWKb7I
— David M. Perry (@Lollardfish) August 5, 2019
Roger Moore
Breaking all the things is a plan that’s likely to succeed. What won’t succeed is the part where you then rebuild everything better than it was before. Part 1 will have support from all the nihilists in the Republican Party who have been trying to blow up the government since forever, but they’ll fight tooth and nail against Part 2.
Baud
Maybe I should change my gender identity on this blog to female.
lamh36
Coming September 2020…just in time for the heat of campaign season 2020!
MazeDancer
Not Gillibrand.
And I live in NY.
The only reason to vote Gillibrand is in a 3-way race with Sanders and Gabbard, which, fortunately, ain’t gonna happen.
Gillibrand can’t raise enough money to go on. All the usual checkbooks in Manhattan slammed shut when she led the charge against Franken.
joel hanes
Harris is at 1% with black voters
The bad-faith attacks of the Gabbard crew had their intended effect.
David Koch
Speaking of women – Yikes!
We shoulda seen this coming. The Squad is literally at each other’s throats. (photo)⚽
Baud
@joel hanes:
I question that cause and effect.
zhena gogolia
OT, I love Bill Bojangles Robinson.
geg6
I like the Warren/O’Rourke idea. I like how both have handled their comments. What I’ve seen from Warren has been passionate but she speaks calmly and sensibly about this moment and what needs to be done. O’Rourke has just been pretty spectacular at channeling all the outrage and anger, at the festering boil in the WH and at the media, we are all feeling. Debates may not be his thing, but he’s really good off the cuff.
Chyron HR
Is there any greater proof of Democrat perfidy than the way they’ve rigged the primary in favor of both Biden AND Warren?
debbie
@Baud:
I’d bet it’s more about being pro-Biden than anti-Harris. If he weren’t running, Harris would have a larger percentage.
oatler.
“I’m mad as hell and I’m not gonna take it anymore!” No, wait, Paddy Chayefsky is dead.
zhena gogolia
@debbie:
The Russian/Gabbard/Trumpist bots pretending to be black people who hate Harris may have had an effect.
mrmoshpotato
But everyone knows if a lightbulb isn’t the brightness you want, you burn down your house and dig up the foundation! That’s just common sense! Duh!
P.S. “Eww Hillary!” x 77000+
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
What was her share of black vote before the debate?
Shana
Regarding that last tweet from David Perry, that’s why Obama’s anger translator Luther was so terrific.
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
I have no idea. I assume it was larger or the person wouldn’t have remarked on it.
Nicole
In agreement with you on all, Anne Laurie. My personal preferred slogan is still No White Men 2020.
Cacti
@joel hanes:
Why assume black people are easily fooled?
Cory Booker doesn’t have Harris’s baggage as a prosecutor, and his total support is within the margin of error.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
7%
Martin
Harris will win over black voters. Give it time.
Nicole
@zhena gogolia:
I agree. Astounding how coordinated the attacks are and how fast they get out.
lamh36
@joel hanes: I don’t believe for one minute that Harris is at 1% with Black voters.
Looking at the top four numbers, and different tale is seen… Biden 47%, Sanders 16%, Warren 8%, Harris 1%. Biden is riding on pro-PBO Black voters…that’s what that number means. That’s 31% above his closes which is Sanders. My bet is that among Black votes, Sanders and Warren are name recognition numbers, not solid support. Harris is suffering from being the non-name recognition amongst the top 4.
PsiFighter37
@Baud: Way higher than 1%, that’s for sure.
I also doubt that Gabbard’s attack – even if well-executed – had much of an effect. I would venture to guess that Biden’s steadying performance, combined with Harris having a much more uneven performance, contributed to doubts. There’s still a bit of time to go, but Harris has not demonstrated an ability to break through.
Methinks this ends up coming down to Biden v. Warren at the end. I would like one of the younger candidates to be part of the mix as well, but Harris is fading, Mayor Pete is most definitely not the answer, and while Beto has recaptured some of the optimism as a beacon of hope in El Paso after the shooting, I think he’s floundered for too long at this point.
Cacti
@Martin:
She needs to come up with a better response than she had prepared for Gabbard, which is to say, none at all.
lamh36
@Cacti:
Gabbard’s Harris attacks are aimed at social media millenials and young white progressives. Black voters have no idea who the hell Tulsi is…and they may not be behind Harris…you can bet that see through Tulsi’s attacks.
And judging by the number of white progressives I’ve seen on SM with the saying the same thing you just did…it’s obviously making a mark on her intended audience
Baud
@PsiFighter37:
Nothing really matters before Labor Day except for weeding out the dregs.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: I thought you were an ambisexual walnut.
chris
Just a moment of happiness in the shitstorm. With video.
Jay
Anne Laurie
@PsiFighter37:
Biden is, IMO, really looking his age these days.
