It's not that complicated, folks. Biden's gonna lose the nomination if and when Democrats become convinced that he can't beat Trump, or become convinced that someone else can. Otherwise he's likely to be pretty resilient.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 9, 2019
If @JoeBiden’s campaign was smart they’d have @joelpollak get in his grill every day until November 2020. Brings out Biden’s feisty side. https://t.co/qClHjy6mNa
— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) August 8, 2019
(Breitbart needs the attention: apparently their audience has fallen by 72% since the Oval Office Occupant moved in.)
For the record, I don’t think Biden is suffering from the same kind of accelerating neurological deterioration as the Squatter-in-Chief. He’s gotten older since his last presidential campaign, and he gets tired sooner, but he’s been notorious for getting distracted and tripping over his tongue since his first campaign. It’s baked in to his public persona to the point where it’s perceived as vaguely endearing — a fixed eccentricity among the usual political chimeras. He’s still the top-polling Democratic candidate by a wide margin, and he’ll go on being the top-polling candidate… until someone else takes it away from him.
Which I’m pretty sure will happen, between now and next June! But were I giving my preferred candidates advice, I’d say don’t bother trying to undercut Joe — build on your own strengths, and let him have his own ‘clean and articulate’ moment.
Oops: Biden says “we choose truth over facts” pic.twitter.com/bkohPsOmJC
— Natasha Korecki (@natashakorecki) August 8, 2019
— Parker Molloy (@ParkerMolloy) August 9, 2019
He's been like this for 40 years. I remember him joking in the 90s how his gaffes meant he'd never be president. https://t.co/JaHIt20j7C
— Let the hogs win (@agraybee) August 9, 2019
UPDATE cont.: “It’s no coincidence this comes days after Joe Biden laid out how this president emboldens white nationalism and embraces racism” said Kate Bedingfield, Biden’s deputy campaign managerhttps://t.co/LFWwbaOHm9
— Emma Kinery (@EmmaKinery) August 9, 2019
And honestly, if you actually watch a few minutes of his campaign events, it becomes clear the gaffes are brief moments while his effortless rapport with the audience takes up most of the time.
— Let the hogs win (@agraybee) August 9, 2019
I’ve always admired John Quincy Adams for going into the Senate House after his term in the Oval Office. And I half-believe that Joe Biden’s next public service will be as Vice-President to another younger, glass-ceiling-shattering Democrat…
VP Biden has been in the audience at the Wing Ding all night listening to other candidates. The seats around him are also reserved for candidates but they’re not sitting in them. Here he is clapping after Sen. Sanders’s speech. pic.twitter.com/wOnmPAJNRl
— Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) August 10, 2019
Adam L Silverman
Joel Pollack, President of the Los Angeles chapter of Jews for Racists and anti-Semites, LLC.
?BillinGlendaleCA
Um, the House; he died just off the House floor.
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: So he died houseless?
Anne Laurie
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Whoops, thanks! (Been a loooong week… )
Brachiator
Well, I guess that covers all the possibilities.
lamh36
My problem with the entire thing was the nubmer of Dem folks posting the clip that Trump Oppo research guy was pushing, without attributing it to Chumps guy.
All because they don’t want Biden as the nominee…smh. When you pointed it out to folks they got defensive. Like i told those folks, Kamala is my candidate but I’ll be darned if I’m gonna HELP Chump folks spread their clips of another candidate just cause that candidate was not my own.
lamh36
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: After he died he was.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Adam L Silverman
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: From my cold dead hands!
Brachiator
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
Just the displays?
jl
@Brachiator: We Warren supporters analyze and have a plan for everything. Deal with it.
( I think AL is supporting Warren right now. If not, I guess I’ll get chewed out in the comments, but what the heck. Life’s a gamble)
Adam L Silverman
@Brachiator: Yep, they’ll still sell the games and the gaming systems, consoles, and peripherals.
Major Major Major Major
My laptop went and screwed itself up, so I’m restoring it from yesterday morning’s backup. It’ll take all night! How annoying and slightly scary.
Adam L Silverman
@jl: I’d like a banana split with extra hot fudge. Do you have a plan for that?
lamh36
I swear I give much leeway to grieving folks…but what the hell did he expect exactly. 3 other folks at that hospital refused to meet w/Chump but he decided to drag that poor baby back to the damn hospital for Chump.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: You know what you did!
Mary G
I’m not a huge Uncle Joe fan, but he’s doing the right thing by running against Trump instead of quibbling over whose Medicare-for-all plan is the purest. And his sitting in the audience for the other candidaytes makes me think he’ll work his heart out for the nominee, if it’s not him, instead of sulking, refusing to concede, and letting his supporters act like Bernie Bros. and Sisters.
jl
@Adam L Silverman: ” I’d like a banana split with extra hot fudge. Do you have a plan for that? ”
Yes. Too close to dinner time. Spoil your appetite. You don’t like it, get off my back and complain to Baud 2020! about it.
