Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

A Senator Walker would also be an insult to reason, rationality, and decency.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

In my day, never was longer.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Republicans do not pay their debts.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

I really should read my own blog.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Eh, that’s media spin. biden’s health is fine and he’s doing a good job.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

You are here: Home / Politics / Information Warfare / Disinformation Watch: The Open Skies Treaty

Disinformation Watch: The Open Skies Treaty

by | 85 Comments

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Some weird stuff has popped up in my Twitter feed this week. Fortunately, I follow experts who are trying to figure it out.

Steffan Watkins is a Canadian who follows ships and planes via the internet. If you like that sort of thing, I recommend you follow him. He is also very sensitive to disinformation and occasionally given to lectures about it. He is very knowledgeable about the Open Skies Treaty.

The Open Skies Treaty (text, fact sheet) allows the nations that have signed it to fly observation planes over other signatories’ territory. It’s an arms control treaty in that it allows nations to follow up on suspicions or just keep an eye on each other. It says nothing about numbers of weapons. The simple fact that nations are open to each other in this way builds trust, which is needed to negotiate on more difficult subjects.

Every arms control treaty has an information side to it: inspections may be requested, or numbers and types of weapons are reported to the other parties regularly. When the US government abrogates a treaty, we lose a window into what the other side is doing. Of course, they get to see the equivalent of what we’re doing.

The Open Skies Treaty, like all well-made treaties, has very specific provisions for what kinds of aircraft, cameras, and routes may be flown. Arrangements must be made to schedule the flights. For flights over the United States, the airplane must be inspected by Americans, an American is on board, and the photos are shared after the flight. Other nations have the same rights for flights over their territory.

Russia does several flights a year over the US, and we reciprocate with flights over Russia. Watkins follows those flights and others that interest him. Last year and this, he told me when the Russian plane was in my area. I think I saw it last year, but this year it didn’t come close enough to Santa Fe.

This week, Michael Carpenter tweeted that the Russians were up to nefarious activities, FLYING OVER CHICAGO AND TAKING PICTURES! This is precisely the kind of thing Watkins likes to debunk, and he did, with places and times for the Open Skies flight. What is surprising is that Carpenter was in charge of the Open Skies program under President Barack Obama and is associated with the Penn-Biden Center. When he was questioned by Watkins and others knowledgeable about the program, he insulted them and cited an old New York Times article containing Republican propaganda. Republicans don’t like this treaty, along with all other arms control treaties. Watkins debunked that article here.

Tom Moore also got into the act. He is a former professional staff member on the Senate Foreign Relations committee. He didn’t believe what Carpenter was tweeting either.

Here’s Carpenter retweeting his first tweet that got the reaction.

And Moore’s reply

https://twitter.com/PaperMissiles/status/1162564914671751168

https://twitter.com/PaperMissiles/status/1162565720926052352

https://twitter.com/PaperMissiles/status/1162569114738708481

There’s more in the thread with others chiming in.

And this morning,

https://twitter.com/PaperMissiles/status/1162779545747021825

That’s RT, the Russian propaganda network, gloating that Americans are overreacting to an agreed flight. Watkins also identified Russian bots that were pushing Carpenter’s claims.

It’s not clear to me why Carpenter would do this. It’s the kind of thing that can be exploited by Russian propaganda all too easily, and they are going with it. They are both happy to spread Carpenter’s misinformation and to sneer at American overreaction.

So if you run into someone claiming that the Russians are sending spy flights in, now you know how to debunk that. And please do. The disinformation is only going to get worse in the leadup to the election.

Top photo: Defense One

Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner

Reader Interactions

85Comments

  1. 1.

    Ohio Mom

    There is no doubt in my mind that the Russian government means us harm, but they ain’t using airplanes.

    Every time a thought like that crosses my mind, I have a moment of astonishment that I who had little patience for the old Cold War mentality, now worry about what Russia is/could do to our apparently fragile democracy. As Adams says, Through the looking glass.

