Fresh poll of likely caucus-goers in Iowa has good news for Senator Warren’s campaign:
So, instead of Warren and Sanders duking it out for the lefty vote, it looks like Biden and Sanders are having the Battle of the Retreads.
Excerpt from an article in Iowa Starting Line:
Elizabeth Warren’s early investment in Iowa is paying off…
The horserace numbers reflect a shake-up that those of us on the ground in Iowa have been seeing for a while…
The other good news for Warren is that her support appears to be very broad in the party. She leads every age demographic (even surpassing Biden in the oldest age bracket, 31% to 28%) except for the youngest. Sanders has a 14-point lead here among the 18-34 range with 34%.
The article also notes that Senator Harris is going all-in on the Iowa caucus now, which seems to be the smart play. That’s a fairly recent development, according to ISL. We’ll see how the numbers shake out down the road.
All absolutely bereft of meaning at this stage, of course! Open thread!
Joe Falco
Meaningless but gives me hope that Warren will continue to go up and up in polls.
Elizabelle
I have always thought Biden is in there to take Bernie out. Whether that was his intent or not. Carry on, Trans Am Joe.
This nomination belongs to Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris. Both excellent choices.
NotMax
Surely an argument for raising the voting age to 35.
:)
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Elizabelle: QFT
Tom Levenson
Go SPW!
Tom Levenson
@NotMax: Indeed.
debit
@Elizabelle: 100 percent agreement here. My personal preference leans to Harris, but I would be thrilled with Warren too.
Elizabelle
@debit: I want them both! On the same ticket. East Coast and West Coast and smart and fighting for us.
NotMax
@Elizabelle
Color me skeptical but I don’t think a wide swath of America would go for an all female ticket. Just to be clear, I have no qualms about it.
MattF
Personally, I favor Harris— but I think Warren would be a fine candidate. Either of them would look great compared to Trump. Specifically, if Trump tries to bully either of them, (and I’m sure he’d try) it would be a massacre.
Elizabelle
Elizabeth Warren connects with people. So does Kamala Harris.
We have a country to heal, and need someone with brains, guts, and expertise. Who can see the long game.
There are too many deplorables, but Trump is beatable. He is the worst president in U.S. history. Surpasses Buchanan (who was a victim to forces in place for decades; it takes years to build the stupid.)
West of the Rockies
How is the dreadful Tulsi so high up? She’s sort of our party’s version of, what, Santorum or Buchanan (a clueless knucklehead).
Elizabelle
@NotMax:
Yes. And a woman was “supposed to” be elected before a person of color.
Not doubting there is lots of misogyny out there. We just have to turn out our voters, and make sure their votes are securely cast and counted.
patrick II
@<a
There is the opinion that if Warren or Harris win the nomination it would be wise to balance the ticket with a male. The most likely reason Beto is still in the race. But both Warren and Harris are such exceptional people I would like to seel the two women run. Seeing either of them debate Pence would be worth it.
Betty Cracker
@West of the Rockies: I agree Gabbard shouldn’t even be polling at 2% since she’s a weak-minded kook, but I wouldn’t call that high up.
ETA: I saw an elderly gent with a Gabbard campaign shirt the other day at the supermarket. It surprised me since I live in Deploraville!
MattF
@West of the Rockies: She’s got the troll demographic. Use your internal pie filter.
Chyron HR
It’s shameful how a plurality of Iowa voters are colluding to rig the primary against Bernie. Truly it is in sadness and not anger that he wants to destroy the human race for denying him.
dmsilev
@West of the Rockies: 2% is a tiny amount of support. There are enough idiots and trolls out there that I can imagine her getting that much without trouble. I don’t think she’s qualified for the next debate (and the cutoff point for getting enough support is only a week or so off), so that will cut her visibility a fair amount.
Nicole
@NotMax:
That was my initial thought, but I read something somewhere (here, for all I remember) that said an all woman ticket is not necessarily a negative because there are men who have a knee-jerk reaction to the idea of a woman being a man’s immediate boss (woman President over a male VP). Who knows, misogyny is an insidious and complicated evil.
I do think an all-white ticket would be a mistake. The Democrats need to stop attempting to lure the white vote and focus on turning out their own base.
Kylroy
@West of the Rockies: Not even Santorum or Buchanan. GOP equivalent would be a libertarian so far outside the party’s mainstream he adopts some Dem policies – Bill Richardson, maybe?
dmsilev
@Chyron HR: 83% of likely Iowa voters are members of the DNC Establishment.
low-tech cyclist
A few thoughts about this poll and this pollster:
1) Change Research has a C+ rating at 538. 538 is rather liberal in handing out gentleman’s C’s to crappy pollsters.
2) If you look at all of Change Research’s recent Dem nomination polls at 538, you’ll notice that Warren’s doing way better in Change Research polls than in anyone else’s.
3) Between (1) and (2), as a total Warren fan boy, today’s Change Research polls peg my too-good-to-be-true-ometer. Damn thing’s buzzing so loud, I can’t get any work done. I’d like to believe Warren’s doing that well, but while she may be doing well, I know she isn’t running well ahead of the pack in Iowa and Wisconsin. It just ain’t happening. Maybe later, but not yet.
chris
Strap in. ODNI changes hands today.
jl
We’ve seen big swings in polls several times, and this could be an outlier, so it doesn’t mean much, but it does mean something.
There are three types of Democratic presidential candidates, so far: those that are stuck at 1 or 2 percent, those that have seen big swings in support, and one who has seen a steady increase in support (Warren).
If other polls replicate these results, then that is very good news. As voters see what a great president Warren would be, support grows and doesn’t go back.
@low-tech cyclist: thanks for info on this poll. Results might mean more if Warren has taken a big jump in this poll, assuming their bias in terms of levels is constant. So, may still be good news, even adjusting for the quality of the poll, at least in measuring level of support.
SFAW
@dmsilev:
For a moment, I wondered why you picked that number.
Nice one.