Ruckus
This Joe Biden. Nothing new, nothing old here.
This is Joe. He is a political gaffe machine. He’s been known for this for decades. As dad used to say “Put brain in gear, then speak.” Joe has this backwards.
And I’ll say this, I like Joe, because he’s a likable guy. He leans left, which is the minimum requirement for me to vote for him. But he thinks the world is still workable, in a political two sides to the aisle concept. And it hasn’t been for a good portion of his political life. It might have been in congress at one time but out in the real world it hasn’t been for a long time. He’s a candidate in name only. Just like the last two times he ran. With the presidential coat tail exception. Once we get into it and he continues to open his mouth and be Joe, the name recognition will not be enough. For me it already isn’t enough. Yeah sure, elect any dem over any shithead but still Joe Biden? It isn’t just that we’ve had enough Joe, we can do better, we have the candidates.
CarolPW
@lamh36: If that poor kid doesn’t get blown away by some asshat that thinks he is a Mexican and doesn’t belong here, in his tweens or earlier he is going to go down the media rabbit hole figuring out what happened to his parents. It’s not going to be good. This is all terrible.
Ruckus
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I thought he had a small bedroom all to himself, after. Dark, quiet, sort of earthy smell……
Richard Guhl
Joe Biden has struggled with stuttering all his life.
Adam L Silverman
@jl: It’s 10:56 PM EDT. I’ve already worked out and eaten. Fortunately, since you don’t seem to have a plan and don’t appear to have much strategic insight into planning, I stopped and got a Blizzard on the way home.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Ruckus: True, he’s actually had two.
jl
@Adam L Silverman: You want plans? Plans?
You damn kid, get off my lawn! How’s that for a plan?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: Somebody didn’t have his Ovaltine this morning.
Adam L Silverman
@jl: That is not a plan. That is a statement. A plan would delineate the ways and means you intend to employ to achieve the end state of moving me off of your lawn.//
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I had my usual breakfast protein and frozen fruit smoothie.
I’m actually having one right now, which will, in a little bit, be followed by the Blizzard because jl didn’t have a plan to get me a banana split with extra hot fudge.
Cacti
For all of the alleged brain power among the progressive candidates, they’re all competing against each other for the same slice of the vote and ceding the rest of the field to Biden.
Which is really stupid.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: The comment was directed at jl and his surly comment directed at you.
ETA: Those folk from from Pixley sure are rude.
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Okay, now I’m tracking.
Regardless, I still had a protein and frozen fruit smoothie for breakfast. Just like almost every day.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: Hmmm, sounds boring. I had bacon and eggs with cheddar.
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I’m on a very controlled diet. I saw the bacon for when I’m either traveling or going to a brunch buffet. Then I eat my bodyweight!
HinTN
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I’ve had French toast with bacon on the side two days in a row on this here vacation. It’s all well and good but my usual yogurt with granola and fruit is really more my style. IOW, I’m with Adam on this.
HinTN
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
See!
Kay
So good:
jl
@Adam L Silverman: ” Then I eat my bodyweight! ”
Sometimes, the best plan is “No”.
2liberal
@Major Major Major Major:
that’s what you get for playing psychonauts! (which i just bought and am playing via steam based on your recommendation)
Adam L Silverman
@HinTN: That should be save.
Adam L Silverman
@jl: It’s hyperbole.
Are you okay tonight?
Bobby Thomson
It’s not endearing. At all.
Not fatal in the Senate but terrible in the presidency.
TS (the original)
Old white men have done so well by the people of the world – and still they elect them. We are our own enemies and helping to destroy our world. When I read a headline like this
I weep tears of unbelievable sadness
HinTN
@Adam L Silverman: I almost used [save] but would then have been backed into the //pedant corner.
Mowgli
@Kay:
The phrase “the banality of evil” seems to apply here.
kindness
Ya know, I love Uncle Joe. But I won’t vote for him. He did a good job in the Senate. But he still thinks there is comity. Ever since Reagan certain Democrats have been taken advantage of by Republicans. They always obeyed the unwritten rules and Republicans never did. Democrats have repeatedly been shown to be chumps. Joe thinks that’s normal. Don’t be a Joe.
When we take over we need to get rid of the filibuster to actually wield power.
Duane
@Adam L Silverman: I want to thank you for teaching me what little I know about tactics, strategy and having a plan. Came in useful in my personal life recently. So far so good.
The things you learn at Balloon Juice.