  2. 2.

    trollhattan

    Ugh. Does the Republican prion disease honor party lines? Somebody is showing symptoms.

  3. 3.

    delk

    It’s the Air and Water Show this weekend in Chicago. As usual planes/jets have been zooming around the skies all week.

  4. 4.

    Hob

    I realize this isn’t supposed to be logical, but… I’m still stuck trying to figure out why surveying “critical infrastructure” would be more of a dangerous aggressive act than surveying military installations. And if the idea is that they’re planning an insidious covert attack, what exactly can you see about the “critical infrastructure” of downtown Chicago from a plane that you can’t see by… being in Chicago?

  7. 7.

    MattF

    My guess: Russians have figured out that poking at the partisan hornet’s nest in the US makes everyone distracted and stupid. Are they actually up to something nefarious? Who knows?

  10. 10.

    Spanky

    @MattF: Of course the Russians are up to something nefarious. But they don’t really need the ost to do it.

    And “critical infrastructure” can be easily surveilled by satellite. Just sayin’.

  11. 11.

    trollhattan

    @Hob:
    IIRC when we were actively engaged in arms reduction (remember when we actually did such things?) we and the Soviets would leave the dismantled weapons out in the open so that they could be observed by surveillance.

    [bothers to check]

    An example.

    Maybe Chicago has some dismantled military hoverboards or something?

  12. 12.

    Another Scott

    Not many, but enough people have something snap after they leave government that one can’t assume that just because they were on the good side while working for Uncle Same that they continue to be on the good side later.

    Thanks for helping to push back against this disinformation and fear-mongering.

    Similarly, I noticed this letter to the editor in my local community newspaper. People who disagree with him just don’t understand, see. Equating AR-15s with M-16s or M-4s is “a deliberate act of lying to the public…”, you see. He then mansplains about magazines and the usual stuff. Yes, he even talks about hog hunting. (groucho-roll-eyes.gif) It’s so tiring, but we can’t give up.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  13. 13.

    Mary G

    Carpenter is in the pay of/being blackmailed by the Russians to stir up shit? I like Tom Moore.

  14. 14.

    Immanentize

    @Hob:
    Hell, Google Street view can tell you all you ever wanted to know — plus a whole lot more! — about critical infrastructure. It is such a fake scary thing.

    ETA. Maybe the Ruskies want to know how much our critical infrastructure has deteriorated and degraded since the 1970s?

  18. 18.

    lumpkin

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Hard to see anything but bad faith here. Most troubling is that this is the sort of thing the gullible fool could pick up on and become obsessed with, leading to another scuttled treaty.

  21. 21.

    mrmoshpotato

    @delk:

    It’s the Air and Water Show this weekend in Chicago. As usual planes/jets have been zooming around the skies all week

    Yup. Thursday and Friday turn-arounds over the lake can be heard a mile away.

    I think the Red Arrows are flying right now.

  25. 25.

    mrmoshpotato

    @trollhattan:

    Maybe Chicago has some dismantled military hoverboards or something?

    They aren’t dismantled. A bunch of companies made them into electric scooters, and we hate them.

    Methinks a fighter jet is nearby.

  29. 29.

    Steffan Watkins

    @trollhattan:

    The thing is, when flying over Chicago, they were not taking any pictures at all. They were not at the right altitude, speed, or even the right area (they were headed to SoCal and Hawaii to conduct the mission). I would like to think Mike made a mistake, but rather than walking it back, he double and tripled down, and then it was too late. If it wasn’t that, I’m very concerned Team Biden is already the DNC pick and this is some sort of “tough on Russia” propaganda they’re polishing.

  30. 30.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Is this basically an aerial version of the old military liaison missions? I have my old SMLM card in a box somewhere in my storage room.

  31. 31.