He’s run for President before, twice, and both times his originally promising campaigns blew up because he got distracted and started making stupid mistakes. My guess is somewhere between this October and January 2020, if he doesn’t drop out first, we’ll see the same pattern repeated. Probably in much more spectacular fashion, because social media today moves so much faster than traditional media did during Biden’s last run.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: Also, the ADOS movement is funded by the Center for Immigration Studies and FAIR folks. These are the people Stephen Miller is aligned with.
PsiFighter37
@Anne Laurie: I doubt it. If Trump has proven anything, sadly, it’s that what would have qualified as a WTF moment previously may barely register in today’s context. Biden could plagiarize an entire thesis for a speech, and it wouldn’t have the same effect that copying a passage in 1988 did.
mrmoshpotato
@Chyron HR: I’m not sure if this is sarcasm or not.
Everyone knows the yet-to-occur primaries are all rigged against Wilmer anyway. << That definitely is sarcasm.
Harbison
Yeah Women!
PsiFighter37
@Baud: The dreg-weeding is going slowly, given that you have 3 candidates – Swalwell, Ryan, and Gravel (if you count teenagers running a stunt campaign as meaningful) – having dropped out, while two more (Sestak and Steyer) have jumped in. I really hope it picks up once folks miss the next debate, but someone like de Blasio seems to hate his actual job, so he may keep wasting everyone’s time for a while.
Cacti
@Anne Laurie:
I think you’re going to be disappointed. Because so far, of the top 5 candidates, 4 of them are competing for the left wing, and are basically ceding the rest of the field to Biden.
mrmoshpotato
@Adam L Silverman: Baud is an ambisexual modem of undisclosed baud rate.
Jay
@PsiFighter37:
Its only IOKIYAR, otherwise it’s an offence worthy of crucifixion.
Felanius Kootea
@Baud: I bet Barack was at close to 1% with black voters at this stage of his first primary (with Hillary). If I recall correctly, black voters didn’t back him until he showed he could get white voters on his side in the early primary states. Black voters are the most pragmatic of the Democratic party. However, Tulsi Gabbard isn’t helping and is clearly trying to knock Kamala out of the race, not to win herself. Kamala needs to show she can battle back. Not fair but that’s the way it is.
Jay
PsiFighter37
@Felanius Kootea: Tulsi is doing whatever her cult leader is telling her to do. Who knows where on earth her actual head is at.
Doug R
@Baud:
You have a gender?
HalfAssedHomesteader
Times have changed. I remember when an outburst like Beto’s would have sent him the way of Howard Dean.
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
I really hope voters back off Biden soon. I love him, but he’s going to be 78 when he takes the oath if he wins. I don’t think we need that. Warren would be 71. I’m only speaking for myself, but I don’t think we need any more 70 year old presidents.
Doug R
@PsiFighter37:
She’s just following orders.
FelonyGovt
I really like Beto’s anger. But you’re right, neither the women candidates, nor Booker, would be able to get away with what he’s been saying.
lamh36
@Felanius Kootea: if folks think white women candidates aren’t restricted from showing anger, then black women candidates are even more restricted. No matter how she strikes back at Tulsi she’ll be the Angry Black Lady
Seems to me, her reaction to Tulsi’s BS is to strengthen her campaign ground game in early states.
debbie
@HalfAssedHomesteader:
Maybe that shows just how fed up people have become with this mass shooting crap.
Jay
West of the Rockies
I will point out that Barack’s MO wasn’t to break everything. But, yes, a woman needs to be given a fair chance. Harris or Warren, please.
Anne Laurie
@PsiFighter37:
Nah, it won’t be a ‘plagarized’ speech this time — he / his staff are better than that. But he’s older now, and too often seems to be coasting on political muscle memory & sheer stubbornness. There was a certain amount of on-line WTF-ing over last weekend, when he misspoke about ‘Michigan’ instead of ‘Ohio’ in reference to the Dayton massacre, but there was so much other stuff that none of the major outlets picked it up. If he’s the nominee, he’ll be drawing enough general scrutiny that he won’t be able to count on Lord Smallgloves sucking up all the media oxygen, and that will be bad for all us Democrats. Which is why I’m figuring (kinda hoping) that he won’t get that far in the first place — better he’s ‘betrayed’ by the Warren / Harris / Buttigieg / whomever campaigns this year, than by the GOP in October 2020.
Jay
West of the Rockies
@lamh36:
Call me a weirdo, but I am fine with Kamala being angry (and I’m a mature white male).
Patricia Kayden
@Martin: Any of the top candidates should have no problems getting the Black vote come November 2020. By then Trump will be openly shouting the N word during his Klan rallies.
Felanius Kootea
@lamh36: Yeah, I was shocked to hear Cornell Belcher push the line that Kamala was in danger of being labeled the Angry Black Lady on the Daily Show last week, after the second debate. He may have been on to something though. I’ve seen her support among my white colleagues go down. The black ones are decidedly pro-Biden but they were also pro-Clinton in 2008; I distinctly recall one person telling me that Barack would be assassinated and he wasn’t going to have Barack’s death on his conscience when I announced that I was going to canvas for him in Nevada. He voted for Clinton in the primary.