NotMax
@Elizabelle
May as well get it out in the open. Similar to why Wilmer (who won’t be the candidate, consider it a hypothetical) would be hobbled from the get-go. Although they may not voice it out loud, there’s a swath who would balk at voting for a Jew.
Still hold that Lieberman motivated enough people to not vote for the ticket to negatively impact Gore.
@West of the Rockies
She’s mostly terrible and has no business running, but comparing her to Santorum is hitting below the belt.
cmorenc
Heard Sen. Harris say yesterday on CNN that as President, she would deal with the deadlock in Congress about gun control legislation via an executive order requiring background checks. While I agree with her on the importance of that as a public safety policy goal, IMHO proclaiming the executive order approach during the campaign will set herself up for negative campaign ads by the GOP that will likely unfortunately resonate with a significant part of the electorate outside the GOP base who are otherwise supportive of background-check legislation. Her suggested executive order maneuver is something far better attempted *after* she’s President and the GOP is still furiously trying to block any sort of truly effective legislation, and *not* as a campaign ploy to attract a larger share of support in the primaries/caucuses from the D base.
Our NUMBER ONE OBJECTIVE is to nominate a candidate who can beat Donald Trump – we don’t need more unforced campaign errors (see also, e.g. Warren’s advocacy for doing away with private health insurance) which may be good progressive policy but terrible campaign strategy bc it tends to repel a portion of voters who would otherwise be inclined to vote D.
Eolirin
A Warren/Harris or Harris/Warren ticket would preclude an AG Harris or SEC head or Senate majority leader Warren.
Neither of them should be made VP. Their talents are better served elsewhere.
Elizabelle
@Eolirin: But if it’s what it takes to win the White House, that is immeasurable.
White House first, and then pick the Cabinet.
SiubhanDuinne
@Kylroy:
Bill Richardson has been a Democrat for most of his political career, although as a young man he worked for a GOP Congressman and was in the State Department during the Nixon administration.
I’ve never thought of him as a far-out libertarian. Never.
Baud
@NotMax:
Right. So disappointing.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Seems perfectly consistent to me.
Eolirin
@Elizabelle: I don’t really think the VP pick is gonna be that big a deal if either of them is the presidental nominee. Putting Beto or Buttigieg in the VP slot seems like a better play to me if you’re going to pick from the other candidates. Or Castro.
SiubhanDuinne
@SFAW:
Check your math ?
artem1s
No matter what the polls say, I hope the delegates have been well coached to deal with what ever bullshit the Sandernista’s decide to pull during the caucus. Given their level of frustration at being ‘robbed’ of the nomination last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to go full metal Chicago Democratic Convention. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were even more threatening and disruptive than they were in 2016.
Kent
@cmorenc:
You think advocating background checks for gun purchases is an unforced error? Universal background checks polls at over 90% Find me another major policy proposal of any kind that has this level of near universal support. Sheesh. Honesly most swing voter types don’t even know the difference between a statute and executive order.
In any event this election is going to create the biggest fucking right-wing hurricane of feces we have ever seen no matter who the Dem candidate is and no matter what their positions are. You think the GOP gives the slightest shit about whether their upcoming character assassination attacks are grounded in reality? Look at Trump for fuck’s sake. We are way way past reality-based campaigning.
Honestly I don’t think it really matters much what the Dem policy positions actually are. What will matter is having a candidate with the media savvy and charisma to push through all the slime and get people inspired. I think both Warren and Harris have that. I don’t think Sanders or Biden do. They are both too old and slow to keep up with Trump and his stormtroopers.
germy
https://dailygazette.com/article/2019/08/15/ge-shares-fall-after-report-claims-38b-in-accounting-fraud
jl
I’m not going to worry wort too much about candidates supposed gaffes, many of which are just minor flubs that mean nothing but social media trolls try to blow up into something for electioneering purposes, or the corporate media push and flack for ratings, and desire to fill a lot of air time at minimum cost. Also not going to worry about being perceived as being too old, or being a woman or Jewish.
Remember that FDR was elected despite having a serious physical handicap, and had problems with somewhat inconsistent policy stances, since he wanted to help people in ways that demanded more government spending, but also campaign as ‘responsible’ fiscally, and promised he would balance the budget. GOP tried to use both as attacks during FDR;s first presidential campaign.
If a good candidate stands behind policies that voters think are needed to move the country and improve their lives, and candidate shows commitment and can explain things well, they can get elected.
Baud
@germy:
Fascinating.
Kay
Oh, I’m pleased. She works so hard! She should be rewarded :)
Also, I don’t care what anyone says- Buttigieg is very talented and Democrats are lucky to have him. If he was a Republican he’d already have his own show on Fox. Fourth for the mayor of South Bend who no one ever heard of a year ago is something.
NotMax
@germy
$35 billion here, $35 billion there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.
:)
SFAW
@SiubhanDuinne:
OK, you can check it for me, see if I came up with the correct figure:
Bernie voters = 17 percent
Total voters = Bernie voters + non-Bernie voters (a/k/a “DNC Establishment”) = 100 percent
Therefore: Non-Berners/DNC Establishment = 100 – 17 = 83
Citizen Alan
@patrick II:
My biggest objection to either Warren or Harris serving as Veep to the other is that neither Massachusetts nor California is going for Trump. I strongly believe that the most important job for a VP nominee is to be able to bring in electoral college votes. As I’ve said many times, I think Gore would have won easily if he’d picked Ben Nelson over Holy Joe. That’s also why I’m glad Beto is hanging on.
HalfAssedHomesteader
@Betty Cracker: Well, she’s got that glistening cleavage. That has a long half-life on some men.
Yutsano
@SFAW: You forgot the Tulsi numbers. She’s gonna get robbed too!
jl
@Baud: Baud 2020! campaign has a more fraud and malfeasance than that, just can’t get much above the ten or twenty buck range, even when you put them all together. Sad.
MattF
OT. I know that Rick Wilson departs materially from the concept of an impartial commenter, but… here, Mr. Scaramucci gets the treatment:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/08/15/anthony-scaramucci-is-how-you-got-trump/
germy
@NotMax: Markopolos is the guy who blew the whistle on Madoff. So he knows about fraud.