    Steffan Watkins

    @Hob: No pictures of Chicago were taken, that’s step one to identifying what he stated was total baloney
    They fly at specific heights and speeds, and were not at either. Their mission plan included California, and Hawaii – not Illinois.
    They were just flying from A to B, and Mike jumped at the chance to sling mud from 2016, that has been since debunked. Really bizarre.

  32. 32.

    germy

    Russian Doctors Say They Weren’t Warned Patients Were Nuclear Accident Victims:

    One doctor was reportedly later found to have a radioactive isotope in their muscle tissue.

    FSB agents had doctors sign non-disclosure agreements.#Russia https://t.co/4ilAwG3sy1

    — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) August 16, 2019

    Peak #Russia:Injured men arrived at the hospital naked,wrapped in translucent plastic bags.

    “No one — neither hospital directors, nor Health Ministry officials, nor regional officials or the governor — notified staff that the patients were radioactive.”https://t.co/lkfeDkgtf4

    — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) August 16, 2019

  33. 33.

    Litlebritdifrnt

    So Twitler is considering designating ANTIFA as terrorist organization. Could anyone explain this lunacy to me? ANTIFA has been responsible for *checks notes* 0 deaths. White supremacists have been responsible for 500+. The FBI knows what the problem is but Twitler thinks he knows better and designates ANTIFA? WTF?

  39. 39.

    waratah

    @Another Scott: Beto walked into a gun show in Conway Arkansas today to talk to them about gun laws and to listen to what they had to say. He noticed a sign that said AR -15 $395. Later on Twitter he said the plan he just released you will not be able to buy them at that price, you won’t be able to buy them at all. He later said on Twitter insulin cost $450 a month. The AR-15 $395 for a lifetime. Said it should not be more affordable to kill than to live.

  40. 40.

    Chris Johnson

    @Ohio Mom: Me too. I find it intensely disconcerting to be a lefty Red Dawn type.

    But they came by it honest. Which is to say, dishonest.

  41. 41.

    Jay

    @Litlebritdifrnt:

    Faux News is ranting and lying again, so Wussolinni is mainlining it again.

    Lou Dobbs is encouraging people to run over protestors.Dobbs even accused the demonstrators – who were victims of assault w/ a deadly weapon & attempted murder – of committing assault themselves because they banged on the hood of the truck attempting to run them over. https://t.co/X3EWhOH8Zs— Ana Kasparian (@AnaKasparian) August 16, 2019

  47. 47.

    Jay

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Portland has an over 40 year history of out of town Nazis trying to terrorize their community. The Portland communities also have intergenerational experience in how to run the Nazis out of town.

    Antifia does not exist. There are only anti-facists.

  49. 49.

    Brachiator

    @Another Scott:

    Similarly, I noticed this letter to the editor in my local community newspaper. People who disagree with him just don’t understand, see

    Hmm. Let’s see. Only people who understand guns can comment on gun laws. And if you understand guns, you will love guns and see no need for gun laws.

    Just sad.

  50. 50.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Brachiator:

    And if you understand guns, you will love guns and see no need for gun laws.

    I did not realize until now that I do not exist.

  51. 51.

    trollhattan

    @Cheryl Rofer: @Jay:
    Curiouser and curiouser.

    The national president of the Oath Keepers, a prominent anti-government militia, is urging his members to stay away from a far-right demonstration in downtown Portland Saturday.

    The event is being billed as a rally against antifa. It’s been condemned by Portland’s mayor and a broad coalition of civil rights, law enforcement and business groups as a pretext for violence.

    In a lengthy statement published online, Oath Keepers President Stewart Rhodes said people who attend the event risk associating themselves with white nationalists and could expose themselves to criminal charges for rioting.

    “We do not, and cannot, knowingly associate with known or suspected white nationalists,” he wrote.

    Rhodes said he does not consider the organizers of the event, a Florida man named Joe Biggs and Enrique Tarrio, the leader of the Proud Boys, a fraternity that describes itself as “western chauvinist” and espouses parts of white supremacist ideology, to be white nationalists themselves. But he faulted the men for not getting a permit for their march and failing to take other steps to exclude known white nationalists from joining it.