Ohio Mom
My sister, who is the tote-bagger I know best, is despondent over the Democratic choices. They are awful except for Biden, who is too old, and Warren’s plans are unrealistic (translation: too radical). She didn’t list any of the other candidates’ shortcomings except to say some of them should run for Senate instead.
I don’t know what my point is, except I am reminded that I live in a bubble because there are lots of candidates I’m excited about and I think Warren’s proposals are right on target.
zhena gogolia
@debbie:
Yeah, I don’t think Beto’s righteous anger is the same as the Dean scream at all.
frosty
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.):
I don’t either. I’m getting close enough in age and even in good health I know I couldn’t keep up the pace. It’s one of the reasons I lean Harris over Warren.
Jay
zhena gogolia
@West of the Rockies:
You are weird. I had white men at lunch the other day saying how they didn’t like the way she attacked Biden, it seemed so “planned.” I said if she didn’t make a plan for the debates she was an idiot.
Anne Laurie
@Felanius Kootea:
My memory of 2007/8 aligns with yours — and I’m seeing that argument from Kamala-stans, too.
A lot of Biden’s support, not least among those voters with the most to lose, is that he’s the “safest” choice. As everyone learns more about *all* the candidates, Biden’s bound to drop in the polls, and others will get various percentages of his lost voters. My guess (hope) at this point is that Harris is well-positioned to get a lot of “sensible / centrist” Democrats on her side.
(Full disclosure: My dream ticket at this point in time is Harris / Warren, as the likliest winning team. But I’m open to alternatives!)
mrmoshpotato
@Patricia Kayden:
And lynching effigies of Obama, because he can’t stand that he’s a POS that’ll never amount to anything remotely close to the first non-white President.
Martin
@HalfAssedHomesteader: I think ‘grab them by the püssy’ and ‘shithole countries’ has lifted the taboo on speech for candidates.
Jay
@Ohio Mom:
The “we can’t accomplish shit so why bother trying” is not an election winning demographic.
smintheus
Martin
@Felanius Kootea: That’s exactly right. And Obama didn’t do very well in the early debates. People need to give this time.
Tulsi won’t be in any more debates. The field will narrow and the debates will focus.
Jay
@zhena gogolia:
Mysogeny is the adder-all of choice for mediocre white males.
Anne Laurie
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.):
In my favorite Senator’s defence, I’ll point out that 71-year-old women are actuarially more likely than 78-year-old men to be alive & healthy for four more years. But it’s one reason I’m paying close attention to either candidate’s choice for VP, to be sure.
smintheus
@joel hanes: I think it’s probably a fault in the poll, which also has Booker showing virtually no black support. Q polls have rather modest sample sizes, which means that their cross tabs are suspect.
Baud
@Jay:
Good think no one is actually running on that platform.
Anne Laurie
@West of the Rockies:
Heck, I’d have been happy to see President Obama break a lot more of the idiotic DC ‘both sides’ conventions!
But I know he wouldn’t have been elected in the first place if he hadn’t shown all possible deference to The Way Things Are Done, so I can’t fault him for being cautious.
Suzanne
I am having a really hard time with Spawn the Elder this summer and especially today, but I have found some mirth in #feralhogs today.
My contribution:
And it’s a long day
Living in Reseda
There’s 30-50 feral hogs
Running through the yard
Jay
Kay
@Baud:
OMG. Shameless pandering.
HalfAssedHomesteader
@chris: Were the raccoons charged? Cuz I mean, come on…
Ohio Mom
@Jay: My sister will vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is, same as me.
I might be describing my process as crawling over broken glass, and she may be describing hers as holding her nose, but same end result. Her vote may end up more important than mine — Michigan v. the lost cause state of Ohio.
chris
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.): I like the idea that the president should be young enough to live 10 or 20 years with the results of their policies. So, Kamala it is.
Jay
Amir Khalid
@smintheus:
Don’t swear. It’s fucking rude.
Kay
I feel like it’s nice because we have a number. We need +/- 20k extra voters in each of WI, MI and PA to counterattack the “disgruntled Dem leaning voter bloc”. Doable.
Jay
Baud
@Kay: You expected better?
Amir Khalid
@chris:
If you applied that rule to Jimmy Carter, he could have run in his early eighties.
kindness
I question the value of polls at this point in the elections. Very few people are locked in to a candidate. Most Americans aren’t giving it a thought since the election is over a year away. Just because we’re political junkies doesn’t mean most people are. Sometimes I question whether most people could name their Congressperson.
Sab
@Anne Laurie: Traditional media completely ignored Biden running for President pre-Obama.