(He knows a thing or two because he’s seen a thing or two.)
Baud
@jl:
You saying financing my campaign with credit default swaps was unwise?
Citizen Alan
@Eolirin:
Honestly, I’d kinda like to see Supreme Court Justice Kamala Harris. It would be nice to see a black person on the Court who wasn’t self-loathing about skin color to the point of madness.
justawriter
Just 172 days until the first vote in Iowa is cast.
low-tech cyclist
@jl:
Apparently they have polled Iowa once before, but it was all the way back in May (can’t find the results), so it would be hard to compare – we already know her support has greatly increased since then, and that’s about all it would tell us.
SFAW
@Yutsano:
Her percentage is within the margin of error, therefore not counted.
germy
@MattF: Rick Wilson is how you get Trump. He’s the guy with the broom at the curling tournament.
randy khan
To put these numbers in terms of delegates (which doesn’t work quite as cleanly in the caucuses as it does in a primary, but we’ll just make believe), here’s what those poll results would translate to out of the 41 pledged delegates available in Iowa:
Warren 19
Biden 11
Sanders 11
Everybody else: 0
Now, some delegates are awarded on a district basis and some are awarded statewide, so there could be variation from these numbers, but you get the idea. It actually is pretty hard to get any meaningful number of delegates unless you finish in the top 3.
Steve in the ATL
@germy: I can’t wait for the class action lawyers handling the fraud claims to make millions while I and my fellow shareholders each get a coupon for $1 off a pack of GE light bulbs.
MattF
@germy: Point taken.
feebog
I am firmly behind Harris at this point. My problem with Warren is that she let Trump completely flummox her over the Native American heritage issue. This should have been a blip on the radar screen, but Warren’s missteps in addressing the issue blew it completely out of proportion. I also think Harris matches up better than Warren on the debate stage with Trump. If Warren wins the nomination I will enthusiastically support her, I just think Harris is the better choice at this point.
Steve in the ATL
@Baud: you would have been fine with collateralized mortgage-backed securities
zhena gogolia
@feebog:
I’m with you. I’m disappointed Harris doesn’t have more momentum.
NotMax
@jl
The degree of which was not generally known by the public and by gentlemen’s agreement not reported by the day’s MSM. FDR himself sought to squelch questioning of how much he was disabled when he was filmed ‘walking’ to and standing at the lectern to nominate Al Smith in ’28 (the Happy Warrior speech). This continued while he was in office – there is but a single photo of him in a wheelchair while president.
West of the Rockies
@dmsilev:
When I say “so high up” I mean not in % points, but being preferred to the remaining candidates. Hell, I’d think Hickenlooper or Inslee would be more highly regarded.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Steve in the ATL: Obviously you went into the wrong kind of lawyering.
germy
@Steve in the ATL: I remember when florescent bulbs first became a thing. I bought an expensive pack of GE bulbs, expecting them to last a long time. They all burned out after less than a year.
GE is a brand I try to avoid nowadays.
SFAW
@feebog:
No kidding. I must hear about that AT LEAST 15-40 times per day. Clearly a disqualifier far worse than not being sure if you wanted to have a beer with her.
MattF
@Steve in the ATL: And there’s the ‘BaudBucks’ cryptocurrency.
SFAW
@Steve in the ATL:
Oh, bullshit.
Tulips are the way to go.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
Me too. Not because I’m sold on her but because I prefer to have more than just Warren challenging Bernie and Biden.
TenguPhule
Oh shit.
Steve in the ATL
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I am reminded of that every day I wake up in Beaumont, Texas or Eutaw, Alabama, or Mishawaka, Indiana….
@germy: I don’t buy their light bulbs, but I do buy most of my turbines, locomotives, and mining software from them.
Major Major Major Major
@MattF:
Yep. Gabbard is a pretty out-there backbencher who’s getting a huge blast of free propaganda from Russia, 4chan, Matt Taibbi, and the Intercept crowd, but I repeat myself.
TenguPhule
@SFAW:
Weak. Tiger-repelling rocks are the in thing now. //
geg6
@Nicole:
I keep seeing people say this here, but so far, the numbers do not match this hot take. Last polling I saw broken down by race/ethnicity showed three white people as the top tier among black voters. I’ll vote for Harris or Booker or Castro, and happily, but I’m not so sure my black neighbors will agree with me. They seem to prefer Biden, Warren and Wilmer so far. This could change, but I am quite hesitant to ascribe any motivations to a group of people to which I do not belong. I’ll take their word for what they prefer.
TenguPhule
@West of the Rockies:
Noun, Verb, I served in the National Guard.
SFAW
@TenguPhule:
Screw that. I plant radishes to keep away the wolverines. Works like a charm in this area (central MA).
NotMax
@germy
Guessing you are referring to CFL bulbs? Fluorescent lighting (the tubes) dates back to the 1930s.
AliceBlue
@zhena gogolia: I’m with both of you. Warren doesn’t have that don’t-fuck-with-me mean girl streak that Harris has, which I think is necessary, especially on the debate stage.
MattF
@TenguPhule: The alleged losses come in long-term care insurance. That’s an ideal opportunity for a big oopsie.
different-church-lady
If it winds up being Trump v. Warren, we are really going to find out what the true nature of this country is.
Steve in the ATL
@MattF: I love that he manipulates it so it tracks the value of skeeball prize tickets
Major Major Major Major
@jl:
Which he studiously hid from public view. I seem to recall reading he had somebody go to WV and talk about how he was a great athlete.
ETA see also the esteemed NotMax’s comment
Baud
@MattF:
It’s how I plan to pay for Baud!Care!
NotMax
@SFAW
Gold star for the Hudson & Landry reference.
Baud
@different-church-lady:
Aren’t we going to find that out regardless?
SFAW
@NotMax:
Damn, you’re good.
Baud
@MattF:
“We counted on everyone to die suddenly due to climate change.”
germy
@NotMax: Yes, CFL bulbs.
Pardon my redundancy.