    “The left in this nation is desperate to paint all conservatives and, especially, all Trump supporters as ‘white nationalists’ to the point of absurdity. Allowing any actual white nationalists into an event where attendees are encouraged to bring Trump flags as well as American flags would be a grave mistake,” Rhodes wrote.

    Rhodes also said he was concerned that angry videos and violent memes the organizers of the march have posted online suggest they want to incite violence and could expose attendees to prosecution for rioting under state and federal law.

    As he urged organizers to cancel their event, an Indiana group that calls itself The American Guard confirmed it plans to attend.

    “Florida Man vacations in far-away state” always leads to hilarity. Or stupidity. Why not both?

    Fun fact: Oregon is an open-carry state.

  52. 52.

    David Fud

    Seems like a stupid question, but did a Russian or other black hat hacker type hijack his twitter account? That might be the easiest explanation, though I don’t know enough to say how plausible that is.`

  53. 53.

    Brachiator

    @Jay:

    ICE detainees are on hunger strike to avoid being returned to India, where their lives would be in danger. Instead of giving them freedom, ICE is doing this…

    Remember, the ICE agents are only following orders.

  58. 58.

    Jay

    @trollhattan:

    A bunch of the “Oath Keeper Cult” are LEO or Military. A key component of anti-facist activity is identifying them, then doxxing them. Actions have consequences.

  61. 61.

    trollhattan

    @Another Scott:
    Their graphics game is ON.

    It seems to be a local strong point–the Providence Park banner quality is the best I’ve seen at any sports venue.

  62. 62.

    Roger Moore

    @Brachiator:

    Only people who understand guns can comment on gun laws. And if you understand guns, you will love guns and see no need for gun laws.

    It’s a bit more direct: believing in restrictions on gun ownership is proof that you don’t understand guns and thus have no right to comment on them.

  63. 63.

    Jay

    @John Revolta:

    Oath Keepers is an anti-government[1][2][3][4][5][a] American far-right[7][6] organization associated with the patriot and militia movements.[8][9] The group describes itself as a non-partisan association of current and former military, police, and first responders, who pledge to fulfill the oath that all military and police take in order to “defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic”.[10] It encourages members – some of whom are current and former U.S. military and law enforcement officers – not to obey orders which they believe would violate the United States Constitution. The organization claims a membership of 35,000 as of 2016.[11]

    At the point in time when you need a vast menu to keep the various flavours, patches and ideologies of your violent reichwing nutjubs straight, it’s easier to lump them all into the catchall category of Nazis.

  66. 66.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Jay:

    it’s easier to lump them all into the catchall category of Nazis.

    Yup. Not fucking around with their manifestos to keep the snowflakes’ feefees from being hurt. Nazi scum.

  68. 68.

    Brachiator

    @Roger Moore:

    It’s a bit more direct: believing in restrictions on gun ownership is proof that you don’t understand guns and thus have no right to comment on them.

    A mere quibble over small difference. But the letter writer insisted on offering his military background bona fides and also had a need to explain about magazines. So he was supposedly speaking from a position of authority or something.

    This reminded me of billions of gun debates which go “You don’t know the difference between a clip and a magazine! You couldn’t possibly have a valid opinion about anything relating to guns!!”

  72. 72.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    @trollhattan: From that OPB article:

    The article describes the violent white supremacists from out of town thusly…

    …the Proud Boys, a fraternity that describes itself as “western chauvinist” and espouses parts of white supremacist ideology

    And the homegrown resistance to these fascist bullies this way…

    …antifa, a far-left, anti-fascist group that has engaged in violence

    WTF? Fuck the mainstream media, and its coddling of white supremacists.

  73. 73.