Anne Laurie
@Amir Khalid: Hand-to-Murphy quote from my mother, back when her youngest were in grade school: “I don’t care what the little bastids in the fekkin’ playground do — in this house, we use decent language!”
(P.S, no, it was not sarcasm. She was a very smart woman, but my one sister & I firmly believe we inherited our sense of humor from our father.)
Jay
Amir Khalid
@kindness:
Polling won’t tell you for sure who will be the nominee, true. But I think it does give you an idea, however rough, of which candidates are getting traction and which aren’t.
chris
@Amir Khalid: Liz looks like she might make a century. Where does she find the energy?
Jay
trollhattan
@West of the Rockies:
I thought she sliced and diced Kavanaugh very effectively and did not sprinkle even a little sugar on it.
trollhattan
@Amir Khalid:
I got fuckin’ told that shit on this here fuckin’ blog just last fuckin’ week.
Can you believe it?
O. Felix Culpa
@PsiFighter37: Oh no, Biden is a Democrat, therefore old rules still apply. Didn’t you get the memo?
Paul W.
I’m biased because I’m a Texan, but I’ve been on the Warren/Beto train for the entire primary so far (in large part because I think he can flip Texas).
His no fucks left to give attitude as only added to that feeling. Also, he is 100% right and only he and Warren have consistently called on impeachment as a moral imperative during both debates.
HalfAssedHomesteader
@zhena gogolia: I don’t think it’s the same either. I guess I’m still a bit miffed that he was discarded because he showed too much enthusiasm at his own rally.
A Ghost To Most
@Amir Khalid: I would contend it is way fucking past time to be rude.
lamh36
@Jay: I’m watching the faux outrage as it happens on twitter. So far majority of clowning the usually stenographer journos who are just sooo outraged…like Maggie here
Ya see maggie trying to come sideways at Joy Ann. I mean all Joy did was ask a simple question Mags…
ttps://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1158906463470981120
Suzanne
@Paul W.: I have been pro-Beto-for-Veep for a while now. I think he’s incredibly effective as a straight-talker. It’s also a good way to transition leadership to the younger generation, without taking anybody solid out of their existing job.
trollhattan
When she was pondering the race I got sidetracked on age and the Pocahontas thing but Warren has consistently run the best campaign since entering. What I truly value is she is both wide and deep wrt issues. Nobody has ever stumped her, not once, and her ability to deal with the likes of Tweety last week…[chef’s kiss].
Biden notwithstanding, I think she’s got the upper hand longterm. She would make an excellent president.
schrodingers_cat
Coming back from my town Ds meeting. We had gin and tonics and pizza and planned how to register the people who were not registered to vote.
It was a good boost to my depressive mood from yesterday.
Omnes Omnibus
@lamh36: That is also one of the reasons Obama had to continue to make conciliatory gestures to the GOP in Congress long after anyone with sense knew that would come of them..Of course he knew the score at least as well as the average Balloon Juice commentet, but if he ever came out and said anything like :”The GOP is being intransigent,” a shitload of even his supporters would hear this.
trollhattan
@Suzanne:
Do you think his presidential campaign team has handled Beto poorly? I thought his senate campaign was brilliant, in large part because he was allowed to be himself, and his presidential campaign has been hamhanded. IDK anything about either organization.
A Ghost To Most
Cool. I just did a jump test on the folding footstool I am finishing up, and I didn’t crash to the floor and burn. I love it when an idea becomes concrete.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Nice.
That’s one way to get more people to attend.
SRW1
@chris:
The thought of Charles and Camilla ascending to the throne?
Baud
@lamh36:
Haha. She’s afraid her ideas will be treated like the feral hogs.
Martin
@chris: For me it’s not about health or survivability or whatever. Who cares.
For me it’s about being in touch with the zeitgeist of the next generation, what they are focused on, how they view the world and how it should respond to things. I think of how whites cannot possibly fully understand how blacks view the world, in part, because whites like me are disconnected from the spaces where my fellow black citizens communicate openly amongst themselves. I can appreciate that disconnect, and respect it, but I can’t substitute for it. I’m thankful to have a few black friends that speak at least somewhat openly with me, but it’s not a substitute for them speaking for themselves (which they often don’t feel safe doing, I’ll add).
The same is now true for younger voters. They don’t give a fuck what the NYT op-ed page has to say. It’s just another out of touch publication run by old people. You’ll find them on Reddit, or Instagram, or Discord or wherever. The median age of Democrats is around 45. That means almost half of Democrats are millennials or younger. Their political baseline is Obama, not Clinton or Reagan. Biden cannot speak to them. He simply can’t see the world the way they do – and they’re half the party! Warren can’t really either – though she does a good job listening to her advisors and making a good run at it. I think she’s doing as good a job as someone her age can do. But if you look at how Beto and Buttigieg communicate, it’s much better aligned with those voters.