Ruckus
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Wanna bet that to him they both seemed exactly the same?
cokane
hard to even see how these semi-gaffes can be costly, considering trump plowed right past all of his. and as @agraybee notes, in context, the gaffes arent actually so bad, just due to his propensity to speak all the time and to everybody. people who think quoting them out of context on twitter all day is going to sink him are going to be disappointed.
I do think Silver is missing the dynamic of a primary race. Likely almost everyone drops out after Iowa, save 2-4 candidates. Then the race shifts radically, and Biden’s biggest advantage, name rec and sense of being Obama’s heir arent as big of advantages. Whoever survives Iowa alongside him will certainly have a shot, and might very well immediately poll ahead of him in a 2 or 3 candidate race.
cokane
@kindness: at the end of the day, Democrats will have to work with Republicans at some point. I dunno why people think some unitary government is possible. 60 Senate seats is not on the table, even getting 50 or 51 is a longshot.
It’s actually entrenched folks on here who don’t get it, and Biden who does. Without some Republican support, there will be absolutely zero policy gains in a more progressive direction, even if the Dems win the presidency and Senate majority. And there still are some things on the table, such as resurrecting some neutered aspects of the Affordable Care Act. I’m all for this take-no-prisoners attitude during election season. But once the election is over … I’m sorry folks, I know some of you prefer to emote on this … Democrats are going to have to govern alongside Republicans.
Adam L Silverman
@Duane: You’re quite welcome. I highly recommend my friend and former colleague’s primer!
https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=641
NotMax
?BillinGlendaleCA
@cokane:
That assumes that Republicans will be somewhat cooperative, they certainly weren’t in 2009-2010.
PJ
@cokane: Anyone who thinks what anyone says about anyone or anything on Twitter is going to make any difference in the race are deluded. The majority of voters don’t use it and are probably better off for it.
And obviously, the top 3 candidates who remain after Iowa and New Hampshire will have a good shot. I am putting my money into Warren’s campaign, but I would bet Biden will still be among the top 3 then. Part of the problem with journalists discounting him is that they can’t imagine voting for him, but there are many Americans who want someone they know will be a decent human being in the White House and who will not be shaken by Trump, the GOP machine, or the media’s bias against liberals, and Biden is a sure bet for that.
BlueDWarrior
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I interpret it as not having the distribution, atm, to render Republicans politically impotent. So barring that, you will have to account for them in your legislative plans at some point.
And this goes back to the genesis of the asymmetry between the parties writ large: Democrats want a functioning federal government in all respects, Republicans mostly don’t.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@BlueDWarrior: It takes two to tango.
Philbert
@cokane: Agreed, unless the Dems win and 50 in the Senate, in which case: FUCKEM!
LanceThruster
Tonight Bill Maher was making excuses for Biden and Harris, dissing Bernie, and fluffing Warren.
Karen
Why do I fear that Biden may end up being the candidate. He’s racist. He says poor kids are as bright as white kids. And I’m not going to even go into the busing. He can’t be the best we have.
Why can’t the Dems have ads about tariffs and the effect on the economy?
frosty
@Kay: Thanks for that link Kay. It’s a good explanation of how the whole photo op made me feel.
James E Powell
@cokane:
What Biden is missing is that we first have to win the election and we are not going to win an election by stressing how much we are going to cozy up to Republicans. The people we oppose are evil. The things they are doing are evil. Let them talk about working with us.
Chris Johnson
@cokane: Key republicans are literal traitors, siding with Russia and being tracked down more and more openly by the nation’s intelligence services.
You’re off the map. Forget this stuff about working with Republicans. We are as likely to see them gunning us down in the streets in desperate bids to maintain a completely unwarranted and unjustified power (and be careful if you’re about to cry hyperbole, here).
Chief Oshkosh
@Kay: The cherry on top is that Melania’s office released that photo. They CHOSE to release THAT photo. Sick fucks. And every asshole who looks at that and then thinks “Yeah, see? Trump cares! He’s not racist” Those people? They’re sick fucks, too.
Chief Oshkosh
@cokane: You might consider that you’re missing the point. Or, a point. The Republicans have a long and successful history of delivering for their base, even when they are not in power. How does that happen? Well, maybe like Adam, they understand strategy and tactics and they are not afraid to execute (pun, sadly, intended).
I can’t speak for others, of course, but when I “emote” on this, it comes from a desire for Democrats to do the same. We are long, long past the usefulness of pretending that true bipartisanship is possible. The Democrats should plan and execute accordingly.
Eric Lindholm
Today, Joe Biden said he met with the Parkland survivors while he was Vice President. Furthermore, he did so while cowardly members of Congress were turning them away. Because that’s the kind of great VP he was.
Joe Biden: the man, the legend, the time-traveler.
Panurge
@Eric Lindholm:
Meanwhile, Trump is President.