    Jay

    @trollhattan:

    @chris:

    The Nazis don’t have a permit to protest either. But they were allowed to march, were protected by the PPB, which does not have a good reputation anymore.

    Why are the police coordinating with a violent extremist group that bussed people across state lines to terrorize a city? #Portland #PortlandProtest https://t.co/RsaArdibi5— Caroline Orr (@RVAwonk) August 17, 2019

    The PPB is very quick to deploy violence to arrest non-violent counter protestors, and very slow to arrest violent Nazis who have committed assault and attempted murder.

    At the last protest, they coordinated with the Nazis to allow Nazis with open arrest warrants to attend, with a promise they would not be arrested.

    This time, they arrested a bunch of the most violent Nazis before the protest, some on open warrants dating back 5 years.

  75. 75.

    Jay

    May 2018: In leaked chat logs, the Proud Boys discussed injuring & even killing protesters at rallies. Among other things, they discussed specific weapons & tactics, as well as how to use optics to claim self-defense if they faced charges for the violence.https://t.co/yg73oikyna— Caroline Orr (@RVAwonk) August 17, 2019

  76. 76.

    Yarrow

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I don’t know Carpenter’s motivations and don’t want to guess. Another Scott has the best guess. I assume good will with misjudgment first, will change that if evidence otherwise shows up.

    That’s generous of you. The guy has been given opportunities to walk back his comments and claims. He hasn’t and has doubled down. He easily could have said he was wrong and thanks for the correction and the whole episode goes away. But, no. Can’t do that. And how he’s being quoted approvingly by RT. Something doesn’t doesn’t smell right about the whole thing.

  78. 78.

    Jay

    Cops just told Joey to get in the car and get out of here, are pointing weapons at everyone else.— ROCKY ? CLXI (@rockyhorrorrr) August 17, 2019

    That’s Joey Gibson, leader of Patriot Prayer, who has open arrest warrants for violent assaults being protected from counter protestors by PPB Officers pointing loaded guns at the non- violent counter protestors.

  79. 79.

    Bill Arnold

    @MattF:

    Sounds like Dobbs is dancing right on that red line.

    FWIW Dobbs did not explicitly encourage drivers to run over demonstrators in that video. It’s a stretch to say that he encouraged it. He was mostly going on about demonstrators blocking the the ICE agent’s car, which people like that consider to be a sin. Disappointed to see what is essentially a fabrication, because the fascist right will point it out at length.

  80. 80.

    Bill Arnold

    @Cheryl Rofer:
    I have a map like that drawn by my father. (94th Infantry, started in France, ended in Czechoslovakia west of Prague)
    He could smell Germans; he was the Company nose. (Something about goulash I was told.)
    RIP, but pretty sure he would be OK with today’s disorganized antifascists; amused, disorganization really not his style, but OK with it.

  81. 81.

    Jay

    Holy shit, the NBC reporter on the ground just repeated the lie that antifa was planning on showing up to Portland dressed at MAGA supporters on @msnbc. That was a bullshit troll spread by the far right. @NBCNews fire that shit reporter asap.— Zach D Roberts (@zdroberts) August 17, 2019

  82. 82.

    kindness

    Sounds to me like Obama could have picked a better guy for the job than Carpenter. That’s OK. Obama was still the best president of my lifetime.

    Carpenter just wants us all to piss in our pants. Buddy………

  83. 83.

    Procopius

    @trollhattan:

    … Carpenter was in charge of the Open Skies program under President Barack Obama and is associated with the Penn-Biden Center.

    No crossing party lines. I guess Biden feels a need to try to revive the RussiaRussiaRussia hysteria to distract from… something. Or maybe Biden has nothing to do with it (which I would prefer to believe) and Carpenter is just a loose cannon, as General Flynn became is reported to have become when he was chief of Defense Intelligence Agency.

  84. 84.

    karen marie

    Why did Carpenter do this? I know! I know!

    He’s trying to sell a book but so far no publisher has made an offer. He’s trying to change that.

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