Speaking of W.C. Fields, I read a collection of his personal correspondence, and he really hated FDR. Called him “old gumlegs” in letters to his friends. A funny man, but reactionary as hell. I won’t even mention the horrible will he left.
satby
@Kay:
he’s a wonderful communicator of Democratic values. He’s going to be a great surrogate for whoever gets the nomination, and I hope he gets a cabinet position or the VP slot too.
geg6
@feebog:
Her performance in the last debate was what stopped any momentum she had up until then, I think. I was embarrassed for her, much as I was for Uncle Joe. Neither of them covered themselves in glory there.
zhena gogolia
@West of the Rockies:
She’s getting help from parts to the East, I would bet.
Betty Cracker
Trump just retweeted an accusation that the FBI could have stopped the Parkland shooter and women’s gymnastics doctor who molested athletes but they were too busy trying to “take Trump down.” Jesus Tapdancing Christ.
Major Major Major Major
@satby: I would not be hugely surprised to see Buttigieg with a VP spot; I think cabinet is all but guaranteed, assuming the next year or so goes smoothly for him. (And that our nominee wins.)
rikyrah
@germy:
OOOHHHHHHH
jl
@NotMax: @Major Major Major Major: True. but I think true because FDR put a lot of work into it and addressed the problem effectively so GOP couldn’t make an effective attack. At the time, GOP thought it would be a slam dunk effective attack and would finish off FDR.. Obviously other potential lines of attack on similar bogus issues cannot be addressed in the same way, but I think the lesson is that same. There are other ways of addressing baseless attacks.
I’ll try to not put in my usual last blast here about how if some people want to spend their time worrying that no matter what the Democrats do, no matter who is the candidate, the situation is hopeless, and any horseshit the GOP and Trumpsters pump out will work, well it’s a free country. But I guess my attempt failed.
Immanentize
@feebog:
But, despite personal preferences, Warren seems to be favored by, you know, more voters than Harris.
germy
President Warren, Attorney General Harris.
Or President Harris, Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve Warren.
I’d be satisfied either way.
satby
@Steve in the ATL: next time you’re in Mishawaka, let me know. That’s right next door, and I know where all the non-chain restaurants are… mostly not in Mishawaka.
jl
@Baud: IOUs for bags of aluminum cans are not credit default swaps.
Baud
@Immanentize:
Kind of irrelevant right now. Only the votes matter.
zhena gogolia
I hate what they’ve done to YouTube.
Betty Cracker
@satby & @Kay: I’m with y’all on Buttigieg — he’s a rare talent, as PBO observed a couple of years back. Takes one to know one!
Baud
@jl:
It’s part of my Green New Deal.
Steve in the ATL
@satby: will do. As I recall, my fanciest meal was at Panera.
MattF
@Betty Cracker: I suppose he’s expecting his followers will believe him. The Kool-Ade is next.
Immanentize
@Baud: voter preferences oddly turn into votes.
I stated early on that Harris was my fave. But, for elections sake, Warren is great and will suffice.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: IOU’s for cans, we get cash* here in Beautiful Downtown Glendale.
*Getting ready to head to the recycling place to drop off the cans in my car.
SiubhanDuinne
@SFAW:
Ah, my apologies. From your “Nice one” comment I somehow thought you were referencing the magic 27% number.
Sorry, SFAW.
satby
@Steve in the ATL: ?
Sad… And probably one of the better choices.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@zhena gogolia: Still ain’t seeing what you described, but I’ve been moving my videos to Vimeo anyway.
Baud
@Immanentize:
Not 170 days out. I’m fine with almost any of them FWIW.
TenguPhule
@different-church-lady:
I’m afraid we won’t like what we find.
zhena gogolia
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Someone said it’s a thing they’re trying out on selected users. I’m just one of the (un)lucky ones. The thumbnails are now the size of a man’s hand.
WhstsMyNym
@zhena gogolia:
Something in particular?
zhena gogolia
@TenguPhule:
I’m afraid it will be a replay of 2016. Or 1972. But I’ll do what I can to keep that from happening.
TenguPhule
@Betty Cracker:
“ALL CRIME IS CAUSED BY DEEP STATE!” //s
NotMax
@zhena gogolia
As reported, it’s not something everyone is seeing. Dunno if the experiment is based on geography (or maybe ISP) but in any case you might trying clearing your cache AND cookies and see if that bumps you back into the normal view.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@zhena gogolia: Ah, a ‘selective volunteer’ as my dad used to say.
karen marie
@Betty Cracker: Putin’s handing them out like candy?
zhena gogolia
@NotMax:
Oh, God, when someone says “clear your cache and your cookies” I get a rash. I know I’ve done it before but I have no idea how.
feebog
@Immanentize:
In August 2007 Clinton was leading Obama by 15 points. We all know how that turned out.
satby
@Betty Cracker: I met President Obama years before he was even a state senator, while he was an organizer on the South Side. And everyone who met him knew he was going to do amazing things. Now I’ve met another young politician who really seems to have the qualities President Obama did. Coming from very different backgrounds and life experiences, but sharing a decency and call to public service. It’s been a very hopeful thing for me in this political climate.
TenguPhule
Hail Satan.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
Democrats were like “no, sir, you may NOT be our national chair, not quite up to our standards”
Fucking buffoons. So he ran for President, and is competitive.
Baud
@Kay:
Meh. He was fairly unknown then, and never caught on like he’s doing now. I don’t blame Dems because he didn’t make a splash at that time.
TenguPhule
Fox News host compares migrants entering US to Nazis
Obviously we need to cut off the FOX NEWS beer supply.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@jl: Bigly Baud 2020! has fraud for YOU! and YOU! and YOU! Trump’s fraud is weak and easily prosecuted.
karen marie
@germy:
Yeah, I think we should wait to see whether this is “a bigger fraud than Enron.”
TenguPhule
It must be five o clock somewhere.
MattF
@TenguPhule: Richard Kadrey’s ‘Sandman Slim’ novels have been working that vein for a while now.
NotMax
@zhena gogolia
Download and install Ccleaner and let that do it for you. Will also clean out detritus and fragments which any operating system leaves behind.