In the same way that if we care about women and people of color we should support women and people of color as candidates, as a party that is trending younger (white millennial women trend Democratic almost as strongly as black voters do), then we really need to support younger candidates, as that will come through in this election if there is a contrast there.
These play into my support for Harris. She’s Gen X, but she’s better able to connect with young voters. It’s why I like AOC. She shows what young people can do if we give them a shot. Does she make mistakes? Sure, but shit, she’s getting it done. Democratic voters have been younger for some time. Harris would be 8 years older than Obama, 9 years older than Clinton, 3 years older than Carter! And she’s 17 years younger than Warren. Democrats do well when we put youth in office. They bring bigger and more modern ideas. That’s important for a progressive agenda.
The oldest president that Democrats have elected into office was Wilson, age 56. Truman was 60 when he took over for FDR. Johnson was 55 when he took over for JFK.
FDR was 51 when he was elected, JFK 43, Clinton 46, Obama 47. They’re the democrats we point to as having successfully advanced progressive policies. I love Warren. She’s my 2nd choice, but I really want someone who also has a real connection to young voters. I don’t think dueling septegenerians is a great way to get 19 year olds out to vote.
trollhattan
@Baud:
Discovered Hendricks a couple years ago and G&Ts suddenly leapfrogged into the stratosphere. Admittedly, I did plant a lime tree to support the G&T habit but lost interest along the way. They’re not quite ready this year, however.
B.B.A.
@MazeDancer: Fellow New Yorker. I think that says more about the donor class than it does about Gillibrand.
Harris has the best chance of beating Trump. Yes, better than Biden. If we don’t nominate her, it’s our funeral.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Our group is pretty small and fun!
Martin
@trollhattan: Plymouth. You can thank me later.
Omnes Omnibus
@Felanius Kootea: I have to say that the more I see of her the more I like her. I do think that she and Biden fell a little too easily into the “Why don’t you guys fight” shit that the moderators were setting up, but I think she is smart enough not to walk into that one a second time. Contrary to the general run of the comments on this thread, I think (and have mentioned before) that a Harris-O’Rourke ticket would be pretty fearsome.
lamh36
@lamh36:
So Maggie’s answer to Joy simple question is to get all “Miss Ann” snippy w/Joy.
Typical…”Miss Ann” actions…
Course Joy Ann ain’t even pressed by Maggie
https://twitter.com/JoyAnnReid/status/1158912541202010112
mrmoshpotato
@Jay: Sentencing: Whenever the lunchbox-buying customer who one of you fuckers shot wants to punch either of you in the dick to his heart’s content, you must drive to his house and get punched in the dick until he says he’s done for the time being. This is a lifetime sentence.
Omnes Omnibus
@Anne Laurie: I’ll ask again – why would either Harris or Warren take the VP slot?
Baud
@lamh36:
That’s always the case.
Baud
@Martin:
I don’t know. How about we support who we support and not worry about who other voters prefer, and then support the ultimate winner without engaging in conspiracy theories about how they won?
ETA: Obviously, that means you can support someone if you think they’re more attractive to a particular cohort. It’s your choice how you decide who to vote for.
Omnes Omnibus
@Suzanne: A colleague of mine at work has a high school aged child who is transitioning to male. He described how he’s feeling to her as going through puberty and menopause at the same time.
smintheus
@Martin: Where in the world did you get the idea that Harris is well liked by younger voters? In the latest Q poll, her support among people aged 18-34 is only 5%. Warren, whom you denigrate as too old to connect with young people, has 25% support among that age bracket. And Sanders, another old fart, has 24% support.
To judge by those cross tabs, Harris gets her best level of support among older and richer voters.
mrmoshpotato
@schrodingers_cat: Were they like my dad makes his? Gin gin gin gin gin tonic.
clay
@lamh36: Wow. The support for Haberman in her own twitter feed is approximately zero. Seriously, I couldn’t find a single comment that said she was right about this. She’s getting absolutely dragged.
smintheus
@lamh36: As I understand the Republican/Haberman position, Trump can endanger all Hispanics living or visiting the US by demonizing them as invaders who need to be driven out, but Hispanics cannot endanger Trump’s supporters by pointing out that they donated money to his campaign. The latter should be done only in quiet rooms.
Mary G
@lamh36: Joy gave it right back to her.
Omnes Omnibus
@Martin:
People on this blog keep telling me that being born in 1964 makes me a Boomer.
Kay
@lamh36:
They seem to be concerned that printing the donations will harm these people’s businesses. So I think one has to ask, what would be enough to stop patronizing their businesses if one is their customer or potential customer and feels targeted by Donald Trump?
If getting gunned down in a Wal Mart isn’t enough, what would be enough? At what point are they allowed to, say, use a different real estate agent or go to another car wash based on political donations? Mass murder isn’t enough so what would be?
I just want to know where the line is. I can’t find it.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Axis Sally Haberman
joel hanes
@Cacti:
Why assume black people are easily fooled?