Some further info (and things to watch for) about it in a comment from last night.
I run it each and every time I close my browser, but that’s much more an affection/habit than a necessity.
TenguPhule
@karen marie: This guy exposed Madoff. He has credibility.
Immanentize
@Baud: The scary historic analysis (at least from my perspective) is that polls this far out are fairly predictive of who the nominee eventually will be. Which would mean Biden. But he isn’t going up and has really not had more than 1/3 of polling numbers.
Even more than in the past (pre-internet) I think poll results have a greater push power. Winner in, winner out; absent a great fall. It was true for Hillary, certainly, in 2015. That said, in 2007 Hillary was pretty much stuck where Biden is now and Obama (in a much smaller field) was just a bit ahead of where Warren (and Sanders maybe) is now. But something dramatic will have to change the Biden/Warren leadership positions IMO.
We will see.
karen marie
@Kay: Buttgieg is a novelty candidate. But for him being gay, we’d still be saying “Buttgieg who?”
bemused
@Betty Cracker:
OMG, every damn thing is all about him. His rabid supporters have the worst character judgement skills on earth.
NotMax
Bad second linky. Fix.
@zhena gogolia
Download and install Ccleaner and let that do it for you. Will also clean out detritus and fragments which any operating system leaves behind.
Some further info (and things to watch for) about it in a comment from last night.
I run it each and every time I close my browser, but that’s much more an affection/habit than a necessity.
Kay
Gross treatment of employees. Used as props for douchebag and his fawning, embarrassing CEO’s. Trump lied the whole time, too. He took credit for the facility, which was planned since 2012. They subjected them to lies and pro-Trump propaganda. Just a pack of lies all around.
TenguPhule
Says the Senator who refuses to talk to her constituents.
Immanentize
@feebog:
Yes, Hillary won the he popular vote in 2008 against Obama as well.
Bill Arnold
@NotMax:
GE woman just denied it on cnbc a minute or two ago. Have no clue. Have 5 GE appliances :-(
satby
@Kay: word. Missed opportunity, though at the time he just wasn’t well known enough.
If you’ve never seen the speech he did when he dropped out of the DNC race, here it is. He would have been an excellent chairperson.
Kay
@karen marie:
I really disagree. I think he’s talented and it’s rare, his ability communicate with people and frame Democratic priorities well and clearly and in a way people don’t find off-putting although he’s obviously smart. I don’t think there are a lot of people who can do that.
TenguPhule
Steve King vs Liz Cheney on Twitter.
I am rooting for casualties.
TenguPhule
House Democrats better get a fucking clue. OF COURSE he’s going to claim privilege. His whole MO is “FUCK YOU, MAKE ME.”
TenguPhule
Lib Dems urged to back Corbyn as interim PM to stop no-deal Brexit
Time for the British Green Lantern party to put up or shut up.
Kay
@satby:
My husband went to some thing in Columbus- not partisan – elections official related- and they have a dinner for the Dems and Mayor Pete spoke as a candidate for party chair. He was really impressed. I think Nan Whaley wanted it too – Mayor of Dayton. I personally think mayors are underappreciated in the Democratic Party :)
Probably not anymore.
Steve in the ATL
@TenguPhule: not to mention that there’s no such thing as “executive privilege”
Immanentize
@Bill Arnold:
GE is a mega corporation with huge production and worldwide sales in things like generators, trains, ship engines, jets and yes, appliances. They are not a solo guy running a Ponzi scheme. They are not going to go bankrupt.
debit
@TenguPhule: But how do they make him? Any legal moves would wind up at the DOJ, correct? Not snarking, honestly curious what resources they have.
Immanentize
@Kay: If I ever have any say in any Presidential election, I am following the Kay strategy and empowering Mayors over County Execs.
TenguPhule
@Immanentize:
Famous last words for almost every company that went bankrupt.
Yes they make stuff, but if debts are larger then assets and all of the banks call in their loans because they’re afraid they won’t get all their money….
germy
@karen marie:
The statement in your quote is from a GE spokesperson. A good rule of thumb is to never believe anything a GE spokesperson says.
Immanentize
@Steve in the ATL:
There is, recognized by the Supreme Court at least, to very narrowly apply to direct policy discussions between a sitting President and then-current officials.
germy
@Immanentize: Do they still make appliances or do they simply slap their logo on appliances made cheaply in China?
Immanentize
@TenguPhule:
Then they get bailed out by the federal government which maintains huge contracts with GE.
Steve in the ATL
@Immanentize: which is of course unrelated to every instance the trump admin has cited it, right?
karen marie
@Kay: All of that is true but I stand by my original comment.
Miss Bianca
@feebog: @zhena gogolia: Does it occur to neither one of you to wonder why, if Warren is allegedly so weak a candidate, and Harris is allegedly so strong a candidate,their relative positions aren’t reversed? Maybe this whole “Indian DNA” thing is actually far less of an issue to potential Democratic voters than it is to the internet left.
karen marie
@germy: I fully understand where the quote came from – I actually read the entire article. There are big problems with comparing whatever it is that GE did to what Enron did. And regardless of what’s his name’s role in outing Madoff, one can’t be too skeptical of allegations made where motivations of an individual — and the motivations of the people motivating that individual — are unknown.
satby
@karen marie: so he’s a novelty candidate only because he’s gay? Being gay is a novelty?
Immanentize
@germy:
Yes (some of both), but who doesn’t do that? Thermador is mostly Bosche, etc.
Bill Arnold
@zhena gogolia:
That is Tulsa Gabbard’s assigned role – soiking K. Harris’s candidacy. Now that KH has seen this, TG should keep a careful watch in all unexpected directions. Only sorta joking.
Immanentize
@satby:
I knew that would quite rightly raise the ire. I was hoping you didn’t see that….
Immanentize
@Miss Bianca:
This!
karen marie
@Miss Bianca: It’s certainly not an issue for me. That Warren kind of blew it by taking the DNA test is small potatoes, because the entire topic is bullshit from the start. If you think “Warren lost a fight with Trump, that means she’s weak,” you’re probably leaning toward the “safe” candidate – Biden – anyway.
TenguPhule
@Immanentize:
Pass a bailout In an election year? With this Congress?
SiubhanDuinne
@Betty Cracker:
Huh WHUT?? Even for Trump and his Trumpkins, that’s a helluva stretch.
karen marie
@satby: In the context of an American presidential election campaign, yes, he is.
nov·el·ty
/ˈnävəltē/
noun
1.
the quality of being new, original, or unusual.
“the novelty of being a married woman wore off”
synonyms: originality, newness, freshness, unconventionality, unfamiliarity, unusualness, difference, imaginativeness, creativity, creativeness, innovativeness, innovation, modernity, modernness, break with tradition
“they liked the novelty of our approach”
Here’s another dictionary — the Cambridge dictionary:
novelty
noun [ C/U ] US /ˈnɑv·əl·ti/
the quality of being new or unusual, or a new or unusual experience
Fair Economist
I love Harris. I love Warren. If Warren is the one that catches on, so be it. That’s why we have a primary.
I’ll enthusiastically support any of the elected or once-elected Dems running, but those two have my heart.
@patrick II:
Yeah, he would be a good ticket-balancer for either, and intensify the scare the Republicans are getting in Texas.
SiubhanDuinne
@Immanentize:
???????
zhena gogolia
@karen marie:
That’s ridiculous.
Immanentize
@TenguPhule:
Why pass anything? It’s not done like that anymore.
germy
TenguPhule
@Immanentize:
I suppose Trump could order money be thrown at GE in defiance of Congress’s power of the purse. I’m sure that will go well for GE about as well as any other industry touched by Trump.
satby
@karen marie: rather than replying in kind to your snotty condescending tone, I’ll use your own source to illustrate the actual “novelty” qualities that may attract voters to someone like Mayor Pete:
But sure, it’s only because he’s gay.
Steve in the ATL
@Miss Bianca: I love both Warren and Harris, but am concerned that Warren would get Hillaryed in the general election much more easily and effectively than Harris would
Immanentize
@Steve in the ATL: Absolutely. Oddly, they don’t claim executive privilege in Congress. They claim they might claim executive privilege at some point which is — wait for it —
Contemptible.
But then the Courts say you can’t pre-claim executive privilege (which is the actual case in controversy) and then they can go back to Congress and the President (only s/he can assert that privilege) claims executive privilege.
Alles Klar, Herr Commisar?
Miss Bianca
@Immanentize: And just to make it clear in case it isn’t, already, Warren is my first choice and Harris is my second – a close second. I would infinitely prefer to see either of them at the top of the ticket than any other candidate. But I don’t claim to have any idea of what Joe/Josie Average Dem Voter is looking for.
Yarrow
@Kay: @satby: @Betty Cracker: I’m with you all on Mayor Pete. I think he’s a genuinely talented politician and Democrats are lucky to have him. I think he frames issues in a slightly different way from many other candidates and that makes some of those issues easier to understand.
For example, he tied the concept of “freedom” to health insurance and said that being able to get health insurance means the freedom to start your own business. The idea of “freedom to” instead of “freedom from” is smart. It also takes the value of “freedom,” which Republicans like to claim they own, and put it squarely in the Democratic value system.
I also like him being in the mix partly because he’s young. It’s eye-opening for some people to see a presidential candidate who did active shooter drills in school and can talk about it from experience. That’s only one example but I think his younger viewpoint is important in a primary with a lot of older candidates.
TenguPhule
@SiubhanDuinne:
Not really. He was doing this throughout 2018 too. Just different crimes at the time.
Immanentize
@Yarrow:
Freedom to versus Freedom from is a brilliant framing.
SiubhanDuinne
@TenguPhule:
You can almost feel the concerned brow-furrowing through the pixels.
Miss Bianca
@Steve in the ATL: Yeah, I share that fear, and I just don’t know whether that fear is grounded or not. When I see Warren gaining traction despite what hand-wringers here see as her Huge! Fucking! Gaffe!, I am encouraged. I also don’t know whether Harris would be tarred with the Scary Angry Black Lady brush and “Hillaryed” that way. Like I said, I have realized that I am clueless and am waiting to see how other Dem voters respond.
Immanentize
@TenguPhule:
Do you see a great uprising against the farmer bailouts of tens of billions of dollars?
Yarrow
@Immanentize: It really is. It might have been the first debate he did that or maybe a town hall. Can’t remember. It stuck with me because it’s excellent framing. He’s a genuinely talented politician.
I’m kind of surprised more Democrats haven’t picked up on that framing. It’s just sitting there waiting to be used. It’s so clear and makes things like “why we need good, affordable health insurance” emotionally easy to grasp plus it’s tied to a bedrock American value.
satby
@Immanentize: Seriously, watch that DNC concession speech from 2017. His description of what we believe as Democrats is inspiring.
I backed Perez because I wasn’t familiar with Mayor Pete at all, having only lived in South Bend a few months. Huge missed opportunity for the party.
Edit: @Yarrow: it’s a theme he touched on even back then.
cmorenc
@Kent:
No, advocating strongly for effective legislation has broad support, and should be front-and-center in all Democratic Presidential candidate’s respective campaigns. But what Sen. Harris proposed was an attempted go-around of legislative roadblocks by Executive Order if she becomes President. The validity of executive orders is grounded in the Administrative ability to issue interpretations of existing law, not pure unbounded fiat (which Trump wants and tries to do, to the extent he can get away with it). What existing legislative basis does Harris claim for such proposed action – how exactly do you close the gun show loophole in existing firearms law when the loophole is written into current law? That is potentially very constitutionally problematic, as she should realize as an ex-state Attorney General, and won’t sit well with many people otherwise favorably supporting gun control legislation.
Immanentize
@Miss Bianca:
And don’t forget, Kamala is a cop. Which in many ways why she is my first pick.
It doesn’t matter who we run, there is no defense against the dark arts that will prevent the all out attack on our candidate Every candidate is vulnerable. Every single one. Each in different ways. But they are all vulnerable. No candidate is uniquely strong. Let the primary voters sort this out. Wisdom of the herd and all.