That wasn’t so much my assumption,
though I can see why that’s your reaction.
I commented in haste, and employed the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.
I was under the impression that Harris had been doing better with black people.
Gabbard attacked.
Now Harris is at 1%
Maybe nothing happened.
I retract and will await counsel from wiser heads.
If you believe that she’s at 1%, why do you think that’s so?
chris
@Martin: Thanks, I like that thinking too.
Martin
@Baud: No conspiracy theories needed. My point is that if we are looking to beat Trump, we recognize that turnout matters. We recognize that nominating women for office tends to turn out women voters. That was 2018. We recognize that nominating people of color for office tends to turn people of color out. That was 2008. But youth also has a turnout. Young voters turnout jumped WAY more than those other groups in 2008 and in 1992.
The numbers suggest to me that there’s more potential upside in the 18-29 demographic than there is in the white working class demographic. Young voters, like women, can’t be gerrymandered. If you can turn those two groups out, you largely break through the structural advantage the GOP has.
You can’t turn out 60+ voters. They’re already maxed out. You can pull up 45-59 a bit. They vary by 3-5%. 30-44 year olds vary by 8-10%. 18-29 year olds vary by 20%. If you’re at the low end of the 18-29 group, that’s 2000. If you’re at the high end of that, that’s 2008.
Young voters like young candidates. That counts toward electability.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Not as dangerous as back to school shopping in El Paso
Martin
@Omnes Omnibus: You’re on the cusp as she is. I’d lean toward GenX, personally. Boomers started in 46. 18 years is too long for a single generation. Your experiences were nothing like my dads experiences (born 46, entered the navy in 65, rather than go to to Vietnam.)
mrmoshpotato
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: And not as disastrous as sucking Dump’s ass for 18 months. To hell with Maggie Haberman.
zhena gogolia
@lamh36:
Great thread!
Martin
@Kay:
Tough shit. Their money doesn’t earn them benefits over the rest of us.
If donating to Trump gets you boycotted, then don’t donate to Trump. Easy peasy. Every donation I’ve given is publicly available. Even my salary is public. They can cope.
Wapiti
@Ohio Mom: I went to a Warren barnstorming event at University of Washington two weeks back. There were at least 300, maybe 400 people who turned out with some interest in helping the campaign, which I thought was pretty good for 8 months prior to the state primary.
Kay
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
They don’t take Donald Trump seriously as a threat. I would like them to honestly answer what would change their minds. What would have to happen? What would take it outside “politics as usual” for them? Because I think what people are afraid of is that they follow the this day to day and they get to know the people around him and they lose sight of how he, and the country, seem to be increasingly out of control. So if you’re an outsider – not an insider- and you’re watching this unfold, you wonder where the line is and if they even have the perspective to draw one. That’s what the complaints (and fear) around “normalizing” back in the beginning of this were really about. People wanted to know where the line was, because they had the sense it was being shifted to accommodate Donald Trump. And to a large extent that has happened. That was a rational fear and it has come to pass. You don’t know where the bottom is.
zhena gogolia
@Martin:
I love Penzey’s — they’re absolutely clear where they stand. That’s why my spice cabinet has run out of room.
smintheus
I see in tomorrow’s Guardian that Jared Kushner has negotiated a 4.2 billion dollar deal with Saudi Arabia for the sale of next-generation video games and stealth bombers. This could destabilize the Middle East further.
mrmoshpotato
@Martin: But no one knew he was a racist, misogynistic, homophobic, xenophobic POS until inauguration! /S
Martin
Who says Trump isn’t wearing off on Pence:
chris
@mrmoshpotato: Certainly no one born and raised in New York Fucking City!
PsiFighter37
@mrmoshpotato: She is a legacy hire who has managed to fail upwards. I hope her career goes the way of Judith Miller, which is to say that she loses her job at NYT and ends up on Faux News, which is what she deserves. Insanely stupid and acts cravenly to blatantly maintain access. Fuck her.
mrmoshpotato
@PsiFighter37: Also, to hell with Maureen Dowd.
sigyn
@lamh36: I hope Joy Ann told Mugs that if she wanted to “take this discussion outside” she should name the time & place. She could close with “You let me know” too!
PsiFighter37
@mrmoshpotato: That’s been the case since the ’90s, though, when she couldn’t get enough of writing about the Clenis.
mrmoshpotato
@PsiFighter37: Haha! Clenis! Oh Blowjobgate! I’ll take a budget surplus and Dump cheating on Melanie with a revolving door of porn stars.
Kay
The Biden supporters here- and there are a lot of them in the local Party- seem to want a “normal” President. Now to some that is read as “white man” and maybe it is, but they thought Obama was “normal” and they all voted for him, so I don’t think that’s what it is. I think they just want to have a President who is NOT loud and divisive and negative and who doesn’t surround himself with crazy people. I am sympathetic to that. I can see that. They want the President who cheers on the woman’s soccer team instead of picking a fight with them. Because that’s a banal, unifying thing, right? “How great is that soccer team!”
They just don’t want to fight all the time. They know Biden would be meeting with world leaders and greeting people and things and trying to get some shit passed and he would hire acceptable and experienced people and it would be fairly boring, for long stretches anyway, and they want that. Back.
sigyn
@Martin: They were all so thrilled when the Supreme Court decided “money is speech”. So…put it out there then. No more of this whispering in the dark.
Anne Laurie
@Omnes Omnibus:
Well, they genuinely seem to like each other, even though they’re both fighting for top spot right now. I can totally see Warren being willing to play Biden to Harris’ Obama, and Harris is not gonna turn down the chance to be the ‘next in line’ if she can’t be this cycle’s candidate.
I don’t see Harris accepting the undercard with Biden, for reasons. And right now she’s polling way higher than any of the other (serious) candidates, so that’s not a question.
As for the other individual currently doing well with low-info voters… Yeah, if he were to offer any mere woman his blessing, it’d be Tulsi (and then grudgingly, probably at the direct instruction of some genius like Jeff Weaver). Nor do I see Harris accepting such an offer, not even if she had a guarantee he’d drop dead by February 2021.
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
@Martin:
The way I look at it, is if you graduated and started a career before the Reagan Recession, you are a Boomer,
If you graduated into a world of massive unemployment, sky high interest rates and social services being slashed, you are GenX.
James E Powell
@Amir Khalid:
Agree mostly, but rather than “getting traction” I’d say “being talked about favorably in the press/media.” The largest source of support at this point is familiarity. The second largest is “who have I heard good things about lately.”
I don’t think voters’ preferences are driving the changes in the polls. I think the press/media coverage is and that most of the candidates are largely unknown.
Salty Sam
@Suzanne:
I have chuckled until my sides ache…
lamh36
Maggie Haberman…should have just sat and ate her food, instead of trying to play Miss Ann to Joy Reid. All these other GOPers and journos crying outrage, have just amplified the list for even more people to see…what are ya’ll scared of exactly? Maybe seeing your name?
ola azul
@Kay:
Got no doubt plenty a risk-averse exhausted Dem folks may *want* a return to “normalcy,” and many see Biden as capable of delivering that. But wait, wut? How? I mean, really — fucking HOW?
I would ask: What makes these folks think things’re gonna return to normal anytime soon, even, or perhaps especially, if Biden takes the presidency? Assumes facts not in evidence.
Some of the worst peeps in the world have been unleashed into the political bloodstream, and they ain’t just gonna go away cuz doddering Uncle Joe thinks he can pull off what Obama could not just cuz Joe’s white. (That’s his ridiculous argument for his presidential bid, best as I can divine it.)
The bitter, crosspartisan fights, I suspect, are only just getting started, and it’d be very helpful if Joe would flame out very, very fucking soon so that he can stop deluding folks with that particularly damaging “wouldn’t-it-be-pretty-to-think-so?” fairy tale that helps the frightened sleep at night.
The political bed’s been shit, and Joe ain’t gonna be unshitting it with help from his very dear friends across the aisle. The notion is preposterous on its face. Biden fundamentally don’t understand, imo, that Trump ain’t an aberration from the Republican norm, Trump is the manifestation, the culmination of who and what Republicans are in our present day. The problem ain’t just Trump, it’sa Republican Party willing to aid, abet and use Trump cuz it values party over country. Joe misapprends the age in which he lives, as he ever and always does, and so his prescriptions are misguided, but comforting to a certain segment of the electorate.
Biden (along with Wilmer) are the two Dem candidates, contra the polls, Trump is most likely capable of beating, imo.
Cannot implode soon enough.
PJ
@Martin: Do you have a citation for the notion that young people support young (or younger) candidates over older ones? Because it certainly wasn’t true in 2016, and, while this is completely anecdotal, I’ve never heard anyone under 40 say they wouldn’t vote for someone because they were too old.
Ruckus
@Anne Laurie:
My new leaning is Harris/Beto. I like her no nonsense attitude and that she gets why a lot of people are angry, because there are different reasons for different people. And she has experience in running a somewhat large agency. And Beto saying WTF to the press, that’s worth putting him in the job all by itself.
I really like Warren and like that she seems to really understand the legislative needs of the country, even for the people that hate her and would never vote for her (or any dems…) but I see her strongest position would be in the senate and as leader.
Biden is a has been. He’s not a horrible guy at all, but his congressional history doesn’t give me anything. And he’s old. Way too old. He makes a big deal about being VP, but what did he do with the office? Not that there is a lot to do with it but I can’t remember anything with his name on it.
Ruckus
@Amir Khalid:
Do I need to change my name to Rude Ruckus for fucks sake?