Immanentize
@Yarrow:
It also answers the gun problem.
Yarrow
@satby: I don’t know if Mayor Pete would have been a better head of the DNC than Perez. He’s certainly a better communicator but there are other aspects to that job. I think Perez is doing a lot of work behind the scenes that doesn’t get a lot of attention but is paying off. But maybe I’m wrong. I like having Mayor Pete out in the presidential race as I commented above so maybe it’s working out better this way.
Yarrow
@Immanentize: Yep. I really wish Dems would take it and run with it.
Immanentize
@satby: I am not sure you are right. If Buttigieg had become DNC chair, he would look as feckless as Perez. Tom is and was an excellent choice to run an impossible organization. PG’s political future would have been ruined if he had gotten the job (and Perez never had any election aspirations as far as I can tell, so he is in no danger that way).
So, don’t run down Perez, hold up Buttigieg.
Baud
@Yarrow:
Hmm.
TenguPhule
@Immanentize:
Farmers have organized themselves into groups with considerable political clout.
Corporate bailouts, especially for something even remotely looking like fraud, are a whole different ball game.
Yarrow
@Baud: The concept has been out there, and of course Obama talked about it way back when, as did most Dems, but I’m talking about using the words. “Freedom to” instead of the tired “freedom from” framing. It feels fresh. It takes a bedrock American value – freedom – and ties it to Democratic values. Freedom to go to shopping malls without bear of being shot. Freedom to start your own business and being able to get health insurance. Freedom TO.
satby
@Baud: yep, he learned from the master.
@Immanentize: not running down Perez. Don’t even know enough about what he’s accomplished other than fucking up by letting Bernie run as a part time Democrat again.
Baud
@Yarrow:
Well, I didn’t do a specific word search. But if it works, it works.
Baud
@satby:
Pete would not have barred Bernie.
debbie
@karen marie:
Did you mean this the way it sounds?
No way is Pete a novelty; he’s an unknown, much like Obama was at first. If you want a novelty candidate, you’re better off looking at Marianne Williamson.
satby
@Baud: we’ll never actually know now.
I think Pete is smart enough to have set the bars high enough where 22 candidates including the woo lady wouldn’t have made it into the debate stage.
debbie
@satby:
Maybe he didn’t stop him from running because he hoped he’d fail all on his own. I’m not sure how democratic or Democratic it would have been to forbid him. The GOP had he same issues with Trump. In the beginning, he was what some might call a novelty candidate.
karen marie
@debbie: Review the definition of “novelty,” then try again.
Baud
@satby:
No, we’ll never know for sure, but I am highly skeptical than he would have so I can’t ding Perez for not doing it.
And any reasonable bar would not have excluded Bernie because he’s unfortunately too popular with enough Dems.
Professor Bigfoot
@satby: Y’know, I had Mayor Pete pegged as “yet another unqualified white guy,” this one just happened to be gay.
I derided him as “Mayo Pete.”
Then I started listening to the guy, and damn my eyes if I’ve not been singularly impressed.
Having not won a statewide race I still don’t consider him qualified for the Oval, but I love the sound of “Harris/Buttigieg.”
satby
@debbie: it’s a party primary and Bernie isn’t a party member. It’d be just fine to exclude him on those grounds. Just like the Republicans should have done something to derail Trump before he completely hijacked their primary. Now they’re stuck on a sinking ship.
satby
@Professor Bigfoot:
One of my two dream tickets.
debbie
@karen marie:
Thanks, my command of the language is more than adequate. “Unusual” seems…odd.
ETA: Maybe your idea of non-novelty is Biden. No thanks.
Professor Bigfoot
@satby: and my other is Warren/Castro.
Either one will cause names to be taken and asses to be kicked.
Immanentize
@Baud:
But in that speech, Obama only uses the “freedom from” framing explicitly. He argued regulation is necessary, but he still poses it as somewhat in opposition to unrestrained “freedom.”
satby
@Baud:
Too popular ≠ member of the party running the primary. I just wish someone would have made that a bottom line requirement.
Immanentize
@Yarrow:
I am with you entirely. It is fresh. It does not play on the Clinton: “The era of big government is over,” field. LIKE
Major Major Major Major
@karen marie:
Now try it with “Obama” and “black” and see how it sounds.
Baud
@satby:
Too late. Once we opened the door in 2016, there isn’t really a way back without alienating the people we need. It sucks.
Immanentize
@satby:
I know you weren’t. My point is, PG would have HAD to make the same play with the same no-one-happy results. So, Buttigieg is better off having list that election. I know I have applied for positions knowing I would not be promoted in order to get my name forward for the next round.
Buttigieg would be the perfect Warren/Harris presidency DNC Chief.
debbie
@Immanentize:
That’s actually a great idea. I hope Warren or Harris keep him in mind.
satby
@Baud: and I don’t think it alienates as many as you imagine. Most of the hardcore Bernouts voted third party or Trump last time, they aren’t regular Democrats. The softer Bernie fans voted blue no matter who. A guy who disses the party as inherently corrupt (unless of course it picks him) shouldn’t be allowed to take those shots from our stages at our events.
Fuckem.
Immanentize
@satby:
Fuck em
Baud
@satby:
Too big a risk for a DNC chair to take. We have to rely on our voters, and then deal with the butthurt, now with knowledge of what’s coming.
PJ
@debbie: Of course he’s a novelty – he’s the first openly gay Presidential candidate, and he’s never held statewide office, or any federal position. (And he was apparently no great shakes as mayor of a small town.) Without those two characteristics, he would never have had all of the love from the press he got at the beginning of this year, and he would be in the ranks of Hickenlooper, Bullock, and Inslee right now.
PJ
@Major Major Major Major: There’s no comparison: Obama was not the first black Presidential candidate, he was the US Senator from Illinois, and he had been on the national radar since the 2004 convention. Buttigieg was unknown by pretty much everyone outside of South Bend before this year.
Major Major Major Major
@PJ: I disagree. In my mind at least, being a first-term Senator is less impressive in a lot of ways than being a popular and re-elected mayor. Regardless, I stand by the statements being equally offensive.
PJ
@Major Major Major Major: Then I guess you’ll be torn between voting for Buttigieg and DeBlasio.
satby
@PJ: he’s pretty well loved as a mayor here. Re-elected with 80% of the vote. And the friends I have here happen to be mostly black and Mexican due to my neighborhood, and they love him as a mayor. Small sample, admittedly, but pretty random.
Immanentize
@PJ:
Offensive and ignorant.
“It’s a wonder you can breathe”
debbie
Here’s M-W’s definition of novelty:
It may be #4 on the list, but the bolded bit is how most people think of the word “novelty” — fleeting, passing fancy, etc. Pete ain’t that at all.
PJ
@satby: I was thinking of his handling of the police department: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/07/why-south-bends-police-department-has-become-a-campaign-issue-for-mayor-pete/
PJ
@Immanentize: How is it offensive and ignorant to acknowledge that the reason a candidate has gotten attention is because they are something new? Buttigieg didn’t get written up for his policy positions (he hasn’t taken any) or his resume – he got attention because he was the openly gay mayor of a small town running a long shot campaign for President.
satby
@PJ: I wasn’t a resident then, and I am perfectly happy to let my neighbors guide my opinion on the subject. And as I said they like the guy. I’ll give greater weight to the people here and actively affected than to a reporter out of DC. but then, I’m from Chicago, and we were just talking this morning how distorted news is about that city.
Yarrow
@PJ: Whatever qualities a candidate might have received attention for in the beginning, they have to have more than that to keep holding attention. Mayor Pete is no longer new–he’s been on the campaign trail for months. If he didn’t resonate with voters he’d be down in the 1% like so many other candidates. It’s clear he’s got something Dem primary voters like.
Immanentize
Dear Moderators. I called PJ a DumMy. Is that a vanned word? Because it is so descriptive. As in Ventriloquist tense.
satby
@PJ: and you’ve outed yourself, because he’s got several policy positions (one plan mentioned in the article you cited BTW) and has a pretty impressive resume (as do a number of our candidates). But you also are claiming it’s mostly because he’s gay.
PJ
@Immanentize: For the first part of the year, Buttigieg made a point of not providing policies: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/14/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-2020-writing-message.html . It looks like he’s changed his position on that since then, but the point is that he wasn’t getting attention for his policies, because he hadn’t stated any.
TS (the original)
@Baud: Old thread – but thanks Baud for finding that – I new President Obama had said it – and often – I was thinking it was too late to go find it.
Immanentize
@PJ:
“For the first part of the year” is doing a shitload of work in your attack.
ETA Please point me to de Blasio’s policies in the “first part of the year.”. Because they are the same people, right?
PJ
@Yarrow: That’s for sure. He’s a very good communicator, and it seems like he can lay out complex issues without alienating voters. So his “storytelling” campaign is working for him.
PJ
@Immanentize: “My attack”? At this point, Buttigieg is probably in 5th or 6th place for the candidate I’d vote for in the primary, and I wish him well, but the fact is there are a lot more candidates with more substance and past performance to go by than him.
Immanentize
@PJ:
Do you now think this is not like the stupidest thing said in is his thread?
I am sure you are a real deal Democrat.
Major Major Major Major
@Immanentize: apparently me thinking winning a Democratic Senate primary in a blue state isn’t as impressive as being a popular mayor means I must be hell-bent on voting for a mayor. It makes sense though given that all the other candidates are first-term senators.
Harris’s AG election is more impressive than her senate election to me as well, fwiw ??♂️
PJ
@Immanentize: Why do you think they are the same people? Buttigieg started getting positive press in January: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/01/the-2020-presidential-race-is-starting-to-get-real.html, while DeBlasio didn’t announce until May, and while there were rumblings to that effect a little earlier, he’s always been treated as a joke candidate by the media (because they know him), on the level of Marianne whatshername.
PJ
@Immanentize: If you ever read anything (and, if you did, that might help you understand what “novel” means), you’d know that that crack was in response to MMMM stating that he was more impressed by a mayor getting reelected (what DeBlasio and Buttigieg have in common) than a first time Senator.
ETA: But trying to explain anything to a maroon is pointless, and I’m done with your foolishness.
Jean
@Betty Cracker: I agree! I’d love to see Buttigieg as VP and debate Pence in the campaign. He’s stand-out smart and rhetorically gifted. I also like his demeanor while responding to criticism. His response to Trump’s personal attack is a good example of that, and that same skill would make him a wonderful surrogate.
Amir Khalid
@Steve in the ATL:
Isn’t “executive privilege” a Watergate-era dodge invented by the Nixon administration?
NotMax
@Amir Khalid
The scope was (mostly but not entirely unsuccessfully) expanded then, but the concept and application goes all the way back to G. Washington, albeit rarely claimed.
SFAW
@SiubhanDuinne:
Thanks for ‘splainin’ to me. I figured there was something I wasn’t getting.
low-tech cyclist
While the Change Research polls may be iffy, a Fox News poll dropped this evening. And while the rest of Fox News is worthless, whoever does their polling is quite good: they’ve got an A rating from 538, and they deserve it.
Anyhow:
Biden 31
Warren 20
Sanders 10 (need a sound effect for this plummet)
Harris 8
everyone else 3 or below
The last three A-rated national polls (Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, Fox News) have had Warren at 21, 19, 20. Sanders is fading, Harris is back down in the single digits, Buttigieg is in the low single digits, and nobody’s emerging from the 2% or less club. I think we can finally say that Warren’s now Biden’s main rival for the nomination, and that means trouble is headed Biden’s way.
mad citizen
@Kent: Very late to this thread–was at my state fair today. Kent summarized a thought I’ve had for awhile in his third paragraph. We all have to fill up time talking about grand policy positions, but assuming the candidate is competent in that area, it will be personality and inspiration that takes them over the top. That person continues to be Kamala for me. I expect her to campaign hard in Iowa.