PJ
@Anne Laurie: No way will Warren accept a VP position – what would she get out of it? She’s not going to be running for President in 8 years, and she can do a lot more as a Senator than a VP.
Suzanne
@Omnes Omnibus:
That’s apparently what I have to look forward to (starting in October).
Yay.
He’s already so pleasant. Looking forward to a storm of hormones on top of it all.
Cacti
@joel hanes:
I think her performance thus far has been uneven. The bounce she got from her first debate has evaporated and she’s back to around where she started.
Omnes Omnibus
@Anne Laurie: And I don’t see why someone would give up a seat in the Senate for a shot at the vice presidency. I am clearly out of step with a lot of people here because I keep seeing the pairing of Harris and Warren in some order as a dream ticket and it makes no sense to me. If one of them wins the nomination, I think that the other should stay in the Senate. Or we could just raid the Senate for every up and coming Democrat we can find. There are talented people who are not in Congress who can be tapped for the VP spot and, if things go right, the Cabinet. Let’s use them.
Omnes Omnibus
@Suzanne: FWIW I was trying to convey that you and your family have company.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jay: I am older than Kurt Cobain would be but younger than Courtney Love.
misterpuff
@lamh36: We are Democrats Maggie, we are not going to use 2nd amendment approaches, although we might kill their business. That information is public. They signed the check.
Kineslaw
@Martin: Young people often are more willing to support an older candidate than old people. Older people understand what it means to be 70 in a way a 20-something can’t.
The other factor to keep in mind with Warren is she was in the classroom until 2011. She might be 71, but much of her professional life required her to relate to and understand people in their twenties. Also young voters have come of age in unstable times. I’m not worried about her getting young people excited and wanting to vote for Big Structural Change.
Anne Laurie
@PJ:
The satisfaction of serving her country, if she calculated her participation as the best way to get a Democrat into the White House.
From my angle, she hardly seems wedded to the idea of being President — I agree she’ll be just as happy, and possibly more effective, staying in the Senate. But think about her tenure at the CFPB… she fought hard to be the first head, but when President Obama decided ‘it couldn’t be done’, she worked hard to make her replacement do the best job possible.
Anne Laurie
@Omnes Omnibus:
True enough. As I just said to someone else, if that’s how Warren perceives the situation, she’ll make the choice you put forward.
Anne Laurie
@Kineslaw:
There’s a lot of people who’ve said she was a really effective law professor.
I’ve also heard her joke — I don’t know if she uses this outside Eastern Massachusetts — that learning to deal with the giant ‘minds’ & egos of Harvard Law faculty was *excellent* training for the Senate!
Sister Golden Bear
@Omnes Omnibus: That actually makes perfect sense since testosterone reduces the effects of estrogen would mimick the efforts of menopause, while the drastic increase in testosterone levels is akin to what happens to cisgender boys.
For trans women, going on hormones is generally slow and subtle physically, but it can be a full-throttle teenage girl emotional rollercoaster* for some of us. For myself the emotional changes were noticeable by generally not pronounced. More of an occasional “wow, I’ve never felt that before,” such as the first time I did the happy/sad cry.
*Although interestingly a friend of mine was an egg surrogate and was pumped full of estrogen as part of that. She said she felt like an emotionally out-of-control teenager again.
Omnes Omnibus
@Sister Golden Bear:
Yeah, it made sense to me as well – well, at least after my colleague saw the the WTF? look in my face and realized she hadn’t told me about the kid. Once she said he was transitioning, the light went on.
I’ll tell you what though, this is a brave kid because he is doing this in a rural area of WI in what was Paul Ryan’s district. And he was born and grew up there, so this is all out in public.
Uncle Cosmo
@trollhattan:
I got an e-mail a few months back from an old friend saying he was throwing his support to Beto. The friend’s name? Martin O’Malley.
Now before you double over with laughter thinking O Yeah, the Electoral Kiss of Death!, bear with me.
MOM beat the GOP incumbent for the Governorship of MD in 2006. He beat him even worse in the 2010 rematch. Prior to 2016 he had not lost an election since his first, for MD State Senate in 1990 – and that by 43 (or maybe 44, I forget) votes to a 4-term incumbent. In MD he’s almost legendary for his electoral prowess. So it was a yoooooooge shock to me (& probably a lot of other Marylanders) when he not only lost in the IA caucuses, not only lost badly, but was utterly humiliated. (IIRC he got one convention delegate. Maybe none, again I’m not sure.)
Now I have no idea who had the key roles in his national campaign. But it is plausible to me that when O’Malley decided to run for President, he reached out to some operatives who had (or claimed to have) the ability & experience to run a national campaign, something he (& the folks who ran his local & state campaigns) lacked. And it is plausible to me that MOM met Beto & decided to support him through (some of) those same people, who are working in the O’Rourke campaign. And it is plausible to me that those same people are dong the same “bang-up job” for Beto they did for MOM four years ago.